No time to write up the analysis, so just the picks today.

Race 1.  1-2-4

Race 2.  Primary 5-7-6  Secondary (4, 9)

Race 3.  4-6-5

Race 4.  2-5-3

Race 5.  Primary 4-1-5  Secondary (6, 7, 9)

Race 6.  10-1-3

Race 7.  Primary 5-3-8  Secondary (4, 7, 10)

Race 8.  Primary 4-10-5  Secondary (3, 6, 7, 9)

Race 9.  Primary 8-6-4  Secondary (1, 3, 9)

Race 10.  Primary 6  Secondary (4, 5, 7)

Race 11.  Primary 3-9-1  Secondary (4, 6, 7 , [11, 12])

Race 12.  Primary 10-9-11  Secondary (4, 5, 12)

That makes two days in a row that the P4 paid over $2,500 and two days in a row where you could have had it if you followed my picks. Today Saratoga is trying to make up for some of the races that were washed out last week. With 11 races, some of the race analyses will be abbreviated.

Race 1. One More Round sticks out on figures here, but will have to contend with Chad Brown first timer Homewood Field. Clear the Mine has six previous starts and has shown some talent. Could be the one if either of the top two are not in top shape.  2-3-5

Race 2. Another race without a lot of clever analysis. Tashreeh is making a price drop and that should help him hold his speed better. Evolution had all sorts of trouble at the start last out but prior to that had been on a good streak. Steve’s Image hesitated at the break last out and that probably cost him any chance at the win. Should show better today.  1-7-4

Race 3. At the risk of sounding repetitive, the favorites look best in this race. Wellabled has a big number off his AP race. Freud’s Friend showed some courage in the stretch in winning his last race over this course. Iron Mane dominated a field at IND and runs for top 2YO trainer Wesley Ward.  1-5-6

Race 4. Finally a competitive affair. This one actually swings all the way to the other side with a lot of potential contenders. Burndines is the clear speed in this one. Anthony Dutrow hasn’t been spending a lot of time at SAR this year, but the horses he has brought in have been live. Speed has not been reliable on the turf, but he doesn’t have a lot to push him. Farhaan has a win at SAR this year to go with his win from two years ago, and McLaughlin brings him back at the same price. He doesn’t race often on the turf, but when he does he seems to run good figures. Abtaal ran third in the aforementioned race with Farhaan and could improve here.  Primary 7-10-3  Secondary 1, 5, 6

Race 5. Frankly you can’t immediately toss anyone out of this race. I’m putting Tale of Life, Doyouknowsomething, and Mr. Palmer constitute my top three, but you can’t immediately toss Transparent or Securitiz, and Muqtaser could be anything.  2-1-5

Race 6. This race has a lot of potential value. Prime Time Man goes for D Wayne Lukas. The coach is not nearly the trainer he once was, but he can occasionally recapture old glory. This horse broke slowly last out, but ran evenly and finished with a good figure. Maybe the sentimental pick, but he can’t be discounted. Approvethismessage may be the best of the speed horses, and he goes for Midwest trainer Stephen Lyster who has a pretty good win percentage. Castellano takes the ride. Mambo at the Gym seems to be suffering from some seconditis but has the figures to compete in this group.  Primary 10-7-3  Secondary 6,9

Race 7. Picco Uno hasn’t run a bad one in his short four race career and has the best last race figure. Jason Servis has been having a good SAR meet. Even Bette had no speed last out but still made a decent run to pass horses and get third. She should outrun her 15-1 ML odds today. Riot Worthy has been showing signs of seconditis but has still shown enough talent to be a factor here at the end.  Primary 8-2-10  Secondary 7, 9

Race 8. This is a confusing and competitive race. Startwithsilver has two good races in her last two turf starts. Linda Rice has been having a good SAR meet. My Kinda Gal has raced well since breaking her maiden. She should thrive at the sprint distance. Little Bear Cat has been in good form for David Cannizzo and gets an interesting switch to Irad Ortiz.  Primary 9-8-3  Secondary 2, 4, 5, 7

Race 9. In this race the favorites look best, although there are a number of contenders.  Primary 2-3-9  Secondary 4, 5, 6

Race 10. The Adirondack was one of the races cancelled on Saturday. The selections still stay the same. Primary 7-3-5  Secondary 2, 6

Race 11. Wide open race.  Primary 5-6-7  Secondary 1, 4, 9, 10

Pretty good day yesterday. The $2 late P4 came back at over $2,500, which makes two I’ve hit in the last week that paid over $2,500.  Another interesting weekday card.

