A pretty good mid-week card. Fairly full fields and competitive races. Let’s get handicapping.

Race 1

• 7 Ave’s Halo – Claimed by David Cannizo after a win at this level, jumped him up and brings him back to the level at which he was claimed. Pressing style and competitive figures.
• 1 Pura Vida Zen – Speedy sort should be the front runner. First time on turf but has had success on synth. Weak in the stretch on the dirt but expect her to carry speed farther on the turf.
• 9 C C’s Pride – better on the turf. Drops into winning claiming level.

Race 2 

• 8 Flag On the Play – drops into MCL and gets Lasix after being off for 10 months. McLaughlin high percentage with this move.
• 5 Inca Saint – blinkers on for Chad Brown trainee. Originally had the horse, lost him and claimed him back at SAR. should be live.
• 7 Nicholoson – Just missed at SAR. Steady runner had a couple of fast workouts in preparation for this. 
• 1 Inception – long layoff after running a big race at Woodbine against well regarded Kaigun. Will be long odds but if he returns healthy could outclass the field.

Race 3 

• 1 Sweet Sweet Afleet – broke out at the start, solidly bumping with rivals, bolted to the center of the track coming out of the turn, reacted badly to the whip and finally got going to finish a clear second. If she runs clear today, she is the likely winner.
• 2 Kleptocrat – puts the blinkers on  and jumps up to MSW again. Perhaps he is strong enough to finish in this field.
• 7 All Luv Me – takes blinkers off and makes his 9th start at this level. More likely to be in the money than win.
• 6 Moonlight Fantasy – horrible looking race first time out, but was off slow and raced very greenly. Mike Hushion is good off the layof and has been very good so far at BEL. Could be any kind and is a must use

Race 4

• 2 Galaroyale – has had trouble getting out of the gate but has still run competitively. With a clean break she should graduate.
• 9 Miss Lech – in the money three of four starts, 6F should be a perfect distance. Chad Brown trainee has a good second at BEL and has worked steadily up to this race.
• 3 Harp N Halo – exits same SAR turf race as Galaroyale and D’Kennesaw Cat. With less trouble she is highly competitive here.
• 1 Korite – took the worst of the bumper car start and is another that can be competitive with a clean trip.
• 4 D; Kennesaw Cat is not a likely winner, but should be used in tri’s and supers

Race 5

• 3 Takeoff Your Hat – Steady sort always seems to make a race of it. Right there off her best effort.
• 4 Willow U – just missed last out at SAR. Has looked more focused in her last five with the addition of blinkers.
• 9 Take It Inside – should be the controlling speed and that makes her dangerous. High percentage trainer Michael Gorham looks to surpise the NY crowd again at long odds.
• 5 Lady Kressa – Donk trainee has been with better and has been close in all her races. Switch to Ortiz may help.

Race 6

• 1/1A Back Forty/Glickman – Glickman has already won at the meet and has been consistent at BEL. Back Forty the weaker of the two, but still has a high win percentage and Jacobson behind him.
• 7 Street Shark – front running sort has won half his starts. Claimed last out by Englehart  and looms the danger.
• 4 Regulus – Contessa runner looked like a tired horse last out but has been competitive most of the year. We’ll see if the three week rest recharges him.
• 9 The Big Deluxe – Toscano has the four year old colt rolling on the lead. But he looks a bit heartless in the stretch. Could hang on for a piece.

Race 7

• 2 Bio Pro – has been 7F once with a second place finish on the BEL turf. In good form off of a 2 length beat in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch where he was steadied in the stretch.
• 3 Golden Rifle – in his last six has four wins and two seconds. Chad Brown has him well spotted here.
• 1A Strong Impact – slightly stronger than his entry mate. One of the two will be scratched early. Not quite the horse he was earlier in his career but still a quality runner.

Race 8

• 7 Zindaya – broke her maiden at SAR after three good second place finishes. Hasn’t gone 6F yet but looks to be getting stronger. Lezcano stays.
• 8 Ballerina Belle – a horse with some serious seconditis, but still can’t be counted out. Only win came on the BEL turf.
• 9 Scatcapade – just missed at 5 1/2 last time out. Pressing style so needs to establish position and stay clear of trouble.
• 2 Tasmona – Chad Brown trainee adds blinkers for this trip. Appears to be a little short at longer distances, but 6F should be perfect. 

Race 9

• 7 Cody’s Notes – Looked like a winner last out but hung in the stretch. Seems to ready for a big one.
• 12 Chasin Chama – Drops back to MCL after trying straight maidens last time. Competitive with these.
• 11 Hushhushmushmush – another one coming back to MCL where he looked good. Brown/Ortiz combo hitting at 28%
• 6 Fictional Character – did not like the slop last out and has had two difficult breaks in his last two. Lezcano has to put the horse in a good spot so he can do what he seems to prefer – run on in the stretch. At 10-1 an interesting longshot.
• 10 Wake Up and Go – has been knocking around with this type for a while. Most likely in the money rather than win.
• 13 Lotza Heat – Dangerous if he draws in

The Belmont cards have been tough all week. Today is no exception.

Race 1

• 3 Path to Power – has one start where he showed a little early interest. Puts the blinkers on today. Is he a heartless front runner or just a horse that needs some focus? If he goes off at odds it is worth paying to find out. DRF says Lisa Lewis 0 for 5 with blinkers on but she won with Saratoga Heater in August with that move.
• 2 It’s Easy – That’s not true whether you are running or playing, but I’ve been liking the Abby Adsit angle lately and given the horse has had a good rest and a nice series of comeback works, she deserves a chance.
• 8 Bella Fachi – has had two golden chances to win and has flopped both times. Perhaps third time is a charm.

Race 2

• 1 Saratoga Heater – won his last on a sloppy track in a respectable if not flashy time.  More closer than presser. Rosario back from PA to ride.
• 2 Banana Thief – broke his maiden in his third try at 5 1/2 on the turf in SAR. Probably better bred for the turf, and this is his first fast dirt try. Minor awards at best.
• 3 Market Conduct – Chad Brown trainee popped first out at SAR in a middling time. We’ll see today just how much talent he has.
• 4 Tizquick – will be the choice. Got beat first out by the well-regarded Upstart, who simply overpowered the field in the stretch. Tizquick still ran with great courage and I like his chances today despite the fact this will be his maiden win.
• 5 Bullheaded Boy – ran third to the previously mentioned Upstart. He obviously has chances as his 9-5 ML indicates, but you certainly can’t say he is lengths better than the field – yet.
• 6 Chloe’s Wonderboy – $25K maiden claiming winner jumps up today. High percentage mid-Atlantic trainer ships in. Can’t totally dismiss, but I think other starters are more likely.

Race 3

• 3 Make a Fortune – hard knocking 6 year old has already won for Chris Englehart off the claim. Didn’t care for the PID surface last out and is 3 of 4 on the BEL dirt.
• 1/1A Be Bullish/Glickman – Be Bullish’s better days are probably behind him but he could still be dangerous. Glickman wired a field first off the claim for Jacobson and looks to repeat. I think this is a positive drop – the horse obviously has had some physical issues in his career having been off close to two years before his first 2014 start – and I don’t think Jacobson cares if he loses him for a few dollars less than he paid.
• 8 Deadicated Deal – claimed off a win at $20K by Imperio. Another that can drop for a win.

