It’s a sloppy/muddy track after two inches of rain fell yesterday. The inner has played unpredictably (at least for me) when it is wet so I’ll be going very slowly today. Just hope my horses aren’t.

Abbreviated selections today. I propmised a second blog so I’ll be working on that today.

Race 1     4-1

Race 2     7-6-8

Race 3     7-2-4

Race 4     3-8-4

Race 5     4-1

Race 6     6-5-2

Race 7     4-3-2

Race 8     6-5-2

Race 9     7-9-8

Poured yesterday, so the track will be muddy today. The form is still settling and the turf horses that decided to stay for the inner dirt are adjusting. The biggest issue with racing on the inner is that horses can unexpectedly pop up and run big, and it isn’t always obvious on form. Speed did not do well yesterday, although the track seemed fair from the rail to the middle.

Race 1     5-6-4

Home to Carrowkeel has two good learning races on the turf, and is dropping substantially for Michelle Nevin. The works are nothing special, but she is deadly with horses off the layoff. Hot on Ice should be the speed here. Crystal Rocket has been off a year and returned for Contessa on a sloppy track. Race wasn’t much, but surely she needs one or two to get back in the swing.

Race 2     2-3-7

Frosty Bay is another turfer looking to hang out on the inner for a while. She has a win on a wet track, is dropping in price for Schettino, has a win in three tries on the inner. Sidisinforthree has a good lifetime win percentage and jumps up a little for high percentage trainer Michael Pino. Ocean Boulevard just won for Violette, comes back with a decent maintenance work. Has a couple of thirds on the wet track.

Race 3     6-5

Silver Silence drops back to his winning level today. Has a win and a second on the wet track. Andromeda’s Rish should be the favorite but is about the same on paper with the 6.

Race 4      6-3-1

Bert Stone ran greenly last out but with the race under his belt and the trainer change to Gullo he looks to improve all the way today. Bensational was claimed last out by Quartarolo and he jumps him up today. His race in the mud first out was not bad considering he was off a beat slow. Better break puts him in the race. Mark My Style takes the blinkers off after showing a front running preference. Contessa is 13% with that move.

Race 5      5-7-2

Sweets Galore has a good wet track record and is good at the distance. Has the top number going into this one. Hoopskirt is 8 of 9 on the inner and has a high wet track rating. Taylor Jagger was claimed last out by Nick Esler. She is 2 of 4 on the inner and while she hasn’t won on the wet, she’s 4 of 5 in the money.

Race 6     7-1-6

Read the Mirage is 10-1 ML had some big numbers on the inner last year and was taken in a turf race by Thomas Morely. He came back on a good AQU track and ran toward the front early, weakening toward the end. Jose Ortiz stays aboard and if he shows the same interest on the inner as he did last year he looks best. Boss Daddy just missed in the slop in October and came back to finish within a neck of winning at AQU. Perfect American has 10 starts but has a second and third on the wet track and a third in two tries on the inner. Seems more likely to make the exotics than win the race though.

Race 7     2-9-7

Brother Ralphie broke his maiden on the inner and ran a nice third coming off a five month layoff for Linda Rice. She is 25% with second off the layoff. Sun Storm has been showing speed but no ability to stay strong in the stretch, but he drops to his lowest level and that may give him enough of an edge to stay in front. Blue Chips only is dropping way down for this and Englehart is 36% with the turf to dirt move.

Race 8     5-7-8

Lunar Rover has a win and a second on the wet track, including a nice muddy run last out. Led in the Ontario Derby into the stretch and is not facing nearly that competition today. Casiguapo was competitive in the Amsterdam then tailed off slightly. Came back at Parx to run a nice second in a NW1X. 2 of 4 on the wet track. Sassicaia broke his maiden on a sloppy track last out and will be one of those battling up front today. Having Chad Brown on your side counts for something.

Race 9     8-4-6

Socialasul looks far the best for Jacobson who is having a mediocre inner meet by his standards so far. Still, not so much to beat here. Lubango has a win over the inner and is 3 of 4 in the money on the wet track. Irad Ortiz replaces Izzy Rodriguez and that is a major bump up. Star of New York looks good enough to fill out an exotic ticket.

This will be an abbreviated version since I’ve been working HS BB tournaments this weekend. Besides, the track is a mess and there were a ton of scratches. I’ll monitor the card, but if I play it will be cautiously.

Race 1     1-3-6

Race 2     8-6-2

Race 3     1-5-3

Race 4     1-8-7

Race 5     1-5-3

Race 6     11-8-7

Race 7     2-4-7

Race 8     1-4-6

Race 9     7-11-4

Race 1     7-6-1

Papa Tom has been turfing all summer but he’s shown a liking for the inner dirt. On the down side he’s 2 for 39, but those two wins came on the inner. Certainly has the numbers to win. Gaining Ground is dropping to his lowest level in search of a win. Of the RuRod entry Solly’s Mischief looks the better of the two.

Race 2     3-6-1

Time for Harlan drops to the bottom for this run after two off the turf races. Her number tops the field. Bella Forever showed good speed on a sloppy track but may have to tangle with East Coast Express on the front end. You Take the Cake has 24 starts but is good enough to catch a minor piece.