Race 1. This race is ambiguous for me. Winter Springs was claimed by low percentage trainer Ray Handal from high percentage trainer Chad Brown. If Brown was still training the horse he’d be bet fairly heavy and deservedly so. But Handal is 0 for 8 first off the claim, and overall he’s 3 for 26 this year. Despite having good figures (for Brown) the Handal connection gives reason for pause. His distance breeding isn’t strong, but he has been with much better in the recent past. His Saratoga record isn’t strong either, but he adds blinkers. Overall, he has a reasonable chance of winning, but I’m going to go light in his direction. Neoclassic is a contender in this race, but he has been busy lately, racing opening week at SAR and then popping over to MTH where he didn’t really make an impression. Still, his SAR races have been pretty good and I give him a puncher’s chance in here. Dream Man is the likely favorite here despite having no experience at the distance, He switches to the Contessa barn for this run, and Contessa is not notable for his proficiency with new runners. His numbers look positive though. Artic North at least has been the distance, albeit with limited success. He doesn’t have impressive numbers, but he has been with better. Dendrite may be the surprise in the race. His numbers are enough to put him in the mix, and he could be the controlling speed in a race without much speed, but his win percentage is weak. Carlos Martin runs him back in five days, and if this is a serious move I think it may upgrade the horse.  5-4-1

Race 2. This seems to be a competitive affair. Ghareeb is one of the horses that doesn’t look like a winner to me, but could be part of the verticals. He’s got a second at the distance and a second at SAR. He looks better on the turf, but has some decent races on the dirt. Norm the Giant just won at PRX and steps up to the next condition. Another one that doesn’t get me excited in the win column, but has some prospects for the verticals. Swivel ran a decent race at SAR in the first week of the meet and he has an intervening maintenance work. His numbers are a little below the top contenders, but I like his chances in here. Don’t Point was gelded since his last. He’s another that has a win and is moving up to the next level. Can’t be underestimated as a win prospect. Shadow Rider threw in a clunker in his SAR race last out but he was clearly over his head. Prior to that he won at a higher price and off his best he is a serious contender. Chubby Master doesn’t have a ton of speed and will have to overcome the outside post, but he is dropping to a lower level. Another with vertical potential.  10-7-8

Race 3. Small field, but a competitive group. Breaking Bread was beaten by Carina Mia last out, and that one returned to win a graded stakes. The layoff gives some reason to pause, but given how well she ran first time out and the nice workout pattern, I’m putting her on top. Chase Motto looks very competitive in this group. She has a decent race over the track three weeks ago and should relish the distance. Fellini is making his 2016 debut and ran well in two races last year. She’s been well thought of and looks to be coming to the race off a nice series of works. Blenheim Palace was third in the race where Chase Motto finished second. That certainly puts her in the mix.  2-3-1A-6

Race 4. Not a lot of insight here. The horses that are likely to be bet look like the contenders. I have them ranked in the following order 7-3-1-5

Race 5. Something of a crapshoot. Divine Cause goes for George Weaver who has been having a somewhat disappointing meet. Still the works on the turf training track are encouraging. Reconsider It has excellent breeding for the turf and the distance, although the works are not inspiring. Both Impazible Angela and My Mission are well bred for the sprint. Very Fashionable may have the biggest advantage with Mike Hushion being the trainer.  6-5-2

Race 6. Another two year old affair. Ethan Hunt looks the best of the  horses with a start. Mirai goes for top conditioner Chad Brown. Chatter Pattern starts for the other good 2YO conditioner RuRod.  3-8-1

Race 7. Pretty decent field for a NW1X, but again, not a lot of insight. Malibu Stacy looked good in finishing second in the Victory Ride. Kelsocait and Fifth and Madison both are coming off impressive maiden wins and both should be battling up front. Inheritance and Open Arms are not without some small chances.  7-6-3

