Very tough day today. I’ll be looking for spots.

Race 1      5-1-8

Mister Popsicle is the best front speed and has the best lifetime figure. Second off the claim for DJ. Mack Miller has not been having a great year (something you couldn’t say about his namesake) but drops by more than half in search of a win. If he runs to his previous figures he’s in the mix. Alysaro is the other figure horse. Four starts this year, three in the money. These three horses are likely the first three choices, but I simply couldn’t find a price horse that struck me.

Race 2      7-2-6 

In this race there are a couple of horses that have started and a couple of first timers that seem to be in the mix. Hit It Once More already has two starts and in his last he hung tough until the end. Looks the best of the horses that have a start. Littlebitadominic goes for the talented Linda Rice. The workout pattern looks good and Jose Ortiz gets up. New York;s Zip is a City Zip colt starting for Leo O’Brien. O’Brien has lost a lot of his touch, but the workouts look decent and Johnny V takes the mount.

Race 3      4-6-7

Thundergram hasn’t been worse than second in his last four. No reason to expect any less today. Lietenant Seany O switched from low profile Lilli Kurtinecz to the well regarded Mike Maker. On his best day he fits with this group and at 12-1 he could be worth a long look. Infinite Midnight only has three starts and seems to be on the improve for Chad Brown. Most dangerous horse in a race is the rapidly improving three year old and this one fits the bill.

Race 4      3-5-7

Dynamic Decision is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and was claimed last out by the capable Danny Gargan. Sharp work since the claim. Chunnel was eased last out when in over his head. Fits much better in this group and his last trip at the distance had him just behind the top choice. Verger make his first start with winners after a sharp maiden victory. Another improving three year old , but you have to be concerned about Brown dumping the horse at a fire sale price. Still, may have the talent to beat a $40K field.

Race 5      (13) 7-10 (14)

Leaveematthegate is first on the AE list and if he makes it in should be the danger. Figures look dominant against this crew. Storm Prophet ran an even race last out and puts the blinkers on in an effort to get him focused. Mike Hushion is 26% with second time maidens. Borrowed Dreams outran his longshot odds in his debut race and earned a good enough figure to generate some interest. The Undersheriff improved markedly when moved to the turf. Big rider switch from Arroyo to Johnny V.

Race 6      4-2-5

Holdtherightcards had a troubled trip last out in a race that figured as a strong one. Is by a top sire of precocious young horses, Tiz Wonderful. Nevin is strong with second start maidens. Flexibility goes first time for the tough combination of Chad Brown and Manny Franco. Works suggest some talent. Spooked Out goes for Pletcher/Velasquez and he also has some good works.

Race 7      5-7-4

Make a Decision was claimed last out by Mike Maker after running second at this level at SAR.  Maker has given the horse six weeks off and that should be enough time to get him pointed in the right direction. At his best he’s competitive with these. Ocala Jim is another entered for the tag. He had a bang-up year in 2014, but has had some trouble cracking the code this year. At his best he’s competitive with these. Payment Terms only has four lifetime starts, one of them in a state-bred stakes. He has two wins at BEL  We’ll see if he can negotiate the stretch out.

Race 8      8-1-2

Reload was a G3 winner last year but has had an abbreviated campaign this year. Still, he has a win over the BEL turf at this distance and always seems to give a good effort. Inchcape has a similar running style to Reload and may actually be the one to catch. He’s another that has run a consistent set of top figures.  Fredricksburg is a long 15-1 on the ML. He’s got a second and a third in his two races at BEL and should be able to get a comfortable position from the rail. Worth considering at the price. Notacatbutallama ran a great race against the top NY turf stakes horses in Lubash and King Kreesa in the West Point. Last race wasn’t bad, and I can excuse it because he came back in 11 days.  He gets a more reasonable rest this time and certainly fits the price and distance.

Race 9      7-2-9-10

This race looks ultra-competitive on paper. I think I could make a case for seven of the runners. I’ll start with War Dancer. While he hasn’t won in 2015, he has been competitive in Grade 1’s. He has a nice tracking style and may find the cutback in distance more to his liking. Messi is devoid of any early foot, but showed a strong closing kick in his first two races in NA. He faltered in the Sword Dancer after a bobbling start, but Graham Motion brings him right back in another graded race. Besides, you can’t get too down on a horse that loses to Flintshire, Red Rifle and Twilight Eclipse. Mr. Speaker comes off a Grade 2 win at Laurel, but he is also 3 for 7 on the BEL turf. McLaughlin is shrewd with his horses, and usually has them wound up for big events like this one. Given the presence of mostly closers, All Included may inherit the lead. He’s lightly raced in comparison to some of the others but has won half his races. Dangerous if he goes to the front and is allowed to dawdle along.

