All posts by richhalvey

Selections

Saratoga August 4 – Late Pick-4

Well I’m back and I’m mighty irritated that I missed the late pick 4 at Saratoga. It turns out that Bet America doesn’t take action from NJ, so my option was TwinSpires, which I had been boycotting in support of the Players Boycott. Anyway, I stuck to my guns, missed a nice payoff and for the rest of the week it is either the OTB or Monmouth.

RACE 6

This is state-bred stakes at a mile on the inner turf. It is a very competitive field, mostly because none of the runners really stands out.

  • 2 Takeoff Your Hat has been off since May 19 and only has one workout for his return. On her best day she is very competitive with horses of this ilk, but the time off with no work is concerning and Phil Serpe is not well known as a layoff trainer. I think you have to throw her on your tickets, but definitely an ambiguous play.
  • 3 Funky Munky Fever finished between Old Harbor and Lady Kreesa and came back to finish 4th in a $50K starter allowance. She comes from well back and is another one that would have to run a career race to win.
  • 5 Lady Kreesa is a lightly raced filly that is very eligible to improve. She adds blinkers today, although running toward the front hasn’t been a problem. She has worked steadily since her last and Johnny V stays aboard. Top choice.
  • 6 Old Harbor is likely to go off the favorite. She has a win over the SAR turf and has been competitive in most of her races. No surprise if she wins.

RACE 7

This is one of those races where no horse sticks out, so I generally look for horses that haven’t proven themselves to be professional losers or who have something positive to recommend.

  • 9 Thundering Gale is listed as the favorite and probably has the best combination of speed and closing ability. She’s run well fresh in the past and since being claimed by Chad Brown has been working regularly. I think Brown has a plan with Thundering Gale and it starts today with a win in a cheap NW2 claiming race. She is the top choice.
  • 7 Scribbling Sarah is the other X factor. She broke her maiden at SAR at today’s distance. She looked overmatched trying longer distances and was dropped to a $30K claimer in November where she was grabbed by Linda Rice. Rice gave her plenty of time off and she has three unspectacular workouts for her return, but I believe she was looking for a soft spot like this. She’ll likely come from off the pace, and if Cornelio Velasquez times it right she’ll have a chance to have her picture taken.

RACE 8

It’s another ambiguous race, meaning there are a number of horses that you could make a case for. I’m going to settle on three.

  • 4 Vicki’s Dancer has been best on the turf and has a competitive pace figure. She lost to Double the Energy at 7F but has the look of a runner that will enjoy the extra furlong. She has been working steadily since that last run and retains the services of Joel Rosario. She’ll be the top choice.
  • 5 Double the Energy has also been off since June 15, but only has one workout since. She has plenty of speed and Cornelio Velasquez may be able to nurse it to the wire.
  • 2 Unbelievable Dream is 3 for 7 at a mile on the turf. Like many of the others in this race she is coming out of the state-bred allowance race at 7F on June 15. She had to wait to make her move in the stretch in that race and still only lost by half a length. She’s had a little bit of trouble getting to the winner’s circle, but if she sustains her move she may just be first to the wire.

RACE 9

  • 4 Cast a Doubt has a pressing style and gets the services of Johnny V. He’s been consistent and seems ready to get back to his winning ways. Velasquez and trainer Bruce Levine have done well in the past but lately have not been a potent combination.  Even so, in this field if he runs his best he will win. Top choice.
  • 5 B Shanny is two for three at SAR. He had raced with much better horses in 2013  but in 2014 has been tumbling down the claiming ladder. Low profile trainer Assaf Ronen claimed the horse last out and his 1 for 10 record first off the claim  is not inspiring, but the short time off could get the horse back to form.
  • 11 Sense of Peace should be the controlling speed and is two for three this year. He is taking a slight drop in class, but $35K NW3 down to $20K open is not a precipitous drop. He is wearing a bar shoe, but he has run ok with a bar shoe previously. If he gets out well he could be hard to catch.
  • 9 Reserved Quality has had a busy 2014 with 10 starts, but he has been successful with better. He picks of the services of Corey Lanerie who really has looked a cut below the regular SAR riders, but is still a quality jockey. He’s one of the horses who should have a good position turning for home and could close for a piece.
Selections

Saratoga August 2 – Late Pick-4

This seems like a silly exercise. On  really big race days, the pundits absolutely drown you in race analysis. So I’ve decided to handicap the handicappers.