Race 3     1-5-2

Dreaming of Cara struggles to find the winner’s circle but has been racing with better. Miss Da Point has four wins in nine starts on the inner dirt and should get first run in the stretch. Lady Gracenote has top numbers but will have to run by everyone in the stretch.

Race 4     6-7-8

Krista’s Persona puts the blinkers on for this try after showing speed and fade. Cuts back in distance and that should help. Saluda looks for a win in her 9th start. Has the numbers but is suspect when it comes to heart. Sky Fortune goes off a short layoff for Jeremiah Englehart.

Race 5     1-5-4

La Bella Valeria has plenty of early speed and has a win and a second at the distance. Go Olivia Go has 4 wins in 11 starts on the inner and will be one of the ones coming in the stretch. Your Move is three of four at the distance and two for two on the inner.

Race 6     5-7-1

Freudex just missed after a nice tracking trip last time and cuts back half a furlong today. Readyheartandsoul is coming off a two month rest. He was competitive when moved from the turf to dirt at SAR  and then came back at BEL where he got caught outside the whole way. Should have a better trip today. Tottie Royer  is much better bred for the dirt than turf should enjoy the cutback in distance.

Race 7     5-4-6

Darling Bridezilla has no wins in 5 starts on the inner, but is making the big drop for Jacobson who is both effective on the drop and second off a layoff. Sweet Sway is 3 of 4 on the inner and looks to be in good condition. Midnightpositano struggles to find the winners circle but has the numbers to grab a piece here.

Race 8     6-4-1-2

Half Nelson has good speed and is 4 of 5 in the money on the inner. Lots of space between races so that is cause for concern, but when he’s right he’s got the ability. N.F.’s Destiny goes for Jacobson who is having mixed success on the inner this week, although this one is 3 wins in 5 starts on the inner. Laila’s Jazz was over his head in the last one, but was competitive before that and has a win on the inner. joe Mooch is another in good condition and goes second off the claim for Linda Rice.

Race 9     6-10-5-7

Swivel got pinched back early in his first start but still ran well. Tiznow has been an effective sire, especially for horses trying dirt routes. Beyond the Green looks primed for a good effort after losing as the favorite last out. Persuasive Devil is five of six in the money and could be a part of the exotics. Arctic King is another that has been competitive and looks much improved for trainer Bruce Brown.

I understood NYRA is calling off turf racing for the year, so all the races are picked for the inner dirt.

Race 1     5-7-3

Lil’ Zilla has been hanging around at the $40K level for a while and drops today to the inner dirt bottom level maiden price, $25K. Her first six starts were on the turf, then she ran into a sloppy track, then ran a pretty good race in an off the turf affair on the fast AQU dirt. If she takes to the inner she’s the fastest. Peach Lake is looking to find the winner’s circle in start 18. Lot of seconds and thirds lately so she should be competitive even though the win is questionable. Built in a day only has four starts and looks like she’s been waiting for a distance of ground on a fast track.

Race 2     6-5-2

Rosemarie is another one that might appreciate the cutback. Nice figures, but has trouble getting up first. Mononoke is a total money burner, but is good enough in this field to slip into the win slot. Lemon and Honey has 3 seconds and a third in 10 starts this year and may inherit one of the exotic spots.

Race 3     2-3-6

Blue Shark is dropping from MSW to this low claiming level. He’s shown a lot of ability to get interested early, but hasn’t finished so well. He’s definitiely bred more for the dirt and should be fine at the distance. American Hero is another with competitive numbers, but will need a good spot and a good pace to run at. Warrior’s Hero has lots of speed but has been having to spend it on sloppy and muddy tracks and the dirt. Last time on a fast track he almost won.

Race 4     6-12-11

M J Plus just missed at this price three weeks ago and has consistently good figures. Love to Run was claimed last out by Chris Englehart and he is fair first off the claim. May have to duel with Shankopotamous but he’s shown an ability to sit just off. Lot’s of in the money finishes. Global Asset seems to be a little faster on the turf, but ran very well in his last race over a good AQU dirt. Claimed last out by Bruce Levine and he is good with new barn arrivals.

Race 5     2-3-4

Apex has good tactical speed, a win at the distance and a win over the AQU inner. Bemata was left in his last start at Parx, but prior to that he was running well. Dighton is new to the Bruce Levine barn, but has two wins, two seconds on the AQU inner.

Race 6     11-1-13

In a competitive race the MTO Our Caravan is finally dropping out of graded stakes to try his hand with OC $62K runners. He should find this field much easier. One of the Klesaris entry will scratch, and if it is off the turf Frazil is the one likely to start. He’s got nice tactical speed and just lost last out to Golden Itiz after dueling all the way around the track. He’ll be looking to turn the tables on an inner dirt where he is 5 for 16 in the win slot and 11 for 16 in the money. Golden Itiz goes for three in a row. Hasn’t been on the AQU inner, but has been running strong figures. Has a nice tracking style.

Race 7     7-3-1

Herbal Prospecter runs wet or dry, and goes second off the claim for Tony Dutrow who is 28% with that move. Big Town is not well thought of by the linemaker at 12-1, but he figures as fast as any horse in here and is well suited to the distance. Pleidian has front running ability, although he’s like to battle for the lead. Still, he’s 5 of 9 at the distance.

