Another card washed off the turf on a sloppy main track. But, as yesterday showed, there will be opportunities.

Race 1

• 7 Piscesbymoonlight – has a high wet track rating, but has only a win and a second on a wet track. He has good early speed, and although he’s  been a little heartless in the stretch, the slight class drop could be enough to propel him to the wire.
• 5 Wellington Wizard – never been on a wet track but has enormous wet track breeding. Dutrow has been a little snake-bit at BEL but has a big shot here.
• 2 Call Wil – won his only race taken off the turf at TAM, although the track was listed as fast. Klesaris/Arroyo has been hitting at 25%.

Race 2

• 1 Gypsum Johnny – drops from MSW into the claiming ranks. Didn’t break quickly enough in his last, but did show some interest in his maiden race in the slop.
• 7 Igotthediscoinme – was coming well and fell only half a length short in his first race. Was bet in that race and that is a positive sign.
• 4 Jacapo – Hushion trainee didn’t get out last time and raced wide around the track. Drops from MSW to MCL this race. Good wet track rating.

Race 3

• 3 Genre – Pletcher trainee has been working steadily for debut. 8-1 ML on a Pletcher horse is odd, but enough positives to put her on top.
• 8 Sierra Olivia – ran well in the mud last out for Pletcher. Monster wet track rating. Improvement here could get the win.
• 5 Profess – another Mott trainee. Didn’t look great in the slop first out at MTH, improved a ton on the turf second time. Mott moved her back to the dirt and didn’t scratch in the slop.
• 7 Summer House – showed speed last out in the mud but faded badly in the stretch. Great wet track rating and some very nice works leading up to this.

Race 4

• 4 Golden Itiz – actually has no races on a wet track and is 0 for 10 this year, but his last four races have been on the turf, a surface he actually has had no success on. He’s done ok on the BEL dirt and has a good wet track rating. Upset possibility
• 8 Joan’s Choice – has one win in six tries on the wet track. David Jacobson trainee ran a dull race in the mud last out, but has been fairly steady this year. Probably not value at 2-1, but has good chances.
• 3 Conspiracy – a third in two wet track races. Contessa claimed him for $25K two back, jumped him up and brings him back down today. Like the move.
• 1 Sacred Ground – one of the other MTOs that looks good. 8 of 12 in the money on a wet track gives his good outs here.

Race 5

• 2 Inaflash – easily wired a $12500 field last out and switched barns to Neal Terraciano, a very low profile trainer. Not a bad wet track record, 7-1-2-1. Fast work two weeks ago, and a good work right before that.
• 6 Coast of Sangria – claimed last out by Sydney Dutrow. Has a wet track win.
• 8 Rettalfa – David Cannizzo claimed her last out and moves her up in price slightly. Has been consistent this year as a 4 year old.

Race 6

• 7 My Super Nova – second in her maiden debut, came back in a state-bred stakes in the mud and ran second. Nice wet track rating.  Looks very strong here.
• 8 First Service – raced wide around the track in her last and gave it up in the stretch. Mike Hushion has been hot lately. Has a monster wet track rating.
• 11 Hush Now – Made a nice improvement in her second start and cuts back in distance today. Live longshot
• 10 Barrel of Dreams – first timer for Hertler has been working well. Should like a wet track.

Race 7

• 2 Encryption – From the Haskell to an OC$75. Seems to have trouble cracking the winner’s circle but has the best figures in the race. Have to use him.
• 12 Againsome – 2 seconds in 2 tries on a wet track. Has been consistent this year and looks well suited for the mile.
• 13 Jigsaw – won in the slop last out and was claimed by Linda Rice. He looks a step below Encryption, but the slop has a way of equalizing.
• 4 Roman Approval – a win and three seconds on a wet track. Castellano/Maker 29%

Race 8

• 1 Goodtolook – is much more suited to the 1 1/16 mile distance. Contessa gave him a couple of months off and brought him back with steady breezes. 2 for 6 wins on the wet track. 10-1 ML is an attractive price.
• 8 Gridley Here – won last out at BEL after switching from the turf. Has run much better on the dirt, looks to be in great shape, and Rosario sticks with him.
• 10 Cousin Michael – consistent over the spring and summer. Jacobson gave the horse two months off and jumps him up a grade. 4 for 4 in the money on the wet track, although no wins. Seems to be hard-trying every time out.
• 3 Saturday Appeal – Lots of second place finishes, but is 2 for 6 winning on a wet track. Should be somewhere in the mix.

Race 9

• 14 Maura’s Pass – has been turfing but improved a lot when dropped to MCL. Actually didn’t run horribly in her dirt debut.
• 16 Roman Reign – Ran a good one in the slop last out. Seems better suited for the dirt. Off only a week, but being an old-school guy I don’t mind this trainer move.
• 10 Ainteasybeinggreen – was off a year, came out three weeks ago and set the pace the the stretch. Speed isn’t her problem – stamina is – but perhaps the drop from MSW helps.
• 5 Lil’ Zilla –  nothing but turf to this point, but she has been close in a few tries. Has decent figures and that may be enough for her to get a piece.

Races are off the turf today so lots of scratches

Race1

• 4 Quarla – second on a wet track last out to Untiltherwasyou. Claimed by Jimmy Klesaris and wheeled back at the same price after two months on the shelf.
• 7 Time For Harlan – Drops back to the $40K level where she just missed at a mile on the turf
• 6 P J’s Enigma – Most of her starts have been on the dirt at MTH. Has decent turf breeding
• 8 Path to Power – puts the blinkers on. Has a strong set of works after being off for close to two months

Race 2

• 4 Lady Doris – gets in as an MTO for Abby Adsit. Has a third on a wet track
• 8 Bartiromo – drops down in search of a win. One uninspiring dirt race, but has good figures
• 9 Queenofzeenile – Moves up slightly after winning last out. Very high wet track rating
• 3 Eurokay by Me – surprise winner last time. I don’t expect a win this time, but she does have a tendency to finish in the money

Race 3 (in-depth analysis race of the day)    6-1-2-3

• 1 Ziggy Moondust – Looked like a winner at 7F in the mud but hit a wall in the stretch. A month between workouts is not a good sign, but given the drop in price and the wet track he’s got a shot. Looks like a delicate horse with physical issues, but at least Cornelio stays.
• 2 Shinnecock Bay – Mostly a turf runner but did have a third on the dirt at SAR after a troubled trip. Could be part of the exacta
• 3 Keen’s Cupla – Mediocre races on the dirt. Had a troubled trip last out and could improve.
• 4 Miroc – Scratched
• 5 Greg’s Fourwheeler – not much to recommend unless the blinkers made a big imprivement
• 6 Man of Mystery – Has a number of positives. Very high wet track rating, high rating at the distance, was only a length and a quarter back in his debut, and has some nice workouts leading up to this race. If he goes off anywhere near his ML, load up.
• 7 Flat Leaver – Not much of a debut on the dirt and not much better on the turf. Very high wet track rating though, and with Husion could surprise.

Race 4

• 4 Bossy Saratoga – Looks much better on the dirt than she did on the poly. Has good tactical speed and a good wet track rating.
• 6 Wraith – one win in 10 starts and three seconds in a row. Extraordinary wet track rating, although she only has a third in two wet track starts.
• 1 Prize Taker – hasn’t shown a lot of heart in the stretch but seems to like finishing up close. Long hiatus and Charlton Baker is 29% off long layoffs. Two thirds in four starts at BEL.
• 3 Lovely Elle – Broke her maiden last out at Parx but didn’t look bad first time at SAR. Allen Iwinski used to be a major force as a trainer but has cut back alot in the last few years. Very high wet track rating.

