Yesterday didn’t start out so good, but in the 5th race one of my prime contenders, Zero Zee, was 19-1 on the board which merited a win bet. The $40 mutuel kicked off a good stretch. In the late P4, I wound up moving #5 Adulator to the primary contender category when he took some action and I noticed that Johnny V opted to ride this horse rather than one of the two Pletcher horses that were in the race. With the favorites running out and that horse paying a decent $10, it was a good start to the P4. In the 8th the heavy favorite Morandi ran out but my other prime contender, #4 Bigger Picture came in at $8.70. With that favorite out the P4 was primed for a nice payoff. In the 9th the top two picks Stallwalking Dude and Chief Lion triggered a $104 exacta, a $538 P3  and a lot of promise for the P4 pay. When 7/2 shot Know Your Customer won the last, the final P3 paid $466 and the P4 paid $2,590. If you followed me, you could have had a big day at the Spa. Even betting minimums you would have caught $1,150 worth of P3/P4 bets. I actually want to give a shout out to those who thanked me for giving them the opportunity to grab a quick grand in the last four races yesterday. Makes the extra work feel better.

Today may or may not turn out well from a weather standpoint. The forecast promised heavy rain during the day, but we’ll see what we can come up with.

In Race 1 even though Frosti Agosti is only 5/2 on the ML, the trainer change from Ray Handel to Chris Englehart is a huge positive, and the jockey change to Manny Franco from Emmanuel Esquivel is also in his favor. Call Me Stoney and Baby Bear’s Soup will probably garner most of the action, and they certainly look competitive, but I like the angle on the #2.

Race 2 is a mile and a 16th on the turf, with an overflow field. Ticonderoga goes first time for Chad Brown and that is almost a must use. Kiss the Toad tries the turf for the first time after sprinting on the main at BEL, and trainer Thomas Morley has brought his horses to SAR in condition. Formula One was a $1.7million purchase  by Lanes End Racing and trainer Shug McGaughey, although for some reason he’s only listed at 6-1 on the program. I like the workout pattern, and if this horse lives up to the potential they saw, you have to put him in. Harlan’s Hunch has a sprint on the turf where he just missed. Harlan’s Holiday horses have been running well as two year olds on the turf and given the experience and a good race I would think he has to be part of the horizontals.

Race 3 is another two year old maiden race, and I’m inclined to stay with the obvious horses. Everybodylovesrudy goes for RuRod, who has been good with young horses. He looked a little disinterested early, but in the stretch rushed furiously to almost nip the winner. Leviathan is the Pletcher/Velasquez runner and he is always dangerous in baby sprints at the Spa. If he takes a lot of action you can be sure he’s in to run.  Pretty Boy Flash has two starts for Steve Asmussen and looks to stretch out a bit. The other horse coming out of the One Liner race is Lookin At Blessing. He didn’t show much speed last time but really looks like he’ll prefer the longer distance. He’ll certainly be the long odds in the group.

In Race 4 there are a lot of prospects, although none of them really stick out. McIlroy has been close in his last two, but at 4-1 hardly creates excitement. Sportscaster is making a big drop in price and is coming off a good run at GP in March. Last race was the first of 2016 and came off a four month layoff, so perhaps he’ll be ready to roll today. Midnight Notes is always competitive, but has a miserable win record the last two years. Off his June 30 race he is a contender here. Sinatra is another that looks good in here, or at least as good as anything else. Finally, Dendrite has a win at SAR last year. The 3 for 30 lifetime win record is nothing special, but you’ll get huge odds.

Race 5 is another 2YO crapshoot, with the usual Pletcher/Velasquez runner.

Race 6 brings together a lot of horses with similar talent. Captain Gaughen, Coalport, Adirondack Dancer, Final Chapter and Changewilldoyagood all merit consideration. I’m especially looking at With Exultation. He ran a big race at SAR three weeks ago, and he’s been with graded horses before that. I think he’s in a good spot to win here.

No real insight in Race 7. Fifth and Madison looks strong for Pletcher/Velasquez. I think the primary threat comes from Steve Asmussen’s Inheritance, a $1.9million purchase that looked like a monster breaking her maiden at BEL. I like the way Asmussen’s brought her up to the race. Malibu Stacy can be given a lot of credit for her run in the Victory Ride right after breaking her maiden. I like the SAR works in prep for this.

My late P4 numbers:

Race 8.  8 primary , 4, 5, 9, 10 secondary

Race 9.  5,6 primary, 2, 3 secondary

Race 10.  The Fourstardave. I have to tell this story because it involves one of the runners in this race, Blacktype. A couple of weeks ago I was at the Haskell with my friend trainer Doug O’Neill to watch Nyquist run. There was a pretty good sized group gathered in one of the boxes to root the horse on, and when the Oceanport came up I mentioned to Tom Knust, Mario Guttierez’s agent how I could never seem to get on the right side of Blacktype, a horse I actually like. If I’m on him to win, he’s out of the money, and if I pass on him he’s a winner. So I was determined to get on the right side of him today. The horse in my way of betting Blacktype was Kharafa, a really good NY bred who was 9-1 on the board, vs. Blacktype’s 5/2. So I wound up betting Kharafa heavy to win, but used Blacktype and Kharafa in a pretty good size exacta box since I didn’t have other contenders. In the stretch Kharafa has the lead with Blacktype bearing down. Kharafa looks like he’s got the strength to hold him off, and for no good reason I thought I was in a good spot and said, hang on two. I might as well as said, slow down two, because at that exact moment  Blacktype inched by. Now the exacta was $47, so it wasn’t a loss by any stretch, but once again, I found myself on the wrong end of Blacktype – sort of. In any case, the numbers in the Fourstardave are 4, 5, 6 primary, 3,7, 9, 10 secondary.

Race 11  6 primary, 1, 2, 4, 9 secondary.