Picks are for a fast dirt and a firm turf. The first three races feature fairly short fields and favorites that stick out.

Race 1. Familyofroses has had good success at BEL and seems to run better figures on the BEL dirt. The Danny Gargan entry both look good, with Majestic Jessica probably stronger than Champagne Ruby. Moondance Joy has had good success on the dirt, including a win in four tries at BEL.  Primary 2-1-4  Secondary (5)

Race 2.  One More Round ships in from the West Coast for A C Avila. He looks best although I don’t know if he deserves 3/5. Proud Zip takes a price drop today and has competitive figures. Dunk a Din drops out of MSW down to this level today and should be competitive if he runs back to his CD races. Primary 4-6-3 

Race 3.  Roca Rojo will be an even bigger favorite than the previous race favorite. She came from Ireland to win a 7F race at BEL and disappointed at SAR, but off her best does look like a single. Primary 5  Secondary (2, 4)

Race 4.  Lots of first time starters in this MCL sprint. Rosa Dorata and Preziosa  go first time for RuRod and he is strong with two year olds. Tainted has a few starts and finally drops out of MSW and into the claiming ranks. That should help her to be more competitive. Twofreeknights didn’t care for the sloppy SAR dirt. She didn’t break well, and never really got into the race. She adds blinkers today.  Primary 1-8-6  Secondary (4)

Race 5.  Dream Man has had good success at the distance and on the BEL turf. Figures are very reliable. Tuscan Getaway has been off since March. He has a lot seconds and thirds compared to wins, but does have the talent to be a contender here. Dendrite is another with trouble getting to the winner’s circle but has prospects to be part of the verticals.  Primary 8-5-4  Secondary (1, 2, 6)

Race 6.  Madison Blues comes off a maiden win at $40K and comes back at the right level in her first with winners. Magnesia Big Girl takes a small drop looking for her second win. She always seems to give an honest effort. Sauvignon makes a drop from a $50K starter allowance into this lower level claimer. Should be in a good striking position in the stretch drive.  Primary 3-10-6 Secondary (8)

Race 7.  Fulmer came off a two year layoff to run a decent race at BEL and an improved race in his second start at SAR. This is the third off the layoff and should be the top effort. Prophet’s Cat has had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle but has been running competitively at this level. Ordinaire looks to be the speed in this race and has run good figures in his last two.  Primary 9-11-1  Secondary (4, 6, 8, 10)

Race 8.  Lady Kreesa has been running well lately and she is back on her favorite track. Could be good value at post time. Welcoming comes out of a series of minor stakes where she didn’t embarrass herself. Koala Queen ships in from Maryland where she hasn’t run a bad race lifetime. Despite the apparent rise in price, she has the figures to be competitive with this group. Primary 2-7-8-12  Secondary (4, 10, 11)

Race 9. Tough closer today. Wake Up Smiling is 5 of 6 in the money and has the best lifetime figure. One of the entry of Rock Ave. Road and Town Fair is not going to go. Of the two I think the latter is the strongest part of the entry. Dorothy’s Dream had a little trouble at the gate last out but still ran evenly. Should improve with a clean trip.  Primary 6-1-9  Secondary (3, 4, 7)

Race 1.  Natalie Victoria runs well at BEL and is dropping in price for this run. You can excuse her last race because of the poor start, but prior to that she was in great shape. Langfirst just won in a NW3 for $15K and moves to open company for a slightly lower price. She’s run lately on the turn but has a win on the BEL dirt. Silver Stance is 5 of 8 at the distance and comes off a good run at SAR.  Primary 5-3-1

Race 2.  Nothing tricky here. Barbie Stones will have to close to win the race but she’s got the top figures and looked good coming off nearly a year layoff. Brooklyn Gal showed some speed last out and looks to be on the improve. Show River had a troubled start last out but still managed to get into the race. Much tougher if he gets out of the gate. Primary 5-7-8

Race 3. Another race where the ML favorites will be tough. Hot Dudette and Ducasa have the top figures and the top front running ability. Primary 1-2-5  Secondary (4)

Race 4.  A couple of Euro shippers look tough in here. Chicadoro ships in and gets the services of Christophe Clement as trainer. He flopped in a Grade 2 but prior to that was competitive. Texting broke his maiden at BEL and returned with a nice race against NW1X horses. Earring was and Aidan O’Brien horse that comes here after just missing in a G2 at the Curragh. No surprise if he comes home on top. Primary 6-2-5  Secondary (3)

