All posts by richhalvey

Stories and Reporting

Mollie and Tenbrooks

This is an original story I researched and wrote a while ago. I sent it to the Blood Horse for publication and they agreed to publish it. Unfortunately, they only offered me $100 for the piece. I turned it down. So instead of publishing it for $100 and letting thousands read it, I’m publishing it for free for maybe dozens to read. Given that, I’m asking that if you read it, pass it along so that it gets as wide a distribution as possible.

Mollie and Tenbrooks

By Rich Halvey

“Run O Molly run, run O Molly run

Tenbrooks gonna beat you to the bright shinin’ sun.

To the bright shinin’ sun, O Lord, to the bright shinin’ sun”

All things considered, 1878 was not history’s most exciting year. Thomas Alva Edison patented the phonograph, prompting the first known occurrence of a parent saying, “You call that music? In my day, we had real music!” Who can forget that 1878 was one of the numerous years when Greece declared war on Turkey. It was also the year of the first of three assassination attempts on Italian king Umberto I; the anarchists may not have been great shots, but they were persistent.

And, oh yeah, it was the year of the Mollie McCarthy/Ten Broeck match race.

In 1878 three sports captured the imagination of the American public. Horse racing dominated the sporting news of the time, exploding in popularity through the last half of the 1800’s until by 1890 there were 314 tracks in operation. Boxing was a distant second followed by the growing sport of baseball. Football was popular on college campuses, but the formation of professional teams with paid players was over two decades away, and nearly half a century from becoming the respectable National Football League. Basketball would not even be invented until 1891. Horse racing all but stood alone atop the 19th century sports world.

The 1870s were a time of change in American racing. Up until that decade, most racing consisted of horses going long distances two- to five-times in a day. The famous 1823 race between American Eclipse and Henry, so beautifully chronicled by John Eisenberg in his book The Great Match Race, was typical of the time, with the horses having to win two-out-of-three four-mile heats. By the middle of the century, horses such as Lexington, perhaps the greatest of the so-called four-milers, were heroes on the track and favorites in the breeding shed.

While the English had all but abandoned the multiple-heat, long-distance race by 1870 in favor of single-heat “sprint” races, change was more gradual in America. Still, the movement toward what we today think of as the prototypical racehorse—fast-breaking and hard-running—was inexorable and irresistible. By 1880, the era of the four-milers was over, and racing took the shape modern fans would recognize.

MERIWETHER LEWIS CLARK

The track we know today as Churchill Downs was the brainchild of Meriwether Lewis Clark, Jr., nicknamed Lutie, grandson of the former Missouri governor and famed explorer General William Clark and the great nephew of Louisville founder George Rogers Clark. When his father, Meriwether Lewis Clark, Sr., married Abigail Prather Churchill, the Clark’s gained a connection to one of Kentucky’s first families.

Armistead Churchill, Jr. brought his family to Louisville in 1787, in the process changing the family name from Churchhill to the current well known spelling. He purchased 300 acres of land, part of which included the grounds on which Churchill Downs now sits.

Lutie Clark was only six when his mother died and his bereaved father sent him to live with his aunt and her two sons, John and Henry Churchill, holders of most of the original Churchill property. It was during his time with the Churchills that Lutie developed a taste for custom made suits, good food, and of course horse racing.

By his mid-twenties, Lutie Clark’s love of excess showed both in his physical girth and his personality. He was described as a great mustachioed bear of a man, arrogant, quarrelsome and quick-tempered, traits that would eventually cost him his friends, family and the track he helped start.

In 1873 the 27 year-old Clark returned from a trip to Europe with grand ideas about how to build a racetrack and eliminate the traditional bookmaker in favor of French pari-mutuel (literally “betting between the patrons”) machines. The idea behind pari-mutuel betting was ingenious. Rather than the track or the bookmaker accepting the full risk of a wager, the track would simply act as the “broker,” essentially creating a betting pool of wagers and distributing payoffs to the winners for a fixed fee per wager. In this way the patrons would decide the “odds” of each entrant and the track was completely removed from any financial interest in the outcome. Whether the favorite or the longest shot won the race, the track collected exactly the same amount of money. In theory, this gave them a powerful incentive to maintain the integrity of racing.

Unfortunately, despite Clark’s best efforts, the French machines never caught on. It would be decades before the mechanical version of the automated tote machine fully replaced the on-track auction pools and bookmakers. As was indicative of the time, living, breathing beings (like men and horses) were almost always trusted more than cold, heartless machines, even if those living beings were bookmakers—remember the famous tale of John Henry from the 1800s in which a legendary steel driver outperformed a steam-powered hammer?

With the backing and land donation of the Churchills, Lutie got the track built, and on May 17, 1875, the Louisville Jockey Club and Driving Park Association opened its doors to the public. During the spring and fall the facility was to be devoted to racing, while the rest of the year it was available for carriage riding, hence the Driving Park Association part of the name.

The Churchills happily allowed Lutie Clark to manage the racetrack and in the early years the track did reasonably well, although never turning a profit. Lutie flung himself into his racetrack endeavors to the point of obsession, but the irascible and overly opinionated Clark managed to alienate almost everyone he came in contact with, from the horsemen to the press to each member of his family, one by one. In one well-known incident, Clark refused the prominent breeder, T.G. Moore permission to race at the track, claiming Moore was behind on the payment of entry fees. Moore demanded an apology, Clark refused, and when Moore would not leave the premises, Clark drew a gun on him and ordered him off. Moore left but only to get a gun and shoot Clark through his office door, hitting Clark in the chest but not wounding him mortally. As the years went on there were more and more stories of Lutie Clark’s embarrassments, eventually using up all the patience left in John and Henry Churchill.

The story of how the track came to be known as Churchill Downs also lay in the contempt generated for Lutie. Many locals called the track “Churchill’s downs” as a way of reminding Lutie who was really in control of the track. It became known informally as Churchill Downs in 1883, when reporters picked up on the name. Within a few years, everyone referred to the track as Churchill Downs, but it wasn’t until 1937 that the facility was formally incorporated with that name.

Lutie Clark’s original plan was to hold three major races each year modeled after the Epsom Derby, the Oaks and the St. Ledger Stakes. The three races would be called the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks, still run on the Friday before the Derby, and the eponymously named Clark Stakes, still run during the fall meet at Churchill. While the Kentucky Derby was one of four races carded for that first race day in May (although not the first Saturday), two other races probably provided more of a draw for the 12,000 in attendance: the Louisville Cup and the Gentleman’s Cup Race. Clark’s honored guests watched the races from the clubhouse, sipping mint juleps (a drink often reported as being invented by Lutie Clark) and listening to Strauss waltzes.

