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Opinions

More On the Doug O’Neill Case

Below is a response I wrote to Bill Finley’s op-ed piece in the Thoroughbred Daily Times. If you want to read Finley’s piece click http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/restricted/pdf/tdn/tdn141011_1.pdf

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I read your piece on the CHRB ruling with regard to Doug O’Neill. I certainly agree with you on one thing – horse racing has not done a great job of dealing with it’s many drug issues. And yes, effectively the penalty phase in the case involving Doug O’Neill and Wind of Bosphorous, on the surface, seems like it must have been done under the big top.

I wrote a blog piece about O’Neill and specifically the Wind of Bosphorus ruling (halveyonhorseracing.com, What To Do With Doug) in which I suggested there is a lot more we don’t know about the whole situation and O’Neill’s reputation as a serial violator. To my surprise I got a call from Glenn Sorgenstein, owner of Goldencents, on Thursday in response to my blog piece. We discussed a number of things – obviously O’Neill, but also the CHRB. That was followed up on Friday by a call from O’Neill himself. We talked for about an hour, mostly about the Wind of Bosphorus case and the Argenta case, but plenty about CHRB as well. The conversation ended with O’Neill agreeing to let me spend a few days with him, both shadowing him at the track (when his suspension is over) and of course discussing Wind of Bosphorus, Argenta and his history of violations. Don’t ask me why – I’m pretty much a nobody, but I’m not looking a gift horse in the mouth, so to speak.

Let me make this clear. I am neither an O’Neill apologist nor an O’Neill decrier. Until I actually got to talk with him, all I knew is what I read. But after talking with him there seems a lot more to the Wind of Bosphorus story than has come out between The NYS Gaming Commission release and O’Neill’s open letters to his owners. That is what I am making my concern – getting a much broader picture of how the Commission and Board decisions unfolded because on the surface the whole thing makes a bad situation for horseracing worse. I want the facts on all sides of this, and I hope that leads me to write the correct characterization.

You bring up some great points – being able to run your stable while suspended essentially negates any real penalty for the owners and any innocent people who work for a trainer. To suggest it’s trivial to the trainer might not be fair.. But there are two underlying realities. First, the “absolute insurers rule” often causes racing commissions to not conduct thorough investigations. If a sample is positive, the trainer is deemed guilty and any inquiry into how the drug got there is not critical. This was Christopher Grove’s argument in his case against the West Virginia Racing Commission. In fact, Grove wasn’t even in the state at the time the violation occurred but the penalty was still upheld by the Commission because, in their opinion, the absolute insurers rule protects the integrity of racing. Second, for most small violations, trainers see the citation as a traffic ticket. Maybe you didn’t roll through that stop sign, but fighting the case is almost always going to be far more expensive and punishing than just paying the ticket, not to mention you leave with the eternal enmity of the Commission if you do decide to fight. At the end of the day, the Commission is always in a position to say, you all knew the rules – the trainer is always responsible for any medication violations. It is at least the one place where guilty until proven innocent is the rule.

In the specific case of Wind of Bosphorus, O’Neill was mostly correct in his assertion that Oxazepam is used to treat recovering alcoholics and irritable bowel syndrome. As I pointed out in my blog piece and on the phone with O’Neill, it would have been more accurate to say that it is used to treat the anxiety associated with alcohol withdrawal. Oxazepam is, in fact, more of a sedative, and is not used on horses in favor of the generic anti-anxiety medication diazepam, which is used pre-castration to calm horses.

I’m no expert in Oxazepam or benzodiazapines, but the first question that came to my mind was, how can a sedative be performance enhancing? Benzodiazepines work by essentially dulling the brain, and if you’ve ever had surgery and were given something like vallium, it doesn’t seem like it would help you in an athletic endeavor. The second was why Oxazepam instead of the more ubiquitous diazapam? As far as I can tell there was no investigation by the Commission that definitively showed how the drug got into Wind of Bosphous’ system, but of course they didn’t have to show how it got there. O’Neill was guilty when the test came back positive. My third question, why in the world would a commission spend money testing for Oxazepam? Does it make sense that, as O’Neill contends, his horse could have eaten contaminated food left on one of the stall floors that Bosphorus was moved to? It doesn’t take a long leap of faith to buy that argument. Does it make sense that a human on Oxazepam peed on the floor and that’s how it got into the system of Wind of Bosphorous? Again, it’s not absurd to consider that. Is it possible there was an incorrect reading and the real offending drug was diazepam, a drug in every vet’s kit by the way? It’s not beyond the realm of possibility, although it doesn’t answer the question of where the diazepam came from.

O’Neill told me that he does not administer medications to his horses, that it is done by his vet. Again, take it for what it is worth, but it is one of the things I’d like to know more about. It’s especially relevant because the violation occurred in New York, not O’Neill’s home base of operations.

O’Neill hired an expert, Dr. Steven Barker to analyze the Commission findings. Dr. Barker said, “Given that there was no opportunity to retest the blood and because the data presented by the Commission’s laboratory regarding the blood cannot and should not be considered evidence, it is my opinion that any discussion of the presence of oxazepam in the blood sample of the horse in question is legally and scientifically unfounded.” Was Dr. Barker biased in favor of O’Neill or against the Gaming Commission? I’m sure going to do what I can to find out, but Barker puts his reputation on the line and fires at the Commission.

And according to O’Neill, the amount of Oxazepam they found was about 1/7 the amount you might find if you tested a human on the drug. If you read Dr. Barker’s affidavit, he seems to be saying the Gaming Commission finding is essentially a pile of horse manure, and in fact they have a long track record of fumbling samples.

I realize you can’t simply take a report by a hired gun, no matter how good that hired gun is, or phone call as gospel. I will talk to all parties that will talk with me before I publish any further findings. But I have enough questions that need to be answered, and there is enough ambiguity staring us in the face, that I’m not ready to call this one cut and dried cheating, or incompetence by the commissions.

I’ll answer the question most people would ask. If O’Neill was innocent, why did he agree to the plea deal? In this case, O’Neill made a strong point to me. The Argenta case cost him $440,000 in legal fees. He said to me, “I know that number by heart because I had to sign the papers setting up my payment schedule.” You can fight city hall, but for the most part they have far more resources available than most trainers. In our justice system, being threatened with a long sentence (and O’Neill was initially threatened with a five year vacation) is a pretty powerful incentive to find a reasonable deal, guilty or not. The idea that O’Neill’s lawyers marched into the CHRB offices and made some sort of threat makes about as much sense as coming up to Don Corleone and telling him you were going to make an offer he couldn’t refuse. Even if O’Neill took them to court, the cost of litigation is very high. You can argue that the absolute insurers rule needs some updating, but at the moment it’s all the commission needs to enforce it’s judgment.

I’m not criticizing your blog piece at all. We need to bring this stuff out in the open. And perhaps regardless of the guilt or innocence of O’Neill, the inconsistency, arbitrariness, and perhaps incompetence of state racing commissions is a topic of critical importance. I’m making it my business to research and publish something that accurately reflects what is going on out there. Racing has problems, and all of us who love the sport are pissed off that stories like this continue to be the yardstick by which racing is measured.

I’d certainly be willing to discuss any of this further if you care to. Just let me know.

Selections

Belmont October 11

Well it’s a great day in Colorado but from what I hear it’s going to be a rainy day at BEL. Hardly seems to be worth posting before I get all the scratches and off the turf races. No analysis except for the feature.

Race 1     5-1-3-7

Race 2     1-5-4-8

Race 3     1-3-4

Race 4     6-10-9-1     OFF TURF    4-10-1A-5

Race 5     9-7-1-5        OFF TURF    7-12-11

Race 6     9- 2-6-3

Race 7    10-3-1-4

Race 8    The Knickerbocker   Grade 3     7-6-4- 2

(From the official site of the NY Knicks) For those of you not familiar with early history in Manhattan, the word knickerbocker traces its origin to the Dutch settlers who came to the New World – and especially to what is now New York – in the 1600s. Specifically, it refers to the style of pants the settlers wore…pants that rolled up just below the knee, which became known as “Knickerbockers”, or “knickers”.