Race 5.  ML favorite Imflatoutsweet takes a serious tumble down the price ladder today and that may be enough to propel her to the win. However, she doesn’t look like 8-5 to me so look for value. Ellenvellyn broke her maiden at BEL and ran well in her return in a $40K race at SAR. Rio Vista is another that has success at BEL Should be near the front early and could old on. Primary 1-6-7  Secondary (8)

Race 6.  Another race where the favorites are the likeliest winners. J. J. Jake and James Lane look best. Altesino has a nice workout pattern and picks up Jose Ortiz.  Primary 7-8  Secondary (1, 4, 6)

Race 7. Sunset Knoll was claimed last out by Danny Gargan. In that race the horse sprinted out to a long early lead but didn’t fade that badly in the stretch. Should try the same front running strategy today and if rated correctly should be tougher to catch. Voila La Victoire takes a price drop today in search of a win. She runs consistent figures and the last time she won it was at this price. Saratoga Smoke drops from state-bred allowances to this claimer. Switch to Jose Ortiz should help today.  Primary 9-8-5  Secondary (1, 4)

Race 8.  Buffalo Miss has run well at BEL and had a smashing win in a maiden claimer at SAR. Should be the one to catch. Barrier to Entry comes out of an open $40K claimer where she ran well. She’s moved to the Linda Rice barn since then and she is 29% with new charges. I Hope You Dance is the other Linda Rice horse and ran her best race when switched to the turf. Primary 1-6-7  Secondary (2, 3)

Race 9.  Just the Zip goes second off the claim for Gary Contessa. He was steadied at the start last out but still stayed in the race the whole way. In his previous race at BEL he ran a big figure. Much better than his 12-1 ML odds. Virga drops out of MSW into this MCL spot. He’s got a good second at BEL and two good figures in his last two. Tracking Stock comes off a good second at this price at SAR. Has a second and two thirds in three starts at BEL.  Primary 2-5-1  Secondary (12)

Race 1.  No real insight for me in this one. Leitrim is the speed in here and was claimed by Abby Adsit last out. She is decent 1st off the claim. Toohottoevenspeak was coming in the stretch last race and may appreciate the extra furlong. Saratoga Sight was finally dropped back to the level at which he was claimed, and promptly neglected to catch the break last out. With a better break he has a chance, although a 0 for 35 jockey has to give some pause. Primary 7-6-2  Secondary (3)

Race 2.  Another race that looks formful. Hemsworth was off very slowly in the last race but still managed to pass horses. Albertrani is not known for his success with first timers but does better once his horses have had a race. Baseline is the other Albertrani runner and should be the one to catch. Adulation ran well in the same race as Baseline and makes sense here today.  Primary 1-5-6  Secondary (2)

Race 3.  Very competitive race. I think you can make a case for most of the horses in here. Banner Bill will get bet here but ran well in his second off a layoff at SAR. He was claimed out of that one by Cannizzo, and off his best he’s competitive in this field. A.P. Cino has been reliable in his career, finishing in the money in half his starts. He was claimed last out by Michelle Nevin and she is a good 21% 1st off the claim. Derby Glass has had a good 2016 and has been running consistent numbers. Primary 5-2-4  Secondary (1, 3, 6)

Race 4.  Two year old maiden state bred fillies on the dirt. Amapola has two fast races, including an impressive win in her maiden start at GP where she won by 10 only to be DQ’d back to 6th. Accepting seems primed by Jerkens and picks up Johnny V for the race. Jamison ‘n Ginger ran well at SAR and could be in a good striking position in the stretch.  Primary 5-7-2 Secondary (8, 9, 12)

Race 5. Another race where I have no insight. Conquest Enforcer, Too Discreet, and Front Pocket Money look strongest in here. Primary 6-5-3

Race 6.  Another two year old maiden fillies race, this one at a mile on the turf. I’m not sure why Via Frattina is 15-1 on the ML, but here maiden race was better than looked after being steadied at the start.  I’d be surprised to see her at those odds come post time. Cost Bella is the Chad Brown entrant and he is exceptional with maiden turf fillies. Castellans rides at around 30% for Brown. Compelled had a nice sprint start at SAR and is well bred for today’s distance. Primary 5-10-8  Secondary (1, 9)

Race 7.  The entry of Adulator and Securitiz  looks strong in here. Either one is a threat to win. Doyouknowsomething has been competitive at this price and has done well enough to run in a couple of graded events this year. The jockey switch to Castellano should be a positive. Transparent and Storming Monarcho both have outs in this race. It’s unlikely both will go, but I’ll stick with whichever one DJ leaves in. Primary 1-6-2