Race 5

• 9 Political Farce – freaked in the mud last time to break an 0 for 15 skein. If he likes the slop that much perhaps he keeps the streak going today
• 5 Grand Strand – Tried NW1X last out but drops to a $40K event and gets in as an MTO. Claimed by the hot Rudy Rodriguez two back. Good wet track rating.
• 1a Perfect Stormy – one win on a race washed off the turf. Lots of starts, doesn’t appear to be a win type.
• 11 King Gettigan – one of the other MTO’s. Won last out, and maybe that helped him turn a corner.

Race 6

• 7 Caleb’s a Survivor – Good figures at FL and at 15-1 he’ll be the longshot play of the day.
• 3 Futurazo – hard-knowcking 8 year old showed well at BEL last out. In fact, is 4 of 6 in the money at BEL and 3 for 9 this year. Has a few useful races in the slop.
• 4 Wildniteattheopera – third lifetime start with a win and a second already. Hennig has been hot lately.
• 8 One More Chief – finished well in the mud last out at BEL. A win and a third in three starts on the wet track. Englehart seems to have improved the horse substantially after the claim two back.

Race 7

• 9 Glacken’s Gift – MTO looked good breaking her maiden after a year on the shelf. Lots of tactical speed and a big figure last out. Big wet track rating.
• 2 Love and Marriage – Chad Brown leaves her in on the off track. Perhaps it is the exceptional off-track rating. No surprise if she wins.
• 13 Get Gorgeous – Second on a sloppy BEL track last out and 3 of 5 in the money on wet tracks lifetime.
• 4 Medaglia D’Argento – in as an MTO. Perhaps a step below the best in here, but still can grab a small piece

Race 8

• 4 The Rhythmisright – 3 thirds in three tries on a wet track. Hushion trainee has been doing most of his running at this level. Like the ML odds.
• 1 Cuantos – Getting through his conditions in good order. Good work 3 weeks ago. Nice speed, but not a need to lead sort. We’ll see if he likes the slop.
• 9 Sol The Feud – good figures in his last two starts. Place right at OC$40K
• 8 Half Nelson – seems to like finishing second and third but does have the tactical speed to make a race of it.

Race 9

• 9 Queen to Be – Hasn’t fared so well with the big boys but has been tough at PEN. Drops down to a level where she should be competitive. Pletcher/Castellano is always dangerous.
• 10 Tacones – one for two on the wet surface. Switches barns to Bernardo Callejas
• 2 Manhattan Gin – usually shows speed and on a wet track that can be dangerous.

Race 1

• 2 N.F.’s Destiny – was claimed by David Jacobson for $20K in September. He raced the horse back at the $20K level, but in open company, and he faded mildly in the last furlong. The trainer chops the claiming price in half today. The last race he won was at $10K and perhaps Jacobson thought the horse was better than that when he claimed him but now knows better. His pace figures dominate the field, but you’ll be lucky to get the 2-1 ML.
• 4 Socialsaul – was claimed by Jacobson for $16K last out and gets dropped today. His last race was difficult – he was bounced around at the start, dropped all the way back to last, but closed decently. Has 3 wins in 10 starts at BEL. Looks like Jacobson has his bases covered this race.
• 6 Awakino Cat – mainly a turf horse but is 2 for 3 on the fast dirt. He was eased in his last race three weeks ago, and comes back at a fire sale price on a surface he usually doesn’t run on. The drop looks negative, and you might look for the addition of front wraps. We’ll see if he makes it to the starting gate. If he goes, he has the numbers to get into the race.
• 3 Ten Items Or Less – Horse generally runs like he is in the express lane. Ran lights out in his last three at FL, and has won over the BEL surface. If the droppers turn out to be negative, he might be the one that moves up.

Race 2

• 4 Collinito – Actually won a race at GP earlier this year but was DQ’d. Been off 8 months, has been working steadily if not remarkably for his return. Showed a lot of early foot in his last race,  and may have some competition up front today from the 7. Still, if he runs like he did at GP he’s a major threat.
• 8 Double Whammy – I might eventually get tired of saying, was claimed last out by Jacobson because it seems to happen so much. He grabbed the horse from Pletcher for $40K and brings him back at the same level, a typical Jacobson move. He seems to like claiming a horse and trying to get a purse and a sale pretty quickly. His SAR race showed a little bit of talent, certainly enough to top this field.
• 10 Pisco Bliss – Chad Brown trainee was off for a year before coming back a month ago at BEL. Despite the 5th place finish, he was only a length and a half from all the money on a pretty decent pace and time. Brown is having an excellent fall BEL meeting and about everything he puts on the track runs. If he improves off his last, he’s a major threat to take the big prize.
• 11 Cee No More – only has one turf start in four tries and that wasn’t a great race. Ran well in a race washed off the turf last out, but given his experience I’m giving him some minor consideration here.

Race 3

• 1 Andromeda’s Risk – Has been looking for a soft spot since breaking her maiden in Jan on the inner dirt at AQU. Her last two have been at this level, although this is her first try at a route, a move Bruce Brown is fair at. This field is a combined 7 for 123, so despite the fact that her last race wasn’t spectacular, she’s only had 7 starts and I’m looking for a winner in one of the horses that hasn’t settled into a NW2L career. Take this race analysis with that perspective in mind.
• 2 Pitched – another who only has 7 lifetime starts. Broke her maiden last out at Parx after being claimed by Gregg Matties. Does have a third on the BEL dirt in her career. Perhaps now that she has a win under her belt, she’ll find a groove.
• 6 Kate Is a Ten – although she is 1 for 22, she had three races on the turf before getting back on the dirt. She’s had an interesting career, 8 races on the fast dirt, 7 on the turf and 7 on a wet track. She’s not an inspiring win bet, but she does have the figures to find one of the back holes.
• 5 Lemon and Honey – is a 1 for 16 horse that actually has her win at the distance – in fact, she’s 5 for 5 in the money at the distance. Another that seems less probable to win than finish in the money.

Race 4

• 8 Confessa – Ran a nice maiden race at a mile and an eighth at SAR in July, came back on the turf at BEL and ran evenly after being wide around the turn and into the stretch. In fact, of the nine runners, six of them ran their last race on the turf. This is a weak field in my opinion, and that gives the horse a chance.
• 3 Manner of Speaking – hasn’t quite stretched to the mile, but has been in the mix at 7F. Switched trainers to Linda Rice last out after laying off close to a year, and I figure she gets a race to figure out how to get the most out of the horse. She thinks a mile on the dirt might be the answer, and we’ll see if she is right.
• 5 Piccolo Flats – has one race on the BEL dirt, but it was an off the turf event on a muddy surface. Still, that’s one of the better races on her resume. Gets a nice switch from Lanerie to Irad Ortiz and in a field where every horse has some negative, she may have fewer of those than positives.
• 4 Saharan Seranade – Is one of the horses that has primarily been raced on the dirt. Her races haven’t been horrible or outstanding – just sort of middling. We’ll see if the switch to Castellano makes a difference.