In 1809, legendary author Washington Irving solidified the knickerbocker name in New York lore when he wrote the satiric A History of New York from the Beginning of the World to the End of the Dutch Dynasty under the pseudonym Diedrich Knickerbocker. Later known as Knickerbocker’s History of New York, Irving’s book introduced the word “knickerbocker” to signify a New Yorker who could trace his or her ancestry to the original Dutch settlers.

With the publication of Irving’s book, the Dutch settler “Knickerbocker” character became synonymous with New York City. The city’s most popular symbol of the late 19th and early 20th centuries was “Father Knickerbocker”, complete with cotton wig, three-cornered hat, buckled shoes, and, of course, knickered pants.

At the same time, the term “Knickerbocker” became indelibly linked to anything and everything New York…from Jacob Ruppert’s Knickerbocker Beer to the 1938 Broadway musical Knickerbocker Holiday (which starred Walter Huston and featured the haunting “September Song”) to famed society gossip columnists Cholly Knickerbocker (the nom de plume used by Maury Paul and Igor Cassini) and Suzy Knickerbocker (Aileen Mehle).

  • 1 Plainview – has all the early speed and figures to use it from the inside post. A mile and an eighth seems to stretch the limits of the horse and on a track that is likely to be tiring he may be up against it.
  • 2 Winning Cause – Pletcher trainee beat Plainview in the Grade 3 Cliffhanger but came back in the PTHA President’s Cup to weaken in the stretch and finish third. He’s been close in graded stakes all year and should be contending in the stretch, but I’m looking at others for the win slot.
  • 3 Za Approval – scratch
  • 4 Speaking of Which – won the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes in June and has been given time off by Clement. He ran a good race in the Colonel Bradley Handicap on the yielding turf at Fair Grounds in January. Hasn’t won over the BEL turf yet but he should run well off the bench.
  • 5 Easter Gift – MTO scratch
  • 6 Legendary – Hasn’t run a bad one since rolling in from England, although he hasn’t met a field with graded winners yet. Still, he’s got competitive figures and owns a win on a yielding turf at BEL where he is 2 for 2. Should be perfect at 9 furlongs and at 8-1 ML he’s pretty attractive.
  • 7 Up With the Birds – didn’t disgrace himself in the Arlington Million; prior race was a win in the Grade 2 Nijinsky at WO.  He’s won on the soft turf at Fair Grounds and he’s one for one over the BEL turf. While Malcolm Pierce isn’t well known in New York, he’s a first rate trainer of Graded winners like Aldous Snow and Overheard and stakes winner Deceptive Vision and he’s 26% running in a lot of high quality races in Canada. I like that Pierce engaged regular NY rider Cornelio Velasquez. Up With the Birds is being pointed at the BC Mile and whether he goes depends on how he emerges from this race. On the one hand, Pierce won’t want his runner to leave it all on the track, but he needs to run well enough to justify the trip to California. Lot’s of up side with this horse.
  • 8 Tricky Hat – scratch
  • 9 Mshawish – was running nothing but Group 1 and 2 races overseas, and Pletcher has not tested him since coming to the states until this race.  He’s mostly run at shorter distances – all his wins have come at a mile. You have to trust Pletcher to know his horses, but on paper Mshawish seems a step behind the best in this field.

Race 9         8-12-10-7      OFF TURF    12-4-7

Race 10      5-2-1-11        OFF TURF     2-10-12-11

Selections

Belmont October 10

Race 1      1-7-2-6   (the in-depth analysis race of the day)

There are seven horses entered in this race and I’m pretty sure In the Beat has no chance to win. As for the others, it looks like a very competitive race on paper.

  • 1 M J Plus – has not won a race since March at Parx, but he also hasn’t been anywhere near $12,500 claimers since he was taken by Marcos Zulueta in January 2014. David Jacobson bought the horse in July and took him to SAR where he  finished up the track in a $25K starter allowance. He stepped him up to $50K open claimers at MTH, back down to $25K starter allowance at SAR and an ALW NW1X at BEL a month ago. His best race since Jacobson grabbed him was at 7F, and it seems to be bigger news lately when Jacobson doesn’t win a race. Jacobson apparently doesn’t want to lose the horse, but he needed to find a spot where he could win. This looks like it.
  • 2 Apex – another horse that has been struggling with higher level allowance runners. Dennis Lalman has only 8 starts this year, all with Apex, and clearly since this is the only horse he owns and trains he probably doesn’t want to lose him, but he does need a win. He puts the blinkers on Apex, and frankly that looks like it might be one of those, “I don’t know what to do next, so I’ll try this” sort of moves. You know Lalman has to be serious, and Apex does have competitive numbers. He should have a nice pressing spot and is another one that looks like today just might have to be the day.
  • 3 Moe Man – has not won at the distance and is a pedestrian 7 for 49 overall. He was claimed 5 weeks ago by Gary Contessa and raced once at a $25K tag where he finished a close neck behind Springcourt. I think he would have to improve a bit to beat this bunch so it’s a lesser award at best.
  • 4 Noble Doss – was claimed last out by Linda Rice for $12,500. He’s got one win this year, a $12,500 claimer at BEL in June. He’s got a little early lick, but I think he’d have to run a career best to beat this field.
  • 5 In the Beat – Doesn’t look in good condition, doesn’t have a high win percentage, and doesn’t look fast enough.
  • 6 Springcourt – another Contessa claim. He won his last out and is 1 for 2 at the distance. He’s had a lot of starts – 10 – this year but he’s run very competitively in his last seven races. A little bit of a tendency to finish second. I’m not excited about his closing running style, especially since there isn’t any natural front-runner here. He fits at this level, but he certainly looks no better than a few of the others.
  • 7 Box Office – A good prospect to set the early pace. He hasn’t been at a level this low since last September at MTH. His mile race on July 10 at Belmont gives him the best pace figure in the field. His last race may have been his worst, but it seemed like a mile and an eighth is a little beyond his comfort zone. Jason Servis is having a pretty fair meet, and a pretty good year. He would be the main threat to M J Plus.

Race 2

  • 1 Go Olivia Go – Claimed by Jacobson last out and lately that seems to be enough of a reason to back the horse. Jacobson gave the horse most of a month off before he brought her back for a workout. Given that she had 21 races in 2013 and 15 races already in 2014 it’s no wonder she needed a break. She won for $16K at SAR, so it is a little concerning that Jacobson brings her back for $12,500, but if she does win and get claimed he’d still make a little bit of money, Not a sure thing but solid in this field.
  • 5 Discreet Force – has the best last out pace figure, and has one win at the distance. She’s also got two wins in four tries at BEL. There are a couple of negatives. She has long breaks between races which shouts physical problems. Same with her workouts. Gary Gullo is very spare about putting her on the track. Obviously she runs well fresh – that’s all she does. You have to make up your mind – sore legged gamble or a fast filly ready to run.
  • 3 Wild Kay – unless the track starts playing differently early speed types are not holding up well. She was claimed for today’s claiming price last out by Patricia Farro. Farro comes from a horseracing family and runs mostly in New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic. She has a fair winning percentage and won on Wednesday at BEL with Amber Morning. Wild Kay fits here but has to run the right race.
  • 2 Precious Franca – another last out claim, this one by Mitchell Friedman. Although she’s dropping to her lowest level in quite a while, she seems like she would need to run her best race to beat this field.

Race 3

You ever have a race where your first thought is, nobody really looks like they can win this race? This one might be one of those.