Race 4

• 1 Temper Mint Patty – Competitive figure and wouldn’t surprise, but I’m looking elsewhere.
• 2 Hard to Stay Notgo – Destroyed a field first out and finished second to Myfourchix in the Seeking the Ante. Looks second best again.
• 3 Evrybdymstgetstonz – SCR
• 4 Freudie Anne – Ran a strong turf race opening week and wouldn’t be any surprise here on the dirt.
• 5 Majestic Blook – SCR
• 6 My Super Nova – a neck behind Temper Mint Patty despite being 2 lengths clear in the stretch. Perhaps she holds her speed better this time, and young horses do improve from race to race. Would have to be odds for me to get excited.
• 7 Myfourchix – Winner of the Seeking the Ante. Looks like the longer they go, the better she’ll like it. Looks best to me.

Race 5

This race is now off the turf and MTO 13 Better Man is in. He doesn’t look overpowering in here, but you always have to give the MTO’s a second look. The selections in this race were for the turf, but I’m not going to adjust them. By this race you’ll know how the track is playing and you can bet accordingly.

• 7 Giant Slayer – Clement trainee dropped to MCL last out and made an improved run. In the right spot today.
• 12 Morse – has shown speed and not a lot of heart at longer distances. Sprinting could be his thing.
• 4 Bolt From the Blue – ran right behind Giant Slayer and may do it again.
• 11 Jimmy Soul – developing seconditis but can still grab a piece.

Race 6

• 5 G Note – drops in distance off a 3 month layoff. We’ll give her the nod fresh.
• 1 Aesthetique – has looked competitive with this sort. I think 7F could be the right distance.
• 8 Nonnie Connie – lots of starts, two wins and reasonable chances to finish in the money.
• 9 All Mine Tonight – just missed last out. Been in these conditions a while.

Race 7

• 6 Back Stop – Chad Brown and first timer. Enough about that.
• 8 Arctic Ocean – tried hard after going wide on a muddy track. Jumps up to straight maidens and is not without chances.
• 3 Co – steadied early in her last and lost all chance. Gets another chance today
• 4 Jacaranda – working well for Mike Husion
• 9 Tizthefastlaine – Albertrani lately has been putting live firsters on the track. Can use in the exotics.

Race 8

• 6 Street Game – three lengths behind the well regarded King Kressa in the West Point at a very big number. I think Nevin has kept the horse sharp.
• 1 Sanctify – has not run a bad race this year and no reason why he might start now.
• 8 Carson Bandit – has some speed and will use  it. Longshot that could get buried or skip away
• 4 Majestic Raffy – Softer ground shouldn’t hurt. Just missed behind Sanctify in last.

Race 9

• 8 Given Fire – didn’t quite handle the 7F last time she was at the distance, but does have good speed. Not unreasonable in this field.
• 1 Rumble Doll – decided plodder needs the right trip. Should save ground and depends on Maragh to keep her clear for a the stretch one.
• 9 Thatza Wrap – Pressing style; only six starts and eligible to improve

Race 10

• 3 The Spotted Wonder – tried this level last out and missed just over a length. Should be controlling the pace and at long odds is worth a look
• 1 Permanent Campaign – drops the the level at which he broke his maiden. Figures say he has a big shot.
• 9 Toy Cannon – only lost by a half length last time he was in for $40K. Starting to look like a professional NW2L though.

What a chaotic day yesterday. Only one favorite won, and that was the last race.  We’ll look for a little more form today. The late pick-4 unnecessarily has two maiden 2 year old races and may be difficult to play.

Race 1

• 2 Tiz May West – Claimed last out by Jacobson after just missing on a sloppy SAR track. Has a win and place on fast dirt. Jumps way up today, but Jacobson has a way of placing his horses where they can win first after the claim.
• 1 Wraith – has been knocking at the door and switches jockeys back to Maragh. In a race with good early speed her pressing style may be  the right formula.

• 5 Angel Code – broke her maiden at Parx last out and figures to be the pacesetter here. Izzy Rodriguez looks to get another win at BEL.

Race 2

• 4 Steve – Phil Serpe drops the horse to the lowest level he’s ever been in an attempt to get a win. Threw in a clunker last out, but that was in the mud and the race can be discarded. Race prior at this level was first on a fast dirt track in a while and he nearly wired a field.
• 6 Betweenhereandcool – another Jacobson claim and he wheels her back at this level. Was highly regarded at a 3 year old in the Assmussen barn; betting that Jacobson gets him back on the winning track.
• 7 Silver Morgan – claimed last two and now in Michael Maker barn. On his best he could handle this field.

Race 3

• 4 Stage Name – puts the blinkers on for Patrick Reynolds who has had no success with that move from a limited sample. Drops down to $25K for this race. Has shown some interest after switching to the turf his last two.
• 1 Barbara’s Smile – has run creditably her last two and should move forward today for Sciacca.
• 3 A P Johnson – showed good speed in sprints and should get to the front in this field. One stakes race on the BEL turf was a good effort considering the troubled start.

Race 4

• 3 Big Business – better than 1/3 of his starts have resulted in wins. Last in a Grade 1 outran his odds to finish second to the highly regarded Palace. Plenty of tactical speed.
• 6 Saratoga Snacks – ran evenly in the Morrissey coming off an 8 month layoff. Mott horses often need a race so expecting improved performance today.
• 2 Eye Luv Lulu – been running decently in state bred stakes. Drops down to winning level and should be competitive today.

Race 5

• 5 Cheyenne Nation – won for $40K last out at SAR and once he gets going he can string them. Not sure how to read the price drop today but if he is in top form he is a major contender. Rodriguez barn has been cranked for this meet and Franco riding well for them.
• 3 Abilio – has been showing good speed but not a great proclivity to win. However, this will be the second off the claim for Jacobson and if anyone can get the horse pointed in the right direction he can.
• 6 Emkanaat – was a middling horse in Europe and about the same here. Tries hard and can be there with a top effort.
• 9 Karakorum Legend – Already started at the meet and looked good in both 2014 runs at SAR. Should be close at the wire.

Race 6

• 1 Lady Lavery – was a little short last out but was never going to close on a dawdling pace, especially after getting bumped in the stretch. Has plenty of tactical speed and eligible to move up.
• 2 Forensic – just missed last time at SAR. Has a decidedly closing style and has only been out of the money once. Solid if not spectacular.
• 4 Love and Marriage – one start where he closed furiously, only to fall short. Probably needs to break a little better and stay out of trouble; should be fine with the slightly extra distance.
• 6 Miz Lee – three in the money finishes at GP and KEE. Back off 5 months rest; not Tagg’s best move but the horse did run very well first out.