RACE 8

There is mostly agreement on this race. Three horses get picked on top – 1 Palace , 7 Vyjack and 5 Happy My Way. 8 Bakken also gets a lot of suport. Finally there is one sneaky pick for 2 Falling Sky. Palace looks very strong. He’s 10 for 10 in the money at 6F. Falling Sky really has the look of a horse that should have been sprinting all along. He seemed to be a “need to lead” type but in his last he tracked and finished well for the win. I actually think that at 6F he may run his best race. Happy My Way has shown nothing but speed in his last three starts and has won convincingly. He’ll have much more to contend with up front today. Bakken has only started four times but he has definitely impressed. He finished a close second to Palace last out. He wouldn’t be a shock. Vyjack has one win since his Jan 2013 win in the Jerome and that was for $100K OC. So some really strong thoughts on 1 and 5, some hopeful thoughts on 2, 7, and 8.

RACE 9

Nobody seems really sure here.  3 Sweet Whiskey, 5 Southern Honey, 6 Street Story, 7 Sweet Reason, and 9 Tea Time. Even the 10 Red Velvet and 11 Bird Maker have cropped up. Sweet Reason is the ML favorite, and in my world whenever I think a race is chaos, you can count on the favorite winning. Looks like an all race.

 

Opinions

The Turf at Old Del Mar

After the horse Seriously (previously named Lararus) went down the other day, Del Mar predictably took races off the turf again. Apparently the plan is to be back on the turf next Friday, but to limit the races to higher level ALW and Stakes.

I’m going to make this short. We need to know what is different about the turf course this year that could possibly explain why there seems to be a rash of serious injuries.

I know they expanded the turf course this year in order to compete for the Breeder’s Cup, and perhaps it just hasn’t matured completely. But I don’t know, and if they’ve announced what the issue is, it hasn’t been in a way that makes it clear to the betting public. Of course, in addition to doing some maintenance on the turf course, they moved the rail out. I guess all that didn’t work.

It simply isn’t enough to take the races off the turf. We need a tangible explanation that either puts the blame on the turf course or comes up with a better explanation. When the races go back on the turf, we need an assurance that the turf course is as safe as a turf course can be.

Enough is enough. Del Mar needs to get the problem fixed and they need to be totally transparent with the betting public. There is simply no other course of action.

Opinions

The End for Lavender Road

I blogged the other day about the incident with Lavender Road. If you hadn’t heard she scratched before the 7th race on Wednesday and as she was returning to the paddock she suddenly collapsed. She tried getting up and on her way back down she apparently hit her head on the padded rail. She tried getting up at least 9 more times, and 9 times she flopped right back down. Finally they sedated her and took her to the Rood and Riddle vet clinic.

Initially they though it might be her right foreleg but x-rays were negative. She seemed to be exhibiting symptoms of heat stroke and was treated for that, but when she didn’t respond as expected they did further x-rays. At that point they found a fractured vertebrae that could not be repaired and she was humanely euthanized.

Trainer Abigail Adsit had the horse since she was a weanling, so she is taking the loss very hard.

In my previous blog I gave high praise to Junior Alvarado who sensed  something was wrong with the horse in warmups and alerted the vet who then scratched her. Alvarado indicated that her strides were choppy and she was making strange sounds. I also think the track vets and attendants did their level best to treat the horse on the track.

Heat stroke would have been quite odd given that it was not hot and the horse hadn’t done more than warm up, unless the horse had some sort of inherent problem with heat dissipation. And the speculation was that the cracked vertebrae happened after she smacked her head on the rail.

But the question remains. What caused her to go down in the first place? Did no one see the signs before she got on the track? Was it perhaps a virus with symptoms that mimicked heat stroke? Could it have been the Lasix she was given on race day?

Abigail Adsit is like a lot of trainers. Her charges are like pets, and they are treated as such. But five years ago she was matriculating at Union College. Did her lack of experience as a trainer cause her to miss something? She obviously doesn’t have a big stable – she only had one other starter at Saratoga. It seems unlikely if the horse was stepping badly or was showing symptoms that looked like heat stroke that there wouldn’t have been some sign in the paddock.