In 1875, top-flight 3-year-old racing was considered something of a novelty, and it would be years before the Kentucky Derby would attain status as America’s premier horse race. Still, when the fine racehorse Aristides beat fourteen other 3-year-olds to win the mile-and-a-half Derby in record time, the crowd was appropriately enthusiastic.

Despite a popular desire to assume that the impact of the Derby on American racing was large from its first running, it was not the early Derbys that certified Churchill Downs as one of the elite tracks in America. That would come three years later on July 4, 1878, when Ten Broeck, a horse that had finished fifth behind Aristides in the inaugural Derby, met Mollie McCarthy (sometimes spelled as McCarty) in one of the very last of the four-mile marathons.

TEN BROECK

Ten Broeck was a regally bred bay stallion by the British import sire Phaeton (who was by Baron de Rothschild’s well-known stallion King Tom) out of the mare Fanny Holton. A look at Fanny Holton’s pedigree reveals not only the prepotent sire Lexington, but also the eventually memorialized Henry, the loser of the “Great Match Race.” Fanny Holton is generally recognized as one of Lexington’s most influential daughters.

Ten Broeck was a useful horse at age three, having defeated Aristides in the Phoenix Stakes before faltering in the Derby. That year, he won five of nine races. By the time Ten Broeck turned four, he had become an eye-catching racehorse off the track and a superstar on the track. In 1876, Ten Broeck won seven of the eight races he entered and established a new record for the four-mile distance. Next year, at the age of five, he won nine of the ten events he entered, with his only defeat coming at the hands of Hall of Fame horse Parole (owned by tobacco king Pierre Lorillard) in the Baltimore Special at Pimlico. This race also featured one of Lexington’s last sons—Tom Ochiltree, the 1875 Preakness winner—and was somewhat artificially billed as a battle of East versus West, even though all three horses were Eastern-bred. In an action that would be unbelievable today, Congress actually adjourned to allow the Senators and Congressmen to attend the event.

After Ten Broeck’s 5-year-old season, his owner, Frank Harper, considered retiring him to stud duty. After all, he had no equal in the best two-of-three four-mile heats. Fortunately for racing, and especially Churchill Downs, Harper chose to give Ten Broeck two more races in 1878. One would be the famous match race against Mollie McCarthy.

 MOLLIE McCARTHY

The true history and pedigree of Mollie McCarthy is difficult to track due to the great number of fillies and mares of the same name around that time. Most accounts have her foaled in 1873, making her a year younger than Ten Broeck. While some sources suggest Mollie was bred in Tennessee, she was almost certainly born in California, the certain daughter of the top California broodmare Hennie Farrow and the likely daughter of the stallion Monday (a son of Colton that was a lesser son of Lexington). Mollie McCarthy’s breeder, Adolph Maillard, had brought Hennie Farrow, Monday, and a sire named Young Eclipse, originally purchased by Richard Ten Broeck, to California. In 1873, all of these horses were firmly entrenched in Marin County California.

Mollie quickly established herself as a top-flight racehorse. She won her only start as a 2-year-old and six consecutive races throughout her 3-year-old season. She continued defeating all comers during her 4-year-old season, winning five more races. When she defeated a horse named Jake at the start of her 5-year-old campaign, despite conceding fourteen pounds, it became clear that there were no horses left in California to beat. Mollie’s owner, Theodore Winters, sold her to Lucky Baldwin, who decided it was time for Mollie to head East to take on the horse considered the best in training—Ten Broeck.

LUCKY BALDWIN

Elias Jackson Baldwin left his mark all over California. He was swept to California in 1853, like thousands of others in search of gold. He survived losing his way and Indian attacks and finally arrived in San Francisco with little more than the rags on his back. Once he arrived he realized his fortune lay in selling food, supplies and accommodations, not panning Sutter’s Creek. Seven years later he entered the realm of the truly wealthy by playing the volatile silver market in Nevada.

Although Baldwin always seemed to live a charmed existence, by most accounts he earned the moniker “Lucky” a few years after cashing in on the Comstock lode. He left San Francisco to hunt elephants in India, instructing his broker to sell his stocks if they fell below a certain level. The stocks fell, but his broker did not have access to the certificates in his safe and they were never sold. Soon after, the stocks rebounded and Baldwin reaped a multi-million dollar windfall. Baldwin’s good fortune made him one of the richest men in California, and in 1875 he moved to Southern California, purchasing Rancho Santa Anita in the San Gabriel Valley for the extraordinary price of $200,000, and three years later the undefeated Mollie McCarthy.

For a while Baldwin’s luck continued and his wealth grew. Rancho Santa Anita became a showpiece featuring high quality thoroughbreds, eventually including three Kentucky Derby winners. Over time he subdivided the property, creating the communities of Arcadia (where Santa Anita Race Track is located), Sierra Madre, and Monrovia.

THE HYPE

Despite its early success, Churchill Downs had not yet achieved the status of some of the more famous tracks in New York and Maryland, and Lutie Clark was looking for an opportunity to add Churchill to the short list of elite racing places.

Frank Harper apparently could not bear the thought of retiring Ten Broeck to stud so soon and had already raced him earlier in the year. Lutie Clark knew that Ten Broeck was still the biggest draw in racing and approached Harper about one more race with an undefeated mare from California. Since Ten Broeck had no real competition left in the east, Harper jumped at the chance. Lucky Baldwin had already committed to move Mollie McCarthy eastward, and Lutie Clark quickly convinced Baldwin that by meeting Ten Broeck he would be part of the “race of the century.” Each side agreed to put up $5,000, an amount that would be worth about $125,000 today. On April 3, 1878, The New York Times published a small piece on the upcoming race:

“Col. M. Lewis Clark, Jr., President of the Louisville Jockey Club, has perfected arrangements by which Ten Broeck and Mollie McCarthy are to run four-mile heats at Louisville, July 4 next, for the sum of $10,000. Two or three other races will be given at the same time. The owner of Mollie McCarthy thinks she can beat any horse in the country. The mare will be brought from California to Louisville in Budd Doble’s car, which has been chartered for the round trip, and will probably arrive here about the first of May to prepare for the contest. Ten Broeck was never in better condition than at present.”

On that same train were a thousand Californians with their life savings in their pockets, determined to match every dollar the Kentuckians wished to put up on their champion.

Despite a tendency then, just as now, to overhype major sporting events, the Ten Broeck/Mollie McCarthy race had every right to be considered one of the two or three “races of the century.” It was the marquee event of the biggest sport in the country, and had all of the elements of drama a major event demands: the veteran Eastern horse, a champion in every respect, versus an undefeated mare with a larger-than-life owner from upstart California. Long before the Seabiscuit/War Admiral race was hyped as racing royalty against the common horse, Ten Broeck and Mollie McCarthy represented that scenario. And while it may not have been clear to everyone at the time, this match race turned out to be the last of the great four-mile events. It was the end of an era.