Race 5

• 8 Doukas – I’m laying even money that Imbriale pronounces it Doo-kas with a hard k instead of the French pronunciation of the composer of the Sorcerer’s Apprentice – Du-cah. Either way, the horse has two strong races, one at this distance. She’s got some early lick, which wasn’t really be advantageous on the grass Saturday, and she has the hot Rudy Rodriguez. Not a stickout, but a lot of positives.
• 10 Lox – too bad there isn’t a horse named Bagel running. That would make for a stirring stretch duel. First timer goes for Pletcher, and it looks like he isn’t done rolling out his quality two year old crop. This one goes for celebrity owner Bobby Flay, and I tend to think Flay is looking to start making some of the $140,000 purchase price back.  Steady series of works, and a really nice 59 and 1 on the turf two weeks ago.
• 2 Lucky Song – Goes for Chad Brown, the other trainer who is lights out with first time fillies on the turf. Looked like he was trying to get her ready for SAR, but had to wait until this spot. Snappy workout 6 days ago, good turf breeding, especially for the distance. Have to respect “Heckofajob” Brownie.
• 7 All in Fun – wasn’t totally ready to run first out at 6 furlongs on the BEL turf. McGaughey has been working the horse at the Fair Hill training center and she should come back better than first out. She wasn’t disgraced losing to My Cara Mia and Greywalls, both of which ran in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo.

Race 6

With the scratch of Summer Breezing I may throw in 5 Partly Mocha. He is a closing sprinter and can be given consideration in this field.

• 9 Summer Breezing – has been racing with slightly better, Laid off for close to 8 months before coming to SAR for a couple of 5 1/2 F turf sprints, He just missed in the first one, bounced a bit in the second and has been given 6 weeks to recover. Has the best figures and a nice string of workouts for the comeback.
• 7 Mish Mosh – Claimed by Jacobson, out of a win at this same level. He jumped the horse to $50K but bounces him back down today. Spends more time on synthetic and dirt surfaces, but does have 6 in the money finishes in eight attempts. Nice pressing style and good numbers.
• 2 Ziptronic – Should be the frontrunner. The Repole stable has given the horse to unknown trainer Bernardo Callejas after Bruce Levine coaxed three straight wins out of the horse. The trainer switch is interesting as is the move from NW1X to an open $40K. Likes the distance and likes the BEL turf.
• 3 Thomas Hill – more seconds and thirds than wins – in his last ten races has zero wins but has not finished finished worse than 4th by 6 lengths. Might make the exotics.

Race 7

• 1/1a Etiqutte/Treasure – I think Jimmy Jerkens is back and he has two good starters in this one. Etiquette is probably the stronger of the two entrants. Lost to Feathered but easily bested the rest of the field. Has a nice series of sharp workouts for this race. Treasure has two starts, both of which  looked good. Makes the entry that much more powerful.
• 7 Eloquent Tribute – was a close third in the race where Treasure finished second. Second best number of the horses that have started.
• 9 Overprepared – Pletcher traineee has a nice series of workouts for her debut. Good dirt breeding and should like the distance.
• 12 Zealous Wildcat – Michelle Nevin trainee will have to overcome an outside post. Like the workout pattern and the Ortiz/Nevin combo has hit at over 30%. Could be a factor with the right trip.

Race 8

My top three choices were scratched here. I’ll add 2 Live in Joy and the 1a Compliance Officer

• 6 Bashart – three straight graded stakes, the last one a strong second. Has not yet faced older, but has plenty of talent . Prepped nicely at Fair Hill. This is a a good spot for him to pass the test against older.
• 5 Inchcape – Has been stuck at this level for most of the year, but his last race was very encouraging. He cut back to a mile after running longer and just missed the win. Will have to get past Which Market, but I like his chances today.
• 11 Slim Shadey – Really hidden horse with a big chance. Last race was a stakes on the slop at a mile and five eighths, and before that were two long races. Perhaps those races will affect the horse if he tries to go with the speed in the race, but he has enough back class to rise above the field.
• 7 Middleburg – not a win machine; more of a place machine. Given he is in the mix close to the wire every time he could grab a piece.

Race 9      The Bowl Game     1-7-8-4

• 1 Slumber – Placed in graded stakes at GP his last two starts. Has a set of figures that dominates the field and is 4 for 7 at the distance. Very strong in this race.
• 2 Alakazan Alakazan – won last out at KD going wire to wire. Has some talent but not one I’ll focus on.
• 3 North Slope – Finally won a NW2X after 6 tries. Looks a little weaker than the best in this field. Minor award at best.
• 4 Micromanage – eased in the JCGC last out. Before that finished third in a Grade 3 at Parx and won the Birdstone at SAR. He’s been running with the best older handicap horses in NY and on his best day is the equal of any in here. Pletcher/Castellano a powerful duo.
• 5 Wealth – MTO
• 6 Grand Rapport – Good at the distance, but hasn’t beaten anything better than an OC $35K. Can’t get behind him.
• 7 Sky Blazer – had some outs in the Baruch while seven wide on the turn. In that race he was beaten by none other than Wise Dan, no shame on any horse’s resume. He looks like a contender to me.
• 8 St. Albans Boy – Has been running competitively all year but with lesser animals. Relegated to the back holes.

Race 10

• 5 Lady Kreesa – just missed last time out for David Donk and Irad Ortiz. Has been leaving her backers wanting for four races now. Has been bet down to favoritism each time and hasn’t managed better than a third. Don’t know how many more chances she gets.
• 3 Keen Katana – broke her maiden here in June, raced once at SAR and has been rested for six weeks. Good tactical speed. Lots of upside here.
• 6 G Note – hasn’t looked good on the soft going, but should get a firmer track today.  I’ll look for her to prove her value today.
• 2 Willow U – Last two races give her contender status. Seems to have trouble finding her way to the winner’s circle but this is not a strong field. Could be in the exotics.

Start spreading the news, it’s NY Breds day at Belmont. State-bred races are just like other races – value can be found.

Race 1

• 2 Tizquick – in a mediocre maiden field Tizquick has a lot of upside. He lost his first start to Upstart, a horse that subsequently won the Funny Cide and finished second in the Champagne. He’s showed improved speed in his two starts, including his last the Bertram Bongard stakes. He’s listed at 6-5 on the ML and I have no reason to expect he’ll be lower than that, but he does look strong in this spot. He switches from Alvarado to Rosario.
• 1/1a Black Tide/Fallfire – This Ralph D’Alessandro trained pair both have chances, although Fallfire looks to be the stronger of the two. Black Tide has had two starts on sloppy tracks, not showing much in either, and a start at a mile, a distance he doesn’t seem well suited for. He could be a lot better than we’ve seen. Fallfire lost to Good Luck Gus and Thank You and both horses are going in the Sleepy Hollow in the next race. He has been running at Finger Lakes, although I don’t see that as a negative. FL has some pretty fair state-bred races. He has a ton of speed and fading in stakes races isn’t of serious concern – he’s against better horses. It’s a strong combined duo.
• 5 Limerick Lightning – first time starter for Colum O’Brien with a nice series of morning drills. O’Brien has only 4 starts with firsters with no wins – in fact, he hasn’t recorded a winner in any of his six 2014 starts. Still, this one has enough positives and the field is mediocre enough to make him interesting.

Race 2     Sleepy Hollow     2-3-5

• 1 Thank You – couldn’t win in four MSW starts but did finish second in the NY Breeders Futurity at FL. Doesn’t get me excited.
• 2 Ostrolenka – won his maiden by 14 lengths at today’s distance in a nine horse field with a good final time after doing little on the slop in his first start. Pletcher trainee is listed at 6-5 on the ML and based on that powerful win he could dominate the field.
• 3 Bullheaded Boy – broke his maiden in the SAR slop at 5F and raced in two state-bred stakes. Puts the blinkers on for Pletcher. His main jock, Johnny V, decided to go with Ostrolenka so Jose Ortiz picks up the mount. He has chances, but I’m leaning in other directions.
• 4 Breakin the Fever – a winner by 10 lengths in his maiden on a sloppy BEL track.  Looks like the strategy will be to go to the front in which case he’ll have to outgun Good Luck Gus and Ostrolenka.  I’m not confident he’ll be that good.
• 5 Market Conduct – finished behind Bullhead Boy in the Bongard Stakes but does have the ability to be coming late. Has a chance in this race, especially if the 2, 4, and 7 knock each other out.
• 6 Bellamy Way – Finished second behind Ostolenka, but really didn’t finish powerfully in either of his starts. An outside shot in my opinion.
• 7 Good Luck Gus – Another that broke his maiden on a sloppy SAR track. He is not a need to lead sort, but he hasn’t gone the mile yet. Did beat Thank You in the the Breeder’s Futurity at FL. In a two year old race where horses have limited starts nothing that happens is a surprise. Still some things are more likely than others and I’ll admit he seems less likely a winner than the Pletcher horses.

