I’m going to do something a little different today. In addition to the full card at Aqueduct, I’m going to do the Coast to Coast Pick 4, including the Gotham, Tampa Bay Deby, Santa Anita Derby and the Palm Beach.
Palm Beach PT 4:30
Night Prowler looks to stay unbeaten in his three year old season after winning the Dania Stakes at 7 1/2 on this turf two months ago. He’s shown marked improvement from his two year old campaign, and a forward move today should prep him nicely for the better three year old stakes to come. Croninthebarbarian won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile last September and has been trying to find the winners circle again ever since. He was solidly beaten by Night Prowler in the Dania, and came back to finish third to Dubai Sky in the Kitten’s Joy three weeks later. In that race he was the only one of the top horses to show any close, and that gives him a bit more interest. He’s shown decent talent and consistency – just not a real pattern of improvement. Eh Cumpari only lost the Kitten’s Joy by a length and a half. That was his first race on the turf. He settled mid-pack, swung wide and looked to close in the stretch, making up a length. The pace was not killing in that race, and really no horse other than Croninthebarbarian closed any better. Given he still has space to improve, I’ll give him a reasonable chance at taking the whole thing down today. The fourth place finisher in the Kitten’s Joy was Felifran. He was another that pretty much stayed in his spot in that almost merry-go-round race.
Picks: Night Prowler, Eh Cumpari, Croninthebarbarian
Gotham PT 4:50
There is a lot of potential in the Gotham, and this race should start to clear out some of the pretenders to the Triple Crown. The ML favorite is El Kabeir. He looked awesome in the Jerome, winning powerfully by almost five. He came back odds-on in the Withers and despite taking the lead in the stretch he was passed by Far From Over in deep stretch. Far From Over stumbled badly at the break, was about 11 lengths behind going down the backstretch and made an eye-popping close to win the race. Still, El Kabeir was impressive. He went widest of all around the clubhouse turn, engaged with Classy Class down the backstretch, and eventually put that one away under what looked like a vigorous hand ride in the stretch. I had the feeling watching it that C C Lopez was not going to punish the horse to try to make the wire first, and his effort overall was impressive. Classy Class really had an ideal trip and was unable to keep El Kabeir at bay. He can perhaps be excused since it was his first trip in 10 weeks, and his first on the inner. Still, he showed courage in the duel with El Kabeir, and perhaps with improvement he turns the tables. Todd Pletcher has three horses entered, two of them coming out of maiden races and one a second place finish in an OC $75K at GP. Dontbetwithbruno broke his maiden on his third try with a trip where he dueled with Jack O Liam and barely hung on to beat the early trailer, Money Multiplier. Jack O Liam faded badly in that one, flattering Dontbetwithbruno. Uninfluenced is still eligible for maiden races, and perhaps Pletcher is being a bit ambitious here. Still, he’s pretty much at the same number as his two stablemates and taken together they form and interesting triad. Blame Jim hasn’t gone two turns yet, but should have the breeding to make the trip. We certainly haven’t seen the best from any of them, and that gives them the potential to make a big improvement here. All three of the Pletcher runners look to have the same style, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or two scratch.
Picks: El Kabeir, Classy Class, Pletcher Entry
Tampa Bay Derby PT 5:23
Four horses are coming out of the S F Davis. Ocean Knight won the race and was probably most impressive of the four. He broke from the 11 post, was wide all the way, and closed with heart to win by a neck. He’s had five weeks to recover from the race and has three works in between, so a bounce shouldn’t be an issue. What I’m not sure about is whether McLaughlin has confidence in him as a potential Derby starter. Offhandedly, I’d guess that he is a cut below the best in his age group, but I think that would mean he’s going to gun for this purse, get the important points and make a subsequent decision on the Deby. He’s listed at 2-1 on the morning line, and that would be a lot lower if not for the presence of Carpe Diem. The Pletcher trainee has been on break since finishing a distant second as the favorite to Texas Red in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. In that race he broke well back and had to swing wide coming out of the turn. I like that Carpe Diem’s figures from his two year old races are nearly as high as the Davis runners were from five weeks ago, and improvement is likely today. He is clearly best horse in the race, and the only thing that keeps him from winning is Pletcher’s interest in not overtaxing or peaking the horse too quickly before the Derby. It would be no surprise to see him run mostly on his own courage and that may be enough to beat this group. Divining Rod had the lead for most of the Davis, and held stubbornly in the stretch to finish second. He was challenged in that race by third place finisher My Johnny Be Good. The two of them had to have comprised each other to some degree, and there is no reason to expect a different scenario today. That may have been different with the presence of Super Colossal, but he scratched after spiking a fever earlier in the week. Ami’s Flatter finished second in the Mucho Macho Man at a mile at Gulfstream, then finished fourth in the Davis. He gets first Lasix today AND puts the blinkers on, and perhaps that will make a difference in his performance. He’s really the only one that has some sort of X factor and for that reason I’ll put him in as the longshot that makes the vertical bets.
