Race 1

• 3 Radamel – showed some speed in a SAR sprint where he was bet positively. Switched trainers since that one to David Cannizzo. Has a steady series of works for race 2.
• 2 Richie’s Rich – Ran a good learning race first time out at SAR where he was bet down to favoritism. Didn’t have the best of trips but should improve today.
• 1 Ackeret – first timer for Rudy Rodriguez who has been hot at the fall meet. Good series of workouts for this debut.
• 7 Whateveryouwant – first two starts nothing to get excited about, but does drop from better MSW to the claiming ranks.

Race 2

• 11 Flamingo Lane – Abigail Adsit trainee is a short neck away from five wins in a row. She won her last and no reason not to continue today. Fastest figures but has to overcome the outside post.
• 2 Edie – Jumps up a little for Chris Englehart but has been consistent since May. Is 6 for 6 in the money at BEL.
• 4 Lady’s Lunar Luck – Hasn’t won this year but has been competitive. More likely to finish in the money than win.
• 9 Arsenal – 7 year old mare has only 18 starts, indicating some physical issues. but when she starts she runs competitively.

Race 3

• 4 Simple Love – Kentucky bred started his career in Ireland but returned to the states this summer. Has run well with the addition of Lasix and fits with this crew.
• 3 Radiant Cut – didn’t start well last out but in her prior three races was competitive. Both turf wins have come at BEL.
• 6 Medalglia d’Argento – has turned into a closer since claimed by Linda Rice three races ago. Her last she stayed a little closer to the pace but was no match for Snowbell. Perhaps Rice has figured out how to get the best out of her.
• 5 Blisstering Strike – despite being bumped her last grass sprint at Laurel she ran pretty well. Better on grass for sure.

Race 4

• 4 Horatio – won a NW1X at BEL in June but hasn’t had a closing kick since then. Given his ten starts in 2014 he probably need the 9 weeks rest.
• 5 Glory Game – Woke up last race where he pressed and stayed on evenly throughout the race. At 15-1 ML might be worth a look.
• 1/1a Reggie D/Decesion Point – Neither runner has shown a lot of interest in winning but they are good prospects to finish in the money
• 2 Hurry Up Alan – One of the few Jacobson hasn’t gotten to win lately. However, he owns the horse so he may have greater incentive today. Drops to his lowest level this year.

Race 5

• 4 Dreaming of Danny – has been claimed his last two outings. Showed good speed in his latest, although it was in the slop. Back on the turf today; he is one of two at BEL
• 8 Royal Blessing – Makes a big drop for Albertrani and clearly he needed the relief. Has been running longer but does show two wins at the distance.
• 1/1a Dubai Time/Back Away – Dubai Time has been right there at the wire in his last two starts. Back Away has won a third of his races and nearly half of his turf starts. Given Saez is named on both, one or the other should scratch
• 6 Summer Sunset – should have the lead although this is his first time on the turf. We’ll see how long he lasts.

Race 6

• 8 Alexandrie – Went off as the favorite for Pletcher. Took the lead but gave it up badly. Pletcher has been working the horse lights out on the turf and gives her a first race on it today. Will be bet again but has great prospects.
• 7 Perfect Freud – has two starts and showed improvement in her last. One of the few with turf experience.
• 6 Stolen Victory – had all sorts of excuses in the mud last out. Looking for her to run a much improved race today.
• 3 Miss Matzoball – has the best pace figure of the horses that have started. Improved substantially last out with Lasix and if she stays on that track could be the winner.

Race 7

• 2 Here’s Zealicious – horse is relatively hidden in this race. Was claimed by Contessa two back and he immediately jumped her up over her head. Her next was on a sloppy racetrack and she stumbled and made the death move to rush up into the race. With a clean start she could win this one at nice odds.
• 7 Run a Dubb Dubb – Rice trainee has been off since May but before that was something of a win machine.
• 1 Bridgetta – has been competitive in her last five races and is 8 of 10 first or second at BEL
• 5 Irish Sweepstakes – Hennig has been having a good meeting so far and off her best she is competitive with these.

Race 8

• 3 Red Vine – in his last 10 has only finished out of the money once. Competitive with these.
• 9 Can’thelpbelieving – consistent runner should be closing in the stretch.
• 7 Joe’s Blazing Aaron – beat a few in this field going wire to wire. Will try the same tactic today.
• 4 Arctic North – fastest last race pace figure. Hasn’t won this year but usually gives a good accounting

Race 9

• 10 Tom’s Vision – seven start maiden has the best figures of any of the previous starters. Dropping from MSW so looking for a better effort today.
• 3 The Frood Dude – last race was his best.
• 11 Wishandaprayer – did not finish well in the mud last out but the turf will be firm today. Has speed and may not get caught.
• 2 Spark to Ignite – another one dropping from MSW to claimers. Last was not memorable but was on the dirt. Before that ran well on the turf. The combination of surface and class drop should give him a fighting chance.

My complaint the past couple of Wednesdays has been the quality of the races. Not today. There are plenty of competitive races on the card.

Race 1

• 4 Talladega – Trainer Ed Barker has quietly had a nice year from very limited starts. He looks like a trainer who has plenty of time to spend with his charges. Talledega has run three consistent races but has come up short each time. He cuts back to a mile today and in this field he has good prospects. Irad Ortiz stays aboard.
• 11 Forever Utopia – has 12 starts and 8 seconds. That is not an encouraging statistic, but he did just miss in his last after leading until the shadow of the wire. You have to respect his ability but the seconditis could be endemic.
• 8 Starago – did not disgrace himself in his first start and should be much more prepared for this start

Race 2

• 1a Screenplay – Speedster toted 130 pounds in his last at MTH and not unexpectedly faded in the stretch. He has won a third of his turf starts. He can handle the mile and an eighth but has to worry about Southern Proper on the front end. Only a tepid favorite for me.
• 7 Abilio – Rudy Rodriguez claimed this runner from David Jacobson last out. He’s coming off a win in that race, his first in two years. No reason he can’t keep it rolling for Ru Rod today.
• 4 Skiffs Brewmeister – last seemed a bit beyond his comfort zone considering he had no stretch kick. Has had a good 2014 and is by far the best closer in the race. Has a big chance today.
• 5 Days Ride – won his last at SAR where he was claimed by Steve Klesaris. Should have a nice position down the backstretch. One of a bunch with competitive figures.

Race 3

• 4 Ferzetti – two starts with two seconds at DEL. Stretches out to 6F but is the fastest of the horses that have previously started.
• 6 Riddle Me This – first start was on the turf early in the SAR meeting. Third place finisher Partisan Politics ran respectably in the Miss Grillo and 6th place finished Hooligan won a restricted stakes at Laurel. Has a good set of works leading up to this one. Puts the blinkers on for Rodriguez.
• 1 Coral Beach – showed a mild closing kick in her SAR debut and drops into a MCL today. Pletcher decided to not use one of his main jocks and gives his exercise rider Kari Francois her first chance. It’s a big task from the rail but maybe the 10 pound bug makes a difference.
• 9 May Flowers – not a great effort in the mud last out. Puts the blinkers on today and has a nice 5F drill ten days ago. Englehart not known for 2nd time maidens but this one could be the exception.

Race 4

• 2 Premium – After three races in the U.S. McLaughlin adds Lasix. Looks like she will prefer the longer distance. Workouts suggest she’s ready for this one.
• 4 Clearbrook – In ten races she really hasn’t run a bad one. Lately has been showing speed. Second last was a respectable run against males. Switches from Mott to Brown and that may be enough to put her over the top.
• 8 Little Journey – three straight graded stakes and three respectable runs. The other Chad Brown trainee puts the blinkers on.
• 3 Sabbatical – winner of a NW1X in her first lifetime turf start. She may have found a home on the grass.