Race 8. This is a competitive race. Saratoga Dreamer has a win and a second at SAR and his most recent win at 7F at BEL was strong. The switch to Castellano should be helpful, but I’m resisting putting him in the top three. Dowse’s Beach only has two starts as a five year old  so he has room for improvement today. First, the horse seems to really enjoy the distance on Saratoga’s turf course. Irad Ortiz is his regular rider and has been doing well at SAR. Mosler will probably achieve favoritism. His last race figure dominates this field and his last two works suggest he’s raring to go. Flashaway has been gelded since his last start and is making his 2016 debut. An outside chance here. Night Officer is a specialist at the distance and is coming off a good race in the Turf Sprint at PIM. Sandy’z Slew is another with an outside chance.  4-2-7

Race 9. This version of the Union Avenue has a good field. Quezon is the likely second choice. Her figures are good, but do not soar above some of the others in this field. A prime contender. Court Dancer has an impressive win last out in a lower level, but given the condition she has an outside chance. Dr. Fager’s Gal ships in from California for Jerry Hollendorfer. She has consistent figures and I always like good sprinters from the West Coast. Perhaps the change in scenery will do her some good. Hot City Girl will probably go favorite at post time, but she is not unbeatable. She should be the one to catch, but there is a enough speed in the race so that she doesn’t get away with soft fractions. Familyofroses is another with an outside chance.  3-6-7

Race 10. While Slapstick will probably go favorite he’s making his eighth start and I’m not usually excited about horses having that much trouble breaking their maidens. He seemed to improve with the drop to MCL, and he deserves one more chance to crack the winners circle. 3-1-4

Late P4

7th  3, 6, 7  primary,  4, 5 secondary

8th  2, 4, 7  primary,  1,6,8 secondary

9th  3, 6, 7  primary,  4,8 secondary

10th  1, 3, 4  primary,  5, 7, 9 secondary

Race 2. Doesn’t look like a prime race for me. Jademarie has been turfing lately. She’s moving back to the dirt and is taking a pretty substantial drop in price. That may explain the 3-1 ML but her overall win percentage suggests she might need more to propel her over the top. Broadway Music Gal looks like the choice to me. She doesn’t often run a bad one and she has a win on the SAR dirt. Sole Victory just doesn’t look good enough here. I think Spa Town Parade is better than her 15-1 ML odds and she’ll make my top three here. She looked very good a few months ago, and frankly I think she’s been a bit over her head lately. Off her best she can be part of the verticals. Lutheran Miss is obvious here. She’s coming off a two race winning streak, but she is taking on a tougher group. Second choice for me.  2-5-4

Race 3. Not a lot of insight here. Askfor Forgiveness has a start over the track and some good figures, but she’ll get a lot of action. Must use in the horizontals though. Cash Considerations is the Chad Brown first timer. Sprinting on the dirt not Brown’s bread and butter, but you can’t leave her out. Wild With Style had all sorts of trouble with her first start over this SAR dirt, so she gets a second chance today. Leo O’Brien is not the trainer he once was, but he still can get it done.  4-5-1

Race 4. While Akatea and Industrial Policy both look tough in here, I’m leaning toward Darling Sky at 6-1 ML. She came to SAR live, running a good one to the solid Sentiero Italia. She is fast enough to get the win here and represents the value.  4-2-5

Race 5. Sugar Trip seems to stick out here and I’d consider using him as a single. In his first start he was green early, but showed speed and finished well, losing to a horse that won his next out with winners. His figure dominates the field.  9-5-3

Race 6. I’m going to step away from the favorites and go with Street Strut here. She broke slowly last out, stayed wide and fought traffic until deep in the stretch. It is well known that Bill Mott is not great with first timers, but is better with horses that have had racing experience. The likely favorite, Llanita, has had plenty of opportunity to win. I’m willing to take a chance against her.  3-6-1

Race 7. No insight here. The likely favorites look to be the best. Cort may have a a tactical advantage here, but was run down last time by Lord of Love.    6-4-3

Race 8. This race looks open after the scratch of Transparent. I’ll still stick with his entrymate, Indycott. While Don Dulce is coming off a long layoff, he’s run well fresh previously and has the best numbers overall. I think the upset prospect is Derby Glass. He was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen and and figures to be competitive with this group.   1-5-4

Race 9. This race looks full of speed and promising horses. I’m leaning toward Lull and China Grove. The former won impressively in her debut, while the latter has looked good against stakes competition. 7-9-2-1

