Selections

Belmont October 4

Great looking card with a lot of competitive races. With rain in the forecast some of the turf races may wash off and if they do we’ll make some adjustments.

Race 1

The two MTO’s, 10 Royal Posse and 11 The Spotted Wonder, made it in and we’ll make them the top two choices 

  • 6 Macagone – was a close second in this condition last out at SAR. It is a little worrisome that he had a three length lead in the stretch and got caught. He has had success on the BEL turf before. Low profile trainer Michael Wilson manages to entice Castellano to take the ride and that has to be a positive move.
  • 9 Tiger D – is a three start maiden with a lot of upside. He hasn’t run a bad race in his career and owns a win breaking his maiden last out at BEL. Workout since that race should keep him on edge.
  • 3 Iced Over – won at the Spa over a mile and an eighth and has run two gallant thirds in the NW1X classification. Seems lke a mile an a sixteenth would be the right distance for his late kick.
  • 7 Oklahoma Dan – 15 lifetime starts and he seems to battle every time. I think he’ll run his best at today’s distance. Certainly has the numbers to be competitive.

Race 2

  • 2 Dickens – puts the blinkers on for low profile trainer Roy Lorman. Dropped into a MCL last time after trying MSW in Florida over the winter. After a five month layoff he certainly needed his last. Should improve today.
  • 3 Smoke Police – Chad Brown trainee looked good in his maiden event at SAR but faltered badly in his last MSW after being bumped and checked. Expecting him to run back to his first race form.
  • 6 Heading to Boca – has been off since being claimed by Michelle Nevin last January. Hasn’t shown a lot of speed and that may hurt him today. Steady works for the return. May need a race to show his best.
  • 5 Ireland’s Eye – had a little trouble at the start last out, rushed up, and gradually gave way. Looks like he can go turf or dirt. Gets a big weight break today.

Race 3

There are no MTO’s in this off the turf event but there are a lot of horses that potentially move up. In fact the 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 all have superior mud ratings. This race looks a little messy to me and unless you have a strong opinion, play carefully.

  • 6 Consumer Credit – gets the nod in a very tough race to handicap. The Chad Brown runner ran into traffic when looking to close the opening weekend at BEL. That race had a good maiden field. She should be able to stay clear from the 6 post and put herself in the right position to win.
  • 7 Lana’s Fortune – Was in the same race as the 6 and was making some headway in the stretch. Englehart has been having a competent season and gave the filly two decent maintenance works for the return.
  • 4 Tela – ran well at Delaware last out when she was well clear of the third place horse. I like her chances today.
  • 8 Nellinger – 20-1 ML for Contessa off two sprints at MTH  including the Colleen. She won’t see those kind of fractions today and should outrun her odds.

Race 4

  • 5 Ever Rider – Excels at the longer distances and just missed to Cary Street in his last. Has been showing speed  but probably will cede the front to Village Warrior. Has the class and the bottom to beat this field.
  • 1 Cary Street – Winner of the Greenwood Cup at Parx last out in pretty decent time. Has been running well in 2014 and deserves a chance to race with the big boys.
  • 2 Awesome Vision – hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle this year but has been competitive in state-bred stakes.  Should have no issue with the distance and may get a piece of the pie.

Race 5

  • 6 Lunar Tales – claimed last out by Contessa and is immediately jumped up to a $50K starter allowance. Has never been on the dirt much less the wet dirt, but does have the wet track rating to be successful. I figure Contessa has him wound up and can’t afford to pass the race.
  • 3 Celebrated Talent – Since this is now off the turf we need to look at the MTO’s. He ran a good race last out and was taken by Linda Rice. Has a freakishly high wet track rating. Looks very tough in here.
  • 8 Ghareeb – another with an outstanding wet track rating. Last race figure suggests he is in top condition. Should be winging on the front end and if the track is playing to the front his chances are upped consideratbly.
  • 9 Giant Fox. The other MTO. Prefers closing but does have a 2 third place finishes in his two wet track races.

Race 6     The Frizette     6-3-1

  • 1 Cavorting – one of the many with a very high mud rating and the winner of the Grade 2 Adirondack. Her breeding suggests she should have no problem with the mile.
  • 2 Wonder Gal – won the state-bred Lynbrook but was no match for Cavorting in the Adirondack. Anohther Tiz Wonderful which means a love for the wet track. Definitely will improve with the added distance.
  • 3 Ring Knocker – Still looking to break her maiden but has run fast enough to be a factor here.
  • 4 Featherbed – broke her maiden by 10 at SAR in August and Pletcher  has kept her working steadily for this start. She was a $330K purchase in the spring, so the connections think a lot of the horse.
  • 5 Cayman Croc – has been the distance but simply doesn’t look fast enough here.
  • 6 Condo Commando – would have been the favorite even without the mud to contend with. Tiz Wonderful progeny are superior in the mud and given her 13+ length victory in the slop at SAR she seems to have inherited the trait. Gotta believe she’ll be winging on the front end and will have to get caught to not win.
  • 7 By the Moon – another with a superior mud rating. Was a distant second to the 6 in the Spinaway and no reason to expect a turnaround today.