The general sense is that we’ll never know what happened to Lavender Road to cause her to collapse on the track. It seems highly unlikely that a foreleg injury was the explanation, and while I’m not Maggie Wolfendale I watched the horse trot off after Alvarado dismounted and the horse did not seem to be seriously injured. People who were watching the horse thought that when she was up long enough she seemed to be favoring her leg, but she was never up for more than a few seconds. It didn’t look that way to me, but I’ll admit I was focused more on the fact that she looked pretty loopy. Ostensibly the x-rays on her foreleg confirmed that it wasn’t a bone injury anyway. The turn of events after she banged her head seem to have led to her ultimate demise, but again we may never know if the vertebrae was a prior problem or completely happened when she banged her head on the rail.

In my history of going to racetracks, Lavender Road was not the most obscene injury I’ve seen. The reason Lavender Road got so much press was that the whole thing took place in full view of the crowd. It’s hard to ignore a horse struggling as she was on the track and not have it have an impact. Most of the time horses are attended behind a screen out of view of the crowd. It was also hard to ignore that the 8th race was held up for close to an hour. Had she made it to the paddock and fallen over we may never have read about her. But in today’s facebook and twitter world, nothing publicly happens that isn’t making it’s way around the planet 30 seconds later.

I think the stewards need to at least do a little investigating and rule out either prior injury or a medication problem. This would certainly be in the best interests of the racing public, but moreover it could fully keep negative speculation about Abigail Adsit from circulating.

Selections

Saratoga August 1 – Late Pick-4

Well Thursday’s first race had gone off when the skies opened up and I mean buckets came down for 20 minutes or so. By the time the storm passed they had knocked all the remaining turf races off the turf. Of course an hour later the sun came out and the day turned glorious. I have a feeling part of the reason the races went off the turf is because they couldn’t afford to chew up the course with Whitney weekend coming up. Anyway, it made the late pick-4 a lot less handicapable and I wasn’t in a position to change my blog selections. I’m not sure i would have had any of the race winners.

I expect the turf races will be back on Friday, and the main track will probably start out as good.

RACE 7

This 5 1/2F sprint on the turf looks very formful.

  • 7 Soul House seems best at the sprint distance. There really isn’t a meaningful class drop – $40000NW2L is not a lot different than statebred NW1X. The down side – he doesn’t look like a horse that digs in in the stretch.
  • 8 Shore Runner is taking a class drop from his last, but seems to finish second or third in starter alw, claiming NW2L and Alw NW1X. He has a great number and if you believe he will show a little more heart is the fastest. But….
  • 10 Lunar Tales is the sort of horse I really gravitate toward in these sort of races. He has a nice 5F race third back, broke his maiden at a mile two back, and lost in his NW1X but was flattered when the winner of that race won a $62K OC. Fast enough and should show good stretch courage. Top pick.
  • 12 Pirate’s Pleasure was just claimed at this level by Michelle Nevin who is 28% 1st off the claim. The down side – he’s had plenty of chances to make it to the winner’s circle for the second time. Love the last 3F work. If you believe Nevin makes the difference, he could steal the race.

RACE 8

This mile and a sixteenth affair is filled with ambiguous horses. 2 Call Wil has some talent, but struggled at the $25K OC level. 3 Smokey Brown has a burgeoning case of seconditis. 5 Permanent Campaign needed 7 races to break his maiden but only finished a half length behind Smokey Brown in his last. 7 Jigsaw just broke his maiden for a $40K tag and takes a jump up in his first with winners. 9 Old Upstart fits the class, has plenty of speed, but hasn’t been on the turf. All these horses could be contenders.

  • 6 Aripeka has four starts with three in the money finishes. He’s been off since December but his 3YO figures are competitive with this group. If Maggie W gives him a nod I’d see him as the top choice.
  • 11 Arch Avenger is another 1st off the claim for Michelle Nevin. Obviously he was well thought of at one time. He was a $425K yearling purchase and was given to Todd Pletcher who raced him four times and then pretty much gave up when he entered him in a MC $20K. He won that race by 10 lengths, came back at a $40K NW2 and just missed. He’ll have to overcome the outside post, but he has enough speed to get a good position. I think he’s worth a long look.

