Race 1

• 2 N.F.’s Destiny – was claimed by David Jacobson for $20K in September. He raced the horse back at the $20K level, but in open company, and he faded mildly in the last furlong. The trainer chops the claiming price in half today. The last race he won was at $10K and perhaps Jacobson thought the horse was better than that when he claimed him but now knows better. His pace figures dominate the field, but you’ll be lucky to get the 2-1 ML.
• 4 Socialsaul – was claimed by Jacobson for $16K last out and gets dropped today. His last race was difficult – he was bounced around at the start, dropped all the way back to last, but closed decently. Has 3 wins in 10 starts at BEL. Looks like Jacobson has his bases covered this race.
• 6 Awakino Cat – mainly a turf horse but is 2 for 3 on the fast dirt. He was eased in his last race three weeks ago, and comes back at a fire sale price on a surface he usually doesn’t run on. The drop looks negative, and you might look for the addition of front wraps. We’ll see if he makes it to the starting gate. If he goes, he has the numbers to get into the race.
• 3 Ten Items Or Less – Horse generally runs like he is in the express lane. Ran lights out in his last three at FL, and has won over the BEL surface. If the droppers turn out to be negative, he might be the one that moves up.

Race 2

• 4 Collinito – Actually won a race at GP earlier this year but was DQ’d. Been off 8 months, has been working steadily if not remarkably for his return. Showed a lot of early foot in his last race,  and may have some competition up front today from the 7. Still, if he runs like he did at GP he’s a major threat.
• 8 Double Whammy – I might eventually get tired of saying, was claimed last out by Jacobson because it seems to happen so much. He grabbed the horse from Pletcher for $40K and brings him back at the same level, a typical Jacobson move. He seems to like claiming a horse and trying to get a purse and a sale pretty quickly. His SAR race showed a little bit of talent, certainly enough to top this field.
• 10 Pisco Bliss – Chad Brown trainee was off for a year before coming back a month ago at BEL. Despite the 5th place finish, he was only a length and a half from all the money on a pretty decent pace and time. Brown is having an excellent fall BEL meeting and about everything he puts on the track runs. If he improves off his last, he’s a major threat to take the big prize.
• 11 Cee No More – only has one turf start in four tries and that wasn’t a great race. Ran well in a race washed off the turf last out, but given his experience I’m giving him some minor consideration here.

Race 3

• 1 Andromeda’s Risk – Has been looking for a soft spot since breaking her maiden in Jan on the inner dirt at AQU. Her last two have been at this level, although this is her first try at a route, a move Bruce Brown is fair at. This field is a combined 7 for 123, so despite the fact that her last race wasn’t spectacular, she’s only had 7 starts and I’m looking for a winner in one of the horses that hasn’t settled into a NW2L career. Take this race analysis with that perspective in mind.
• 2 Pitched – another who only has 7 lifetime starts. Broke her maiden last out at Parx after being claimed by Gregg Matties. Does have a third on the BEL dirt in her career. Perhaps now that she has a win under her belt, she’ll find a groove.
• 6 Kate Is a Ten – although she is 1 for 22, she had three races on the turf before getting back on the dirt. She’s had an interesting career, 8 races on the fast dirt, 7 on the turf and 7 on a wet track. She’s not an inspiring win bet, but she does have the figures to find one of the back holes.
• 5 Lemon and Honey – is a 1 for 16 horse that actually has her win at the distance – in fact, she’s 5 for 5 in the money at the distance. Another that seems less probable to win than finish in the money.

Race 4

• 8 Confessa – Ran a nice maiden race at a mile and an eighth at SAR in July, came back on the turf at BEL and ran evenly after being wide around the turn and into the stretch. In fact, of the nine runners, six of them ran their last race on the turf. This is a weak field in my opinion, and that gives the horse a chance.
• 3 Manner of Speaking – hasn’t quite stretched to the mile, but has been in the mix at 7F. Switched trainers to Linda Rice last out after laying off close to a year, and I figure she gets a race to figure out how to get the most out of the horse. She thinks a mile on the dirt might be the answer, and we’ll see if she is right.
• 5 Piccolo Flats – has one race on the BEL dirt, but it was an off the turf event on a muddy surface. Still, that’s one of the better races on her resume. Gets a nice switch from Lanerie to Irad Ortiz and in a field where every horse has some negative, she may have fewer of those than positives.
• 4 Saharan Seranade – Is one of the horses that has primarily been raced on the dirt. Her races haven’t been horrible or outstanding – just sort of middling. We’ll see if the switch to Castellano makes a difference.

Race 5

• 8 Doukas – I’m laying even money that Imbriale pronounces it Doo-kas with a hard k instead of the French pronunciation of the composer of the Sorcerer’s Apprentice – Du-cah. Either way, the horse has two strong races, one at this distance. She’s got some early lick, which wasn’t really be advantageous on the grass Saturday, and she has the hot Rudy Rodriguez. Not a stickout, but a lot of positives.
• 10 Lox – too bad there isn’t a horse named Bagel running. That would make for a stirring stretch duel. First timer goes for Pletcher, and it looks like he isn’t done rolling out his quality two year old crop. This one goes for celebrity owner Bobby Flay, and I tend to think Flay is looking to start making some of the $140,000 purchase price back.  Steady series of works, and a really nice 59 and 1 on the turf two weeks ago.
• 2 Lucky Song – Goes for Chad Brown, the other trainer who is lights out with first time fillies on the turf. Looked like he was trying to get her ready for SAR, but had to wait until this spot. Snappy workout 6 days ago, good turf breeding, especially for the distance. Have to respect “Heckofajob” Brownie.
• 7 All in Fun – wasn’t totally ready to run first out at 6 furlongs on the BEL turf. McGaughey has been working the horse at the Fair Hill training center and she should come back better than first out. She wasn’t disgraced losing to My Cara Mia and Greywalls, both of which ran in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo.