Race 3     The Maid of the Mist      9-6-3-5

• 1 Hard to Stay Notgo – love the name, like the horse, although not as much as others. Broke her maiden on a fast SAR track and ran well in a state-bred stakes at six and a half furlongs. She was demolished (like evreryone) by Temper Mint Patty last out, and I’m not sure why I should think she might turn the tables today.
• 2 Lady Bling – broke poorly in the Miss Grillo, was really wide but ran evenly. Both her races have been on the turf; certainly can get the distance. I’m not taken with a plodding style, so I probably won’t have her on many tickets.
• 3 Dunn Listening – did break her maiden in a state-bred stakes at FL, but had trouble at the start in her follow up in the Breeder’s Futurity, a race won by the aforementioned Good Luck Gus. Has a closing but not plodding style and at 15-1 ML she looks overlayed.
• 4 Myfourchix – Another that broke her maiden in a stakes, this one at SAR. but was another destroyed by Temper Mint Patty. It may have been the mud that gave her problems, but we won’t know until after this race is run.
• 5 Sweetpollypurebrd – two nice races for the ultra-hot Rudy Rodriguez. Doesn’t look like Temper Mint Patty but is a competitor for the lesser awards.
• 6 Quezon – six length winner in a pretty good time in the mud at BEL a month ago. Tiz Wonderful two year olds have been impressive this year and this is a good one. Should be fine at the mile distance.Perhaps the main threat to the 9
• 7 Sandra – seven length winner at 7F at BEL two weeks ago. There is enough speed in this race so not let her loose early. Could be any kind at this point, and although her Beyers doesn’t look good in comparison, her pace figure is. I’d say ignore at your own risk.
• 8 Serious Happiness – 30-1 ML and probably deserves it. Took her five times to break her maiden, which she did at Parx. I’m not a fan.
• 9 Temper Mint Patty – devastating win in the mud at BEL in September after breaking her maiden at SAR. She’s fast, she’s well-bred, and deserves the favorites role.

Race 4     The Mohawk      3-9-1-8

• 1 Kharafa – Only one win this year, but has been competitive in all his races. At 5-1 ML he’s priced where he should be. Hard to see the win, but not hard to see him being part of the exotics.
• 2 Analysis – just doesn’t look good enough to compete with these.
• 3 King Kressa – between him and Lubash you have the winner of most of the state bred turf route stakes. Probably the better of the two at the mile and a sixteenth.
• 4 Captain Gaughen – I can’t see his chances being very good against the best state bred turfers.
• 5 Harbor King – MTO
• 6 Ocala Jim – he’s a good horse, but has never been competitive above NW1X. Hard to imagine he beats the best in this field.
• 7 Saturday Appeal – MTO
• 8 Notacatbutallama – Perhaps a half step below King Kressa and Lubash, but still belongs with this group. Pletcher/Velasquez are always dangerous.
• 9 Lubash – one of the big three in this race. Has a nice pressing style, and can be effective at the mile and a sixteenth. Seems to prefer the firmer going, but the track has been drying out and will likely be no worse than good. See-saw for the win with King Kressa.
• 10 Front – another who is a good horse, just not as good as some in here. His two wins this year have been against lesser. Maybe toss him in the back holes.

Race 5     The Iroquois     8-6-4-1

• 1 Capella Dancer – has been mostly starring at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle. Won a stakes on a muddy track, and on the wet going has won 7 of 10. Not so bad on the fast dirt with 4 wins and 7 seconds out of 16 starts. She may be a little over her head in this group but she can’t be immediately dismissed.
• 2 Make the Moment – one win at BEL, another that seems to upgrade when the track is wet. 12-1 on the ML and that about describes her chances.
• 3 Kimmies Lucky Star – plodding sort hasn’t won this year and is still eligible for NW1X races. Can’t see her making an impact in this race.
• 4 Willet – Finished 3rd in the Gallant Bloom last out. In eight starts at BEL she has 3 wins, 2 place, and 2 show. Needless to say, she likes BEL and that is always a positive factor. Perhaps she’s tailed off a bit as a 6 year old, but still represents a big player here.
• 5 Irish Whisper – has been off since April but last time she was on break she came home in front. Still, she looks a cut or two below stakes level and would have to fun faster than she ever has to get a piece here.
• 6 Risky Rachel – switches to the George Weaver barn for this start. Won earlier this year at Tampa, and ran competitively in her two sprint stakes at SAR and BEL earlier this year. Weaver has her cranked given the swift breeze six days ago. Upset possibilities
• 7 Cape Cod Carol – couldn’t beat an OC $40 field at Parx last out. Was slammed by La Verdad in the slop in the Broadway stakes and no reason to expect a turn around today.
• 8 La Verdad – makes a living beating this type of field. Ran into the monstrously tough Artemis Argotera in her last two, but still ran creditably. Depends a lot on the pace, but the expectation is that she’ll be able to get to the front and dictate comfortable fractions. If she does she should run away from the field.
• 9 Champagne Ruby – Won the Niagara at FL but flopped in the mud in her next. She’s not had much luck in the statebred affairs at BEL and seems one of the also rans in this race.

Race 6

• 10 Ode to the Hunt – finished second first out, outrunning his 19-1 odds. He’s come back with a dazzling series of works. Knows the track, knows the distance and gets the nod.
• 11 Trees Are Wild – Nick Esler is 29% with firsters. Rockport Harbor is a fair turf sire, and his dam Kindness has plenty of turf upside. Works are decent but will have to overcome the outside post.
• 9 Brother O’Connell – had some touble in both his starts but with a clean break and smart trip he competes here.
• 12 Gear Jammer – had the lead most of the race in his last start and just missed holding off Ode to the Hunt. Carlos Martin does well with two year olds.

Race 7     The Empire Distaff     5-9-3-1a

• 2 Pennymine – hasn’t been the distance and has been up against OC $40K. Not likely today.
• 3 Sunny Desert – love the way Bruce Levine has brought her up to the race. Definitely seems better at a mile and a sixteenth. 2 for 4 on the BEL turf and a contender today.
• 4 Flipcup – has been racing with these sorts all year. Prefers to lay back and make a late move and that may be effective today, Contender.
• 5 Princess Violet – came into her own last race after knocking heads with the likes of Untapable and Stonetastic in graded races. Has the fastest pace figure, but she hasn’t been successful at the distance yet. Favorite but not unbeatable.
• 6 Lady Gracenote – outsider in this field.
• 1 Dreaming of Cara – has been competing with state bred stakes runners but not very successfully. She hasn’t had a win in 10 starts this year and no reason to expect today is the day.
• 7 Storied Lady – hasn’t been able to crack through at the stakes level but has some in the money finishes. That looks like her best hope today.
• 8 Tahoe Tigress – only win this year was an open OC $62 NW2X. Otherwise in her stakes tries she’s not been a threat. I don’t think she’s a threat today.
• 9 Star Grazing – Jimmy Jerkens is looking to get back on track at the fall BEL meeting. She won the Fleet Indian as she zipped through her conditions, had a troubled trip last time and never really got into the race. Still, she needs to be respected here.
• 10 Unbelievable Dream – 0 for 8 this year, should be 0 for 9 after this race.
• 1a Carameaway – stronger of the two Friedman entrants. Loves to run to the front and looks to be in top shape. Some plusses and minuses, but definitely a contender.