THE RACE

The event was as eagerly anticipated as any contest of the time could have been. Lutie Clark and the Churchills managed to arrange the event that would turn the track into the home of the greatest racehorse of the day, or at least that day.

On July 4, the weather was typically Southern, sunny, hot and humid. However, rain the day before had turned the track heavy and sticky. The writer L.S. Hardin described the track this way.

“It rained torrents for hours the night before the race. When I reached the track the next morning, about 9 o’clock, the course looked as though it had been prepared for aquatic sports. As the track sloped to the rail, it was at that point, of course, deeper in water than farther out, where it was higher. The sun was so hot that horses standing idle in the field were wet with perspiration. This heat dried the track rapidly, but still left it about impossible for a horse to run, on an average, closer than six feet from the rail.”

People started arriving at the track early in the morning, and the heavy stream of patrons did not abate until well after the first race of the day. The New York Times described the streets as “well-nigh impassable.” Still, that many people for a sporting event in 1878 was phenomenal and clearly pointed to the importance of the race. It was among the largest crowds ever to attend a single sporting event up to that date.

Train travel in the 1800s was generally arduous, especially along the transcontinental line that had been completed only a short nine years earlier. Despite Mollie’s fine accommodations, the trip was sure to take something out of her.

When it was time for the first heat, Mollie, the challenger, made the first appearance, still covered in her white sheet. L.S. Hardin described her as “in perfect flesh for a long run,” although other accounts more precisely suggested she was carrying some excess flesh. Her connections dismissed that as a concern, indicating she ran better with some weight to spare. Hardin also mentioned Mollie was moving “awkwardly” with her hind legs, hinting at some lack of racing condition, a natural suspicion after such a lengthy train trip. With the help of the Californians in attendance, she was given a “fair round of applause.”

Ten Broeck emerged on the opposite side of the track from Mollie and was given thunderous recognition. Ten Broeck stripped his covering first and immediately provided an animated display of readiness. A much later account of the race suggested that Ten Broeck was sweaty and glassy-eyed, evidence that he had been drugged. However, by most accounts he was described as fit and well-conditioned. Hardin proclaimed him in “perfect condition for a long race.”

Ten Broeck’s regular rider was an ex-slave named William Walker. In the 1800s, most of the best jockeys were African-American, and Walker was among the best of them all. He rode Baden Baden to victory in the 1877 Derby and was five times the leading rider at Churchill Downs. He was, by all accounts, a gentleman in every respect and a perfect match for Ten Broeck.

Although the race was scheduled as a best two-out-of-three, most newspaper reports only describe one heat. Newspaper accounts of the time were a combination of the facts along with the embellishments of the turf writers who could turn a walkover into a race of riveting excitement. The accounts of the heat reflected this style in their descriptions, but not in the outcome. Some accounts had Ten Broeck leading the entire heat over the overmatched Molly; others noted Molly ran easily for the first two miles, keeping at least a head in front of the tightly restrained Ten Broeck. L.S. Hardin said that for the first two and a half miles the race was “as rapid and hotly contested as man ever witnessed,” and the fractional times bear him out, with the first mile run a tick under 1:50 and the second mile run a tick over 1:55. This was of no concern to Frank Harper who believed his horse had limitless bottom. He had instructed jockey Walker to not only beat the upstart filly, but to do so decisively.

On a track that was deep and sticky and on a day that was like nothing Mollie had ever seen in Northern California, the first two miles were killing. But two miles was as much as Molly had left in her. By the time they entered the third mile, jockey Walker began to let Ten Broeck roll, opening somewhere between five and ten lengths by the time the third mile was completed. Whether or not Molly was defeated psychologically by the powerful run of Ten Broeck can never be known, but she was clearly defeated physically. The question was not whether Ten Broeck would win, but by how much.

Lutie Clark sent a letter to the editor of the Herald, describing the race this way.

“The day was intensely hot and close and the track very heavy. The mare set a pace to kill the big horse, both running about thirty or forty feet from the pole. After going two and a half miles the mare began to weaken, and when passing the stand the third time she was very much distressed.”

As the horses began the fourth and final mile, one of the attendees, the famed detective Yankee Bligh, the man who relentlessly pursued the James gang, was purported to shout, “One thousand Mollie does not pass under the wire again.” One patriotic Californian took him up on the bet, but at the quarter-pole, the magnificent Mollie threw up her tail, gave up the race, and with that, the money of her backers. Ten Broeck galloped leisurely to the wire in the very slow time of 8:19 3/4. Mollie McCarthy, the great hope of her sex and western racing, was taken to the stable area, exhausted and in physical distress. Only the fine work of her veterinarians kept the day from proving an even greater disaster for Lucky Baldwin and his horse.

Accounts of Ten Broeck’s condition after the race varied. While he seemed to be blowing hard as would be expected, there were comments on the lack of sweat on Ten Broeck, lending small credibility to the rumor he had been drugged or even poisoned. However that was countered by reports that stated that an hour after the race Ten Broeck looked fine in his stall, like he could have run another heat.

Even after the race was over, some of Mollie’s supporters refused to acknowledge the superiority of Ten Broeck. Whether it was true or not, later writings about Mollie McCarthy would opine that she detested the muddy going and the unfamiliar, extreme combination of heat and humidity, although a killing pace on a deep track on a hellish day would have challenged any horse.

THE AFTERMATH

The Kentucky crowd was ecstatic at the success of the local hero. Ten Broeck was retired after the race to stud duty, where he achieved moderate, but not outstanding, success. A little more than a hundred years later, Ten Broeck was inducted into the racing Hall of Fame. Mollie McCarthy lost her next start in the Minneapolis Cup, but in 1879, her last year of racing, she won the prestigious Garden City Cup in Chicago and a purse race in San Francisco. She retired and became a broodmare. Like Ten Broeck, her foals enjoyed only moderate success on the track, although her female progeny did very well when they were retired to breed. The era of the four-milers ended with one of the greatest racing spectacles of the nineteenth century, and resulted in the emergence of Churchill Downs as one of the cathedrals of American racing.

While Lutie Clark was strongly opposed to track officials (and newspapermen) gambling on the races, he had no problem gambling on the stock market. In 1893 when the economy crashed and the New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days, Clark lost almost his entire fortune. His wife had left him to move to Paris with their son John Henry Churchill Clark. The Churchill brothers had become fed up with his antics, and by 1891 relieved him of almost all his duties at the track. For a while he worked as a presiding judge at racetracks around the country, but in April 1899, all but broke, fearful of growing senile and depressed at his isolation from his family he committed suicide in Memphis, Tennessee.