RACE 9

This is another dart board race.  I’m going to look for a horse that has some consistency in restricted stakes

  • 3 Free as a Bird seems to have bloomed in her 2014 starts, not finishing worse than second. She’s also listed at 5-2, and I think would be slightly underlayed at that price. She has a nice second on the SAR turf at a mile. Top choice.
  • 5 Munnings Sister is the fastest horse in the race and has consistently tried Grade 2 and 3 races, although with only mild success. If you read my blog on turf racing, you’d know that I think turf breeding is irrelevant at short distances if a horse shows good speed on the dirt.  At 5-1 she’s worth a good look.
  • 6 Jewel of the Cat is another one who is a restricted stakes specialist in turf sprints. She has a win at SAR at today’s distance. She should be in the mix.
  • 10 Madame Guy is a fast turf sprinter and just won an open 5F stakes. She looks like more the sustained run type and from the outside post might have some issues getting a good spot turning for home. Probably most likely to hit one of the back holes.

RACE 10

I’ll be consistent. Horses like 3 All Cash are mostly sucker bets. No matter how fast they look, they just don’t seem to want to pass all the horses. In his last three races he hasn’t gone off above 7-2. He eats money.

  • 4 Morse is listed at 20-1 and has as good a chance as any horse. He was just claimed by anonymous (at SAR) trainer David Cannizzo who is 2 for 3 at Saratoga. He’s shown good speed at this level and only lost to Dividend (6-1) by half a length. Why not? I’ll make him the top choice.
  • 7 Dividend fits the class, was just claimed by John Terranova and Irad Ortiz stays aboard. He’s certainly eligible to improve enough to win the race.
  • 8 Deimos dropped into a MC and seemed to wake up. His figures make him competitive.
  • 9 All My Tails is dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time. Johnny V stays for low profile but competent trainer Michael Dilger. You simply have to use horses that are first time MC, especially with only three starts. I think this looks more like the trainer is being realistic as opposed to desperate.
  • 11 C’S Smart Strike puts blinkers on . His last race was slow at the  beginning but sped up nicely. In a race with a few contenders, he’s one of the horses that figures to have a chance. The outside post doesn’t help, but perhaps the blinkers will encourage him to get a good striking position early.
Uncategorized

Saratoga July 31 – Late Pick-4

Hard to say what the weather will be. It looks like rain is moving in, at least a possibility of showers in the afternoon so the later turf races might get moved.

RACE 7

This is not a straightforward race, and $25,000 starter allowances tend to be that way.

  • 1 Treasury Devil seems to like winning on the turf. Rudy Rodriguez claimed him last time, and Rodriguez is 31% 1st off the claim, although at SAR he’s been ice cold. In 2014 Treasury Devil seems to be at his best at a mile and a sixteenth, but he has gone longer.
  • 2 Media Kid. He’s been right behind Grand Rapport a couple of times and has about the same figures. But if you buy the handicapping philosophy that some horses just have other horse’s numbers, he may wind up second again.
  • 3 Grand Rapport. He fits about every way there is to fit and has a race over the track. 3-1 in the program, and you may be lucky to get that.
  • 4 Majestic Raffy is another one with a race at SAR, but he hasn’t won for two years. I’d say a minor player here.
  • 8 Sayler’s Creek had a win at BEL in May before beating up on a couple of Parx fields. My second choice.
  • 12 Manchurian High. Ran in the United Nations, a Grade 1, last out. He didn’t beat anyone, but he did top a 10-horse field in May at Pimilico. Another minor player.

RACE 8

Of the horses that have turf form four stick out.

  • 5 Shaun’s Blessing is one of those two start horses that has every right to improve. A definite contender.
  • 6 Storm has been racing well against state-breds. He wouldn’t be a total shock but I think he’s not as likely as some.
  • 7 Tiger Bourbon gets the top nod. He’s raced with better, including a Grade 2 at SAR last year. I think his last race is better than looked.
  • 9 Los Borrachos seems to have gotten a little high on the grass. A fast race last out and another improving 3 YO.

RACE 9

The feature is the Evan Shipman for state breds on the main at 1 1/8 miles.

