Selections

Belmont October 8

My complaint the past couple of Wednesdays has been the quality of the races. Not today. There are plenty of competitive races on the card.

Race 1

  • 4 Talladega – Trainer Ed Barker has quietly had a nice year from very limited starts. He looks like a trainer who has plenty of time to spend with his charges. Talledega has run three consistent races but has come up short each time. He cuts back to a mile today and in this field he has good prospects. Irad Ortiz stays aboard.
  • 11 Forever Utopia – has 12 starts and 8 seconds. That is not an encouraging statistic, but he did just miss in his last after leading until the shadow of the wire. You have to respect his ability but the seconditis could be endemic.
  • 8 Starago – did not disgrace himself in his first start and should be much more prepared for this start

Race 2

  • 1a Screenplay – Speedster toted 130 pounds in his last at MTH and not unexpectedly faded in the stretch. He has won a third of his turf starts. He can handle the mile and an eighth but has to worry about Southern Proper on the front end. Only a tepid favorite for me.
  • 7 Abilio – Rudy Rodriguez claimed this runner from David Jacobson last out. He’s coming off a win in that race, his first in two years. No reason he can’t keep it rolling for Ru Rod today.
  • 4 Skiffs Brewmeister – last seemed a bit beyond his comfort zone considering he had no stretch kick. Has had a good 2014 and is by far the best closer in the race. Has a big chance today.
  • 5 Days Ride – won his last at SAR where he was claimed by Steve Klesaris. Should have a nice position down the backstretch. One of a bunch with competitive figures.

Race 3

  • 4 Ferzetti – two starts with two seconds at DEL. Stretches out to 6F but is the fastest of the horses that have previously started.
  • 6 Riddle Me This – first start was on the turf early in the SAR meeting. Third place finisher Partisan Politics ran respectably in the Miss Grillo and 6th place finished Hooligan won a restricted stakes at Laurel. Has a good set of works leading up to this one. Puts the blinkers on for Rodriguez.
  • 1 Coral Beach – showed a mild closing kick in her SAR debut and drops into a MCL today. Pletcher decided to not use one of his main jocks and gives his exercise rider Kari Francois her first chance. It’s a big task from the rail but maybe the 10 pound bug makes a difference.
  • 9 May Flowers – not a great effort in the mud last out. Puts the blinkers on today and has a nice 5F drill ten days ago. Englehart not known for 2nd time maidens but this one could be the exception.

Race 4

  • 2 Premium – After three races in the U.S. McLaughlin adds Lasix. Looks like she will prefer the longer distance. Workouts suggest she’s ready for this one.
  • 4 Clearbrook – In ten races she really hasn’t run a bad one. Lately has been showing speed. Second last was a respectable run against males. Switches from Mott to Brown and that may be enough to put her over the top.
  • 8 Little Journey – three straight graded stakes and three respectable runs. The other Chad Brown trainee puts the blinkers on.
  • 3 Sabbatical – winner of a NW1X in her first lifetime turf start. She may have found a home on the grass.

Race 5

  • 6 Boca Babe – has two off the turf starts, one where she was a 21+ length winner. Drops down to a $25K NW2. If she runs back to her maiden she should romp today.
  • 9 Benny’s Bullet – lots of early speed and looks like she is best meant for the sprint distances. Has to overcome her tendency to back up near the wire.
  • 3 Amber Morning – been knocking on the door lately but with 15 starts may be more likely for a smaller piece.
  • 4 Calm Reply – Interesting runner comes off two five furlong sprints at DEL. Has an outside chance.

Race 6

  • 6 Buddy the Elf – Switches from the turf to the main but his breeding says he’ll like the dirt. Nice work ten days ago.
  • 5 Got Winged – coming out of the same race as Buddy the Elf. Was very wide around the turn but stayed on in the stretch. Looking for  improvement on the dirt today.
  • 2 Mr Harlan – first timer for Lisa Lewis has a short but impressive work tab. Don’t care for the rail post, but Harlan’s Holiday has had some impressive two year old runners.
  • 10 B.B.’s Remingon – has a nice series of workouts for his debut including a quick 35 2/5. Contessa not known for success with firsters but I like this one to be competitive.

Race 7

  • 1 Elroi – had a poor start  but the jockey did the right thing and didn’t rush him up. Closed a lot of lengths to only lose by two. Like his chances today.
  • 3 Analysis – hasn’t run a bad race in 2014. Competitive figures.
  • 11 Jonrah – Still looking for his first win since being claimed by Contessa. He’s offered for the $40K price in this OC event which makes me wonder if Contessa isn’t ready to give up on the horse. Still did beat a similar field at BEL in June.
  • 2 Mobridge – has a good closing kick but there isn’t a lot of good speed in the race to set it up for him. Has a chance in a wide open race.

Race 8

  • 1 Bay of Plenty – two powerful wins in a row, top figure in the race. However, is coming off a five month layoff and that is at least a little cause for concern. Has worked steady for the return.
  • 6 Vinceremos – laid up after getting trounced in the Kentucky Derby and the Blue Grass. Was a force in Florida earlier in the year and could return as any kind. My instinct says give him a race, but with Pletcher training, hard to leave him out
  • 8 Saint Vigeur – was a useful stakes horse in 2013 and comes back today after almost a year off. Chad Brown is 23% with this move but his figures may have to improve to beat this bunch.
  • 5 Crushing – Came off a year layoff to win an OC at Parx then moved to Delaware where he was trounced in an OC$65. However before that he was very consistent. Six year old has only 21 starts so probably some physical issues to contend with, but Chad Brown wouldn’t start him if he wasn’t ready.

Race 9

  • 5 Mary’s in Utopia – winner of the coin flip for who gets put on top in this race. After 10 starts she finally gets moved to the grass and only misses a neck. I’m going to assume that’s where she should have been all along. Trainer is 1 for 26 this year, so that is cause for concern, but the odds should be right.
  • 6 Maura’s Pass – Drops into a MCL for Clement. One of many with a competitive figure.
  • 7 Lovely Lanie – Another dropping from MSW. Actually showed some speed last time and held well in the stretch. Should also be a pretty good price.
  • 12 Laura Can Disco – showed good speed last out but ran into mudlark Penella. Gotta think if she duplicates that run on the turf she has more than a fair chance.