  • 2 Recanted – given the 1 for 20something (and 50something) horses in the field, I’m going to look for a horse that is not yet a confirmed NW2L runner and with at least some up side. Recanted was given to David Jacobson after being out west in the Doug O’Neill barn earlier this year. He ran his best race since being in America for Jacobson although it was at a sprint distance on the turf. He was grabbed out of that race by John Kimmel, who isn’t known for his claiming prowess but has had a decent BEL meeting. It’s a little bit of a stretch to bet him in a route race on the dirt but he is well bred for the distance and the surface.
  • 1 Grandpa Len – one of the horses that seems to be more in-the-money than in the winner’s circle. This is a pretty weak field even for a $25K NW2L so it isn’t inconceivable for this one to win. He was claimed two back by Assaf Ronen and that is not necessarily a positive sign, but he should be fine at the distance.
  • 7 Cosmic Coincidence – ran pretty well in the mud at SAR  for trainer Gary Gullo who claimed him two back. That was his first try at a route in a while, and he led to the stretch call. He laid off a month after that race and has had only one workout in prep for this. A little ambiguous but competitive in this field
  • 6 Goodnewsisnonews – Listed as the ML favorite for Asmussen. His only win was at this distance on an off the turfer at MTH. Honestly off his best race he’s the fastest horse in here, but 2-1 on the first flash might be the highest odds you’ll see.

Race 4

  • 7 Hail Cornell – has two starts for Bill Mott and we all know Mott starters usually need a race or two. He drops this one from MSW down to claimers, and that can potentially be seen as a negative, but she is a homebred and the purse plus the claiming price gives Laue Ranch a decent chunk of change. Fastest pace figure of the starters.
  • 1 Arctic Ocean – showed a little bit of speed last out on the dirt and probably benefits from the inside post. Ortiz gets back aboard. With the right ride could sneak through in the stretch.
  • 10 Kibble – despite the speculation that she’ll be the front runner, it could be difficult from the 10 post. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has been ice cold at BEL but he is too good to be shut out much longer. She is well bred for the distance but is suspect on the turf.
  • 6 Ready Now – First timer is well bred for the turf and distance and Alan Goldberg is fair with debut runners.

Race 5

  •  9 Matching Skies – starts from the far outside post and jumps up a bit for Abigail Adsit, but was only two and a half behind the big ML favorite E Z  Passer in her last. In that race she dropped back steadily after the start and made a sustained 5 wide move into the stretch. She actually took the lead at one point but was outfinished by E Z Passer who came up the rail. She’s shown a little more speed in past races and perhaps Johnny V will keep her a bit closer today.
  • 2 What the Frost – last race was her first back in two months and she ran evenly around the track. Hasn’t gotten a win in 2014 but the claim by Contessa two back might make the difference. Should be a bit of a price too.
  • 6 E Z Passer – had a perfect trip last time and is riding a four race winning streak. Switches to the Diane Balsamo barn after the claim last race. The trainer is a slick 6 for 26 in 2014. She will be a short price today and it might be worth betting for the 9 to turn the tables.
  • 1 My Tee Time – has to gun from the 1 post but is by far the best early speed in the race. Speed has not been doing great the last two days, and 7 furlongs might be the far edge of her ability.

Race 6

I thought this was an extremely competitive affair with at least six solid contenders.

  • 3 Hard Enough – Michael Trombetta claimed him for $25K two back and jumped him into a state-bred stakes at Laurel. He ran respectably – in fact he’s run respectably all year, winning the Grade 3 Red Bank at today’s distance. He’s probably best at a mile and $40K claimers should be right in his wheelhouse.
  • 7 Treasury Devil – Claimed by RuRod at SAR and ran twice more at the Spa. Switches back to Johnny V from Arroyo and that should help his chances. Certainly fits with this group and on his best should contend for the win.
  • 10 McIlroy – hasn’t been in the claiming ranks since a victory at BEL in June. He lost to a strong group of OC$62 horses last out but didn’t disgrace himself. The negative – he will have competition on the front end if he decides to push the pace. He is making a pretty good drop in class level, and we’ll see if that is enough to make him stay for the whole race.
  • 12 Special Skills – has been consistent this year. Was probably a bit too ambitiously placed last race and should fare better with this group.

Race 7

  • 2 Official – Jacobson runner has been off for over two months – in fact Jacobson didn’t put her on the track between July 23 and September 2. It’s a bit of a chance putting her on top, but Jacobson  is one of the best with this move.
  • 3 Given Fire – is a speedy sort that should get some push up front from Manhattan Gin. Given her past performances, 7F looks like it might be too long for her. Last out she set a good pace on the yielding turf and almost held on. If she sets reasonable fractions at the shorter distance she may hold on today.
  • 10 Aesthetique – sounds like one of the X-Men. She’s in a much better spot today, off the rail, back to 6F, and not on the yielding turf. Like her running style but needs to sustain the closing kick to win today.
  • 6 Skye Saratoga – has been over her head since breaking her maiden last year at AQU. Hasn’t been on the turf yet, but Albertrani has been training well.

Race 8

  • 6 Strong Impact – goes in for the price in this OC NW2X. Has almost a 25% win rate and has had good success on the BEL turf. Hasn’t been this low in quite a while. Had a little bit of trouble in his last race and if he stays clear this could be a winning spot.
  • 2 Dowse’s Beach – Clement trainee has not run a bad one in a while. Has competitive figures and should be able to stay clear on the outside.
  • 8 Isn’tlovejustgrand – was wide last out but finished with energy. Has won three times on the BEL turf and has been consistent in 2014.
  • 9 Pretension – Early speed sort was claimed out of his last two, most recently by Gary Contessa. Most of his races are on the dirt, but he does have a win in four tries on the BEL turf.

Race 9

  • 1 Congress Park – ran a good learning race last out when she took the lead in the stretch but was passed by Ack Nightly. Bruce Brown and Javier have been a successful duo.
  • 4 Ten Penny Princess – Total air ball in a state bred stakes at FL on the dirt. Prior race was a strong effort on the turf where she is back today. Kelly Breen is 23% with two year olds
  • 12 Fourstar Crook – first time starter for Chad Brown. He’s always dangerous in these races.
  • 8 Loon River – looking to break her maiden in her fourth start. Passed a spot on Thursday for this one. If experience counts, this one is a contender.
Selections

Belmont October 9

Race 1

  • 3 Radamel – showed some speed in a SAR sprint where he was bet positively. Switched trainers since that one to David Cannizzo. Has a steady series of works for race 2.
  • 2 Richie’s Rich – Ran a good learning race first time out at SAR where he was bet down to favoritism. Didn’t have the best of trips but should improve today.
  • 1 Ackeret – first timer for Rudy Rodriguez who has been hot at the fall meet. Good series of workouts for this debut.
  • 7 Whateveryouwant – first two starts nothing to get excited about, but does drop from better MSW to the claiming ranks.

Race 2

  • 11 Flamingo Lane – Abigail Adsit trainee is a short neck away from five wins in a row. She won her last and no reason not to continue today. Fastest figures but has to overcome the outside post.
  • 2 Edie – Jumps up a little for Chris Englehart but has been consistent since May. Is 6 for 6 in the money at BEL.
  • 4 Lady’s Lunar Luck – Hasn’t won this year but has been competitive. More likely to finish in the money than win.
  • 9 Arsenal – 7 year old mare has only 18 starts, indicating some physical issues. but when she starts she runs competitively.

Race 3

  • 4 Simple Love – Kentucky bred started his career in Ireland but returned to the states this summer. Has run well with the addition of Lasix and fits with this crew.
  • 3 Radiant Cut – didn’t start well last out but in her prior three races was competitive. Both turf wins have come at BEL.
  • 6 Medalglia d’Argento – has turned into a closer since claimed by Linda Rice three races ago. Her last she stayed a little closer to the pace but was no match for Snowbell. Perhaps Rice has figured out how to get the best out of her.
  • 5 Blisstering Strike – despite being bumped her last grass sprint at Laurel she ran pretty well. Better on grass for sure.

Race 4

  • 4 Horatio – won a NW1X at BEL in June but hasn’t had a closing kick since then. Given his ten starts in 2014 he probably need the 9 weeks rest.
  • 5 Glory Game – Woke up last race where he pressed and stayed on evenly throughout the race. At 15-1 ML might be worth a look.
  • 1/1a Reggie D/Decesion Point – Neither runner has shown a lot of interest in winning but they are good prospects to finish in the money
  • 2 Hurry Up Alan – One of the few Jacobson hasn’t gotten to win lately. However, he owns the horse so he may have greater incentive today. Drops to his lowest level this year.