Race 8     5-6-1

Spa City Fever has a decided figure advantage, although lately Jacobson hasn’t been finding the winner’s circle at his normal rate. Still, gotta go with the number here. Saratoga Snacks was good enough to race in the Cigar Mile last year and although he hasn’t hit the winner’s circle this year, he’s been running well all year. Bond Vigilante has only had one race this year and Chad Brown is 22% second off the layoff. He’s got plenty of tactical speed and was racing with better last year.

Race 9     6-2-3-4

6 Twist ‘n Bake has the fastest figures, although they are on the turf. Turf horses did well today, so we’ll see if that continues. Ozone puts the blinkers on after showing plenty of speed her first two outs. Not sure why and Contessa is only 5% with the move, so we’ll see what difference it makes. Kisses for Romeo was right behind Ozone last out and can improve for a warming Dominic Shettino. Perfect Freud was third last out after running wide out of the 10 post. Sydney Dutrow put in a claim and wheels her back a tick higher.

We’re finally on the inner dirt but NYRA hasn’t given up on the turf yet. Let me ask a question. If the turf can’t be better than soft after 5 days of no rain, what hope do we ever have for getting a firm turf?

Race 1      7-1-6 

Senso goes for Jacobson. She’s been at the $40K level for a while, which is not a good thing, but she had a couple of good races in off the turf affairs her last two. She’ll be a suspect favorite but has raced best on the dirt. Confessa had some trouble at the start last race. Will be bet off one good dirt race at SAR at this level that she might have won with a better trip. Maura’s Pass ran fair on a sloppy track last out and gets a trainer change to Jason Servis.

Race 2      5-3-7

Razia Sultana has been consistent in he first three starts. Didn’t care for the mud at BEL but has been working hard in the mornings lately,. Violette and Ortiz have been a strong combo lately. Good Shot has been second in his first three starts and she seems to be getting better with each start. Stolen Victory has been off the turf her last two starts. Finished close behind Good Shot two back. Room for improvement.

Race 3      1-4-2

America spent most of the year tackling the likes of Untapable and Stopchargingmaria and soundly beat an allowance field in the mud at AQU last out. Stands out in this field. Evening Show has been struggling to find the winner’s circle this year but has been running competitively. Lunar Surge has been having a good 2014 with 7 of 8 in the money. She’s another that has a lot of thirds compared to wins, but could make the exotics.

Race 4      4-14-10-2

Mambo at the Gym improved substantially when dropped to this level. Hasn’t been on the dirt yet but has good tactical speed. Harbor King is the MTO in the race. Richard Metivier has so far refused to give up on him and has put him in state bred MSW. Perhaps with the drop to MCL he improves. Puts blinkers on. Identity Crisis has been mainly on the dirt and is much better bred for the dirt than the turf. Bold Runner has a lot of speed and will be the one to catch.

Race 5      5-6-2

Prove It All Night has a good turn of speed that she’s been using to her advantage. Jumps up off the claim. Lopez is usually effective with frontrunners. Kelly’s Prize drops in from the state bred ranks. Last time she was at this level she ran creditably. Mr Rico Is Valid didn’t seem to care for the turf last time but two back he was competitive on the BEL mud. Gullo claim hasn’t win’t yet for him but he is 24% with the turf to dirt move.

Race 6      7-8-5-3

Two year old maiden race has a number of promising first time starters and a few second time starters. Call me Stoney switches to Bruce LEvine for his second start after showing speed and fading last out. That race certainly gave him necessary experience and the intervening works should have him with a  good edge. All Is Number goes first time for Violette and has a nice series of works for this one. Violette has been hot wtih firsters lately. Apollo Eleven goes first time for RuRod and Castellano. Good works for this debut. Francis Freud had trouble at the break first time out in June. Cannizzo laid him off until this spot. Should come back fitter and stronger.

Race 7      4-7-1-6

American Progress puts the blinkers on for Leo O’Brien and takes a price tumble from NW1X. Has a win on the inner dirt and that moves him up today. Bajan Summer improved when moved to the dirt and dropped to this level. Switches to Angel Cruz for this trip. Three For Me is making his 13th start but he has shown a tendency to finish in the money. Another with a win and a second on the inner.

Race 8      8-3-7

The horses that ran on Sunday all scratched out of this race leaving four runners. Clean Eleven looks like the speed here and is decently bred for the route. Castellano stays and that is a good thing. Legally Bay is 1 for 25 and has been knocking around this level for a while. She’s got some fast figures and with only three competitors she has a better chance than she’s had in a while. Swift Taylor is coming from FL with three wins in her pocket including one on the inner at AQU.

Race 9      10-8-5

Mr. Lit comes in from FL for new conditioner Michelle Nevin after being off for a year and a half. The first race was certainly necessary and he has a win, second, and third in four races on the inner. Straight Bite showed some speed last out at a mile in the slop at AQU but faded badly. Switches to the Bruce Levine barn. Much better bred for the dirt and a wet track. Byron’s Pop is the Jacobson trainee coming in. He showed some speed in his last before fading. Expecting better today.

Due to some technical difficulties with my web page provider, it’s an abbreviated analysis today. I can assure you I put as much effort into these picks as I always do.

