Selections

Aqueduct November 28

Well we made it through Thanksgiving, albeit not without consuming more calories than I’ll need for a week. I totally understand the idea of needing an excuse for getting a Thursday in November off, but that certainly doesn’t mean you should gobble (see what I did there) enough food that famine in Africa could be eradicated. If I miss a race or two today, I’m blaming it on an L-tryptophan hangover.

Race 1

  • 11 Roman Reign – started her career on the turf with little success, and had raced her last three on wet tracks with decent success. She’s got competitive figures, a new trainer and blinkers on. I like to see horses with positive changes that have space to improve.
  • 4 Shades of Indygo – not the play of the day by any stretch. Best figures of any horse left in the race, but with 12 starts already is taking on the look of a professional maiden. She’s really got the best chance she’s had in a while today. One third at AQU, a second and two thirds on a wet surface.
  • 8 Letters of Fire – Jumps up from MCL $25K but showed a lot of speed on a muddy track at HAW last out and may be something of a mudlark. The change to Chris Englehart could help, and she is facing state breds for the first time.
  • 5 Lutheran Miss – 6 starts, four seconds and a third. You can’t leave a horse with a record that interesting out, especially since her last was an off the turf affair where she finished a couple of lengths ahead of the 11.

Race 2

  • 1 Flat Leaver – This is not a high quality field, and Flat Leaver is 2-1 on the ML, but horses dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks are generally solid plays. Hushion is 26% second off a long layoff and 2 of 8 dropping from MSW to MCL. His figures are as good as anyone’s and although he’s going to catch a wet surface, he’s well bred for the moist track and he may have enough speed to catch a decent tracking spot. The down side – a rail that has not been the place to be lately. My tepid choice.
  • 6 Massolino – he’s not well bred for the turf, although his first effort on the lawn was pretty good. He’s another dropping from MSW and has an encouraging trio of works since his last race. He switches from Saez to Izzy Rodriguez, not the most positive switch, but he is on the outside and should be closing.
  • 2 Blue Collar Cat – the speed of the race. He was looking promising in 2013, but took a year vacation, coming back at BEL in SEP. In that race he ran to the front, backing up a few lengths in the stretch. He came back at AQU at a mile and pretty much ran the same race. He’s obviously not better than a $40 claimer as a 3 year old, but if he grabs hold he could wire this field.
  • 5 Hampden Fiveone – 15 starts, 8 seconds/thirds. Hasn’t cracked through the $40K barrier and not so likely today, but in the money possibilities.

Race 3

  • 12 Lotsa Noodles – wet track specialist has 5 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. RuRod has been having a good AQU meet and she tops the group from a figure standpoint.
  • 11 Ginny’s Grey – another that seems to improve with the wet track. Last seen beating a field of $25 starter allowance runners in the mud at BEL. Danny Gargan has a limited number of starters but is fair off the short layoff.
  • 4 Get Gorgeous – Another that excels on a wet track. Pretty consistent figures this year and adds blinkers. Not without chances in this field. 
  • 9 Agawa – finished a distant second in a race washed off the turf last out, but that is enough to expect her to be competitive. She’s had a bit of trouble with hanging in the stretch, but she gets another chance in a field not that strong today.

Race 4

  • 6 Wild Freud – Ran a bang up race first out. After bobbling at the start, he rushed up to be second, but expectedly ran short of fuel in the stretch. He’s moving from a state bred $40K to an open MCL $30K. Chatterpaul is not having a notable meet, and he’s 0 for 9 second lifetime start. He’s a bit chancy, but at 12-1 ML he might be worth a second look.
  • 8 Richie’s Rich – Dropping from much higher MCL ranks to this spot. He’s got the best figure in the field and has a couple of nice works since his last. Is coming from the right spot and should be pressing from the right part of the track.
  • 2 Ghost Swagger – two decent races on muddy tracks and an monster wet track rating. She was claimed out of her first by Abby Adsit whose is having a pretty good AQU meet. Not quite the figure of the 8, but definitely good enough to be a big factor.
  • 3 Radamel – The speed of the race. Another dropping from higher level MCL. Hasn’t shown there is an ability to stick in the stretch but might stay in the race longer with the class drop.