Race 5

  • 4 Dreaming of Danny – has been claimed his last two outings. Showed good speed in his latest, although it was in the slop. Back on the turf today; he is one of two at BEL
  • 8 Royal Blessing – Makes a big drop for Albertrani and clearly he needed the relief. Has been running longer but does show two wins at the distance.
  • 1/1a Dubai Time/Back Away – Dubai Time has been right there at the wire in his last two starts. Back Away has won a third of his races and nearly half of his turf starts. Given Saez is named on both, one or the other should scratch
  • 6 Summer Sunset – should have the lead although this is his first time on the turf. We’ll see how long he lasts.

Race 6

  • 8 Alexandrie – Went off as the favorite for Pletcher. Took the lead but gave it up badly. Pletcher has been working the horse lights out on the turf and gives her a first race on it today. Will be bet again but has great prospects.
  • 7 Perfect Freud – has two starts and showed improvement in her last. One of the few with turf experience.
  • 6 Stolen Victory – had all sorts of excuses in the mud last out. Looking for her to run a much improved race today.
  • 3 Miss Matzoball – has the best pace figure of the horses that have started. Improved substantially last out with Lasix and if she stays on that track could be the winner.

Race 7

  • 2 Here’s Zealicious – horse is relatively hidden in this race. Was claimed by Contessa two back and he immediately jumped her up over her head. Her next was on a sloppy racetrack and she stumbled and made the death move to rush up into the race. With a clean start she could win this one at nice odds.
  • 7 Run a Dubb Dubb – Rice trainee has been off since May but before that was something of a win machine.
  • 1 Bridgetta – has been competitive in her last five races and is 8 of 10 first or second at BEL
  • 5 Irish Sweepstakes – Hennig has been having a good meeting so far and off her best she is competitive with these.

Race 8

  • 3 Red Vine – in his last 10 has only finished out of the money once. Competitive with these.
  • 9 Can’thelpbelieving – consistent runner should be closing in the stretch.
  • 7 Joe’s Blazing Aaron – beat a few in this field going wire to wire. Will try the same tactic today.
  • 4 Arctic North – fastest last race pace figure. Hasn’t won this year but usually gives a good accounting

Race 9

  • 10 Tom’s Vision – seven start maiden has the best figures of any of the previous starters. Dropping from MSW so looking for a better effort today.
  • 3 The Frood Dude – last race was his best.
  • 11 Wishandaprayer – did not finish well in the mud last out but the turf will be firm today. Has speed and may not get caught.
  • 2 Spark to Ignite – another one dropping from MSW to claimers. Last was not memorable but was on the dirt. Before that ran well on the turf. The combination of surface and class drop should give him a fighting chance.
Selections

Belmont October 8

My complaint the past couple of Wednesdays has been the quality of the races. Not today. There are plenty of competitive races on the card.

Race 1

  • 4 Talladega – Trainer Ed Barker has quietly had a nice year from very limited starts. He looks like a trainer who has plenty of time to spend with his charges. Talledega has run three consistent races but has come up short each time. He cuts back to a mile today and in this field he has good prospects. Irad Ortiz stays aboard.
  • 11 Forever Utopia – has 12 starts and 8 seconds. That is not an encouraging statistic, but he did just miss in his last after leading until the shadow of the wire. You have to respect his ability but the seconditis could be endemic.
  • 8 Starago – did not disgrace himself in his first start and should be much more prepared for this start

Race 2

  • 1a Screenplay – Speedster toted 130 pounds in his last at MTH and not unexpectedly faded in the stretch. He has won a third of his turf starts. He can handle the mile and an eighth but has to worry about Southern Proper on the front end. Only a tepid favorite for me.
  • 7 Abilio – Rudy Rodriguez claimed this runner from David Jacobson last out. He’s coming off a win in that race, his first in two years. No reason he can’t keep it rolling for Ru Rod today.
  • 4 Skiffs Brewmeister – last seemed a bit beyond his comfort zone considering he had no stretch kick. Has had a good 2014 and is by far the best closer in the race. Has a big chance today.
  • 5 Days Ride – won his last at SAR where he was claimed by Steve Klesaris. Should have a nice position down the backstretch. One of a bunch with competitive figures.

Race 3

  • 4 Ferzetti – two starts with two seconds at DEL. Stretches out to 6F but is the fastest of the horses that have previously started.
  • 6 Riddle Me This – first start was on the turf early in the SAR meeting. Third place finisher Partisan Politics ran respectably in the Miss Grillo and 6th place finished Hooligan won a restricted stakes at Laurel. Has a good set of works leading up to this one. Puts the blinkers on for Rodriguez.
  • 1 Coral Beach – showed a mild closing kick in her SAR debut and drops into a MCL today. Pletcher decided to not use one of his main jocks and gives his exercise rider Kari Francois her first chance. It’s a big task from the rail but maybe the 10 pound bug makes a difference.
  • 9 May Flowers – not a great effort in the mud last out. Puts the blinkers on today and has a nice 5F drill ten days ago. Englehart not known for 2nd time maidens but this one could be the exception.

Race 4

  • 2 Premium – After three races in the U.S. McLaughlin adds Lasix. Looks like she will prefer the longer distance. Workouts suggest she’s ready for this one.
  • 4 Clearbrook – In ten races she really hasn’t run a bad one. Lately has been showing speed. Second last was a respectable run against males. Switches from Mott to Brown and that may be enough to put her over the top.
  • 8 Little Journey – three straight graded stakes and three respectable runs. The other Chad Brown trainee puts the blinkers on.
  • 3 Sabbatical – winner of a NW1X in her first lifetime turf start. She may have found a home on the grass.

Race 5

  • 6 Boca Babe – has two off the turf starts, one where she was a 21+ length winner. Drops down to a $25K NW2. If she runs back to her maiden she should romp today.
  • 9 Benny’s Bullet – lots of early speed and looks like she is best meant for the sprint distances. Has to overcome her tendency to back up near the wire.
  • 3 Amber Morning – been knocking on the door lately but with 15 starts may be more likely for a smaller piece.
  • 4 Calm Reply – Interesting runner comes off two five furlong sprints at DEL. Has an outside chance.

Race 6

  • 6 Buddy the Elf – Switches from the turf to the main but his breeding says he’ll like the dirt. Nice work ten days ago.
  • 5 Got Winged – coming out of the same race as Buddy the Elf. Was very wide around the turn but stayed on in the stretch. Looking for  improvement on the dirt today.
  • 2 Mr Harlan – first timer for Lisa Lewis has a short but impressive work tab. Don’t care for the rail post, but Harlan’s Holiday has had some impressive two year old runners.
  • 10 B.B.’s Remingon – has a nice series of workouts for his debut including a quick 35 2/5. Contessa not known for success with firsters but I like this one to be competitive.

Race 7

  • 1 Elroi – had a poor start  but the jockey did the right thing and didn’t rush him up. Closed a lot of lengths to only lose by two. Like his chances today.
  • 3 Analysis – hasn’t run a bad race in 2014. Competitive figures.
  • 11 Jonrah – Still looking for his first win since being claimed by Contessa. He’s offered for the $40K price in this OC event which makes me wonder if Contessa isn’t ready to give up on the horse. Still did beat a similar field at BEL in June.
  • 2 Mobridge – has a good closing kick but there isn’t a lot of good speed in the race to set it up for him. Has a chance in a wide open race.

Race 8

  • 1 Bay of Plenty – two powerful wins in a row, top figure in the race. However, is coming off a five month layoff and that is at least a little cause for concern. Has worked steady for the return.
  • 6 Vinceremos – laid up after getting trounced in the Kentucky Derby and the Blue Grass. Was a force in Florida earlier in the year and could return as any kind. My instinct says give him a race, but with Pletcher training, hard to leave him out
  • 8 Saint Vigeur – was a useful stakes horse in 2013 and comes back today after almost a year off. Chad Brown is 23% with this move but his figures may have to improve to beat this bunch.
  • 5 Crushing – Came off a year layoff to win an OC at Parx then moved to Delaware where he was trounced in an OC$65. However before that he was very consistent. Six year old has only 21 starts so probably some physical issues to contend with, but Chad Brown wouldn’t start him if he wasn’t ready.

