Selections

Aqueduct January 1, 2015

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone. Hope you all have a healthy and prosperous 2015.

Tough card to start the year. Not a lot I am really excited about, but we’ll see how some of the longshot selections pan out.

Race 1

  • 5 Gabby’s Brown – Drops from $50K and puts the shades on for RuRod. Has already had a race on the inner where she showed the way for half a mile. The cut back in distance and switch to Irad helps her cause.
  • 1 Your Turn – ran decently in the mud on the inner when finishing third behind Coral Beach. Mott is well known for his horses needing a race or two, and she definitely improved last out. One more jump puts her in the mix.
  • 2 Coral Beach – Pletcher was looking to get rid of her last out but found no takers so he’s making another try. She ran well while racing wide and just couldn’t get by Rosa Carina. Looks like any of the three could be the winner.

Race 2

  • 7 Breach of Duty – Broke her maiden at a mile and came back at Parx in a NW1X where she never was a threat. Back in the claiming ranks and will be competitive if she runs back to her maiden figure. Having Chad Brown and Irad is a plus considering the combo is 26% and a positive ROI overall.
  • 5 Noon Sermon – dominated a maiden $40K field in the mud but that was two months ago. Has a good set of works in December for the return.
  • 3 Slam Chowder – another that ran away from a maiden $40K field but at 5 1/2 furlongs on the inner. Eddie Kenneally has been live this meet.

Race 3       The Affectionately

This looks like a competiive race. The 1 entry doesn’t look like either has a decent probability of winning. While America didn’t make my top three, she did just win one the inner and on a muddy main track at AQU. She’s in good condition and does have Bill Mott on her side so she wouldn’t be a surprise. Moment in Dixie is the other logical contender. She is listed at 7/2 on the ML and although she doesn’t have a win this year, she has been running in graded events. If any of the selections falters she could be in the mix.

  • 7 Belle Gallantey – made a try in the BC Distaff and only beat two, but before that won the Beldame and the Delaware ‘Cap. Looks to be the class of the field and is far and away the biggest earner. Decent record on the inner and half her lifetime wins came in 2014. Is one of the speedier horses in the race, and should be in a good spot turning for home.
  • 3 Shayjolie – finished second in the Comely. Should prefer the cutback in distance. Except for a race on the turf, she’s run consistent figures all year. Another that should be up near the front and running in the stretch.
  • 2/2b Penwith/Divided Attention – duo obtained favoritism in the Comely but finished a disappointing 4th/6th. Penwith should be up toward the front while Divided Attention should be pressing. Both of them have figures in their PP’s that would win this race and are certainly talented enough to win it.

Race 4

With the scratch of Bad to the Roan I’ll move Risk the Moon up to the second choice. Leatherhead Lurie managed a second last out and Little T. Louie was slightly behind after pushing the pace. Neither one has been particularly inspiring, but in this field they are not without chances.

  • 3 Awesome Lute – dropped from a MSW to this level last out and ran a good second. That race gives him the best last race figure. A couple of December workouts should have him ready to roll.
  • 9 Bad to the Road – finished behind the 1 in his last race but was right on the leader the whole way. The negative is that he is on the far outside and will have to work hard to get to the front. Possibly working on getting his professional maiden degree.
  • 5 Risk the Moon – only his third start, but showed a bit more interest than in his first start. This is not a high grade field, and at 30-1 might be worth a flyer.

Race 5

  • 3 Ginny’s Grey – claimed by Danny Gargan at SAR in August. He thought about trying her on the turf but was washed off once at BEL and once at AQU. She won the BEL race, and ran a decent third to Agawa, a horse entered in today’s Affectionately, at AQU. She has a nice pressing style and a competitive figure. One decent maintenance work 10 days ago.
  • 7 Wavell Avenue – has a good turn of speed and the combination of Chad Brown and Irad on his side. Won a sprint at AQU and moves to the route. He’s already wired a field at a mile and a 16th so today’s distance should be no problem. Heavy favorite on the ML. Has a lot of upside.
  • 5 Bounty Pink – five wins in ten starts including the last four in a row. Steps up a bit in price, but that is a good sign. Has a win and a third on the inner and has been improving each time. Gotta like horses that try hard each time.

Race 6

  • 7 First Sensation – Couldn’t handle a $16K starter allowance last out but the time before that beat a $16K NW3 claiming group. Pablo Fragoso is back to ride at AQU. Has competitive figures.
  • 9 Mama Zee – RuRod runner has a good turn of speed but has faltered as the favorite in her last two at this level and distance. Still, her figures are competitive and she has a lot of back class. Irad takes the mount back and the Rodriguez/Ortiz combo hits at 24%
  • 1 Concealed – Luis Miranda is not a first rate trainer, but half of his wins come from this horse. Lots of natural speed but will have to contend with Blue Ballerina to her outside. Still, has wired against much better than these and has 4 of 6 in the money on the inner.

Race 7

With the scratch of The Spotted Wonder that moves Sean and Matt into the top three. He wired a field as recently as September and hasn’t run badly in his subsequent two $50K starter allowances.

  •  6 Peaceful Talk – had been racing on the turf most of the year but moved to the AQU main and and ran well into the deep stretch . Given that was his first start on the main six months, improvement is possible. Has experience on the innerand has gotten beter since then.
  • 2 The Spotted Wonder – ran well on two sloppy tracks then just missed on a fast track last out. Has the best last race figure and a couple of December maintenance works. Franco stays for the ride and while Leo O’Brien isn’t the trainer he once was, he is still a good horseman.
  • 3 Von Frassen – Jacobson looks to repeat as New York’s leading trainer in 2015 and is hoping it starts here. Ran third on the inner last out. Should improve this time out.

Race 8

With the scratches of the 3, 5, and 10 the race takes on a different flavor. Spinit to Winit is only 2 for 17 but has 7 seconds so she moves into contention

  • 4 La Bella Valeria – hasn’t finished worse than second this year including a win at 5 1/2 on the inner last time. Figures top the field and should be one of the horses winging on the lead.
  • 7 Shea Darby – is the interesting horse. Won two races on the inner at AQU last year (2014) and came out in the mud a month ago, pressing the pace for a half and fading to fourth in the stretch. Given the scratches she won’t go off at 12-1, but she should be decent odds.
  • 3 Elmra – Is well suited for the 6 furlong distance with a win and a place lifetime. Faltered last out in the mud but has shown stretch courage in the past on a fast track, including just missing on the inner in her debut race. Last race figure very competitive.

Race 9

  • 7 Jules N Rome – best dirt figure off her debut race, and looked good running second on a sloppy track last out. Two nice December workouts in prep for this.
  • 5 Broken Border – Broke poorly last race but made a steady close to finish second. Switches from the turf to dirt today, given the breeding she should adapt well.
  • 2 Stolen Victory – has been close in her last three. Lost two back to Endonahighnote, but improved in her race after that one so she’ll get the final slot today.