Race 10.  6-4-8

Late Pick 4

7th  6,4 primary, 3, 5 secondary

8th  1, 4, 5 primary, 6 secondary

9th  7, 9 primary, 1, 2, 5, 8 secondary

10th  4, 6, 8 primary, 7, 9, 11 secondary

Yesterday didn’t start out so good, but in the 5th race one of my prime contenders, Zero Zee, was 19-1 on the board which merited a win bet. The $40 mutuel kicked off a good stretch. In the late P4, I wound up moving #5 Adulator to the primary contender category when he took some action and I noticed that Johnny V opted to ride this horse rather than one of the two Pletcher horses that were in the race. With the favorites running out and that horse paying a decent $10, it was a good start to the P4. In the 8th the heavy favorite Morandi ran out but my other prime contender, #4 Bigger Picture came in at $8.70. With that favorite out the P4 was primed for a nice payoff. In the 9th the top two picks Stallwalking Dude and Chief Lion triggered a $104 exacta, a $538 P3  and a lot of promise for the P4 pay. When 7/2 shot Know Your Customer won the last, the final P3 paid $466 and the P4 paid $2,590. If you followed me, you could have had a big day at the Spa. Even betting minimums you would have caught $1,150 worth of P3/P4 bets. I actually want to give a shout out to those who thanked me for giving them the opportunity to grab a quick grand in the last four races yesterday. Makes the extra work feel better.

Today may or may not turn out well from a weather standpoint. The forecast promised heavy rain during the day, but we’ll see what we can come up with.

In Race 1 even though Frosti Agosti is only 5/2 on the ML, the trainer change from Ray Handel to Chris Englehart is a huge positive, and the jockey change to Manny Franco from Emmanuel Esquivel is also in his favor. Call Me Stoney and Baby Bear’s Soup will probably garner most of the action, and they certainly look competitive, but I like the angle on the #2.

Race 2 is a mile and a 16th on the turf, with an overflow field. Ticonderoga goes first time for Chad Brown and that is almost a must use. Kiss the Toad tries the turf for the first time after sprinting on the main at BEL, and trainer Thomas Morley has brought his horses to SAR in condition. Formula One was a $1.7million purchase  by Lanes End Racing and trainer Shug McGaughey, although for some reason he’s only listed at 6-1 on the program. I like the workout pattern, and if this horse lives up to the potential they saw, you have to put him in. Harlan’s Hunch has a sprint on the turf where he just missed. Harlan’s Holiday horses have been running well as two year olds on the turf and given the experience and a good race I would think he has to be part of the horizontals.

Race 3 is another two year old maiden race, and I’m inclined to stay with the obvious horses. Everybodylovesrudy goes for RuRod, who has been good with young horses. He looked a little disinterested early, but in the stretch rushed furiously to almost nip the winner. Leviathan is the Pletcher/Velasquez runner and he is always dangerous in baby sprints at the Spa. If he takes a lot of action you can be sure he’s in to run.  Pretty Boy Flash has two starts for Steve Asmussen and looks to stretch out a bit. The other horse coming out of the One Liner race is Lookin At Blessing. He didn’t show much speed last time but really looks like he’ll prefer the longer distance. He’ll certainly be the long odds in the group.

In Race 4 there are a lot of prospects, although none of them really stick out. McIlroy has been close in his last two, but at 4-1 hardly creates excitement. Sportscaster is making a big drop in price and is coming off a good run at GP in March. Last race was the first of 2016 and came off a four month layoff, so perhaps he’ll be ready to roll today. Midnight Notes is always competitive, but has a miserable win record the last two years. Off his June 30 race he is a contender here. Sinatra is another that looks good in here, or at least as good as anything else. Finally, Dendrite has a win at SAR last year. The 3 for 30 lifetime win record is nothing special, but you’ll get huge odds.

Race 5 is another 2YO crapshoot, with the usual Pletcher/Velasquez runner.

Race 6 brings together a lot of horses with similar talent. Captain Gaughen, Coalport, Adirondack Dancer, Final Chapter and Changewilldoyagood all merit consideration. I’m especially looking at With Exultation. He ran a big race at SAR three weeks ago, and he’s been with graded horses before that. I think he’s in a good spot to win here.

No real insight in Race 7. Fifth and Madison looks strong for Pletcher/Velasquez. I think the primary threat comes from Steve Asmussen’s Inheritance, a $1.9million purchase that looked like a monster breaking her maiden at BEL. I like the way Asmussen’s brought her up to the race. Malibu Stacy can be given a lot of credit for her run in the Victory Ride right after breaking her maiden. I like the SAR works in prep for this.