Race 9

  • 5 Mary’s in Utopia – winner of the coin flip for who gets put on top in this race. After 10 starts she finally gets moved to the grass and only misses a neck. I’m going to assume that’s where she should have been all along. Trainer is 1 for 26 this year, so that is cause for concern, but the odds should be right.
  • 6 Maura’s Pass – Drops into a MCL for Clement. One of many with a competitive figure.
  • 7 Lovely Lanie – Another dropping from MSW. Actually showed some speed last time and held well in the stretch. Should also be a pretty good price.
  • 12 Laura Can Disco – showed good speed last out but ran into mudlark Penella. Gotta think if she duplicates that run on the turf she has more than a fair chance.
Opinions

What To Do With Doug

For anyone who hasn’t already heard the story, Doug O’Neill was suspended 45 days by the New York State Gaming Commission for a positive test for the drug Oxazepam, detected in a post-race sample taken from Wind of Bosphorus on June 2, 2013. Initially O’Neill had negotiated that the suspension start the day after the Breeder’s Cup but the Breeder’s Cup officials invoked the “Convicted Trainer Rule” that bans trainers convicted of a medication violation involving a Class 1 or 2 drug in the 12 months preceding the Breeder’s Cup. This means O’Neill cannot be the trainer of record for any horse in the Breeder’s Cup.

In the horseracing world this was big news. O’Neill is a well known trainer who has a Kentucky Derby win with I’ll Have Another, three Breeder’s Cup wins and a slew of major stakes victories. He’s also been cited 19 times for various violations. Regardless of his success, among serious handicappers, fairly or unfairly, he’s generally seen as a trainer who practices better winning through chemistry.

O’Neill fired back in an open letter and at first reading he makes a pretty good anecdotal case that he is a victim of circumstance, at least when it came to Wind of Bosphorus.

Let’s start with the drug itself.  O’Neill said, “When I was notified by the Gaming Commission, I googled the drug, Oxazepam, to see what it was. It is used by humans to help with alcohol withdrawal, and doctors prescribe it for folks with irritable bowel syndrome. I have included information on this drug in this section of the letter.”

O’Neill was not precise in his description. Oxazepam is actually used for the treatment of anxiety, including anxiety associated with alcohol withdrawal. He is correct in noting it is occasionally prescribed for irritable bowel syndrome.

And since trainer O’Neill got his information on Oxazepam from Google, I found that Oxazepam is in a class of drugs called benzodiazepines. It works by slowing activity in the brain to allow for relaxation, and this is why it is often prescribed for alcohol withdrawal patients.  The key word in that sentence is relaxation.

O’Neill also said in the letter, “I can’t possibly imagine that any horse trainer or anybody in the horse business would purposefully, intentionally give a horse this drug. Why in the world would they?”

I have no knowledge of any trainer specifically using Oxazepam to treat horses, but given it’s use as a drug to treat all sorts of anxiety, it doesn’t seem inconceivable that some trainer might try it on a high strung horse. The case for whether or not that horse was Wind of Bosphorus seems circumstantial. As for Oxazepam’s availability, it’s also not inconceivable that there is a recovering alcoholic or two on the grounds taking the drug, even if veterinarians aren’t normally carrying it in their kits.

So O’Neill’s first line of defense is that no trainer would knowingly use Oxazepam, ostensibly because horses are not recovering alcoholics (although some enjoy a cold barley pop after a race), nor do they have irritable bowel syndrome. Unfortunately, it is not beyond a simple line of logic for a non-medical person to conclude that a relaxation drug just might help a horse that is so keyed up before a race he expends most of his energy prior to entering the starting gate. If that conclusion makes no sense, perhaps we can get a respected veterinarian to tell us why not.

O’Neill adds this for emphasis. “Besides the absolute absurdity to think it could possibly be a good idea to give a horse this drug, there is no evidence that I’ve been able to find, of any examples of anyone ever using this drug on a horse to enhance a horse’s performance. And that is what I am suspended for? That is what my reputation is being kicked in the mud over? About giving a horse a drug that helps with alcohol withdrawal and for folks with irritable bowels? I couldn’t make this up if I tried.”

The key in that first sentence is “enhance a horse’s performance.” As O’Neill acknowledges, benzodiazepines (specifically diazepam) are commonly used in veterinary practices, especially prior to surgery, including gelding, to calm a horse. If enhancing a horse’s performance is a euphemism for making it run faster, perhaps O’Neill has a point. But if we include anxiety relief, perhaps it isn’t so absolutely absurd after all. O’Neill’s protestation smacks a bit of having his cake and eating it too.

O’Neill also argues that, “They found traces of this substance (Oxazepam) in the blood of our horse. If I had to guess (and it’s only a guess), it probably has something to do with the fact that Wind Of Bosphorus happened to move three times into three different stalls in the ten days leading up to his race. Many horses would have been in those same stalls over those ten days. Horses eat the feed that falls on the ground. Lots of folks are walking in and out of those barns. Could someone that was in the barn accidently drop something in the feed? I suppose anything is possible. My vet said that a possibility is that a drug in the same “family” of this is diazepam, and that it is in just about every vet’s truck. (It is known to cause false positives for oxazepam) He said vets apply it when horses need to be castrated, and this drug is used in surgery rooms, also. Could a horse that had been recently castrated been in one of those barns- and urinated on the soil of the stall? My vet says absolutely because this has happened with other medications found in such small amounts, and most recently happened in Canada.” 

This is really where the issue turns for me. Wind of Bosphorus was claimed the race before O’Neill took him and was claimed out of the race he won for O’Neill. The horse was moved around and the possibility of cross contamination definitely exists. He’s right that other horses in those barns could have contaminated feed that fell on the ground. And of course given the way horses move around, it doesn’t seem possible to tell whether it makes more sense to blame  someone other than O’Neill. The puzzling thing is why this kind of evidence was unpersuasive to the Gaming Commission.

Beyond that, Dr. Steven Barker reviewed the evidence in the case and concluded, “Given that there was no opportunity to retest the blood and because the data presented by the Commission’s laboratory regarding the blood cannot and should not be considered evidence, it is my opinion that any discussion of the presence of oxazepam in the blood sample of the horse in question is legally and scientifically unfounded.” His full report can be found here http://www.dougoneillracing.com/images/DrBarkerSt.pdf

Ok, Barker may be O’Neill’s witness, but where is the outcry telling us he’s talking out of his hat? Based on Barker’s report, it seems highly probable that if O’Neill took this to court he’d win drawing away. The fact that he didn’t take this one to court is probably as much a reflection of him not wanting to buy a team of legal eagles at $500 an hour and realizing the negotiated penalty was hardly much of a problem. It’s cheaper and easier for O’Neill (and most trainers) to pay the fine, take the days, and go right back to training however he trains.

If anything, this incident continues to underscore the deficiencies in the system around drug testing and assessing guilt. O’Neill was guilty as much under the age old maxim that the trainer is ultimately to blame for anything in a horse’s system as based on the evidence, which on the surface seems ambiguous at best. And it doesn’t hurt that O’Neill has been cited for medication violations 19 times. That many violations – he must be guilty.

Trainers often don’t see a violation citation as the end of the world. You perhaps get some days, pay a relatively small fine, and run horses under your assistant trainer’s name. Given the trainer’s world doesn’t wobble too badly, most of the time it isn’t worth fighting a Commission ruling. While O’Neill has derisively been called “Drug O’Neill” he’s not alone in being repeatedly cited for medication violations. In a 2010 article, the NY Times noted that, “In fact, of the top 20 trainers in the United States by purses won, only two — Christophe Clement and Graham Motion — have never been cited for a medication violation.” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/sports/04racing.html

Despite O’Neill’s reputation, according to the same article, well known trainers such as Jamie Ness (one violation per 217 starts), Bob Baffert (one per 465 starts), John Sadler (one per 478 starts), Bret Calhoun (one per 525 starts) and Kiaran McLaughlin (one per 710 starts) all exceeded O’Neill’s rate of one per 807 starts. And trainers such as Michael Maker, Jerry Hollendorfer, and Steve Asmussen have all been cited at a rate more than one starter per thousand.