Race 7

• 5 Sky Painter – hard to take a favorite in this super competitive field but this horse barely missed in the Miss Grillo and ran a bang up race first out of 2014, losing to Invading Humor who came back to win a stakes on Sunday. Like her chances here.
• 6 Seda Francesa – ran two disappointing races at BEL earlier this year. Was rank in her last which compromised her chances, and Clement has been working with her since then. Betting she’s learned her lessons and will be ready for this start.
• 12 Distorted Beauty – has been dominating state bred optional claiming fields and moves up to take on open allowance company. Can never discount the chances of horses that like to win.
• 4 Cash For Ever – easily defeated a maiden field at Longchamp in the puzzlingly slow time of 2:03 for a mile and an eighth. Kenneally has had success with first time Euros, she gets Lasix and go-to jock Lezcano.

Race 8     The Gallant Bloom

• 1 Artemis Agrotera – two powerful races in a row at SAR, one in the grade 1 Ballerina. Has dominating figures plenty of tactical speed and looks like she couldn’t be coming to the race in better shape. Two eye catching workouts since last. Will be a solid favorite and figures best on paper.
• 2 Merry Meadow – has been solid in graded events, although at best looks like a grade 3 horse. Double the number of places as wins. Chances here.
• 3 Bridgehampton – lots of early speed but looks a cut below these horses.
• 4 Classic Point – looks in over her head. Only win this year came at OC $62.
• 5 Willet – useful horse in state bred stakes, but couldn’t handle Artemis Agrotera last time and not a lot of reason to think she can today. Bobbled at the break in the Ballerina and with a better break should be the second best horse in the race.
• 6 La Verdad – set the early fractions in the Ballerina and should be winging today. No reason to expect her to get a soft early lead. Depending on how the track is playing, could fade or hang on for a piece.

Race 9

• 5 Skill Not Luck – Chad Brown firster and all his horses are live. Solid workout pattern.
• 7 Whateveryouwant – Bumped at the start first out and went wide around the turn as a result. Should improve today.
• 2 Frosted/First Down – Frosted is a second time starter that figures to improve after getting punished by Bayerd. Probably not going to have that issue today. Stablemate First Down is a first timer coming in off a series of slower works. Albertrani horses usually need a start.

Race 10

• 6 Dubai Sky – puts the blinkers on and everyone knows Mott horses always need a start.
• 7 Escondido – Pletcher returns the horse after a two month break. At this point you have to believe the $370,000 purchase is a keeper and will be ready to run this time.
• 9 Andalusite – closed with gusto after not showing much interest in the early going first out. Looking for improvement this start.

A lot of favorites came in on Thursday, highlighted by a new track record by Transparent. The track generally played fairly. Of the four dirt races two were won by horses on the front end, one by a pace presser, one by a sustained runner. Of the four turf races, one was won wire to wire (the 10th where Resolutely was the only real speed), one by a presser, and two by sustained runners. The dirt obviously had not only dried, but got very firm, and I expect track maintenance will work to slow it down a bit for Friday.

Race 1

• 2 Dr Disco – claimed 2 back by Contessa and back at the level of his claim; plenty of tactical speed and the highest recent figure of any. Another race where the favorite is a must use in the pick-3/5.
• 5 Say Mr. Sandman – dropping from state-bred NW1X, but he was pretty much at the $20K level until Chris Englehart found a NW3X that he dominated at FL. Another with good tactical speed and a proclivity to run well.
• 1 Star of New York – seems to have a tendency to finish in the money more often than win, but could get a piece of this pie.

Race 2

• 3 Maximus Mike – puts the blinkers on after being claimed by Scott Schwartz last out for $16K. Has been running longer so well see if he has the right combination of tactical speed and closing kick to run by this field.
• 4 Master Yank – I’ve said this three days in a row, but everything Abigail Adsit has been putting on the track is live and competitive. First off the claim she brought the horse to FL and won a MSW and brings him back to BEL in a $25K NW2. Leave him out at your own peril.
• 8 Q Two – Claimed by Terranova for $25K, jumped up to $40K, and placed back down at $25K today. His last race was totally uninspiring but prior to that he had been front running effectively.
• 7 Ice Wagon – has been knocking around at this level a while. 6 of 9 in the money, but only one win.

Race 3

• 5 Sunny Desert – Massive pace figure in the slop at AQU earlier this year, came back on the slop at SAR and just missed by three quarters. Not just a mudlark – 6 of 11 on a fast dirt surface. 8-5 on the ML and looks like it.
• 1 Girlaboutown – defeated Blithely in her last and that one came back to win here two days ago. Given the poor start in her last and the patient ride from Ortiz, she should give Sunny  Desert all she can handle.
• 4 Carameaway – has been looking for the right spot and I’m not sure this is it. Slightly slower than the top two, but did win a state-bred stakes last out at SAR.

Race 4

• 8 Blue Collar Cat – finished last season by being crushed in the NY Breeders Futurity at FL, but prior to that was developing nicely. Michael Dilger takes over training duties and he is 20% first time out. Good 2 year old figures could translate well in his first of 2014.
• 7 Discreet Kaz – goes first time out for Peter Kazamias who is 1 for 6 with that move. He has a limited workout tab and will be long odds, but given this field of professional maidens, he might be worth a wager.
• 4 No Nukes – 19 starts, 4 seconds and 5 thirds, so not inspiring for the win slot, but this field is fairly week and he can’t be completely discounted as a win prospect.
• 1 King Gettigan – another maiden with a dozen starts and 8 seconds and thirds.

Race 5

• 6 Monument Hill – ran lights out at SAR last time and does show some good BEL races. George Weaver good off the layoff. Should be in a pressing spot with run left in the stretch.
• 4 Helm – recently got through his NW1X race. Nice starts, eight in the money. Looks very competitive for Graham Motion.
• 3 Dangerous Lad – ran well last out against slightly higher and has been in good form this year. Good at the distance.
• 7 Admiral Perry – does his best running in the stretch. Ships in from PID but has shown a liking for the BEL turf. Definite chances here.

Race 6 

• 1 Hundred Percent – ran a good race first out. He battled hard for the lead and was beaten by runaway winner Skerkis. As long as there isn’t another monster lurking out there
• 12 Jacapo – Hushion was the king of NY at one time and he can still get it done. He’s hitting at a 24% clip this year overall and 23% with his 2 year olds. Has a nice workout pattern including a bullet 12 days ago.
• 7 Watergate – a bit of a puzzle. Ran well first out on the slop, came back on the turf and performed poorly. Back on the dirt today and plenty of tactical speed. We’ll see if he’s learned his lessons.
• 4 Eddie Boots – goes first time for Gary Gullo who has a good ROI with first timers. Nice blowout work two weeks ago. Probably will show speed in a race with a lot of horses who like traveling toward the front.

Race 7 

With Ziptronic out of the race Billy the Bull inherits the front running spot. This makes him dangerous and worth using in the verticals and horizontals.

• 10 Ziptronic – is riding a 3 race winning streak including two races at this level. Horse is definitely “zippy” and Bruce Levine is good at keeping horses on their toes.
• 6 Hear the Footsteps – didn’t fare so well at SAR but prior to that was competitive at this level and above. Hard knocker rarely runs a bad one
• 7 Dowse’s Beach – is riding a two race winning streak. His last was a hard drive  and Clement gave him six weeks rest. He has a few good works for this race.
• 5 Isn’tlovegrand – Did not break well in his last at SAR but prior to that was very competitive. Seems to hang a bit in the stretch but is good enough to get a minor award.