Race 5

• 6 Boca Babe – has two off the turf starts, one where she was a 21+ length winner. Drops down to a $25K NW2. If she runs back to her maiden she should romp today.
• 9 Benny’s Bullet – lots of early speed and looks like she is best meant for the sprint distances. Has to overcome her tendency to back up near the wire.
• 3 Amber Morning – been knocking on the door lately but with 15 starts may be more likely for a smaller piece.
• 4 Calm Reply – Interesting runner comes off two five furlong sprints at DEL. Has an outside chance.

Race 6

• 6 Buddy the Elf – Switches from the turf to the main but his breeding says he’ll like the dirt. Nice work ten days ago.
• 5 Got Winged – coming out of the same race as Buddy the Elf. Was very wide around the turn but stayed on in the stretch. Looking for  improvement on the dirt today.
• 2 Mr Harlan – first timer for Lisa Lewis has a short but impressive work tab. Don’t care for the rail post, but Harlan’s Holiday has had some impressive two year old runners.
• 10 B.B.’s Remingon – has a nice series of workouts for his debut including a quick 35 2/5. Contessa not known for success with firsters but I like this one to be competitive.

Race 7

• 1 Elroi – had a poor start  but the jockey did the right thing and didn’t rush him up. Closed a lot of lengths to only lose by two. Like his chances today.
• 3 Analysis – hasn’t run a bad race in 2014. Competitive figures.
• 11 Jonrah – Still looking for his first win since being claimed by Contessa. He’s offered for the $40K price in this OC event which makes me wonder if Contessa isn’t ready to give up on the horse. Still did beat a similar field at BEL in June.
• 2 Mobridge – has a good closing kick but there isn’t a lot of good speed in the race to set it up for him. Has a chance in a wide open race.

Race 8

• 1 Bay of Plenty – two powerful wins in a row, top figure in the race. However, is coming off a five month layoff and that is at least a little cause for concern. Has worked steady for the return.
• 6 Vinceremos – laid up after getting trounced in the Kentucky Derby and the Blue Grass. Was a force in Florida earlier in the year and could return as any kind. My instinct says give him a race, but with Pletcher training, hard to leave him out
• 8 Saint Vigeur – was a useful stakes horse in 2013 and comes back today after almost a year off. Chad Brown is 23% with this move but his figures may have to improve to beat this bunch.
• 5 Crushing – Came off a year layoff to win an OC at Parx then moved to Delaware where he was trounced in an OC$65. However before that he was very consistent. Six year old has only 21 starts so probably some physical issues to contend with, but Chad Brown wouldn’t start him if he wasn’t ready.

Race 9

• 5 Mary’s in Utopia – winner of the coin flip for who gets put on top in this race. After 10 starts she finally gets moved to the grass and only misses a neck. I’m going to assume that’s where she should have been all along. Trainer is 1 for 26 this year, so that is cause for concern, but the odds should be right.
• 6 Maura’s Pass – Drops into a MCL for Clement. One of many with a competitive figure.
• 7 Lovely Lanie – Another dropping from MSW. Actually showed some speed last time and held well in the stretch. Should also be a pretty good price.
• 12 Laura Can Disco – showed good speed last out but ran into mudlark Penella. Gotta think if she duplicates that run on the turf she has more than a fair chance.

Due to a technical glitch I won’t have time to post the analysis, but I will post selections for each race. Some big upsets yesterday, but I did have 6 out of 11 race winners.

Race 1   2-4

Race 2   6-4-1

Race 3   8-7-3-1

Race 4   2-1-5

Race 5   10-11-4

Race 6    2-12-11

Race 7   5-4-1-7

Race 8   9-4-3-2

Race 9   12-9-3-4

Race 10   5-4-2-1

Race 11  2-4-9-11

Great looking card with a lot of competitive races. With rain in the forecast some of the turf races may wash off and if they do we’ll make some adjustments.

Race 1

The two MTO’s, 10 Royal Posse and 11 The Spotted Wonder, made it in and we’ll make them the top two choices 

• 6 Macagone – was a close second in this condition last out at SAR. It is a little worrisome that he had a three length lead in the stretch and got caught. He has had success on the BEL turf before. Low profile trainer Michael Wilson manages to entice Castellano to take the ride and that has to be a positive move.
• 9 Tiger D – is a three start maiden with a lot of upside. He hasn’t run a bad race in his career and owns a win breaking his maiden last out at BEL. Workout since that race should keep him on edge.
• 3 Iced Over – won at the Spa over a mile and an eighth and has run two gallant thirds in the NW1X classification. Seems lke a mile an a sixteenth would be the right distance for his late kick.
• 7 Oklahoma Dan – 15 lifetime starts and he seems to battle every time. I think he’ll run his best at today’s distance. Certainly has the numbers to be competitive.

Race 2

• 2 Dickens – puts the blinkers on for low profile trainer Roy Lorman. Dropped into a MCL last time after trying MSW in Florida over the winter. After a five month layoff he certainly needed his last. Should improve today.
• 3 Smoke Police – Chad Brown trainee looked good in his maiden event at SAR but faltered badly in his last MSW after being bumped and checked. Expecting him to run back to his first race form.
• 6 Heading to Boca – has been off since being claimed by Michelle Nevin last January. Hasn’t shown a lot of speed and that may hurt him today. Steady works for the return. May need a race to show his best.
• 5 Ireland’s Eye – had a little trouble at the start last out, rushed up, and gradually gave way. Looks like he can go turf or dirt. Gets a big weight break today.

Race 3

There are no MTO’s in this off the turf event but there are a lot of horses that potentially move up. In fact the 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 all have superior mud ratings. This race looks a little messy to me and unless you have a strong opinion, play carefully.

• 6 Consumer Credit – gets the nod in a very tough race to handicap. The Chad Brown runner ran into traffic when looking to close the opening weekend at BEL. That race had a good maiden field. She should be able to stay clear from the 6 post and put herself in the right position to win.
• 7 Lana’s Fortune – Was in the same race as the 6 and was making some headway in the stretch. Englehart has been having a competent season and gave the filly two decent maintenance works for the return.
• 4 Tela – ran well at Delaware last out when she was well clear of the third place horse. I like her chances today.
• 8 Nellinger – 20-1 ML for Contessa off two sprints at MTH  including the Colleen. She won’t see those kind of fractions today and should outrun her odds.

Race 4

• 5 Ever Rider – Excels at the longer distances and just missed to Cary Street in his last. Has been showing speed  but probably will cede the front to Village Warrior. Has the class and the bottom to beat this field.
• 1 Cary Street – Winner of the Greenwood Cup at Parx last out in pretty decent time. Has been running well in 2014 and deserves a chance to race with the big boys.
• 2 Awesome Vision – hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle this year but has been competitive in state-bred stakes.  Should have no issue with the distance and may get a piece of the pie.

Race 5

• 6 Lunar Tales – claimed last out by Contessa and is immediately jumped up to a $50K starter allowance. Has never been on the dirt much less the wet dirt, but does have the wet track rating to be successful. I figure Contessa has him wound up and can’t afford to pass the race.
• 3 Celebrated Talent – Since this is now off the turf we need to look at the MTO’s. He ran a good race last out and was taken by Linda Rice. Has a freakishly high wet track rating. Looks very tough in here.
• 8 Ghareeb – another with an outstanding wet track rating. Last race figure suggests he is in top condition. Should be winging on the front end and if the track is playing to the front his chances are upped consideratbly.
• 9 Giant Fox. The other MTO. Prefers closing but does have a 2 third place finishes in his two wet track races.

