Race 1      4-3-6

Karenina Gal goes first time for Violette who is an amazing 42% with first timers. Yeah, the horse was a cheap purchase and the workouts are not eye catching, but they are steady. Worth the look at 10-1. Shoot the Moon didn’t run well in his debut on the BEL mud, but switches to Nevin who is 29% first time with a horse. Hot House Rose had trouble in her first start and didn’t take to the turf in her second, but looks fast enough to compete with these.

Race 2      9-6-11

15-1 ML Thunders Fury is my longshot play here. He has decent turf numbers and drops into MCL. Maybe a stretch, but I’ll give him consideration. Cuppa Joe has been consistent but is still looking to break through. The numbers say competitive. Balfe’s Corner is another dropping into MCL. He’s had some trip excuses in his first three on the turf and the switch to Saez may be what he needs to get over the top.

Race 3      4-2-3

Two Weeks off is looking to continue through his conditions for Pletcher. Conquest Curlinate showed immense talent with his off the pace run last out. Madefromlucky is coming off the ARK prep races into a softer group.

Race 4      1A-5-2

The McLaughlin coupling of Via Strata and Wedding Toast looks very tough here, with the 1A looking to be the better of the two. She’s coming off a couple fof graded runs and has the best last out number. Princess Violet has been with the best of her generation, and beat the 1A last time. Talented runner with every right to win this one. Shayjolie is a hard trying filly with a lot of success at BEL. Dangerous off her best.

Race 5      5-6-9-8

Colonel Juanita has been a popular claim for the last few months and has been consistent. Trail Walker drops her price in half in search of a win. Competitive figures. Wise Awake had an amazing 2014 as a nine year old, but hasn’t quite picked up in 2015. Still can throw in a good one. Darling Bridezilla is far and away the speed and needs to be given a look.

Race 6      4-9-3

Chunnel ran good first time off the layoff and should improve here.  Madam I’m Adam comes off a long layoff for Linda Rice and if he is in condition figures to be a factor. Pep the Champ is one for one on the BEL turf and is another that is a factor off his best.

Race 7      7-2-6

Discreet Marq comes from CA and off a good run in the Matriarch. She’s 4 of 7 on the BEL turf and he numbers dominate. Tough call between the 1 and 2 here for me, but I decided to go with the Radiator. She looked very good in winning her stateside debut and Mott is 35% second off the move from Europe to the U.S. Testa Rossi won the Miss Grillo as a 2 YO at BEL and has been sticking at the graded levels for Chad Brown. Off her best she’s dangerous.

Race 8      1-5-3

Global Positioning looks like the 6 1/2F distance is perfect. Has the best last race figure. Dean Verdile looked good breaking his maiden at AQU and has come back with a sharp work. Rectify broke his maiden second time out for Mott. It’s not unusual to see Mott horses take time to break their maiden but once they do they can run through their conditions.

Race 9      1-6-4

The Man O War has a small but elite field. The choice is Imagining. He loves the BEL turf and is great at the distance. Age may be catching up with him, but he’s still dangerous. Hardest Core is making his first start since finishing in the middle of the pack in the BC Turf. Another well adapted to BEL. Twilight Eclipse has been in with the best turfers in America and doesn’t have Main Sequence to beat today. The only knock is that he hasn’t had great success on the BEL turf.

Race 10      3-5-12-9

Lone Trader is back on the turf where he ran his best races. Infinite Midnight goes first time for the always dangerous Chad Brown. That is reason enough to give him a look. Rock Eagle flew home in his first out and will probably be in that position again from the 12 hole.  Britannia’s Moat could be the speed here and almost held to the wire last out. Another who might make a vertical bet.

Race 1      3-4-2

Back At the Ranch ran well first out and should have more stamina. Sombree ran into a monster in his KEE debut but it was a useful race. Feistyloulabelle has a big bullet in his penultimate work.

Race 2      4-2-5

Coast of Sangria loves BEL – 5 wins in 7 starts – and has the best figure. Da Wildcat Girl has been popular as a claim and winds up in the Imperio barn for this one. Another that likes BEL. Matching Skies ran a big one last time and is the best early speed.

Race 3      2-7-4

Live Love Laugh makes a big drop for Domino. Her one win was on the BEL dirt. Edith is better suited for the sprint and last race was better than looked. Don’t Blame Her goes for the hot Gargan barn is is the one to catch.

Race 4      9-3-4

Skye Saratoga is one for one on the BEL turf and that race was fast enough to beat this field. Magsamelia is the turf specialist in the field and has been knocking at the door. Ducify is the longshot possibility. She’s well bred for the turf and the distance and has competitive dirt numbers.