Race 8

• 5 McIlroy – in a race with minimal early speed, McIlroy represents the best of the group. Winner of his last at this distance; has been steady and working  well.
• 4 Middleburg – goes for Clement. He’s another that hasn’t run a bad lifetime race (after his maiden debacle. Two seconds in two tries on the BEL turf. Pressing style so should be close enough to get into the hunt early.
• 10 Mills – an interesting horse at long odds. He switched to the Bill Mott barn in August and Mott has been working him steadily. Takes the blinkers off, and frankly other than the first time he ran with blinkers they haven’t made a difference. Something of an angle play but will be good odds.
• 1 Barrel of Love – has been running well this year and likes the BEL turf. Coming out of slightly better races.

Race 9

With the scratch of Nellinger Path makes it into the top four. Path did not break well last out in the mud and can be excused for that race. McGaughey does well with 2nd time starters.

• 3 Ocean Foam – jumped to the front last race and gave it up in the stretch. Excellent out for her first try ever. Fastest of the horses that have started before.
• 9 Nellinger – looks like she has been crying for distance. She didn’t embarrass herself in the Colleen which was run on a fast pace. Could be the value horse today.
• 6 My Senses – drew the dreaded rail first out, broke in the middle of the group and was basically pinned there the entire trip. Has a better post today and one race of experience. Dangerous.
• 2 Twist ‘n Bake  – first timer for 18% trainer George Weaver. Nice steady work pattern. Should be ready to run.

Well let’s hope the crowd has a couple of brain cramps like they did on Wednesday. After two odds on favorites and a 2-1 choice in the first three races, mud lark Quezon won at 8-1 followed by an Abigail Adsit upset with Rap d’Oro  and another 8-1 horse in First Bid.

Race 1 – Stepplechase

Race 2 – Steeplechase

Race 3

• 5 Untiltherewasyou – broke her maiden in the mud at SAR for $40K and immediately jumped over her head and on the wrong surface. Showed some interest but was outclassed. Back at the right level today.
• 1 Clockstopper – was another who broke her maiden on a muddy track. Broke through the gate in her last and tired badly so I’m just pitching the race. Chad Brown drops her to this level and he doesn’t start a horse unless he means business.
• 7 Ocean Boulevard – was well regarded as a juvenile, but hasn’t looked as good at 3. Last race was better than looked – broke out at the start and was really all over the sloppy track. Track should be tighter today and that may be a help.

Race 4

• 8 Mama Zee – has a good turn of early foot. Been vacationing since July 30 but has three recent short workouts . Claimed by Bruce Brown last out and dropped to her lowest level in about a year. Last race was game.
• 7 Bridget Maloney – another last out claim, this one by Joseph Imperio who is fair with returning claimers. Has recently been with State-breds so this is probably the right level. Imperio tries blinkers again.
• 1 E Z Passer – riding a three race win streak; started three back at this level. Plenty of speed, competitive figures and Rosario riding.
• 2 Matching Skies – third last time after a stretch fade, claimed by Abigail Adsit who has been sending out live, competitive runners.

Race 5

• 4 Honor the Kitten – claimed last out by James Klesaris after being fractious at the gate, breaking awkwardly, making a wide move down the backstretch, swinging wider for the drive and making up some ground  to finish 4th by 2. Pace in that race was slow early, so closers get some extra points.
• 3 Southern Blessing – Another first off the claim by Eddie Kenneally who is 21% off the claim. Closing style, competitive figures.
• 2 Part – nice jockey switch to Maragh, threw in a clunker last out but broke from the far outside and was never able to get into the race. Looking to regain early season form dropping down to $25K.

Race 6

• 4 Swell – flipped in the gate last out, still ran and was brave in the stretch while third a length and a quarter. Probably best last race, looks best today.
• 6 Giantinthemoonlite – was an impressive maiden winner at BEL last May. Bumped at the break in last at SAR but still went to the front, fading in the stretch. Big chance here today.
• 1 Cuantos – second a nose in that same race as 6. Likely favorite and will be very tough here.

Race 7

• 1 Harlans Six – missed the break last out and had a big task to finish only five out at the end.  Experience helps her.
• 3 Battle Axe – getting a little better each start. Has negotiated the distance; pressing style but good stretch courage.
• 10 Bebop Raindrop – Debut was impressive, going off as the favorite and missing it all by three and a half. Should be in a good spot turning for home.
• 12 Ack Naughty – is the obligatory Chad Brown starter. Typically nice set of workouts, and Irad gets the call.

Race 8

• 5 Escapefromreality – gets the nod. In her lifetime 8 races, if you exclude the Gotham she has NEVER lost a race by more than a neck. Looking for her to turn the tables on Sinistra today.
• 9 Transparent – was a highly regarded three year old but is probably better placed as a four year old in this spot. McLaughlin expert with layoff horses and the workouts look positive.
• 4 Goddtimehadbyall – Perhaps a tad cheaper than some in here, but has been hard-knocking for a few years. Sound, solid runner that always gives you the best he’s got.
• 6 St. Moose – claimed by the lately active Eddie Kenneally and claimed the last two races before that  In good shape, competitive figures and Rosario in the saddle.

Race 9

• 10 Edie – two wins in her last two at BEL, almost identical in terms of running style and time. Just missed at SAR three weeks ago. Looking for her to run back to BEL form.
• 6 Starship Pleasant – front-runner really hasn’t run a bad race since March. A little tough to push past the field to the wire, but very consistent figures.
• 2 Swakopmund – claimed two back by Contessa, jumped her up to $50K and brings her back at that level today. Prefers coming from mid-pack. Competitive with these.
• 4 Sheza Heartbreaker – led until very late in her last at SAR. A mile tests her distance ability, but you have to respect the speed.

Race 10

• 2 Sakonnet Point – been off 10 months but Sheppard is expert at getting them ready off the bench. Three year old figures were competitive with these and gets Irad as the pilot.
• 6 Escape to Malibu – didn’t do well at the gate last out, ran more or less evenly after a tardy break. Has to get by the two in this race that beat her.
• 5 Graceful Gal – another with a start that doomed her. Made a big middle move and sustained to the wire. Impressive for a younger, inexperienced filly. Johnny V returns in the saddle and that is a positive. This race is all but devoid of speed and I’m betting that she gets the front with a good break.
• 4 Dixie Gem – showed improved interest with blinkers on last out. Should be one of the horses running in the lane.

The mid-week cards have been disappointing at Belmont. Races either look like only one horse can win or nobody can win. The “co-features” are a pair of NW1X Allowance races for state breds circled by three maiden races, three claiming races, and an optional claimer. I can guarantee this – there will be a couple of races where you’ll be scratching your head about the winner, especially now that they have taken three of the six scheduled races off the turf.

Race 1

Stays on the turf, scratch the MTO, Lotasa Noodles.

• 6 Kenzadargent – was racing in Group races as recently as June; won his last at about this class; had serious seconditis in Europe but isn’t up against much today. Looks like another winner’s circle picture for Brown and Irad.
• 2 Almost an Angel – is listed at 10-1 and isn’t any worse than others in here; trainer hitting at 24% this year and the combo with Gabriel Saez has been even higher. As much right to place as anyone.

