Race 1. 6-5-3
Make Your Point just won at the NW3 level and the slight price drop should leave him at an equivalent class. Figures put her on top. Mastic goes first of the claim for Michelle Nevin and she is a solid 22%. Should improve with the cutback in distance. Ferzetti has been knocking at this level a while. She seems to like the AQU main and her last race number puts her in the mix.
Race 2. 2-8-9
Indygo Tigress should be the front runner here. She is bred average for the turf, so we’ll see if she takes to it. Johnny V gets aboard and that is a positive. Antebellum drops out of MSW and is one of the few in here with a solid turf race. Eqho is well bred for the turf and goes first time for Robert Ribaudo. I like that Jose Ortiz takes the mount.
Race 3. 2-6-1
Bust Another comes out of OC$80K races. He’s been much improved since Michael Pino took over training duties. I think he moves up successfully today. Dr. Shane has been competitive with statebred stakes horses for a while and has the numbers to be a major factor here. Sudden Surprise flopped in his effort with open stakes company, but he’s back with statebreds today. His record there is outstanding.
Race 4. 2-6-4
Break Away has had trouble finding the winner’s circle but Contessa is dropping the horse to its lowest level. Last race was a decent run and she has competitive turf numbers. Gimme Jimmy is another that has trouble crossing the wire first, but she is competitive, rarely finishing too far behind. On a field where there are a lot of weak NW2 horses, she may finally break through. Elementsofharmony should be the speed of the field and has three turf figures that would easily win the race. The odds don’t look like value, but she can’t be ignored.
Race 5. 8-2-3-9
Spring On Curlin had a troubled start but ran evenly throughout. He was bet last time and with a better start could be way better than his 10-1 ML odds. Onlytheshadowknows has shown good speed in his two starts and takes the blinkers off today. Competitive numbers. Travis County adds Lasix and McLaughlin is 24% with second time starters. Gorgeous Charli had a troubled start last out, rushed up with the leaders and faded. A clean start may mean a better trip.
Race 6. 2-3-4
Cliffs of Dover has a number of figures that would win in this field. Deserved favorite. Brimstone has only been on the turf once but he earned a good figure and lately has run some good races. Could be good value by post time. Coco is Loco won his turf debut, flopped on the inner, but is back on the grass today. Winning jockey Irad is back on board.
Race 7. 6-7-8
This race is super competitive, and you could make a case for almost any horse. Draxhall Woods comes out of the Peeping Tom where he race a close third. Won at this level two back and seems to enjoy winning. Hector’s Pride looks like the speed of the speed and is dropping out of the Kelly Kip. Seems to be in top shape. Monty Haul was claimed by David Cannizzo last out by had recently beaten $40K. Competitive off his best race.
Race 8. 5-4-6
Time and Motion is the clear fastest in the field. Just won her maiden in her 2016 debut but ran commendably in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Ready to break through. Enjoy Yourself comes out of the Florida Oaks and has competitive numbers. Great value if she goes off near her 8-1 ML. Pricedtoperfection just beat a Grade 3 field and has the always dangerous Chad Brown in her corner. Certainly would be no surprise.
Race 9. 13-7-8
Very difficult race, mostly because no horse stands out. Bustin Aces has the best speed and her figures are competive. Show Giant has been running decently as this level, but will need to improve to get to the wire first. Better than her 12-1 odds. Double Mane is another that has been close in her races with no luck getting to the wire first. Still, in this field, it may be her day.