Race 1      2-3

Bajan Beach should be the pacesetter. In his last he finished only a half behind despite having trouble at the break. Should improve today. Momma Giovanna puts the blinkers on. Great race after a six month vacation

Race 2      1-6-5

Mrs. Sunday broke her maiden for $40K at, was over her head in an OC $75K but certainly has the breeding for the mile. The drop should be in her favor. Prom Dress comes up from GP after breaking her maiden at $50K at today’s distance. Another who was at the wrong distance and price level last time. Looks tough here. So Let It Be So has plenty of early foot and should appreciate the mile.

Race 3      5-3-6

Indian Fighter is back in the MCL ranks after faltering in a LRL MSW. Actually won at this level two back but was DQ’d. Irad seals the deal. Call Daddy drops down in search of a win. Just missed on the main last fall. Represents the danger to the top one. Perfect American is making his 18th start in the maiden ranks and figures to be somewhere underneath.

Race 4      1-2-6

Miss Da Point has been close her last three and is 3 for 6 on the main. Has the speed to get a good spot. Macha was running in a G1 a year ago and ran well after a troubled start in the Bay Ridge. Was beaten by a couple of these last out but is eligible to improve. Royal Suspicion ran a big one last out and has had some success on the main.

Race 5      1-7-5

I’ll go with Rambam to spring the upset today. The figures are not that bad and this is a very weak field. Moonsilver puts the blinkes on in search of a win in his 14th start.  At a more likely level today. Aleander is 7 for 12 in the money but doesn’t seem to be able to get to the winners circle. Drops way down for Jacobson in search of the win. Lots of possibilities, but I’ll pass if he goes off anywhere near the 2/5 ML.

Race 6      5-9-6

Petrocelli has consistently good figures lately and is the longshot choice in this affair. Has the speed to take this group all the way.  Don Tito is nearly a 30% lifetime winner and Danny Gargan has been outstanding with first time claims. Lots of positives. War Hero goes first time for Jocobson and is looking for three in a row,

Race 7      2-3-5

Sunnysider is 15-1 on the ML but should go off much lower. Has the top last race figure and is making a drop in class for today’s start. Laghubaar also drops way down in search of a win for Jacobson. Broke his maiden in powerful fashion and has raced well with much better since then. Could be hard to keep out. Super Nicky is far and away the speed here and that makes him dangerous.

Race 8      6-3-7

Slan Abhaile is probably better suited for the sprint distance. Abby Adsit has been good second off the claim. Definitely has the figures to compete here. Doc Almon ran well last out in a restricted stakesand before that was running very well. We’ll see if the switch to the main works in his favor. Sky Commander was claimed last out by DiPrima and gets Irad for this trip. At the top of his game but has a tall task today.

Race 9      8-7-1

Charitable is racing third off a layoff and second time for Jason Servis who has been having a great 2015. Hidden Warrior ran well after a troubled start last time and improves with a clean trip. Prime Time City has the best last out figure and should be in the scrum up  in the front.

Big card today, and there are a lot of competitive races, including the Wood Memorial.

Race 1      6-5-2

Domer is the dominant speed in this race and improved when finding a fast track. He’ll have another one today. Party On finally broke his maiden but his first against winners isn’t going to be as easy a task. Eight Cents is 9-5 on the ML and 1 for 20 lifetime. He’s more likely as a vertical play.

Race 2      3-1-6

Smokem’s Charm was strong in the summer of 2014 but didn’t find success on the inner. He gets CC Lopez and that should help him ration his speed. Brass Pear is the likely favorite and he fits well here, especially on the return to state-breds. They’ll have to catch him. Free Mugatu has not seen the winners circle in a while but definitely has the figures to be competitive.

Race 3      1-2-5

The entry of Ekhlaas and Malad looks strong for McLaughlin. Defined goes first time for Chad Brown who is solid with debut runners. So Clutch has a good workout pattern for his debut.

Race 4      3-8-4

Gold Shield broke his maiden last out despite a troubled start. Castellano takes the call. Winter Games has been in top form since his return to the races and should be one of the front end battlers. Pax in Terra gets Pletcher’s DH jock in Rosario but has been competitive with this sort.

Race 5      6-10-8

One Sided failed as the favorite last out but it was a good learning race for him and he does have the top figure. Rectify ran very well first time out, a pattern trainer Mott is not known for. Should improve today. Fallfire faltered badly in the mud last out but although it is his fifth start it is only his third against non winners. Another with a competitive number.

Race 6      4-2-5

Sassicaia has been close in most of his career starts and runs well fresh. Workouts suggest he is ready. Matterhorn was a well-thought of 3 year old. His 4 year-old debut was likely just for conditioning and he should up his game today. Juba should be close early and he is competitive off his maiden victory.

Race 7      3-6-4

Moneyinyourpocket is todays longshot pick. The 6 year-old has deceptively good figures and should be able to sit in the garden spot. Longfor the City puts the blinkers on for Brown and switches to Irad for this affair. He’s been strong on the training track and fits well with this group. Ostrolenka was set to be a good one after winning impressively at BEL, but failed in two graded stakes attempts. He’s back where he belongs.

Race 8      5-4-7

Condo Commando is the speed and class of the field. No reason not to expect another top performance. Wonder Gal comes off a long rest after finishing close in the BC Juvenile Fillies. She looms the main threat to CC. Noble and a Beauty looked superior winning the Cicada and a 3 year-old on the improve is always dangerous.

Race 9      3-1-8

The Bayshore (G3) is loaded with talent. The two top runners are Ready for Rye, who won the Swale in dominant fashion, and Lord Nelson, who finished behind Derby contender Dortmund last out. Both look like quality runners and this may help define where the three year old power really exists this year. Majestic Affair has been competitive in minor stakes and looks to take a big step forward here.

Race 10   5-6-1

The Wood Memorial (G1) came up a little weaker with the injury to Far From Over. All of the preps are tough to assess because trainers do not want to see their horses have a taxing effort before the Derby. This is exactly what it is billed as – a prep. El Kabeir comes off a very impressive Gotham win and we’ll see if he sticks with his new tactics today. Daredevil finished second in the Swale to the aforementioned Ready for Rye and looks to make a return to the winners circle in a Grade 1. Tiz Shea D made a race of it in the Gotham and with some improvement could be the upsetter.