Picks: Carpe Diem, Ocean Knight, Ami’s Flatter
Santa Anita Derby PT 8:17
This race is is dominated on paper by Shared Belief. Other than the Breeders Cup where he was compromised at the start, he has done nothing wrong. He beat the 2014 Horse of the Year in California Chrome in the San Antonio last out, and he did it impressively. There isn’t much you can say negative about the horse. People looking for something to knock point to the horse’s diminutive stature and the fact that he hasn’t had a long break since picking up his career last May. Small horse, regular race schedule – maybe it has taken a lot out of him. There was another diminutive horse that people looked to knock on physical grounds as well – Northern Dancer – and there were very few better horses in history. Shared Belief has something not many thoroughbreds, even some good ones, have – an undeniable drive to not be beaten. He showed that in the Malibu and again in the San Antonio. But let’s say Shared Belief’s last ten months of racing have taken something out of him, and a mile and a quarter under high weight is too big a hill to climb. Who wins the race? Moreno, the second choice, is coming off an ankle injury and surgery to repair it. His game is going to the front and staying there, but his game has not been going a mile and a quarter. When he won the Whitney he had a clear lead on a pace that wasn’t killing, but that was at a mile and an eighth. He’s been caught in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Woodward, and even the Pimilco Special, a sixteenth shorter than today’s distance. Everyone knows about his Breeders Cup Classic debacle. Moreno seems like more of a stab than a solid play. Bronzo may be the more interesting horse. He’s won at a mile and a quarter and only has three races in America. His last in the San Antonio showed improvement, and while he doesn’t beat Shared Belief if that one is at his best, he’s got a legitimate shot to make the top three. Hard Aces was bought and trained specifically for this race, and perhaps that makes him more of a danger than he looks just examining the PPs. He was a winner last out in the Louisiana Handicap, and had one useful work since he’s been at SA. Just because the owners are serious doesn’t mean the horse is going to win, but it is an interesting angle. The other horse that interests me is Dynamic Sky. He really seemed to find himself on the turf last year, and he was in against some good ones. He didn’t take to the Santa Anita turf, and the move to the dirt may not be that desperate. He’s won on the dirt and he won’t have any trouble going a mile and a quarter. He’ll be my longshot consideration.
Picks: Shared Belief, Bronzo, Dynamic Sky
Aqueduct March 7
Race 1 7-4-1
This is a competitive bottom level claimer. Springcourt is a veteran of the claiming wars, and like a lot of these he has trouble cracking the winners circle. He was claimed last out by Mike Miceli for $20K, and his last race he ran well after having some trouble at the start. He won for $25K as recently as October and has stayed competitive through three different trainers. He’s 0 for 7 on the inner – that’s a strike against him – but given he’s raced with better recently, I’ll see what odds he goes off. Summit County was claimed last out by Gustavo Rodriguez, the brother of the suspended Rudy Rodriguez. He immediately engaged the services of Jose Ortiz, a big upgrade over Dylan Davis. Should be interesting to see whether Gustavo can continue his brother’s run. Maximus Mike has a two race win streak on the line and is 2 of 3 on the inner. He’s only had eight starts, three of them win. He’s moved through his conditions with the low level claimers, and while he’s likely not the soundest horse on the grounds, if he holds together he’s got plenty of outs.
Race 2 2-4-5
Face the Race has been hanging around at the NW2L level for a while now, although that puts him in company with a number of the others here. He has no races at the distance, but has shown speed in route events, perhaps making him dangerous as a closing sprinter. Most of his races have been on the turf, but he has shown some ability on the dirt. It’s not a great race, and he is 10-1. Worth a look in my opinion. Sunlover puts the blinkers on today. He’s another that has had most of his success (so to speak) on the lawn, but he’s dropping in half in claiming price and has some of the better numbers in the field. Kodiak Kody has a second and a third on the inner and is best suited for the sprint distance. He’s another with the numbers to finish on top.