  • 4 Sailmate has been knocking around with optional claimers but has run some fast races. I’ll be giving him consideration.
  • 6 Escapefromreality won the Albany last year at SAR at today’s distance. He finished just behind Sailmate in his last, but given that was his first race of the year I think improvement is more likely. The top pick.
  • 7 Awesome Vision has been knocking around with this kind for a while and is usually competitive. He hasn’t found his 2013 form yet, but with a win and a second at SAR, he could be the danger.
  • 8 Big Business is listed as the 9-5 favorite and loves to win. I think he has all kinds of chances, but I’m going to make him a play against today.

RACE 10

  • 2 Anmaat could be a single for me. He broke his maiden at the mile distance and didn’t race badly at BEL in his first race back after a 4 month layoff. This is a significant drop in class and I think that should put him over the top.
  • Most of the other contender look like professional NW2 horses. The 5, 7, 10, 11 and 12 are a combined 5 for 164. That doesn’t inspire confidence. Perhaps one of the other less heavily raced horses can surprise, but I think I’ll stick with Anmaat.
Opinions, Stories and Reporting

Lavender Road at Saratoga

Today’s 7th race was a $50,000 starter allowance for fillies and mares on the turf.

The  1 horse, Lavender Road  never made it to the starting gate.

While the horses were warming up and before they made it on to the turf course, Lavender Road was scratched. There was a lot of chatter about whether it was the jockey or the vet who scratched the horse, but it really doesn’t matter. From my vantage point it looked like Junior Alvarado initiated the scratch, telling the vet she was warming up poorly and making strange noises. Alvarado may have saved Lavender Road’s life because as they were leading her off the track she collapsed.

Clearly she was disoriented and in bad shape. The vets and track staff worked furiously to bring her back around, even starting an IV and  packing bags of ice around her. She tried getting up six or seven times, but collapsed back on the track each time. Finally, they managed to sedate her and load her into the horse ambulance and she was taken to the highly regarded Rood and Riddle Vet Clinic.

I would give the highest marks to Junior Alvarado, the track staff, and the vets for how they handled the situation. I’d also give high marks to the track for holding the 8th race up for an hour while the vets worked on Lavender Road. The potential biggest losers were the horses in that 8th race who had to walk endlessly around the saddling trees in the paddock, but incredibly they stayed calm and managed to run a fairly predictable race.

So why the blog? Two things. Trainer Abigail Adsit  doesn’t start many horses in New York. In fact, Lavender Road was her second starter at the meet. I don’t know anything about Adsit, but I have to wonder how the horse made it on to the track in the first place. Second, I’d be very interested to know if medications might have had anything to do with it.

I’ll tell you what I don’t think it was. The weather. It was not hot. The NYRA web site showed the temperature was in the 60’s at first post and it really didn’t get a lot warmer. It wasn’t one of those brutal northeast days where everything wilts.

I think the betting public deserves an answer. I believe we need to know how the horse got out of the paddock and what exactly happened to cause her collapse. I believe we are owed some sort of investigation into trainer Adsit’s training methods. There were people on the public media expressing sympathy for Adsit. I’m holding off feeling bad for Adsit until someone says she did everything right and it was just one of those unfortunate things. Now read that carefully. I’m not accusing her of any mismanagement. I’m simply saying until we know the whole story let’s hold off on making any conclusions one way or the other.

Horseracing suffers enough bad publicity. When this sort of thing happens at one of the biggest race meets of the year, only the transparency of full disclosure makes sense for Saratoga and horseracing in general. I hope we get the answers we deserve.

Selections

Saratoga July 30 – Late Pick 4

Update: Total bonehead in the blog. By the time I got to the 7th race the drumbeats for Ear D’Rhythm were pounding in my ear and I realized I had wrongly overlooked the horse. Worse, it seemed like everyone knew it because she dropped from 6-1 at the opening to 5-2. Big apologies to anyone who read the blog. I hope you figured out the 4 anyway. Otherwise it was a pretty easy pick-4. La Madrina was a clear winner in the 8th.  Stars Above Me exploded through the stretch to take the 9th. Candir won the 10th at almost 9-2 and Uptown Joe completed a $76 exacta so there was some consolation to the day. I made a lot more in the 10th race  than I would have betting a 50 cent pick-4.