Race 11   6-7-3

The Carter (G1) has some of the better sprinters on the east coast slated to go. Palace is back after a mid pack finish in the BC Sprint. He almost never runs a bad one and his works should have him ready for the seven furlong distance. Wild Dude is the West Coast invader. Bejarano comes in to ride him and that is a positive sign. His numbers say he belongs in this group. The Big Beast is exactly that and after picking up a purse earlier this year at OP, he’s looking to make his win streak five. He’s got the talent to do it.

Race 12   11-5-4

Writingonthewall has to overcome the outside post but has plenty of speed and plenty of backstretch to find position. Dominant off his best. Finding Candy is taking a good sized drop in price. He was much more competitive on the AQU main than on the inner and a return to last year’s form would give him outs. Candyman E gets a new trainer in Abby Adsit and she is good first time with a horse. He’s another dropping substantially. Has some nice works in prep for this comeback.

The switch to the main track hasn’t substantially upgraded the fields or their size. But I’m back on track, so to speak, with selections.

Race 1      6-2-4

The first of a few six horse fields. Myrtlerose faded badly on a muddy surface she clearly didn’t care for. Abby Adsit trains better than her 16% win rate suggests. Two nice works in the last two weeks. Letsgotovegas drops out of MSW for new trainer David Cannizzo. She’s had a couple of bad starts and with a better luck could show her talent. Ferzetti has a second on the AQU main and  was looking promising until she hit the inner. Plenty of potential here.

Race 2      5-4-6

Bit Bustin should be the clear front runner and has been good at the distance. Rock N Cozy is making a good size drop in price today. The 2 for 36 record is not inspiring, but she does have better than 50% in the money. Missy Bay won last out and has a good chance to pick up some pieces.

Race 3      3-5-6

Salisbury Knight has some back figures that would dominate this field. Bad break last out means the race can be discarded. Mach Seven has been at the condition a while but has been knocking at the door. Hampden Fiveone seems to be more interested in finishing in the money but has won two of his last three. Like it when horses figure it out.

Race 4      3-4-1

Sherifco has the best lifetime figure and drops for Nevin who is 27% first time with a horse. Onthecurve has a second on the main. He had trouble in his last and should improve today. Thomas Knight has three seconds in three lifetime starts and goes first time for the 9% Contessa.

Race 5      6-4-5

Jazzminegem hasn’t finished out of the money for a year. No reason to expect less than a first rate effort today. Here’s Zealicious has been racing with better and has a 40% win rate. Sacred Success is another that has been consistent but hasn’t been seen for 10 months

Race 6      7-9-2

Dot Product is only making her third start and looks to be improving. Last race she had trouble at the start but still ran decently. Don’t Blame Her ran much better than looked after being off 10 months. Her best three year old figure would top this field. Agate is a nine start maiden that won last out but was DQ’d. Don’t really like the ML price but still has plenty of outs.

Race 7      6-4-3

True Blue Nation was claimed last out by Danny Gargan who has been spectacular in 2015. Despite the jump in class she looks to be a contender. Live Love Laugh has been off since November but has been competitive with theses. Last race has been a key race with thee next out winners. Breach of Duty didn’t run for Toscano first after the claim but he has been sparkling in 2015. First two from the last race have already repeated.

Race 8      2-1-4

Captain Serious won his last out and is capable of stringing them together. He’s got the best speed and the best figures. Dan’s Gold has a win on the AQU main and has been in good form lately. The 10-1 ML could prove very tempting. Saratoga Snacks has been competitive with much better and finally broke back into the win column last out.

Race 9      7-9-1

Astron has lacked courage in the stretch but still figures fastest in this group. Brooklynville goes first time as a gelding, takes the blinkers off and switches trainers. Perhaps all that will signal improvement today. Canoe Club gets the rail and looks to parlay that into a winning trip.

I was a little irritated to see the 9th race a lower priced maiden claimer. NYRA should do better than a $16K NW2L claimer, a state-bred NW1X ALW, a $30K MCL, and a $10K claimer for the late Pick-4.

Race 1      7-5-8

Grand Strand came close at this same level a month ago. A little bothersome he hasn’t seen the training track since then. Still, he has two races on the inner dirt that are faster than anything else in this race. He’s placed at the right level. Ausable River has been effective at the distance and is moderately competent on the inner. Rene Araya has not had a good winter meet and jockey Fernando Jara is limping along at around 8% but the horse does seem to be rounding decently into form. At 12-1 he’s worth a look. Born in Brooklyn finished behind Grand Strand and Can’t Catch Me Now after a long, sustained drive. Off his best he’s competitive here.

Race 2      4-3-2

Yes for Success ran well first time out in December on the inner against the next out winner Perchance. His sire, Yes It’s True, was a top grade sprinter and Yes for Success looks to be in the same mold. He may get outrun by one of the first timers, but of the starters he looks best. Speightsfire is very well bred for the sprint distance and has a good workout pattern. Jose Ortiz takes the mount and that is a positive. Repartee has a workout pattern I like – short, quick works early and stamina works later.  McLaughlin is better than average with firsters and he gets the services of top rider Irad Ortiz.

Race 3      1-3-6

Ohgma was the interesting horse in this race. He’s normally a front running type and this race isn’t loaded with speed. He had been racing a bit over his head but the drop down to $12500 made him a lot more courageous in the stretch. He’s placed right here and should be competitive today. Van Fraassen has an interesting pattern lately – good race, dull race, good race. He’s strung them together before, and he does have the top number here, so it would be unwise not to consider him, but this is the off race in the pattern. Shot to Win has done well on the inner and is the other speed in this race. He another competitive off his best.

Race 4      5-4-2

Aireofdistinction puts the blinkers on today and is well-placed in this stakes. She has a nice tracking style and competitive figures. She already beat a couple in this field his last out in the Interborough. Isabelle is riding a three race win streak, the last two on the inner. She has the high figure in this race, and has some back figures that would dominate this field. Mamdooha is only making her sixth start, but all but the first have been winning ones. McLaughlin should have her ready to fire off the year vacation.