Race 3 6-4-5
Storied Lady has shown a great affinity for the inner, winning a state bred stakes in December. She’s likely to press early, and has had good success at the distance. She’s easily the fastest runner in the field, and with Ortiz staying for the ride has some hard to ignore positives. Holiday’s Jewel won an OC $62 in late December, but seemed a little over her head in the Ladies Handicap. Still, this isn’t a high quality field and she has a chance to be one of those battling to the wire. Evening Show has done well in optional claimers and should be part of the scrum up front. She’s got the numbers and the talent to be a factor.
Race 4 5-6-3
Salutos Amigos is the powerhouse in this field. Since the Bold Ruler last October he has been at the top of his game, losing the BC Sprint by only three lengths, but winning the Fall Highweight, Gravesend, and Toboggan stakes since then. He’s two for two on the inner and should win on inherent talent alone. Maleeh has been knocking around in OC $62K. However, he has shown a great liking for the inner and has some great numbers. Dads Caps gave Saludos Amigos a run in the Toboggan and the Gravesend and was second in the Vosburgh last September to the talented Private Zone. He’ll have to be at his very best to down Salutos Amigos.
Race 5 2-11-(14)-4
This low level state-bred maiden presents a tough handicapping puzzle. Song Brook is a first time starter for Robert Barbara. She sold for almost ten times the stud fee, so it a little concerning that she debuts at almost a third of her selling price. She has some great gate works and although you’d expect a horse with good potential to start at a higher level, this field has more than a few horses that haven’t shown much at all. Dulce de Leche has a lot of speed but hasn’t been able to finish. Of the prior starters she may be the one with the most talent, but until she gets over the faintheartedness, I’m hesitant to use her on top. Miss Bellamy has been looking for a spot and if she draws in, she may be the one to beat. Kool Charli is another of the multi-start maidens with good numbers and in the money finishes, but lacking that final drive.
Race 6 5-2-6
La Bella Valeria has been competitive at this level and seems to enjoy the inner dirt. She should be winging on the lead, and wins off her best race. Verismilitude is another well suited for the distance, the track, and the level. She seems to be the main competition on the front end for La Bella Valeria. Charlton Baker has had a good winter at AQU. Champagne Ruby was competitive in state-bred stakes in 2014 and seems to be rounding back into form for Linda Rice.
Race 7 6-9-2
This tough maiden event should be an interesting race. Fallfire came close to breaking his maiden at FL in August, and then went in two tough state-bred stakes. He’s shown good speed and and against a slightly softer bunch he could wire the field. Elusive Talmo is going first time for Schosberg, who hasn’t done exceptionally with debut horses, but can certainly step up. I like the workout pattern and I like the breeding for the dirt sprint. Shore to Party debuted on the turf and didn’t show much. She came back against a monster in Lehigh Five, although that race could be excused somewhat given the trouble at the gate and being wide. He gets a long look today.
Race 8 1-9-2
Lady Luciano won a $50K open starter last out, so stays eligible for this condition. She’s shown an affinity for the inner and is well suited for the mile distance. She should be pushing up front and looks strong off her best race. Understanding broke her maiden and came right back to just miss at this level. She was in a conditioned allowance at Laurel last out and ran respectably. The move to this level at AQU makes sense and she may give the top choice everything she can handle today. Unrepented has been running competitive races on the inner, but has had some trouble clearing the whole field. Perhaps the switch to Gullo after the claim gets the horse over the top.
Race 10 8-4-2
Rock N Cozy is an interesting horse. She has been suffering from a tendency to finish in the money but not win. Obviously the horse has talent, but has a proclivity to let another horse take the top spot. She was claimed two back by Abby Adsit, and I’m hoping this creates a turnaround. In her last race she got the comment, not ready for break. The jockey was making an adjustment when the gates opened, but the horse got out pretty well. In the snowstorm she showed modest interest early but shut things down and galloped home. She’s dropping to the lowest claiming price she’s seen in a while, and perhaps the combination of the drop and the switch to Adsit does the trick. Reckless Move won her NW2L after being grabbed by Sciacca and moves up to the next condition. She fits the race and has the figure to compete. Elmra has shown plenty of front running ability but has not been courageous in the stretch. The drop to $25K may be what she needs to succeed.