Race 8     Empire Classic     8-3-6-2

• 2 Sinistra – won the Shipman and then went into a couple of open OC $62 events where he ran respectably. Contender.
• 3 Saratoga Snacks – is 2-1 on the ML but I’m not sure he deserves it. Was good as a four year old but hasn’t made it to the winner’s circle this year. On her best day he tops this field, but I wouldn’t take him at 33% odds.
• 4 BeautyinthePulpit – beat the 3 last out at a mile after being off a couple of months. He  loves the BEL surface and is fine at the distance but I’m going to look elsewhere for the win.
• 5 Effinex – second in the Albany but only wins this year were on the AQU inner. Not the one today.
• 6 So Lonesome – was the winner of the Albany in his first race on the dirt wince last year at BEL. Seems to be a little in and out but at his best is a fast horse. Contender.
• 7 Eye Luv Lulu – in the money at best
• 1 Empire Dreams – seems a step slower than the best of these and relagated to a minor award.
• 8 Sioux – improving 3 year old dominated an OC $40K field last out. I like the works and Hushion has been good in spots like this. Major Player
• 1a Awesome Vision – couldn’t compete against open company last two outs but has been useful in state bred stakes. I think he’s slated for a minor award at best.

Race 9    The Ticonderoga       10-5-9-6

• 2 Mah Jong Madness – won the Mt. Vernon at a mile at BEL earlier in the year. She seems to have tailed off in the last couple but to be fair they were on a good turf she doesn’t prefer. Could get a piece at a price, but that’s the best I can see.
• 3 Run to Mama – has done well with state-bred OC $40K but doesn’t seem fast enough to take the top spot in here.
• 1 Selenite – won the NY Stallion Series at SAR at nice odds. You’ll get those odds again today but I don’t think she is likely to finish in front. Another with back hole prospects at best.
• 4 Palace Dreams – SCR
• 5 Invading Humor – has a four race winning streak for Bruce Levine. I think the streak ends today, but her speed is still dangerous. Hot Joel Rosario rides.
• 1a Chrysolite – doesn’t appear to have the speed to contend in this field.
• 6 Strike Accord – second in the Hettinger to Invading Humor. She should be coming to the race in top form.  I like her to catch a minor piece.
• 7 One Time Baby – has been strong in OC $40K races but unfortunately this is not a $40K race.
• 8 Old Harbor – has run well at this level. I think she is better than 15-1 but she looks no better than a minor player to me.
• 10 Discreet Marq – the fastest, the classiest, the best.
• 11 Stock Fund – not a win type and definitely not a likely winner today.
• 12 Caribean Beat – AE gets in, but but shouldn’t have an impact on the outcome.

Race 10   The Hudson     4-7-10-5

• 1 Chapman – has some early foot, but hasn’t won since the AQU inner dirt. Not at all likely to win; a minor slice at best
• 2 West Hills Giant – has been competitive with these for a while, and wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he was in the exotics but I’m starting elsewhere.
• 3 Noble Cornerstone – has been popping up and down in class but won a nice open allowance last out. I’m not putting him in the top three but I thought about him for a while.
• 4 Weekend Hideaway – ran nicely in the Forego and before that won a couple of state bred affairs. Loves BEL, loves the distance, and has some consistent figures.
• 5 Big Business – has been competitive all year, and is a 30% winner lifetime. He belongs in this group but I’m leaning in other directions for the win.
• 6 Sandy’z Slew – I don’t understand the 30-1 ML; his last two were off the turf affairs and he actually won his last. I don’t think he is a world beater, but he is a hard trying horse that likes BEL.
• 7 Moonlight Song – early speed specialist seems to thrive on the front end and is the best speed in here. If he gets a sensible pace, he can be a factor.
• 8 John’s Island – doesn’t look good enough to win this one, but has a neat 4th place finish in the Amsterdam. Jimmy Jerkens has been ice cold at BEL but lately is showing signs of waking up.
• 9 Leila’s Jazz – A competitive horse and his last was impressive but he looks like another that is only likely to catch a minor piece.
• 10 Captain Serious – In seven starts he has shown a lot of talent although lately he seems to be a little heartless in the stretch. Still, I definitely think he he can be a threat here.
• 11 Crafty Dearmer – just not fast enough to beat these.

Race 11

• 5 Manoffire – Cuts back to the sprint distance and this is probably where he belongs. Steady works for his return. Lisa Lewis is 44% first time with a horse.
• 11 Spider Roll – closed nicely in his debut at Presque Isle and got a nice number for that race. Now in the Steve Klesaris barn and he is 26% with first timers in his care. Hasn’t been on the turf but his breeding is fair for turf sprints.
• 3 Runaway Posse – looked good first time on the turf. The cutback in distance should help. Improvement is expected here.
• 8 Awesome Lute – claimed in his first two starts and switches to the turf for new trainer Schosberg. Also adds Lasix. Working decently off the mini-vacation.

Like the Who said, it’s another tricky day. Lots of racing competitive because of the talent or lack thereof.

Race 1     4-1-2

Race 2     5-2-3-6

Race 3     3-12-11-7

Race 4     5-8-4-6

Race 5     4-2-9

Race 6     2-1-9-8

Race 7     7-3-9-11

Race 8     (in-depth analysis race of the day)     4-8-1-3

• 1 Rock Me Mama – Was claimed by Richard Metivier for $25K. He promptly jumped her up to $50K on the turf, a surface on which she has shown little talent. He then moved her to s 6F starter allowance on the dirt. In that contest she bobbled at the start and never got into the race. She’s not terribly misplaced in the ALW NW1X but she is 0 for 2 on the BEL dirt. I give her an outside chance here.
• 2 Malibu Queeen – scratched
• 3 Pebble Beach Baby – an interesting horse for high percentage trainer Ramon Preciado. She comes off a win at Parx in a $16K starter. She’s been well traveled, with races at SA, GG, OTP, and DMR as well as Parx with pretty fair success. She doesn’t have the pace figures of some in here, but she is very consistent. If she takes to the BEL surface, she could run to her 2-1 ML odds.
• 4 Whispering – 3 year old filly broke her maiden early in the year at GP on the turf. While her three dirt starts haven’t resulted in a placing, her last race was a lot better than looked. The field that day was better than this field. The place and show horses both came back in their next out to win NW1X allowance races. At 6-1 on the ML she represents good value.
• 5 Holiday’s Jewel – hasn’t showed much in her last three races; in fact, hasn’t shown a lot this year. A non-contender for me.
• 6 Streethomealabama – Most recently has been racing in Kentucky. Was claimed out of her last race by low profile trainer William Heffner. She has only one win in 14 starts, but 8 seconds and thirds. At best, she gets a minor piece.
• 7 Penthouse Party – claimed from her last by Oscar Barrera III. She hasn’t been fast enough lately, but does have a lot of tactical speed. While I’m not leaning in her direction, if she guns from the get-go she may have something to say at the end.
• 8 Madaket Millie – ML favorite for Chad Brown, has not run at the sprint distance in her career. She finished within half a length of a strong allowance field at SAR but has tailed off in her last two. Two weeks ago at BEL she showed her normal early foot, but faded in the stretch. Still, no horse was beating Snowbell that day and she did run well enough on the dirt to get Brown to send her out for another try at a shorter distance.  Has a lot of upside, but definitely doesn’t look unbeatable.