Race 5      4-8-10

Our Posse puts the blinkers on for Gustavo Rodriguez for his second start. In his first start he broke from the outside, stayed wide and held steady in the stretch. With a better trip he looks tops in this field. Afleet’s Edge drops slightly for this race. He was another one wide around the track and should do better today with the experience. Wild Ham is looking for a win in his fourth start. Blinkers seemed to help him last out and he figures competitively in this group.

Race 6      6-2-3

Global Positioning has shown good speed in his last three starts, but has had some trouble sticking in the stretch. He looks more apt at the sprint distance and won the last time he was on the inner. Jose Ortiz was aboard him for that win and is back aboard today. Lots of things to like. Drama King ran evenly in his first start on the inner against state-bred stakes runners. His numbers are the same as a few in here, but improvement may be more likely in his case. All Is Number broke his maiden impressively on the inner in December and faded a bit when he was stretched out. He’s back at the sprint distance today and should have something to say at the end.

Race 7      2-1-5

Mineral Water closed from well off the pace last out, a change since he has normally shown a pressing style. That was first off the claim for Barbara, a good sign. He’s had decent success on the inner. Eight Cents has finished second three times in a row, the last one only a nose behind Hampden Fiveone. He’s been running consistent figures and they are good enough to get him a win here. Ice Wagon was claimed last out by Jeff Englehart, who had a decent 2014. At 12-1 ML he’s the interesting horse.

Race 8      9-7-6

Huge Asset ran well first time on the inner turf. He started awkwardly, rushed to the front and gradually gave it up in the stretch. He hasn’t had a bad race since last July and looks to turn the tables on Sea Raven today. That horse came from off the pace, actually took the lead at one point but was outfinished for the win. Been in the money both of his inner dirt starts. Repent Twice has never run out of the money. This test is an upgrade over the FL races so we’ll see just how good he is.

Race 9      2-3-6

Moonlight Party has been knocking at the door a while and drops to his lowest level ever in search of a win. His last was also his first on the inner and a little bit of improvement gets him first to the wire. Hollywood Angel actually breaks from the rail. Blinkers on should help him avoid any distractions from the horses outside him. He’s got enough speed to get a good attacking spot and has a figure competitive with these. Onthecurve just missed his first on the inner at this level. He had trouble at the start in his last and never really got into the race. He switches to the Nick Esler barn for this one, and Esler is fair with first off the claim .

Race 10      10-4-6

Duke of the City is five for 15 lifetime and one of two on the inner. He’s got plenty of tactical speed and fits well at this level. His last would dominate this group. Solly’s Mischief hasn’t been out of the money since last May and has been running consistent figures. He’s run well no matter who has been the trainer, hasn’t been out of the money on the inner, and hasn’t been out of the money at the distance. Could be the value at 8-1 ML. Love to Run should be the horse to catch. He’s done well on the inner and likes the distance.

Not a great card today. A couple of races where it din’t look like any horse could win.

Race 1      4-5-3

Very bad field. Raelyn Jane has only seven starts and only one since July. Eligible to improve. Bella Fachi is not a horse that likes to win but has hit the board in half her races. Stage Name was claimed by Contessa last out and that may be enough to catch the winners circle.

Race 2      3-8-6

Run a Dubb Dubb ran well last two times she was dropped to $20K. Brigetta was claimed by Levine last out off a winning performance and returns at the same level. Keep Bustin drops price in half and is better than 50% in the money.

Race 3      5-3-2

Star of the Forest has been no worse than third since being claimed by Grusmark and should keep running today. Taylor Jagger has had success on the inner and is another that looks to be on top of her game. C C’s Pride makes his first start for Levine after two months off and has been with much better in the recent past.

Race 4      8-2-5

Ghost Ship drops out of a MSW into this $40K claimer. He made his debut at today’s level, and that race has a better number by far than any other horse. Louie’s Luck showed a big closing kick last time in a sprint and should be running in the stretch against this cheap field. El Grillo just missed last out and is one of the RuRod runners in the care of his brother Gustavo.

Race 5      2-9-3

Party On has two second place finishes and looks primed to break through today. Repentful had a delayed start last out and improvement is expected today. Fidelius is making his first start for the hot Weaver barn since being gelded. May be a prep for something longer, but he has good sprint breeding.

Race 6      4-12-8

Darn That Trip ships in from Parx. Has good front running ability and Irad to take the mount. My One Love hasn’t run a bad one in a while and should get the good tracking trip. Jazzminegem is another with a series of good races. Puts the blinkers on for Linda Rice.

Race 7      8-6-12

Glickman is a horse with physical issues, but if he goes he is faster by far than any other horse. Don Tito makes a huge drop for Linda Rice. He’s over 30% win in his career. Cay to Pomeroy should be the speed and has had success at this level. Mop Head gets a nod in case of a scratch.

Race 8      7-2-5

Atlantic’s Smile has good speed and just missed in the Broadway last out. Switches to Franco for this trip. Make the Moment was moving well late in the Broadway and has competitive figures. Misszippityslewda is a lightly race five year old for Jacobson and fits well in this group.

Race 9      2-12-1

Delightful Erin faded badly in her last but goes for new trainer Abby Adsit today. She’s been good with first off the claim. Alice and Trixie drops for Contessa and has figures good enough to be a winner here. Single Malt Female followed Is She Hot last out, finishing second a city block behind, but she has been competitive at this level.

Sometimes I feel like the Grinch watching all the Who’s down in Whoville incessantly happy and dancing when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Oh, the Derby is a good thing on balance for horseracing. People who could care less about horseracing the other 364 days of the year will faithfully spend time watching, and maybe even betting, the so-called “most exciting two minutes in sports.” But it also the most overrated two minutes in racing. It’s a race for three year olds, and not necessarily even the best of the three year old crop. Trust me – if you think that is heresy, it is only because you have been programmed from birth by endless newspaper articles and over the top TV ads to see the Derby as America’s premier racing experience. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Think about the 2014 Derby. The only horse of the top ten Derby finishers that was in the BC Classic at the end of the season was California Chrome. Bayern, Toast of New York and Shared Belief were non factors in May, but they have all finished ahead of Chrome since the Derby. What does that tell you?

