For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 2-3-5. The 2 went off at 1.0-1, the 3 at 10.40-1 and the 5 at 4.20-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was a major overlay, the 2 was not even close for me. The 5 was about even with my line, so not really a bet. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 3 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 2 and 5 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $22.80. In the seventh race at AQU the picks were 5-9-3. The 5 went off at 7.80-1. The 9 went off at 4.60-1 and the 3 went off at 2.85-1. In my mind, the 5 was a major overlay but the 9 was also an overlay. The 3 was a definite underlay. What to do? A win bet on the 5 and a win bet of half the amount on the 9 AND an exacta box with 5 and 9. It came 9-5 with the exacta paying $94.50. In those two races, a value player would make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

Race 1      4-6-1

This race has the look of a potential speed battle between Percussion and Goodtolook. They are both very fast and if they duel at less than a killing pace they could both survive to the wire. Still, I’m banking on Oltre’ Oro to run past them both. This is a total pace race.

Race 2      6-4-1

Elusive Talmo ran a good one on the inner in the mud a month ago. He figures to be winging to the front and with slight improvement he figures strong in this race. He hasn’t been the mile, but breeding says it shouldn’t be an issue.  Sebonack puts the blinkers on for Pletcher and gets an interesting switch to Saez. He has run the mile but it was an ambiguous race. Still, in this field he has good ous. Greg’s Fourwheeler searches for victory in his eighth start. He’s run the distance but it’s hard to figure any improvement. Still off his best he has to be given a chance.

Race 3      2-6-4

Subtle Humor is one of the two Jacobson runners in a field almost devoid of speed. She has two wins in six starts and while she tried better with no success she’s at the correct level today and figures on top. The othr Jacobson runner, Ridingwiththedevil, has been competitive in most of her races and should be in the battle fo the lead. Has raced with far better in the recent past and has every reason to be battling to the wire. Kleptocrat is 5 of 9 in the money and looks to be the best of the rest.

Race 4      8-3-1

She’s All Even showed good speed in her maiden debut and was close when dropped to this level last December. Has the speed and is well bred for the distance. Not About The Nail has broken poorly in both of her starts and Rodriguez adds the blinkers today in an effort to focus her. With an improved break she’s a contender. Offlee Good has been off since last July and only has one turf sprint on her record. In that race she showed good early foot. Some steady works for the return. At 15-1 ML she’s worth a thought.

Race 5      6-1

Myfourchix drops back to the sprint distance after trying state-bred stakes runners last October. Good workout pattern for the return. Should get the trip. Evrybdymstgetstonz is one that seems to need the lead and should gun from the rail. Whether she hangs on is the question but the scratch of the 2 is a big help.

Race 6      4-1-6

Bow Tie Boss returns to the races after a seventh month layoff. His two year old number tops anything in this field and Jerkens is good off the layoff. The workout pattern looks positive. High I.Q. Pete shows a couple of smart races this year. He has good speed and should be in better condition. Will be the danger to the 4. Knuckle Curve comes from Santa Anita for new trainer Michelle Nevin. His first race he had no chance after the break.  Nevin is 29% first time with a horse.

Race 7      2-3-1A

Possilicious came to life in the mud last out, losing to Gypsum Johnny, a winner yesterday. Claimed by Jacobson and jumped slightly in price, but he fits on figures and speed. Get Creative goes first time for RuRod and looks like he may be the controlling speed. Bad break last out compromised his chances and a better break makes him a major player. Remaining half of Contessa entry doesn’t look quite as inspiring as the top two but I like the angle when the trainer scratches what looks like the stronger part of the entry.  Worth a look.

Race 8      4-5-3

Kate is a Ten is always comptetitive but does have trouble getting to the wire first. Big race last out but had the unfortunate time of running into a dominant Sherifa. Scratch of the 2 seriously elevated her chances. Lutheran Miss is riding a three race winning steak and hasn’t been worse than 2nd since August. Prairie Stone has been better than looked lately. 1 for 1 on the main and 1 for 1 at the distance.

Race 9      8-2-6

Summit County has the best last race figure and drops slightly in price in search of the victory. North Ocean is the speed of the race and his chances went up with the scratch of the 4. Moonluck is 9 of 11 lifetime in the money and should get first jump on the frontrunners. May fit best in this field.