My late P4 numbers:

Race 8.  8 primary , 4, 5, 9, 10 secondary

Race 9.  5,6 primary, 2, 3 secondary

Race 10.  The Fourstardave. I have to tell this story because it involves one of the runners in this race, Blacktype. A couple of weeks ago I was at the Haskell with my friend trainer Doug O’Neill to watch Nyquist run. There was a pretty good sized group gathered in one of the boxes to root the horse on, and when the Oceanport came up I mentioned to Tom Knust, Mario Guttierez’s agent how I could never seem to get on the right side of Blacktype, a horse I actually like. If I’m on him to win, he’s out of the money, and if I pass on him he’s a winner. So I was determined to get on the right side of him today. The horse in my way of betting Blacktype was Kharafa, a really good NY bred who was 9-1 on the board, vs. Blacktype’s 5/2. So I wound up betting Kharafa heavy to win, but used Blacktype and Kharafa in a pretty good size exacta box since I didn’t have other contenders. In the stretch Kharafa has the lead with Blacktype bearing down. Kharafa looks like he’s got the strength to hold him off, and for no good reason I thought I was in a good spot and said, hang on two. I might as well as said, slow down two, because at that exact moment  Blacktype inched by. Now the exacta was $47, so it wasn’t a loss by any stretch, but once again, I found myself on the wrong end of Blacktype – sort of. In any case, the numbers in the Fourstardave are 4, 5, 6 primary, 3,7, 9, 10 secondary.

Race 11  6 primary, 1, 2, 4, 9 secondary.  

I got lucky yesterday when even though 2/5 shot Call Provision won the 8th race, I managed to hook him up with some better priced horses in the P3 and P4 . Sky Chaparral paid $11.40 in the 7th, Free N Clear pulled a mild upset in the 9th at $19.60, and Light the Night came back at $15.80 in the 10th. I’m not sure it was a brilliant bet, but given how tough it was finding value, and two days of looking to make some sort of a move, plus deciding Call Provision was all but a lock, using some of the better priced contenders in the P3 and P4 at least satisfied the itch. The P3’s around the 5 paid $52.50, $144.50 and a healthy $346.50, while the P4 paid $1,654.

Today has a similar feel to it, with a number of races having similar looking contenders, and not many races having a stickout value horse. Here are some thoughts on the day.

Race 1 starts off with four of the horses looking like legitimate contenders. Undertherain has been knocking around at this level for a while. Her last race was probably the most impressive in a while, but I’m not impressed about her going favorite in this spot. Stormin Saratoga might wind up being the value horse in here. Javier Castellano is back in the saddle looking to duplicate his win from two months ago, and she puts the blinkers on for this trip. She might be my value horse today. Sweet Ella just broke her maiden for Pletcher, and if there is a strategic angle it is that Johnny V took the mount on this one when he may have had his choice between her and the horses above. The other horse that interests me is Eqho. Linda Rice just claimed the horse and wheels him back at the same price. Perhaps we have some  wishful thinking on her part, but I have a suspicion with a clean trip she’s a main contender.

Race 2 looks like Nuffsaid Nuffsaid will be the horse that gets the majority of the betting money. However, there are a lot of prospects for beating the horse, including Silver Slience, Valkimqua, Two Step Flor and Chickaletta. From my perspective it might be worth going deep.

Race 3 is another competitive affair. I’m looking at Lyrical Moment will get plenty of support because he is Pletcher/Velasquez. Same concept for My Fair Lily who goes for Brown and Castellano. The interesting horse may be Joannie who has one start for Bill Mott. Mott does not often bring horses to the track ready to give their best effort first out, but this one didn’t look bad in a decent maiden field. A couple of good works since make her my likely choice. Fired Up Sensation looked good dropping down to MCL, and bounces back up today.  Finally, Athena’s Aegis fits well in this group and Tom Morley is having a pretty good meet early on. She gets first Lasix after a couple of nice starts.

Not much insight in Races 4 and 5. Sophia’s Song will get a lot of action in the fourth and does look good. In the 5th, Jumby Bay goes for Pletcher/Velasquez, Victory to Victory is the good looking Mark Casse entrant, and Zero Zee goes for the solid George Weaver. For a longshot I’m looking at Irish Fix. 