I’ve often used the analogy of high school. Three year old race horses in May are the equivalent of high school juniors and seniors. Remember how there was one guy who was already having to shave every day? A girl that could have passed for twentysomething? Same with thoroughbreds. Some of them are physically ahead of the others, but just like with high school eventually everybody catches up. That’s why they run the Breeders Cup in November.

So what is the relevance of all this? The hype associated with the Derby causes it to be weighted too heavily when assessing which horse should be the champion. But as I said above, on balance the Derby is a good thing for racing.

This week the Derby picture started to come into better focus. Here is my take at this point in no particular order.

El Kabeir ran a strong race in the Gotham. In that race he switched styles, changing from a front runner to a closer. There are two negatives with El Kabeir – the Gotham field was not particularly strong and there is still the spectre of Far From Over‘s convincing victory in the Withers. El Kabeir comes close to the breeding I like to see in the Derby, with dosage points in the first four categories, well distributed, but perhaps a little too biased toward speed. He remains of interest, but I’ll withhold a final opinion until his last prep.

Dortmund received fawning praise for his San Felipe victory. I have a feeling he is this year’s California Chrome – the horse people become emotionally involved with. He tops most of the current Derby lists and may be the most impressive physical specimen of the contenders. He is the horse with the look of the man among boys.  His breeding is good – he’s by a Derby winner – and his overall profile is close to what we would look for in Derby winners. But I’m not totally sold on the horse yet. I thought the San Felipe was a good race, but the field was not powerful. I’m not sold on the front running types in the Derby – notice how El Kabeir decided to change styles in the Gotham – mainly because some no chance trainers look forward to having their horse leading the Derby at some point and could compromise other speed horses. I’d like to see Dortmund win his next prep from off the pace. I also thought Dortmund drifted a bit, which may have been due to the lack of competition as much as anything. He’s another that I’ll have a better handle on after the SA Derby.

Carpe Diem ran well in the Tampa Derby, especially considering it was his first race of the year. This year’s edition of the Tampa race probably had the best field it has seen. If I was forced to pick the leading contender, this would be the horse. He has plenty of stamina on both sides of his pedigree, and on dosage has most of his points in the classic category. I like the two prep road – he should come to the Derby loaded. I have high expectations for this horse, but of course, like the others, I’m waiting to see the final prep before getting any more excited.

Upstart won the Fountain of Youth but was disqualified, losing the Oscar for “best performance by a jockey who wasn’t going to win anyway” to Itsaknockout. His pedigree is shaded toward shorter distance, although he wouldn’t be a total surprise in the Derby. Trainer Violette seems to not have a definitive plan for Upstart and that’s a bit bothersome. At this point, he’s not on my list of serious contenders, but that could change after the final preps.

The aforementioned Itsaknockout did not look all that impressive finishing second in the Fountain of Youth. Based on his pedigree, I like him a lot more as a Belmont contender than a Derby contender. He’s another that could move up based on his final prep.

Texas Red has been sidelined with a foot abcess. As a rule of thumb, horses that miss training at this time of the year are usually crossouts in the Derby. I’m passing on the horse at this point.

Far From Over won against style in the Withers. He stumbled at the break, losing six lengths or so, fell well back of front runners El Kabeir and Classy Class, and closed furiously to win going away. According to Mike Watchmaker of the DRF, he was miles the best in that race. I’m not quite as sold. He rode the golden rail while El Kabeir was wide on both turns, and I thought El Kabeir was not all out in the stretch. Regardless of the Withers, the horse is beautifully bred for a triple crown run. He’s already shown both front running and closing ability and should have no problem with the mile and a quarter distance. At this point he’s the dark horse to watch.

American Pharoah is making his debut in the Rebel this weekend after missing the BC Juvenile due to injury. I have two issues. I’m not thrilled about the late debut, although it’s not wise to spend a lot of time second guessing Baffert. Mostly, he doesn’t have the kind of breeding I’m looking for in the Derby. He seems more speed oriented, and while he’s marginal for me at a mile and a quarter, we’ll see how he runs in his preps.

Far Right has gotten mention on Derby lists off his closing victory in the Southwest Stakes and his impressive run in the Smarty Jones. He’s another one I’d prefer in the Belmont – he seems bred more for the distance – but with a perfect trip a Derby win is not out of the question. . His Southwest victory was not dominating – he got a perfect ride from Mike Smith – although his other victory against winners in the Smarty Jones showed a stout ability to close. He’s another one I’m holding off on evaluating until after the Arkansas Derby.

I’m going to do something a little different today. In addition to the full card at Aqueduct, I’m going to do the Coast to Coast Pick 4, including the Gotham, Tampa Bay Deby, Santa Anita Derby and the Palm Beach.

Palm Beach PT 4:30

Night Prowler looks to stay unbeaten in his three year old season after winning the Dania Stakes at 7 1/2 on this turf two months ago. He’s shown marked improvement from his two year old campaign, and a forward move today should prep him nicely for the better three year old stakes to come. Croninthebarbarian won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile last September and has been trying to find the winners circle again ever since. He was solidly beaten by Night Prowler in the Dania, and came back to finish third to Dubai Sky in the Kitten’s Joy three weeks later. In that race he was the only one of the top horses to show any close, and that gives him a bit more interest. He’s shown decent talent and consistency – just not a real pattern of improvement. Eh Cumpari only lost the Kitten’s Joy by a length and a half. That was his first race on the turf. He settled mid-pack, swung wide and looked to close in the stretch, making up a length. The pace was not killing in that race, and really no horse other than Croninthebarbarian closed any better. Given he still has space to improve, I’ll give him a reasonable chance at taking the whole thing down today. The fourth place finisher in the Kitten’s Joy was Felifran. He was another that pretty much stayed in his spot in that almost merry-go-round race.