Race 5      3-8-6

Sheldon is coming off a series of graded turf races last year and has been breezing nicely. Roman Approval is 1 for 1 on the BEL turf and is coming out of some good races at GP. Belisarius is another coming off turf races at GP. He’s strong in the money; not as much for the win.

Race 6      11-1-7

I’ve been chasing Slan Abhaile for a while and I believe today is the day. If he runs his top he dominates the field. Pecorino is the best front speed and doesn’t fold when challenged. Distant Thoughts is the longshot prospect. Off his best he’s competitive.

Race 7      2-5-4-1

Jazzminegem hasn’t run a bad one in a while and is looking for three in a row. The obvious favorite. Caval comes off a strong win at KEE and was well enough thought of to be put in a graded stakes last year. The favorite and with some big positives. Equilateral has run her best races on the BEL dirt and the workouts say go. Irish Sweepstakes inherits the challenger’s spot after the scratches.

Race 8      3-4-2

Zandar came out in the Woodhaven for 2015 and ran evenly. That race should have put some condition in him. His one win came over the BEL turf. Takeover Target goes for Chad Brown. He broke his maiden last year in a time that would top this field. Definitely the danger. Face the Music comes in off a KEE race where he never got into the running. He’s a better horse than that and the switch to Javier should prove it.

Race 9      10-6-4

The finale is a confusing affair. I’ll go with Dacoma in the top spot. Wesley Ward is good with first timers and the turf and the workouts should have her ready. Natala goes for Gary Gullo, another good trainer of first timers and turf horses. She’s well suited for the distance. Stonely Heart has been struggling on the dirt but is better bred for the turf. I’ll give her one chance to show it.

Race 1      5-3-6

Mistaken Love has some good figures from her last two races on the turf. Her one dirt start was nothing special, but she did show a little bit of interest early in the race. Her breeding doesn’t really scream turf, and she should translate her recent form to the dirt. At 4-1 ML she’s worth a look. Eastern Rose just missed in her first start, and Shug is 27% second time out. However, at 3-5 she may not be the value we’re looking for. Calling Me Home improved on the AQU main and some improvement today makes her competitive.

Race 2      4-3-6-7

Luckysdream is the speed of the speed here, and will have to fend off Be Bullish at the front. Be Bullish is a win machine for Jacobson and takes a tumble in price in an effort to get number four in a row. Moonluck is the likely closer if the battle up front takes too much out of the leaders. At 20-1 I wouldn’t leave him out. With the 3 and 6 scratched I’ll put Love to Run in the back hole. He has a good BEL record and a top in his last race.

Race 3      1-3-2

Persuasive Devil was claimed last out by Abby Adsit. He’s in good shape and should have no issue with the distance. Groupthink is stuggling to get to the winner’s circle but he’s been competitive in most of his races. Repent Twice gets first Lasix despite looking pretty competitive without it. Fits the conditions and the distance.

Race 4      6-12-5- (13)

Mangold ran a good one on the turf last out and looks to be on the improve. Cody’s notes looked to be on the right track at SAR last summer before heading off to the farm for a break. Has the style of a turfer and should enjoy the distance. Jackson N Leonard is going first time on the turf and is dropping from MSW down to $40K MCL. I like the workout string for the return and at 20-1 he’s worth looking at for the backhole. Lotza Heat gets a nod if he scratches in.

Race 5      6-3-1

Dariel won going short at first asking and returned with a good race against winners. Gets a rider upgrade to bug boy Cruz. Partytime Chill tried the turf last out with no luck. Seems better suited to the dirt since that is where she gained her sole victory. Should be duking it out early, and may hang out given the price drop.  Saluda took 11 starts to break her maiden, and returned competitively against winners. Good pressing style and competitive numbers.

Race 6      4-6-3-2

Easy Feeling ships from France and has numbers that would be competitive with this group. Hasn’t gone the distance but certainly the breeding suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. Like the potential. Josdesanimaux is riding a two race win streak for Chad Brown. Is well bred for the distance and Chad Brown is dynamite with turf fillies. Path is a strong turf runner for McGaughey and gets a top turf rider in Javier Castellano. Diannestillworks is the RuRod contribution to the field and while she doesn’t have any turf race she’s been with better in the past and the breeding suggests the grass shouldn’t be a problem. At 12-1 she could make the verticals.