What exactly is it about O’Neill that makes him the poster boy for drug use in racing?

A long article from The Horse Fund said, “Clearly the frequency of these violations together with the fact these individuals continue to train while suspended, regardless of the offense, demonstrates how ludicrous the North American system of penalty enforcement and severity is. Time and time again these trainers circumvent the rules and are rewarded for their penchant to cheat with punishments that all too often are in name only; their stables remain open and their horses are permitted to race, typically under the name of a trustworthy assistant.” http://www.horsefund.org/the-chemical-horse-part-9.php

The O’Neill case exposes myriad problems with drugs, testing and racing commission decisions. In an American court you are innocent until proven guilty, but in the court of racing you can be convicted on almost any evidence, solid or circumstantial. Moreover, until O’Neill got slapped with excommunication from this year’s Breeder’s Cup, he seemed to have worked out a pretty good deal that would have kept him off the track for only 45 days during one of the slower parts of the racing season.

O’Neill is not the problem. The system needs an overhaul starting with the consistency of drug rules and penalties from state to state. You can’t tell me we needed a whole year to figure out what happened to Wind of Bosphorus. You can’t tell me that New York couldn’t have figured out if O’Neill was really the culprit if they had complete records on which horses on what medication occupied which stalls at what time. You can’t tell me that the NY State Gaming Commission couldn’t have done what the cycling people did with Lance Armstrong when he protested his innocence – threatened to bury him with a mountain of evidence – after O’Neil came out with his letter that made it seem like he was railroaded, assuming they actually had that evidence. If you have incontrovertible proof that O’Neill is a liar and a cheat, produce it. We can handle it. Instead we are left with Doug O’Neill once again protesting his innocence and the sport being left with the odor of a stall that hasn’t been mucked for a while.

Selections

Belmont October 5

Due to a technical glitch I won’t have time to post the analysis, but I will post selections for each race. Some big upsets yesterday, but I did have 6 out of 11 race winners.

Race 1   2-4

Race 2   6-4-1

Race 3   8-7-3-1

Race 4   2-1-5

Race 5   10-11-4

Race 6    2-12-11

Race 7   5-4-1-7

Race 8   9-4-3-2

Race 9   12-9-3-4

Race 10   5-4-2-1

Race 11  2-4-9-11

Selections

Belmont October 4

Great looking card with a lot of competitive races. With rain in the forecast some of the turf races may wash off and if they do we’ll make some adjustments.

Race 1

The two MTO’s, 10 Royal Posse and 11 The Spotted Wonder, made it in and we’ll make them the top two choices 

  • 6 Macagone – was a close second in this condition last out at SAR. It is a little worrisome that he had a three length lead in the stretch and got caught. He has had success on the BEL turf before. Low profile trainer Michael Wilson manages to entice Castellano to take the ride and that has to be a positive move.
  • 9 Tiger D – is a three start maiden with a lot of upside. He hasn’t run a bad race in his career and owns a win breaking his maiden last out at BEL. Workout since that race should keep him on edge.
  • 3 Iced Over – won at the Spa over a mile and an eighth and has run two gallant thirds in the NW1X classification. Seems lke a mile an a sixteenth would be the right distance for his late kick.
  • 7 Oklahoma Dan – 15 lifetime starts and he seems to battle every time. I think he’ll run his best at today’s distance. Certainly has the numbers to be competitive.

Race 2

  • 2 Dickens – puts the blinkers on for low profile trainer Roy Lorman. Dropped into a MCL last time after trying MSW in Florida over the winter. After a five month layoff he certainly needed his last. Should improve today.
  • 3 Smoke Police – Chad Brown trainee looked good in his maiden event at SAR but faltered badly in his last MSW after being bumped and checked. Expecting him to run back to his first race form.
  • 6 Heading to Boca – has been off since being claimed by Michelle Nevin last January. Hasn’t shown a lot of speed and that may hurt him today. Steady works for the return. May need a race to show his best.
  • 5 Ireland’s Eye – had a little trouble at the start last out, rushed up, and gradually gave way. Looks like he can go turf or dirt. Gets a big weight break today.

Race 3

There are no MTO’s in this off the turf event but there are a lot of horses that potentially move up. In fact the 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 all have superior mud ratings. This race looks a little messy to me and unless you have a strong opinion, play carefully.

  • 6 Consumer Credit – gets the nod in a very tough race to handicap. The Chad Brown runner ran into traffic when looking to close the opening weekend at BEL. That race had a good maiden field. She should be able to stay clear from the 6 post and put herself in the right position to win.
  • 7 Lana’s Fortune – Was in the same race as the 6 and was making some headway in the stretch. Englehart has been having a competent season and gave the filly two decent maintenance works for the return.
  • 4 Tela – ran well at Delaware last out when she was well clear of the third place horse. I like her chances today.
  • 8 Nellinger – 20-1 ML for Contessa off two sprints at MTH  including the Colleen. She won’t see those kind of fractions today and should outrun her odds.

Race 4

  • 5 Ever Rider – Excels at the longer distances and just missed to Cary Street in his last. Has been showing speed  but probably will cede the front to Village Warrior. Has the class and the bottom to beat this field.
  • 1 Cary Street – Winner of the Greenwood Cup at Parx last out in pretty decent time. Has been running well in 2014 and deserves a chance to race with the big boys.
  • 2 Awesome Vision – hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle this year but has been competitive in state-bred stakes.  Should have no issue with the distance and may get a piece of the pie.

Race 5

  • 6 Lunar Tales – claimed last out by Contessa and is immediately jumped up to a $50K starter allowance. Has never been on the dirt much less the wet dirt, but does have the wet track rating to be successful. I figure Contessa has him wound up and can’t afford to pass the race.
  • 3 Celebrated Talent – Since this is now off the turf we need to look at the MTO’s. He ran a good race last out and was taken by Linda Rice. Has a freakishly high wet track rating. Looks very tough in here.
  • 8 Ghareeb – another with an outstanding wet track rating. Last race figure suggests he is in top condition. Should be winging on the front end and if the track is playing to the front his chances are upped consideratbly.
  • 9 Giant Fox. The other MTO. Prefers closing but does have a 2 third place finishes in his two wet track races.

Race 6     The Frizette     6-3-1

  • 1 Cavorting – one of the many with a very high mud rating and the winner of the Grade 2 Adirondack. Her breeding suggests she should have no problem with the mile.
  • 2 Wonder Gal – won the state-bred Lynbrook but was no match for Cavorting in the Adirondack. Anohther Tiz Wonderful which means a love for the wet track. Definitely will improve with the added distance.
  • 3 Ring Knocker – Still looking to break her maiden but has run fast enough to be a factor here.
  • 4 Featherbed – broke her maiden by 10 at SAR in August and Pletcher  has kept her working steadily for this start. She was a $330K purchase in the spring, so the connections think a lot of the horse.
  • 5 Cayman Croc – has been the distance but simply doesn’t look fast enough here.
  • 6 Condo Commando – would have been the favorite even without the mud to contend with. Tiz Wonderful progeny are superior in the mud and given her 13+ length victory in the slop at SAR she seems to have inherited the trait. Gotta believe she’ll be winging on the front end and will have to get caught to not win.
  • 7 By the Moon – another with a superior mud rating. Was a distant second to the 6 in the Spinaway and no reason to expect a turnaround today.

Race 7     9-15-14- 1

  • With all the scratches and the race being taken off the turf, the MTO’s look good. Of the originally entered group that stayed, 9 Iron Power has run well on the fast dirt but has some decent wet track breeding. He is certainly in top form. 11 Kiss of Thunder is 1 for 1 on the wet surface.

