Due to some technical difficulties with my web page provider, it’s an abbreviated analysis today. I can assure you I put as much effort into these picks as I always do.

No idea if the track will play to the inside front like it did yesterday. I would guess that the maintenance guys might have been slightly embarrassed by the merry-go-round nature of a lot of the races and did some dirt moving today. But, pay attention, and if it is still there, look for the inside speed on the dirt. My selections are for a fair track.

Race 1     2-7-4-1

Violette has two in here, and the better rider goes to Vagarious. Still, McQuaid still has some up side. Only two races, both times he was all but eliminated at the start, and he had to deal with the mud last out. He rushed a little in that race and flattened. In his first start he actually showed some close. Certainly there are horses with better figures, but they all have more than 5 starts. He’ll be the long price and worth a look. Keen’s Cupla and Hidden Warrior are the speed and the figure horses and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them duel to the wire.

Race 2     10-11-13-8

Off the turf and it’s bombs away time with Kimmies Lucky Star. She fits the conditions, although that 1 for 16 gets leaves me unsettled. Royal Jest is developing seconditis, but has good enough figures to compete. Piccolo Flats just broke her maiden and will be tested against winners, but that was a convincing score.

Race 3      3-5-2

North Ocean is the speed and has the best number. Small worry with Petrocelli causing him to blow his brains out early, but he doesn’t look like an anxious speed type. State Flag has 7 dirt races and has won 3 of them. He’s mainly a plodder, and that may work against him today. Socialsaul goes for five in a row, but I think the fact that he hasn’t been claimed is a negative, maybe indicative of his soundness. Still, if he holds together he’s got outs.

Race 4     5-1-3-7

I’ll be the first to admit this one is a puzzle. I went to the 5 because Violette snagged one yesterday just like this with Ortiz up. But the 1, 2, 3, 7, and even the second time starter, 9, have cases that can be made.

Race 5     3-7-8

B Shanny is the speed and can finish and I like the claimed by Nevin last out. Broad Rule takes a dive in price, but is getting older and might need the discount. Coalition comes from FL and is better than 33% first and second. No problem at this class either.

Race 6     11-9-4-8

Two year old state bred fillies. Zenstone has been off two months but has been working. Showed speed in her debut. Gullo is good with 2nd starters and 2 year olds. Accelebrate didn’t like the turf last out and if she runs back to her first two she competitive at a price. Yourcreditisgood puts the blinkers on and drops from MSW. Desperate time of the year for trainers of two year olds – time to clean the stables from horses that aren’t going to be top three year olds, hence the price drops.

Race 7     1-5-15-10

Another off the turf and we’ll look mainly at the MTO’s. Call Wil was going favorite on the grass, and although he’s not the same horse on the dirt, you have to respect his ability. Horatio jumps up off the claim and might be ambitiously placed but has the numbers to compete here at a price. Recanted is 10-1 ML and has been running on the dirt for a while. Might have won because of the slop, but has chances here. Cosmic Coincidence is the inside speed and may control the race.

Race 8     5-1-2

Bernie the Maestro will have to contend with Bowman’s Beast but I think the Maestro is the classier speed. Jacobson leaves Depeche Chat in the race and although he’s been turfing most of the year he has some dirt form in his past that would make him competitive here. When Jacobson leaves the weaker looking of the entry in, look out. Vegas No Show gets the steep holiday discount and that may be enough to make him part of the finish.

Race 9     5-6-8-9

They left this one on the turf. Go figure. You can see from the ML nobody sticks out so let’s go with Bartiromo. She’s better on the turf, fits the class level, and I’m predicting she stays close to the front here. Chow Fun will be one of the ones closing and has the numbers to be in the mix. Life’s a Stage is taking a drop off a last race best. Ambiguous but how do you leave her out. Ear D’Rhythm is in the mix in this field.