No idea if the track will play to the inside front like it did yesterday. I would guess that the maintenance guys might have been slightly embarrassed by the merry-go-round nature of a lot of the races and did some dirt moving today. But, pay attention, and if it is still there, look for the inside speed on the dirt. My selections are for a fair track.

Race 1     2-7-4-1

Violette has two in here, and the better rider goes to Vagarious. Still, McQuaid still has some up side. Only two races, both times he was all but eliminated at the start, and he had to deal with the mud last out. He rushed a little in that race and flattened. In his first start he actually showed some close. Certainly there are horses with better figures, but they all have more than 5 starts. He’ll be the long price and worth a look. Keen’s Cupla and Hidden Warrior are the speed and the figure horses and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them duel to the wire.

Race 2     10-11-13-8

Off the turf and it’s bombs away time with Kimmies Lucky Star. She fits the conditions, although that 1 for 16 gets leaves me unsettled. Royal Jest is developing seconditis, but has good enough figures to compete. Piccolo Flats just broke her maiden and will be tested against winners, but that was a convincing score.

Race 3      3-5-2

North Ocean is the speed and has the best number. Small worry with Petrocelli causing him to blow his brains out early, but he doesn’t look like an anxious speed type. State Flag has 7 dirt races and has won 3 of them. He’s mainly a plodder, and that may work against him today. Socialsaul goes for five in a row, but I think the fact that he hasn’t been claimed is a negative, maybe indicative of his soundness. Still, if he holds together he’s got outs.

Race 4     5-1-3-7

I’ll be the first to admit this one is a puzzle. I went to the 5 because Violette snagged one yesterday just like this with Ortiz up. But the 1, 2, 3, 7, and even the second time starter, 9, have cases that can be made.

Race 5     3-7-8

B Shanny is the speed and can finish and I like the claimed by Nevin last out. Broad Rule takes a dive in price, but is getting older and might need the discount. Coalition comes from FL and is better than 33% first and second. No problem at this class either.

Race 6     11-9-4-8

Two year old state bred fillies. Zenstone has been off two months but has been working. Showed speed in her debut. Gullo is good with 2nd starters and 2 year olds. Accelebrate didn’t like the turf last out and if she runs back to her first two she competitive at a price. Yourcreditisgood puts the blinkers on and drops from MSW. Desperate time of the year for trainers of two year olds – time to clean the stables from horses that aren’t going to be top three year olds, hence the price drops.

Race 7     1-5-15-10

Another off the turf and we’ll look mainly at the MTO’s. Call Wil was going favorite on the grass, and although he’s not the same horse on the dirt, you have to respect his ability. Horatio jumps up off the claim and might be ambitiously placed but has the numbers to compete here at a price. Recanted is 10-1 ML and has been running on the dirt for a while. Might have won because of the slop, but has chances here. Cosmic Coincidence is the inside speed and may control the race.

Race 8     5-1-2

Bernie the Maestro will have to contend with Bowman’s Beast but I think the Maestro is the classier speed. Jacobson leaves Depeche Chat in the race and although he’s been turfing most of the year he has some dirt form in his past that would make him competitive here. When Jacobson leaves the weaker looking of the entry in, look out. Vegas No Show gets the steep holiday discount and that may be enough to make him part of the finish.

Race 9     5-6-8-9

They left this one on the turf. Go figure. You can see from the ML nobody sticks out so let’s go with Bartiromo. She’s better on the turf, fits the class level, and I’m predicting she stays close to the front here. Chow Fun will be one of the ones closing and has the numbers to be in the mix. Life’s a Stage is taking a drop off a last race best. Ambiguous but how do you leave her out. Ear D’Rhythm is in the mix in this field.

Well we made it through Thanksgiving, albeit not without consuming more calories than I’ll need for a week. I totally understand the idea of needing an excuse for getting a Thursday in November off, but that certainly doesn’t mean you should gobble (see what I did there) enough food that famine in Africa could be eradicated. If I miss a race or two today, I’m blaming it on an L-tryptophan hangover.

Race 1

• 11 Roman Reign – started her career on the turf with little success, and had raced her last three on wet tracks with decent success. She’s got competitive figures, a new trainer and blinkers on. I like to see horses with positive changes that have space to improve.
• 4 Shades of Indygo – not the play of the day by any stretch. Best figures of any horse left in the race, but with 12 starts already is taking on the look of a professional maiden. She’s really got the best chance she’s had in a while today. One third at AQU, a second and two thirds on a wet surface.
• 8 Letters of Fire – Jumps up from MCL $25K but showed a lot of speed on a muddy track at HAW last out and may be something of a mudlark. The change to Chris Englehart could help, and she is facing state breds for the first time.
• 5 Lutheran Miss – 6 starts, four seconds and a third. You can’t leave a horse with a record that interesting out, especially since her last was an off the turf affair where she finished a couple of lengths ahead of the 11.

