Selections

Belmont October 10

Race 1      1-7-2-6   (the in-depth analysis race of the day)

There are seven horses entered in this race and I’m pretty sure In the Beat has no chance to win. As for the others, it looks like a very competitive race on paper.

  • 1 M J Plus – has not won a race since March at Parx, but he also hasn’t been anywhere near $12,500 claimers since he was taken by Marcos Zulueta in January 2014. David Jacobson bought the horse in July and took him to SAR where he  finished up the track in a $25K starter allowance. He stepped him up to $50K open claimers at MTH, back down to $25K starter allowance at SAR and an ALW NW1X at BEL a month ago. His best race since Jacobson grabbed him was at 7F, and it seems to be bigger news lately when Jacobson doesn’t win a race. Jacobson apparently doesn’t want to lose the horse, but he needed to find a spot where he could win. This looks like it.
  • 2 Apex – another horse that has been struggling with higher level allowance runners. Dennis Lalman has only 8 starts this year, all with Apex, and clearly since this is the only horse he owns and trains he probably doesn’t want to lose him, but he does need a win. He puts the blinkers on Apex, and frankly that looks like it might be one of those, “I don’t know what to do next, so I’ll try this” sort of moves. You know Lalman has to be serious, and Apex does have competitive numbers. He should have a nice pressing spot and is another one that looks like today just might have to be the day.
  • 3 Moe Man – has not won at the distance and is a pedestrian 7 for 49 overall. He was claimed 5 weeks ago by Gary Contessa and raced once at a $25K tag where he finished a close neck behind Springcourt. I think he would have to improve a bit to beat this bunch so it’s a lesser award at best.
  • 4 Noble Doss – was claimed last out by Linda Rice for $12,500. He’s got one win this year, a $12,500 claimer at BEL in June. He’s got a little early lick, but I think he’d have to run a career best to beat this field.
  • 5 In the Beat – Doesn’t look in good condition, doesn’t have a high win percentage, and doesn’t look fast enough.
  • 6 Springcourt – another Contessa claim. He won his last out and is 1 for 2 at the distance. He’s had a lot of starts – 10 – this year but he’s run very competitively in his last seven races. A little bit of a tendency to finish second. I’m not excited about his closing running style, especially since there isn’t any natural front-runner here. He fits at this level, but he certainly looks no better than a few of the others.
  • 7 Box Office – A good prospect to set the early pace. He hasn’t been at a level this low since last September at MTH. His mile race on July 10 at Belmont gives him the best pace figure in the field. His last race may have been his worst, but it seemed like a mile and an eighth is a little beyond his comfort zone. Jason Servis is having a pretty fair meet, and a pretty good year. He would be the main threat to M J Plus.

Race 2

  • 1 Go Olivia Go – Claimed by Jacobson last out and lately that seems to be enough of a reason to back the horse. Jacobson gave the horse most of a month off before he brought her back for a workout. Given that she had 21 races in 2013 and 15 races already in 2014 it’s no wonder she needed a break. She won for $16K at SAR, so it is a little concerning that Jacobson brings her back for $12,500, but if she does win and get claimed he’d still make a little bit of money, Not a sure thing but solid in this field.
  • 5 Discreet Force – has the best last out pace figure, and has one win at the distance. She’s also got two wins in four tries at BEL. There are a couple of negatives. She has long breaks between races which shouts physical problems. Same with her workouts. Gary Gullo is very spare about putting her on the track. Obviously she runs well fresh – that’s all she does. You have to make up your mind – sore legged gamble or a fast filly ready to run.
  • 3 Wild Kay – unless the track starts playing differently early speed types are not holding up well. She was claimed for today’s claiming price last out by Patricia Farro. Farro comes from a horseracing family and runs mostly in New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic. She has a fair winning percentage and won on Wednesday at BEL with Amber Morning. Wild Kay fits here but has to run the right race.
  • 2 Precious Franca – another last out claim, this one by Mitchell Friedman. Although she’s dropping to her lowest level in quite a while, she seems like she would need to run her best race to beat this field.

Race 3

You ever have a race where your first thought is, nobody really looks like they can win this race? This one might be one of those.

  • 2 Recanted – given the 1 for 20something (and 50something) horses in the field, I’m going to look for a horse that is not yet a confirmed NW2L runner and with at least some up side. Recanted was given to David Jacobson after being out west in the Doug O’Neill barn earlier this year. He ran his best race since being in America for Jacobson although it was at a sprint distance on the turf. He was grabbed out of that race by John Kimmel, who isn’t known for his claiming prowess but has had a decent BEL meeting. It’s a little bit of a stretch to bet him in a route race on the dirt but he is well bred for the distance and the surface.
  • 1 Grandpa Len – one of the horses that seems to be more in-the-money than in the winner’s circle. This is a pretty weak field even for a $25K NW2L so it isn’t inconceivable for this one to win. He was claimed two back by Assaf Ronen and that is not necessarily a positive sign, but he should be fine at the distance.
  • 7 Cosmic Coincidence – ran pretty well in the mud at SAR  for trainer Gary Gullo who claimed him two back. That was his first try at a route in a while, and he led to the stretch call. He laid off a month after that race and has had only one workout in prep for this. A little ambiguous but competitive in this field
  • 6 Goodnewsisnonews – Listed as the ML favorite for Asmussen. His only win was at this distance on an off the turfer at MTH. Honestly off his best race he’s the fastest horse in here, but 2-1 on the first flash might be the highest odds you’ll see.