Race 10   8-11-4

Reimburse is a juicy prospect at her 12-1 ML. In her first start she checked badly at the start, losing all chance. She was a bit awkward at the break in her second start but still managed to get up with the leaders. That 8th place finish is much better than looked. The cutback in distance may help and Lezcano’s return for the ride is a positive. Ava’s Kitten goes for Chad Brown after a very competitive race in the P G Johnson. Definitiely the maid threat. On Leave ran well first time for McGaughey and cuts back to the sprint distance today. Breeding says she is well suited for the seven furlongs and workouts say she iis ready to rock this time out.

Not a pretty betting day at first glance. Too many WYSIWYG races or races where seven horses look like they have a reasonable chance.

Race 1      3-6-7

Axtell ran in a stakes last out, finished close in both his maiden starts and drops to $75K. Looks tough on paper. Strong Dude is a 12-1 first timer for Contessa. He’s got some nice works and in a weak field is worth a look. Denim Blue drops out of MSW. Two starts at SAR weren’t horrible and he should improve this start.

Race 2      6-5-3

First Charmer was nipped by Lilikoi but I like him to turn the tables today. She was coming off a short rest and should show a little more. Stone Supplier is another one coming out of the same race. Showed some courage in the stretch and will probably be longer than the horses that beat her. Hush Now was third in that race after a bad stumble at the start. Given she had shown good pressing ability she has every right to improve enought to win today.

Race 3      3-6-4

Modus Operandi has a lot of starts but a lot of good numbers. If she decides to finish today she could be the one. Khaleesi Kat is the strongest closer and may already have two wins had she not had all sorts of trouble in her last. Equal chances to win with the top pick. Angel Choir is all the speed here and that is always going to be dangerous. Three pretty equal choices including on the tote board.

Race 4      8-3-1/1A

Spartan Emperor showed speed in both his starts and last time held it to deep stretch. Looking for the last step today. My Tommy Boy looked much better on the dirt than his last race on the turf. Should be in a good striking position. The Sunrise Stallions entry of Rich Dalone and How Frosty It Is have been knocking at the maiden level for a while. They each have run races that would be competitive with this group. Outside chances.

Race 5      1/1A-4-3

The Jacobson entry looks tough on both ends. Chasing Bubbles was just claimed for $40K and drops down to $12,500, a typical Jacobson move. Bass River Road is another $40K claimee. He is 6 for 16 overall with five of those at this distance. Gentrify got his last win at BEL in June, showed good speed last out at BEL and has competitive figures. A bit of an in and outer, but dangerous at the front. Mach Seven is close to 50% in the money, although only about 11% win. Has shown some affinity for BEL.

Race 6      3-2-5

Scorpion Aly  has had a good season for Patricia Farro who is 1 for 4 shipping into BEL. The mare has not been over the BEL surface, but she has shown ability on different lawns and looks to be placed at the right level.  Love That Kelly has been popular at the claim box and has two in the money finishes in three tries at BEL. Looks to be in good condition. Low key connections ensure a good price. Bargaining Table goes second off the claim for RuRod. She’s been consistent figurewise but has had trouble reacing the winner’s circle this year. In a good spot this time though.

Race 7      5-11-2-9

The last three races in the P4 sequence look highly competitive. I went with Dark Roast. He just won a statebred allowance and drops into the OC $40K ranks. He’s well suited to the seven surlong distance and has shown an affinity for BEL. Glowing Ember drops out of ALW NW1X into this statebred affair. He’s another with an affinity for BEL and should be best at this distance. Lord of Love seems more likely in the money than in the winner’s circle, but the figures are competitive. Could be part of the finish. Powerful Instinct may want more distance but if he is close at the top of the stretch he could be a factor.

Race 8      7-2-6-4

Ocean Knight was well regarded early in the year, even winning a graded event. The SAR race was a good combacker and at his best he should top the field. Second City is 4 for 6 at the distance and looks to be in good condition. May seem a cut below the top runners here, but given he is the closing speed and is at 20-1 ML I’ll give him a long look. Noble Moon was running graded races last year and lately has been showing some front speed. Chances look better today. Face of Winner generally goes to the front and stays there. Faltered late in the BEL mud last out but still showed courage. Like his chances today.