Race 8      The Champagne    6-1-2-3

  • 1 El Kabeir – Good wet track breeding, Demolished a field in his maiden at SAR. Improving horse that could take them all the way.
  • 2 Upstart – Won the Funny Cide with a nice close last out. Very competitive figures despite them coming in state-bred races.
  • 3 I Spent It – Second in the Hopeful, winner of the Saratoga Special. Wouldn’t be a surprise here at all
  • 4 Holy Boss – Impressive maiden winner at CD but he’s up against some quality animals here. Can’t totally discount but wish he had shown something against this kind.
  • 5 The Truth or Else – broke his maiden on the SAR dirt in pedestrian time. Looks up against it here.
  • 6 Daredevil – runaway winner of his maiden in the mud at Belmont three weeks ago. Pletcher is deadly in these 2 year old stakes.

Race 9     The Hill Prince      1-9-3-5

  • 1 Ring Weekend – has only started three times on the turf but has a win and two seconds. His pressing style should serve him well in this race considering there seems to be a couple of horses that will be dueling on the front end. You have to like the steady improvement he’s shown this summer after pulling up in the Grade 3 Pegasus. Has as much right as any horse to win.
  • 2 Sloane Avenue – Kentucky-bred only has three starts all in England. His two races at lesser tracks were good, but at Newmarket he couldn’t handle the mile and a quarter and the field. He seems a little ambitiously placed in a graded stakes.
  • 3 Blacktype – French bred is 0 for 5 on the turf but has two wins on the synthetic at this distance. Does not show any group races in his pp’s, but Clement is known to get the best out of these shippers, sporting a 31% win rate with shippers to North America. Has been here since mid-August so should be well acclimated. I’m more inclined to figure him for a minor award.
  • 4 Smooth Daddy – has been on the turf all but one of his races. Showed an inclination to run to the front in his last two and I don’t expect that tactic will work in today’s race. Still, he did run second to Ring Weekend in the Saranac and has possibilities for a minor award.
  • 5 Tourist – another horse with front-running tendencies. Set reasonable fractions in the Secretariat and actually beat Ring Weekend in the Saranac. Has run well off of short layoffs previously. Ultimately he may be more useful at a mile, but he certainly can get a mile and an eighth. Franco returns to ride today and he does have a win piloting the horse. At a 3-1 ML he doesn’t look like great value to me and I’m not leaning in his direction for the win.
  • 6 Sheldon – Finished 3rd in the Secretariat but looks like he wants the longer distances. He has finished within four and a half lengths in his last two Grade 1 efforts and could be making up lengths in the stretch.
  • 7 Pumpkin Rumble – really doesn’t look like he has a chance here.
  • 8 Cabral – another French-bred horse that comes over here with his trainer and jockey making me think they might have late October plans for the horse if he runs well today. Doesn’t have any graded races and the couple of races for which he has figures are middling at best, plus he’s 0 for 3 on the turf. I don’t think he’ll be seeing my money.
  • 9 Mr. Speaker – also ran in the Travers on the dirt, but he did come from well out on the good BEL turf to win the Belmont Derby. He’s won graded stakes on synthetic and the turf. Has to be careful not to compromise his chances by going with the solid speed burners. You have to like his chances.
  • 10 Daddy’s Kid – does not seem to have the talent to compete at this level.

Race 10

  • 1 Leroy Jr. – One of the two Chad Brown trainees and it really looks like a two horse race with both of them. Leroy has plenty of speed and has run his best races on the dirt.
  • 4 Groupthink – has been knocking around at this condition for a while but his last was good enough to beat this field. Flip a coin but don’t bet against Chad Brown.
  • 3 Captain Toews – ran into the tough Dyker Beach in his last two. 6 1/2F may extend him the limit of his abilities.
  • 8 Tapidor – broke his maiden at a nice price moving from the turf to the dirt in his last. He was an expensive purchase at the 2012 Keeneland sale. Would not be an unreasonable play here and will be a price.

Race 11

With this race taken off the turf, things could change, but all my original selections are all running except the 2B. 14 Watergate has a high wet track rating and ran well in the slop at SAR first out. 

  • 9 Space Cowboys – showed nice speed in his first out and has a bullet work three days ago. Matt Peebles is 1 for 3 with 2nd start maidens – limited sample but impressive looking percentage.
  • 1A Mark My Style – Cuts back to 6F after contending most of the way at a mile. Looks fastest of the horses that have started; change from Saez to Franco probably positive.
  • 8 Boldlee – closed first out and pressed second out. Three horses came out of his first start to win, and a couple have tried stakes company. A little bit of improvement and he is a maiden no longer.
  • 2/2b – both are first time starters although for different trainers. Chase This Bandit has been working steadily for Linda Rice, B.B.’s Remington has some quick drills for Gary Contessa. Could upset the horses that have some experience but I’d want a little more than 6-1.
Selections

Belmont October 3

Race 1

  • 5 Gold Shield – he was a million dollar purchase at the Keeneland  last September. He went off at low odds in his debut race but ran very poorly, quickly retreating to the back of the pack and not making a notable move at any point in the race. He has returned with two nice workouts, one looking like McGaughey might have been trying to put a little more speed in him. This field is very weak and if he runs to the expectations they had when they purchased him he should beat this field.
  • 1 Wild Dynaformer – We’ll toss his last race in the mud and assume the $350,000 purchase will run much better this time with the addition of Lasix. Albertrani has been strong with 2nd start maidens.
  • 2 Combat Diver – Did not like the BEL turf first out but has been a route. Did have a bullet work five days ago.

Race 2

  • 1/1a – Indian Nobility scratched out of a race yesterday to go in this spot. Jacobson claimed him last out and so far this meet he has been lights out first off the claim. Classic Salsa looks like the weaker of the two. He stumbled at the gate in his last start and was bumped in the start before that, but he did come close to wiring a field at BEL in May.
  • 4 Longfor the City – Ran evenly in his first race back in nearly a year. Clement is 32% 2nd off a long layoff
  • 2/2b – One of the horses should be scratched since Ortiz is named on both. The stronger of the two looks like Indy Sea. He goes for the hot Rudy Rodriguez barn second off the claim. He has three starts at BEL with a win, second, and third. He ran a good race last out after bobbling at the start and should improve today.
  • 5 Herd Mentality – should be the horse in front and the one to catch.

Race 3

  • 6 Ocean Boulevard – won a NW2L at this price last out and switches to the Violette barn for this one. Has the best last out pace figure.
  • 3 Da Wildcat Girl – another last out winner. Has been having a good 2014 running around this level.
  • 5Little Gidding – Ran poor in a race that was simply too fast early for her to keep up. Should find the pace more to her liking today.
  • 1 Lady Doris – Goes for Abigail Adsit first of the claim at SAR. The race at SAR was a fair run and Adsit adds the blinkers for this trip. Adsit has been doing a respectable job of improving horses and may have one much better than looked last out.

Race 4

  • 4 Blazing Truth – best last out pace figure. Drops from MSW to MCL for trainer Mott. His horses usually need a race or two and this looks like it should be his best effort. Second start after the addition of Lasix.
  • 5Ready Strike – Weaver is 24% with first time MCL. More Than Ready is has been putting a lot of strong 2 year olds on the track. Has a nice series of works including three recent works on the turf.
  • 2 Innocuous – A firster for Albertrani who has been lately much better with debut runners.
  • 1 Lucky Leroy Brown – has had two middling turf starts at MSW but drops down today for trainer Rice. Could be the formula for success.

Race 5

  • 7 Bossanova Lady – ran his best race in these condition. One of a number of horses with the same figure, but looks eligible to improve.
  • 3 Casey Roo – just missed last out at a mile and a sixteenth and should do better with the cutback in distance.
  • 8 Saratoga Karaoke – plodding sort that could get into the race in the stretch. Looks like the stretch out will have some benefit.

