After yesterday’s results I’m wondering if most of us aren’t swimming upstream at AQU. I was especially taken by the crowd in the Red Smith. They made Mr. Maybe a 2-1 favorite against War Dancer, Kaigun, and Mr. Speaker. After the scratch of Great DancerI thought Mr. Maybe would be the value play (see yesterday’s blog). Honestly I was wavering about whether to take him at 5-1, his ML price, but at 2-1 it either meant the crowd had lost it’s collective sanity, or they provided the very definition of a synergy. It turns out all the big money was on a Chad Brown runner that had just won an OC $62K race. When the crowd is that smart, it’s going to be hard to make a buck. In nine races, other than the fluke in the second, the highest odds of the day were 9/2. It was a rarity, but I found no horses that looked like overlays in the entire card.  We’ll give it another try today.

Race 1      1-2-7

Hard to say if this race will produce a price, but the horses that have started do not look particularly superior. Mo d’Amour is a first timer for Todd Pletcher. Uncle Mo’s progeny have run well this year and the workouts look like typical Pletcher. Carella has two fair starts and gets Lasix today. Albertrani is not usually known for early success so the horse can get upgraded today. Rayella was sold for $170K off a $7,500 stud fee. Couple of sharp works suggest she’s in the mix.

Race 2      2-5-6

This has the appearance of a race any of the starters can win. Bird Prince just won for $25K and was claimed by Abby Adsit who is pretty fair with her claims. I’m banking that she keeps the horse rolling. Despite running for modest claiming tags, Aleander has been competitive in almost all his 2015 races and just won a $25K NW3 last out. He’s got two wins and two shows in four starts at AQU. Point Hope came off a short layoff to destroy a field last out. Came back with a good work two weeks ago and should be well recovered from the effort off the layoff.

Race 3      6-8-5

This is a pretty sad group all in all, with only one horse garnering his two wins in less than 10 races. Reach for Yield was grabbed by Michelle Nevin last out and she is 25% first off the claim. He’s got a good turn of foot and a win at the distance. Police Camp has run lifetime best figures in his last two starts and should be one of the horses coming toward the end. His last win was at the $40K level and at his best he’s competitive here.Talbot County is listed at 15-1 ML. He’s been racing at much higher price levels and has a win at $40K this year. Worth a look at the price.

Race 4      1/1A-6-8

She Is My Hero goes for Andrew Lakeman. Of the two she looks the weaker but she did show some speed last out when the blinkers went on and may be on the improve. Stoneheartedlover has been knocking around at this level a while and has the figures to compete with this group. Phocea ran a good second in a race where the jockey lost his whip and gets a big switch to Irad for this trip. Could be the move that puts him over the top. Mohawk Lily has been close without winning in a third of her starts. Goes back to Cancel who rode her well the one time he was up.

Ra ce 5      3-2-7-9

Jumpin Frac Flash made a serious price drop at the Meadowlands after struggling at the $50K level. He’s good enough to compete with this group. In Trouble makes a big drop to the $25K level and if he runs his best he’s got a big shot here. Chang’s Secret has run well in turf sprints and stretches out today. Given his speed he may be a factor. Celebrity Warrior has been running well in NJ and fits the conditions.

Race 6      1-7-3

You Got It has been gelded since his last start and is dropping from MSW to $40K. His first race says he can run with this group and Ru Rod is good with the drop to MCL. Zababa is another dropping from MSW and showed speed first time out. Asmussen is 24% second time out. Littlebitadominic goes second time for Linda Rice and she is usually better on the second start. He adds blinkers today.

Race 7      1-6-8-3

Sea Coast ran lights out first time in the states. If he runs that race he’s the winner. My Cara Mia takes the blinkers off after running a dull race with them on. Prior to that she won an allowance and finished a length and a half out in the Riskaverse. Neck of the Moon dead heated for third in the Ticonderoga and prior to that won at the NW1X level. Figures say he’s competitive. Fresh Feline comes off a bunch of consistently good races at the OC level. He’s run well on the turf and looks to transfer that to the dirt.

Race 8      6-3-7

Sherifa has plenty of speed and cuts back to seven furlongs. He’s run well at AQU and Linda Rice is good off the short layoff. Old Harbor has run well in state bred turf events and looks to make a splash on the dirt. He has a win and a second in two starts on the dirt. He’s definitely one of the classier runners. Saythreehailmary’s has done well at this level and is three of three in the money at AQU.

Race 9      6-8-2-5

Purim Party has shown speed in his last two and at 12-1 is worth a look. Loose Money has closed well in his last two, including a MSW. Should be coming again today. Plundering has been knocking on the door without getting through. One more chance today. River Knight is another with speed who just can’t seem to kick past the winner. As usual, he will be the one to catch.