Well Thursday’s first race had gone off when the skies opened up and I mean buckets came down for 20 minutes or so. By the time the storm passed they had knocked all the remaining turf races off the turf. Of course an hour later the sun came out and the day turned glorious. I have a feeling part of the reason the races went off the turf is because they couldn’t afford to chew up the course with Whitney weekend coming up. Anyway, it made the late pick-4 a lot less handicapable and I wasn’t in a position to change my blog selections. I’m not sure i would have had any of the race winners.

I expect the turf races will be back on Friday, and the main track will probably start out as good.

RACE 7

This 5 1/2F sprint on the turf looks very formful.

• 7 Soul House seems best at the sprint distance. There really isn’t a meaningful class drop – $40000NW2L is not a lot different than statebred NW1X. The down side – he doesn’t look like a horse that digs in in the stretch.
• 8 Shore Runner is taking a class drop from his last, but seems to finish second or third in starter alw, claiming NW2L and Alw NW1X. He has a great number and if you believe he will show a little more heart is the fastest. But….
• 10 Lunar Tales is the sort of horse I really gravitate toward in these sort of races. He has a nice 5F race third back, broke his maiden at a mile two back, and lost in his NW1X but was flattered when the winner of that race won a $62K OC. Fast enough and should show good stretch courage. Top pick.
• 12 Pirate’s Pleasure was just claimed at this level by Michelle Nevin who is 28% 1st off the claim. The down side – he’s had plenty of chances to make it to the winner’s circle for the second time. Love the last 3F work. If you believe Nevin makes the difference, he could steal the race.

RACE 8

This mile and a sixteenth affair is filled with ambiguous horses. 2 Call Wil has some talent, but struggled at the $25K OC level. 3 Smokey Brown has a burgeoning case of seconditis. 5 Permanent Campaign needed 7 races to break his maiden but only finished a half length behind Smokey Brown in his last. 7 Jigsaw just broke his maiden for a $40K tag and takes a jump up in his first with winners. 9 Old Upstart fits the class, has plenty of speed, but hasn’t been on the turf. All these horses could be contenders.

• 6 Aripeka has four starts with three in the money finishes. He’s been off since December but his 3YO figures are competitive with this group. If Maggie W gives him a nod I’d see him as the top choice.
• 11 Arch Avenger is another 1st off the claim for Michelle Nevin. Obviously he was well thought of at one time. He was a $425K yearling purchase and was given to Todd Pletcher who raced him four times and then pretty much gave up when he entered him in a MC $20K. He won that race by 10 lengths, came back at a $40K NW2 and just missed. He’ll have to overcome the outside post, but he has enough speed to get a good position. I think he’s worth a long look.

RACE 9

This is another dart board race.  I’m going to look for a horse that has some consistency in restricted stakes

• 3 Free as a Bird seems to have bloomed in her 2014 starts, not finishing worse than second. She’s also listed at 5-2, and I think would be slightly underlayed at that price. She has a nice second on the SAR turf at a mile. Top choice.
• 5 Munnings Sister is the fastest horse in the race and has consistently tried Grade 2 and 3 races, although with only mild success. If you read my blog on turf racing, you’d know that I think turf breeding is irrelevant at short distances if a horse shows good speed on the dirt.  At 5-1 she’s worth a good look.
• 6 Jewel of the Cat is another one who is a restricted stakes specialist in turf sprints. She has a win at SAR at today’s distance. She should be in the mix.
• 10 Madame Guy is a fast turf sprinter and just won an open 5F stakes. She looks like more the sustained run type and from the outside post might have some issues getting a good spot turning for home. Probably most likely to hit one of the back holes.

RACE 10

I’ll be consistent. Horses like 3 All Cash are mostly sucker bets. No matter how fast they look, they just don’t seem to want to pass all the horses. In his last three races he hasn’t gone off above 7-2. He eats money.

• 4 Morse is listed at 20-1 and has as good a chance as any horse. He was just claimed by anonymous (at SAR) trainer David Cannizzo who is 2 for 3 at Saratoga. He’s shown good speed at this level and only lost to Dividend (6-1) by half a length. Why not? I’ll make him the top choice.
• 7 Dividend fits the class, was just claimed by John Terranova and Irad Ortiz stays aboard. He’s certainly eligible to improve enough to win the race.
• 8 Deimos dropped into a MC and seemed to wake up. His figures make him competitive.
• 9 All My Tails is dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time. Johnny V stays for low profile but competent trainer Michael Dilger. You simply have to use horses that are first time MC, especially with only three starts. I think this looks more like the trainer is being realistic as opposed to desperate.
• 11 C’S Smart Strike puts blinkers on . His last race was slow at the  beginning but sped up nicely. In a race with a few contenders, he’s one of the horses that figures to have a chance. The outside post doesn’t help, but perhaps the blinkers will encourage him to get a good striking position early.