During the 1890’s the fortunes of Lucky Baldwin evaporated. He was an incurable philanderer, fighting off numerous lawsuits from an unending string of mistresses and lovers, and even surviving two shootings. Having lost most of his fortune, Baldwin headed to Alaska to try to cash in on yet another gold rush, but returned to Santa Anita empty handed. He maintained some involvement with horse racing but died in March 1909, still working on amassing another fortune. However, even in death his luck held for his heirs when a worthless piece of property he owned produced the Montebello Oil Fields, one of the biggest finds in the West.

Billy Walker, Ten Broeck’s jockey, had a very successful career after he stopped riding. He worked as a consultant and trainer and was considered the country’s foremost expert on lineage and breeding. He spent his final years as a workout clocker at his beloved Churchill Downs, dying in 1933 at the age of 72.

Churchill Downs succeeded in ways not even Lutie Clark could have imagined. In the early 1890’s the track was still struggling financially and William F. Schulte took over as president. Schulte oversaw the construction of a new grandstand with a set of twin spires on the roof. Those twin spires gave the track, and the Kentucky Derby, the most iconic architectural symbol in racing.

Still the track failed to turn a profit and in 1902 a group headed by Louisville mayor Charles Grainger, Charlie Price and Matt J. Winn agreed to overtake the operation. It was under the leadership of this group that the track began to prosper and the Kentucky Derby began to emerge as the preeminent three year-old race in America. In 1937 the track finally incorporated under the name Churchill Downs and today remains one of the most successful and recognizable operations in the country.

As was common during that period, the match race between Mollie McCarthy and Ten Broeck was memorialized in song. While the actual songwriter is the subject of some dispute, there is no dispute that it was made a bluegrass standard by the legendary Bill Monroe. In 1947, Monroe used “Molly and Tenbrooks” to make the first known recording of a bluegrass song. Even today it is a standard at bluegrass festivals across the country, and recordings are easily found on the Internet.

The song sums up the story of the match race of the century.

Out in California, where Molly done as she pleased

Come back to old Kentucky, got beat with all ease

Beat with all ease, O Lord, beat with all ease

Beat with all ease by the last of the great four-milers.

Selections

Aqueduct April 18

This day is a little different than the last three days. The last three days it looked like there were one or two horses that stuck out in the five horse fields. Today it looks like there are five horses that look like they can win in the five horse field.

Race 1      5-4-2

Howie’s Tiz has been hanging around the maiden ranks for a while and has been off for a year and a half, so he’s not a solid 9-5, but he’s newly gelded and is dropping into a maiden claimer from MSW. In this field those are good reasons to consider him. Sir Rockport switches to David Donk and drops from MSW to MCL. Gets first Lasix and a positive jockey switch to Manny Franco. Salem Loop is the third dropper, has recency at OP, and has figures competitive in this field.

Race 2      4-2

It’s a four horse race. That doesn’t mean there are four contenders in the field. It’s literally a four horse race. And I spent way too much time trying to separate the four horses. La Verdad at the top of her form is far and away the best horse in the race. Mamdooha is riding a five race winning streak, so she has plenty of talent.

Race 3      4-6-3

I’m doing this race for the turf so if it goes main track, ignore the picks. Market Outlook is a new gelding and has the best numbers in the field. Orino has been consistently on the turf and is 50% in the money. Peaceful Talk is the speed of the field and with a comfortable pace may run away from this group.

Race 4      2-7-6

Boss Daddy has the best speed in the field but hasn’t been impressive running through the stretch. Tepid choice. Kodiak Kody has been hanging around at the NW2L for a while but he does have consistent figures. Qui C’est Moi broke his maiden for Abby Adsit two back and should be in the ideal tracking position.

Race 5      4-6

I will tell you in advance that other than the MTO I thought the field was close to equal. In terms of percentages, I’d suggest the difference between the top and bottom horse is only a few points. Vision Perfect has not run a bad race and considering he won at first asking should be ready off the layoff. Zandar was right behind Vision Perfect last time out and may be the value horse.

Race 6      4-3

In this race they all look about the same, and not necessarily in a positive way. Overthespeedlimit didn’t raise a gallop last out but prior to that showed decent speed and drops into a much more likely class. Jacapo seems to be close every time and may have the talent to get win number two.

Race 7      3-5-7

Loon River has the best turf numbers, albeit not by much. Cosmic Serenity broke her maiden at first asking, steadied in her next out and actually ran better than looked last out. A little improvement puts her in the mix. Lady Bing ran her best races on the turf and returns there today.

Race 8      5-6-1

Old Upstart drops to $50K today. Didn’t care for the slop last out but ran two strong numbers in his last two starts at AQU. Erik the Red is at the right level today. Has three thirds on the main and is competitive off his best. Giant Fox is another dropping down to a level where he’s had previous success.

Race 9      1A-6-4

Fundamental lost by 2 1/2 lengths after being checked twice in his maiden voyage. Even from the outside he looks like the strongest contender. Having Chad Brown in your corner can’t hurt. Veya is a 12 start maiden that has recently undergone gelding. Perhaps this improves him enough to break the string. Andalusite has shown improvement each start and has the numbers to be competitive here.

Selections

Aqueduct April 17

I think the card is not very interesting today. There are two eight horse fields and a nine horse field – the average field size today is 7 – and almost all the races the likely winners look like the lowest priced horses. So I’m not going to spend extra time doing a written analysis, but you can be assured that if I did these would be the horses in each race I would write about. Here are my selections.

Race 1      5-3-1

Race 2      6-4-2

Race 3      4-5

Race 4      4-5-7

Race 5      3-4-7

Race 6      2-7-3

Race 7      1-5-2

Race 8      4-7-8

Selections

Aqueduct April 16

The difference between horseracing and life is that in horseracing you pay your taxes every day you play. It’s called the take. Then if you win, you pay again. What a game.

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. (Yesterday that was 6 Hushhushmushmush in the 9th race. He wasn’t one of my top three selections because I did not believe he could win the race. He finished second.)

That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. For example, my top three may be 28% (5-2), 25% (3-1) and 22% (7-2), or they may be 50% (even money), 17% (5-1) and 13% (7-1). Two very different races. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking.

I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note some examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 2-3-6. The 2 went off at 1.30-1, the 3 at 5.70-1 and the 6 at 0.85-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was an overlay, the 2 and the 6 not even close. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 3 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 2 and 6 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $13.40. In the fourth race the selections were 1-4-5. The 1 went off at 0.50-1, the 4 went off at 9.90-1, and the 5 went off at 10.70-1. Both the 4 and 5 were overlays, so the play was to make a nice sized win bet on the 4 and a smaller win bet on the 5. The 4 won and paid $21.80. In those two races, a value player would make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

Race 1      1-5-3

Patria Querida was claimed for $32K in February, ran twice at $40K and finished fourth both times, drops down today in search of the win. Has been over the surface and has a competitive figure. Song Brook broke her maiden at first asking for $25K and did it in a good time on a muddy track. Jumped way up second time out, took the lead and was eased. Has come back with a nice work and would be no surprise to win. Gabby’s Brown waited until her seventh start to break her maiden and this is her first try with winners. Has a competitive number and the currently hot Angel Cruz riding.

