Let me be clear up front. There is certainly more than one horse that can win this race. Unfortunately, at least one of them is unlikely to be bettable based on value. This Derby, for my money, this is as good a field as has been assembled for a few years.

For years Dosage ruled when it came to Derby picks. It is currently considered passe, especially since we’ve had five or so winners that fell outside the ideal dosage parameters. I don’t find it unimportant – it’s a piece of data like a Beyer figure, and must be used for what it is worth. The fault, if there is one in the dosage number, is that it overestimates the sire and underestimates the dam. One thing still resonates for me when it comes to dosage and that is having points in one of the stamina categories.

Another key point is that the best Derby horses have the following characteristics:

• ability to make a sustained run;
• push-button speed. This means the ability to accelerate at will;
• ratability. In other words, the ability to relax as needed;
• battle-tested. In other words, races where the horse has had to show some heart and toughness.

You want a perfect combination of those characteristics – Secretariat. Watch his triple crown races.

Horses rarely are able to win pressing a fast pace – and don’t kid  yourself, the Derby usually has a fast pace – and the ones who have done it have been against poor fields. That would not describe this year’s Derby. If you believe a horse is likely to be up front early, that’s a good reason to toss him.

Finally, horses with a good ability to close are must use in the back holes.

Let’s go through each of the starters.

1.  Ocho Ocho Ocho – Won a G3 at Delta Downs and finished third in his prep in the Bluegrass. He has one chance from the one post – gun out of the gate. He’s shown no real ability to go to the front and stay, and it is highly unlikely he is an influence in this race. Win probability – 1%

2. Carpe Diem – of all the contenders, he was likely hurt most by the post position draw. He’s another one that will almost be forced to fire out of the gate to get his position, most likely expending some precious energy in doing so. For that reason, of all the horses he is the one that suffered most in my opinion. He is memorable for his second place finish in the BC juvenile, but let’s face it – his two wins this year in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Bluegrass were not scintillating. He’s a horse with talent, and Todd Pletcher in his corner is always worth noting,. I’ll use him, but with less gusto than two weeks ago. Win probability – 12%.

3. Materiality – this is perhaps the horse that has generated the most separation of opinion. There are those who see his Florida Derby as a massive victory, especially considering he vanquished Upstart in that race. There are those who still adhere to the “curse of Apollo” and diminish his chances because he does not have enough two year old foundation. The time between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby is also of concern for a horse with so little foundation. I’m putting him in a secondary category. Win probability – 5%

4. Tencendur – he ran the race of his life in the Wood, but it was still not good enough. Given the assemblage of talent here, I can’t given him more than the nominal win probability – 1%

5. Danzig Moon – finished second to Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass. He really has little to recommend for me other than the potential to close. While I think he has no shot to win, I’ll probably have him in  a back hole. Win probability – 1%

6. Mubtaahij – My instinct tells me this horse has no real chance. Every year that a horse ships from Dubai someone thinks this could be the year, and this year is no different. Mubtaahij is thought to have faced better fields than previous runners, and while we know less about the dam side, he is bred to run all day on the sire side. He has a very low dosage and a stamina point. I’m not inclined to give him a high chance of winning, but he will be in the back holes in the exotics. Win probability – 5%

7. El Kabeir – did what you expect a good horse to do – beat the horses he is supposed to beat. While he started out as a front running sort, he switched styles to great effectiveness in the Gotham. The Wood, in my opinion, was a better than looked race. The pace was slow and El Kabeir looked very lazy in the early going. Once he got going though I thought he showed good ability. He’s not a win prospect, but he’s a must use in the back holes. Win probability – 5%

8. Dortmund – I can only think of one real knock on Dortmund – his three year old races were all won on the front end. That is not going to be successful in this Derby. If I could ask Baffert one question, it would be, how do you intend to run Dortmund? Otherwise, he’s brought the horse to the race in perfect form. He meets most of my criteria for a Derby horse, and more so than stable mate American Pharaoh, he has been tested in battle. Plus he has a win over the CD surface, and don’t discount the importance of that. If Dortmund lives up to his ability, he is a very dangerous horse. Win probability – 17%