Race 6     The Frizette     6-3-1

• 1 Cavorting – one of the many with a very high mud rating and the winner of the Grade 2 Adirondack. Her breeding suggests she should have no problem with the mile.
• 2 Wonder Gal – won the state-bred Lynbrook but was no match for Cavorting in the Adirondack. Anohther Tiz Wonderful which means a love for the wet track. Definitely will improve with the added distance.
• 3 Ring Knocker – Still looking to break her maiden but has run fast enough to be a factor here.
• 4 Featherbed – broke her maiden by 10 at SAR in August and Pletcher  has kept her working steadily for this start. She was a $330K purchase in the spring, so the connections think a lot of the horse.
• 5 Cayman Croc – has been the distance but simply doesn’t look fast enough here.
• 6 Condo Commando – would have been the favorite even without the mud to contend with. Tiz Wonderful progeny are superior in the mud and given her 13+ length victory in the slop at SAR she seems to have inherited the trait. Gotta believe she’ll be winging on the front end and will have to get caught to not win.
• 7 By the Moon – another with a superior mud rating. Was a distant second to the 6 in the Spinaway and no reason to expect a turnaround today.

Race 7     9-15-14- 1

• With all the scratches and the race being taken off the turf, the MTO’s look good. Of the originally entered group that stayed, 9 Iron Power has run well on the fast dirt but has some decent wet track breeding. He is certainly in top form. 11 Kiss of Thunder is 1 for 1 on the wet surface.

Race 8      The Champagne    6-1-2-3

• 1 El Kabeir – Good wet track breeding, Demolished a field in his maiden at SAR. Improving horse that could take them all the way.
• 2 Upstart – Won the Funny Cide with a nice close last out. Very competitive figures despite them coming in state-bred races.
• 3 I Spent It – Second in the Hopeful, winner of the Saratoga Special. Wouldn’t be a surprise here at all
• 4 Holy Boss – Impressive maiden winner at CD but he’s up against some quality animals here. Can’t totally discount but wish he had shown something against this kind.
• 5 The Truth or Else – broke his maiden on the SAR dirt in pedestrian time. Looks up against it here.
• 6 Daredevil – runaway winner of his maiden in the mud at Belmont three weeks ago. Pletcher is deadly in these 2 year old stakes.

Race 9     The Hill Prince      1-9-3-5

• 1 Ring Weekend – has only started three times on the turf but has a win and two seconds. His pressing style should serve him well in this race considering there seems to be a couple of horses that will be dueling on the front end. You have to like the steady improvement he’s shown this summer after pulling up in the Grade 3 Pegasus. Has as much right as any horse to win.
• 2 Sloane Avenue – Kentucky-bred only has three starts all in England. His two races at lesser tracks were good, but at Newmarket he couldn’t handle the mile and a quarter and the field. He seems a little ambitiously placed in a graded stakes.
• 3 Blacktype – French bred is 0 for 5 on the turf but has two wins on the synthetic at this distance. Does not show any group races in his pp’s, but Clement is known to get the best out of these shippers, sporting a 31% win rate with shippers to North America. Has been here since mid-August so should be well acclimated. I’m more inclined to figure him for a minor award.
• 4 Smooth Daddy – has been on the turf all but one of his races. Showed an inclination to run to the front in his last two and I don’t expect that tactic will work in today’s race. Still, he did run second to Ring Weekend in the Saranac and has possibilities for a minor award.
• 5 Tourist – another horse with front-running tendencies. Set reasonable fractions in the Secretariat and actually beat Ring Weekend in the Saranac. Has run well off of short layoffs previously. Ultimately he may be more useful at a mile, but he certainly can get a mile and an eighth. Franco returns to ride today and he does have a win piloting the horse. At a 3-1 ML he doesn’t look like great value to me and I’m not leaning in his direction for the win.
• 6 Sheldon – Finished 3rd in the Secretariat but looks like he wants the longer distances. He has finished within four and a half lengths in his last two Grade 1 efforts and could be making up lengths in the stretch.
• 7 Pumpkin Rumble – really doesn’t look like he has a chance here.
• 8 Cabral – another French-bred horse that comes over here with his trainer and jockey making me think they might have late October plans for the horse if he runs well today. Doesn’t have any graded races and the couple of races for which he has figures are middling at best, plus he’s 0 for 3 on the turf. I don’t think he’ll be seeing my money.
• 9 Mr. Speaker – also ran in the Travers on the dirt, but he did come from well out on the good BEL turf to win the Belmont Derby. He’s won graded stakes on synthetic and the turf. Has to be careful not to compromise his chances by going with the solid speed burners. You have to like his chances.
• 10 Daddy’s Kid – does not seem to have the talent to compete at this level.

Race 10

• 1 Leroy Jr. – One of the two Chad Brown trainees and it really looks like a two horse race with both of them. Leroy has plenty of speed and has run his best races on the dirt.
• 4 Groupthink – has been knocking around at this condition for a while but his last was good enough to beat this field. Flip a coin but don’t bet against Chad Brown.
• 3 Captain Toews – ran into the tough Dyker Beach in his last two. 6 1/2F may extend him the limit of his abilities.
• 8 Tapidor – broke his maiden at a nice price moving from the turf to the dirt in his last. He was an expensive purchase at the 2012 Keeneland sale. Would not be an unreasonable play here and will be a price.

Race 11

With this race taken off the turf, things could change, but all my original selections are all running except the 2B. 14 Watergate has a high wet track rating and ran well in the slop at SAR first out. 

• 9 Space Cowboys – showed nice speed in his first out and has a bullet work three days ago. Matt Peebles is 1 for 3 with 2nd start maidens – limited sample but impressive looking percentage.
• 1A Mark My Style – Cuts back to 6F after contending most of the way at a mile. Looks fastest of the horses that have started; change from Saez to Franco probably positive.
• 8 Boldlee – closed first out and pressed second out. Three horses came out of his first start to win, and a couple have tried stakes company. A little bit of improvement and he is a maiden no longer.
• 2/2b – both are first time starters although for different trainers. Chase This Bandit has been working steadily for Linda Rice, B.B.’s Remington has some quick drills for Gary Contessa. Could upset the horses that have some experience but I’d want a little more than 6-1.

Race 1

• 5 Gold Shield – he was a million dollar purchase at the Keeneland  last September. He went off at low odds in his debut race but ran very poorly, quickly retreating to the back of the pack and not making a notable move at any point in the race. He has returned with two nice workouts, one looking like McGaughey might have been trying to put a little more speed in him. This field is very weak and if he runs to the expectations they had when they purchased him he should beat this field.
• 1 Wild Dynaformer – We’ll toss his last race in the mud and assume the $350,000 purchase will run much better this time with the addition of Lasix. Albertrani has been strong with 2nd start maidens.
• 2 Combat Diver – Did not like the BEL turf first out but has been a route. Did have a bullet work five days ago.

Race 2

• 1/1a – Indian Nobility scratched out of a race yesterday to go in this spot. Jacobson claimed him last out and so far this meet he has been lights out first off the claim. Classic Salsa looks like the weaker of the two. He stumbled at the gate in his last start and was bumped in the start before that, but he did come close to wiring a field at BEL in May.
• 4 Longfor the City – Ran evenly in his first race back in nearly a year. Clement is 32% 2nd off a long layoff
• 2/2b – One of the horses should be scratched since Ortiz is named on both. The stronger of the two looks like Indy Sea. He goes for the hot Rudy Rodriguez barn second off the claim. He has three starts at BEL with a win, second, and third. He ran a good race last out after bobbling at the start and should improve today.
• 5 Herd Mentality – should be the horse in front and the one to catch.

Race 3

• 6 Ocean Boulevard – won a NW2L at this price last out and switches to the Violette barn for this one. Has the best last out pace figure.
• 3 Da Wildcat Girl – another last out winner. Has been having a good 2014 running around this level.
• 5Little Gidding – Ran poor in a race that was simply too fast early for her to keep up. Should find the pace more to her liking today.
• 1 Lady Doris – Goes for Abigail Adsit first of the claim at SAR. The race at SAR was a fair run and Adsit adds the blinkers for this trip. Adsit has been doing a respectable job of improving horses and may have one much better than looked last out.