Race 2

• 1 Invasion Point – has been fading badly in longer races and on the turf. but his best race was on the dirt at a mile and an eighth; drops another notch in claiming price  and takes the blinkers off. Maker 22% turf to dirt.
• 6 Wishandaprayer – first timer for Carlos Martin shows some quick works; could take the field all the way.
• 9 Artemus Paperboy – disappointed as the fav two back and never got into the race last out. Jacobson claims win with great regularity and it would be a surprise if he stayed a maiden too much longer.

Race 3

Has been taken off the turf. My original selections are shown below. MTO 1 Julie Napp is at 6-5 on the ML and probably will go off near those odds. The other MTO 8 Mr Rico Is Valid has some early foot and may actually go off as second choice. This does not look like a good betting race.

• 2 Stage Name – puts the blinkers on and drops back to 6F. Drops from starter allowance last two to $40K NW2L claiming.  Reasonably good chance in a weak field.
• 6 Courageous Karen – hasn’t shown an affinity for being in front at the wire but does have competitive figures; another that only looks good based on the weak field.
• 9 Blistering Strike – Drops from Penn National ALW to this claimer. At 12-1 she generates some interest.

Race 4

This race was tough before they took it off the turf. Two MTOs 10 Shoot the Moon and 11 Quezon are both first time starters  and neither was listed at low odds on the ML. Quezon has a very high wet track rating and may be the value in the race. The other MTO 12 The Lewis Dinner is listed at 2-1 on the ML and may go off lower. She has two races with a place and a show. She’s backed up in the stretch but,  of the starters, dominates in terms of figures. Go Babe still looks playable considering she showed speed on the dirt last out. 

• 4 R Y Squadron – one of the ubiquitous Chad Brown 1st time starters on the turf. Looks typically ready to pop.
• 7 Go Babe – showed a bit of speed when fighting the bit and looks like she bled a half mile in. She gets Lasix today and Castellano.
• 1 Stolen Victory – Part of the Contessa entry along with Wesdrewmax. Nice series of works, especially the last one.

Race 5

• 4 North Ocean – has run some excellent figures and has been relatively consistent. Claimed in each of his last three and dropped to his lowest level today. If he’s healthy, he’ll be hard to beat.
• 2 M J Plus – has been first or second in half his starts. The hot David Jacobson trains.
• 7 Matt and Jesse – is more of an in the money type but is fast enough to get a piece here.

Race 6

Two MTOs in this race, 4 First Bid and 10 Classic Sense. They are likely to be the top two choices at post time. 1A Killer Crossover has primarily been a dirt horse and has a very high wet track rating. 

• 9 Pep the Champ – likely has some physical issues that keep him from starting very often. Looked good breaking his maiden and came back to finish less than a length out in a $50K starter. Back at this level with three solid works since his last. Addition of blinkers two back seems to have made all the difference.
• 5 March Reward – puts the blinkers on today in an attempt to focus his speed. Fast enough to be the winner, but needs to show some heart.
• 2 Smokey Brown – been close in 3 of 4 this year and should run his best at today’s distance.

Race 7

• 7 Blithely – Three race career, a win and two places. Laid off for close to a year and came out at SAR running; only figures to  improve today.
• 1/1A The Lost Tigress and Very Accomplished – Very Accomplished finished 3rd in the Blithely race at SAR but seems a little stuck at NW1X. Lost Tigress second in the mud last out and seems just as well placed as stablemate.
• 8 My Girl Madison – speedster ships from MTH and jumps up a little here. Three solid lifetime starts.
• 4 Verisimilitude – ran into the monstrous effort by Girlaboutown first out on the SAR dirt, came back to win on the turf after a troubled trip. Looks very competitive here

Race 8

• 5 Iced Over – Broke his maiden on the SAR grass and lost chances when he stumbled at the break in his NW1X, but made a nice close to finish 3rd.
• 9 Adams Note – tactical speed, competitive figures and 10-1 on the ML. Not without chances.
• 8 Blue Pigeon – Clement trainee is improving; thought well enough of him to put him in a Grade 2 as a 2 year-old. Needed the SAR races and should run his top race today.
• 1 Gridley Here – has been with quality NY breds this year; cuts back in distance to the mile and seems well suited for that. One of the competitors in a competitive race.

Race 9

• 9 Tiger D – 2-1 ML favorite been knocking at the door and should be let in today.
• 5 Boston Strong – Not quite Wicked Strong but has done well in two starts with state-bred maidens. Took a month off after last but has been working steadily  for his return.
• 4 Talledega – he’s shown a nice closing kick in both of his races and his last workout might give him a little more speed than he’s had. Solid contender.
• 10 Keen’s Culpa – 15-1 longshot finished 5 behind Tiger D in his one turf start and didn’t disgrace himself. Worth using for a minor award at the odds.

It’s another day where with competitive races, some with a bit of guesswork involved.

Race 1

• 4 Shayjolie – broke her maiden at BEL, could have had one last had Divided Attention not ran lights out
• 1 Running Wild – in a five horse race it’s going to be tough to find a price; this horse is as close as you come

Race 2

• 7 May Flowers – Jeremiah Englehart has had success in this sort of race. Nice steady workout pattern including a big one last time
• 1 Sunnysammi – good speed last out, looked like she was a winner and then crashed into a wall. Came back to work well though
• 2 Desert Image – Weaver is one of the better first out, 2 year old trainers and the last workout says “go” for the filly

Race 3

• 5 Remarkable – showed big early zip and a little bit of courage in the mud last out. Could set her own pace this time
• 1 Loving Lorri – troubled trip last out, puts shades on and gets Lasix this time
• 4 Savvy Sassy – One of two Clement trainees here; Irad takes this one which suggests she’s the better; been working at BEL all along

Race 4      Ashley T. Cole

• 1 Effinex is a MTO
• 2  Front goes for the hot Jimmy Jerkens barn. He’s 2 of 6 on the BEL turf, including a win against open OC$62 in May. Last race was his best figure-wise. He’s been consistent and reliable and at 10-1 ML would be the second choice for me here.
• 3 Lubash has been something of a win machine with 10 victories in 36 starts. This 7 year-old horse was last seen finishing second a head in the West Point at SAR. He loves the BEL turf and you have to expect him to run his usual competitive race today. Totally in the mix.
• 4 Kharata has been a bit of a tease lately, but did win the Kingston two back. His figures are as solid as anyone’s in this race. He’s sharp at the moment and is 9 of 11 first or second on the BEL turf. An in the money player.
• 5 Notacatbutallama is neither of those but a horse that has burned a lot of win money. He was third in the West Point that a few of these horses are coming out of. In his last 10 starts he has never finished farther than 6 lengths behind. He’s definitely been more focused with the addition of blinkers in his last two. No surprise at all if he wins but more likely in the money.
• 6 Spa City Fever is a MTO
• 7 King Kressa was well-enough regarded to head over to Hong Kong for the prestigious $2.5 million Hong Kong Mile. He only beat two in that race and laid off until August when he came out to wire the West Point field. He’s coming back in a month and given the stress of that effort might bounce. The pace in the West Point was relatively slow early and the presence of a slew of pace pressers in this race should make it harder for him to loaf up front. He’ll be a deserved favorite, and is the top choice, but could has some vulnerability.