9 Bolo – fast horse on the turf, an also ran in this race. He is in the group of horses that should have little to say in the outcome. Win probability – 1%

10. Firing Line – His claim to fame is a hard fought second to Dortmund in the R B Lewis. Truth be told, his walkover win in the Sunland Derby was not of much significance – he beat nothing in that race. He seems to be most likely to be part of the up front duel, which should compromise his chances. I’m going to be kind and give him a win probability – 5%

11. Stanford – He’s a Pletcher trainee and that is pretty much the best thing he has going for him. Win probability – 1%

12. International Star – He is a horse that looks like he improved enormously from 2 to 3 and he dominated the Louisiana preps. He has the style, but his breeding for the mile and a quarter is suspect. He’s a back holer for me. Win probability – 8%

13. Itsaknockout – Another where his biggest positive is Pletcher. He had no business being put up in the Fountain of Youth – in fact, neither he nor Upstart was going to win that race if Frosted didn’t flip his palate. I just can’t give the horse much more than the minimum chance. Win probability – 1%

14. Keen Ice – snuck in after a defection and you’d have thought a major injustice had been righted. I’m not seeing this horse having anything to say in the outcome. Win probability – 1%

15. Frosted – in my opinion, he is the horse with the highest win probability. Now, there is a little bit of faith involved in giving him the nod. He was beaten by Upstart in the Holy Bull and hit the wall in the Fountain of Youth. Was it lack of talent? Perhaps not. He was diagnosed with a common breathing problem, had corrective surgery and came back in the Wood to run a superb race. He has all the things you look for in the Derby horse -speed, stamina (he has a dosage point in the stamina category), and is almost certainly going to run to the best of his ability Saturday. Despite a slow pace in the Derby, he ran by Tencendur without being asked for his best. He is the one horse likely to be beat his odds and for me will be the win bet. Win probability – 18%

16. War Story – is coming out of the Louisiana Preps and looks up against it to me. Win probability – 1%

17. Mr. Z – one win in 12 starts. Enough said. He does not have the talent to beat this field. Win probability – 1%

18. American Pharaoh – whatever you thought might be his race strategy, once he got the 18 his strategies were limited. Most likely he’s going to bust to the front and run from there. He’s 5-2 on the ML. Why? He’s won his races easily, although the competition was limited. He has a bang up work at CD on Sunday, but if I had a dollar for every time Baffert worked a horse fast before a big race, I’d be basking in the dough. That work means Baffert horse more than super talent. He’s not well bred for the distance, so you’ll have to be a believer in the theory that he is a freak, likely to outrun that breeding. This horse is getting all the buzz, and there are plenty of strong opinions that he is the second coming of…California Chrome I guess. He’s a talented horse, but I’m playing the race that his breeding kicks in in the last eighth and he is at best slotted for a minor award. Win probability – 15%

19. Upstart – is a talented horse. The DQ in the FOY was criminal, but the loss to Materiality is of concern. The 19 post doesn’t help either. His breeding seems to suggest a preference for the middle distances. He just doesn’t have enough for me to make him a serious threat, but I’ll use him in some back holes. Win probability – 7%

20. Far Right – has the kind of closing kick that makes him a real in the money threat. He didn’t beat American Pharaoh in Arkansas, and has only beaten some of the lesser runners in here, but he’ll likely start slow, make his way through the field and try for a big run in the stretch. He’ll be in the back holes. Win probability – 8%

The throw-outs for me are Ocho Ocho Ocho, Tencendur, Bolo, Stanford, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, War Story, and Mr. Z. The low-win, but in the money prospects are Materiality, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Firing Line, International Star, Upstart and Far Right. The second tier win prospects are Carpe Diem and Ameican Pharaoh. The likeliest winners in my opinion are Frosted and Dortmund.

And my win bet will be on Frosted.