Race 4

• 4 Blazing Truth – best last out pace figure. Drops from MSW to MCL for trainer Mott. His horses usually need a race or two and this looks like it should be his best effort. Second start after the addition of Lasix.
• 5Ready Strike – Weaver is 24% with first time MCL. More Than Ready is has been putting a lot of strong 2 year olds on the track. Has a nice series of works including three recent works on the turf.
• 2 Innocuous – A firster for Albertrani who has been lately much better with debut runners.
• 1 Lucky Leroy Brown – has had two middling turf starts at MSW but drops down today for trainer Rice. Could be the formula for success.

Race 5

• 7 Bossanova Lady – ran his best race in these condition. One of a number of horses with the same figure, but looks eligible to improve.
• 3 Casey Roo – just missed last out at a mile and a sixteenth and should do better with the cutback in distance.
• 8 Saratoga Karaoke – plodding sort that could get into the race in the stretch. Looks like the stretch out will have some benefit.

Race 6

• 4 Glacken’s Gift – ran well in her BEL debut a year ago but has been on the shelf since. Clement is good off the layoff and she has a nice series of works for her 2014 debut.
• 2 Mumtaazah – Made her debut last Nov at AQU, laid up after that race until SAR but did not distinguish herself. Shows no works between the middle of July to the end of August, so something probably happened in that race. Has been on the track in the morning four times in the last month so should be ready to go. Rider switch to Davis from Saez.
• 3 Majestic Empire – First timer for Hushion who has been having a good BEL meeting from limited starters. Like the works.
• 6 Love That –  Pletcher first timer’s are usually live, although this one is 6-1 on the ML. He gives this one Lasix. Have to respect.

Race 7

• 2 Wealth to Me – was claimed by Jacobson two back for $20K, jumped up to $40 and just missed. Cuts back to 7F. Has the best last race pace figure.
• 5 Doubledown Again – third consecutive claim last race, this time by Michelle Nevin. Not as hot as she was at SAR but still having a decent BEL meeting. two seconds from two starts at BEL.
• 1a Ground Force – has been running consistently good numbers and likes the BEL dirt. FIrst time off the claim for Contessa and he is just 10% with that move.

Race 8

• 4 Miz Orwell – last in the Yaddo after being bumped at the break. Fits much better with this group and this distance.
• 12 Frosty Bay – only three lengths behind in the Hettinger but has been having some trouble cracking the winner’s circle this year. Looks like this might be a good spot to break through.
• 10 Chrysolite – Last two have been good efforts and except for a small nose to Run to Mama would be going for his third straight win.
• 3 Lucky Nancy E. – set the pace in the Run to Mama race and with the cut back in distance could stay to the end.

Race 9

• 7 Enduring Touch  – nice series of works for her debut. Terranova not deadly with first timers but does get Ortiz to ride.
• 5 Majestic Jessica – ran well in her first start, although Bruce Brown has had some hard luck getting his horses to the winner’s circle. Looks best of the horses that have started.
• 3 Madoo – Violette average with first time starters but this is not a strong field so she has a better chance.
• 6 Sandra – ran 4th in the Sweetpollypurebrd race on a lenght and three quarters behind Majestic Jessica. She was running hard while wide and should improve with a better trip.

The word us that we are back on the turf today. That should make things a little more pedictable.

Race 1

• 8 Angel Choir – is dropping from MSW to MCL after showing speed at the mile distance. Even though she is on the outside, she should have enough early foot to get into the race out of the gate. Definitely looks like she needs to be given a looser rein. Looking for her to have enough to run to the wire in front.
• 6 Pure of Spirit – did not break well last out and was totally trapped down at the rail in the stretch. Jockey Rice looked like he had some horse in the stretch, but had nowhere to go and when he finally got out showed some run. She also drops from MSW. With a clean trip she’ll have every chance.
• 1 Beauty Surprise – seemed the best last time when she had to alter course in the stretch. Will have that same issue from the rail today. Second off a short layoff and Clement is pretty good with that move.
• 7 Reckless Move – last race was her best. Has been improving since dropping to MCL.

Race 2

• 2 Kool Kat Strut – broke slowly last out but still finished with interest. First off the claim for Shettino and gets a switch to Ortiz.
• 5 Igotthediscoinme – Nick Esler 31% when debuting in maiden claimer. Last work points to good potential. Read the Footnotes is a good sire with 2 year olds.
• 7 Scattered Dreams – two starts in the mid-Atlantic, two second place finishes. Trainer Bailes has not won at BEL yet, but has a useful runner here.
• 9 Sandler – Pletcher drops this horse from MSW after a short layoff. Have to expect a better run today.

Race 3

With the scratch of Shankopotamus Cay to Pomery looks like all the speed and his chances are significantly increased. 

• 1a Cay to Pomeroy – Since Worrie is named on both parts of the entry, one of them will scratch. This looks like the stronger part of the Englehart coupling. Has a ton of speed and will have to contend with Shankopotamus up front. Class drop should give the horse a better shot to hang on.
• 5 Shankopotamus – the other speed in the race. Was claimed last out by Sciacca after pulling up in the stretch closing day at SAR. Sciacca kept him on the claim and has given him a couple of works in prep for this. Has won two of his last three.
• 7 Starship Captain – has a win over the BEL main. Was claimed two back by Levine and only finshed 4 behind strong winner Capital City.
• 4 Zoebear – in the money in more than half his starts. Was claimed last out by Toscano and he is 15% wheeling them back. Actually looks a little better at the six furlong distance than routing.

Race 4

• 5 Miss Potenza – stretches out to 6F. Held off the closers and was game to the wire in her first dirt start. Michael Lerman has been 21% from a limited group of starters this year. Best figure of the horses that have started.
• 4 Club O R – puts the blinkers on for Violette who is not killer with that move. Was brushed at the start, retreated quickly to the back, steadied down the backstretch, and tried to make a closing move to no avail. Has to improve today.
• 2 Zenstone – first timer for Gary Gullo who is 25% with debuting MCL. Has an abbreviated workout tab but the works are good.
• 12 Midnight Champagne – outside post shouldn’t hurt. Broke well in her SAR race on the turf, but hit a wall after 3/8. Drops into MCL in an attempt to hang on longer.

Race 5

• 2 Honor the Kitten – Jumps up to $50K claimers after a solid win last out. Could bounce of his last, which was only two weeks ago after a two month layoff. Has been with better and definitely fits this group.
• 3 Charlie’s Picnic – is 2 for 2 over the BEL turf including a last out win. Moves up to 7F which will definitely stretch his talent. Rosario stays aboard.
• 7 Joking – hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle on the BEL turf but has been been knocking. Should have no trouble with the trip.
• 1 Why Not Whiskey – competitive figures, having trouble crossing the wire first this year. Can be used in the backholes for sure.

Race 6

• 15 Scooby Dude – ran an immense race last time out. Was pushed all the way back at the start, started making a sustained move about five furlongs out, and looked strong in the stretch. Based on that start has a huge chance today.
• 2 Kerjillion – Chad Brown trainee led to deep in the stretch. He and Castellano have been a powerful combo. By far the best figure of the horses that have started.
• 11 Pronunciation – coming out of the same race as the two mentioned above. Ran evenly after being bumped at the start and having to go wide. Improves with a clean trip.
• 9 Doctor Red – first timer for Michael Maker who is 21% with debut horses. Nice set of workouts.