Picks: Night Prowler, Eh Cumpari, Croninthebarbarian

Gotham PT 4:50

There is a lot of potential in the Gotham, and this race should start to clear out some of the pretenders to the Triple Crown. The ML favorite is El Kabeir. He looked awesome in the Jerome, winning powerfully by almost five. He came back odds-on in the Withers and despite taking the lead in the stretch he was passed by Far From Over in deep stretch. Far From Over stumbled badly at the break, was about 11 lengths behind going down  the backstretch and made an eye-popping close to win the race. Still, El Kabeir was impressive. He went widest of all around the clubhouse turn, engaged with Classy Class down the backstretch, and eventually put that one away under what looked like a vigorous hand ride in the stretch. I had the feeling watching it that C C Lopez was not going to punish the horse to try to make the wire first, and his effort overall was impressive. Classy Class really had an ideal trip and was unable to keep El Kabeir at bay. He can perhaps be excused since it was his first trip in 10 weeks, and his first on the inner. Still, he showed courage in the duel with El Kabeir, and perhaps with improvement he turns the tables. Todd Pletcher has three horses entered, two of them coming out of maiden races and one a second place finish in an OC $75K at GP. Dontbetwithbruno broke his maiden on his third try with a trip where he dueled with Jack O Liam and barely hung on to beat the early trailer, Money Multiplier. Jack O Liam faded badly in that one, flattering Dontbetwithbruno. Uninfluenced is still eligible for maiden races, and perhaps Pletcher is being a bit ambitious here. Still, he’s pretty much at the same number as his two stablemates and taken together they form and interesting triad. Blame Jim hasn’t gone two turns yet, but should have the breeding to make the trip. We certainly haven’t seen the best from any of them, and that gives them the potential to make a big improvement here. All three of the Pletcher runners look to have the same style, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or two scratch.

Picks: El Kabeir, Classy Class, Pletcher Entry

Tampa Bay Derby PT 5:23

Four horses are coming out of the S F Davis. Ocean Knight won the race and was probably most impressive of the four. He broke from the 11 post, was wide all the way, and closed with heart to win by a neck. He’s had five weeks to recover from the race and has three works in between, so a bounce shouldn’t be an issue. What I’m not sure about is whether McLaughlin has confidence in him as a potential Derby starter. Offhandedly, I’d guess that he is a cut below the best in his age group, but I think that would mean he’s going to gun for this purse, get the important points and make a subsequent decision on the Deby. He’s listed at 2-1 on the morning line, and that would be a lot lower if not for the presence of Carpe Diem. The Pletcher trainee has been on break since finishing a distant second as the favorite to Texas Red in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. In that race he broke well back and had to swing wide coming out of the turn. I like that Carpe Diem’s figures from his two year old races are nearly as high as the Davis runners were from five weeks ago, and improvement is likely today. He is clearly best horse in the race, and the only thing that keeps him from winning is Pletcher’s interest in not overtaxing or peaking the horse too quickly before the Derby. It would be no surprise to see him run mostly on his own courage and that may be enough to beat this group. Divining Rod had the lead for most of the Davis, and held stubbornly in the stretch to finish second. He was challenged in that race by third place finisher My Johnny Be Good. The two of them had to have comprised each other to some degree, and  there is no reason to expect a different scenario today. That may have been different with the presence of Super Colossal, but he scratched after spiking a fever earlier in the week. Ami’s Flatter finished second in the Mucho Macho Man at a mile at Gulfstream, then finished fourth in the Davis. He gets first Lasix today AND puts the blinkers on, and perhaps that will make a difference in his performance. He’s really the only one that has some sort of X factor and for that reason I’ll put him in as the longshot that makes the vertical bets.

Picks: Carpe Diem, Ocean Knight, Ami’s Flatter

Santa Anita Derby PT 8:17

This race is is dominated on paper by Shared Belief. Other than the Breeders Cup where he was compromised at the start, he has done nothing wrong. He beat the 2014 Horse of the Year in California Chrome in the San Antonio last out, and he did it impressively. There isn’t much you can say negative about the horse. People looking for something to knock point to the horse’s diminutive stature and the fact that he hasn’t had a long break since picking up his career last May. Small horse, regular race schedule – maybe it has taken a lot out of him. There was another diminutive horse that people looked to knock on physical grounds as well – Northern Dancer – and there were very few better horses in history. Shared Belief has something not many thoroughbreds, even some good ones, have – an undeniable drive to not be beaten. He showed that in the Malibu and again in the San Antonio. But let’s say Shared Belief’s last ten months of racing have taken something out of him, and a mile and a quarter under high weight is too big a hill to climb. Who wins the race? Moreno, the second choice, is coming off an ankle injury and surgery to repair it. His game is going to the front and staying there, but his game has not been going a mile and a quarter. When he won the Whitney he had a clear lead on a pace that wasn’t killing, but that was at a mile and an eighth. He’s been caught in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Woodward, and even the Pimilco Special, a sixteenth shorter than today’s distance. Everyone knows about his Breeders Cup Classic debacle. Moreno seems like more of a stab than a solid play. Bronzo may be the more interesting horse. He’s won at a mile and a quarter and only has three races in America. His last in the San Antonio showed improvement, and while he doesn’t beat Shared Belief if that one is at his best, he’s got a legitimate shot to make the top three. Hard Aces was bought and trained specifically for this race, and perhaps that makes him more of a danger than he looks just examining the PPs. He was a winner last out in the Louisiana Handicap, and had one useful work since he’s been at SA. Just because the owners are serious doesn’t mean the horse is going to win, but it is an interesting angle. The other horse that interests me is Dynamic Sky. He really seemed to find himself on the turf last year, and he was in against some good ones. He didn’t take to the Santa Anita turf, and the move to the dirt may not be that desperate. He’s won on the dirt and he won’t have any trouble going a mile and a quarter. He’ll be my longshot consideration.

