Race 1      2-6-3

Barrister Jim is a versatile horse, winning at the mid-distances as well as routes. He’s on a four race win streak, although the last race in the streak was almost a year ago. That’s not a great sign but he’s won fresh previously. Figures to be the speed and if he’s right, he’s the dominant horse. Chief Energy has been sliding down the claiming ladder but was only a length behind Percussion in his last. Given the odds difference, I’ll give the 6 a long look. Percussion hasn’t won a race in quite a while but he was good enough to finish third in last year’s Excelsior. He should be tracking the favorite and if that one falters he may have first run.

Race 2      2-8-6

Splendid Gold is not particularly well bred for the turf, but almost won his debut race on the green in an impressive time. If he takes to the AQU dirt he’ll be hard to beat. Magical Miss is the 8-5 ML favorite, and as far as I can tell the reasons are that she stumbled badly at the break first out and never had a chance. On the other hand she was almost 10-1 in that debut which means the crowd didn’t think she was a world beater. She may wind up being the best, but the odds aren’t going to be attractive. Zippa Tequila has three starts and all the races have been creditable. She lost by a nose with Irad in the irons and he is back aboard today. Good enough for me.

Race 3      6-9-3

This is a tough time of the year to handicap turf races since a lot of horses are coming off winter dirt races or long vacations. I’m going to favor horses that have shown some ability on the turf in their career. Despite the shaky connections, I’m taking a flyer with longshot Tree Fire. He had a couple of good races on the turf at a higher level at BEL last year, and you’ll notice he primarily ran his turf races without blinkers. A bit chancey, but at 12-1 he’ll get a look from me. Imawarrior was close last year at this level and has a useful series of breezes for his return. Hiddenite should be the pacesetter and has a little bit of condition due to his races on the inner.

Race 4      1-2-5

Salisbury Knight has the best last race number and figures off the drop in price. Empower is going first off the claim for Danny Gargan who has been having a mind-boggling 2015. No reason the horse can’t repeat. Can’t Catch Me Now always runs close and figures to pick up some of the pieces.

Race 5      8-5-6

Adirondack Posse has two strong races on the turf and based on his figures is the fastest horse in the race. Saez is having a good spring meet at AQU. Ack Feisty goes first time for Chad Brown. Brown is exceptional with first time turfers at a route distance and the workouts suggest the horse is ready for the big time. Raffles Bay has been working at breaking his maiden for a while, but off his best his figures say competitive. Worth a look at the long price.

Race 6      7-3-2

Bet the Power ran a very useful conditioning race two weeks ago after being off nine months. Switches to the hot apprentice Cruz for this trip and makes a significant drop in price. Could get back on the winning track here. Candyman E is about 30% lifetime wins and has been with much better in the recent past. Off his best he’s as fast as any horse in the race.  Carolinian is the best early speed in the race and it’s just a question of how far he will take it.

Race 7      3-10-1

Very tough turf race, made tougher by the fact that I’m not enamored with the ML favorites. Mr Rosenthal is 20-1 on the ML. Admittedly he is a little suspect as he approaches the wire, but he will be with the front runners and his single win last year came off a long layoff. Not a stickout top choice, but not one to ignore either. With Exultation is another that looked good first off the layoff, and Trombetta is good with that move. He always gives a good effort and the competent Jose Ortiz takes the mount. Blue Pigeon gets the final nod. He always seems to be in the mix at the end and while his numbers aren’t as high as some, they are consistent. Clement in your corner is a big positive.

Race 8      7-6-2

The Excelsior marks the return of the well-regarded Wicked Strong. He is the “name” horse in the race and will likely be every bit of his even money ML. He was beaten in his first race of the year at GP in a Grade 2 but ran creditably. With some impovement second time on the track, there is every reason to expect him to win. Red Rifle has been keeping graded company lately and is 1 for 1 at the mile and a quarter distance. At 10-1 he may be one of the value runners. Effinex should have no problem getting the mile and a quarter and has some current condition. Another longshot with better chances than his odds suggest.

Race 9      10-6-8

Killer Crossover never took to the GP turf and was gelded since his last. He drops in price and and looks to duplicate his turf runs from last year. The mild choice. With Expression should be up with the leaders and has consistent turf numbers. Competitive off his best. Frogman Mel should be running in the stretch and could snag a piece.