Race 7      3-1

Matterhorn goes for the still powerful Pletcher/Castellano coupling. He’s a deep closer in a field with not an overwhelming amount of front speed so he’ll need the set-up. That set-up could come in the form of a speed battle between Ship Disturber and Between the Lines. I’m going with Ship Disturber coming off the long layoff for Violette. I think he may be a little classier than the 4 and his works say ready to roll. He should be very well suited for the 7F distance. Peter Island just missed in his first against winners a year ago and McGaughy is decent off the long layoff.

Race 8      6-2-11

Whoopie Pie drops into a $40K claimer after a turf allowance last time out at KEE. He looked like he adapted well to the change in surface and some improvement today puts him right there.D’tumbling Dice ships up from GP. While the trainer isn’t inspiring, Johnny V taking the mount is. He fits. Sunny Puzzle stays at the same level but is competitive off his numbers. 12-1 could make some exotics.

Race 9      3-1-8

Nagging Gigee drops down from MSW and gets first Lasix. He broke poorly last out but showed some interest before backing out. He’s 30-1 on the ML and while you have to have a big dose of faith to play him, I think he’s worth exploring. Not About the Nail goes for RuRod and Irad Ortiz. and fits well with this group. Lemmesinaruba ran well at the shorter sprint distance last out at this level despite the troubles at the start. Very much fits with this group.

Usually the day after the Kentucky Derby is an off day for me. The incredible energy expended in the run up to the race leaves most of us feeling deflated. It was especially hard for those of us who were rooting against the eventual winner. The great thing about horseracing is that your horse can lose and you can still make a case for him winning. Frosted, my bet, was far back early and went wide trying to get back into the race, eventually finishing fourth. Whatever you want to say about the race the top three ran, there was no way anyone was going to close by horses of that class on a fair (not slow, not fast) pace. Joel Rosario left himself a lot to do to win that race, and ultimately it was too much. Was Frosted the best horse? That’s a topic for hypothetical argument because yesterday the only winning horse was American Pharaoh.

On the other hand, I feel great about the way I bet this race. I used my general 50-25-25 approach and made the following bets:

• $200 win Frosted
• $50 ex Frosted/Am Pharaoh
• $20 ex Frosted/ Dortmund
• $20 ex Am Pharaoh/Frosted
• $10 ex Dortmund/Frosted
• $4 tri Frosted/Am Pharaoh, Dortmund, Carpe Diem/ AP, Dor, CD, Firing Line
• $2 tri AP, Dor, CD/Frosted/AP, Dor, CD, Firing Line
• $1 tri  Frosted/AP, Dor, CD/ 8 horses

Total invested was $375. Had Frosted won the race with Am Pharaoh second and Firing Line third, I estimated my collection would have been $6,650. Not a bad day’s work. I believe I bet the race correctly for value, although if you wanted to argue the $72 exacta with Am Pharaoh and Firing Line at $72 was value I’d agree. But the tri was not a great bet and I will argue with you all day that Am Pharaoh to win was not a value bet. In any case, I focused my money on my opinion, and unless I was willing to spend a lot of money boxing around with the top five, I needed Frosted first or second. I’d argue it’s worth $375 to potentially win 17-1 most days.

So on to BEL. As I said, this is normally a day off, but for those who need some help, my picks are below.

Race 1      6-3-1

Race 2      2-1-4

Race 3      1-2-5

Race 4      7-2-4

Race 5      7-1A-4-6

Race 6      4-1-7

Race 7      2-6-5

Race 8      6-4-2

Race 9      5-3-1-10

It’s Derby day, but for those who can’t resist Belmont, here are today’s picks.

Race 1      2-5-1

Overawe improved when moved to the AQU main. Has the fastest last race figure and Chad Brown in his corner. Woodford Pine is the other Chad Brown horse and adds shades today. Seems to be on the improve. Apache Warrior is making his debut. The workout pattern looks promising and he looks built to sprint.

Race 2      4-6-3

In a race with a lot of question marks, Mish Mosh seems to be the solid turf horse. Been threatening to break through for DJ and today he looks to have a solid shot.  Non Stop has been popular at the claiming box and last time he was taken he returned to the Cannizzo barn. Cannizzo has had success with the horse before at this level and the horse has also had success at BEL. Attractive Ride is a solid veteran that usually runs a competitive race.

Race 3      1-5-2

Tug of War has been stuck in third place in 2015. Fits at the level and the figures say competitive, but you have to demand value. Rap d’Oro is not often far out of a race and has a figure that could easily win this race. Private Tale has a lot of back class and perhaps the shift to the Mike Maker barn will put him back on the winning track.