Race 2

• 1 Flat Leaver – This is not a high quality field, and Flat Leaver is 2-1 on the ML, but horses dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks are generally solid plays. Hushion is 26% second off a long layoff and 2 of 8 dropping from MSW to MCL. His figures are as good as anyone’s and although he’s going to catch a wet surface, he’s well bred for the moist track and he may have enough speed to catch a decent tracking spot. The down side – a rail that has not been the place to be lately. My tepid choice.
• 6 Massolino – he’s not well bred for the turf, although his first effort on the lawn was pretty good. He’s another dropping from MSW and has an encouraging trio of works since his last race. He switches from Saez to Izzy Rodriguez, not the most positive switch, but he is on the outside and should be closing.
• 2 Blue Collar Cat – the speed of the race. He was looking promising in 2013, but took a year vacation, coming back at BEL in SEP. In that race he ran to the front, backing up a few lengths in the stretch. He came back at AQU at a mile and pretty much ran the same race. He’s obviously not better than a $40 claimer as a 3 year old, but if he grabs hold he could wire this field.
• 5 Hampden Fiveone – 15 starts, 8 seconds/thirds. Hasn’t cracked through the $40K barrier and not so likely today, but in the money possibilities.

Race 3

• 12 Lotsa Noodles – wet track specialist has 5 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. RuRod has been having a good AQU meet and she tops the group from a figure standpoint.
• 11 Ginny’s Grey – another that seems to improve with the wet track. Last seen beating a field of $25 starter allowance runners in the mud at BEL. Danny Gargan has a limited number of starters but is fair off the short layoff.
• 4 Get Gorgeous – Another that excels on a wet track. Pretty consistent figures this year and adds blinkers. Not without chances in this field. 
• 9 Agawa – finished a distant second in a race washed off the turf last out, but that is enough to expect her to be competitive. She’s had a bit of trouble with hanging in the stretch, but she gets another chance in a field not that strong today.

Race 4

• 6 Wild Freud – Ran a bang up race first out. After bobbling at the start, he rushed up to be second, but expectedly ran short of fuel in the stretch. He’s moving from a state bred $40K to an open MCL $30K. Chatterpaul is not having a notable meet, and he’s 0 for 9 second lifetime start. He’s a bit chancy, but at 12-1 ML he might be worth a second look.
• 8 Richie’s Rich – Dropping from much higher MCL ranks to this spot. He’s got the best figure in the field and has a couple of nice works since his last. Is coming from the right spot and should be pressing from the right part of the track.
• 2 Ghost Swagger – two decent races on muddy tracks and an monster wet track rating. She was claimed out of her first by Abby Adsit whose is having a pretty good AQU meet. Not quite the figure of the 8, but definitely good enough to be a big factor.
• 3 Radamel – The speed of the race. Another dropping from higher level MCL. Hasn’t shown there is an ability to stick in the stretch but might stay in the race longer with the class drop.

Race 5

• 7 Stalagmite – Far and away the speed here. Was claimed by Thomas Morley from Chris Englehart at today’s price, jumped him up to $25K, and drops him back today. He’s had a lot trouble carrying that speed all the way, but he may be lone front today and if he relaxes up front he’s got decent outs.
• 9 Mach Seven – I like that he broke his maiden after 13 tries and then came right back against winners and only finished a head behind the winner. While Joe Parker is a low percentage trainer at AQU, a horse that sparks to life like that deserves a chance.
• 5 Patty and Nooche – he’s been sniffing around all year with only a maiden win on the AQU inner dirt. He’s been steadily dropping since that race and has settled at the bottom. His figures are about the same as the other contenders, and perhaps the cutback in distance gets him over the top.
• 2 Ice Wagon – the 9-2 ML second choice right behind the 1 for 28 Harley. He’s similar in the sense that he has half his races in the second or third spot. Still, only has half the starts of Harley, drops to his lowest lifetime level, and is another with figures good enough to win.

Race 6

• 5 Cherokee Artist – Had been racing against much better, winning a minor stakes at MTH earlier this year. He finished second in a fast time last out and cuts his claiming price in half, a typical Jacobson move. He’s another of those horses from around the east coast that Jacobson has bought outright, and I have the feeling he didn’t pay so much more than today’s claiming price that he won’t do well with a purse and the claiming price if someone grabs him.
• 2 Patriot’s Voyage – This one was taken from Jacobson last out by the underwhelming Peter Chin. I’m banking on the idea that if Jacobson was still training his horse would be 3-1 instead of 10-1 ML. He ran decently in the Thomas Memorial at Sunland, one of their better quality races, and is another one of those horses that somehow found its way to Jacobson’s barn from another track. It’s only been six days since his last race, so if he still has Jacobson’s influence he’s got a shot.
• 6 Street Shark – He’s another that has kept company with some better horses in the recent past. Cuts back from his last race, and he seems better suited at 6 1/2. He’s got 5 wins in 11 starts this year, so he is a hard trying horse. No surprise if he is the winner.
• 4Bobby V. – was claimed for only $10K last out and is jumped up today. He’s been knocking around at lower levels for the last couple of months and may be in over his head, but he’s in good enough condition to make an impact.

