Last day of a profitable SAR meeting for me. The first two weeks of the meeting were slim, but starting the third week I went on a nice run of good priced winners, Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s, and some fat exactas. I’m thinking about how much I’ll be posting selections for Belmont. I’m behind on my new book, the working title of which is., Why do I Lose, and I need to start posting more blogs. So we’ll see what happens leading up to the Breeder’s Cup, but I’ll be active with picks at least part of the time through the BC.

Race 1.   Lot of races where the favorites look good and the price horses don’t. This is one of them. Not a great amount of analysis. Instant Replay, Skill Not Luck, and Don’t Point.  Primary 4-3-2

Race 2. Kangaroo Style is a multi-start maiden that has been given some time off by Michelle Nevin. He’s been working steadily for a month and at his best certainly has competitive numbers. Dancer’s Edge ran a good one in an off the turf affair three weeks ago and looks better meant for the turf. Worth a look at the odds. There Goes Ben runs for RuRod, and while he’s a 10-start maiden, he’s got some positives, including RuRod’s 19% number off the layoffs. Primary 4-9-6  Secondary (1, 2, 3, 5)

Race 3. Once again the favorites look best to me, but there are a few extra contenders. Request, Ectot, and Street Fashion.  Primary 1-6-3  Secondary  (4, 5)

Race 4.  This race is wide open but I went with the Pletcher/Velasquez runner Commandeering. Lenstar has a race where he showed speed and no reason to expect he’ll try a new strategy today. Moves Like Ali sold for 25 times his stud fee and Jeremiah Englehart is not too bad with first time starters. Primary 1-9-6

Race 5.  Another race where the favorites seem to look best. Primary 1-4-7  Secondary (4)

Race 6.  Another race where I have no real insight into the longer priced horses. Primary 2-6-3

Race 7.  Seems like the races are either obvious or have a ton of contenders. Par goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He’s coming off a good second at a slightly longer distance and has enough speed to stay near the pace and close late. Know Your Customer has to overcome the far outside post but he showed good speed in winning his last start and has first rate connections. Liberal Spin has competitive figures if you put a line through his last. Primary 8-12-4  Secondary (1, 2,4)

Race 8.  Not a lot of prior form to go on. I’m gong with Bid List who gets top rider Jose Ortiz and comes in with a steady series of drills for Asmussen who is 19% with 1st timers. Mint Condition has some nice works in his pattern, including her last that indicates he should be competitive early. Krazy Kathy goes for RuRod and Irad gets up. Could be up against it out of the one, but at 12-1 she has my interest.  Primary 3-4-1  Secondary (5, 8, 9)

Race 9.  Both halves of the 1 entry, Ocean Knight and Iron Fist, look live in here, so they get the nod. All Star Red had a little trouble getting into the last race but his figure off the Vanderbilt is still one of the better in the race. Seems to have a great liking for the distance. J S Bach has been gelded since his last and I always give a little extra credit for that equipment change. His numbers from the OC$80K races put him in the mix.  Primary 1-10-4  Secondary (8, 9)

Race 10.  Gotachancetodance has done well both at the distance and at Saratoga, although he ran longer distances at the end of last year. She’ll have to be at her best considering she’s making her debut against some decent runners. Mexican Gold ships over from France where he was in the stable of top trainer Andre Fabre. He doesn’t lose anything in the switch to Chad Brown who is 24% with Euro shippers. Kitzy’s Rocket is 2 of 3 at SAR and her top number is competitive with any of these.  Primary 6-3-9  Secondary (1, 2, 7)

Race 11.  The favorites look strong here, but there are some horses that could surprise. Off the Tracks ran big in the Test to Paola Queen and should be the one to catch here. Appealing Maggie is a good young sprinter and moves up to graded company today. I like improving three year olds and at 6-1 she looks like she might be the value. Coppa has been lightly raced but her figures suggest she is in the mix today.  Primary 7-5-6  Secondary (1, 9, 10)

Race 12.  Not a lot of info in the PPs of the horses here, so you may have to go deep in the horizontals. My Fair Lilly, Salty Mo, and Fired Up Sensation are the ones I’ve settled on. Primary 1-2-5  Secondary (4, 6, 10)