The last four races are a bounty of contenders, and as I get closer to post time I’ll look at cutting down the possibilities, but these are the contenders as I see them. My late Pick 4 currently looks like this.

Race 7  –  3, 7 primary, 1, 2, 5, 8 secondary

Race 8  –  4, 8 primary, 5 secondary

Race 9  –  2, 7, 10, 11 primary

Race 10  –  2, 3, 11 primary, 7, 10 secondary

Whirlwind day yesterday. I spent most of the day talking with old and new friends – Andy Serling from NYRA, Eric Hammelback from the national HBPA, and trainer Gary Contessa to name a few. By the time the eighth race came around I hadn’t made a bet and couldn’t leave without spending a little money. Today is just as busy – some time on the backside and a few other interviews. But, I’ll find more time to invest today for sure.

The track stayed soupy yesterday, but two of the four races on the turf stayed. Today, the track is listed as good early but it looked pretty normal during morning workouts. I don’t like many races today, but here’s a few thoughts.

Race 2 has a small field of cheap horses. Ultra Arumba is dropping to half his last race price, but he hasn’t shown much since breaking his maiden on a sloppy CD track. The track today may still have some moisture, but won’t be soupy at all. At 7/2 ML she doesn’t much excite me. Megan’s Rose has 15 starts with one win, but a few in the money finishes. Another that could be used in the verticals but isn’t really bettable at the ML odds. Egyptian Rose is the favorite on the ML off a MC$20K win in her eighth lifetime start. If she wins, I won’t be collecting. Just Be Steppin actually has some positives, prepping in a series of turf races, then a sloppy track and short sprint on the synthetic at PID. The figures look positive but,  one big negative – a trainer who is 1 for 23 lifetime. Perhaps the value will be Lady Chocolatta. She showed a lot of speed early in her career, has clearly been over her head in her last four races,  If she can recapture prior form she’s got a real chance.

Race 3 is a bit of a crap shoot. Ventry Bay looks best of the first timers, and Caribou Club looks best of the horses who have started. I’d throw Gemologist in the mix because he’s had a start over the track. The connections are pretty light, but that race over the track is usually a powerful angle.

I’ve got no real insight in Races 4, 5, and 6. In Race 7 I’m leaning toward Playthatfunnymusic based on the troubled trip he had first time out and the fact that Irad Ortiz replaces J A Davis in the saddle. He also moves from the turf to the dirt, and his breeding really says dirt. In a race where the likely favorites are pretty obvious, he’s one of the few that you can speculate positively on.

Race 9 could be very formful, but I’m looking at 20-1 ML horse Sneaky Fudge Face. This 3YO filly was a little rank last race, but has a couple of positives. A race over the track and an ability to get the distance count in her favor. The downside? She’s a maiden racing against winners. She won’t be a prime bet or anything, but I might find a way to use her.  Highway Star, Frosty Margarita, Free N Clear, Louisville First, and Ametrine all have positives and should share the action enough that if you settle on one, you should get decent odds.

In Race 10 the horses likely to get bet look best on paper, but these last race maiden events can go to anyone. You can make a case for Consumer Confidence, Light the Night, Rate for Me, Virga, and Seize. One horse I will look at closely is Silent Mission who showed some ability to hold her speed longer in a 5F sprint and is listed at 12-1 on the ML.

I’m at Saratoga for the week, so if you are around drop me a message on Twitter (@rich_halvey) and we can make a plan to say hello.

It’s been pouring here in SaratogaSprings this morning, and I expect we’ll see some scratches and off the turf. As of 10:00, the Steeplechase race (first) is cancelled and races 3 and 10 are already off a turf that is labeled GOOD.

Here are a few horses I’m looking at today.

Race 2.  2 You Lie is likely to go favorite off the big drop in price. She’s got a decent wet track rating and has a win on a wet track, although her last sloppy track race she told the lead and faded badly. I’m more interested in 3 Sweetrayofsunshine going for David Jacobson. He has quietly had a decent meet upstate winning at 26%. The horse is another one taking a tumble in price off her last two, but she’s shown she likes the slop and has dominated at the lower price. For a price I’m throwing in 6 Miss Amalita who also has speed and a liking for the off going. She’s the price on the ML.