Race 7

• 7 Sister Margaret – three starts, two wins and a  place, with her only loss to Princess Violet who is running today in the Go For Wand. She’s stepping nicely through her conditions and certainly has the figures to match strides with this field. In fact, given the ambiguity of the other runners, she’s one of the more solid plays.
• 4 Broadway Music Gal – Englehart trainee had been kicking around in the claiming ranks with pretty good success and then took five months off. The return works have been fair, but Englehart is a 26% trainer off the layoff. She’s 1 for 1 over a wet surface so that shouldn’t be an issue. The down side – it’s unlikely she took time off just to take a break and her pp’s suggest she may be more of a horse that likes to race into condition. But if she comes running, she’s competitive with this group.
• 5 Elmra – Another one with both sides. She pulled up out of a turf race at SAR in July and that has to be a little concerning, but Hennig is 21% with horses off the layoff, and she has a series of fast four furlong works for this return. Hennig adds blinkers today, and given the horse’s good tactical speed, this may lead to improvement. She was well enough thought of to go in a state bred stake in May, and only dropped to OC $40K on the turf. My guess is that it was probably a quarter crack and Hennig thought maybe she would be alright on the turf. She wasn’t and he gave her time to recover. Not a surprise if she runs well or up the track.
• 3 Spinit to Winit – has been stuck in NW2X since March, but does have a lot of second place finishes. Competitive figure, but seems destined for one of the lesser awards.

Race 8

• 13 Guyana – hasn’t been on a muddy track in a while, but is excellently bred for wet surfaces. Last two races were strong. Down side is that she has twice as many seconds as wins.
• 11 Go Olivia Go – Jacobson reclaimed her last time and actually jumps this one up in class, probably in an attempt to avoid losing her again. Effective on the wet track and has a win at the distance.
• 7 Malibu Queen – had been turfing, but dominated a field in the slop at AQU last time. The time before that when she was off the turf on a muddy BEL track she finished second. Lots of outs here.
• 12 Off My Cloud – two race win streak on the line. Has raced with better in the past. Down side with her is that she hasn’t run route races lately, but she does have a win, place and show at the distance lifetime. We’ll see if she runs out of gas today.

Race 9     The Go For Wand – Grade 3     6-5-4-2

• 1 Tapit’s World – has been running lately in G3 races and almost won the Gardenia at Ellis Park. Still, she seems a step behind some of the best in here.
• 2 Endless Chatter – at 6-1 ML she’s got a little attractiveness. She can be forgiven for failing in the Beldame, although she was up near the front most of the race and did beat four of the runners. She never was into the Turnback the Alarm, which is perhaps a little concerning. Before those two races she had reeled off three straight wins. Chad Brown is not a high percentage trainer in dirt route stakes, but she has a small chance to win it.
• 3 Street Girl – A lot of people remember the second in the Humana Distaff on Kentucky Derby day, and she just ran second in the Chilukki. What did those races have in common? Churchill Downs. She came to this race last year off three straight Grade 1 races, including a 5th in the BC Distaff and flopped. She’s not the same horse as we saw earlier in her three year old season, and given she’s 2 for 21 lifetime, I’m not feeling bad about not putting her in the top group.
• 4 Sweet Whiskey – The other Pletcher runner gets the “A” rider, Johnny V. She’s run nothing but states in 7 races this year, six of them graded. I have her in the contender list based on consistent figures this year. Her works for this race have been good, although I’d have liked to have seen one on the AQU track.
• 5 Willet – I can’t leave this horse out. She’s been a hard trying mare, especially on a wet surface where she is 3 of 4 with a second. She’s been behind some top notch filly sprinters – Artemis Argotera and La Verdad and seems to like the AQU surface. She ran fourth in this race last rear, and may improve today.
• 6 Princess Violet – Took on Untapable in the Mother Goose, finishing a surprising second. She bobbled in the Prioress, losing all shot, but has come back with two in a row including the Empire Distaff. She should love the mud too. Overall she’s had a good season and is the horse to beat here.
• 7 Moment in Dixie – She’s not completely outless, but does seem up against it here. She came from the clouds to just miss winning the Doubledogdare at Keeneland, but that’s as close as she’s come. She’s going to need a lot of pace up front to duplicae that effort.
• 8 Geeky Gorgeous – she’s underrated on the ML at 30-1, but she hasn’t shown an ability to win against this level. She is 11 for 22 lifetime, and sometimes all horses that win do is…win. I’m going to pass but with some reluctance.
• 9 Snowbell – she’s an improving 3 year old, and that is in her favor, and she doesn’t pick the toughest Grade 3 field to make her stakes debut, but overall I’d have to say she’s overmatched here.
• 10 Classic Point – she dominated a field in the Punkin Pie but is not likely to have things her own way on the front this time. I’d say she’s up against it.
• 11 Zucchini  Flower – To my eyes she’s a cut below a solid Grade 3 horse, although she is 3 of 5 in the money this year. Maybe a back hole possibility
• 12 Playful Love – No reason to believe she has any realistic shot in here.

Race 10

• 5 Stonely Heart – ran a good race in his debut, running to within 3/4 of Kleptocrat. Tried showing a little more speed in the slop and never looked like he was interested in running on the slop. She’s bred fair for the wet track and we’ll see if she finds the mud as distasteful as the slop.
• 10 Moldavite – Another that has been in the same races as Stonely Heart and Rose Quartz. In her debut she hit the front and actually held on well for the show. She had the same issue as Stonely in the slop, and is another that we’ll have to see how she feels about the mud.
• 4 Rose Quartz – this is her 9th start and she only has a second and two thirds. Still, she’s been close enough that she can’t be discounted.
• 6 Bossy Boots – I really wanted to find a first-time that looked appealing, but since I couldn’t make a good case I thought I’d give the 6 a shot here. She’s about as close as I was going to come – she’s been off since March and has returned with a nice series of works. If she’s filled out she could surprise this field.