Race 7

• 8 Sunlover – drops into a $40K NW2L. Last out was first off a long layoff. He broke toward the rear, stayed wide throughout and managed to close some lengths in the stretch. Hasn’t won in a while but his last win was on this turf course. Should go off at decent odds.
• 1 Bajan Summer – 1 for 3 on the BEL turf. Sciacca keeps him at the same level second off the claim. Has been running competitively and has the figures to win this race. Ortiz gets back up for Sciacca.
• 2 Defining Product – just missed last out and was claimed by William Heffner who is 1 for 2 first off the claim. Should like the cutback to 7F.
• 4 Vona – Almost wired a field at Sar last out. Goes second off the claim for Linda Rice. Has enough speed to take them wire to wire.

Race 8

• 7 Bakken – Chad Brown trainee is coming off a second in the Grade 2 True North. Has run consistently good figures and looks totally the horse to beat.
• 6 Geaux Mets – Destroyed a group of state breds last out at FL. 50% win rate, has not run a bad one in a year. His best puts him right there.
• 5 Captain Serious – Didn’t really run as expected last out but cuts back to his optimal distance. Lots of early foot but perhaps a beat behind the horses above.
• 3 Candyman E. – probably the best stretch runner. If the race breaks down, he may be the one coming.

Race 9

• 8 Mythical Man – drops into a $25K NW3L. Should enjoy the cutback in distance and the switch from McCarthy to Lezcano.
• 10 Media Kid – has been close in his last four after winning a $20K starter at AQU in April. Has lost to a string of horses that have won their last out.
• 11 Loveisheartandsoul – Back to $25K after trying $50K last out. Looked strong winning at SAR. Was taken by Contessa that day and this looks like the right spot for the horse.
• 10 Media Kid – 9 of 15 in the money. Good prospect for the back holes.

Another interesting day at Belmont. There will be some prices today. I hope we find some of them.

Race 1

• 6 Star Magnolia – has been off since May but Michelle Nevin has been strong with this move. Big drop from a $40K starter allowance but broke her maiden for this price in Feb. Steady works since early September for the return. Best figures.
• 1 Shesgotthemoves – the other Nevin trainee was claimed last out for $25K. Wouldn’t be a financial loss if she won and was claimed, but still have to wonder why she’s being dropped. Don’t care for the two week break in workouts. Nevin 25% first off the claim.
• 7 Mononoke – 21 start maiden not a high probability to win but does have 2 seconds and 7 thirds.

Race 2

Only three starters remain in the race, making it unbetable. Most likely 5 Bold Runner will be a strong favorite. 

• 1a Jimmy Fillpot – Rudy Rodriguez has been on fire at the BEL meet and drops this one from MSW to a $50K claimer. Rodriguez 20% with the drops. Good speed and perhaps the drop allows him to keep it to the wire. 
• 8 American Strong – ran a bang up race off a one-year layoff and is another one being dropped into the claiming ranks. Excellent win prospects.
• 6 Professor Pegasus – has been knocking around this level a while but his last race was his best. 
• 3 Tree Fire – Hasn’t gone off at less than 25-1 but does have a couple of close 4th place finishes in four lifetime starts. Not a surprise if he fills out the exotics.

Race 3

• 5 Cara Marie – Expensive yearling purchase looked green in her first start but did show a bit of speed. Dutrow is huge with second time maidens. Nice work 5 days ago at Fair Hill where Dutrow keeps a barn. Lots of positives including Castellano staying aboard.
• 3 Puca – broke poorly in her dirt sprint debut race. Tried the turf last time and didn’t disgrace herself.  Mott horses always improve with experience.
• 2 – Summer Forever – Toner tried her on the turf first out and she ran fairly evenly. Well-bred for the dirt.

Race 4     One of the two races remaining on the turf 

• 10 First Summation – has been off a year, but Clement is above average with this move. Nice steady series of works. If she is wound and ready, should be right there at the wire.
• 9 Super City – had a clear lead in her last after breaking slow and rushing to the front. Competitive figure and some useful intervening workouts.
• 8 Gu Gu Beans – heartbreaking sort has been running well since June but can’t crack the winner’s circle. Starting to get that look of a professional maiden but has the talent to win.
• 3 Joshans Giant – Has been running evenly but given her best race was a $40K maiden she may have trouble graduating at the MSW level.

Race 5    

Off the turf and both MTOs 5 Island Candy and 6 Kiss Cat are in. Island Candy is likely to be a big favorite.

• 8 Outer Orbit – back at the $25K level after trying ALW NW1X with no success last out a week ago. I like the quick return and I like the wire to wire capability. 
• 2 Under Scrutiny – stumbled at the start last out but prior to that was very game in winning a NW1X on the SAR lawn. Connections are not the best for a third of trainer Rodrigo Ubilo’s wins this year have come with this horse and jockey Arroyo up.
• 1 Chow Fun – last win came at BEL in June at this distance. Best pace figure in the field.
• 4 Ready’s Legend – Pletcher drops the horse in an effort to get a win. Was well enough thought of to be placed in stakes races but had no success there. Ran much better in last when dropped to $50K. If she’s going to win again, looks like this might be the level.

Race 6

• 4 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid – dropped her rider out of the gate last out but Nevin wheels her back so we can assume she came out of the race in good shape. More than 50% first and second in her career. Off her best she should beat this field.
• 2 Madre Ditutticapi – the mother of all bosses is 2 for 4 over the BEL main. Has been running consistent figures and switches back to Arroyo, last jockey to win on the horse. Should go off at attractive odds.
• 1 Bobby Jo – riding a three race winning streak for three different trainers. No reason to expect she won’t run another good one.
• 6 La Belle Valeria – the best speed in the race. She’s been a little short in the stretch but should be winging on the lead again.

Race 7

• 2 Blue Pigeon – 9-5 on the ML and looks like it on paper. Clement trainee was unlucky not to win either of his last two. His poorest start came in a graded stakes event a year ago. Clement is 31% route to sprint, although to be fair the BEL miles on the turf are still only one turn.
• 3 Archer Hill – just missed last time out. Definitely has possibilities.
• 4 Hooked Forever – the 1 for 24 record has to make him a low win prospect, but he has 9 place and show finishes which makes him a good prospect to be part of the exotics.
• 6 Saltine Warrior – has been heartless with longer distances, but is 5 of 6 in the money at BEL.

Race 8

• 2 Three Alarm Fire – Broke his maiden in impressive fashion last out for Albertrani. Should have no trouble with the mile and a sixteenth distance.
• 4 Lawmaker – takes the blinkers off for Pletcher and he is 33% with that move. Trained by Chad Brown up until March and he thought enough of the horse to start him in the Grade 2 Jerome. Hasn’t been proven on the BEL main, but definitely a quality horse.
• 1 Encryption – ran well in an ALW NW1X at BEL last out. Prior race was the Haskell and he was well over his head there. Graded stakes placed and powerful pace figures.

Race 9

Off the turf but no MTOs in the field.

• 2 Classic Aussie – finished with interest after going wide around the turn. Nice work between races. Orseno is not having a good year and has not had a second out winner yet, but Classic Aussie may break that string.
• 9 Summersault – Lots of traffic trouble in her debut bit still managed to finish within three lengths of the winner. Like her chances today.
• 1 Jadam – steady close in her debut, the same race as Summersault.  Given the pace, the small close is more impressive. Will need a good ride not to get buried on the rail.
• 10 Sky Fortune – puts the blinkers on for Jeremiah Englehart. Showed some early interest last out but has a couple of nice workouts since that race.

It was a great day of racing yesterday capped by the impressive win by Tonalist in the JCGC. Today features the two year old turf races that will define the main BC contenders.

Race 1

• 7 Delta Outlaw – puts the blinkers on for Weaver and gets a rider switch to Franco. Ran evenly around the track last time at MTH and improvement can be expected.
• 3 Prima Storm – Clement trainee has a nice series of works for this one and gets the services of Rosario. Clement always dangerous with first time turfers.
• 2 Battle Red – has shown a lot of speed and has the highest figures of any of the starters, but you have to question his heart in the stretch. No surprise if he wins, but no odds either.
• 8 A Lot – Second time starter for Mott and we all know Mott is ineffective with first timers. Didn’t break well in his last, showed mild interest while wide of horses and was ridden out. Could be any kind at this point.