The main track looked like it was back to fast, and the forecast is for cooler temperatures with a possibility of a scattered shower. That means if it rains, it will be directly over the track. Three of the last four races are on the turf, and if they decide to run on the lawn it should still be soft or yielding. I’m going to handicap for on the turf. I’ll admit that when races go off the turf I lose my enthusiasm.

It’s Wednesday which means today’s stakes race is a 5 1/2 furlong affair on the turf.

RACE 7

There is not really a stickout in this race, which usually means either the crowd favorite wins or a bomber comes in.

  • 2 Casey Roo is one of the contenders. She has two decent races on the turf and was claimed out of her last by Richard Schosberg. Schosberg is not known as a miracle worker when it comes to claims, but either Jonny V knows something or Casey Roo was the best he could come up with in his battle with Javier Castellano, She broke her maiden for $40K on the turf at 5F and has never been the mile distance, although she has plenty of turf distance breeding. I can’t imagine she’ll be 10-1 at post, but if she is I’d be a little concerned.
  • 3 Benny’s Bullet seemed to be suffering from seconditis until she broke her maiden in a $40K claimer. Then, even though she went back to finishing second, Gary Gullo decided to take a chance by claiming the horse. He’s another one that isn’t known for his first off the claim. He puts blinkers on and puts Irad Ortiz in the saddle, at least a slight upgrade from Rosario Montanez. She’s another one that doesn’t look like she’ll go off as high as her ML odds of 5-1. She’ll be the top choice, but barely.
  • 7 Sundae School has a 17-1-4-5 record. She broke her maiden in a mile dirt event for $25K then went right back to finishing behind horses. She’s certainly fast enough and has plenty of experience at the distance, but I just have an impediment when it comes to horses that seem more inclined to finish in the money. She fits and could inherit the win, but I when it comes time to push the send button, I’m not sure she’ll be on the ticket.
  • 8 Wine Burglar broke her maiden in her 8th start, and ran respectably in a $50K starter allowance. I think she looks like a horse that matured from 3 to 4 and could improve. She showed a nice pressing style in her last. A close second choice.

RACE 8

  • 2 Ocean Boulevard was in two stakes races in her last two of 2013 after breaking her maiden at Saratoga. She’s not the fastest horse in the race, she’s been off nearly 9 months, and she has pretty ordinary workouts for her return. I think that you have to include her because the return is in a NW1X.
  • 4 Tiz May West won first time out last June and came back a year later and ran a competitive race at CD. She has every reason to improve. I’ll make her top pick.
  • 5 Eddy Gourmet ran a monster race on the dirt at Delaware last out after spending most of her career on the turf. Hugh McMahon is one of those competent mid-Atlantic trainers who comes to Saratoga with a few promising horses. I don’t think you can dismiss the horse out of hand.
  • 6 La Madrina has run two nice races at 7F. As long as she doesn’t lose contact with the pack she has a legitimate chance.
  • 7 Dear Mama ran a very nice 6 1/2 F race at BEL first out in America. She’s a temptress in this field.
  • 11 Love You Loads finally broke her maiden for Todd Pletcher at MTH. She has plenty of speed and Joe Bravo comes in to ride her.

RACE 9

  • 3 Burn Control has two nice races at Parx. Frankly, I think the snootier NY handicappers dismiss the horses from a cheaper circuit out of hand, but until someone beats her, I think you have to put her in the mix.
  • 7 Stars Above Me is a speedster from England that gets Graham Motion, Irad Ortiz and Lasix. She’d certainly be value at 5-1.
  • 9 Isabelle looks like one of the horses that is hoping for the race to move to the dirt. If it doesn’t I still think she is fast enough to lead this field to the wire.

RACE 10

Although this race is carded at a mile on the turf, only 7, 8, and 12 even have a race on the turf.  Sort of looks like a bunch of horses are hoping for a shift to dirt. Pletcher sends out the first-timer 5 Same As and Velasquez gets the ride. The horse is listed at 5-1 on the ML, and she is getting some hype. I really don’t like the workout pattern  and he would be a bet against for me. 2 All the Way is also getting some hype, mainly based on his sibling and dam. I’m not initially interested, but if he gets live on the board I’d take a second look. If the race moves to the dirt, I’d really monitor the action on the MTOs. Neither sticks out. 10 Alexndeed moves way up on the dirt and would be a must use. 9 First Bid, the other Chad Brown trainee is another that moves up on the dirt.  The turf choices are below.