Picks: Shared Belief, Bronzo, Dynamic Sky

Aqueduct March 7

Race 1      7-4-1

This is a competitive bottom level claimer. Springcourt is a veteran of the claiming wars, and like a lot of these he has trouble cracking the winners circle. He was claimed last out by Mike Miceli for $20K, and his last race he ran well after having some trouble at the start. He won for $25K as recently as October and has stayed competitive through three different trainers. He’s 0 for 7 on the inner – that’s a strike against him – but given he’s raced with better recently, I’ll see what odds he goes off. Summit County was claimed last out by Gustavo Rodriguez, the brother of the suspended Rudy Rodriguez. He immediately engaged the services of Jose Ortiz, a big upgrade over Dylan Davis. Should be interesting to see whether Gustavo can continue his brother’s run. Maximus Mike has a two race win streak on the line and is 2 of 3 on the inner. He’s only had eight starts, three of them win. He’s moved through his conditions with the low level claimers, and while he’s likely not the soundest horse on the grounds, if he holds together he’s got plenty of outs.

Race 2      2-4-5

Face the Race has been hanging around at the NW2L level for a while now, although that puts him in company with a number of the others here. He has no races at the distance, but has shown speed in route events, perhaps making him dangerous as a closing sprinter. Most of his races have been on the turf, but he has shown some ability on the dirt. It’s not a great race, and he is 10-1. Worth a look in my opinion. Sunlover puts the blinkers on today. He’s another that has had most of his success (so to speak) on the lawn, but he’s dropping in half in claiming price and has some of the better numbers in the field. Kodiak Kody has a second and a third on the inner and is best suited for the sprint distance. He’s another with the numbers to finish on top.

Race 3      6-4-5

Storied Lady has shown a great affinity for the inner, winning a state bred stakes in December. She’s likely to press early, and has had good success at the distance. She’s easily the fastest runner in the field, and with Ortiz staying for the ride has some hard to ignore positives. Holiday’s Jewel won an OC $62 in late December, but seemed a little over her head in the Ladies Handicap. Still, this isn’t a high quality field and she has a chance to be one of those battling to the wire. Evening Show has done well in optional claimers and should be part of the scrum up front. She’s got the numbers and the talent to be a factor.

Race 4      5-6-3

Salutos Amigos is the powerhouse in this field. Since the Bold Ruler last October he has been at the top of his game, losing the BC Sprint by only three lengths, but winning the Fall Highweight, Gravesend, and Toboggan stakes since then. He’s two for two on the inner and should win on inherent talent alone. Maleeh has been knocking around in OC $62K. However, he has shown a great liking for the inner and has some great numbers. Dads Caps gave Saludos Amigos a run in the Toboggan and the Gravesend and was second in the Vosburgh last September to the talented Private Zone. He’ll have to be at his very best to down Salutos Amigos.

Race 5      2-11-(14)-4

This low level state-bred maiden presents a tough handicapping puzzle. Song Brook is a first time starter for Robert Barbara. She sold for almost ten times the stud fee, so it a little concerning that she debuts at almost a third of her selling price. She has some great gate works and although you’d expect a horse with good potential to start at a higher level, this field has more than a few horses that haven’t shown much at all. Dulce de Leche has a lot of speed but hasn’t been able to finish. Of the prior starters she may be the one with the most talent, but until she gets over the faintheartedness, I’m hesitant to use her on top. Miss Bellamy has been looking for a spot and if she draws in, she may be the one to beat. Kool Charli is another of the multi-start maidens with good numbers and in the money finishes, but lacking that final drive.

Race 6      5-2-6

La Bella Valeria has been competitive at this level and seems to enjoy the inner dirt. She should be winging on the lead, and wins off her best race. Verismilitude is another well suited for the distance, the track, and the level. She seems to be the main competition on the front end for La Bella Valeria. Charlton Baker has had a good winter at AQU. Champagne Ruby was competitive in state-bred stakes in 2014 and seems to be rounding back into form for Linda Rice.

Race 7      6-9-2

This tough maiden event should be an interesting race. Fallfire came close to breaking his maiden at FL in August, and then went in two tough state-bred stakes. He’s shown good speed and and against a slightly softer bunch he could wire the field. Elusive Talmo is going first time for Schosberg, who hasn’t done exceptionally with debut horses, but can certainly step up. I like the workout pattern and I like the breeding for the dirt sprint. Shore to Party debuted on the turf and didn’t show much. She came back against a monster in Lehigh Five, although that race could be excused somewhat given the trouble at the gate and being wide. He gets a long look today.

Race 8      1-9-2

Lady Luciano won a $50K open starter last out, so stays eligible for this condition. She’s shown an affinity for the inner and is well suited for the mile distance. She should be pushing up front and looks strong off her best race. Understanding broke her maiden and came right back to just miss at this level. She was in a conditioned allowance at Laurel last out and ran respectably. The move to this level at AQU makes sense and she may give the top choice everything she can handle today. Unrepented has been running competitive races on the inner, but has had some trouble clearing the whole field. Perhaps the switch to Gullo after the claim gets the horse over the top.

Race 10    8-4-2

Rock N Cozy is an interesting horse. She has been suffering from a tendency to finish in the money but not win. Obviously the horse has talent, but has a proclivity to let another horse take the top spot. She was claimed two back by Abby Adsit, and I’m hoping this creates a turnaround. In her last race she got the comment, not ready for break. The jockey was making an adjustment when the gates opened, but the horse got out pretty well. In the snowstorm she showed modest interest early but shut things down and galloped home. She’s dropping to the lowest claiming price she’s seen in a while, and perhaps the combination of the drop and the switch to Adsit does the trick. Reckless Move won her NW2L after being grabbed by Sciacca and moves up to the next condition. She fits the race and has the figure to compete. Elmra has shown plenty of front running ability but has not been courageous in the stretch. The drop to $25K may be what she needs to succeed.

Today has a a series of very competitive races and almost every race has a full field. The effects of the weather are apparent as trainers scramble to find any spot for their under-raced charges.

Race 1      1-4-3

Thug Daddy is rapidly approaching professional maiden status but has the numbers to be in the mix. Roman Magic is a two start maiden, which I like. His last was on a sloppy track, but he ran into a buzz saw that day. I’d like him a lot more if he had better than a 1 for 55 trainer and a 1 for 24 jockey. Robert Noble is dropping in price and was second at this level last out. Tough to come up with three after the scratch of the 2.