Race 9      6-4-2-12

Preying Mantis had been fading but gets first Lasix today. Should be the one to catch. Sheyn Vi Di Levone ran well last time and puts the blinkers on today. Taken by Surprise is the Pletcher/Velasquez runner and should improve this time out. Love You Babe was stuck on the far outside last time and finds herself there again. If she can find the trip she’s got a real chance.

You never know when all the stars are going to align and Wednesday was a huge day for me. I had the winner of the first eight races at BEL. That was the early Pick 5 ($4,444 for 50 cents), the early Pick 4 ($557 for 50 cents), the first six Pick 3’s ($109, $1,380, $739, $240, $126,  $228) and two 9-1 shots along the way.  I don’t like the card today quite as much today, but as I said, you never know.

Race 1      5-2-3

While Ferzetti may get most of the action (and is not outless) I tend to stay away from 13 start maidens that have a lot of seconds. I went instead with Zealous Wildcat. She only has two starts, although they are widely spaced. She also drops down from MSW to this $20K level and that looks a lot more negative than positive. Still, she has the speed and should have no problem with the distance. Nevin is 4 of 9 dropping from MSW to MCL and 28% off the layoff. Proceed with some caution. Phocea is something of a stab in a very weak field. Her first start was on the turf and she has very little turf breeding. Her second race was on a muddy SAR track and she didn’t do much after a troubled start. She takes the blinkers off and catches a fast track today. She’s actually got a couple of pretty good works. At 20-1 ML she’ll probably get my win bet. Kayleigh’s Road cuts back to the sprint distance after a few mediocre routes. Looks more suited for the MCL level.

Race 2      3-5-2

Mid Ocean was clearly over his head in the Travers after breaking his maiden impressively at DEL. He looked pretty good dropping back to a mile at the $50K starter level and actually may be best at today’s distance. Shadow Rider looked good breaking his maiden a couple of weeks ago and has every right to take two in a row. Bird Prince improved a little when stretched out and would be no surprise in the winner’s circle.

Race 3      6-3-4

Pirellone just missed in a MSW upstate. Looks like by far the best speed and owns a field dominating figure. Seat of Honor didn’t show a lot first out, but gets Lasix today. Should improve on the stretch out. Patrick’s Day failed as the favorite last out but should improve today. Pletcher/Castellano always a dangerous combo.

Race 4       9-4-11

Shoot the Moon looks like another in the Michelle Nevin clearance sale. The 3 year old filly  ran a good third in May, showing nice front-running ability, but laid off until this race. Works look like she’s prepped and  Nevin has a high percentage  with returnees off the layoff. She’s Gifted has run into two off tracks but has showed some talent. Last two workouts look good. Given this is about as bad a field as I could imagine, the 0 for 13 with six thirds Yourcreditisgood probably has her best chance.

Race 5      1/1A-4-2

Because Irad is named on both horses, one will be scratched. However, both look strong in this race. Riviere du Loup has two seconds, a third and a close fourth since coming to America. He’s in the right class and may do better with the curback in distance. Boss Man just missed at this level in his last and has competitive figures. Defining Product has plenty of speed and should thrive at seven furlongs. Artie Crasher has done well at BEL and drops down from his last. Goes second off the claim for Reynolds who is having a respectable 2015.

Race 6      7-4-2

Kodiva ran a good one first in America after showing some talent in Britain. That race represented a new top for her and she gets a good switch to Cornelio Velasquez for this run. Fourstar Crook goes for the powerful combo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. Was moving well late in her last and really improved her final time. On the Trail ran her best race in an off-the-turf affair, but still may be better meant on the turf. May be coming to hand for McGaughey.

Race 7      4-6-3

Ross J. Dawg was overlooked in his first with winners but won’t be overlooked here. Was a winner at this distance first time out and looks like an improving three year old that is finally maturing. Frisky Magician should show the way in this race and should have no problem with the seven furlong trip. Enjoy the show fits better at the SA level and should be the one closing best in the stretch.

Race 8      1-6-5

Rumble Doll improved when the blinkers were added. Will need a clever ride from the one post since she’s going to have to come from off the pace but she’s as fast as anything in here. Strong Incentive just broke her maiden and tries a tough group of winners here. Improved when moved to the turf and should be one of those battling up front. Interesting to consider. Lady Kreesa is one for one at this distance on the turf and will have to be at her best against open company.