Race 5

• 2 Mop Head – running consistently but having some trouble getting over the top this year; a very tepid top choice
• 9 Tiz Yankee – just faltered in his last when Rosie lost her irons in the stretch; Zito jumps him up and he could hardly be in better shape, but the 2 for 22 with 10 seconds makes me wary of using him a lot on top
• 6 Make it Gold – been another frustrating runner but has the figures and potential to catch a piece
• 8 Loveisheartandsoul – 2 for 5 in a brief career, claimed by Contessa last out, improvement definitely a possibility

Race 6 

• 1/1A Be Bullish, Back Forty – Be Bullish is the stronger of the two but has had a lot of races this year. Back Forty was claimed two back, dropped for a win, and jumped back up today. Shrewd trainer  may win two in a row
• 5 Street Shark – Ian Wilkes lost the horse three back to Contessa and grabbed him again two back. Likes to win on all surfaces and tracks
• 2 Summer Sunset – threw a clunker in last out, laid off since middle of July but two nice comeback workouts; runs well fresh
• 7 Broad Rule – claimed by Abigail Absit last out and given the size of her stable, she’s always looking for wins; an outside chance

Race 7 

• 4 Day Six – showed much greater liking for mile and a sixteenth; has tactical speed and upwardly trending figures
• 7 All the Way – should be winging on the lead and will have to withstand some challenges in the stretch; Bush not so good with second start maidens, but this could be the exception
• 6 King of Bay – ran lights out after bobbling at the break. One more jump up can be the difference today
• 8 Throckmorton – missed the break, blocked and checked twice in the stretch when making a move; scary today

Race 8

• 11 Old Harbor – goes back with state-breds; likes BEL turf and has an effective pressing style; lately has been with better
• 8 Henry’s Gal – has plenty of speed, 4 of 8 wins lifetime; improving 3 year old and should be at her best distance
• 5 One Time Only – consistent but hasn’t really been facing this quality the last three outs
• 3 White Sangria – wasn’t happy at 5.5F at SAR; prefers BEL and slightly longer; 7F should be perfect. Perhaps a tad cheaper than the best in here

Race 9    John Hettinger

• 2 Frosty Bay has been uninspiring against open claimers and in restricted stakes this year. Would really have to make  big improvement to win here.
• 3 Stock Fund has been effective in ALW races, and her last win came on this BEL turf. She’s not been the distance and it looks like she’s a minor player in this one.
• 1 Carameaway – SCR
• 4 Selenite is another that hasn’t been the distance. She won a division of the NY Stallions Series last month at SAR, but that was against 3 year olds only. She also looks destined for a minor award.
• 5 Strike Accord has only won an OC $40K this year. Would have to seriously outrun her odds to get a chunk here.
• 6 Effie Trinket has been with the right crowd but has been struggling to crack the winner’s circle. She’s best on the BEL turf and has won at this distance. She has a best last out pace figure and for that I’ll put her on top.
• 1A Dreaming of Cara is 3 for 37 and her last win came two years ago. She’s 0 for 11 on the BEL turf. Not much to recommend here.
• 7 Get Gorgeous – SCR
• 8 Mah Jong Maddnes is not sweeping the country, but the horse by that name definitely has a shot here. She’s a stakes winner this year and has good speed out of the gate. She hasn’t been the distance, but if Lezcano rates her well, he could milk the mile and an eighth out of her. A contender.
• 9 Princess Mara looks like she could use the cutback in distance. Patrick Quick has not been having a good year but given the speed  Princess Mara has a chance to hit the board at long odds.
• 10 Invading Humor is another that hasn’t negotiated the distance previously. She wired a field on a slow pace last out, but doesn’t figure to get dawdling fractions today. Another with an outside shot.

Race 10

• 6 Chief Kitten – best of the prior starters, Brown/Lezcano has actually been a high percentage combo
• 4 Brother O’Connell – cuts back in distance for his second start after being wide  last time; three snappy workouts since
• 1 Gear Jammer – was wide last out but made a valiant close. Should be closer and if Alvarado finds a way clear could be the one
• 8 Mark My Style – puts the blinkers on and stretches out in distance; looks like a smart move by Contessa

Well, as The Who said, just another tricky day for you.Thursday continued the odd week at BEL with another seconditis horse won (Downgoesfrazier) and someone popped a $20K win bet on Surfing USA, who then promptly ran out of the money. I’ll do a short blog piece on that tomorrow. But for now, let the madness commence for Friday.

Race 1     Betting Value  – C      4-3-6

This really looks like a two horse race on paper – actually a one horse to win and one horse to place race. Money Changer looks set to break his maiden. The Pletcher trainee just missed a head at SAR, has all the speed in the race (and the track has been relatively kind to front runners the last couple of days), and has the best figure to boot. 9-5 would be really optimistic to hope for. Courtier had a nasty trip first out. He was wide and steadied. He is trained by Bill Mott who is well known to have almost no chance with his firsters, but is much better second out. The second place finisher from his SAR race has already come back to win, and while he’ll have a tough time running by Money Changer, it’s not out of the question. Someone has to run third and it might be Rimbaud. He went off almost 60-1 first out, but should catch better action this time. He’s bred to like a dirt mile.

Race 2      Betting Value – C      4-1-7

Lil Honey Badger was claimed in June for $30K at CD by low profile trainer William Heffner, who promptly took the horse to SAR and put her on the turf in two optional claimers NW1X for $75K. She showed good speed and didn’t fade badly in either turf start. She drops to a $50K NW3L today and has as good a shot as any to pick up the win. Bartiromo raced well in an OC NW1X at BEL but clunked at SAR. In fact, she has a win and a second on the BEL turf and should loom the major threat. Al’s Gal has a second over the BEL turf and convincingly won a $40K NW2L last out at SAR. Bruce Levine and Jose Ortiz have been a potent pairing and the step up in claiming price makes sense.

Race 3      Betting Value – C      2-5-1

This really doesn’t look like a great money-making race. Of the starters, Treasure looks very good. She went off at 5-2 in her debut for the strong Jimmy Jerkens stable and only lost by a length and a quarter. Paris Bikini goes for Todd Pletcher who seems to be live every time he puts a 2 year-old on the track.  She has a nice series of works and some nice works on the SAR training track. Pletcher can afford to wait until horses are ready, and while she may not have made the SAR meet, she still has a chance at some of the richer fall races. Onus is coming out of the same race as Treasure. She broke slowly, but steadily made up ground until hanging in the stretch. She’s certainly eligible to improve.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      2-1-8

This is a competitive race for the wrong reason – nobody looks that good. There are two 1 for 20somethings and two who are just about to enter that category in eight entrants. Let’s face it. You don’t drop a horse from ALW $75K to a $16K claimer just because you’re desperate for a win. The drop on Sheriffa seems very negative, but if the horse holds together around the track she is the fastest animal in the race. Andromeda’s Risk is dropping from $25K and has been off since April. I sometimes think the trainer is just prepping the horse for the winter meet at AQU, but in this field and at 12-1 I’ll give the horse a long look. Golden Cheetah has bounced between low level claimers and NW1X and is 1 for 19. I don’t think she is a likely winner, but she could make up part of the tri.