Race 2

• 5 Alexa’s Spirit – First start was in a state bred stakes at FL. Ran evenly in that one after breaking poorly. Very  nice gate work at KEE a week ago. Looks much speedier than the first race would suggest and should revel in the one turn mile.
• 3 Persuasive Devil – caught two sloppy tracks in his starts at SAR and although he is bred well for a wet track couldn’t find the winners circle. The added distance today should help.
• 2 Interior Secretary – Monster work nine days ago, although Mineshaft’s are not noted for precociousness. Could be the one to catch.

Race 3

• 5 Buy Or Steal – First out in February at GP was a good one. Drops to a lower claiming price and gets top turf rider Ortiz today.
• 4 Acrostic – Six starts already but the last was the best. Low profile trainer has had success this meet at BEL
• 6 Veronica Bay – Eleven time starter seems a low probability to crack the win column but could be part of the exotics.

Race 4 

• 3 Awakino Cat – Hard-knocking nine year old always gives a good effort. Runs well at BEL and does have a close second at the 7F distance. In a race where it looks wide open, we’ll try to get some odds.
• 7 Mish Mosh – has never been the 7F trip and shows no BEL races, but has good tactical speed and gets a big boost from the claim by Jacobson last out.
• 4 Tigah – was racing with better at DMR and takes the blinkers off today. Last race was over at the start and he gets another chance today
• 2 Thomas Hill – 0 for 9 this year and only one win in the last two years. But he was claimed by Bruce Brown last out and we’ll give him some of the benefit of the doubt and look for him in the back holes.

Race 5

• 1 Abilio – In what I thought was an odd move Jacobson scratched the 1a Le Deluge but left Abilio in. Abilio looks more like a turf horse, although he does have a win on the dirt. Jacobson is 28% with that turf to dirt move. Will go off greater than the 2-1 ML.
• 6 Summit County – Ran a poor race after getting re-claimed by Englehart for $15K two back. Maragh will be off al his mounts today and is replaced here by the always unpredictable Louis Saez. Has a shot at some odds, but certainly not a horse (or race) to empty your pockets.
• 8 Stephan A – threw in the towel in his last at SAR but before that was running competitively for a slightly higher price at BEL. You don’t see Zito too often at this level. He may be looking for a win and the loss of the horse.

Race 6

• 3 Broadway Bay – broke his maiden for Bruce Brown in the SAR mud and came back at BEL 18 days ago with a decent after after having to go wide coming out of the turn. Castellano stays and that is a good sign
• 2 Jesses Giant Dunk – Trained by Abigail Adsit after being claimed for $16K two back. Last race was at this level and was respectable. Has some nice workouts since then. Gets a good switch from Taylor Rice to Johnny V. Adsit 5 for 8 in the money at BEL this fall
• 7 Gridley Here – ran poorly on the turf last out but the race prior gave the winner all he could handle at 1 1/8 on the dirt. McPeek decided to give him another chance to get it done.
• 9 Futurazo – eight year old gelding having a good year in 2014 with 3 wins in 8 starts. Has won at BEL previously

Race 7    Miss Grillo     Grade 3    2-1-10-3

• 1 Tammy the Torpedo – best last race pace figure. Beat nice field after having to swing wide in the stretch. Chad Brown is the king of the 2 year old turf. Rosario stays up.
• 2 Ancient Goddess – third in the P G Johnson, the main SAR prep for this race. Almost certainly shipped from Europe to acclimate and prep for the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. I’m looking for a big jump up in her second race stateside.
• 1a Greywalls – takes the blinkers off and looks to crack the winner’s ranks. Ran well last out and with her stablemate makes a formidable coupling.
• 3 Skinner Box – comes out of the Natalma at WO. This is always a powerful prep for the BC. In that race she broke in and bumped with rivals but still finished with good run. Ran much better on the firm turf and gets that back today. Ortiz jumps back aboard for Violette.
• 4 Lady Bling – beat a nice group of state-bred fillies last out but looks perhaps overmatched today.
• 5 Titanium Jo – hasn’t been on the turf yet but is bred well-enough for it. Would be a surprise for me.
• 6 Nicky’s Brown Miss – won a stakes at KD and ran well in the Colleen at MTH. Not completely hopeless.
• 7 Margaret Reay – another looking for her maiden win. Obviously liked the turf better than the dirt. Another that doesn’t figure on top but could improve.
• 8 Amazing Anne – raced a good one on the turf at SAR although the pace looks a bit slow. Probably up against it here.
• 9 Lady Eli – Chad Brown runner was the narrowest of winners at SAR. You can’t eliminate any Chad Brown runner, but you can’t bet every horse.
• 10 Partisan Politics – winner of the P G Johnson at SAR and that makes her one of the top contenders.
• 11 My Cara Mia – Sprint winner opening week at BEL. Looks up against it from the far outside post, but is not without possibilities.

Race 8

• 10 Quick Money – 7 year old gelding still getting it done. Last race was in over his head, but drops to the proper level today.
• 3 Effinex – place finisher in the Albany. Jimmy Jerkens picked up the horse from low profile trainer and is looking to crack the winner’s circle at BEL for the fall.
• 4 Onecats Chance – has been nothing but steady since June although he seems to prefer finishing second. Solid in the money play.
• 7 Petrocelli and 9 Goodtolook look like they will hook up in a speed dual and I’m not sure either of them lasts the mile.

Race 9    Pilgrim     Grade 3     2-5-8

• 1 Vision Perfect – Donk runner in a lot tougher than his maiden win, but like all of these is eligible to improve by leaps each start.
• 2 Startup Nation – looked very powerful winning the With Anticipation at SAR
• 3 Face the Music – Another that is not without chances but has been beaten by Strong Coffee already
• 4 Imperia – second in his maiden race to Face the Music. Probably an also ran today.
• 5 Offering Plan – another Chad Brown runner, and a lot of them look exactly like this horse. Track early and explode in the stretch. Definite contender.
• 6 All I Karabout – ships in from lesser circuit. You have to give the trainer credit for taking a chance but this doesn’t look like the spot where he’ll thrive
• 7 Nutty Futty – third in the With Anticipation but no match for the winner. Not likely to turn that around today.
• 8 Strong Coffee – gets Lasix today and that may be the ticket.
• 9 Artie’s Flight – looks like the longest shot in the race.

Race 10

• 9 Freudex – ran a good one at AQU in Apr, but then took a pause for what was either an injury or an “equipment change.” Englehart has been training him regularly for his return.
• 10 Readyheartandsoul – five start maiden not really getting better but not getting worse either. Has the figures to compete with this field
• 5 Wildniteattheopera – Ran well in the mud at SAR. Cuts back half a furlong. Should be competitive.
• 6 McQauid – first timer for Violette has been working well and the Violette/Franco combo is hitting at 21%

It’s the big Saturday at Belmont. Lots of races and lots of opportunities.

Race 1

• 2/2b Tradesman/Zennor – Albertrani lately has been bringing his charges ready to race first out. Zennor has one sneaky good race and went off as the favorite in that one. McLaughlin much better second time out.
• 7 Midhmaar – has been working well for Chad Brown. Tapit progeny tend toward the precocious.
• 3 Easy Comparison – has had two chances to break his maiden. Last race was his best. Pace was slow early and he couldn’t keep up with the fast finish but experience counts.
• 10 Moon Over Cuzco – the other Brown trainee has been working just as well and is listed 12-1 on the ML. Not often a Brown trainee goes off double digits.

