I’m expecting we’ll be back on the turf today. The fist three races have five horse fields, so I’m not going to spend much time doing analysis.

Race 1      2-3-1

Race 2      4-1-3

Race 3       2-5-3

Race 4       3-1-9

The scratch of Boss Man changes the race slightly. Harpoon was a winner in a $25K starter handicap last out at the Medowlands and returns to the NY circuit today. He’ls not been as happy winning as finishing second, If he’s gotten the winning idea he has a good chance here. The Steve Klesaris entry of Three for Me and Frogman Mel look very strong here. Three for Me has been running well in 2015, not running a bad race until his last one when he checked sharply. Frogman Mel has had a good 2015 and has a win over the AQU turf. Elroi is the best closer in the field and should be doing his best running in the stretch.

Race 5      4-3-1

Governor Malibu comes off a 3rd place finish in the Sleepy Hollow at today’s distance. He’s been improving with each race and gets first Lasix today. Mind Your Biscuits stretches out today after finishing a dull third in a state-bred stakes sprint. This is a much weaker field and he is competitive here. Holdtherightcards has finished midpack in a couple of state-bred MSW and may catch a slice.

Race 6      9-6-1

Indebted comes from Woodbine where he ran evenly in the Toronto Cup. He certainly fits at this level and should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Disco Partner didn’t like the mud in the Allied Forces but when he got back to the turf ran a big one. Looks primed to continue today. Rock Eagle was closing with interest in his last race and given the short number of career starts has lots of room for improvement.

Race 7      The Red Smith Handicap (G3)

One of the principles I attach to turf races is that Grade 1 horses are superior to Grade 2 horses which are superior to Grade 3 horses. The exception to that rule is a three year old that improves late in the season. The questions are, who are the higher level horses, and are there any three year olds that fit the bill. To start, there is only one three year old in the field, Great Dancer. Great Dancer arrived here from Ireland and was given to the care of James Lawrence. Lawrence is not a high percentage trainer and that counts against the horse. However, Great Dancer has improved with each start in the U.S. and ran his best figure since arriving here in the Grade 2 Hill Prince. The fact that the race was on a soft turf is another point in his favor. That may be offset by the fact that he’s never been the distance, and his breeding doesn’t suggest improvement with longer races. The final point in his favor is the jockey, Kenneth Carmouche, who has been as hot as any rider at this meet. For me the bottom line is this. Yes, he’s got a chance, especially considering we haven’t likely seen his best. The 20-1 ML odds indicate you could get a substantial reward for taking the chance. But realistically, you are taking a chance on a horse that hasn’t been proven at the class or the distance and banking on sharp improvement from a trainer that hasn’t been inspiring. I’d feel fine about using the horse in the verticals, and depending on how the odds break maybe a small win bet, but I’ll admit there would be an element of gambling in the bet. War Dancer is a solid Grade 2 horse that has been competitive against the top Grade 1 horses, including Slumber, Twilight Eclipse, Big Blue Kitten, Red Rifle, and Flintshire. He has a couple of positives. First, he likes to run toward the front, and in a race with very little speed, that will be an advantage. Second, he’s proven at the distance. The down side? His last two races look like he’s starting on the down side of his form cycle. He has Bill Mott and top turf rider Jose Lezcano going for him, and he’s had a month to get ready for this one. If he runs back to his spring/summer races, he tops the field. You’ll have to answer the question of whether he’ll regain that form, but you leave him out at your own peril. St. Albans boy looks a cut below the best in here, but he will do well at the distance. Iron Power is mildly dangerous because he has shown a lot of ability to set the early pace. Lately Clement has asked the horse to press, but it really looks like if he is to have any chance, he’ll revert to the front-running ways. Kaigun is another solid Grade 2 horse with plenty of experience with Grade 1 horses. His last two starts at Woodbine returned two nice figures. The Canadian International gave him experience at a mile and a half, an eighth of a mile longer than today’s distance. Mark Casse is a top trainer in Canada or the U.S. Definitely a contender here. Mr. Speaker is another solid Grade 2 horse, and has a victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby at a mile and a quarter. Shug McGaughey finally seems to have the horse on the right path, and off his best he is a deserving favorite. Holiday Star is not outless, but he seems to be a Grade 3 horse at best. His last two Grade 3 wins came in the Sycamore at Keeneland and he looks in the second tier. Mr. Maybe is the X-factor horse. He doesn’t show any graded races, but he did switch to Chad Brown who got him to win immediately at today’s distance. That race was an OC $62K, so he’s got a lot to prove, but he might be worth a thought in the back holes. Charming Kitten is without a graded win in the last two years, and although he gave Holiday Star a run for his money in the Sycamore, he doesn’t inspire me. The race comes down to three groups. The solid Grade 2 horses are Kaigun, Mr. Speaker and War Dancer, and I’ll select them in that order. Great Dancer is the improving three year old, and Mr. Maybe could be any sort now that Chad Brown has taken over the training duties. For me the most likely winner is one of the top three, but the value may lie in the other two.

Race 8      9-3-5

Ogermeister does have two wins, but 7 place finishes. He’s always competitive but often fails in the stretch. Still, should be part of the picture today. Howaboutwe  is coming in off a two race win streak, albeit at FL. He seems to be in top shape and Englehart is a great manager of getting his horses in the right spot. Adirondack Posse moved to the dirt to break his maiden and ran a decent race in his first with winners. Looks to be on the improve and should compete here.

Race 9       5-1-7

Bank Float has been competitive with much better in the recent past and looks like the strength of this field. The Imposter ran well after the claim by Joe Sharp, just missing at a lower level. He stetches out today but shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. Should pass the test today. Chunnel comes off a win at a level down from here but has run well with better in the past.