Race 8.  This ALW NW1X is full of contenders, some at nice prices. Artie Crasher had been off nine months but came out and ran a decent race. He had a troubled start in that one, but still ran evenly. Clearly he needed the start and should improve today. Performance Bonus is the heavy ML favorite, but his figures are not any better than the top choice. The Brown/Castellano combo pretty much ensures he will be overbet. One Sided goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He doesn’t have a turf start but has the best lifetime numbers. Primary 2-3-10  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 10.  Danny’s Rush makes his third start for Mott. In his last start he clipped heels early, losing his best chance. Still he kept on and with a clean trip he should be more competitive. Moving toward the inside from the far outside has to help. Shiraz was another breaking from the outside and improves post slightly today. Horoscope showed speed in an off the turf affair and should be the one to catch today. Primary 4-7-8  Secondary (1, 9, 10)

Race 1. For a short field I thought there were a lot of contenders, and then I went and made the favorites the top two. Grey Glory won won convincingly last out at SAR, drops slightly in price but steps up to the next condition. Top last race figure. Boomerang Toy came to SAR and ran two strong races, winning on a day that favored speed but doing it with energy to spare. To the Victor has a lot of starts but drops to a more benign level today. Fairly consistent figures. Primary 3-5-4  Secondary (2, 6)

Race 2.  Another race with a lot of contenders. Tambourin was claimed last out by Danny Gargan and he is 23% first of the claim. The horse didn’t really get out last time but if he can replicate his first effort in America he could be the winner. Special Ops just missed at SAR and drops in price today. Good set of figures for this run. Smokey Brown is better than his 12-1 ML odds might indicate. He’s been consistent and has been competitive at BEL.  Primary  5-6-1A  Secondary (3, 4, 7)

Race 3.  The 1 and 2 look very good in here. Comfort ran a strong second to Frosted in the Whitney. Touchofstarquality has run well in restricted stakes and has figures nearly that of the top choice.  Primary 1-2  Secondary (3, 4, 5)

Race 4.  Adirondack Dancer has a good record on the BEL turf, although I’d like to see more wins and fewer seconds. Has good tactical speed and the top last race figure. Wicked Freud steps up to a route but last time Should have no problem with the stretch-out. Sanctify passed on a spot Friday for this one. Mott is generally known as a trainer who likes to race his horses into Primary  2-1A-3  Secondary  (4, 5)

Race 5.  Nothing special to look at here. Divine Interventio, Afleet Martini and Made of Steel look best and will be bet by the crowd. Primary 3-6-7

Race 6.  Another race where the favorites look best. Moonlit Garden, Berned and Blind Pool get the nod for me.

Race 7.  Ticonderoga looks best, but will likely be a heavy favorite.  Ultron had a troubled start last out, pressed the pace and faded. Still, that was a nice improvement over his first start. Kiss the Toad improved substantially when moved to a turf route. Could give the top choice a real run for the top money. Primary 6-2-9  Secondary (1, 3)

Race 8.  Startwithsilver hasn’t run a bad race in her lifetime. She didn’t break sharply in either of her SAR races but she has a win at the distance and on the BEL turf. Dangerous at her best. My Kinda Gal is another that likes BEL and the distance. Consistent figures lately.  Uncle Southern looked strong in his return to the turf and has shown well in his prior BEL efforts. Primary 6-9-3  Secondary (1, 2, 4)

Race 9. I liked Araqeel in his SAR start when he was trained by Chad Brown. He was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen but he still has the top figures in the field. Inventor’s Gate ran a good race last out at SAR. Low key connections suggest a good price may be in the offing. Ross J Dawg has only been worse than 4th once lifetime and picks up Castellano for the ride today. Data Driven is the Chad Brown entrant and may wind up going favorite. The numbers look a little lighter than the top choices here, but he wouldn’t be a surprise. Primary 5-9-4-2

Race 10.Wide open closing race. I’m looking at Louisiana Lady at 10-1 ML. Leo O’Brien isn’t the same dominant trainer of NY beds he once was, but he still has some talent. The horse had to go out fast from the inside post last time but is in a much better spot today. Unspoken Mission had all kinds of trouble last out but still only missed by 3 lengths. Very much a contender with a clean trip. Discreet Image could have been looking for a race with winners but was barely caught last out. No reason to expect a lesser effort today. Primary 6-7-9  Secondary (4, 10, 12)

Opening day of the fall Belmont meeting. Not a great card but I have a few longshot prospects.