Race 2

• 5 Noble Cornerstone – Looked very good in state bred races, but was never a danger in the Kings Bishop. Certainly fast enough to win this race.
• 6 Chapman – Englehart trainee came off a three month layoff and just missed after having trouble at the start. Should be prompting the early pace.
• 8 Round – Broke his maiden at BEL in June after giving Wicked Strong a run in his first start on a sloppy BEL track. Improving each out and Mott should have him wound up today.
• 2 John’s Island – Useful NY bred might be a little over his head today but James Jerkens has been dangerous with everything he starts. Last out he was bothered at the start  and was forced wide around the turn.

Race 3

• 5 Vespers At Eight – trouble at the start last out but finished with good energy. Better break should put him in the mix.
• 6 Gustnado – ran wide in the same race as the 5 and 7, took the lead in the stretch and couldn’t hang on. Could be the pacesetter and may have an easier time getting a good spot.
• 7 Congrats to Ken – Just missed last out. Weaver/Velasquez winning about a quarter of their starts. Two good maintenance works to keep him on edge.
• 3 King of New York – two starts, two seconds but both wide races. Has some early lick and may run a much more efficient race.

Race 4     Kelso Grade 2

• 1 Capo Bastone – one of the also rans in two graded stakes at SAR, although he closed well from dead last to finish within five lengths. Last graded win came over a year ago and has never won at this distance. Hard to like here.
• 2 Golden Ticket – won his last at this distance, and has never finished worse that second at a mile. Can’t be completely discounted but probably not the highest probability win horse.
• 3 Vyjack – Seems more adept at the sprint distances – his one win his year came at 7F. Would be a surprise from my perspective.
• 4 River Rocks – speedy runner has been dominating cheaper. Hasn’t been the mile distance but does have a second at the mile and a 16th. Likes to win and has some outstanding figures. It looks like any horse that wants to win will have to run by him in the stretch.
• 5 Bradester – His last six starts have been graded stakes and he has two wins, two places. Does well at the mile distance. Very consistent figures in his last three. He no worse than second best in this spot.
• 6 Scarly Charly – five year old just broke his maiden in March and came back two races later to win his NW1X. Seems up against it in this field and until he shows he’s graded material I’ll pass.
• 7 Itsmyluckyday – classy four year old has speed and staying power. Best figures in the group. Will be a low price, but it doesn’t look like there is a better horse in here.

Race 5     Beldame Invitational   Grade 1

• 1 Endless Chatter – is a quality animal but is not a Grade 1 horse. May be part of the early pace.
• 2 Toasting – Plenty of graded stakes in her pp’s, but no wins. Did win the overnight Sky Beauty at Belmont three weeks ago, but would be a surprise if she was in front at the wire today.
• 3 Stopchargingmaria – Nothing but graded races for this Pletcher trainee, but hasn’t gone against older yet. Ducked the top 3 year old filly Untapable, passing the Cotillion for this spot. Pletcher is being very strategic with the horse as they get ready for the Breeder’s Cup. Her figures are competitive but not dominant. The lukewarm favorite in my mind.
• 4 Stanwyk – Two muddy tracks at SAR and that probably kept us from seeing the best of her. Has a graded win at BEL and hasn’t run a bad race this year. Will give the 3 all she can handle.
• 5 Fiftyshadesofhay – Baffert runner is another getting ready for the BC. Has been a shade or fifty below the best graded fillies. One win on the BEL surface. Unlikely to win but should be in the mix in the stretch.
• 6 Oasis at Midnight – doesn’t look good enough to have a say here.
• 7  Belle Gallantey – Did win a Grade 1 at DEL but was pounded in the Personal Ensign. Competitive figures, but seems a cut below the 3 and 4.

Race 6

• 11 Tetradrachm – Mott trainee has the best last race figure, plenty of speed and takes the blinkers off today.
• 2 Escapist – broke his maiden at GP and immediately followed that up with a NW1X at BEL. Good speed and should appreciate the return to BEL.
• 3 Compliance Officer – hard knocking eight year old had excuses in his last two but before that looked good at BEL. Will need a deft ride to run by them all here.
• 4 Great Attack – claimed last out by Jacobson and he is just lights out first off the claim.
• 1 Shock Leader – has better races at a mile and perhaps cutting back from longer routes will bring out the best in him.

Race 7     Flower Bowl    Grade 1

• 1 Abaco – winner of the Ballston Spa at the SAR meet and finished a length behind Stephanie’s Kitten in the slow paced Diana. Never seems to run a bad one. In the money choice.
• 2 Maximova – Not a grade 1 horse.
• 3 Viva Rafaela – has every opportunity to set comfortable fractions and hold off the closers. Pletcher is always super dangerous in Graded stakes. Have to play her on top at the odds.
• 4 Strathnaver – Another that is always competitive. Wouldn’t be an enormous surpise, but looks fourth best to me.
• 5 Starstruck – Won the Grade 3 Matchmaker at MTH, but obviously likes that surface. A minor award at best.
• 6 Whatsdachances – another of the runners that seems to be on the edge of Grade 1. More like to be in the money than a winner.
• 7 Alterite – has really not shown her potential this year. Two 2014 races were discouraging, compared to 2013 when she was a length behind at the wire in the BC F&M Turf. Unless Brown did something to turn her around, it doesn’t look like she is in condition to win.
• 8 Tannery – did have a second earlier this year at BEL but her last two Grade 1 runs have not been inspiring. Not likely.
• 9 Stephanie’s Kitten – will inevitably be flying at the end and it is just a question of what fractions she has to run at. Shouldn’t be worse than second.

Race 8     Vosburgh Invitational    Grade 1

• 1 Palace – Perhaps the best sprinter on the east coast. Three wins in five starts at BEL. Should be the favorite and looks like the winner.
• 2 Coup de Grace – has not yet faced older but has been strong against three year olds. I’m looking elsewhere.
• 3 Zee Bros – Plenty of speed but doesn’t look like he can hold off the pressers and closers.
• 4 Salutos Amigos – not a grade 1 horse
• 5 Dads Caps – ran well in the slop at SAR but looks up against it here. In the money at best
• 6 Happy My Way – speed, speed and speed for this gelding. Probably the best of the front runners but may be compromised by the cheaper speed. Place/show prospect for me.
• 7 Private Zone – First out of 2014 was a troubled sprint on the turf at Parx. Won this race last year so can’t be discounted. Should be wound up to run today. Place/show prospect for me.
• 8 Ribo Bibo – a nice horse but not a Grade 1 runner

Race 9     Hirsch Classic    Grade 1

• 2 Twilight Eclipse – has been beaten by Main Sequence in his last two, no reason to expect a different result today. Likes the BEL turf and at his best can be competitive with these.
• 3 Imagining – Just missed in the Sword Dancer and won the Man O’War in the spring at BEL. Looks second best to me.
• 4 Hangover Kid – has the win in the Bowling Green in his favor, and is three of six at BEL. Big odds, but certainly can’t be thrown out completely.
• 1 Big Blue Kitten – Starting to regain 2013 form. You can never discount a horse that has won half its starts. I think he has to be used.
• 1a Real Solution – Did not disgrace himself in the Arlington Million. Makes the entry super tough.
• 5 Main Sequence – Group placed in Europe and two for two here in the U.S. Both his wins were highly impressive. Lasix seemed to be exactly what this horse needed. On his best he is the winner.
• 6 Medal Count – Has been running in graded events this year with moderate success. Hasn’t faced older yet. A first and a second on the turf. Definitely the X factor here. Improving three year olds are always dangerous. While he doesn’t look like the winner on paper, if he is first at the wire don’t be surprised.