  • 7 Uptown Joe has turf experience and his figures aren’t bad. Other than the AE’s , he at least has decent turf form.
  • 11 Candir is well-bred for the turf and should improve on that surface. He gets a trainer switch to Chad Brown and a modest jockey improvement to Javier Castellano. He’s not a stickout – in fact, I’d say he’s underlayed at 7-2, but he may get excessive action because (1) there isn’t much else to take action and (2)  Brown/Castellano is a 30% combo. That means if you know nothing at all about horseracing and you bet that combo every time, you’d actually be making 1.5 cents on the dollar. On the other hand, they are in the slushy, if not frozen stage, at the Spa with zero wins in 5 starts. Perhaps they are due.
  • Both of the AEs, 13 Jimmy Soul and 14 Jimmy Fillpot are on the must use list if they scratch in.
Opinions

Do We Ever Blame the Horse?

Yesterday was a pretty good day for upsets. Untapable got drubbed by Bayern (as did every other horse in the Haskell). Goldencents was held at bay by Big Macher. Every time this happens it almost seems to become personal. And then the excuses fly.

  • Untapable was wide around both turns.
  • Goldencents was at the wrong distance.
  • Bayern fell into a highly speed favoring track.
  • Goldencents didn’t get into the bit until late in the race.
  • Social Inclusion was apparently suffering Lasix withdrawal (some humor) and was fractious in the gate, bothering Untapable.

I have an interesting explanation. Bayern and Big Macher were better horses in those races. Just because the crowd makes a horse the favorite doesn’t mean the horse is the best horse IN THAT RACE. The crowd is wrong about that 65% of the time.

Untapable was never going to live up to her hype in a field with the talent the Haskell had.  In her last race she swamped Princess Violet, a horse still eligible for NW2X and America, a horse eligible for NW2L.   My Miss Sophia and Unbridled Forever, the place and show horses from the Kentucky Oaks aren’t a lot more distinguished. I’m just going to ask you to think about this. Substitute Bayern for Untapable in the Mother Goose and speculate on the winning lengths.

Untapable was more an example of a hype horse, a horse people just wanted to see succeed. Anyone who said Untapable was completely outless in the Haskell would have been pilloried on social media. Is she a prize filly? You bet. Is she Rachel Alexandra? Not yet.

I’ve been in horseracing long enough to know that sometimes horses lose because they get poor trips. Sometimes they lose because they run into a bias that is against their running style. Sometimes they lose because they are sprinters trying to get a route and sometimes they are routers trying to sprint. And apparently they lose because other owners cheat and enter their fresh horse against your tired runner. But most of the time, horse lose because they are not as good as the winner.

It’s human nature to think you lost because things went wrong. But I, for one, am kind of tired of reading about all the reasons why the favorite lost. How about trying this one on for size. There was a better horse in the race today.

Opinions

Distasters at Del Mar

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So Del Mar decided to make a wider turf course in an attempt to attract the Breeder’s Cup. Apparently that was what took them past the finish line. 2017 is BC at the beach.

But something went wrong in the first two weeks of the meeting. Four horses have been put down after racing on the turf. Here is Del Mar’s statement:

“Del Mar is deeply saddened by the loss of Thoroughbred lives we have experienced at the track since the start of our season. Four of those losses have come on our new turf course. Despite that, we continue to have the utmost confidence in the course, as do our partners in this race meet — the Thoroughbred Owners of California, the California Thoroughbred Trainers, the Jockeys’ Guild and the California Horse Racing Board – all of whom have expressed that confidence to us today.

Nonetheless, as a precautionary measure, Del Mar will shift the two turf races scheduled for Sunday’s card off the course and run them instead on our main track. Additionally, we will move up scheduled maintenance on the turf course to Saturday evening instead of the Sunday evening schedule that had been planned. The entire course will be aerated and watered starting on Sunday. Track crews will work on it for the next three days and, in the end, reposition the inner rail at the 18-foot position.”