Race 9     6-10-5-11

I handicapped the card assuming the turf races would stay on the turf. Unfortunately, I have some business to attend to so I won’t be able to re-handicap, so take this for what it is worth.

Race 1      8-3-1-5

Race 2     5-9-8-3

Race 3     3-1-8-2

Race 4     9-1-6-11

Race 5     8-6-3-7

Race 6     5-1-8-9

Race 7    8-4-6-5     (in-depth analysis race of the day)

• 1 Indy Tune – was claimed by Oscar Barrera III two back for $20K and he immediately stepped him up to a $40K NW2X. He flopped in that race, although he had a troubled start. His figure is competitive, but he has not had success at the $32K level. I can’t see more than a minor award.
• 2 Doc Almon – was claimed by Bruce Brown for $20K in August off a turf race where he ran a close third. He’s run two dirt races in $25K starter allowances and they look good enough for him to be competitive in this spot, but I expect his win prospects are not as good as others in here.
• 3 Metaurus – has been running for $50K and drops a little today, but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle in the last two years. Just doesn’t look fast enough to finish in the money.
• 4 Bernie the Maestro – Last time he won it was on a sloppy track. In fact, in 9 starts on a wet track, he’s won 4. Has plenty of tactical speed and could take them all the way.
• 5 Joan’s Choice – Ran a strong race for $20K last out. Jacobson left the horse in the barn, only giving him one workout three weeks ago. On the down side, he hasn’t won in seven tries at BEL, in fact finishing up the track in a 7F affair in the mud in July. Has a shot, not the best shot though.
• 6 Regulus – has run two interesting races where he contested the pace early, dropped back and then came on again in the stretch. He  ran competitively at BEL in May. One for two on a wet track and figures in the mix.
• 7 Back Forty – claimed last out by Falcone who has had one winner in three tries 1st off he claim. He’s been a useful horse, and his wet track rating is about as high as it ever gets, even though he is 0 for 2 in the moist going. I can’t see more than a minor award here.
• 8 Royal Currier – The other Jacobson runner has been running with much better, winning a minor stakes at DEL in June. Two for six on the BEL dirt. No wins on a wet track, but has had two seconds in six tries. His last race in the mud at BEL he looked over his head so I wouldn’t downgrade him much. May go off the favorite and looks best to me.

Race 8    10-11-7-3

Race 9    1a-11-2-5

In the last three days one of my selections has won 24 of 29 races at BEL. I hope to keep the magic working today.

Race 1      2-6-4

Race 2     2-9-7

Race 3     4-3-1

Race 4     10-2-5-7

Race 5     6-3-4-9

Race 6     4-6-3-12

Race 7     The Punkin Pie      2-4-8-6

• 1 Thetaloveandmine – scratched
• 2 Katie’s Garden – Speedster is one for one at the distance and hasn’t been out of the money in her career. John Sherriffs is not having a very good year, but this horse has accounted for a chunk of his success. Has a nice series of workouts in the last two weeks. Johnny V stays aboard.
• 3 Classic Point – Puts the blinkers on for Jimmy Jerkens who has been having a horror of a BEL meet. Five year old has been a bit over her head in graded stakes this year. She runs best pressing close to the pace and I’d look for Irad to try that tactic today. May not be the fastest horse, but in not without a chance.
• 4 Wildcat Lily – Rudy Rodriguez has been having a spectacular meet, and brings this one in off a prep at Parx after laying off for five months. That race should set her up nicely. One of the main contenders.
• 5 Risky Rachel – scratched
• 6 Unbound – Japanese invader makes his stateside debut for Graham Motion who is 30% with debuting foreign horses. Really was not more than an allowance horse, but given the size of Japanese fields and the fact he was generally in the top three finishers, the horse appears to have plenty of heart.  Definitely the X factor here; hard to use him, hard to ignore him
• 7 Rock Me Mama – scratched
• 8 Voodoo Tales – horse has been running with lower quality animals – $20K starter allowance, ALW NW1X. Still her last two races showed some good talent and she seems hard to leave off your tickets.

Race 8     12-7-9-6

Race 9     The Pebbles     11-4-8-9

• 1 Cash For Ever – made a tremendous close in his first start in America, only to fall short by one and three quarters. Perhaps she will do better with a little more ground to cover. Would be no surprise to see her do well in this group, but I’m going to look elsewhere for the top spot.
• 2 Hot and Spicy – James Bond brings her in from Canada where she was running in restricted stakes. She looks a step or two slower than the best in here.
• 3 Secret Someone – Broke her maiden, laid off for five months and came back to win her NW1X. May blossom in the future, but I’m not sure the future is today.
• 4 Lady Lara – been running in England where she was graded stakes placed.  It’s clear she wasn’t Group 1 quality, but she does seem to be a mile specialist. Mott has had a good BEL meeting. One of the contenders.
• 5 Distorted Beauty – Hasn’t done anything wrong this year and may outrun her odds, but she’ll have to show she can run with this kind before I’ll back her.
• 6 Walk Close – Another that should like the mile distance. She was only two and a half behind Ball Dancing who came back to run second in the QE II at Keeneland. Improving horses are always dangerous and Clement has been training up a storm. Another that wouldn’t be a total shock.
• 7 Ubiquitous Mantle – Still looking to win a NW1X. Just doesn’t look the caliber of these other runners.
• 8 Kenzadargent – Chad Brown trainee is two for two since shipping from France.  Yes, she’s stepping up but she is multiple group placed. She is a major danger today.
• 9 Sandiva – didn’t break well in the San Clemente at Del Mar but before that she was winning Group 3 races in France and England. I’m sticking with the Euros in this race and Sandiva is one of the contenders.
• 10 Munriah – three start horse for Graham Motion. Another that could be better as time goes on, but she needs to prove to me she can run with these types.
• 11 Indian Rainbow – last of the Euro invaders. Clement has been very successful with horses making their first start in America. Runs pretty much exclusively at the mile distance. She’ll be my choice in here.

Race 10     3-6-10-12

Another day where I’ll just do the detailed analysis of the feature. Lots of things going on as I’ve gotten well into the Doug O’Neill case. I still managed eight of ten with all but one of the turf races off the turf yesterday.

Race 1       5-8-2     OFF TURF   4-1

Race 2      9-3-7-5

Race 3      3-8-2-7    OFF TURF 5-3-6-7

Race 4      6-3-2-4

Race 5      3-9-5-8

Race 6      6-1a-10-8

Race 7      12-8-10-7

Race 8      1a-6-3

Race 9      The Athenia     Grade 3     1-12-2-5

• 1 Overheard – Winner of the Grade 3 Dance Smartly at WO in July; has never finished out of the money. Ran a closing third at FG on the soft turf. I talked a little about trainer Malcolm Pierce yesterday, and to remind you he has a 26% win rate with stock that is primarily running at the highest levels in Canada. Up With the Birds ran a bang-up race yesterday in the Knickerbocker and there is no reason to expect less from this runner.
• 2 La Tia – should be the speed in the race – only once in the last 10 has she not had the lead at the first call. I still think the track will be tiring but she has won on less than firm turf and has had success at longer distances than today’s 1 1/16 mile race. Not a lot of other speed to push her here so remains dangerous.
• 3 Embarr – has run well in non-graded stakes events, Doesn’t look talented enough to run with this group.
• 4 Byrama – hasn’t had the best 2014 but her last race was her best. Still, she isn’t likely to wrest the lead away from La Tia and that is how she managed to finish second. I’m leaning toward others.
• 5 Julie’s Love – two starts this year for Graham Motion. Hasn’t run badly on the soft turf but even off her best looks like no more than a minor slice.
• 6 Teen Pauline – MTO scratch
• 7 It’s My Time – really looks overmatched her. Frankly, all she can do is screw up the early pace.
• 8 Nashly’s Vow – scratch
• 9 Maximova – is not completely outless, but hasn’t run against graded company in over a year and that effort was dull. Hard to put her in the money.
• 10 Baffle Me – Definitely a contender but hasn’t finished in the money in four tries this year. Also hasn’t won at the distance. Looks at best slated for a minor award.
• 11 Cushion – has never really run fast enough to beat a graded group. Despite the presence of Clement it’s a stretch to see her winning.
• 12 Annecdote – The other Clement trainee. Shipped from England in July and under Clement’s handling (and the addition of Lasix) won the Noble Damsel in a good time. Definitely a Grade 2/3 runner and one probably the one to beat.