Race 9      3-9-10

Mystical Charm ran well in her maiden breaking win at MTH. That race may have actually been with slightly better and she’s come back with a strong work in prep for this race. Laura’s Patriot has been dropping in search of the second win. Has consistent figures and is competitive here. Puparee drops from the $40K level. Sole win came here at BEL.

I’m back, although I’m not sure how much I was missed. Picks are for on the turf and are prior to scratches.

Race 1      4-5-2

Malibu Charlie should be the pacesetter. He showed improvement when dropping down to the claiming level, finishing second in a race he perhaps should have won. Joel Rosario gave him a questionable ride, getting blocked in the stretch and having to swing out. Melville has some good races at BEL and ran well coming off a short layoff and should appreciate the cutback in distance. Boston Strong drops down from ALW NW1X. He has good figures, but will have to show more interest in the win.

Race 2      2-7-4

I liked Sanfiera in her last race but she was a disappointment. She certainly carries the top race figure, but you have to have some concern about a six year old mare that didn’t start until two months ago. One more chance for me. Jessica’s Ride showed a lot of speed in her last two races, the last one a solid third at this price level at BEL. Splendid Gold has been laboring at this level for a while, but the in-the-money finishes are enough to keep her in the mix here.

Race 3      2-1-6

Keep Bustin and Trail Walker look best in a very weak field, and at the ML odds suggest neither will be a bet in this race. Da Wildcat Girl had a big year in 2014 but hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle this year. Still, she’s got a good record at BEL and the distance.

Race 4      11-8-3

My initial look at this race suggested more horses had a chance than didn’t, so keep that in mind. Pound Sterling is only making her third start. The last race she bobbled at the start rushed up with the leaders, faded but really didn’t lose lengths in the stretch. At the odds she’s worth a look. Written in Stars has been coming from off the pace. There isn’t a lot of speed to run at, but she has been consistently running in the stretch. Sky Gem ships from Woodbine for top trainer Mark Casse. Turf and distance breeding are very good.

Race 5      5-2-4

Theophilia is the short priced ML favorite and looks best, although the odds are too low to contemplate a win bet. She’s the front speed and will have to be caught. Two Taps looks very competitive in here and should be coming at Theophilia in the stretch. Fast Retailing is coming off a short break after losing her maiden status at SAR. She was a million dollar yearling purchase and has been working well for the return.

Race 6      9-6-10

Benny and Alex looked good in his first start at MTH but flopped in the mud at BEL. He puts the blinkers on, drops down to the MCL level and and gets Irad for this trip. Rooftop View is another dropping from MSW and adding blinkers, and didn’t seem to care for the mud. Today should provide a fast track and we’ll see if that makes the difference. Carysfort Reef ran into a monster first out. He couldn’t go with that one but should have a much easier field to deal with today.

Race 7      6-9-2-3

Gotachancetodance hasn’t been worse than second in her last four. Pletcher and Saez make her competitive. Runner Runner made a big close in her U.S. debut and ran a lifetime best in that race. Have to like the chances here. Achnaha gets a jockey switch to Manny Franco and he is a solid 21% in partnership with Weaver. Coming off a short rest and she has run well off that layoff before. Rock Me Again has showed a lot of speed in her races and ran a lifetime top last out.

Race 8      2-5-1

Here’s Zealicious wins better than a third of her races, although lately she’s been pretty ordinary. Last race was encouraging and there has been at least one eye-catching workout since. Scat Away just missed last time out on a muddy BEL surface. She’s two of three in the money at BEL and has a win and a second at the distance. Rub a Dubb Dubb is looking for three in a row and jumps up significantly today. Still the numbers seem to say she is competitive with this group.

Race 9      4-7-11

First Bid stretches out but drops in price looking for the win. Should be in the scrum at the front of the pack. Moe Man is coming second off a short layoff and his last race showed good improvement. Englehart is usually good with horses he’s claimed. Drops down to his lowest level in a while. Golden Itiz has been strongest at BEL and is another dropping down in search of victory.

I’m back from my travels and I had a very productive trip, including attending my first demolition derby at the Frederick County Fair AND trying a fried oreo for the first time. I spent some time on the backside at Laurel Park. I also got to see the Pope driving by in his Fiat (like any other car would have been the right choice) across 34th street in mid-town Manhattan and having a very nice conversation with (my new friend) Andy Serling at Belmont Park. Plus I had a candid conversation with racing attorney extraordinaire Karen Murphy that I’ll be writing about this week.