Track officials feel that they are adjusting on the side of caution with these moves. They are meant to give all parties involved – riders, trainers, owners and fans – assurance that everything possible is being done to ensure the track’s first priority, which is safety of horses and riders. Those same officials feel strongly that when racing resumes on Wednesday, the turf course will perform in a positive fashion.

So this is my interpretation of the statement.

Yeah, four horses broke down, but we don’t think it was the turf course. But, we realize that if another horse breaks down before we move the deck chairs around, we’ll have a shitstorm to deal with so we’re going to take racing off the turf.

Del Mar will aerate the course first. The purpose of aeration is to allow nutrients and water to get to the roots of the grass, and it is often used when soil is highly compacted.

So either the turf course was as hard as a rock, or they just had to do something and aeration was the first thing that popped up. I’ve written earlier about turf racing in America. The courses drain poorly, resulting in races being removed from the turf after a rain. Turf courses, other than at a few tracks, are really the stepchildren of the racetrack.

The other thing I’ve noticed is that California turf courses look like putting greens, while eastern turf courses look like the rough.

I’m going to flat out say this. Turf racing is inherently safer than dirt racing. The ground is softer, and as I’ve mentioned in my previous blog, horses don’t slide on the turf like they do on the dirt or synthetic. The roots of the grass stabilize the stride. Del Mar took great pains to issue a statement that said nothing was wrong – they just figured they’d come down on the side of caution. Let’s face it. To admit your turf course is unsafe really screams that the maintenance folks have done something wrong, either the wrong type of grass or poor maintenance practices. And if that is the case, somebody might just scream negligence.

I mean, assuming there was something wrong with the turf course.

The other thing Del Mar is doing is repositioning the rail. I assume this is so that horses are racing on the older, more mature part of the turf course and the turns aren’t quite as sharp. But again, if they think the rail was not in a good place, they are in essence admitting there was a flaw in the track.

There is another possibility of course. It just happened to be Del Mar’s bad luck to have four horses ready to break down racing on the track. From the reading I’ve done, catastrophic injury is usually not a random event.  Horses have multiple injuries which over time pile up until one day – snap! I’m not sure I’ve heard anyone say, maybe it’s the trainers who aren’t diagnosing these injuries, or maybe they are just filling their horses up with anti-inflammatories and analgesics to keep them on the track. As long as we are speculating, it’s at least as much a possibility as poor track maintenance.

I’m going to mention one other thing. If you are a veteran jockey, you have to know when horses are not traveling well because the course is not right. You have to feel the difference. Nobody else has the perspective of the person sitting on the back of a charging thoroughbred. Did the jockeys ever say anything? Hey, the course is hard as a rock. Or, my horse is sliding all over the place. I’m pretty tired of jockeys refusing to speak up for fear that a petty trainer will take them off a mount, or they’ll get a reputation as a complainer. I have to believe if ALL the jockeys adopt the same attitude the concerns related to trainers would be obviated. Jockeys are flat out risking their bodies every time they ride, and if they believe the course is some way or another “unsafe” they need to speak up.

We all want it to be the track because that is an easy fix. Pull some plugs, soak the grass, move the rail and we’re good to go. But we absolutely have to know if it is the horses. I understand that there are necropsies scheduled. I hope they are thorough in describing not only the horses’ injuries, but what other contributing factors may have been at work. Mostly I hope they make those results public. The people risking their money on thoroughbreds have the absolute right to know why horses they bet on couldn’t finish a race.

Tracks are hesitant to ever criticize owners or trainers. They are the life blood of the business (well, except for all the bettors who pay the bills). But sooner or later this boil is going to burst. For every Pletcher or Baffert that can afford to treat their horses like house pets, there are dozens of marginal trainers who have to find ways to keep horses running in order to pay the bills. I just have a hard time believing that the blame isn’t proportioned in some way between the jockeys, trainers and track maintenance people. Do I know the proportion? I wish I did.

But, it can’t be as simple as, it’s 100% the track. Let’s not just make a few simple changes and expect that is the end of breakdowns. Let’s really dig into the problem and find some answers, even if they are the hard answers.