Race 5. 10 Wild Zambezi is taking a drop in price and has a win on a sloppy MTH track. Todd Pletcher often uses Saez so no issue with the rider. Pletcher often drops horses he’s looking to move out of his barn and you’ll be lucky to get the 7-2 ML. 2 Skill Not Luck drops in for Chad Brown, and while he is deadly with turf fillies, he’s a lot more ordinary with dirt colts. He should take to the wet track though. Still, at the likely price I’m not thinking he’s more than a part of a vertical. 5 Humboldt N Frost dominated a field at $16K two back, and Jose Ortiz who rode him in that race gets a return engagement . He’s been working well since his last and should take well to the slop.

Race 6. 1 Tizza Temper is the horse I’m interested in here. Tiznow progeny are usually good on the off going and at 8-1 I’ll be giving this horse a long look. The works are adequate and Jeremiah Englehart is  better with first timers than he is given credit for.

Race 8. The two horses I’m interested in here are 6 Wake Up in Malibu and 8 Three Alarm Fire. Both horses have wins on wet tracks and fit the race conditions very well. In the case of the 8, it appears he has complete disdain for GP where he has four starts and one second place finish. Otherwise his lifetime record would be a little more impressive. One big plus – he has a win at the distance at SAR on a slightly off track. The 6 comes off a win in a state-bred stakes. He’s shown plenty of early foot and is four for four in the money in the wet track.

Race 1

• 5  Conquest Lucknlove  6/5

• 3  Tailoredforsuccess  9/5

• 1  French Dressing  5-1

Race 2

• 7  Finding Candy  3-1

• 1  You Know I know  3-1

• 6  Box Office  4-1

Race 3

• 3  Magsamelia  2-1

• 1/1A  Miss Amalita/Katie O.  5/2

• 4  Saluda  5-1

Race 4

• 5  Midnight Champagne  5/2

• 4  First Service  3-1

• 3  Lady Luciano  5-1

Race 5

• 10  Barrel of Dreams  5/2

• 2  Indygita  7/2

• 6  Wild Chatter  4-1

Race 6

• 4  Cherry Lodge  3-1

• 5  In It for the Gold  4-1

• 1  Tickety Boo  9/2

• 10  Go Glam  5-1

Race 7

• 5  Kerjillion  2-1

• 2  Coco is Loco  3-1

• 8  Cliffs of Dover  4-1

Race 8

• 10  Mighty Souper  5/2

• 9  Fourstar Crook  3-1

• 6  Kathy’s Humor  4-1

• 2  Dreaming as Always  5-1

Race 9

• 2  Far From Over  2-1

• 1  Royal Posse  2-1

• 4  Touchofstarquality  4-1

• 5  Baccelo  9/2

Race 10

• 2  Awesome Boss  3-1

• 3  Dream Dancing  7/2

• 6  Joust 4-1

• 7  So Fancy  5-1

Race 1

• 2  Panama Papers  4-1

• 7  Giant Brownie  9/2

• 1  Brooklyn Bobby  5-1

As usual these 2YO affairs are wide open. Panama Papers is one of the horses with a start and stretches out to 8.5F. Given he is by English Channel he should have no problem with the stretch out. Giant Brownie is the other contender with a start and he also looks like he should have no issue with the additional distance. Brooklyn Bobby is by champion turf horse Frankel out of a turf winning mare. He’s low on the ML because of the breeding, but no way to tell if he is really a runner. Lynch is fair with first timers but asking for a horse to make his first start at a route from the rail is a tall request.

Race 2

• 7  Hieroglyphics  7/2

• 6  Northern  4-1

• 4  Tyler U  5-1

• 8  Practical Joke  5-1

The second is another tough 2YO race. Hieroglyphics is the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant, and you ignore that combo at your own peril. Northern goes for top 2YO trainer Wesley Ward. Tyler U has a start where he had the lead into the stretch and that had to help his racing education. While I usually prefer Chad Brown in turf routes with young fillies, but he is dangerous with first timers.

Race 3

• 9  Fearthefalcon  3-1

• 3  Lucky Town  7/2

• 8  Grand Sky  4-1

• 1  Euros to Dollars  5-1

Fearthefalcon has been taken up the price ladder by Klesaris and ran a good second at this level last out. Lucky Town broke his maiden for $40K two back and jumped up to a $50K starter where he had the lead for six furlongs.  Figures say he is a contender. Grand Sky broke slowly in his 2016 debut but showed some interest by passing horses. Interesting at 5.5F. Euros to Dollars almost wired a field last time in his 2016 debut. Some improvement makes him dangerous.