Race 2      3-2-4

Piquant broke from the far outside in the Peeping Tom, found his way through the field and won going away.Richard Stoklosa has done very well with limited starters. Extrasexyhippzster was keeping Graded company last year but has proven much more suited for the OC and lower allowance ranks. Still, in this field he is not without chances – his last race at Laurel was a very impressive time.  So Brilliant was off a year and a half before returning in an OC at LRL. He’s obviously a horse with physical issues but if he is healthy and ready to go he is competitive with this group.

Race 3      5-4-7

Street Prince looks like the dominant speed/finish combination here, but has been struggling to break his maiden. Makes a major drop in search of the win. The tepid choice.  Larry Boy is only making his fourth start and seems better suited for the sprint distance. No surprise if he wins. Feverish Loot is the interesting horse. He showed decent speed on the turf and synthetic, but hasn’t shown any heart in the stretch. Was claimed last out by Randi Persaud and as bad as Persaud’s record looks, he’s already won a race on the main this meet and is 12% first off the claim. In this field that may be good enough.

Race 4      6-4-5

Wonderish has been competitive at this level and of the horses that have started looks to have the best number. Filly Idol moves to the Carlos Martin barn and adds blinkers for this trip. Switches to the hot apprentice Cruz and has a good gate work in prep for this one. Good chances. Susan Elaine ran decently first time on the AQU main and Contessa is fair with 2nd timers in his barn.

Race 5      1-2-5

Annie Walker beat $25K NW2 last out, jumps a step to open $25K but given this is statebreds it’s not a real jump in class.Two in a row looks definitely doable. Bella the Bandit returned after nine months on the shelf to comfortably beat $16K NW3 claimers. Figures say she fits with this group and if she doesn’t bounce off the first out effort she’s got the right to win here. Elmra has the best early foot in the race and improved substantially when dropped to this level. Another looking to string a couple together.

Race 6      5-2-4

Beatle Boots ran a good one on the AQU main in her first start, returned in the slop and didn’t do much. Was claimed by Abby Adsit out of that race and and she’s been fair first off the claim. Couple of nice works since moving to the Adsit barn. Looks live and may be at a price. Moonlight Party drops to $30K and moves to the AQU main for this start. In a five race career she hasn’t been on the same surface twice but has the speed to be a factor here. Thomas Knight is the other Contessa starter and has figures good enough to be competitive here.

Race 7      4-2-5

D’princess goes for RuRod after being off 9 months. She’s raced well off shorter layoffs and RuRod is 26% off the long vacation. By far the best early speed and off her best dominates this field. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is another coming off the winter rest and Michelle Nevin is about the equal of RuRod on the layoff. Consistently good numbers when she is in condition. Verismilitude doesn’t have quite the early lick of the 4, but figures legitimately at this class.

Race 8      10-6-5 (14)

Lotza Heat has the best figure on the turf as well as having the most experience on the turf. Making his seventh start, a little bit of a negative, but this is not a first rate field he has to beat. Starago takes the shades off for DiPrima, although he only wore them in his last start. He looks to be improving, and will have to be at his best to lick this field. April Color drops from the MSW ranks for Pletcher and he is 29% with that move. Is decently bred for the turf and may turn out to be the value horse. While I don’t normally offer a fourth horse, Send It In drew in off the AE list and he intrigues me. He has better turf breding than a lot of the field and has Todd Pletcher in his corner. He has one race under his belt and it was better than looked. He had a slightly troubled beginning and ran fairly evenly, actually passing horses in the stretch. Should be odds and I wouldn’t ignore him in the verticals or horizontals.

Uncategorized

Aqueduct April 15

Race 1      4-1-6

Two Seventeen has one good race on the main and a second place at the distance. He seems to be in good shape and has the best recent figures. Clifton Pleasure didn’t care for the Laurel mud and drops down quite a few steps looking for the win. Campion Lane has enjoyed running on the main and at the distance. Could snap back into form here.

Race 2      2-6-3

Whale Rock goes first time for McLaughlin. Sold for six times the stud fee, has some eye-catching workouts and should do well at the distance. True Bet is the most experienced horse in the field and has the best figures of the horses that have previously started. Dean Verdile goes first time for Levine. Lots of gate works recently, perhaps indicating an issue, but they are good works.

Race 3      4-1

Bossy Saratoga has plenty of speed and her last race was her best since fall. Given the other speed signed on she’ll have her work cut out but it doesn’t look like there is a good enough closer to make a difference. Court Dancer held her form afte jumping up to the ALW ranks and has the figures to win the race.

Race 4      1-4-5

David Rocks ran a good one last out and looks like all the speed. Fit to Keep was claimed last out by Sciacca who is 14% first time with a new charge. Has showed a little ability to pass horses and may be good enough in this group. Can’tcatchjack has the figures to pick up the pieces.

Race 5      1-7-4

Barrel of Love is trained by Chad Brown who is exceptional with turf and layoff horses. Horse has run well with state-bred stakes horses and has been consistently close since pairing up with Brown. Blacktype disappointed last year at AQU after running decently on a soft turf in the Hill Prince. Puts the blinkers on and the workout pattern says go. He could be the best horse in the race and we’ll see if he shows it today. Smooth Daddy has been Graded Stakes placed and has a second in his only start over the turf course. Looks legitimate here.

Race 6      2-7-3

Suspicious Mind goes first time for Asmussen and drops to the MCL ranks in search of a win. Scorpion’s Touch showed serious improvement last out, although it may have been the slow fractions that made the difference. Considering there isn’t a lot of classy speed here he might be able to find the top three. El Viejo Verde was gelded since his last start. Has plenty of speed and has three seconds in five starts at the distance.

Race 7      2-5-1

Day Six is one of the few in here with turf experience and has the best numbers by far. Artie Crasher has four decent starts and has been consistent in his figures. Another with turf experience. Social Affair has a win on the AQU turf and comes to this race newly gelded. Hasn’t shown well with winners but is another with plenty of turf experience.

Race 8      3-7-1A

Your Move is the longshot play of the day. She is 33% win, has plenty of early speed  and off her best is the fastest. My Donna Jean dropped to $16K last out and won comfortably. In condition she fits well at the class. Liberty Fuze was snagged by Steve Klesaris last out off a dominating win. The jump up will bring him back to earth but his best numbers make him competitive.

