Very tough day today. I’ll be looking for spots.
Race 1 5-1-8
Mister Popsicle is the best front speed and has the best lifetime figure. Second off the claim for DJ. Mack Miller has not been having a great year (something you couldn’t say about his namesake) but drops by more than half in search of a win. If he runs to his previous figures he’s in the mix. Alysaro is the other figure horse. Four starts this year, three in the money. These three horses are likely the first three choices, but I simply couldn’t find a price horse that struck me.
Race 2 7-2-6
In this race there are a couple of horses that have started and a couple of first timers that seem to be in the mix. Hit It Once More already has two starts and in his last he hung tough until the end. Looks the best of the horses that have a start. Littlebitadominic goes for the talented Linda Rice. The workout pattern looks good and Jose Ortiz gets up. New York;s Zip is a City Zip colt starting for Leo O’Brien. O’Brien has lost a lot of his touch, but the workouts look decent and Johnny V takes the mount.
Race 3 4-6-7
Thundergram hasn’t been worse than second in his last four. No reason to expect any less today. Lietenant Seany O switched from low profile Lilli Kurtinecz to the well regarded Mike Maker. On his best day he fits with this group and at 12-1 he could be worth a long look. Infinite Midnight only has three starts and seems to be on the improve for Chad Brown. Most dangerous horse in a race is the rapidly improving three year old and this one fits the bill.
Race 4 3-5-7
Dynamic Decision is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and was claimed last out by the capable Danny Gargan. Sharp work since the claim. Chunnel was eased last out when in over his head. Fits much better in this group and his last trip at the distance had him just behind the top choice. Verger make his first start with winners after a sharp maiden victory. Another improving three year old , but you have to be concerned about Brown dumping the horse at a fire sale price. Still, may have the talent to beat a $40K field.
Race 5 (13) 7-10 (14)
Leaveematthegate is first on the AE list and if he makes it in should be the danger. Figures look dominant against this crew. Storm Prophet ran an even race last out and puts the blinkers on in an effort to get him focused. Mike Hushion is 26% with second time maidens. Borrowed Dreams outran his longshot odds in his debut race and earned a good enough figure to generate some interest. The Undersheriff improved markedly when moved to the turf. Big rider switch from Arroyo to Johnny V.
Race 6 4-2-5
Holdtherightcards had a troubled trip last out in a race that figured as a strong one. Is by a top sire of precocious young horses, Tiz Wonderful. Nevin is strong with second start maidens. Flexibility goes first time for the tough combination of Chad Brown and Manny Franco. Works suggest some talent. Spooked Out goes for Pletcher/Velasquez and he also has some good works.
Race 7 5-7-4
Make a Decision was claimed last out by Mike Maker after running second at this level at SAR. Maker has given the horse six weeks off and that should be enough time to get him pointed in the right direction. At his best he’s competitive with these. Ocala Jim is another entered for the tag. He had a bang-up year in 2014, but has had some trouble cracking the code this year. At his best he’s competitive with these. Payment Terms only has four lifetime starts, one of them in a state-bred stakes. He has two wins at BEL We’ll see if he can negotiate the stretch out.
Race 8 8-1-2
Reload was a G3 winner last year but has had an abbreviated campaign this year. Still, he has a win over the BEL turf at this distance and always seems to give a good effort. Inchcape has a similar running style to Reload and may actually be the one to catch. He’s another that has run a consistent set of top figures. Fredricksburg is a long 15-1 on the ML. He’s got a second and a third in his two races at BEL and should be able to get a comfortable position from the rail. Worth considering at the price. Notacatbutallama ran a great race against the top NY turf stakes horses in Lubash and King Kreesa in the West Point. Last race wasn’t bad, and I can excuse it because he came back in 11 days. He gets a more reasonable rest this time and certainly fits the price and distance.
Race 9 7-2-9-10
This race looks ultra-competitive on paper. I think I could make a case for seven of the runners. I’ll start with War Dancer. While he hasn’t won in 2015, he has been competitive in Grade 1’s. He has a nice tracking style and may find the cutback in distance more to his liking. Messi is devoid of any early foot, but showed a strong closing kick in his first two races in NA. He faltered in the Sword Dancer after a bobbling start, but Graham Motion brings him right back in another graded race. Besides, you can’t get too down on a horse that loses to Flintshire, Red Rifle and Twilight Eclipse. Mr. Speaker comes off a Grade 2 win at Laurel, but he is also 3 for 7 on the BEL turf. McLaughlin is shrewd with his horses, and usually has them wound up for big events like this one. Given the presence of mostly closers, All Included may inherit the lead. He’s lightly raced in comparison to some of the others but has won half his races. Dangerous if he goes to the front and is allowed to dawdle along.
Race 10 8-11-4
Reimburse is a juicy prospect at her 12-1 ML. In her first start she checked badly at the start, losing all chance. She was a bit awkward at the break in her second start but still managed to get up with the leaders. That 8th place finish is much better than looked. The cutback in distance may help and Lezcano’s return for the ride is a positive. Ava’s Kitten goes for Chad Brown after a very competitive race in the P G Johnson. Definitiely the maid threat. On Leave ran well first time for McGaughey and cuts back to the sprint distance today. Breeding says she is well suited for the seven furlongs and workouts say she iis ready to rock this time out.