Race 10    3-4-9-11

Well it’s a great day in Colorado but from what I hear it’s going to be a rainy day at BEL. Hardly seems to be worth posting before I get all the scratches and off the turf races. No analysis except for the feature.

Race 1     5-1-3-7

Race 2     1-5-4-8

Race 3     1-3-4

Race 4     6-10-9-1     OFF TURF    4-10-1A-5

Race 5     9-7-1-5        OFF TURF    7-12-11

Race 6     9- 2-6-3

Race 7    10-3-1-4

Race 8    The Knickerbocker   Grade 3     7-6-4- 2

(From the official site of the NY Knicks) For those of you not familiar with early history in Manhattan, the word knickerbocker traces its origin to the Dutch settlers who came to the New World – and especially to what is now New York – in the 1600s. Specifically, it refers to the style of pants the settlers wore…pants that rolled up just below the knee, which became known as “Knickerbockers”, or “knickers”.

In 1809, legendary author Washington Irving solidified the knickerbocker name in New York lore when he wrote the satiric A History of New York from the Beginning of the World to the End of the Dutch Dynasty under the pseudonym Diedrich Knickerbocker. Later known as Knickerbocker’s History of New York, Irving’s book introduced the word “knickerbocker” to signify a New Yorker who could trace his or her ancestry to the original Dutch settlers.

With the publication of Irving’s book, the Dutch settler “Knickerbocker” character became synonymous with New York City. The city’s most popular symbol of the late 19th and early 20th centuries was “Father Knickerbocker”, complete with cotton wig, three-cornered hat, buckled shoes, and, of course, knickered pants.

At the same time, the term “Knickerbocker” became indelibly linked to anything and everything New York…from Jacob Ruppert’s Knickerbocker Beer to the 1938 Broadway musical Knickerbocker Holiday (which starred Walter Huston and featured the haunting “September Song”) to famed society gossip columnists Cholly Knickerbocker (the nom de plume used by Maury Paul and Igor Cassini) and Suzy Knickerbocker (Aileen Mehle).

• 1 Plainview – has all the early speed and figures to use it from the inside post. A mile and an eighth seems to stretch the limits of the horse and on a track that is likely to be tiring he may be up against it.
• 2 Winning Cause – Pletcher trainee beat Plainview in the Grade 3 Cliffhanger but came back in the PTHA President’s Cup to weaken in the stretch and finish third. He’s been close in graded stakes all year and should be contending in the stretch, but I’m looking at others for the win slot.
• 3 Za Approval – scratch
• 4 Speaking of Which – won the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes in June and has been given time off by Clement. He ran a good race in the Colonel Bradley Handicap on the yielding turf at Fair Grounds in January. Hasn’t won over the BEL turf yet but he should run well off the bench.
• 5 Easter Gift – MTO scratch
• 6 Legendary – Hasn’t run a bad one since rolling in from England, although he hasn’t met a field with graded winners yet. Still, he’s got competitive figures and owns a win on a yielding turf at BEL where he is 2 for 2. Should be perfect at 9 furlongs and at 8-1 ML he’s pretty attractive.
• 7 Up With the Birds – didn’t disgrace himself in the Arlington Million; prior race was a win in the Grade 2 Nijinsky at WO.  He’s won on the soft turf at Fair Grounds and he’s one for one over the BEL turf. While Malcolm Pierce isn’t well known in New York, he’s a first rate trainer of Graded winners like Aldous Snow and Overheard and stakes winner Deceptive Vision and he’s 26% running in a lot of high quality races in Canada. I like that Pierce engaged regular NY rider Cornelio Velasquez. Up With the Birds is being pointed at the BC Mile and whether he goes depends on how he emerges from this race. On the one hand, Pierce won’t want his runner to leave it all on the track, but he needs to run well enough to justify the trip to California. Lot’s of up side with this horse.
• 8 Tricky Hat – scratch
• 9 Mshawish – was running nothing but Group 1 and 2 races overseas, and Pletcher has not tested him since coming to the states until this race.  He’s mostly run at shorter distances – all his wins have come at a mile. You have to trust Pletcher to know his horses, but on paper Mshawish seems a step behind the best in this field.

Race 9         8-12-10-7      OFF TURF    12-4-7

Race 10      5-2-1-11        OFF TURF     2-10-12-11

Race 1      1-7-2-6   (the in-depth analysis race of the day)

There are seven horses entered in this race and I’m pretty sure In the Beat has no chance to win. As for the others, it looks like a very competitive race on paper.

• 1 M J Plus – has not won a race since March at Parx, but he also hasn’t been anywhere near $12,500 claimers since he was taken by Marcos Zulueta in January 2014. David Jacobson bought the horse in July and took him to SAR where he  finished up the track in a $25K starter allowance. He stepped him up to $50K open claimers at MTH, back down to $25K starter allowance at SAR and an ALW NW1X at BEL a month ago. His best race since Jacobson grabbed him was at 7F, and it seems to be bigger news lately when Jacobson doesn’t win a race. Jacobson apparently doesn’t want to lose the horse, but he needed to find a spot where he could win. This looks like it.
• 2 Apex – another horse that has been struggling with higher level allowance runners. Dennis Lalman has only 8 starts this year, all with Apex, and clearly since this is the only horse he owns and trains he probably doesn’t want to lose him, but he does need a win. He puts the blinkers on Apex, and frankly that looks like it might be one of those, “I don’t know what to do next, so I’ll try this” sort of moves. You know Lalman has to be serious, and Apex does have competitive numbers. He should have a nice pressing spot and is another one that looks like today just might have to be the day.
• 3 Moe Man – has not won at the distance and is a pedestrian 7 for 49 overall. He was claimed 5 weeks ago by Gary Contessa and raced once at a $25K tag where he finished a close neck behind Springcourt. I think he would have to improve a bit to beat this bunch so it’s a lesser award at best.
• 4 Noble Doss – was claimed last out by Linda Rice for $12,500. He’s got one win this year, a $12,500 claimer at BEL in June. He’s got a little early lick, but I think he’d have to run a career best to beat this field.
• 5 In the Beat – Doesn’t look in good condition, doesn’t have a high win percentage, and doesn’t look fast enough.
• 6 Springcourt – another Contessa claim. He won his last out and is 1 for 2 at the distance. He’s had a lot of starts – 10 – this year but he’s run very competitively in his last seven races. A little bit of a tendency to finish second. I’m not excited about his closing running style, especially since there isn’t any natural front-runner here. He fits at this level, but he certainly looks no better than a few of the others.
• 7 Box Office – A good prospect to set the early pace. He hasn’t been at a level this low since last September at MTH. His mile race on July 10 at Belmont gives him the best pace figure in the field. His last race may have been his worst, but it seemed like a mile and an eighth is a little beyond his comfort zone. Jason Servis is having a pretty fair meet, and a pretty good year. He would be the main threat to M J Plus.