Race 9      2-7-3

The last is a very difficult affair. No horse sticks out and one could make a case for half the field. Assuming none of the AE’s get in, the choice is Crescent Street. He’s shown an ability to hit the front early, and with the drop out of the MSW may hold his speed all the way. Yourthekingjimmy takes the blinkers off and moves to the turf. He’s bred well enough for the distance, although not inspiringly for the turf. Still, he has one very nice six furlong race and the drop back to the sprint should help. Alexa’s spirit may or may not take to the turf, but he is another dropping out of the straight maiden ranks. He has had three consecutive bad starts, and with a clean break we’ll get to see what he can really do. He has some turf breeding in his background. Hushusmushmush is a 13 start maiden with 10 turf starts and is hard to use confidently here. Just saying.

Selections

Kentucky Derby Observations

Sometimes I feel like the Grinch watching all the Who’s down in Whoville incessantly happy and dancing when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Oh, the Derby is a good thing on balance for horseracing. People who could care less about horseracing the other 364 days of the year will faithfully spend time watching, and maybe even betting, the so-called “most exciting two minutes in sports.” But it also the most overrated two minutes in racing. It’s a race for three year olds, and not necessarily even the best of the three year old crop. Trust me – if you think that is heresy, it is only because you have been programmed from birth by endless newspaper articles and over the top TV ads to see the Derby as America’s premier racing experience. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Think about the 2014 Derby. The only horse of the top ten Derby finishers that was in the BC Classic at the end of the season was California Chrome. Bayern, Toast of New York and Shared Belief were non factors in May, but they have all finished ahead of Chrome since the Derby. What does that tell you?

I’ve often used the analogy of high school. Three year old race horses in May are the equivalent of high school juniors and seniors. Remember how there was one guy who was already having to shave every day? A girl that could have passed for twentysomething? Same with thoroughbreds. Some of them are physically ahead of the others, but just like with high school eventually everybody catches up. That’s why they run the Breeders Cup in November.

So what is the relevance of all this? The hype associated with the Derby causes it to be weighted too heavily when assessing which horse should be the champion. But as I said above, on balance the Derby is a good thing for racing.

This week the Derby picture started to come into better focus, and unlike some years, about half of the top flight three year olds made it all the way to the Derby. Far From Over, Texas Red, Ami’s Flatter, Daredevil, Tiz Shea D, and Prospect Park are all off the Derby trail, but the presence of the top four more than makes this Derby interesting. Here is my take at this point in no particular order.

AMERICAN PHARAOH dominated the preps in Arkansas, and despite Bob Baffert’s highest endorsement, there are some negatives.  His breeding doesn’t suggest a mile and a quarter is comfortable. He’s lightly raced, and really hasn’t been tested by a quality field yet. He isn’t likely to be able to just sit and watch the cheaper speed like he did in the Arkansas Derby, and anxious front runners have to be superior to hold in the Derby. ESPECIALLY when he has a stablemate that might be lapping on his side. I’m really on the fence about this horse – on the track races say the likely favorite deserves the accolades, but everything else says the last eighth of a mile will be beyond his ability.   At the moment I’m leaning against AP as the winner, although not as part of the exotics.

CARPE DIEM is another with some ambiguity. He won the Bluegrass in strong fashion, but again didn’t beat any quality challengers. Being a Giant’s Causeway should give him plenty of stamina, but Unbridled Song runners have not had great success in the Derby. Still, on balance, he’s a contender for me.

DORTMUND, like the others, has dominated his weaker competition in California. He’s by a Kentucky Derby winner, so shouldn’t have an issue with the distance, but like the two horses above, he has a close Storm Cat influence, and incredibly Storm Cats have done poorly in the Derby. I said in my last look I’d like t see him make a move from off the pace, and he didn’t. Given the presence of another speed horse (American Pharaoh) you’d have to think his chances are compromised. Still, that SA Derby looked legitimate and the horse is very talented. Previous Derbies have shown that the Baffert horse to watch is usually the one he touts the least, which just may be Dortmund.

UPSTART had not really captured my imagination but now that he’s come down with a fever and missed a breeze, I have a fairly strong inclination to simply drop the horse from contention. I know Violette is giving the “don’t worry if it is just a sinus thing” message, but I think the margins for getting a horse ready are razor thin. Right now he’s a pass for me.

FROSTED is my longshot Derby horse. I really liked the race he ran in the Wood, which may have had the strongest field of any of the preps. He was wide on both turns and closed into a slow pace, and while Tencendour ran the race of his life, Frosted really looked like he was going to run by him the whole stretch. I’m thinking back to the Fountain of Youth where Larry Collmus was all but conceding the race to him at the top of the stretch when he thew the anchor out. McLaughlin made a slew of changes, including a throat procedure, some fast workouts where he had to extend himself to pass horses and a jockey change. Let’s assume that Frosted had won the FOY and then the Wood. Would he be higher than 15th on the Top 10 list? I like that Frosted actually has a point in the last two dosage categories (signifying stamina) and I like that he didn’t leave his best race on the track in one of the preps. I think the Wood is the surprise Derby prep and unless Frosted shows complete dislike for the Churchill Downs surface, he’s where I’m currently leaning.

EL KABEIR was lazy in the Wood but made a reasonable close into the slow pace. I don’t think he’s a likely winner based on all the breeding indicators, but I like his in the money potential.

MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of press that goes something like this – no UAE Derby winner has done much when he comes to Kentucky, but THIS one looks like a real threat. One of the strategies we’ll employ is to look at all the deep closers and put them in the back holes, and on that count Mubtaahij qualifies. I’ll just say that despite the tendency for the tri and super to be filled out with deep closers and plodders, the winner has a a turn of speed that it can use when it needs to. I’m giving the pitch-any-UAE-horse side more weight in the Derby and not considering Mubtaahij in the win slot.

I think the winner comes out of the list above, and between American Pharaoh, Dortmund, and Carpe Diem you’ll be lucky to get 5-1. On the other hand, Frosted is at 15-1 on the early lines and I’m not hearing a lot of buzz about the horse. But he has the right breeding and he looks like he’s coming to the race at the top of his condition. If you’re looking for a tri/super strategy, find the deep closers and maybe assume some of the top flight horses can hang on for a piece.

I’ll do one more right before the Derby after we’ve had a chance to look at the workouts.

Handicapping and Betting

Anatomy of a Winning Day

Saturday April 11 was a day that turned out much better than I thought it might when I first glanced over the card at Aqueduct. I’ve started noting on my selections that my style is to post three horses that I think can win the race and look for the value between the three. I’ve also mentioned that not all top picks are equivalent, and that is an assessment each bettor has to make. Finally, I’ve mentioned that I favor the 50-25-25 distribution of bankroll, or win-exacta-any other bet. I thought this was a good day to see how it all falls together.

Race 1 was a $16K NW3 claiming race with only five going postward. I only selected two horses in this race, 2 John Silver and 4 Blue Chips only. 2 went off at 5-2 while the 4 was 3-2.  On my personal line the 2 was around 8-5 and the 4 around 2-1. Obviously the 4 was not an overlay, and the 2 was hovering on the line for me. In my definition of overlay, the horse has to be at least one and a half times over my line, since this gives a reasonable margin of error. Eventually I decided the race was a no-bet and passed. 2 won the race returning $7.20, 4 finished third.