Race 4      1-5-4

Riposte has been competitive with graded company lately and is very tough at the distance. Rosalind ships over from SA for Chad Brown and comes off two nice runs in graded races. Beauty Parlor shipped over from France and had immediate success for Clement. Best last race figure by far.

Race 5      2-7-8

No Tunes has won at 6 furlongs but the mile seemed a bit of a stretch, Should be comfortable at 7 furlongs and unless one of the turf maidens shows major adaptability she should be in the mix at the end. Miss Loretta Lynn broke her maiden on the turf at BEL. Has had some issues staying, but looks competitive in this field. Jewelisa should be one of the horses coming at the end and is another with competitive turf numbers.

Race 6      1-4-2

The Westchester has a short but distinguished field. Tonalist is back after finishing behind a quality foursome in the BC Classic. He has some workouts that suggest he’s in good shape and should enjoy the mile trip. Palace Malice ended last season with a disappointing performance in the Whitney but prior to that may have been the best older horse in training. He’s been working well and it should be a great race between the top two. Speedball Juba gets the other nod because speed is always dangerous at one turn distances.

Race 7      9-8-12

Boston Strong comes out in 2015 as a gelding. He’s shown a liking for the BEL turf and has a good series of breezes for the 2015 debut. One Eyed Ray is another who won on the BEL turf and hasn’t embarrassed himself is restricted stakes. Chasintheblues improved substantially on the BEL turf last year.

Race 8      3-2-4

Native Hawk was on the verge on the inner, has worked well on the BEL training track. Tommy Macho did not break well in his last but closed strongly and is also working well. Fortuitous Path should be the clear front runner and may forget to stop.

Race 9      3-10-4

Pretension is riding a two race win streak and it would be five if not for a hiccup on the turf last October. Looks well placed and no reason to think he can’t repeat again. Tizquick has a win over the BEL surface and should improve over his last on the AQU main. Ostrolenka was well thought of as a three year old. Disappointed in the 2015 debut, but does have the speed and class to hang on.

Race 10   1a-6-3

This edition of the Fort Marcy brings together a good field headed by the Chad Brown entry of Big Blue Kitten and Hyper. Of the two Big Blue Kitten is the most accomplished. She’s won multiple grade one races, and while he hasn’t been quite the same since turning 6, he’s a still a dangerous competitor and he does some of his best running when fresh. Divine Oath was running decently for Pletcher at GP although he’s finding the going at 4 just a little tougher than at 3. His numbers have been consistent and he should be pressing the leaders in this group. If he gets first jump he’ll be tough to catch. Unbridled Ocean has run well at BEL in the past and has stepped up to Grade 3 with moderate success in the past. He’s as consistent as they come.

Race 11   1a-4-6

The Cheyenne Stables entry of Classy Class and Special Ops looks strong in this NW1X allowance. Classy Class has been with superior horses this year, losing to the likes of Carpe Diem, El Kabeir and Far From Over. His entrymate Special Ops is on the improve and seems well suited for the distance. Gridley Here has been a useful NY bred and while this represents a small step up his numbers suggest he would be competitive in this group. Gold Shield puts the blinkers on for Shug after finishing second at this level a month ago at GP. No reason to expect he won’t be in good shape and a player today.

Race 12   9-1-8

This card-ending sprint on the turf looks like a good spot for A Marked Man to finally break through.He seems much better suited for the sprint distance. The drop down last time was a bit of a tonic and Linda Rice is decent off the layoff. Fear is another that seems better suited for the turf sprint and this price level . He needs to go from the one post and that should help him control the pace. Abandon Ship is much better bred for the turf and the sprint distance. While he hasn’t showed much, he has a little speed. Admittedly a bit of a stretch but at 20-1 he could punctuate the day with an exclamation point.

Glad to be back at Belmont. That Aqueduct meet was like being in the galley of a Roman ship for six months and finally emerging to see the sunlight. Now the fun begins.

Race 1      5-6-1

Beatle Boots was claimed by Abby Adsit and returned on the AQU main in a mile race where he didn’t disgrace himself. I think his figures look best and the drop to $20K should help.  Astron is a seven race maiden with a couple of second place finishes. No reason he couldn’t find his best stride today. Larry Boy has been competitive at this level and is eligible to get a piece.

Race 2      3-6

McQuaid is the typical multiple time starter finally dropping intp the MCL ranks. While his figures don’t dominate they are tops in the group. He gets a shot to win on the drop, but he won’t get my money at 8-5. El Grillo inherits the place spot after the scratches of 4 and 5. Should be pressing the issue early and may hang on in this limited group.