Race 6

With the scratch of Summer Breezing I may throw in 5 Partly Mocha. He is a closing sprinter and can be given consideration in this field.

• 9 Summer Breezing – has been racing with slightly better, Laid off for close to 8 months before coming to SAR for a couple of 5 1/2 F turf sprints, He just missed in the first one, bounced a bit in the second and has been given 6 weeks to recover. Has the best figures and a nice string of workouts for the comeback.
• 7 Mish Mosh – Claimed by Jacobson, out of a win at this same level. He jumped the horse to $50K but bounces him back down today. Spends more time on synthetic and dirt surfaces, but does have 6 in the money finishes in eight attempts. Nice pressing style and good numbers.
• 2 Ziptronic – Should be the frontrunner. The Repole stable has given the horse to unknown trainer Bernardo Callejas after Bruce Levine coaxed three straight wins out of the horse. The trainer switch is interesting as is the move from NW1X to an open $40K. Likes the distance and likes the BEL turf.
• 3 Thomas Hill – more seconds and thirds than wins – in his last ten races has zero wins but has not finished finished worse than 4th by 6 lengths. Might make the exotics.

Race 7

• 1/1a Etiqutte/Treasure – I think Jimmy Jerkens is back and he has two good starters in this one. Etiquette is probably the stronger of the two entrants. Lost to Feathered but easily bested the rest of the field. Has a nice series of sharp workouts for this race. Treasure has two starts, both of which  looked good. Makes the entry that much more powerful.
• 7 Eloquent Tribute – was a close third in the race where Treasure finished second. Second best number of the horses that have started.
• 9 Overprepared – Pletcher traineee has a nice series of workouts for her debut. Good dirt breeding and should like the distance.
• 12 Zealous Wildcat – Michelle Nevin trainee will have to overcome an outside post. Like the workout pattern and the Ortiz/Nevin combo has hit at over 30%. Could be a factor with the right trip.

Race 8

My top three choices were scratched here. I’ll add 2 Live in Joy and the 1a Compliance Officer

• 6 Bashart – three straight graded stakes, the last one a strong second. Has not yet faced older, but has plenty of talent . Prepped nicely at Fair Hill. This is a a good spot for him to pass the test against older.
• 5 Inchcape – Has been stuck at this level for most of the year, but his last race was very encouraging. He cut back to a mile after running longer and just missed the win. Will have to get past Which Market, but I like his chances today.
• 11 Slim Shadey – Really hidden horse with a big chance. Last race was a stakes on the slop at a mile and five eighths, and before that were two long races. Perhaps those races will affect the horse if he tries to go with the speed in the race, but he has enough back class to rise above the field.
• 7 Middleburg – not a win machine; more of a place machine. Given he is in the mix close to the wire every time he could grab a piece.

Race 9      The Bowl Game     1-7-8-4

• 1 Slumber – Placed in graded stakes at GP his last two starts. Has a set of figures that dominates the field and is 4 for 7 at the distance. Very strong in this race.
• 2 Alakazan Alakazan – won last out at KD going wire to wire. Has some talent but not one I’ll focus on.
• 3 North Slope – Finally won a NW2X after 6 tries. Looks a little weaker than the best in this field. Minor award at best.
• 4 Micromanage – eased in the JCGC last out. Before that finished third in a Grade 3 at Parx and won the Birdstone at SAR. He’s been running with the best older handicap horses in NY and on his best day is the equal of any in here. Pletcher/Castellano a powerful duo.
• 5 Wealth – MTO
• 6 Grand Rapport – Good at the distance, but hasn’t beaten anything better than an OC $35K. Can’t get behind him.
• 7 Sky Blazer – had some outs in the Baruch while seven wide on the turn. In that race he was beaten by none other than Wise Dan, no shame on any horse’s resume. He looks like a contender to me.
• 8 St. Albans Boy – Has been running competitively all year but with lesser animals. Relegated to the back holes.

Race 10

• 5 Lady Kreesa – just missed last time out for David Donk and Irad Ortiz. Has been leaving her backers wanting for four races now. Has been bet down to favoritism each time and hasn’t managed better than a third. Don’t know how many more chances she gets.
• 3 Keen Katana – broke her maiden here in June, raced once at SAR and has been rested for six weeks. Good tactical speed. Lots of upside here.
• 6 G Note – hasn’t looked good on the soft going, but should get a firmer track today.  I’ll look for her to prove her value today.
• 2 Willow U – Last two races give her contender status. Seems to have trouble finding her way to the winner’s circle but this is not a strong field. Could be in the exotics.