Race 2 was a $25K NW3 claimer with seven starting. . I selected 2-3-5, Van Frassen, Everydoghashisday, and Can’t Catch Me Now. Van Frassen, as expected went off at 7-5 and was no overlay. On the other hand, Everydoghashisday went off at 10.40-1 and for me was a major overlay. The 5 at 4-1 was close to my odds and therefore not a bet. The play was to bet the 3 to win and an exacta with 2 on top of 3. You might ask why I wouldn’t have reversed the exacta. Simply, any bet with the 3 on top was a win bet, and while the 3-2 certainly would have payed more than the win mutuel, this was really a play in lieu of making a place bet. Remember, I thought the 2 was more likely to win, but the 3 was the value play. You have to overcome your selection oriented mentality to realize the big overlay was the only value win bet. For the sake of calculation, lets use $10 as the win bet play and $5 as the exacta play today (my personal plays are quite a bit larger). In this race then the net profit was $99 ($15 bet, $114 collected).

Race 3 was a $20K open claimer and my selections were 1-2-4, Luckysdream, Shot to Win, and Southbeachsanday. I had the 1 as a strong favorite on my line, but the 1-2 tote board odds were still too low to consider a win bet. Shot to Win went off 3.75-1, and based on my line was a small but bettable overlay. The 4 at 6.80-1 was not an overlay for me. So the bet was a win wager on the 2 and an exacta 1-2. The 1 won the race by the slimmest of margins, with the 2 second and the exacta paying $9.30. This race was very close to a no bet for me, but even with the less desirable outcome, net profit was $8.25.

Race 4 was a MSW and the choices were 4-5-2, Performance Bonus, Good Pick Nick and Summit Moon. 4 went off at 4.30-1, and on my line was not a bettable overlay. 5 went off at 6.30-1 and crept into value range. 2 went off at 10.60-1 and was also in value range. While you’ll read a lot of things that advise against betting two horses in the same race, I think the value proposition will often make you obligated to make that bet. So in this race it was $10 to win on 5, $5 win on 2 (since they weren’t equal no problem reducing the bet), a $2 exacta box 4-5. Only the win bet came in so the net profit was $54.

Race 5 was a statebred allowance and the choices were 5-1-3, Huge Asset, Repent Twice and Groupthink at respective odds of 3.55-1, 3.80-1, 2.10-1. None of the horses was a value play so the race was no bet. The race was won by Native Hero, another 3-1 horse.

Race 6 was a $25K Starter Allowance and the choices were 9-1-2, Bug Juice, Ground Force, and Royal Posse at respective odds of 3.90-1, 1.90-1, 8.50-1. The only win bet was Royal Posse and made a small play with 9 and 1 on top of 2 and a 1-9 exacta box. Ground Force won the race and Bug Juice was edged out of second by Jeter. The net loss was minus $30.

Race 7 was a state-bred allowance and the choices were 5-9-3, Pete’s Fleet, Gypsum Johnny, and Swell at respective odds of 7.80-1, 4.60-1 and 2.85-1. This was a juicy race for me. Gypsum Johnny was a slight overlay, Pete’s Fleet was a much bigger overlay. Swell was not even close to value. On my line the 5 and 9 were fairly close, so I bet both 5 and 9 to win, and played an exacta box. 9 won the race at $11.20, 5 ran second, and the exacta paid $94.50. Net profit was $202 with a $10 win mutuel and a $5 exacta.

Race 8 was the Top Flight Handicap and the choices were 8-2-3, Before You Know It, House Rules, and Joint Return at respective odds of 4.90-1, 0.40-1, and 8.90-1. The 8 was enough of an overlay for a win bet, the 2 was not a win bet and the 3 was on the line for me. I wound up betting both 8 and 3, and betting a 2-8 exacta. 2 won the race, 8 came second and the exacta paid $10.80. Net profit was $7.

Race 9 was a statebred maiden and the choices were 8-1-5, Tricky Zippy, Marc the Sky, and Livi On Love at respective odds of 1.65-1, 11.80-1, and 20.90-1. The 8 was clearly not an overlay for me, but both the 1 and 5 were. I bet both to win and an 8-1 exacta. 8 won the race but neither of the other horses was close. Net loss was $20.

So total for the day was bet$145, collect $459, net profit $314. And that was betting no more than $10 to win and $5 exactas.

If you had wanted to bet a Pick-4 or two, based on my picks you may have missed the first but hit the second. There were also a few possible trifecta bets.

 

The point of this piece was to show how you can make money betting overlays and using the 50-25-25 bankroll distribution. Your picks may have been different than mine, but ask yourself if you had made a value line and determined which horses were overlays, and you employed my strategy of focusing your betting on win and exacta, how much would you have made?

Selections

Aqueduct April 12

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 2-3-5. The 2 went off at 1.0-1, the 3 at 10.40-1 and the 5 at 4.20-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was a major overlay, the 2 was not even close for me. The 5 was about even with my line, so not really a bet. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 3 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 2 and 5 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $22.80. In the seventh race at AQU the picks were 5-9-3. The 5 went off at 7.80-1. The 9 went off at 4.60-1 and the 3 went off at 2.85-1. In my mind, the 5 was a major overlay but the 9 was also an overlay. The 3 was a definite underlay. What to do? A win bet on the 5 and a win bet of half the amount on the 9 AND an exacta box with 5 and 9. It came 9-5 with the exacta paying $94.50. In those two races, a value player would make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

Race 1      4-6-1

This race has the look of a potential speed battle between Percussion and Goodtolook. They are both very fast and if they duel at less than a killing pace they could both survive to the wire. Still, I’m banking on Oltre’ Oro to run past them both. This is a total pace race.

Race 2      6-4-1

Elusive Talmo ran a good one on the inner in the mud a month ago. He figures to be winging to the front and with slight improvement he figures strong in this race. He hasn’t been the mile, but breeding says it shouldn’t be an issue.  Sebonack puts the blinkers on for Pletcher and gets an interesting switch to Saez. He has run the mile but it was an ambiguous race. Still, in this field he has good ous. Greg’s Fourwheeler searches for victory in his eighth start. He’s run the distance but it’s hard to figure any improvement. Still off his best he has to be given a chance.

Race 3      2-6-4

Subtle Humor is one of the two Jacobson runners in a field almost devoid of speed. She has two wins in six starts and while she tried better with no success she’s at the correct level today and figures on top. The othr Jacobson runner, Ridingwiththedevil, has been competitive in most of her races and should be in the battle fo the lead. Has raced with far better in the recent past and has every reason to be battling to the wire. Kleptocrat is 5 of 9 in the money and looks to be the best of the rest.