Race 5      Betting Value – B      2-4-1-8

This is another low level, state-bred optional claimer for NW2X. The Lady Says Yes won a state-bred ALW NW1X in June in her first start of the year at BEL, came back at SAR and ran poorly. It’s likely the horse had some physical issues earlier this year, and perhaps they cropped up again at SAR. Trainer Chad Brown has given the horse a nice series of workouts to prep her for the race and assuming she doesn’t have any residual issues she is the best horse in the race. Carribean Beat has been knocking around at this level for a while and has managed to reel off three in the money finishes in a row. She ran strongly in her last against two solid state-breds in Distorted Beauty and One Time Only, and off that race has a big shot to win in here. Run to Mama is coming out of the same race as Caribbean Beat and finished 4th in that race. She has a pressing style and in this race doesn’t have a lot of speed to run past. She has a win over the BEL turf and a nice :36.2 blowout four days ago. She looks ready to run a good one here. Lucky Nancy E. tried a state-bred stakes on the dirt last out and did not impress. Before that she had won three of six and her last two in a row, including a wire to wire victory at a mile at Belmont. She seems to have blossomed under the care of James Ryerson and has the best early speed in the race. If she’s allowed to go out on her own pace, she’ll be tough to catch.

Race 6      Betting Value – C      7-9-1-3

How can you not like a horse called Funky Monkey Fever? She broke her maiden in an off the turf event and has been running into bad weather and races over her head. She should be a bit of a price and if Alvarado positions her well could run by the field in the stretch. Bossanova Lady ran a nice race at big odds in a SAR sprint last out. She’s never run a mile but is bred well enough for the distance. Given her sprint background I’d expect her to be very close to the front. She has my second favorite jockey (anyone else is first) up, but I like the fact that she’ll be ignored. Costenia just broke her maiden in wire to wire fashion and Todd Pletcher thought well enough of her to pop her back in this $50K starter event. I like the wakeup last out and if she takes to the BEL turf could get a piece. Lonely Teardrops broke her maiden over this BEL turf in wire to wire fashion two back and came right back to just miss at SAR. She needed 17 starts to win the first time and maybe she’s figured it out.

Race 7     Betting Value – B      2-9-3

Sweetpollypurebrd ran a strong second first out to easy winner Hard to Stay Notgo. This field doesn’t look like it has nearly the talent of her last and a wire to wire victory is well within her ability. First Service has a steady work pattern for her debut, including a nice five furlong breeze a week ago. Johnny V takes the mount and he rides at 35% for Michael Dilger.  Janny Love goes for Linda Rice who has a good record with 2 year-olds but has not done will first out. I like the workout pattern and Cornelio Velasquez should help the horse’s chances.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      6-1/1A-10-9

Zinzay switched stables after a fading 6th in her last out. Graham Motion takes over the schooling duties. Zinzay broke her maiden at first asking and since then has been in two graded stakes and a restricted stakes. She has acquitted herself well in those races but has clearly been a little over her head. She tries to get back on the winning track today and seems to have found the field to do it. Dancing House is making her 2014 debut after running three graded stakes in 2013. She showed a lot of promise at a two year-old and Kieran McLaughlin has hit at a 26% rate with long layoff horses. She may be prepping here, but if McLaughlin has her wound up she could be best. Her stablemate Ballylee has been stuck at this level a while, but has shown some talent. Hobe Wins goes for Graham Motion after first trying the turf at SAR. She had a bit of trouble in that race but still finished with interest. She adds blinkers today and gets a good jockey switch to Jose Ortiz. American Girl is the interesting horse for me. She broke her maiden in Ireland last February, came to MTH and ran evenly around the track. She took a month an a half off and shows one official workout four days ago. The Alan Goldberg/Angel Arroyo combination is not inspiring, but they have won one out of two races together.

Race 9      Betting Value – B      10-7-9-2

The 9th is another $40 MCL for state-breds on the turf. Barrier to Entry is a six start maiden that is dropping from straight maidens. The drop is warranted since she hasn’t been a threat in her previous races. She has decent speed and her best start came over the BEL turf. She looks better suited to the 6 furlong distance than 5 1/2. Quit Smokin has been going off at boxcar odds but catches a much weaker field. She’s got some good tactical speed and perhaps the drop to the claiming ranks will be what she needs to take her over the top. Read It and Weep drops back a quarter mile in distance, a move trainer Terri Pompay has had great success with. She had a lot of trouble in her last and should be contending at the wire. No Trespassers ran her best race last out. She’s certainly no better than a $40K claimer, but if she continues improving she could get a piece.

The midweek races at Belmont have not been what you’d call high quality. Bottom level claimers, NY State bred messes, and NW1X passing as the feature race. Strange things can happen on these type of days, like the 1 for 44 Eurokay by Me winning a race. Sort of blows your handicapping expertise right out of the water.

Race 1      Betting Value – B      2-7-5

Once again the day starts with a bottom level claimer. The fact is that most of the horses at this level have physical issues, are nearing the end of their careers, or are often over-raced. Noble Doss has managed a win and a second from only four races in 2014. Lifetime he has a win, place and show at BEL. On his good days he will press the pace and look to draw off in the stretch. He actually won at this class level as recently as June, and was definitely in over his head in a $25K starter allowance a month and a half ago at SAR. He likes the BEL surface and if he runs back to either of his two recent BEL efforts he should be the winner. Summit County was claimed back out of his last at Finger Lakes by Chris Englehart who is quietly having an excellent year. Summit County has run more races on the turf (16) than on the dirt (7) but has the same number of wins on each surface. Clearly Englehart likes the potential of the horse because he grabbed him back after only one race. His last win was at the $10K level at FL, and realistically this is no jump up in class at all. This looks like a good spot for his second win of the year. Magnificent Moon was claimed last out by Michelle Nevin, another trainer quietly having major success. The horse has two wins in four starts at BEL, and the switch to the Nevin barn can only help.

Race 2      Betting Value – B      8-6-2

The second is a $40K maiden claimer at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Beauty Surprise is listed at 2-1 on the ML and looks fairly strong against this group. Her last was at a mile on the inner turf at SAR. She was breaking from the 10 post, got jostled out of the gate, went wide into the first turn, but finished in a herd of horses, 5th by only three lengths. She’s had some useful workouts since then and Clement should have her ready to go. Reckless Move makes her second start at the $40K level for high percentage trainer Anthony Dutrow. In her last she prompted a fast pace to the top of the stretch before dropping back. Little Miss Brown set all the fractions before getting caught in the stretch and returned to win her next. If she can relax up front she could last all the way. More Everything is also making her second start at the $40K level and is coming out of the same race as Reckless Move. More Everything stayed a bit closer than she had in her previous races and ran fairly evenly around the track. She could improve enough to be a factor at the wire. Shaikha will draw some action on the basis of her 6 place finishes from 16 starts. She is a low probability to win, but could be part of the tri/super.