Race 1.  While Chomsky may get a lot of action he has had 16 starts and mostly seconds and thirds. I’m going to give him a lesser chance in this race. Play Big drops out of MSW into the claiming ranks. He came off a seven month layoff and showed good speed in his return at SAR. Glennevan jumped up slightly last out but returns to this level today. He has primarily been routing but I like his chances on the distance cutback. DJ seems to have Tree Top Lover moving in the right direction and he has the figures to be a factor today.  Primary 6-1-7  Secondary (2)

Race 2.  Not a tricky race for me. Neoclassic and Winter Springs are likely to go favorite and are the first two choices. East Bay Lodge is the one that interests me a little. He has some negatives – 13 starts at BEL without cracking the top three – but I like his potential at today’s distance. Not a horse to go crazy on, but might be worth a couple of bucks. Primary 7-8-9-2

Race 3.  With the scratch of Juba this race looks like a two horse affair between Ocean Knight and Protonic.  Primary 1-3  Secondary (5)

Race 4.  Another race where it looks like the horses that will be bet look best. Mission Leader goes first time for Kieran McLaughlin. I like price they paid and I think the workout pattern looks positive. Mission Command looked strong in his SAR race and looks like the one to beat. Dab had a good effort in his maiden race.  Primary 2-6-3  Secondary (5)

Race 5. Decent came of a five month layoff to just miss at SAR. Consistent figures and should improve today. Dr. Dorr came to SAR for Bob Baffert and ran a good one. I like that he stays in NY for a comeback. Lord of Love has a lot of starts but has good prospects in the verticals.  Primary 9-1-2  Secondary (3, 6)

Race 6. Not a lot of insight here. Mighty Moses, Basic Hero and Market Sentiment. Primary 4-2-3  Secondary (5, 7)

Race 7. This is a very competitive race.  Manoffire had been off 10 moths when he returned at SAR. He ran well in that race and should improve today. Low-key connections are a concern, but the odds will be right. Whiskey Seven is two for two in his short career and picks up Javier Castellano for the ride. Banana Thief has been running steady figures and has run well of the short layoff.  Primary 2-9-5  Secondary (1, 4, 5, 8)

Race 8.  Most Beautiful makes her stateside debut. Overseas she was a G3 winner and is competitive on figures. Ava’s Kitten is 2 of 3 on the BEL turf and goes for the hot Chad Brown. Sky My Sky ran well in the Lake George and has competitive figures. Primary 1-5-6  Secondary (3, 7, 10)

Race 9. Competitive finale. I’m swinging for the fences with Catapult Jack and Schout Bay get the primary nod, while the likely crowd favorites, Kopper Wired and Heavenly Sun are contenders. Primary 2-10-4-5  Secondary (12)

Last day of a profitable SAR meeting for me. The first two weeks of the meeting were slim, but starting the third week I went on a nice run of good priced winners, Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s, and some fat exactas. I’m thinking about how much I’ll be posting selections for Belmont. I’m behind on my new book, the working title of which is., Why do I Lose, and I need to start posting more blogs. So we’ll see what happens leading up to the Breeder’s Cup, but I’ll be active with picks at least part of the time through the BC.

Race 1.   Lot of races where the favorites look good and the price horses don’t. This is one of them. Not a great amount of analysis. Instant Replay, Skill Not Luck, and Don’t Point.  Primary 4-3-2

Race 2. Kangaroo Style is a multi-start maiden that has been given some time off by Michelle Nevin. He’s been working steadily for a month and at his best certainly has competitive numbers. Dancer’s Edge ran a good one in an off the turf affair three weeks ago and looks better meant for the turf. Worth a look at the odds. There Goes Ben runs for RuRod, and while he’s a 10-start maiden, he’s got some positives, including RuRod’s 19% number off the layoffs. Primary 4-9-6  Secondary (1, 2, 3, 5)

Race 3. Once again the favorites look best to me, but there are a few extra contenders. Request, Ectot, and Street Fashion.  Primary 1-6-3  Secondary  (4, 5)

Race 4.  This race is wide open but I went with the Pletcher/Velasquez runner Commandeering. Lenstar has a race where he showed speed and no reason to expect he’ll try a new strategy today. Moves Like Ali sold for 25 times his stud fee and Jeremiah Englehart is not too bad with first time starters. Primary 1-9-6

Race 5.  Another race where the favorites seem to look best. Primary 1-4-7  Secondary (4)

Race 6.  Another race where I have no real insight into the longer priced horses. Primary 2-6-3

Race 7.  Seems like the races are either obvious or have a ton of contenders. Par goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He’s coming off a good second at a slightly longer distance and has enough speed to stay near the pace and close late. Know Your Customer has to overcome the far outside post but he showed good speed in winning his last start and has first rate connections. Liberal Spin has competitive figures if you put a line through his last. Primary 8-12-4  Secondary (1, 2,4)