Race 2

• 1 Go Olivia Go – Claimed by Jacobson last out and lately that seems to be enough of a reason to back the horse. Jacobson gave the horse most of a month off before he brought her back for a workout. Given that she had 21 races in 2013 and 15 races already in 2014 it’s no wonder she needed a break. She won for $16K at SAR, so it is a little concerning that Jacobson brings her back for $12,500, but if she does win and get claimed he’d still make a little bit of money, Not a sure thing but solid in this field.
• 5 Discreet Force – has the best last out pace figure, and has one win at the distance. She’s also got two wins in four tries at BEL. There are a couple of negatives. She has long breaks between races which shouts physical problems. Same with her workouts. Gary Gullo is very spare about putting her on the track. Obviously she runs well fresh – that’s all she does. You have to make up your mind – sore legged gamble or a fast filly ready to run.
• 3 Wild Kay – unless the track starts playing differently early speed types are not holding up well. She was claimed for today’s claiming price last out by Patricia Farro. Farro comes from a horseracing family and runs mostly in New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic. She has a fair winning percentage and won on Wednesday at BEL with Amber Morning. Wild Kay fits here but has to run the right race.
• 2 Precious Franca – another last out claim, this one by Mitchell Friedman. Although she’s dropping to her lowest level in quite a while, she seems like she would need to run her best race to beat this field.

Race 3

You ever have a race where your first thought is, nobody really looks like they can win this race? This one might be one of those.

• 2 Recanted – given the 1 for 20something (and 50something) horses in the field, I’m going to look for a horse that is not yet a confirmed NW2L runner and with at least some up side. Recanted was given to David Jacobson after being out west in the Doug O’Neill barn earlier this year. He ran his best race since being in America for Jacobson although it was at a sprint distance on the turf. He was grabbed out of that race by John Kimmel, who isn’t known for his claiming prowess but has had a decent BEL meeting. It’s a little bit of a stretch to bet him in a route race on the dirt but he is well bred for the distance and the surface.
• 1 Grandpa Len – one of the horses that seems to be more in-the-money than in the winner’s circle. This is a pretty weak field even for a $25K NW2L so it isn’t inconceivable for this one to win. He was claimed two back by Assaf Ronen and that is not necessarily a positive sign, but he should be fine at the distance.
• 7 Cosmic Coincidence – ran pretty well in the mud at SAR  for trainer Gary Gullo who claimed him two back. That was his first try at a route in a while, and he led to the stretch call. He laid off a month after that race and has had only one workout in prep for this. A little ambiguous but competitive in this field
• 6 Goodnewsisnonews – Listed as the ML favorite for Asmussen. His only win was at this distance on an off the turfer at MTH. Honestly off his best race he’s the fastest horse in here, but 2-1 on the first flash might be the highest odds you’ll see.

Race 4

• 7 Hail Cornell – has two starts for Bill Mott and we all know Mott starters usually need a race or two. He drops this one from MSW down to claimers, and that can potentially be seen as a negative, but she is a homebred and the purse plus the claiming price gives Laue Ranch a decent chunk of change. Fastest pace figure of the starters.
• 1 Arctic Ocean – showed a little bit of speed last out on the dirt and probably benefits from the inside post. Ortiz gets back aboard. With the right ride could sneak through in the stretch.
• 10 Kibble – despite the speculation that she’ll be the front runner, it could be difficult from the 10 post. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has been ice cold at BEL but he is too good to be shut out much longer. She is well bred for the distance but is suspect on the turf.
• 6 Ready Now – First timer is well bred for the turf and distance and Alan Goldberg is fair with debut runners.

Race 5

•  9 Matching Skies – starts from the far outside post and jumps up a bit for Abigail Adsit, but was only two and a half behind the big ML favorite E Z  Passer in her last. In that race she dropped back steadily after the start and made a sustained 5 wide move into the stretch. She actually took the lead at one point but was outfinished by E Z Passer who came up the rail. She’s shown a little more speed in past races and perhaps Johnny V will keep her a bit closer today.
• 2 What the Frost – last race was her first back in two months and she ran evenly around the track. Hasn’t gotten a win in 2014 but the claim by Contessa two back might make the difference. Should be a bit of a price too.
• 6 E Z Passer – had a perfect trip last time and is riding a four race winning streak. Switches to the Diane Balsamo barn after the claim last race. The trainer is a slick 6 for 26 in 2014. She will be a short price today and it might be worth betting for the 9 to turn the tables.
• 1 My Tee Time – has to gun from the 1 post but is by far the best early speed in the race. Speed has not been doing great the last two days, and 7 furlongs might be the far edge of her ability.

Race 6

I thought this was an extremely competitive affair with at least six solid contenders.

• 3 Hard Enough – Michael Trombetta claimed him for $25K two back and jumped him into a state-bred stakes at Laurel. He ran respectably – in fact he’s run respectably all year, winning the Grade 3 Red Bank at today’s distance. He’s probably best at a mile and $40K claimers should be right in his wheelhouse.
• 7 Treasury Devil – Claimed by RuRod at SAR and ran twice more at the Spa. Switches back to Johnny V from Arroyo and that should help his chances. Certainly fits with this group and on his best should contend for the win.
• 10 McIlroy – hasn’t been in the claiming ranks since a victory at BEL in June. He lost to a strong group of OC$62 horses last out but didn’t disgrace himself. The negative – he will have competition on the front end if he decides to push the pace. He is making a pretty good drop in class level, and we’ll see if that is enough to make him stay for the whole race.
• 12 Special Skills – has been consistent this year. Was probably a bit too ambitiously placed last race and should fare better with this group.

Race 7

• 2 Official – Jacobson runner has been off for over two months – in fact Jacobson didn’t put her on the track between July 23 and September 2. It’s a bit of a chance putting her on top, but Jacobson  is one of the best with this move.
• 3 Given Fire – is a speedy sort that should get some push up front from Manhattan Gin. Given her past performances, 7F looks like it might be too long for her. Last out she set a good pace on the yielding turf and almost held on. If she sets reasonable fractions at the shorter distance she may hold on today.
• 10 Aesthetique – sounds like one of the X-Men. She’s in a much better spot today, off the rail, back to 6F, and not on the yielding turf. Like her running style but needs to sustain the closing kick to win today.
• 6 Skye Saratoga – has been over her head since breaking her maiden last year at AQU. Hasn’t been on the turf yet, but Albertrani has been training well.

Race 8

• 6 Strong Impact – goes in for the price in this OC NW2X. Has almost a 25% win rate and has had good success on the BEL turf. Hasn’t been this low in quite a while. Had a little bit of trouble in his last race and if he stays clear this could be a winning spot.
• 2 Dowse’s Beach – Clement trainee has not run a bad one in a while. Has competitive figures and should be able to stay clear on the outside.
• 8 Isn’tlovejustgrand – was wide last out but finished with energy. Has won three times on the BEL turf and has been consistent in 2014.
• 9 Pretension – Early speed sort was claimed out of his last two, most recently by Gary Contessa. Most of his races are on the dirt, but he does have a win in four tries on the BEL turf.

Race 9

• 1 Congress Park – ran a good learning race last out when she took the lead in the stretch but was passed by Ack Nightly. Bruce Brown and Javier have been a successful duo.
• 4 Ten Penny Princess – Total air ball in a state bred stakes at FL on the dirt. Prior race was a strong effort on the turf where she is back today. Kelly Breen is 23% with two year olds
• 12 Fourstar Crook – first time starter for Chad Brown. He’s always dangerous in these races.
• 8 Loon River – looking to break her maiden in her fourth start. Passed a spot on Thursday for this one. If experience counts, this one is a contender.