Race 1      5-4-7

While Right Decision has the best figures, she’s had multiple chances and hasn’t cracked the code. I’m not saying she can’t win the race, but I like to go elsewhere to horses that haven’t gotten half the way to professional maiden status. For that reason I’ll go to C Note. She has two starts, the second better than the first and a good figure. The race is apparently devoid of speed, so the lead may fall to Future Show. She ran well enough to win first time out and gets a good jockey switch from Cintron to Alvarado. Elated makes her sixth start and she has been out of the money only once. Top figure off her last race.

Race 2      3-6-5

This is another competitive affair. I’m going to take a chance with Perfecct Disco. He was off since March, came out at SAR at this level and showed good speed to the stretch in a race half a furlong longer than today’s distance. He can be excused for needing the start and at his best he’s as good as anything in the race. Gullo is 27% off the six month layoff. Attractive Ride has four wins in his last five starts and has the best front speed in the race. Claimed by DJ last out and he is pretty effective off first time with a new runner. McKenzies Way was claimed by Michelle Nevin who is 26% first off the claim. She kept the horse off since May, and has put in some comfortable works in prep for this race. In the recent past he was defeating much better than this field and will be dangerous if Nevin has him cranked.

Race 3      7-8-1

The Ashley Cole stakes brings together a number of the usual state-bred turf stakes suspects. No reason to pick against the consistent runners Lubash, Kharafa and Iron Power. You can decide how to mix and match.

Race 4      4-1-7

Mr. Popsicle was claimed last out by DJ and that makes him dangerous. DJ decided to geld the horse, and that usually focuses an animal. The horse had shown good speed and although he is bred well for the turf, his two wins have come on the dirt. Has a monster number off his win on the slop and given his last was his first start of 2015, lots of improvement is possible today. Groupthink looks to be the better of the Gargan runners. He drops in half and has been in the money six of seven starts this year. Chase Lane had a good start when dropped to this level last out and returns in search of a win.

Race 5      1A -4-5-3

Queen’s Parade looks to be the better of the entry. Has a win at the distance at BEL and competitive numbers. Radiator should be the speed in the race and given there isn’t much other front speed he may take the field all the way. Trophee will inevitably be flying at the end and success may depend on the pace and Alvarado’s ability to time the move right. Miss Chatelaine comes off a couple of decent runs in graded stakes. Will have to win coming from the farthest back.

Race 6      3-7-5

Scorecard Harry has been improving and moves over to the Mike Hushion barn for this start. He had a little trouble at the break in his last and could improve today. Loses some weight with the switch to Cancel. Dettifoss bolted in his last but in the prior start was a strong second. The figure from that race is competitive here. Blinkers come off in an effort to change the gate issues. Interior Secretary popped his best race last out and in a weak field is one of the stick-outs.

Race 7      6-10-1

Andalusite finally broke his maiden in his 9th start. This is a pretty weak field and he has a good chance to make it two in a row. Valuetempo has been knocking around at this level for a while with moderate success. Should be one of the ones battling up front and may have enough courage to hang on. Melville looks like the better of the two in the entry. Drops back to a more comfortable level today.

Race 8      11-2-1-10

The John Hettinger is definitely the feature race on today’s card. A number of runners are coming out of the Yadoo, and for the most part they are interchangeable here. We’ll start with Selenite. She stumbled at the start of that race but still was part of the finish. Her win at BEL was on a DQ, but she’s had some success over the BEL turf.  The Tea Cups is a sentimental favorite for me since that was my bet in the Yadoo. She’ll be winging from back in the stretch. Old Harbor ran a nice race in the Yadoo, tracking in fourth and not being able to keep The Tea Cups at bay. Invading Humor has seven wins in 17 races, including three wins at BEL and one at the distance. Should be in a good position early and we’ll see if she has the closing kick.

Race 9      11-1-8-7

Big Al Parker has taken well to the turf with a couple of better than looked races. Drops out of the MSW ranks to claimers today. Gets a switch to Saez for this run. Old Friend is another dropping out of the MSW ranks and should be winging in the stretch. The inside post might be a problem if Franco doesn’t find a clear route home. Mind Magic ran better at BEL than he did upstate. Was claimed by Mike Maker and he is a good 21% first time off the claim. Hunter Cat has one turf sprint to his name and will be part of the early scrum. Speed is always dangerous.