Race 4

• 3  Summer Revolution  8/5

• 2  Rich ‘n’ Tuck  3-1

• 4  Sir Alfred  4-1

Summer Revolution comes off a big win in his maiden debut and if he replicates that effort he looks fastest in here. Rich ‘n’ Tuck is one of those horses looking to finally win a NW1X. He is a hard trying horse with a good in the money percentage and the numbers to finally break through. Sir Alfred has never run a bad race and could be looking for three in a row if he hadn’t had trouble in his last. Looks like he is at the top of his form.

Race 5

• 2  Butler Field  5/2

• 6  Spuytan Duyvil  3-1

• 1  Tricked Up  4-1

• 5  Sport  5-1

This is a tough maiden event so I’m looking for horses with some upside left. Butler Field didn’t break well first time out at a sprint and didn’t get into the race until he passed horses late. Chad Brown is high percentage with second time starters. Spuytan Duyvil ships in from AP for solid trainer Michael Stidham. He showed good speed and stayed well in the stretch despite taking a bump. Tricked Up clearly needed his first race, especially after ducking out at the eighth pole. Brown has been hot at the SAR meet. Sport has been going longer and makes his fourth start. Could be a stretch factor.

Race 6

• 2  Fact Finding  3-1

• 3  Casses Story  4-1

• 6  Fillet of Sole  5-1

Fact Finding is the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant and first time 2YO at 6F on the dirt are his bread and butter at the Spa. Casses Story improved when stretched out to 6F at CD and should be part of the early pace. Fillet of Sole could be the value horse here. His last race was better than looked. He broke in the middle of the group, slipped toward the back of the pack, started to make his move around the turn and was stymied when wide, was in close quarters at the top of the stretch, started to move well when he looked like he wanted to duck in mid stretch. Once Saez got him straightened out he showed a lot of willingness to close. At 12-1 he deserves a long look.

Race 7

• 7  Full Mast  3-1

• 1  Shining Copper  4-1

• 2  Conquest Typhoon  5-1

This is a tough edition of the Lure. Full Mast comes off a good fourth in the King Edward at WO. He was a group 1 winner in France and should be in good form today. Shining Copper has been in nothing but Grade 1’s since last August and should appreciate dropping into a restricted stake. He should be part of the early pace and may have things his own way. Conquest Typhoon ships in for Mark Casse. He has graded credentials and should go off long odds today. Worth a look in the verticals.

Race 8

• 6  Lewis Bay  3-1

• 7  Off the Tracks  3-1

• 3  Kareena  7/2

• 8  Kinsley Kisses  5-1

Lewis Bay is one of the horses coming out of the Mother Goose and that looks like it may be a productive race. Although she finished behind Off the Tracks, the stumble at the start could have cost her the race. Off the Tracks won the Mother Goose and was second in the Acorn and the GP Oaks. Can’t be discounted here. Kareena is a lightly raced filly who is facing a huge test. I like 3YO on the improve  and Kareena fits that bill. Don’t care for the ML, but have to give the horse big chances today.

Race 9

• 9  Trophee  7/2

• 6  Guapaza  7/2

• 1  Photo Call  4-1

• 4  Real Smart  5-1

Trophee is good at the distance and has been successful on the SAR turf. Always seems to be close at the end. Guapaza has looked strong in graded stakes and now that Brown has her on the winning road, she should be a major factor here. Photo Call has been racing well with this sort of field and could benefit out of the inside post.

Race 10

• 4  Frosted  1-1

• 6  Effinex  5/2

• 3  Upstart  6-1

Given Frosted’s monster win in the Met Mile, it is hard to pick against him. However, Effinex is a legitimate Grade 1 horse and if any horse has a chance for an upset here it should be him.

Race 11

• 3  Stormy Victoria  3-1

• 1  Roca Rojo  7/2

• 4  Lady Lara  4-1

• 10  Zindaya  5-1

The De La Rose comes up just as tough as today’s other stakes. The Clement trained Stormy Victoria comes off a win in an OC$80K after a closing fifth in the G2 Nassau. Figures strongly at the mile distance. Roca Rojo makes his second North American start for Chad Brown after an impressive win at BEL. She has an impressive win in Europe at the mile and looks to be improving. Lady Lara is coming out of a series of graded stakes and has the best last race figure. Has to be considered.