Race 10     Jockey Club Gold Cup     Grade 1

• 1 Micromanage – Not having a bad 2014, but looks a step or two below the best in here.
• 2 Last Gunfighter – has not looked like a grade 1 horse this year. Chad Brown is always dangerous, but I think you have to look elsewhere.
• 3 Wicked Strong – Ran well enough to win the Travers and is just one of the strong three year old crop going to the BC Classic. Perhaps not the top choice, but definitely one of the horses to beat.
• 4 Zivo – Looked strong in the middle of the year, but didn’t run particularly well in the Woodward. Not in my top three.
• 5 Prayer for Relief – 0 for 8 this year. Not likely in this field.
• 6 Long River – has not had a bang-up four year old season. Not a contender.
• 7 Speak Logistics – Unlikeliest of them all
• 8 Tonalist – This colt has done nothing wrong this year. Although he hasn’t faced older, has plenty of talent and has to be put in the top three.
• 9 Stephanoatsee – Another that simply doesn’t look good enough to crack the board.
• 10 V.E. Day – Surprise winner of the Travers is simply at the top of his game. He’s won on the BEL surface and had a good tightening workout five days ago. No reason to expect he won’t run as well as he did last time.
• 11 Moreno – Runs to the front and is hard to catch. May be compromised by Big Cazanova, but don’t mistake this horse for a heartless speed horse. He is fast and can finish. Perhaps today he is just a bit short.
• 12 Big Cazanova – Seriously? It seems like the only purpose this horse has is to compromise Moreno’s chance.

Race 11

• 4 Grand Rapport – Jacobson trainee hasn’t run a bad race this year. Has the figures and should have no issue with the distance.
• 5 Belisarius – as is typical of horses coming under Mott’s care, they often race to their top form. Had a difficult run the last time. Was wide around the turns, had to drop back on the backstretch and make a huge run in the stretch. Puts the shades on today and Rosario returns as the pilot.
• 6 Capitan Futuro – didn’t do a lot last out on the BEL turf but that was at a higher price. Should be far more competitive at this level.
• 3 Innovation Economy – Lightly raced three year old makes his second start of 2014 and his first against older horses. Improvement today makes him a dangerous player.

Not a bad day yesterday. I selected five winners on top including $23 horse Chasin Chama in the nightcap. We’ll try to keep it going today.

Update: It has been raining steadily at BEL and all the races are off the turf. As you can see, many of the original selections have been scratched and I’ll probably be passing on most of the card since my selections were made for fast and firm.

Race 1

A poor race just got a little poorer. 5 Heidi’s Holiday has a win in seven starts on a wet track so could be thrown into the mix.

• 3 Vinhdication Spot – has been off since mid-July. Early speed sort had seriously lost condition and the rest undoubtedly will do her well. Given there is no other real front-running sort in the race, she should be able to control her destiny. Seven pound bug Jean Pierre Vallellanes makes his BEL debut 
• 6 Wisdom of Oz – Obviously didn’t fare well at SAR but won her last start at BEL. Dropping down the class ladder to where she belongs.
• 4 Marcy – seems to be better on the dirt than on the turf. Rudy Rodriguez takes over from low percentage trainer Gabriel Goodwin and he is 27% with new charges. Better figures than the field on the dirt. If Rodriguez has her cranked, she is the danger.

Race 2 

No MTOs in this off the turf race. 4 Kelly’s Prize probably becomes the front runner and does have a third on a wet track.

• 7 Wine Burglar – Moves from Chad Brown to Rudy Rodriguez who is a high percentage first off the claim. A win and a place in four turf starts at BEL.
• 2 Zafiro Azul – another that likes the BEL turf. 1 for 3 with a place negotiating this distance. Taylor Rice has had the best success with her and returns today. 
• 3 Too Good to B True – Bob Dunham takes over for Phil Gleaves on runner that has been racing in Florida. Has competitive figures.
• 6 Flirtatious Spring – 1 for 19 Linda Rice trainee not as likely for win as somewhere in the money.

Race 3 

• 4 Canal Six – Broke her maiden in November at AQU, was on the shelf until the SAR meet. First race on a muddy track not a sparkling effort, but ran respectably in the Fleet Indian. Third off the layoff looks like a charm.
• 5 Annie Walker – Speedy filly ran lights out to break her maiden at BEL at today’s distance. Should be the controlling speed here.
• 7 Jcs American Dream – had a good second to Accomplish First at BEL in June but  was unimpressive in two state-bred stakes at SAR. Plodder looks to turn the tables back at BEL.

Race 4

• 6 In Spite of Mama – showed some speed in debut on the dirt. Lost all chance at the break when bumped hard, didn’t appear to care for the turf, back at dirt today. Puts blinkers on; should help her focus.
• 3 Raiza Sultana – bred for the distance and the dirt. Has been well bet in her two starts. Has been working well since her last start.
• 5 Building Permit – Rare Chad Brown trainee that looked mediocre in her first start in the same race as Raiza Sultana. Has been working like Brown is serious about making her comeback a successful one.

Race 5

• 5 Overthespeedlimit – first-timer for Anthony Dutrow has been working steadily for debut. Dutrow fair with first starters, a little better with MCL debut horses.
• 3 Oh Poggibonsi – first-timer for Englehart. Tiz Wonderful progeny win at a fairly high percentage first start and trainer has high ROI with MCL debuts.
• 2 Special Invitation – ran poorly in his debut race, but should have things figured out today. Rudy Rodriguez fair with short layoff horses, better with MCL.

Race 6

Three horses are left in this race including the two MROs 3 Ginny’s Grey and 4 My Place.

• 6 Flamingo Lane – Adsit trainee five wins in her last seven starts. 2 for 2 on the BEL turf. Has been masterfully handled and all systems look go.
• 1 Edie – Two wins in her last two starts at BEL. Castellano goes over to One Penny Place but Maragh a good substitute.
• 7 Scenario Analysis – Competitive figures. Second off the claim for Mike Maker. Expecting an improved performance today.
• 2 Indian Starlight – beat Edie and Scenario Analysis in her last at SAR but 0 for 5 on the BEL turf. Has some talent and wouldn’t be a surprise.

Race 7

• 5 Shore Runner – three seconds in three tries at BEL. Been claimed both times in last two outs. Consistent and just needs to show a little more heart.
• 7 Sandy’z Slew – another that seems to like the BEL turf. Plenty of tactical speed .
• 4 Shatak – One start at SAR of a seven month layoff. Should be improved second start and with the turnback in distance.
• 8 Bluegrass Springs – 2 of 6 on the BEL turf. Plodder that should be closing in stretch. Claimed last out by Assmussen and we’ll see if he changes tactics. Not a lot of pace to set it up, so may be up against it.

Race 8 

MTOs One More Chief and Stalagmite are likely to be the horses that get bet. One More Chief probably the better of the two. Wake Up in Malibu has a win on the muddy BEL track.

• 11 Latigo Trail – hard trying front runner gets a slight nod in a very competitive race. Took 7 tries to break his maiden but came back with a good race in his NW1X. Will run and hope he doesn’t get caught this time.
• 3 Saltine Warrior – runs his best at BEL where he has five in the money finishes in six starts.
• 6 Ogermeister – Beaten by the very tough Billy the Bull last out. Has placed in state-bred stakes and this is as good a spot as any to try to pick up a win.
• 1 Wake Up in Malibu – Weaver trainee finished second in his only try at this distance on the BEL turf. Didn’t negotiate the distance last out at SAR and the turnback should help today.

Race 9

The MTOs are Invasion Point and Hidden Warrior and both are likely to be bet heavily. Hidden Warrior has the best one race figure.

• 8 Manoffire – shortens up today after fading at a mile and a sixteenth. Drops into MCL also.
• 9 New Dude – first back off the claim by Barker in April. Adds blinkers.
• 7 Leatherhead Lurie – Another that seems to need a shorter distance to be successful. 
• 2 Junger – 11 starts with only one second but that was at BEL. Has speed and may hold on for a piece.