Selections

Aqueduct January 2

The races have been difficult to bet this week. Fairly full fields, but a lot of races where the favorite looked strong and ran up the track. Rudy Rodriguez has been ice cold, David Jacobson not much better. Eddie Kenneally has brought some horses to NY that have been live. Richard Schosberg has been doing well. Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown have left a few horses in NY with decent success (and no odds). For the time being until RuRod and Jacobson find their form I’ll discount them.

Race 1

  • 1 Glenbrook – most of the speed in the race. Dropped to $25K last out on the inner and ran a good third, although she lost a few lengths in the stretch. If she isn’t heartless she should be hard to catch.
  • 4 Home to Carrowkeel – started her career on the turf despite not being well bred for the turf. Last race she pressed the early pace as the favorite in the mud but backed up after a half. Nevin has done well on the inner this winter. I’ll bank that she’ll like a fast track more than the mud.
  • 6 Agate – Second off a long layoff for Donk who hasn’t quite gotten into stride this winter. She’s taking another drop but ran some decent figures last spring. Should be a decent value and worth watching.

Race 2

  • 7 Thug Daddy – ran his best race when dropped to this level and moved to the inner, and adds blinkers today. In a race where too many of the horses are headed for professional maiden status he still has some up side. The suddenly invincible Jose Ortiz rides.
  • 1 Cee No More – Takes a 50% drop in price today. Not well bred for the turf and his starts on that surface show it. Last time he was on the good dirt at this distance he ran a strong second. Better prospects than his last three showed.
  • 4 Robert Noble – Claimed by Karl Grusmark two back. Jumped up to $25K last out but dropped to the claiming price he was taken at today. Should be contesting the early pace and his last gives him some experience on the inner.

Race 3

  • 3 Majestic Affair – maiden winner at Canterbury shipped to SAR for the Saratoga Special where he showed a little bit of early interest but faded to last. He returned in an allowance at Parx and won after a strong drive. That was a positive enough effort that Chad Brown placed him in the Lewis at Laurel where he finished a strong second. He looks fast enough and versatile enough to handle this field. He’s getting better with each race.
  • 2 Ship Disturber – wired a field at AQU a month ago in easy fashion. Has every reason to improve today.

Race 4

  • 4 Lil’ Zilla – Just broke her maiden last out for $25K in a good time. Should be close to the front. Change to the inner seemed to be the tonic she needed.
  • 5 Bella Fachi – In and out filly puts blinkers on today and should be coming in the stretch. At the right level.
  • 7 Flirtatious Spring – most of her races have been on the turf. The 1 for 25 record does not inspire confidence but she has only 3 starts on a fast track. If she likes the surface may forget to hang in the stretch.

Race 5

  •  3 Taylor Jagger – last out was his first at a route in six months and it came on a muddy track on the inner. I’m looking for improvement with that race on his resume and Irad staying for the ride.
  • 1 Star of the Forest – has been racing out west – Finger Lakes, Fort Erie and Woodbine. Didn’t have a bad 2014 and has the figures to compete.
  • 2 Rock Show – pressed and ran second at this distance (less 70 yards)  on the inner last out in the mud.  Low profile traner not inspiring but is placed right today.

Race 6      10-4-7

Really tough 2 year old affair. I’m going with Call Me Stoney as the top pick based on his experience and his first race on the inner. First timer True Bet gets the second slot based on the solid first-out percentage of the sire and the trainer, and a workout pattern I like. I’ll put Deficit Hawk in third slot. Violette has been uncanny with first timers and this one has been working well. The other horses with prospects are One Sided. He is trained by Pletcher and has been working steadily at the Palm Beach Downs training facility. Andrew’s Got Zip is the other with experience and Schosberg has had his horses ready to run lately. Pioneeringforgold is up against it from the outside post but Levine is good with firsters and the workout pattern is positive.

Race 7

  • 9 My Place – claimed by Michelle Nevin last out and she brings her back at the same level. Nevin is 28% with first off the claim. Drops back a furlong for this start.
  • 6 Pura Vida Zen – leapt up at the start and that is fatal at five and a half. Another Schosberg trainee. 12 for 38 lifetime record says she is a hard trying mare.
  • 1a My Tee Time – Jacobson claim looking for two in a row. Jumps this one up and that may be a good sign.

Race 8

  • 8 True Romance – Impressive maiden winner at BEL and only missed by 3/4 in the Safely Kept. Franco gets the ride for Timothy Hills.
  • 6 Blithely – Faltered at a mile last out but before that had won two in a row at 6 furlongsTalented horse with competitive figures.
  • 5 Killaday – coming in off a long layoff for Shettino. Has two starts on the inner both fast. Shettino is 1 for 3 for off the long layoff.

Race 9

  • 3 March Too – Drops way down in class for Kenneally and has the best figures. Should be in a good pressing spot and the unstoppable Jose Ortiz gets the ride.
  • 4 Island Therapy – 12-1 ML shot had been turfing most of the year and ran into a muddy track first time on the dirt in a while. With improvement he is competitive in this group.
  • 8 Ke In Motion – the best speed in the race and competitive figures. Takes the blinkers off today. Esler is 2 of 6 with that move. Is one of one lifetime on the inner.