Race 8.  Not a lot of prior form to go on. I’m gong with Bid List who gets top rider Jose Ortiz and comes in with a steady series of drills for Asmussen who is 19% with 1st timers. Mint Condition has some nice works in his pattern, including her last that indicates he should be competitive early. Krazy Kathy goes for RuRod and Irad gets up. Could be up against it out of the one, but at 12-1 she has my interest.  Primary 3-4-1  Secondary (5, 8, 9)

Race 9.  Both halves of the 1 entry, Ocean Knight and Iron Fist, look live in here, so they get the nod. All Star Red had a little trouble getting into the last race but his figure off the Vanderbilt is still one of the better in the race. Seems to have a great liking for the distance. J S Bach has been gelded since his last and I always give a little extra credit for that equipment change. His numbers from the OC$80K races put him in the mix.  Primary 1-10-4  Secondary (8, 9)

Race 10.  Gotachancetodance has done well both at the distance and at Saratoga, although he ran longer distances at the end of last year. She’ll have to be at her best considering she’s making her debut against some decent runners. Mexican Gold ships over from France where he was in the stable of top trainer Andre Fabre. He doesn’t lose anything in the switch to Chad Brown who is 24% with Euro shippers. Kitzy’s Rocket is 2 of 3 at SAR and her top number is competitive with any of these.  Primary 6-3-9  Secondary (1, 2, 7)

Race 11.  The favorites look strong here, but there are some horses that could surprise. Off the Tracks ran big in the Test to Paola Queen and should be the one to catch here. Appealing Maggie is a good young sprinter and moves up to graded company today. I like improving three year olds and at 6-1 she looks like she might be the value. Coppa has been lightly raced but her figures suggest she is in the mix today.  Primary 7-5-6  Secondary (1, 9, 10)

Race 12.  Not a lot of info in the PPs of the horses here, so you may have to go deep in the horizontals. My Fair Lilly, Salty Mo, and Fired Up Sensation are the ones I’ve settled on. Primary 1-2-5  Secondary (4, 6, 10)

This last weekend has a number of very competitive races, and I’ll be walking to the windows very carefully in most of the races.

You may have noticed a slight change in the format of the selections. I’m still giving out the top three picks, but I have added secondary picks. This is mainly to give people interested in the verticals some options in the back holes. It also gives people looking to go deep in the horizontals some other considerations.

Race 1.  E Warfare ran well on a sloppy SAR track a month ago, and came back in a turf sprint where she didn’t break sharply but still showed some interest. Puts blinkers on today and gets a new rider in Irad Ortiz. Should be right on the lead and with a good break may be hard to catch. Sea Pebble has three seconds in a row with one of them her only start on the turf. Hard trying horse should be close up early. Uptown Liza ran a new top last out and seems to have taken well to the turf.  Primary 3-9-11  Secondary (7, 10)

Race 2.  This is a really competitive field. Gentrify didn’t appear to care for the turf last out but prior to that he was competitive with horses slightly below this group. Low key trainer is a concern, but the 6-1 odds create some interest. Money Changer finished second at this level last out and has enough speed to get a decent spot on the inside. Pletcher won’t give up the training title without a fight. Roll Tide Roll jumps up off a win for $25K. Servis is 23% second off the claim. Primary 3-1-8  Secondary (5, 6, 7, 9)

Race 3.  Apartfromthecrowd goes for Brown/Castellano and while Gio Ponti progeny have not shown the same ability their sire showed on the turf, the trainer/jockey combo is high percentage with first timers on the turf. Frostmourne is a Speightstown and his progeny are very good in their maiden starts.  He’s Cheeky goes first time for RuRod who is 20% with debut horses.  Primary 3-5-6  Secondary (7)

Race 4.  Tapwrit was sold for $1.2 million as a yearling and has solid connections in his corner. Have to assume he’s in to run. Westwood has a good workout pattern going into this one. Bernardini progeny are usually excellent at the sprint distances. South Sea goes second time for Bill Mott. Mott is not known for his skill with first time starters, but this one ran pretty well.  Primary 3-9-4  Secondary (2, 7, 8) 

Race 5.  This is looking like an “all” race unless Camelot Kitten is as good as the ML odds look. He does seem to be the class of the race with pretty much nothing but graded races in his past performances. Have to give him top billing, but he’s not miles ahead of the others in here. Strike MIdnight just missed to the top choice in the Hall of Fame. Castellano goes elsewhere today so Manny Franco picks up the mount. Isotherm was racing with the best juveniles last year and gets a good jockey switch to Johnny V today.  Primary 2-4-6  Secondary (1, 3, 5)