Race 6

  • 4 Glacken’s Gift – ran well in her BEL debut a year ago but has been on the shelf since. Clement is good off the layoff and she has a nice series of works for her 2014 debut.
  • 2 Mumtaazah – Made her debut last Nov at AQU, laid up after that race until SAR but did not distinguish herself. Shows no works between the middle of July to the end of August, so something probably happened in that race. Has been on the track in the morning four times in the last month so should be ready to go. Rider switch to Davis from Saez.
  • 3 Majestic Empire – First timer for Hushion who has been having a good BEL meeting from limited starters. Like the works.
  • 6 Love That –  Pletcher first timer’s are usually live, although this one is 6-1 on the ML. He gives this one Lasix. Have to respect.

Race 7

  • 2 Wealth to Me – was claimed by Jacobson two back for $20K, jumped up to $40 and just missed. Cuts back to 7F. Has the best last race pace figure.
  • 5 Doubledown Again – third consecutive claim last race, this time by Michelle Nevin. Not as hot as she was at SAR but still having a decent BEL meeting. two seconds from two starts at BEL.
  • 1a Ground Force – has been running consistently good numbers and likes the BEL dirt. FIrst time off the claim for Contessa and he is just 10% with that move.

Race 8

  • 4 Miz Orwell – last in the Yaddo after being bumped at the break. Fits much better with this group and this distance.
  • 12 Frosty Bay – only three lengths behind in the Hettinger but has been having some trouble cracking the winner’s circle this year. Looks like this might be a good spot to break through.
  • 10 Chrysolite – Last two have been good efforts and except for a small nose to Run to Mama would be going for his third straight win.
  • 3 Lucky Nancy E. – set the pace in the Run to Mama race and with the cut back in distance could stay to the end.

Race 9

  • 7 Enduring Touch  – nice series of works for her debut. Terranova not deadly with first timers but does get Ortiz to ride.
  • 5 Majestic Jessica – ran well in her first start, although Bruce Brown has had some hard luck getting his horses to the winner’s circle. Looks best of the horses that have started.
  • 3 Madoo – Violette average with first time starters but this is not a strong field so she has a better chance.
  • 6 Sandra – ran 4th in the Sweetpollypurebrd race on a lenght and three quarters behind Majestic Jessica. She was running hard while wide and should improve with a better trip.
Selections

Belmont October 2

The word us that we are back on the turf today. That should make things a little more pedictable.

Race 1

  • 8 Angel Choir – is dropping from MSW to MCL after showing speed at the mile distance. Even though she is on the outside, she should have enough early foot to get into the race out of the gate. Definitely looks like she needs to be given a looser rein. Looking for her to have enough to run to the wire in front.
  • 6 Pure of Spirit – did not break well last out and was totally trapped down at the rail in the stretch. Jockey Rice looked like he had some horse in the stretch, but had nowhere to go and when he finally got out showed some run. She also drops from MSW. With a clean trip she’ll have every chance.
  • 1 Beauty Surprise – seemed the best last time when she had to alter course in the stretch. Will have that same issue from the rail today. Second off a short layoff and Clement is pretty good with that move.
  • 7 Reckless Move – last race was her best. Has been improving since dropping to MCL.

Race 2

  • 2 Kool Kat Strut – broke slowly last out but still finished with interest. First off the claim for Shettino and gets a switch to Ortiz.
  • 5 Igotthediscoinme – Nick Esler 31% when debuting in maiden claimer. Last work points to good potential. Read the Footnotes is a good sire with 2 year olds.
  • 7 Scattered Dreams – two starts in the mid-Atlantic, two second place finishes. Trainer Bailes has not won at BEL yet, but has a useful runner here.
  • 9 Sandler – Pletcher drops this horse from MSW after a short layoff. Have to expect a better run today.

Race 3

With the scratch of Shankopotamus Cay to Pomery looks like all the speed and his chances are significantly increased. 

  • 1a Cay to Pomeroy – Since Worrie is named on both parts of the entry, one of them will scratch. This looks like the stronger part of the Englehart coupling. Has a ton of speed and will have to contend with Shankopotamus up front. Class drop should give the horse a better shot to hang on.
  • 5 Shankopotamus – the other speed in the race. Was claimed last out by Sciacca after pulling up in the stretch closing day at SAR. Sciacca kept him on the claim and has given him a couple of works in prep for this. Has won two of his last three.
  • 7 Starship Captain – has a win over the BEL main. Was claimed two back by Levine and only finshed 4 behind strong winner Capital City.
  • 4 Zoebear – in the money in more than half his starts. Was claimed last out by Toscano and he is 15% wheeling them back. Actually looks a little better at the six furlong distance than routing.

Race 4

  • 5 Miss Potenza – stretches out to 6F. Held off the closers and was game to the wire in her first dirt start. Michael Lerman has been 21% from a limited group of starters this year. Best figure of the horses that have started.
  • 4 Club O R – puts the blinkers on for Violette who is not killer with that move. Was brushed at the start, retreated quickly to the back, steadied down the backstretch, and tried to make a closing move to no avail. Has to improve today.
  • 2 Zenstone – first timer for Gary Gullo who is 25% with debuting MCL. Has an abbreviated workout tab but the works are good.
  • 12 Midnight Champagne – outside post shouldn’t hurt. Broke well in her SAR race on the turf, but hit a wall after 3/8. Drops into MCL in an attempt to hang on longer.

Race 5

  • 2 Honor the Kitten – Jumps up to $50K claimers after a solid win last out. Could bounce of his last, which was only two weeks ago after a two month layoff. Has been with better and definitely fits this group.
  • 3 Charlie’s Picnic – is 2 for 2 over the BEL turf including a last out win. Moves up to 7F which will definitely stretch his talent. Rosario stays aboard.
  • 7 Joking – hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle on the BEL turf but has been been knocking. Should have no trouble with the trip.
  • 1 Why Not Whiskey – competitive figures, having trouble crossing the wire first this year. Can be used in the backholes for sure.

Race 6

  • 15 Scooby Dude – ran an immense race last time out. Was pushed all the way back at the start, started making a sustained move about five furlongs out, and looked strong in the stretch. Based on that start has a huge chance today.
  • 2 Kerjillion – Chad Brown trainee led to deep in the stretch. He and Castellano have been a powerful combo. By far the best figure of the horses that have started.
  • 11 Pronunciation – coming out of the same race as the two mentioned above. Ran evenly after being bumped at the start and having to go wide. Improves with a clean trip.
  • 9 Doctor Red – first timer for Michael Maker who is 21% with debut horses. Nice set of workouts.

Race 7

  • 8 Sunlover – drops into a $40K NW2L. Last out was first off a long layoff. He broke toward the rear, stayed wide throughout and managed to close some lengths in the stretch. Hasn’t won in a while but his last win was on this turf course. Should go off at decent odds.
  • 1 Bajan Summer – 1 for 3 on the BEL turf. Sciacca keeps him at the same level second off the claim. Has been running competitively and has the figures to win this race. Ortiz gets back up for Sciacca.
  • 2 Defining Product – just missed last out and was claimed by William Heffner who is 1 for 2 first off the claim. Should like the cutback to 7F.
  • 4 Vona – Almost wired a field at Sar last out. Goes second off the claim for Linda Rice. Has enough speed to take them wire to wire.

Race 8

  • 7 Bakken – Chad Brown trainee is coming off a second in the Grade 2 True North. Has run consistently good figures and looks totally the horse to beat.
  • 6 Geaux Mets – Destroyed a group of state breds last out at FL. 50% win rate, has not run a bad one in a year. His best puts him right there.
  • 5 Captain Serious – Didn’t really run as expected last out but cuts back to his optimal distance. Lots of early foot but perhaps a beat behind the horses above.
  • 3 Candyman E. – probably the best stretch runner. If the race breaks down, he may be the one coming.

Race 9

  • 8 Mythical Man – drops into a $25K NW3L. Should enjoy the cutback in distance and the switch from McCarthy to Lezcano.
  • 10 Media Kid – has been close in his last four after winning a $20K starter at AQU in April. Has lost to a string of horses that have won their last out.
  • 11 Loveisheartandsoul – Back to $25K after trying $50K last out. Looked strong winning at SAR. Was taken by Contessa that day and this looks like the right spot for the horse.
  • 10 Media Kid – 9 of 15 in the money. Good prospect for the back holes.