The difference between horseracing and life is that in horseracing you pay your taxes every day you play. It’s called the take. Then if you win, you pay again. What a game.
For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. (Yesterday that was 6 Hushhushmushmush in the 9th race. He wasn’t one of my top three selections because I did not believe he could win the race. He finished second.)
That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. For example, my top three may be 28% (5-2), 25% (3-1) and 22% (7-2), or they may be 50% (even money), 17% (5-1) and 13% (7-1). Two very different races. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking.
I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note some examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 2-3-6. The 2 went off at 1.30-1, the 3 at 5.70-1 and the 6 at 0.85-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was an overlay, the 2 and the 6 not even close. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 3 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 2 and 6 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $13.40. In the fourth race the selections were 1-4-5. The 1 went off at 0.50-1, the 4 went off at 9.90-1, and the 5 went off at 10.70-1. Both the 4 and 5 were overlays, so the play was to make a nice sized win bet on the 4 and a smaller win bet on the 5. The 4 won and paid $21.80. In those two races, a value player would make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.
Race 1 1-5-3
Patria Querida was claimed for $32K in February, ran twice at $40K and finished fourth both times, drops down today in search of the win. Has been over the surface and has a competitive figure. Song Brook broke her maiden at first asking for $25K and did it in a good time on a muddy track. Jumped way up second time out, took the lead and was eased. Has come back with a nice work and would be no surprise to win. Gabby’s Brown waited until her seventh start to break her maiden and this is her first try with winners. Has a competitive number and the currently hot Angel Cruz riding.
Race 2 3-2-4
Piquant broke from the far outside in the Peeping Tom, found his way through the field and won going away.Richard Stoklosa has done very well with limited starters. Extrasexyhippzster was keeping Graded company last year but has proven much more suited for the OC and lower allowance ranks. Still, in this field he is not without chances – his last race at Laurel was a very impressive time. So Brilliant was off a year and a half before returning in an OC at LRL. He’s obviously a horse with physical issues but if he is healthy and ready to go he is competitive with this group.
Race 3 5-4-7
Street Prince looks like the dominant speed/finish combination here, but has been struggling to break his maiden. Makes a major drop in search of the win. The tepid choice. Larry Boy is only making his fourth start and seems better suited for the sprint distance. No surprise if he wins. Feverish Loot is the interesting horse. He showed decent speed on the turf and synthetic, but hasn’t shown any heart in the stretch. Was claimed last out by Randi Persaud and as bad as Persaud’s record looks, he’s already won a race on the main this meet and is 12% first off the claim. In this field that may be good enough.
Race 4 6-4-5
Wonderish has been competitive at this level and of the horses that have started looks to have the best number. Filly Idol moves to the Carlos Martin barn and adds blinkers for this trip. Switches to the hot apprentice Cruz and has a good gate work in prep for this one. Good chances. Susan Elaine ran decently first time on the AQU main and Contessa is fair with 2nd timers in his barn.
Race 5 1-2-5
Annie Walker beat $25K NW2 last out, jumps a step to open $25K but given this is statebreds it’s not a real jump in class.Two in a row looks definitely doable. Bella the Bandit returned after nine months on the shelf to comfortably beat $16K NW3 claimers. Figures say she fits with this group and if she doesn’t bounce off the first out effort she’s got the right to win here. Elmra has the best early foot in the race and improved substantially when dropped to this level. Another looking to string a couple together.
Race 6 5-2-4
Beatle Boots ran a good one on the AQU main in her first start, returned in the slop and didn’t do much. Was claimed by Abby Adsit out of that race and and she’s been fair first off the claim. Couple of nice works since moving to the Adsit barn. Looks live and may be at a price. Moonlight Party drops to $30K and moves to the AQU main for this start. In a five race career she hasn’t been on the same surface twice but has the speed to be a factor here. Thomas Knight is the other Contessa starter and has figures good enough to be competitive here.
Race 7 4-2-5
D’princess goes for RuRod after being off 9 months. She’s raced well off shorter layoffs and RuRod is 26% off the long vacation. By far the best early speed and off her best dominates this field. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is another coming off the winter rest and Michelle Nevin is about the equal of RuRod on the layoff. Consistently good numbers when she is in condition. Verismilitude doesn’t have quite the early lick of the 4, but figures legitimately at this class.
Race 8 10-6-5 (14)
Lotza Heat has the best figure on the turf as well as having the most experience on the turf. Making his seventh start, a little bit of a negative, but this is not a first rate field he has to beat. Starago takes the shades off for DiPrima, although he only wore them in his last start. He looks to be improving, and will have to be at his best to lick this field. April Color drops from the MSW ranks for Pletcher and he is 29% with that move. Is decently bred for the turf and may turn out to be the value horse. While I don’t normally offer a fourth horse, Send It In drew in off the AE list and he intrigues me. He has better turf breding than a lot of the field and has Todd Pletcher in his corner. He has one race under his belt and it was better than looked. He had a slightly troubled beginning and ran fairly evenly, actually passing horses in the stretch. Should be odds and I wouldn’t ignore him in the verticals or horizontals.