Meanwhile, I’m back with selections for Belmont. I think it has been a difficult meet where in too many of the races the favorites look too good and the longer prices look inferior. But we’ll keep looking for some solid longshots. Since I’m posting the night before, selections are before scratches and assume races stay on the turf.

Race 1      4-3-6

Race 2      1-5-4

Race 3      7-2-3

Race 4      6-2-4

Race 5      5-6-3

Race 6      8-5-7-10

Race 7      7-8-2

Race 8      7-2-5

Race 9      5-7-10

Race 1      5-4-7

While Right Decision has the best figures, she’s had multiple chances and hasn’t cracked the code. I’m not saying she can’t win the race, but I like to go elsewhere to horses that haven’t gotten half the way to professional maiden status. For that reason I’ll go to C Note. She has two starts, the second better than the first and a good figure. The race is apparently devoid of speed, so the lead may fall to Future Show. She ran well enough to win first time out and gets a good jockey switch from Cintron to Alvarado. Elated makes her sixth start and she has been out of the money only once. Top figure off her last race.

Race 2      3-6-5

This is another competitive affair. I’m going to take a chance with Perfecct Disco. He was off since March, came out at SAR at this level and showed good speed to the stretch in a race half a furlong longer than today’s distance. He can be excused for needing the start and at his best he’s as good as anything in the race. Gullo is 27% off the six month layoff. Attractive Ride has four wins in his last five starts and has the best front speed in the race. Claimed by DJ last out and he is pretty effective off first time with a new runner. McKenzies Way was claimed by Michelle Nevin who is 26% first off the claim. She kept the horse off since May, and has put in some comfortable works in prep for this race. In the recent past he was defeating much better than this field and will be dangerous if Nevin has him cranked.

Race 3      7-8-1

The Ashley Cole stakes brings together a number of the usual state-bred turf stakes suspects. No reason to pick against the consistent runners Lubash, Kharafa and Iron Power. You can decide how to mix and match.

Race 4      4-1-7

Mr. Popsicle was claimed last out by DJ and that makes him dangerous. DJ decided to geld the horse, and that usually focuses an animal. The horse had shown good speed and although he is bred well for the turf, his two wins have come on the dirt. Has a monster number off his win on the slop and given his last was his first start of 2015, lots of improvement is possible today. Groupthink looks to be the better of the Gargan runners. He drops in half and has been in the money six of seven starts this year. Chase Lane had a good start when dropped to this level last out and returns in search of a win.

Race 5      1A -4-5-3

Queen’s Parade looks to be the better of the entry. Has a win at the distance at BEL and competitive numbers. Radiator should be the speed in the race and given there isn’t much other front speed he may take the field all the way. Trophee will inevitably be flying at the end and success may depend on the pace and Alvarado’s ability to time the move right. Miss Chatelaine comes off a couple of decent runs in graded stakes. Will have to win coming from the farthest back.

Race 6      3-7-5

Scorecard Harry has been improving and moves over to the Mike Hushion barn for this start. He had a little trouble at the break in his last and could improve today. Loses some weight with the switch to Cancel. Dettifoss bolted in his last but in the prior start was a strong second. The figure from that race is competitive here. Blinkers come off in an effort to change the gate issues. Interior Secretary popped his best race last out and in a weak field is one of the stick-outs.

Race 7      6-10-1

Andalusite finally broke his maiden in his 9th start. This is a pretty weak field and he has a good chance to make it two in a row. Valuetempo has been knocking around at this level for a while with moderate success. Should be one of the ones battling up front and may have enough courage to hang on. Melville looks like the better of the two in the entry. Drops back to a more comfortable level today.

Race 8      11-2-1-10

The John Hettinger is definitely the feature race on today’s card. A number of runners are coming out of the Yadoo, and for the most part they are interchangeable here. We’ll start with Selenite. She stumbled at the start of that race but still was part of the finish. Her win at BEL was on a DQ, but she’s had some success over the BEL turf.  The Tea Cups is a sentimental favorite for me since that was my bet in the Yadoo. She’ll be winging from back in the stretch. Old Harbor ran a nice race in the Yadoo, tracking in fourth and not being able to keep The Tea Cups at bay. Invading Humor has seven wins in 17 races, including three wins at BEL and one at the distance. Should be in a good position early and we’ll see if she has the closing kick.