Race 2      6-8-1

Shotgun Love ran a bang-up race first time out for Schettino, just missing in a good time. She looks like the best speed and the only question is whether she will be able to hold it all the way home. Stonely Heart just missed in the same race as Shotgun Love and has run well fresh previously. Should be a major contender. Hatta’s Appeal is 20-1 ML but did show some interest against the two above. With some improvement she could be part of the finish.

Race 3      9-3-6

Warm Heart won her maiden at a $25K tag, and drops down to near bottom level claiming today. She seems well suited to the mile distance and likes the inner. Missy Bay drops down for Schettino in search of her second win. She should be running mid pack and if she’s got any steam in the stretch she’s the danger. Raelyn Jane also drops after running with slightly better at FL. Chris Englehart is good with layoff runners, although she’s going to have to show a lot better than she did last season on the inner.

Race 4      4-8-9

Marvino stumbled out of the gate last out and never ran a step. Prior to that he ran a dueling second at GP. He’s got a good style and his numbers compare favorably with the others in here. Astron  was second last out, well ahead of third place finisher Norman’s Hero. Gullo has done well lately and is having a spectacular winter meet. Mizner Park is dropping way down for Contessa and it looks like the right move. Last out a bumping incident at the start caused the jockey to lose the whip and while he pressed the pace for a while, he had no finish at all. He hasn’t flourished on the wet tracks and perhaps a drier surface will help. The switch from Manny Franco to Wilmer Garcia isn’t inspiring but there are a lot of other positives.

Race 5      2-4-7

Colonel Juanita was reclaimed last out by Danny Gargan who is quietly having a successful AQU meet. She’s one of a group that has the numbers to win the race but she may have the best combination of speed and close. Matching Skies should be the front runner here. She hasn’t run a bad one in a while and has shown a definite liking for the AQU inner. Pura Vida Zen was grabbed last  out by Steve Klesaris. She has competitive figures and Klesaris is dynamite first off the claim.

Race 6      2-7-5

Percussion drops slightly in claiming price in search of a  win for Todd Pletcher. He’s shown lots of front running ability. He’s been running with better retricted stakes runners and seems to have a liking for the inner. The down side is that he hasn’t found the winners circle in over a year. If the track isn’t being kind to speed, he’s definitely up against it. Divine Child goes for the hot Jason Servis. Divine Child has won at a 25% clip and he’s looking for two in a row. Lieutenant Seany O drops way down in search of  win. He should be able to press today and is the best closer in the field.

Race 7      4-8-3

S’maverlous has had all his success on the inner. He ran a good second last time in his first out in almost a year. Should handle the stretch out with no problems. Doc Daneka won his maiden by a city block last time and jumps up today. We’ll see if he is as good as his maiden looked. Inca Saint has been consistently in the money but has had trouble cracking the winners circle. His last was his best since being grabbed by Bruce Brown and with some improvement perhaps he finds his way home.

Race 8      10-8-5

Loki’s Vengeance goes for the Mike Hushion barn. Given Hushion’s hospitalization we’ll make him the sentimental favorite He’s been effective in state-bred stakes and should be fine in this allowance condition. He’s been off three months but has been effective fresh before. Frisky Warrior goes for the tag for D’Allessandro. He was off three and a half months and ran an even race against a few of the others in here. At 20-1 I’m giving him a long look. Green Gratto would be a little more interesting to me if David Smith was not training. His last was good in the slop, but he’s been short in his races for a while now. Possible but not a sure thing by any means.

Race 9      3-9-2

Savant was buried by the talented Doc Daneka last out but wasn’t far behind second place finisher Fictionalcharacter. Given he only has three starts improvement is more likely than for the other contenders. Mangold was squeezed at the start and raced greenly in his first out. He was bet a little in that one and Bruce Brown is fair with second time maidens. Worth a look at 12-1. Fictionalcharacter is a ten start maiden who is usually in the vicinity at the finish. Looking for a field that he can finally beat.

Given all the cancellations at AQU, it’s been hard to discern who is in form and who has mostly been watching TV and eating oats. Hopefully we’ve turned a corner and we’ll have some consistency.

Race 1      1-3-6

Pulpit’s Express is dropping to the bottom level after showing poorly at the $32K level in his last two. He has some potential excuses – he stumbled at the start two back and brushed at the start and raced wide in his last. But if he lost those last two because of troubled trips, why give the horse away today? Jacobson is not above dropping a horse to get a win, but this looks more like giving up. He was more of a turf horse in California, but he wasn’t much better than a mid-level claimer there. If he wins the race I’m not surprised, but he won’t get my money. Holy Invader is certainly no better than a $10K claimer these days. His last two have been a little better than looked, and he does have better recency than some of these. Lubango has a nice pressing style but seems to be having problems getting to the wire first. He would be no surprise at all. Solly’s Mischeif has been popular at the claiming box lately. Gullo took him last out for $16K and drops him to his lowest level. He’s been consistent and is another with the numbers to win this race.

Race 2      5-2-8

Miss Lucky Lauren goes second time for Bruce Brown. She had no chance last out from a wide position and she won’t get bet much today coming out of a MCL event. I think the last race was a good learning race and she’s a little better than looked. I’m willing to take a chance that Brown is moving her up for good reason. Papa’s Missile lost his chance at the start and should be better today. Naughty Grace is the horse with the most experience and that may be enough for her to get a piece.

Race 3      3-7-5

Prime Time City has plenty of early foot. He was off from June to February and expectedly faded. He should improve today and in condition his numbers top this group. Hidden Warrior is making the big drop for Linda Rice. She made this move yesterday and the the horse threw in a thoroughly disappointing performance. You’ll get odds on here – think it’s a good bet? No Nukes is 0 for 6 on the inner and 1 for 23 lifetime, but did make a big close last out. A minor piece is possible.