Race 7     9-15-14- 1

  • With all the scratches and the race being taken off the turf, the MTO’s look good. Of the originally entered group that stayed, 9 Iron Power has run well on the fast dirt but has some decent wet track breeding. He is certainly in top form. 11 Kiss of Thunder is 1 for 1 on the wet surface.

Race 8      The Champagne    6-1-2-3

  • 1 El Kabeir – Good wet track breeding, Demolished a field in his maiden at SAR. Improving horse that could take them all the way.
  • 2 Upstart – Won the Funny Cide with a nice close last out. Very competitive figures despite them coming in state-bred races.
  • 3 I Spent It – Second in the Hopeful, winner of the Saratoga Special. Wouldn’t be a surprise here at all
  • 4 Holy Boss – Impressive maiden winner at CD but he’s up against some quality animals here. Can’t totally discount but wish he had shown something against this kind.
  • 5 The Truth or Else – broke his maiden on the SAR dirt in pedestrian time. Looks up against it here.
  • 6 Daredevil – runaway winner of his maiden in the mud at Belmont three weeks ago. Pletcher is deadly in these 2 year old stakes.

Race 9     The Hill Prince      1-9-3-5

  • 1 Ring Weekend – has only started three times on the turf but has a win and two seconds. His pressing style should serve him well in this race considering there seems to be a couple of horses that will be dueling on the front end. You have to like the steady improvement he’s shown this summer after pulling up in the Grade 3 Pegasus. Has as much right as any horse to win.
  • 2 Sloane Avenue – Kentucky-bred only has three starts all in England. His two races at lesser tracks were good, but at Newmarket he couldn’t handle the mile and a quarter and the field. He seems a little ambitiously placed in a graded stakes.
  • 3 Blacktype – French bred is 0 for 5 on the turf but has two wins on the synthetic at this distance. Does not show any group races in his pp’s, but Clement is known to get the best out of these shippers, sporting a 31% win rate with shippers to North America. Has been here since mid-August so should be well acclimated. I’m more inclined to figure him for a minor award.
  • 4 Smooth Daddy – has been on the turf all but one of his races. Showed an inclination to run to the front in his last two and I don’t expect that tactic will work in today’s race. Still, he did run second to Ring Weekend in the Saranac and has possibilities for a minor award.
  • 5 Tourist – another horse with front-running tendencies. Set reasonable fractions in the Secretariat and actually beat Ring Weekend in the Saranac. Has run well off of short layoffs previously. Ultimately he may be more useful at a mile, but he certainly can get a mile and an eighth. Franco returns to ride today and he does have a win piloting the horse. At a 3-1 ML he doesn’t look like great value to me and I’m not leaning in his direction for the win.
  • 6 Sheldon – Finished 3rd in the Secretariat but looks like he wants the longer distances. He has finished within four and a half lengths in his last two Grade 1 efforts and could be making up lengths in the stretch.
  • 7 Pumpkin Rumble – really doesn’t look like he has a chance here.
  • 8 Cabral – another French-bred horse that comes over here with his trainer and jockey making me think they might have late October plans for the horse if he runs well today. Doesn’t have any graded races and the couple of races for which he has figures are middling at best, plus he’s 0 for 3 on the turf. I don’t think he’ll be seeing my money.
  • 9 Mr. Speaker – also ran in the Travers on the dirt, but he did come from well out on the good BEL turf to win the Belmont Derby. He’s won graded stakes on synthetic and the turf. Has to be careful not to compromise his chances by going with the solid speed burners. You have to like his chances.
  • 10 Daddy’s Kid – does not seem to have the talent to compete at this level.

Race 10

  • 1 Leroy Jr. – One of the two Chad Brown trainees and it really looks like a two horse race with both of them. Leroy has plenty of speed and has run his best races on the dirt.
  • 4 Groupthink – has been knocking around at this condition for a while but his last was good enough to beat this field. Flip a coin but don’t bet against Chad Brown.
  • 3 Captain Toews – ran into the tough Dyker Beach in his last two. 6 1/2F may extend him the limit of his abilities.
  • 8 Tapidor – broke his maiden at a nice price moving from the turf to the dirt in his last. He was an expensive purchase at the 2012 Keeneland sale. Would not be an unreasonable play here and will be a price.

Race 11

With this race taken off the turf, things could change, but all my original selections are all running except the 2B. 14 Watergate has a high wet track rating and ran well in the slop at SAR first out. 

  • 9 Space Cowboys – showed nice speed in his first out and has a bullet work three days ago. Matt Peebles is 1 for 3 with 2nd start maidens – limited sample but impressive looking percentage.
  • 1A Mark My Style – Cuts back to 6F after contending most of the way at a mile. Looks fastest of the horses that have started; change from Saez to Franco probably positive.
  • 8 Boldlee – closed first out and pressed second out. Three horses came out of his first start to win, and a couple have tried stakes company. A little bit of improvement and he is a maiden no longer.
  • 2/2b – both are first time starters although for different trainers. Chase This Bandit has been working steadily for Linda Rice, B.B.’s Remington has some quick drills for Gary Contessa. Could upset the horses that have some experience but I’d want a little more than 6-1.