Race 5

  • 7 Stalagmite – Far and away the speed here. Was claimed by Thomas Morley from Chris Englehart at today’s price, jumped him up to $25K, and drops him back today. He’s had a lot trouble carrying that speed all the way, but he may be lone front today and if he relaxes up front he’s got decent outs.
  • 9 Mach Seven – I like that he broke his maiden after 13 tries and then came right back against winners and only finished a head behind the winner. While Joe Parker is a low percentage trainer at AQU, a horse that sparks to life like that deserves a chance.
  • 5 Patty and Nooche – he’s been sniffing around all year with only a maiden win on the AQU inner dirt. He’s been steadily dropping since that race and has settled at the bottom. His figures are about the same as the other contenders, and perhaps the cutback in distance gets him over the top.
  • 2 Ice Wagon – the 9-2 ML second choice right behind the 1 for 28 Harley. He’s similar in the sense that he has half his races in the second or third spot. Still, only has half the starts of Harley, drops to his lowest lifetime level, and is another with figures good enough to win.

Race 6

  • 5 Cherokee Artist – Had been racing against much better, winning a minor stakes at MTH earlier this year. He finished second in a fast time last out and cuts his claiming price in half, a typical Jacobson move. He’s another of those horses from around the east coast that Jacobson has bought outright, and I have the feeling he didn’t pay so much more than today’s claiming price that he won’t do well with a purse and the claiming price if someone grabs him.
  • 2 Patriot’s Voyage – This one was taken from Jacobson last out by the underwhelming Peter Chin. I’m banking on the idea that if Jacobson was still training his horse would be 3-1 instead of 10-1 ML. He ran decently in the Thomas Memorial at Sunland, one of their better quality races, and is another one of those horses that somehow found its way to Jacobson’s barn from another track. It’s only been six days since his last race, so if he still has Jacobson’s influence he’s got a shot.
  • 6 Street Shark – He’s another that has kept company with some better horses in the recent past. Cuts back from his last race, and he seems better suited at 6 1/2. He’s got 5 wins in 11 starts this year, so he is a hard trying horse. No surprise if he is the winner.
  • 4Bobby V. – was claimed for only $10K last out and is jumped up today. He’s been knocking around at lower levels for the last couple of months and may be in over his head, but he’s in good enough condition to make an impact.

Race 7

  • 7 Sister Margaret – three starts, two wins and a  place, with her only loss to Princess Violet who is running today in the Go For Wand. She’s stepping nicely through her conditions and certainly has the figures to match strides with this field. In fact, given the ambiguity of the other runners, she’s one of the more solid plays.
  • 4 Broadway Music Gal – Englehart trainee had been kicking around in the claiming ranks with pretty good success and then took five months off. The return works have been fair, but Englehart is a 26% trainer off the layoff. She’s 1 for 1 over a wet surface so that shouldn’t be an issue. The down side – it’s unlikely she took time off just to take a break and her pp’s suggest she may be more of a horse that likes to race into condition. But if she comes running, she’s competitive with this group.
  • 5 Elmra – Another one with both sides. She pulled up out of a turf race at SAR in July and that has to be a little concerning, but Hennig is 21% with horses off the layoff, and she has a series of fast four furlong works for this return. Hennig adds blinkers today, and given the horse’s good tactical speed, this may lead to improvement. She was well enough thought of to go in a state bred stake in May, and only dropped to OC $40K on the turf. My guess is that it was probably a quarter crack and Hennig thought maybe she would be alright on the turf. She wasn’t and he gave her time to recover. Not a surprise if she runs well or up the track.
  • 3 Spinit to Winit – has been stuck in NW2X since March, but does have a lot of second place finishes. Competitive figure, but seems destined for one of the lesser awards.

Race 8

  • 13 Guyana – hasn’t been on a muddy track in a while, but is excellently bred for wet surfaces. Last two races were strong. Down side is that she has twice as many seconds as wins.
  • 11 Go Olivia Go – Jacobson reclaimed her last time and actually jumps this one up in class, probably in an attempt to avoid losing her again. Effective on the wet track and has a win at the distance.
  • 7 Malibu Queen – had been turfing, but dominated a field in the slop at AQU last time. The time before that when she was off the turf on a muddy BEL track she finished second. Lots of outs here.
  • 12 Off My Cloud – two race win streak on the line. Has raced with better in the past. Down side with her is that she hasn’t run route races lately, but she does have a win, place and show at the distance lifetime. We’ll see if she runs out of gas today.