Race 4

  • 7 Hail Cornell – has two starts for Bill Mott and we all know Mott starters usually need a race or two. He drops this one from MSW down to claimers, and that can potentially be seen as a negative, but she is a homebred and the purse plus the claiming price gives Laue Ranch a decent chunk of change. Fastest pace figure of the starters.
  • 1 Arctic Ocean – showed a little bit of speed last out on the dirt and probably benefits from the inside post. Ortiz gets back aboard. With the right ride could sneak through in the stretch.
  • 10 Kibble – despite the speculation that she’ll be the front runner, it could be difficult from the 10 post. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has been ice cold at BEL but he is too good to be shut out much longer. She is well bred for the distance but is suspect on the turf.
  • 6 Ready Now – First timer is well bred for the turf and distance and Alan Goldberg is fair with debut runners.

Race 5

  •  9 Matching Skies – starts from the far outside post and jumps up a bit for Abigail Adsit, but was only two and a half behind the big ML favorite E Z  Passer in her last. In that race she dropped back steadily after the start and made a sustained 5 wide move into the stretch. She actually took the lead at one point but was outfinished by E Z Passer who came up the rail. She’s shown a little more speed in past races and perhaps Johnny V will keep her a bit closer today.
  • 2 What the Frost – last race was her first back in two months and she ran evenly around the track. Hasn’t gotten a win in 2014 but the claim by Contessa two back might make the difference. Should be a bit of a price too.
  • 6 E Z Passer – had a perfect trip last time and is riding a four race winning streak. Switches to the Diane Balsamo barn after the claim last race. The trainer is a slick 6 for 26 in 2014. She will be a short price today and it might be worth betting for the 9 to turn the tables.
  • 1 My Tee Time – has to gun from the 1 post but is by far the best early speed in the race. Speed has not been doing great the last two days, and 7 furlongs might be the far edge of her ability.

Race 6

I thought this was an extremely competitive affair with at least six solid contenders.

  • 3 Hard Enough – Michael Trombetta claimed him for $25K two back and jumped him into a state-bred stakes at Laurel. He ran respectably – in fact he’s run respectably all year, winning the Grade 3 Red Bank at today’s distance. He’s probably best at a mile and $40K claimers should be right in his wheelhouse.
  • 7 Treasury Devil – Claimed by RuRod at SAR and ran twice more at the Spa. Switches back to Johnny V from Arroyo and that should help his chances. Certainly fits with this group and on his best should contend for the win.
  • 10 McIlroy – hasn’t been in the claiming ranks since a victory at BEL in June. He lost to a strong group of OC$62 horses last out but didn’t disgrace himself. The negative – he will have competition on the front end if he decides to push the pace. He is making a pretty good drop in class level, and we’ll see if that is enough to make him stay for the whole race.
  • 12 Special Skills – has been consistent this year. Was probably a bit too ambitiously placed last race and should fare better with this group.

Race 7

  • 2 Official – Jacobson runner has been off for over two months – in fact Jacobson didn’t put her on the track between July 23 and September 2. It’s a bit of a chance putting her on top, but Jacobson  is one of the best with this move.
  • 3 Given Fire – is a speedy sort that should get some push up front from Manhattan Gin. Given her past performances, 7F looks like it might be too long for her. Last out she set a good pace on the yielding turf and almost held on. If she sets reasonable fractions at the shorter distance she may hold on today.
  • 10 Aesthetique – sounds like one of the X-Men. She’s in a much better spot today, off the rail, back to 6F, and not on the yielding turf. Like her running style but needs to sustain the closing kick to win today.
  • 6 Skye Saratoga – has been over her head since breaking her maiden last year at AQU. Hasn’t been on the turf yet, but Albertrani has been training well.

Race 8

  • 6 Strong Impact – goes in for the price in this OC NW2X. Has almost a 25% win rate and has had good success on the BEL turf. Hasn’t been this low in quite a while. Had a little bit of trouble in his last race and if he stays clear this could be a winning spot.
  • 2 Dowse’s Beach – Clement trainee has not run a bad one in a while. Has competitive figures and should be able to stay clear on the outside.
  • 8 Isn’tlovejustgrand – was wide last out but finished with energy. Has won three times on the BEL turf and has been consistent in 2014.
  • 9 Pretension – Early speed sort was claimed out of his last two, most recently by Gary Contessa. Most of his races are on the dirt, but he does have a win in four tries on the BEL turf.

Race 9

  • 1 Congress Park – ran a good learning race last out when she took the lead in the stretch but was passed by Ack Nightly. Bruce Brown and Javier have been a successful duo.
  • 4 Ten Penny Princess – Total air ball in a state bred stakes at FL on the dirt. Prior race was a strong effort on the turf where she is back today. Kelly Breen is 23% with two year olds
  • 12 Fourstar Crook – first time starter for Chad Brown. He’s always dangerous in these races.
  • 8 Loon River – looking to break her maiden in her fourth start. Passed a spot on Thursday for this one. If experience counts, this one is a contender.