Race 1.     6-5-4

First race is a statebred maiden claimer and the choices are limited. In Condition looks like he has by far the best speed and his 2YO figure is almost as good as others 3YO figures. Like the angle. Excluded ran pretty well in his 2016 debut and with any improvement is a prime contender. Fleeting Gold has been working on breaking his maiden this year and may pick up some pieces.

Race 2.     2-5-1

Longfor the City had trouble at the start in his last race so throw that one out. Ru Rod moved him up after claiming him for $25K and drops him to his lowest level today. Should be winging on the front and may be hard to catch. Pass the Dice is the other Ru Rod entrant and he comes off a narrow win at this level. On his best day he’s right in the mix. Luckbox Sam jumps up to $20K. He’s been in good shape but faces a stern test today.

Race 3.     4-10-2-12

This is a competitive affair, and like most of the early turf races there are a number of horses with no turf form. I’ll go with Moegan Avenue who has three nice races in a row and has a good mix of speed and stay. He’s been dropping in price looking for the win and may be in the right spot today. Datamining drops from MSW to this claiming spot. I like horses coming off the FG turf. You can toss his last race, and his turf figures are right there. Liam’s Prince is making his 10th start looking for a win. Has the talent, but needs to show he has the heart. Im a Prankster has shown speed in his races, and may be able to hold it off the price drop.

Race 4.     7-6-3

In Spite of Mama tries NW1X for the first time. She blew away a statebred field of optional claimers on the inner and went in a state-bred stakes where she showed well to the stretch. May be the value in the race. Literata just won a non-conditioned state-bred allowance and rarely throws in a bad race. Flick of an Eye has the best last race figure but has been trying to crack the winner’s circle at this level for a while.

Race 5.     12-2-7-11

Startup Nation was running mainly in graded races the last two years and has the dominant turf figures. I’d be a lot more concerned if Chad Brown wasn’t the trainer. If he’s in condition he looks like the best horse. Glowing Ember has been running well at this level, although he does seem to be a little fainthearted when the running really starts. Still, he’s got speed and he is 12-1 on the ML. Mark My Style finished second at this level last out and has competitive numbers. Front finished just behind Mark My Style two back and could turn the tables today.

Race 6.     9-4-1

This is a pretty bad field, but somebody still has to win. Ideal Quality was claimed at this price, jumped up to $25K, and is back at this level today. If he runs to his best figure, he’s as good as any in here. Touchdown looks like the speed and puts the blinkers on today. Last race is a toss, but the one before was good enough to win this one. Andrew’s Got Zip has had trouble finding the winner’s circle but has figures that could put him in the verticals.

Race 7.     2-6-7

Highland Sky is the interesting horse here. He made a big close in the BC Juvenile Turf. He came back in a restricted stakes to finish second and seems primed for a good effort today. Highly Prized is better than his 12-1 odds. He broke his maiden at first asking when shipped to the states, and has run two decent races since. His figures suggest he’s not that far out of it. Unbridled Daddy easily won his 2016 debut and ran well in a Grade 2 at the Spa. He looks primed to run well today.

Race 8.     8-3-2

Behrnik’s Bank destroyed two fields at Penn National and nearly won a version of the NYS Stallion Series in December. Workout pattern is ordinary, but she did win he debut by open lengths. Frosty Margarita was the one who beat the top choice last year.  She’s never finished worse than second in her life and you bet against her at your own peril. Libreta has some decent races and may make the vertical.

Race 9.     8-4-10

The closer is a total mess of a race. Baldonnel gets the nod for a couple of reasons. He’s been gelded since his last and I like his late October Belmont race. He’s making a big drop from his last two races at AQU and moves to the Contessa barn for this start. At the odds may be value. Momma’s Mark hasn’t won since the middle of last year, but does have some recent turf form. Prospects here. Geo Niko broke his maiden two back and should be in a good striking position turning for home. His win gave him a good figure and if he duplicates it he’s a contender.