Race 9      11-1-8-7

Big Al Parker has taken well to the turf with a couple of better than looked races. Drops out of the MSW ranks to claimers today. Gets a switch to Saez for this run. Old Friend is another dropping out of the MSW ranks and should be winging in the stretch. The inside post might be a problem if Franco doesn’t find a clear route home. Mind Magic ran better at BEL than he did upstate. Was claimed by Mike Maker and he is a good 21% first time off the claim. Hunter Cat has one turf sprint to his name and will be part of the early scrum. Speed is always dangerous.

Race 1      5-9-1-6

A few high price purchases in this group. The most expensive entrant is the $2.2 million colt Mohaymen. This Tapit son has been working decently for Kiaran McLaughlin and should be ready to go. King Kranz ran a strange race in his first start. He broke with the leaders and then quickly moved to the back of the pack, getting the comment “greenly.”
Coming out of the turn he showed good interest, passing four horses in the stretch. The speculation is that if he runs without issues he will be very competitive here. At 10-1 it’s worth finding out. Formulate goes for Chad Brown who is now a more down to earth 21% with first timers. Malibu Moon has been a superior sire for young horses and the workout pattern is typical Chad Brown. Seymourdini is a $900K Bernardini colt for Linda Rice  who is not particularly sharp with first timers. Still, the talent is there and he has to be given some consideration.

Race 2      7-3-2

Mack Miller looked ok at SAR and he is probably better suited to the 6F distance. Cleburne is the X factor here. He was well thought of in his three year old season, starting in a couple of graded stakes, but was generally a disappointment. He switches trainers to Thomas Morely, and has a useful series of works for the 2015 debut. Could be dangerous if he lives up to his potential. Successful Brothers has 11 second place finishes in 27 starts and while he doesn’t inspire in the win slot, he certainly looks like he wants to be close.

Race 3      3-12-9-8

Brinkley was off slow and had some bumping in the stretch but she still showed plenty of interest. A clean trip should put her on top. Orzo was in the same race and had a little problem at the gate, plus she raced greenly. Another who can be a factor if she acts more professionally. Celestial Insight goes for Wesley Ward who is fair with first timers. Abbreviated work tab but a couple of nice ones. Relativism is one to watch here. She is very well bred for the turf but may be at her best over a distance of ground. The works don’t suggest prep for a sprint, but the horse may show well on inherent talent alone.

Race 4      4-8-6-2

Sheriffa hasn’t been out since May but has never been out of the money at BEL and is one for one at the distance. Won huge the last time she was coming back from a layoff for a trainer who is decent with returning runners. Tahoe Tigress is interesting at 8-1 ML. She’s 5 of 9 at BEL and 4 of 8 at the distance. She started the year finishing last in a G3, and ran two uninspired races after that in restricted stakes; however, she probably is better suited to the one turn race and her last win came on this track at this level. Kirov is a contender but she may be a bit overrated at 2-1 ML. She beat a pretty good NW1X field but with a figure that isn’t quite the match of the top choice, plus she’ll likely have Sheriffa to contend with at the front. Guyana is riding a four race winning streak and is one likely to benefit if the race breaks down up front.

Race 5      4-2-6-3

Two Down One to Go is the Kitten’s Joy colt trained by Chad Brown. Superior breeding for both the turf and the distance. Ro Bear ran a good one in his maiden first out and should improve with the experience. Clearly looks the best of the horses that have started. Ben’s Miracle is by young sire Uncle Mo who has had some early success with turf starters. Ryerson is a good 25% with first timers and he’s got some good looking works. Core Portfolio goes for top notch first start trainer Richard Violette. One to watch on the board.

Race 6      1-3-5

The coupling of Classic Salsa and Comandante looks tough here. Both are likely to be up front early, both have had some success at BEL, and Danny Gargan has had a pretty good 2015. Second City has been racing with better and has competitive figures despite not having a lot of win success in the last two years. Better than the 12-1 ML indicates. Mordi’s Miracle was taken last out by DJ and rested a month and a half. Jacobson is actually pretty good off that move and I like that he doesn’t drop him in price. Nice series of works in prep for this.

Race 7      4-3-5-10

The Big Deluxe looked good when being moved back to a turf sprint. Has shown a lot speed in his dirt races so should be in a good spot turning for home. Descent has a win and a second on the BEL turf and was only 3/4 of a length behind The Big Deluxe in his last. Run for Logistics lost all chance at the start last out but before that had a win and three seconds in his last four turf sprints before that. Speightstown Time ran well first time out and could be any kind as he goes first time with winners.