Race 4      4-1-8

Suckitupbuster was in the chasing position – got by all but the winner and stayed on with some courage. Finished with a good number and should be the main danger today. Both in the Bruce Levine entry are dropping out of MSW and that may be enough to propel one of them to victory. Rockjaz was gelded since his last out. In his first start he had all kinds of issues – he hit the gate and was five wide around the turn. He was snatched out of that race by Scott Schwartz who hasn’t had a great meet, but the combination of the the ultimate equipment change and the trouble first out make him interesting at 10-1 ML.

Race 5      2-6-4

As much as I dislike putting Brass Pear on top, he’s got the speed, the finish, Ortiz and a three race win streak. He’s flourishing under Nevin’s care. Round gets ths services of Junior Alvarado and Mott has been able to keep the horse working steadily. He doesn’t have an inner start but he definitely fits in this field. Chapman just missed last out. He loves the inner and Englehart is almost 50% in the money this meet.

Race 6      7-4-9

Bet U Can’t Find Me had a great 2014 at FL with 12 of 16 first or second.  Her first on the inner this year was an even effort and she was grabbed by Dennis Lalman  off that effort. Lalman has been good with limited runners. She’s competitive at 12-1 here. Coast of Sangria is a win sort. Her last race on a sloppy track was a good effort and the drop back to $16K should help. Tarty to the Party was claimed last out by Jason Servis who is 32% first off the claim. Given his last was his first start off a layoff, and he’s got a maintenance work inbetween, he’s worth a look.

Race 7      8-4-5

Flag on the Play just broke his maiden and returns at a reasonable $35K for is NW2L race. He had shown some seconditis, but now that he’s figured out the win formula I like the potential to repeat. Cornelio stays for the ride. Super Nicky just missed to the talented Awesome Lute last out and should be the front runner here. He’s shown he can stay to the end. Street Gent showed good speed last out and drops way down today. He’s not been at this distance in his life, but may have the class to win today.

Race 8      2-5-8

Son of a General is looking for two in a row and is jumping up substantially to do it.  He’s had some success on the inner but there is some concern about a bounce. Still, a repeat puts him right in the mix. Classic sense is looking for three in a row. He hasn’t finished worse than second in seven months and has been perfectly handled by Chad Brown. Doesn’t stick out on figures but does on heart. Wealth to Me ships from Laurel to the inner. In nine races he has only finished out of the money once. Cornelio is familiar with the horse. He’s got plenty of outs.

Race 9      1-2-4

Wild Freud is starting to look like a money burner but he is the fastest horse in the race. I’ll give him another chance. Wild Ham puts the blinkers on today. He took a bad step at the start of his last and although he wasn’t going to beat the top two he held off the rest of the field. Cash Buyer moves from an open $25K MCL to a state-bred. I like his chances a lot better with this group.

Lots of favorites yesterday and a couple of the better priced horses just didn’t catch my eye. Looking for some good prices today.

Race 1      7-6-1

March Too is dropping out of a ALW NW1X after easily winning at the $25K level. Irad takes the mount for Linda Rice and that probably signals serious. He’s listed as the favorite and deservedly so. First Ranger has a good turn of foot and probably is placed at the right level here. He beat a few of these last out and no reason to expect the tables to turn today. Money Machine had some trouble last time at the $50K level. Should be in a good spot turning for home.

Race 2      6-1-2

Jackie Black won by an incredible 35 lengths last out. That may have been as much a reflection of the field as her ability. Still she got a number that stands out in this field and if she is that good she is a winner again. Golden Gem is listed as the ML favorite off a second in the Franklin Square. Has a couple of good works since that race and gets the services of Jose Ortiz. In Spite of Mama has been knocking around at the OC $75K level with moderate success. Her figures are similar to some others in here, but she does have good tracking ability and some promise to move in the stretch.

Race 3      9-1A-3

Chairman Now is almost a 25% winner lifetime. He had been off close to two months, came out on the inner and led for a half before backing up to fourth. He’s had some success at the mile distance and has the good front running rider Chuck Lopez up.  At 10-1 he’s worth a look. Snake Pit is the fastest horse in the race but will have to have some luck to draw in.  His stablemate Duke of the City has plenty of front running ability but may have a lot of other speed to fend off. Love to Run beat a similar field last out and may be the speed of the speed.

Race 4      6-3-1

Culminating was claimed last out by Bruce Levine and returns at the same level today. She’s stretching out but should be well-suited to the distance. Downton Alley showed good speed when stretching out for the first time and hung on for third. She drops slightly in claiming price today but faces a few horses that may push her a bit too much up front. Real Deal Lady ran into monster winner Jackie Black last out so it is difficult to tell just how good she is. She gets Lasix today and a slight jockey upgrade to Jeremy Rose.

Race 5      7-1-2

Amulay has been consistent for a while now and finally got an extended break. Should help her today. If she runs to her best figure she should roll over this field. Lady Gracenote won at the $40K level two back but didn’t scare a state-bred ALW group last time. She tends to be close but hasn’t been cracking the winners circle too often. Agawa just missed at this level last out and has the numbers to be competitive here.

Race 6      6-9-2

Battle Notes ran well first out and should improve with the experience. Full of Mine is coming out of the same race as Battle Notes and actually finished closer to the winner. It may be those two slugging it out to the wire. Ziggy Moondust adds blinkers today. Has the numbers and should benefit from a the longer trip last out.

Race 7      3-5-8

Lulu Rocks came back on the inner after a two month hiatus and ran a nice second at the the same distance and level. He’s got three good works since and should be ready to roll. Decesion Point had a lot of success last year at FL and Pennsylvania and has two thirds in two starts on the inner this year. In his last he broke outwardly and stayed wide throughout but finished a decent third. Mighty Zealous finished second in that race after leading most of the way. He had a clear lead in the stretch in that one and still got beat a length. He’s held on previously, and that gives him a chance.

Race 8      8-10-2

Tonite Tonite takes the blinkers off for this one. He stumbled at the break last out and while no horse was beating the winner, Qui C’est Moi, the stumble probably cost him a better placing. At 8-1 I’ll give him the nod over this field. Wishandaprayer was second in that race after prompting the early pace. He held his speed a little better in that start and perhaps will improve enough today to finish on top. Billypaysthebills should be one of the front runners but he hasn’t showed the most heart in the stretch.