Race 3      8-5-9

Amber Moning is the best of the turf specialists and seems to be on the top of her form right now. Has a win on the BEL turf and that is a plus. Might be better at the spint distance. Lady Kreesa is 5 for 5 in the money at BEL Finished third last time she was in a sprint. Donk is effective off the layoff. Sweetpollypurebred may be an underdog (tweet if you got that) but she’s been with better state breds and looks best at the sprint distance.

Race 4      7-4-1

Bert Stone had no chance last out when his jockey lost his irons. He’s got good early foot and off his best he’s competitive with this group. Oh Billy Boy is another making a big drop. He’s suspect except he’s got DJ in his corner. Can’t ignore but can’t back him with gusto. Francis Freud goes first time with winners and off a short layoff. Nevin is effective with that move. Figures say competitive.

Race 5      1-5-6

Canzoni is coming from GP in pretty good shape. Pletcher trainee has some figs that would crush this field. If he shows up he’s tough to beat. Cleancut Kid is well bred for the turf and the distance. Conway and De Diego are 3 for 10 together. Worth a look at 8-1.  Bigger Picture is another with a decided preference for the turf and competitive numbers. Rice is decent off the layoff and definitely improved the horse by moving it to the turf.

Race 6      3-2-6

Jc’s Shooting Star ran a good race against Tricky Zippy first out. Moves up in distance but breeding suggests that shouldn’t be a problem. Donk is good 2nd time maiden, sprint to route and routes. Lots of positives. Mohawk Lily perked up dropping back in price and moving up in distance. She’s back at MSW today but she is fast enough to compete with this group. Summon the Spirit has been on the improve. A little dicey on the turf but Jerkens has been having a great 2015 and that might be enough to put her in the mix.

Race 7      4-7-6

A P Johnson has plenty of early foot and is experienced on the turf.  Her one win came on the BEL turf. Given Fire is another with front running ability and competitive figures. Lisa Lewis is decent off the layoff and the horse shows ability to win after a vacation. Barrier to Entry was wide last out and lost any real chance to win. He’s got a win at the distance and a win on the BEL turf. Interesting thought at 8-1 ML.

Race 8      9-7-11

Angela’s Dream was a three time winner in Europe but hasn’t quite gotten on track here. Still, she’s in condition and may take to the sweeping BEL turf.  Might be the value at 5-1 ML. Venus de Milo should be prompting the pace. Maker is great on the turf and off the layoff. Looks tough in here. Bartiromo has a penchant for the BEL turf. Barbara is good off the layoff with a limited sampling. Competitive off her best.

Let me be clear up front. There is certainly more than one horse that can win this race. Unfortunately, at least one of them is unlikely to be bettable based on value. This Derby, for my money, this is as good a field as has been assembled for a few years.

For years Dosage ruled when it came to Derby picks. It is currently considered passe, especially since we’ve had five or so winners that fell outside the ideal dosage parameters. I don’t find it unimportant – it’s a piece of data like a Beyer figure, and must be used for what it is worth. The fault, if there is one in the dosage number, is that it overestimates the sire and underestimates the dam. One thing still resonates for me when it comes to dosage and that is having points in one of the stamina categories.

Another key point is that the best Derby horses have the following characteristics:

• ability to make a sustained run;
• push-button speed. This means the ability to accelerate at will;
• ratability. In other words, the ability to relax as needed;
• battle-tested. In other words, races where the horse has had to show some heart and toughness.

You want a perfect combination of those characteristics – Secretariat. Watch his triple crown races.

Horses rarely are able to win pressing a fast pace – and don’t kid  yourself, the Derby usually has a fast pace – and the ones who have done it have been against poor fields. That would not describe this year’s Derby. If you believe a horse is likely to be up front early, that’s a good reason to toss him.

Finally, horses with a good ability to close are must use in the back holes.

Let’s go through each of the starters.

1.  Ocho Ocho Ocho – Won a G3 at Delta Downs and finished third in his prep in the Bluegrass. He has one chance from the one post – gun out of the gate. He’s shown no real ability to go to the front and stay, and it is highly unlikely he is an influence in this race. Win probability – 1%

2. Carpe Diem – of all the contenders, he was likely hurt most by the post position draw. He’s another one that will almost be forced to fire out of the gate to get his position, most likely expending some precious energy in doing so. For that reason, of all the horses he is the one that suffered most in my opinion. He is memorable for his second place finish in the BC juvenile, but let’s face it – his two wins this year in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Bluegrass were not scintillating. He’s a horse with talent, and Todd Pletcher in his corner is always worth noting,. I’ll use him, but with less gusto than two weeks ago. Win probability – 12%.