Race 3      Betting Value – B      2-7-6

The third is a NW3L for $50K claimers. Shore Runner solidly beat a field of $40K NW2L claimers in his last out and was claimed by Ian Wilkes who has been 29% first off the claim. Shore Runner has two place finishes in two races at BEL and despite the career best figure in her last, has had plenty of time to recover so I’m not overly concerned with a bounce. Joking has lately been in with starter allowance types, probably close in class level to this group. In his last at SAR he ran evenly around the track, but given he had been off since April he probably needed the race. He’s primarily been a dirt sprinter, but in his four turf races he does have a second and third. Asset Inflation soundly beat a state-bred NW1X field at BEL in July at today’s surface and distance. Maker and Castellano have been a high percentage combo, the horse has plenty of natural speed and has been working steadily for his return after a brief rest. Very dangerous if Maker has him wound up.

Race 4      Betting Value – B      5-10-4-11

This is the mess of a race with which they love to start the Pick-6 sequence. Invasion Point gets the nod here. Michael Maker has had great success with the route to sprint move on the turf. In his last Invasion Point had to gun to the front from the 11 post, was hung wide around the track, and was still there to the top of the stretch. Based on his three lifetime starts he seems better suited to sprinting and fits well against this group. Spa City Treasure nearly won a turf sprint at SAR last out, losing a neck to the heavy favorite Eternal Bull. He’s a lightly raced 5 year-old that should be pressing the pace and finishing well. Bad to the Roan has been off since May, but trainer George Weaver is fair with this sort of layoff horse, and has been working him steadily for his return. It’s likely after the race someone will be asking, Whyalwaysme. The horse has been doing all his turf running in route races, and was well enough thought of to achieve favoritism in his last race, his second at the $40K claiming level. He showed a little bit of speed in that race and may appreciate the cut back in distance.

Race 5      Betting Value – C      1-2-6

There doesn’t seem to be much insight here. The favorites look best in this field, and frankly they all seem a bit suspect. Frame broke his maiden at the $40K level last out. He seems to have good speed and should find nice position from the 1 post. It’s pretty clear whatever potential he had when his connections debuted him at SAR last year has diminished and he is probably better suited for this cheap claimer. Herd Mentality has 11 starts, his last seven in diminishing claiming levels. It looks like Steve Assmussen is trying to move the horse out of his stable. Herd Mentality does have a good turn of foot early and fits about as well as any at this level.  Perfect Disco is dropping to the $16K level after finishing second in a $25K NW2L last out in May at BEL. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious reason why he should have laid off for four months, then dropped in claiming price. His workout pattern is also a little spotty. But, at least he hasn’t gotten to the confirmed NW2L place a number of the others in here have.

Race 6      Betting Value – C      1-9-6-4

This is a straight maiden for 2 year-olds at a mile. Cover Up breaks from the rail, and if she breaks more efficiently than her last race she should have a say. She may not have a lot of natural speed, and if that is the case she may wind up running the same race as last out, buried on the rail and having to swing wide for the drive. I’m leaning toward the horse breaking better and establishing a more effective pressing position. McGaughey does well with second time starters, and has had great success combining with Joel Rosario. Kinsley breaks from the far outside post, and given the lack of speed she showed in her first outing at SAR she may wind up staying wide the entire trip. She was well thought of in that race, going off as the 5-2 second choice. She looked good enough that her owners paid $300K for her as a yearling and she is regally bred, so the mile distance should not present an issue. Sweet Maya has already had two starts, her last at 1 1/16 miles on the turf when she had a very difficult trip. She was bumped out of the gate, steadied when cut off going into the first turn, stuck on the rail for most of the race and was left with little for the stretch. She’ll be much more competitive on the dirt and at BEL where she already has a second place finish to the very talented Cavorting, the horse that won the Grade 2 Adirondack. Midnight Citra had little on the turf at SAR and returns to the BEL dirt. She seems better bred for the dirt and Mott does much better once his horses have had a race or two.

Race 7      Betting Value – B      5-8-3-1

This turf sprint features the usual mix of budding professional NW2 horses and horses looking to find a win.  Lunar Tales was claimed last out by low profile trainer Cam Gambolati for today’s price. He does have a win over the BEL turf and adds blinkers today to help focus his speed. Vecino is really not dropping in class today, going from a state-bred NW1X to this $40K claimer. He was bet off the board in his last, could not keep up with a very fast pace, and really showed little in the stretch. He should be part of the early pace duel and if he runs back to his maiden winning race he will be a factor. Bajan Summer broke his maiden at BEL for $40K and ran well in a $25K claimer at SAR where he was claimed by Gary Sciacca. Sciacca has not dazzled with first off the claim, but he looks competitive in this race. Golden Story goes first off the claim for Jacobson who has been lights out with these sorts of horses. He has plenty of speed and should be in the leading group down the backstretch. He’s been a little heartless in the stretch, but hopefully Jacobson cures that.

Race 8     Betting Value – B     5-8-4-6

I really wanted to like Mack Miller in this race. He trained the first horse I ever bet, a 12-1 shot named Royal Spouse. Fortunately he scratched so I didn’t have to make a decision. Surfing U S A face planted out of the gate in his last and pretty much lost all chance. He was a nice third in the Tampa Derby and ran well at BEL in his debut race. He looks really solid in this race. Encryption was soundly beaten in the Haskell – clearly he was over his head – but prior to that he ran competitively in the Long Branch and the Pegasus. He’s well suited for the distance and has plenty of tactical speed to get position on the outside. Cool Samurai ships in for John Sherriffs off a disappointing finish in the RB Lewis. His maiden race was a flat mile at BEL and he far outran his odds to finish second to none other than Wicked Strong. He’s been with better and should be competitive today. Mosler was a bundle of nerves in his last start. blowing his energy running to the front  from the rail post and fading badly. He clearly needed the race since he had been off for close to a year. Trainer Bill Mott is 32% with runners off long layoffs. He takes the blinkers off today and and should improve in his second start of 2014.

Race 9      Betting Value – B      11-2-5-4

None of the MTO’s scratched early which means they are concerned about rain. Barring that, Bella Kateri gets the nod. The switch from Michelle Nevin’s barn to Lisa Lewis is more negative than positive, but she has shown some talent in her three starts and ran a good race at BEL in May. She went off as the favorite last out and disappointed. Let’s hope she’s not just a money-sucker and she runs to all her ability today. Manner of Speaking makes her third start and 2014 debut for Linda Rice, who has been struggling so far at BEL. As a 2 year-old she ran faster than other horses in the race have run as 3 year-olds, and for me this is a huge angle. Rice is fair off the layoff, and if the horse is wound up today she will be a big factor. Roman Reign goes second out for low-profile, high percentage trainer Peter Pugh. Pugh has only five starts with 2nd time maidens, but has won two of them and is 5 for 19 overall this year. In her last race she was tardy out of the gate and still showed a little interest. With a good break she could definitely be there at the wire. Gu Gu Beans is turning into a money-sucker. She has two seconds and two thirds in her last four races, and while she is definitely competitive with respect to figures, she is a bit chancy in the win slot.