Tough day with lots of overflow fields. I spent a looong time on this card so I hope we have the kind of success we’ve been having this week.

Race 1

• 1 Mr. Amos – broke his maiden at MTH at a mile, came back in a Futurity at BEL and didn’t run much. The winner of that race came back to win a Grade 2 event next out. He was then taken to Parx where he ran decently in a 7 furlong race. The winner of that race came back to finish second in a stakes at Laurel. He’s been racing with better and I like the pressing style here.
• 5 Oh Poggibonsi – if I had to bet based on names this one is a complete pitch. Luckily I only have to bet it. One race, one win on a muddy BEL track (how often have we been saying that). This is a pretty decent jump up from MCL $40K to OC $65K but he had a figure that would make him competitive in this field. He has solid sprinter breeding and Jeremiah Englehart is 25% with this layoff.  He’s got four similar four furlong works for this return and gets a rider upgrade to Javier.
• 3 Whateveryouwant – the 2-1 ML favorite, has the best overall figures and although it took until his fifth start to find a win, he’d been sniffing around for a while. Has good speed, but is most likely to track the 5 here. A plus that his maiden victory came at AQU and at this distance. He really is the one in control of the race and if Rosario plays it right he can get the win.

Race 2

• 3 Classic Salsa – interesting horse. Was in the Jacobson barn and hadn’t done anything since April at AQU. Was claimed last out by RuRod and he’s close to 30% first off the claim. Is dropping in claiming price by half and gets the services of Irad. Basically we’re betting the Rudy juice is better for the horse than the Jacobson juice, because otherwise he looks out of condition. Still, he has some back races that would win this race.
• 8 Horatio – only 2 wins from 19 starts, but 11 seconds and thirds. He was racing with better when Michelle Nevin grabbed him for $20K. He looks like more of a presser so he may be another that benefits from a fast Big Lute pace.
• 1/1a Big Lute/Indian Nobility – As much as I don’t like putting Big Lute on top he is dominant from a figure standpoint. He blitzed a field at BEL on a good track, but came back at 1-5 and was run down by Mop Head. He shows a couple of 7 furlong events where he was not able to hold on to the wire but with the drop to the lowest level he’s seen you have to give him a shot. Jacobson is great with the drop in price. Indian Nobilty won a $50K race at SAR in August, flopped badly on a sloppy BEL track and ran wide in a $35 claimer. He has more of a pressing style so the defection of Big Lute may have cost him his setup.
• 6 Shot to Win – aptly named. He drops to his lowest level today and was a winner in a NW1X at SAR at 7 furlongs in July, Given the layoff until November it’s not surprising he was a little short last out at a mile. He should be one that handles today’s distance just fine.

Race 3

• 5 My Tee Time – Should be the clear front runner and I’m feeling much more solid about her since Insolvent scratched. Lifetime she has been fair at the six furlong trip, although lately she’s run out of gas going the sprint distances. The drop in price may help her to retain her speed and the fact that she’s been popular at the claiming box is in her favor. Manny Franco picks up the ride and that should help.
• 7 Purling – has been running usefully this year, and did well at this level last out. Actually shows a preference for the six furlong distance so the cutback should suit her well. Has done decently at AQU. Will have to make sure to get a good tracking spot but Cornelio has ridden her effectively the last two times.
• 1/1a Blue Ballerina/Midnighpositano – Blue Ballerina is jumping up for Oscar Barrera. Fast enough to engage near the leaders but may be in there to set it up for the 1a. Midnightpositano can press and actually ran a pretty good figure last out at 7 furlongs on this dirt. She’s in about as good a condition as she’s seen in a while. Downside is that she’s more apt to finish in the money than win.
• 8 Fall Into Faith – an interesting horse. Really low key connections but still an interesting runner. Started 2014 on the inner at AQU and shifted to the turf for BEL where she has shown very little aptitude. Hier one win this year came on a good BEL main track in a race washed off the turf. She gets back to the dry dirt today. The down side – 3 for 43, but she can still hit the board.

Race 4

• 4 Trophee – Came to NA, got Lasix and closed nicely in a MSW at SAR.  Her figure from that race tops this field and the very able Christophe Clement has prepped her nicely for this start. Johnny V takes the mount and that is a plus. Should be a perfect distance. Only issue should be making sure she get the right spot to kick home.
• 3 Miss Lech – Chad Brown trainee has been knocking on the door for a while. It’s a little concerning she hasn’t made it over the top but she may be crying for the extra distance. She much better bred for a route of ground and with her experience and figures she’s a definite contender.
• 5 Angel Choir – Dropped into a MCL and nearly got the victory last out. Another with competitive figures but she’s running out of chances. More likely part of the exotics, but this is not such a tough field she can’t break her maiden.
• 8 Strum – She really hasn’t run a bad race and with Pletcher training she has to be given serious consideration. She seems much better suited to the 1 1/16 mile trip and should be able to establish a pressing position early. She only has one turf race and that showed pretty good ability, and the fact that she comes back on the turf is a good sign.