3. Materiality – this is perhaps the horse that has generated the most separation of opinion. There are those who see his Florida Derby as a massive victory, especially considering he vanquished Upstart in that race. There are those who still adhere to the “curse of Apollo” and diminish his chances because he does not have enough two year old foundation. The time between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby is also of concern for a horse with so little foundation. I’m putting him in a secondary category. Win probability – 5%

4. Tencendur – he ran the race of his life in the Wood, but it was still not good enough. Given the assemblage of talent here, I can’t given him more than the nominal win probability – 1%

5. Danzig Moon – finished second to Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass. He really has little to recommend for me other than the potential to close. While I think he has no shot to win, I’ll probably have him in  a back hole. Win probability – 1%

6. Mubtaahij – My instinct tells me this horse has no real chance. Every year that a horse ships from Dubai someone thinks this could be the year, and this year is no different. Mubtaahij is thought to have faced better fields than previous runners, and while we know less about the dam side, he is bred to run all day on the sire side. He has a very low dosage and a stamina point. I’m not inclined to give him a high chance of winning, but he will be in the back holes in the exotics. Win probability – 5%

7. El Kabeir – did what you expect a good horse to do – beat the horses he is supposed to beat. While he started out as a front running sort, he switched styles to great effectiveness in the Gotham. The Wood, in my opinion, was a better than looked race. The pace was slow and El Kabeir looked very lazy in the early going. Once he got going though I thought he showed good ability. He’s not a win prospect, but he’s a must use in the back holes. Win probability – 5%

8. Dortmund – I can only think of one real knock on Dortmund – his three year old races were all won on the front end. That is not going to be successful in this Derby. If I could ask Baffert one question, it would be, how do you intend to run Dortmund? Otherwise, he’s brought the horse to the race in perfect form. He meets most of my criteria for a Derby horse, and more so than stable mate American Pharaoh, he has been tested in battle. Plus he has a win over the CD surface, and don’t discount the importance of that. If Dortmund lives up to his ability, he is a very dangerous horse. Win probability – 17%

9 Bolo – fast horse on the turf, an also ran in this race. He is in the group of horses that should have little to say in the outcome. Win probability – 1%

10. Firing Line – His claim to fame is a hard fought second to Dortmund in the R B Lewis. Truth be told, his walkover win in the Sunland Derby was not of much significance – he beat nothing in that race. He seems to be most likely to be part of the up front duel, which should compromise his chances. I’m going to be kind and give him a win probability – 5%

11. Stanford – He’s a Pletcher trainee and that is pretty much the best thing he has going for him. Win probability – 1%

12. International Star – He is a horse that looks like he improved enormously from 2 to 3 and he dominated the Louisiana preps. He has the style, but his breeding for the mile and a quarter is suspect. He’s a back holer for me. Win probability – 8%

13. Itsaknockout – Another where his biggest positive is Pletcher. He had no business being put up in the Fountain of Youth – in fact, neither he nor Upstart was going to win that race if Frosted didn’t flip his palate. I just can’t give the horse much more than the minimum chance. Win probability – 1%

14. Keen Ice – snuck in after a defection and you’d have thought a major injustice had been righted. I’m not seeing this horse having anything to say in the outcome. Win probability – 1%

15. Frosted – in my opinion, he is the horse with the highest win probability. Now, there is a little bit of faith involved in giving him the nod. He was beaten by Upstart in the Holy Bull and hit the wall in the Fountain of Youth. Was it lack of talent? Perhaps not. He was diagnosed with a common breathing problem, had corrective surgery and came back in the Wood to run a superb race. He has all the things you look for in the Derby horse -speed, stamina (he has a dosage point in the stamina category), and is almost certainly going to run to the best of his ability Saturday. Despite a slow pace in the Derby, he ran by Tencendur without being asked for his best. He is the one horse likely to be beat his odds and for me will be the win bet. Win probability – 18%

16. War Story – is coming out of the Louisiana Preps and looks up against it to me. Win probability – 1%

17. Mr. Z – one win in 12 starts. Enough said. He does not have the talent to beat this field. Win probability – 1%

18. American Pharaoh – whatever you thought might be his race strategy, once he got the 18 his strategies were limited. Most likely he’s going to bust to the front and run from there. He’s 5-2 on the ML. Why? He’s won his races easily, although the competition was limited. He has a bang up work at CD on Sunday, but if I had a dollar for every time Baffert worked a horse fast before a big race, I’d be basking in the dough. That work means Baffert horse more than super talent. He’s not well bred for the distance, so you’ll have to be a believer in the theory that he is a freak, likely to outrun that breeding. This horse is getting all the buzz, and there are plenty of strong opinions that he is the second coming of…California Chrome I guess. He’s a talented horse, but I’m playing the race that his breeding kicks in in the last eighth and he is at best slotted for a minor award. Win probability – 15%