Race 6.  Changewilldoyagood ran a lifetime top last out in a race with Copingaway who is running in the Saranac, the previous race. Depending on how that one runs you may want to upgrade or downgrade the choice here. Request generally runs longer distances, but has had success at today’s trip. Third start off the layoff today. Nonna’s Boy looks like the speed of the field but he did look good in the Oceanport and the first two in that race were legitimate stakes runners. I like the speed angle.  Primary 3-8-10  Secondary (6)

Race 7.  Kahramani had trouble at the break last out but still showed some interest. Best figure of the horses that have raced. Outrun goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez and given Johnny V opts for this one he may be the they one TAP thinks might have a brighter future. Casses Story has looked good in his previous starts, but he needs to make it home first soon. Primary 1-3-8  Secondary (4) 

Race 8.  Another race full of contenders. New York Chrome is riding a three race win streak and is one of a number of horses with competitive numbers. Beeks looks like he should be dueling up front and with some improvement he’s in the mix at good odds. Neolithic came off an eight month vacation to run a good second and he certainly needed the race. His figure really improved from last year and that may propel him to the top of this field. Primary 9-4-10  Secondary (1, 8, 12, 13)

Race 9.  The Spinaway come up with a competitive field headed by the Pletcher/Velasquez trainee Cherry Lodge. She ran a big number first time out and Johnny V opted to ride her instead of Sweet Loretta. Runway Doll won by a city block in the slop last out but she is a legitimate contender here. Sweet Loretta, the other Pletcher runner has a win in the Schuylerville and given she comes from slightly off the pace, the stretch out should be in her favor.  Primary 5-3-1  Secondary (6)

Race 10.  Frosted is in an amazing funk this summer and there is no reason to believe he is coming to the end of the run. Trying to beat him may be futile, but if he happens to falter, the horizontals will be big overpays. Primary 3  Secondary (1, 4, 6, 9)

Race 11.  Guapaza is on a two race win streak and recently won the Waya. She’ll be the favorite, but is a must use in the horizontals. Photo Call had the lead in the Waya before faltering, but she’s been reliable in these races. At 10-1 ML she’s in the mix for me. Itsonlyactingdad comes off a win in the G3 Matchmaker and always seems to be in the mix at the end.  Primary 3-2-8  Secondary (1, 6, 10)

Race 12.  Really wide open affair as you can tell from the ML odds line. I’m going away from the ML favorite with Hockey School, Blackout, and Gio’s Calling.  Primary 2-9-10  Secondary (1, 3, 4, 5)

Race 1.  The Lost Tigress ships in from FL although she’s been here before and has a second to show for it. She’s got plenty of natural speed and she rarely runs a bad race. Chickaletta is on a two race win streak including her last one at SAR. Seems to have stayed in good condition this year. Aix En Provence has a lot of starts but she’s still running well.  Primary 4-3-1  Secondary (7)

Race 2.  Munchkin Money is likely to go favorite on the strength of being trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano. She improved when dropped into the MCL ranks last out and really had no place to run in the stretch. Sneaky Fudge Face has been getting better with each start and last out ran well to the stretch. Weekend Hottie has a lot of thirds and may be useful in the verticals.  10-7-8

Race 3.  Sly Tom was claimed last time by Joe Sharp who has had a decent SAR meet. The blinkers go on today and Sharp is 14% with the move. Disard his last and prior to that he has the top figure. Dujac makes his 2016 debut for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Last year he ran well and his three year old figures suggest he’s competive here Matador ran ok on the dirt last out but in his prior race he ran competitively on the turf.  Primary 5-6-7  Secondary (1, 4, 9)

Race 4. Kenyan improved when dropped into the MCL ranks and takes another tumble down the ladder today. Good rider switch to Jose Ortiz. Buckwellspent ran his best career race last out on the SAR dirt. Fits well in this group. Celtic Scout moves back to the dirt and turns back in distance. Good chance based on dirt figures.  Primary 9-1-5  Secondary (2)

Race 5.  Luckystrikedelcoco is much better placed in this race and Castellano taking the mount is a positive. Marabea has been running consistently and is making a big drop in price today. Expect him to be running in the stretch. Electro Peg ran well when placed on the SAR turf. Off his best figure he’s competitive here. Primary 4-6-7  Secondary (2, 9)