Race 9     The Go For Wand – Grade 3     6-5-4-2

  • 1 Tapit’s World – has been running lately in G3 races and almost won the Gardenia at Ellis Park. Still, she seems a step behind some of the best in here.
  • 2 Endless Chatter – at 6-1 ML she’s got a little attractiveness. She can be forgiven for failing in the Beldame, although she was up near the front most of the race and did beat four of the runners. She never was into the Turnback the Alarm, which is perhaps a little concerning. Before those two races she had reeled off three straight wins. Chad Brown is not a high percentage trainer in dirt route stakes, but she has a small chance to win it.
  • 3 Street Girl – A lot of people remember the second in the Humana Distaff on Kentucky Derby day, and she just ran second in the Chilukki. What did those races have in common? Churchill Downs. She came to this race last year off three straight Grade 1 races, including a 5th in the BC Distaff and flopped. She’s not the same horse as we saw earlier in her three year old season, and given she’s 2 for 21 lifetime, I’m not feeling bad about not putting her in the top group.
  • 4 Sweet Whiskey – The other Pletcher runner gets the “A” rider, Johnny V. She’s run nothing but states in 7 races this year, six of them graded. I have her in the contender list based on consistent figures this year. Her works for this race have been good, although I’d have liked to have seen one on the AQU track.
  • 5 Willet – I can’t leave this horse out. She’s been a hard trying mare, especially on a wet surface where she is 3 of 4 with a second. She’s been behind some top notch filly sprinters – Artemis Argotera and La Verdad and seems to like the AQU surface. She ran fourth in this race last rear, and may improve today.
  • 6 Princess Violet – Took on Untapable in the Mother Goose, finishing a surprising second. She bobbled in the Prioress, losing all shot, but has come back with two in a row including the Empire Distaff. She should love the mud too. Overall she’s had a good season and is the horse to beat here.
  • 7 Moment in Dixie – She’s not completely outless, but does seem up against it here. She came from the clouds to just miss winning the Doubledogdare at Keeneland, but that’s as close as she’s come. She’s going to need a lot of pace up front to duplicae that effort.
  • 8 Geeky Gorgeous – she’s underrated on the ML at 30-1, but she hasn’t shown an ability to win against this level. She is 11 for 22 lifetime, and sometimes all horses that win do is…win. I’m going to pass but with some reluctance.
  • 9 Snowbell – she’s an improving 3 year old, and that is in her favor, and she doesn’t pick the toughest Grade 3 field to make her stakes debut, but overall I’d have to say she’s overmatched here.
  • 10 Classic Point – she dominated a field in the Punkin Pie but is not likely to have things her own way on the front this time. I’d say she’s up against it.
  • 11 Zucchini  Flower – To my eyes she’s a cut below a solid Grade 3 horse, although she is 3 of 5 in the money this year. Maybe a back hole possibility
  • 12 Playful Love – No reason to believe she has any realistic shot in here.

Race 10

  • 5 Stonely Heart – ran a good race in his debut, running to within 3/4 of Kleptocrat. Tried showing a little more speed in the slop and never looked like he was interested in running on the slop. She’s bred fair for the wet track and we’ll see if she finds the mud as distasteful as the slop.
  • 10 Moldavite – Another that has been in the same races as Stonely Heart and Rose Quartz. In her debut she hit the front and actually held on well for the show. She had the same issue as Stonely in the slop, and is another that we’ll have to see how she feels about the mud.
  • 4 Rose Quartz – this is her 9th start and she only has a second and two thirds. Still, she’s been close enough that she can’t be discounted.
  • 6 Bossy Boots – I really wanted to find a first-time that looked appealing, but since I couldn’t make a good case I thought I’d give the 6 a shot here. She’s about as close as I was going to come – she’s been off since March and has returned with a nice series of works. If she’s filled out she could surprise this field.