19. Upstart – is a talented horse. The DQ in the FOY was criminal, but the loss to Materiality is of concern. The 19 post doesn’t help either. His breeding seems to suggest a preference for the middle distances. He just doesn’t have enough for me to make him a serious threat, but I’ll use him in some back holes. Win probability – 7%

20. Far Right – has the kind of closing kick that makes him a real in the money threat. He didn’t beat American Pharaoh in Arkansas, and has only beaten some of the lesser runners in here, but he’ll likely start slow, make his way through the field and try for a big run in the stretch. He’ll be in the back holes. Win probability – 8%

The throw-outs for me are Ocho Ocho Ocho, Tencendur, Bolo, Stanford, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, War Story, and Mr. Z. The low-win, but in the money prospects are Materiality, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Firing Line, International Star, Upstart and Far Right. The second tier win prospects are Carpe Diem and Ameican Pharaoh. The likeliest winners in my opinion are Frosted and Dortmund.

And my win bet will be on Frosted.

Race 1      2-6-3

Barrister Jim is a versatile horse, winning at the mid-distances as well as routes. He’s on a four race win streak, although the last race in the streak was almost a year ago. That’s not a great sign but he’s won fresh previously. Figures to be the speed and if he’s right, he’s the dominant horse. Chief Energy has been sliding down the claiming ladder but was only a length behind Percussion in his last. Given the odds difference, I’ll give the 6 a long look. Percussion hasn’t won a race in quite a while but he was good enough to finish third in last year’s Excelsior. He should be tracking the favorite and if that one falters he may have first run.

Race 2      2-8-6

Splendid Gold is not particularly well bred for the turf, but almost won his debut race on the green in an impressive time. If he takes to the AQU dirt he’ll be hard to beat. Magical Miss is the 8-5 ML favorite, and as far as I can tell the reasons are that she stumbled badly at the break first out and never had a chance. On the other hand she was almost 10-1 in that debut which means the crowd didn’t think she was a world beater. She may wind up being the best, but the odds aren’t going to be attractive. Zippa Tequila has three starts and all the races have been creditable. She lost by a nose with Irad in the irons and he is back aboard today. Good enough for me.

Race 3      6-9-3

This is a tough time of the year to handicap turf races since a lot of horses are coming off winter dirt races or long vacations. I’m going to favor horses that have shown some ability on the turf in their career. Despite the shaky connections, I’m taking a flyer with longshot Tree Fire. He had a couple of good races on the turf at a higher level at BEL last year, and you’ll notice he primarily ran his turf races without blinkers. A bit chancey, but at 12-1 he’ll get a look from me. Imawarrior was close last year at this level and has a useful series of breezes for his return. Hiddenite should be the pacesetter and has a little bit of condition due to his races on the inner.

Race 4      1-2-5

Salisbury Knight has the best last race number and figures off the drop in price. Empower is going first off the claim for Danny Gargan who has been having a mind-boggling 2015. No reason the horse can’t repeat. Can’t Catch Me Now always runs close and figures to pick up some of the pieces.

Race 5      8-5-6

Adirondack Posse has two strong races on the turf and based on his figures is the fastest horse in the race. Saez is having a good spring meet at AQU. Ack Feisty goes first time for Chad Brown. Brown is exceptional with first time turfers at a route distance and the workouts suggest the horse is ready for the big time. Raffles Bay has been working at breaking his maiden for a while, but off his best his figures say competitive. Worth a look at the long price.

Race 6      7-3-2

Bet the Power ran a very useful conditioning race two weeks ago after being off nine months. Switches to the hot apprentice Cruz for this trip and makes a significant drop in price. Could get back on the winning track here. Candyman E is about 30% lifetime wins and has been with much better in the recent past. Off his best he’s as fast as any horse in the race.  Carolinian is the best early speed in the race and it’s just a question of how far he will take it.

Race 7      3-10-1

Very tough turf race, made tougher by the fact that I’m not enamored with the ML favorites. Mr Rosenthal is 20-1 on the ML. Admittedly he is a little suspect as he approaches the wire, but he will be with the front runners and his single win last year came off a long layoff. Not a stickout top choice, but not one to ignore either. With Exultation is another that looked good first off the layoff, and Trombetta is good with that move. He always gives a good effort and the competent Jose Ortiz takes the mount. Blue Pigeon gets the final nod. He always seems to be in the mix at the end and while his numbers aren’t as high as some, they are consistent. Clement in your corner is a big positive.