Race 6. This is a wide open affair and it’s best to go with the higher priced horses with top two year old trainers. That makes the choices Black Canary, K J Warrior, and Orechchiette. Primary 7-9-4  Secondary (1, 2)

Race 7. Very competitive race and I’m going with First Service and Wonder Gal to make the exacta. The latter is the class of the field and the only thing keeping her from going odds on is is that she’s making her 2016 debut. If Wonder Gal runs to her 2015 form she may be hard to beat. Primary 1-2  Secondary (3)

Race 8.  Totally wide open race. Two Pump ran a good race at this distance on the turf early in the meet for a much higher price. She flopped in her subsequent try on the dirt, but if she runs to that earlier effort she’s competitive. Goodbye Sorrow ran a lifetime top while finishing second at this distance. She’s got plenty of speed and should have the shortest route to the wire. Sunrise Kitty has been in the mix pretty much every race and has a second and third in three tries on the SAR turf. Primary 3-9-7

Race 9.  I’m inclined to consider this an “all” race since every horse has a chance. A look at the ML shows no horse is greater than 5-1. Royal Posse is the horse to beat. He won the Alydar at SAR and ran a field topping figure doing so. Crackerjack Jones and Wake Up in Malibu should be the horses dueling up front and if both of them can avoid trying to outrun the other they have real chances. Ostrolenka has been close in both of his SAR races and will be trying the 9 furlong distance for the second time. He could also be a pace factor. Good Luck Gus may be the value in the race. There should be plenty of speed for him to run at, and while his figures are not at the level of some others, he has good outs given the pace scenario.  Primary 3-4  Secondary (1, 2, 5)

Race 10.  With two of the AE’s getting into the race the choices changed. Rediscover has shown a lot of speed at the MSW level and should benefit from the shift to MCL. The horse to his inside, He’s One Wild Dude, had a troubled start last out, but if you put a line through that race the race before that he ran a competitive race. At 15-1 he interests me a lot. Twenty Four Seven moves over to the Danny Gargan barn and he has been excellent with new charges. Another with good outs at the odds. Astute Warrior has been running longer but looks strong for Eddie Kenneally who has had good success at the meet with limited starters.  Primary 10-11-1-4  Secondary ( 5, 7, 13)

Race 2.  Fairly competitive race. Sweetrayofsunshine looks fairly strong on paper. She was close in a 6F event on Aug 10 in the slop at SAR and makes a slight drop in price today. Irad looks like he opted for Sun and Moon, but Geroux should be a capable replacement. The rest of the horses look about the same to me. Miss Amalita was in that same Aug 10 race and considering she was taking a lot of backsplash ran a pretty good race. She should be decent value today.  Da Wildcat Girl took some time off after Belmont but she is an honest runner and has had success at SAR.  Primary 2-6-7  Secondary (1, 3, 4)

Race 3. A few horses could be winners here, but I’m giving Warranty the nod. She’s dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks and is cutting back in distance, something that shouldn’t hurt her chances. Her figures are not dominating, but Chad Brown as trainer gives her an edge. Smile Big is the other Chad Brown horse. She just missed at a lower level last out and while her figures are a little low for the group, I think she’s got a real chance.  French Dressing ran well at this level at SAR, and while 0 for 17 is usually a DQ, I like her in the verticals at 15-1 ML.  Primary 3-2-7   Secondary (1, 4)

Race 4.  Pretty straightforward race. T R Crew, Singleton and Roustabout stick out for me. 1-4-6

Race 5. Lots of prospects here. Verbouwen exits a G3 race where she lost her best chance when she steadied. Looks good in this spot. Grey Stark comes off a win in an OC $80K race and has leading trainer Chad Brown in her corner. Rachel Wall has the figures to be a factor here and came off a nice second at the longer route distance last out.  Primary 4-5-3  Secondary (1, 6, 7)

 Race 6.  Lots of horses entered but I’m not seeing a lot of contenders. Bareeqa was claimed last out by Danny Gargan who is having a good 2016. Perhaps the change in scenery puts her over the top. Love Blues is coming off a short vacation and has enough speed to get a good spot from the rail. Octacto switches barns and the consistency of her figures is a real positive. Primary 8-1-3  Secondary (5, 7)

Race 7. Another competitive affair. Hudson River Gal gets the nod off her strong second last out in her first with winners. Winning rider Castellano gets back aboard. Khaleesi Kat comes out of the same race, but given it was her first in nine months improvement is likely. Indygita is the third horse coming out of that race. She’s shown her competitiveness and can’t be discounted here. Primary 3-10-5  Secondary (2, 8)