Race 8      1-5-2-8

Coffee Clique is a recent Grade 3 winner and was only two lengths out in the Ballston Spa. Is a Grade 1 winner at BEL and is well suited for the distance. Recepta just won the De La Rose and is a Grade 3 winner at BEL. Mabre Rose just won a Grade 3 at WO and has a win and two seconds in three races at BEL. Gets the good turf rider Lezcano. Lady Lara has been exclusively with Grade 1 and 2 horses this year and perhaps the less accomplished field makes her more competitive.

Race 9      2-5-8-11

Lot’s of question marks in this race. Jay Gatsby makes his first start in the U.S. for Jimmy Jerkens, a traner not really known for his prowess with Euro shippers. I’m going to give him a race. Despite his perfect in the money record, the wins came against short fields at some lesser French tracks. Umgiyo was ok in Dubai, shipped to CD and raced on Derby day, finishing last in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. He gets first Lasix today and Clement is 28% with that move. Possibly not value at 3-1, but could be a factor. Global Strike went to the lead at a mile and five eighths and wasn’t able to hold. Should be better suited to the mile and a quarter and will have to be caught. Planetaire ships over from France for Graham Motion, who is 25% with first time North America starters, has been working him for a month at Fair Hill. Sly Tom has a recent win at BEL and certainly fits the class level. Worth a look at 15-1 ML. Taghleeb hasn’t run a bad lifetime race and his last start was one of the better figures. Another with some interest at a decent price.

Race 10   8-1-10-11

The best talent in this race seems to be on the outside. Converge goes first time for Chad Brown. He was bought for 16 times the sire fee and although the sire hasn’t had great first time success, the sample is limited and the works look useful. Brooklyn Speights lost to Too Discreet, who came back to take the Schenectady, and Heated Verdict who broke his maiden next out. While his race wasn’t impressive, he was bet a little bit and Wesley Ward has powerful numbers with second time maidens, two year olds, and sprint to route. Yummy Bear had all sorts of trouble first time out but should have learned some lessons from that start. Sax Change has looked good in his two starts and has to be respected for his experience.

Race 1      3-5-4

Familyofroses has only two wins but they have both been at BEL. Will have to close for the win but has the figures to be a factor. Lady Luciano should be the speed here and has looked better on the dirt than the turf. Literata has two wins in four tries at BEL including one at the distance.

Race 2      4-7-6

Sinatra should be in a good spot turning for home and should do better with the drop in price. Upgrade is another dropping in price. Has a high in the money percentage and has been running consistent figures for a while. Compliance Officer has been with quite a bit better in the recent past and ran well when dropped to this level last out.

Race 3      8-2-6

Godrevy puts the blinkers on and Castellano stays for the ride. Should be coming late. Indian Trail has been improving with each out and the fact Pletcher keeps him at the MSW level is a positive. Captain Tim looked better in his last out and could be getting back to the form he showed first time out at BEL.

Race 4      5-1-13

Chico Grande was gelded since his last start and drops down to his lowest price ever. Looks best in a suspect field. Frontier Scout is racing third off a layoff and has come back stronger in 2015. Apache Warrior makes another drop after finishing a close second last out. Should be able to get a spot even though he is on the outside.

Race 5      1-5-6

The Magical Miss/Egyptian Magic coupling looks tough here. Both are dropping in price and look well meant at the distance. Undertherain should be the speed in a field that doesn’t have an abundance of front runners. Moon Medal is dropping way down after running a good race second time on the turf.

Race 6      10-7-5

Whatawonderflworld is a Tiz Wonderful that goes first time for top trainer Mark Casse. Love the fast early work and the last work on the turf. Stormin Stephen had the lead in the stretch last out but lost by a half after racing greenly. A better effort could put him on top. Sherry’s Miracle has some fast works for Mike Miceli and looks well bred for the distance.

Race 7      6-9-1

Mid Ocean has the best last race figure but that was in a Travers where he was no factor at all. Prior to that was impressive breaking his maiden and if he goes back to that race he’s still a major factor. Tapitsphere just missed in his last and seems to have come into his own lately. Send It In should be at his best at the mile distance for Pletcher/Castellano. Has a good race over the BEL dirt.