Race 8      7-6-2

The Excelsior marks the return of the well-regarded Wicked Strong. He is the “name” horse in the race and will likely be every bit of his even money ML. He was beaten in his first race of the year at GP in a Grade 2 but ran creditably. With some impovement second time on the track, there is every reason to expect him to win. Red Rifle has been keeping graded company lately and is 1 for 1 at the mile and a quarter distance. At 10-1 he may be one of the value runners. Effinex should have no problem getting the mile and a quarter and has some current condition. Another longshot with better chances than his odds suggest.

Race 9      10-6-8

Killer Crossover never took to the GP turf and was gelded since his last. He drops in price and and looks to duplicate his turf runs from last year. The mild choice. With Expression should be up with the leaders and has consistent turf numbers. Competitive off his best. Frogman Mel should be running in the stretch and could snag a piece.

Race 1      4-3-1

Race 2      1-7-3

Race 3      1-4-5

Race 4      1/1A-5-7

Race 5      2-5-6

Race 6      2-3-1A

Race 7      2-4-5

Race 8      3-1-7

Race 9      4-7-1A

Race 1      1-4

Storied Tale goes for Wesley Ward who is lights out with youngsters. If he lives up to his early billing he should win the race. Usually the one post is difficult for young horses, so her success may hinge on her ability to get out. La Nina has a great set of works for her debut and Storm Cat’s can be precocious.

Race 2      6-3-2

Rivetto has been with better in the recent past and his last race was his best in a while. A similar run today gives him a big chance to win. Larrytheeducator comes out of the same race as Rivetto. He’s run consistent figures and should be the one running at the end. Charitable ran a good one last out and Jason Servis has been hot in 2015. Looks primed for his best effort.

Race 3      5-2-6

Consumer Credit won a G3 at Gulfstreat in January and finished a close second in the Florida Oaks. The class of this group. Pine Needles won his first two for Clement and comes into this one off a short rest. Nice maintenance works for the debut in NY. Colour Party ships over from Ireland, gets Lasix (of course) for his stateside debut. Clement is out of sight with Euro shippers.

Race 4      4-6-7

This race has no standout. Rambam perked up when moved to the main and should be in a good stalking position. To Erin Again has been close his last two and should be the speed of the field. Hung in the mud last out, but with a better track he may have a say at the wire. S S Dixie should appreciate the cutback in distance and looks like he is peaking on his form cycle..

Race 5      6-8-9

William’sluckygray scratched out of an event yesterday to go in this spot, now off the turf. Has the best early speed in the group and competitive numbers. Despite the 1 for 19 record, I’m willing to give him a shot. Knacque looks like a turf horse, but has a wet track win on the dirt. Looks to be in shape and considering he was an MTO I’d have to think she was well meant if the race switched to the dirt. Fiery Cat just broke her maiden on a sloppy track and looks competitive for the first time with winners.

Race 6      9-1A-8

Be Bullish drops down to a $25K claimer after beating a slightly more expensive field. Steady series of works for this one and best last out figure. The RuRod entry both show high early speed so it would make sense to scratch one. Still, either is going to be a front running factor. Carolinian looked to be the better of the two, but The Big Deluxe has had plenty of success with better than these. Smokem’s Charm drops down for Charlton Baker. He’s been running consistently and has a good shot against these.

Race 7      3-7-4 (1)

Beyond the Green certainly has the name to be a winner here. He goes with winners for the first time but based on the figures he should prosper at the higher level. Swivel raced well first out against winners and should be rolling in the stretch. Bullheaded Boy has been with much better and should be competitive here. The MTO Fleeting makes it into the race and has the best numbers in the field. A real danger on the dirt.

Race 8      6-5-7

Accomplish First looks for four in a row, although the first three were 10 months ago. Dilger has been super bringing horses back off the long layoff and the horse has shown he can win off the vacation. Here’s Zealicious is 11 for 28 lifetime although lately he’s been having some trouble finding the winners circle. Still, he fits well and has competitive numbers. Bar of Gold looks for his third in a row but would have to improve some to beat this field.

Race 9      2-5-6

Devilish Grin gets fist Lasix and should benefit from the switch to Cruz. Wild Ham should like the distance and is improving each race. Kerry Boy obviously didn’t care for the mud and he’s a little bit of a stab, but the works say he is better than he showed last out. Worth a flyer perhaps.