Race 5

• 13 Sonora – gets in off the AE list and has far and away the best figure. Should go to the front and try to take the field all the way home.
• 4 Madoo – only two horses in the main body of the field have started. Violette is fair with 2nd start maidens. In her race the winner was 7 clear, and she wasn’t far behind the place horse. The cut back to 6 furlongs can’t hurt and the string of workouts is impressive.
• 5 Miss Valued – Jeremiah Englehart is 18% with first timers and 17% with 2 year olds overall. Sold for almost double her stud fee as a 2 year old this spring. Has an impressive and steady string of works and should be ready for the debut. Well bred for the sprint distance.
• 8 Downton Alley – Leah Gyamati has two in here and the signs are a little conflicting. It looks like the stablemates worked in company three times and the 8 had the better of the going. However, primary rider Irad Ortiz went to the 10. Both look good so I put the longer odds in this slot.
• Some other thoughts: 10 Beating Heart Baby  is the other Gyamati trainee. Like I said, take your pick. I’m not ready to completely discard 3 Barrel of Dreams. She had a bad start and never got into the last race, but puts blinkers on today and that can make a difference. Clearly she wasn’t well thought of last out, going off at 60-1, but because we really haven’t seen the best she has we don’t know for sure she is an also ran. One of the other firsters, 6 Camille’s Storm also has a nice workout pattern, although Ryerson is not notable with first timers or two year olds.

Race 6

• 12 Super City – in a race about as bad as it gets Super City has a few positives. She’s not superbly bred for the turf, yet Colum O’Brien put her there for her first two lifetime starts. The first start she showed a ton of speed after breaking slightly slow and then not unexpectedly backed up in the stretch. Second out she never got into the race, and third out was on a sloppy track she didn’t seem to grab hold of. She’s beautifully bred for the sprint and has a really nice workout since her last. The drop from MSW to the cheap claiming ranks is huge. She also puts blinkers on today. She’ll have some work to do from the far outside, but I like the 8-1 ML.
• 5 Marriedtomichael – another one that has seen more off/turf tracks than fast tracks. Has been dropping steadily and seems to have found the right level.
• 1 Geraldine – ran into a sloppy AQU track last out and never got into the race. Before that she was competetive at this level at Laurel after being off over a year. This is the third in the current sequence and she definitely has the figure and running style to be a factor today.
• 14 Doesnotgrowontrees – first start was on a sloppy track. She had some trouble getting out of the gate, showed a little bit of interest and backed up. I’ll give her another shot to show what she’s got today, especially considering she got reasonable backing last time.

Race 7

• 9 Village Warrior – has a ton of speed and no turf form. If he goes he is intriguing because this race has such little speed.
• 7 Innovation Economy – Come from the clouds sort went a mile and a half last time. He brushed the gate on the way out and made up some ground, eventually just finishing the race evenly. Has consistent numbers in his three starts. Has a nice steady series of works for this. Brown/Castellano partnership hits at 27%.
• 8 Make a Decision – barely missed at a mile and a half at about this class level and that was encouraging considering he hasn’t won this year. Overall he has the best figures but they don’t stand far above a few in here. Has a much more midpack style, so he should get a reasonably good position and make a strong close in the stretch.
• 5 Bishop’s Castle – first start since coming from Britain. Adds Lasix for good percentage, low profile trainer Todd Wyatt who engages Jose Ortiz for the ride. Should have no issue with the distance, but only has one workout to prep. Based on his Euro comments, he’s another midpack to the rear.

Race 8

• 4 Court Dancer – laid off from December to August and returned in a SAR turf sprint. She rested again until November 1 and ran a strong second in a sprint on a sloppy track at AQU. She seems just fine on a fast dirt track and since she’s coming back in three weeks she should be in top shape for this run. She had a nice maintenance work a week ago and gets a jockey upgrade to Rosario.
• 1 Ms. Sylvia A. – broke her maiden then immediately jumped into a $40K starter, winning again. She next took on state bred stakes horses, including the well regarded Isabelle, finishing mid-pack. She then laid off for five months and came back at this class level, finishing second behind the dominating Blithely who came back to win an OC $40K. Some good works for Nevin who has been hot lately.
• 8 My Girl Madison – shows a lot of early foot and that can be dangerous in this field. Not sure she’ll like the 6 1/2 furlongs, but she’ll give them something to run at.
• 3 Rock N Cozy – Claimed by Jacobson last out off a win in a $40K NW2L. She’s better than 50% seconds and thirds lifetime, but she has been in better condition lately and Jacobson always makes a difference.

Race 9

• 4 Uncle Chester – first timer for Gyamati who does good with debut runners. He’s well bred for the turf and this distance. Nice series of workouts in preparation for this.
• 7 Worbothor – another of the first timers, this one for Steve Klesaris. He’s 21%with first time starters, 15% with two year olds overall. The works are not particularly outstanding, but she is well bred for the turf and the distance. Klesaris/Arroyo combination hits at 25%.
• 9 Humboldt and Frost – has been showing speed and takes the blinkers off in an effort to get her to relax. Hasn’t been on the turf yet, but is average bred for the surface and distance. We’ll see if she relishes the change to the green.
• 3 Renwick – goes for the Clement stable. His turf breeding is fair at best, although he is monstrously rated for the distance. Rosario gets the mount and the combination with Rosario is over 20%