Race 4      8-3-1

She’s All Even showed good speed in her maiden debut and was close when dropped to this level last December. Has the speed and is well bred for the distance. Not About The Nail has broken poorly in both of her starts and Rodriguez adds the blinkers today in an effort to focus her. With an improved break she’s a contender. Offlee Good has been off since last July and only has one turf sprint on her record. In that race she showed good early foot. Some steady works for the return. At 15-1 ML she’s worth a thought.

Race 5      6-1

Myfourchix drops back to the sprint distance after trying state-bred stakes runners last October. Good workout pattern for the return. Should get the trip. Evrybdymstgetstonz is one that seems to need the lead and should gun from the rail. Whether she hangs on is the question but the scratch of the 2 is a big help.

Race 6      4-1-6

Bow Tie Boss returns to the races after a seventh month layoff. His two year old number tops anything in this field and Jerkens is good off the layoff. The workout pattern looks positive. High I.Q. Pete shows a couple of smart races this year. He has good speed and should be in better condition. Will be the danger to the 4. Knuckle Curve comes from Santa Anita for new trainer Michelle Nevin. His first race he had no chance after the break.  Nevin is 29% first time with a horse.

Race 7      2-3-1A

Possilicious came to life in the mud last out, losing to Gypsum Johnny, a winner yesterday. Claimed by Jacobson and jumped slightly in price, but he fits on figures and speed. Get Creative goes first time for RuRod and looks like he may be the controlling speed. Bad break last out compromised his chances and a better break makes him a major player. Remaining half of Contessa entry doesn’t look quite as inspiring as the top two but I like the angle when the trainer scratches what looks like the stronger part of the entry.  Worth a look.

Race 8      4-5-3

Kate is a Ten is always comptetitive but does have trouble getting to the wire first. Big race last out but had the unfortunate time of running into a dominant Sherifa. Scratch of the 2 seriously elevated her chances. Lutheran Miss is riding a three race winning steak and hasn’t been worse than 2nd since August. Prairie Stone has been better than looked lately. 1 for 1 on the main and 1 for 1 at the distance.

Race 9      8-2-6

Summit County has the best last race figure and drops slightly in price in search of the victory. North Ocean is the speed of the race and his chances went up with the scratch of the 4. Moonluck is 9 of 11 lifetime in the money and should get first jump on the frontrunners. May fit best in this field.

Selections

Aqueduct April 11

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the sixth race my selections were 9-8-10. The 9 went off at 0.60-1, the 8 at 4.20-1 and the 10 at 6.60-1. In this race, for me, the 10 was an overlay, the 9 was not even close for me. The 8 was about even with my line, so not really a bet. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 10 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 10, and perhaps exactas with the 8 and 9 on top of the 10. The 10 won the race and paid $15.20. In the third race at AQU the picks were 2-3-5. The 2 was far dominant in this race and went off at 1.95-1. The 3 went off at 1.95-1 and the 5 went off at 2.05-1. In my mind, the 2 was approaching overlay. The 5 was an underlay and the 3 was a definite underlay. In this race the value bet was a big exacta with the 2 on top of the 3, and maybe a smaller exacta with the 2 on top of 5. The 2 won easily as expected, the 5 easily beat the 3 for the place, keying a $20.80 exacta, an excellent payoff for two horses at about 2-1. In those two races, a value player had a good chance to make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

If you have something else to do, the first three races at AQU might be a good time to do it. They are simply a bad set of races.

Race 1      2-4

John Silver was off a year, came back and did nothing first time but ran a good one last out. Back in shape and he is a major contender. Blue Chips Only drops a bit in price and gets an upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Race2      2-3-5

Van Frassen is fastest off his second last and has been with better recently. Will be low odds and looks deserving. Everydoghashisday is making his 40th start still in search of his third win.  The field is bad enough that he has a real shot. Can’t Catch Me Now has one less start than the 3 and is also looking for win number three. Has some good early foot and may get the jump on these.

Race 3      1-2-4

Luckysdream may be overrated at 4/5 ML but that tells you the quality of the field. Superior early speed and if he runs back to some of his earlier races the ML will be justified. Shot to Win is dropping off a win and has been running consistent figures. Southbeachsandy drops down today in search of a win. More of an in the money type but this is not a powerful field.

Race 4      4-5-2

Performance Bonus is a good-looking Chad Brown trainee with the best lifetime figure in the field. Should much prefer the one turn mile. Bown has high numbers in most categories and the jockey/trainer combination is very strong. Good Pick Nick has been knocking in his last two and should appreciate the distance. Expensive yearling purchase has to be the danger. Tiz for Daddy obviously needed the race. He didn’t have a great finish but certainly is bred well for the distance.

Race 5      5-1-3

Huge Asset has a good turn of early foot but didn’t care much for the AQU slop. Fits well with state-breds at this level. Repent Twice normally has a good pressing style but last out missed the break and closed well to run second. Should revert back to the winning style and is a major contender. Groupthink is the ML favorite but he has had seven chances to get his second win and I’m not sure why today should be the day.

Race 6      9-1-2

Bug Juice should do better in the state-bred ranks. He has a 33% lifetime win recond and owns a win over the main. Ground Force has had good success at seven furlongs. Jason Servis grabbed the horse for $20K and jumped him over his head, drops him back to a more reasonable level. Lots of positives. Royal Posse doesn’t have a great record at AQU but fits the condition well and has a series of good figures leading up to this race.

Race 7      5-9-3

Pete’s Fleet is the price horse selection of the day. He was 10 for 14 in the money last year has a win on the main and is good at the distance. Off his 2014 races he figures the fastest. Gypsum Johnny was claimed last out by Contessa who is not spectacular first off the claim. Has the best last out figure and is looking for three in a row. Swell had some big numbers in 2014. Has been off seven months for low-profile connections but somehow attracts the services of Irad and gets posted as the ML favorite. Have to respect the combination of factors.

Race 8      8-2-4

Before You Know It wired a short field in dominant fashion last out on the inner. Before that was a  major player at LRL. Has consistently good speed figures, a 19% trainer and retains Franco. House Rules won the G3 Rampart two months ago at GP and finished second after a troubled start in the G2 Royal Delta. In top shape and a major player in this one. Joint Return has been spending time in the graded ranks – her last two losses were to Untapable and Stopchargingmaria. Has been off since last September but Servis is 25% off the long rest. Rarely runs a bad race and if she is in shape she is a danger.

Race 9      8-1-5

Ticky Zippy has the top figures and will make it over the top sooner or later. Marc the Sky ran her best race on the AQU main last November and figures to improve with the return to that surface. Has a couple of decent works over the BEL training track. Livi On Love was a match for Tricky Zippy last out but ran well first out. Prospects at 15-1.