Race 8.  Another race where a few of the horses have common preps. Know It All Anna ran well a month ago and cuts back a half furlong in distance. One concern – regular rider Castellano jumps over to the 3. So You Say is the second runner out of a common race with the top choice. It was his first race of the year and improvement is likely. Casual Cocktail beat the top choice last out and would be no surprise in the winner’s circle.  Primary 6-4-1  Secondary (2, 3, 5, 7)

Race 9.  The P G Johnson is one of the important preps leading up to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Make no mistake. These are good fillies and they will all be trying hard to win. Lady Joan has improved with each start and is adding distance today. That shouldn’t be a problem given her breeding. Right now looks like the value. Coasted has already won at the distance in impressive fashion. She’ll likely be the favorite and given her last start she will be deserving. Noble Ready goes for Clement and gets a switch to Irad. That combo is 25% at this meet. They all have similar figures, so expect a good race.  Primary 6-4-3  Secondary (2, 7)

Race 10.  Wide open race. If the two AEs Haul Anchor and Dab make it in they would be the choices. Otherwise, Dance Graze, Can You Diggit, and Jupiter Rising look like the most likely Primary 9-2-5 with 1A and 2B

Race 2.  Pontastic goes for new trainer RuRod. The horse ran well at CD in July and has been working steadily for his return. Tepid choice.  The Chad Brown entry is likely to go favorite. Musical Comedy looks to be the better of the two. Villa has had a lot of starts and seems more likely for the verticals.  6-1/1A-5

Race 3.  Catapult Jack lost his rider last out but prior to that he showed some talent when placed first time on the turf. Should be good odds at post time. Stony Brook has a lot of positives in this race. He faced a decent group of straight maidens at MTH. He probably lost any real chance because he was fractious at the gate, but Jason Servis has had some time to straighten him out.  Servis is 21% with his 2nd time starters and 40% at this meet when riding Irad. Colonel Andy starts for new trainer Thomas Morely. He has a couple of decent starts on the turf.  Primary 2-3-4  Secondary (1, 8, 10)

Race 4.  Lucky Lotto takes a pretty good drop today. His last race was disappointing, but prior to that he had been competitive with better. Perhaps a bit chancey, but may prove to be value. Cousin Stephen makes a huge drop in class off his 2016 debut which wasn’t that bad. If he improves he’s best in the race. Seventhfleethumor has potential in the verticals.  Primary 1-5-4  Secondary (2, 3, 6)

Race 5.  Lots of contenders in this race. I’m leaning toward Don’t Be So Salty who drops for Linda Rice. I’m a little leery about taking a horse that has run in G3 races and placing him at $25K but if he is right he is the most likely winner. Latigo Trail came out running in 2016 with a win and should be well recovered for this one. Likely front runner.  Primary 10-5-9  Secondary (1, 2, 7)

Race 6.  Another wide open race. Uncharted Course was caught flat footed on the slop last out but has a second on the SAR dirt. Other than the sloppy race he hadn’t really run a bad one for 10 months, and at hi best he’s much faster than anything else in here. Sidearm ships in from LS for new trainer Tom Amoss. Amoss has brought some live ones to the Spa with 33% in the money at the meet, and the horse has 2 wins in three starts on the SAR dirt. Comandante has the best last race figure and should be prompting the pace early.  Primary 6-4-3  Secondary (5)

Race 7.  Lots of contenders here and with the 14 getting into the race we can add one more contender. Circus Performer looks strong in this field. He adds blinkers and picks up Javier as his new rider. He had a troubled start last out but still managed to get into the race. The drop in price is definitely in his favor. Late Night Work has run well since arriving from England, finally breaking his maiden two back and running well in his first with winners. Figures say he is competitive here. Gunlock adds blinkers today and looks well positioned for the verticals.  Primary 10-6-3. Secondary  (2, 7, 9, 14)

Race 8.  Barrel of Dreams won last out with better horses and should be part of the early pace. Already has a win this year at SAR and Charlton Baker has been having a great meet. Table for Six broke slowly last out but was rushing at the end. In the prior race she also had trouble before managing to finish third. If Javier can get her out of the gate and keep her clear of problems she has a large chance. Weather Girl has been off a month and a half but should be in good condition for this run.  Primary 3-7-4  Secondary (6, 9, 10)

Race 9.   Not a particularly tricky race. The favorites, Keep Quiet, Made You Look, Ardmore Bay and My Bo Chop look best in this field. 7-2-4-3

Race 10. Wide open affair. I am using Honor Way, Late Night Kiss, Forres Lilly and Boa Sorte.  4-7-10-1