Race 8      7-10-4-2

Barrel of Love threw in a mediocre race last out but the penultimate race was a fast sprint at BEL. Sandy’z Slew just missed last out. Still looking for a win on the BEL turf but has been in the money all five of his starts there. Tripski gets a positive switch to Castellano and hasn’t been out of the money this year. Summer Breezing is 2 for 2 over the BEL turf and looks to be in top condition.

Race 9      4-8-3-2

Miss Kew has been wide in both of her starts but has still closed with interest. Lots of outs today. Lady Lucky had a troubled start last out but still showed enough interest to finish third. Every opportunity to win with a clean start. Sheyn Vi Di Levonne comes out of the same race as the first two and was another than need the experience from that start. Expecting better today. Sophie’s Choice last race was better than looked and she has been improving. Interesting at 15-1 ML.

Race 1      7-4-3

Northern Screamer showed a little bit of speed in her first race back after a short break and drops from MSW to a low claiming level. Don’t like the drop, but looks strong in this group. Kisses for Romeo has been knocking around at this level but her last two have shown some life. Kay’s Little Mug didn’t have a chance in her first race and comes back after 10 months for Zito. Bit of a stretch but could make the verticals.

Race 2      4-6-1

Bounty Pink is a win type that is 4 of 5 on the BEL dirt.  She’s at the right level and gets a preferred fast track today. Star of the Forest has not run a bad one for Jacobson and is competitive with this group. Has had success at the distance. So Good to Go was claimed last out by Bruce Brown and looks for two in a row.

Race 3      3-2-9

Luv Dakota Skye drops to a level where he has had success before.  Has done his best running at BEL. Ogermeister was grabbed by Gullo last out and he is fair first off the claim. In four starts on the turf has two seconds and a third. Excellent Royale finally gets Lasix and looks to jump up from his last. Will need odds to make him a bet.

Race 4      1-10-6-9

Royalton is one of a group coming out of the Women Win race. She has a little trouble in her first and didn’t show enough speed in her second, but was coming off a two month layoff. Expect improvement today. Lady in Shades puts the blinkers on and cuts back in distance. Last work suggests she’s ready to roll today. Stone Supplier was second in the aforementioned Women Win race. Last was really better than looked – don’t buy the DRF guess that the last was a regression from the first race because the Beyer’s figure was lower. She was on a much faster pace in a much faster race. Kellyesque also comes out of the Women Wins race. Couldn’t keep up but that race was impressive for a first effort, and don’t discount the massive switch to Irad.

Race 5      7-5-9

Cease is a bit overestimated on the ML but does have a series of figures that should handle this field. Grandpa Len didn’t run that well at SAR but prior to that ran a couple of good ones at BEL. Popular at the claim box. Groomedforvictory has been a hard campaigner and  is good at BEL and the distance.

Race 6      2-12-9

Blue Earth drops down to the claiming ranks after running a good learning race in her first start. Angel Choir makes her tenth start in search of a win. Has the figures to be a factor here. Pointe Class puts the blinkers on after running an improved race when dropped to $40K. Seems to have picked up on the turf and at the route distance. Interesting switch to Cancel.

Race 7      3-7-2-8

Welcome Speech drops to his lowest level and off his best competes with this group. Winner’s Legacy makes a substantial drop today in search of a win. An easier group may be the tonic. Suzy’sprideofparis has some competitive figures and at 20-1 ML is worth a look. Quarla flopped at SAR but prior to that had been running competitively. Looks a lot more likely for an in-the-money finish than a win.

Race 8      7-6-2

Beyond Empire has been close in three starts in the U.S. after trying Dubai. Figures look dominant. All About Ashley is 2 for 2 at BEL and should be fighting up front today. The scratch of Petrocelli might help him. Force raced well in a state-bred stakes last out and should have first run at the leaders.

Race 9      5-6-11

Miss Rickles showed a lot of improvement second time out and at 10-1 is worth a look. Scout It Out showed well when moved to turf and dropped in price. Expect improvement today. Splendid Gold is coming from the far outside and has to overcome that disadvantage but has been competing well at the turf sprint.

Since this is being posted the night before, picks are before scratches and assume turf races stay on the turf.

High probability winners – Stay Tuned (2nd), Possilicious (5th)

Possible Longshots – Ex Ex Ex (8th)

Race 1      4-6-2

Race 2      5-7-1

Race 3      3-1-5

Race 4      7-3-5

Race 5      3-4-6

Race 6      9-1-3

Race 7      2-3-6

Race 8      4-7-12 (9)

( ) means a horse that has a high probability of being in the money, but low probability of winning

Race 9      9-7-8