Selections

Saratoga July 30 – Late Pick 4

Update: Total bonehead in the blog. By the time I got to the 7th race the drumbeats for Ear D’Rhythm were pounding in my ear and I realized I had wrongly overlooked the horse. Worse, it seemed like everyone knew it because she dropped from 6-1 at the opening to 5-2. Big apologies to anyone who read the blog. I hope you figured out the 4 anyway. Otherwise it was a pretty easy pick-4. La Madrina was a clear winner in the 8th.  Stars Above Me exploded through the stretch to take the 9th. Candir won the 10th at almost 9-2 and Uptown Joe completed a $76 exacta so there was some consolation to the day. I made a lot more in the 10th race  than I would have betting a 50 cent pick-4.

The main track looked like it was back to fast, and the forecast is for cooler temperatures with a possibility of a scattered shower. That means if it rains, it will be directly over the track. Three of the last four races are on the turf, and if they decide to run on the lawn it should still be soft or yielding. I’m going to handicap for on the turf. I’ll admit that when races go off the turf I lose my enthusiasm.

It’s Wednesday which means today’s stakes race is a 5 1/2 furlong affair on the turf.

RACE 7

There is not really a stickout in this race, which usually means either the crowd favorite wins or a bomber comes in.

  • 2 Casey Roo is one of the contenders. She has two decent races on the turf and was claimed out of her last by Richard Schosberg. Schosberg is not known as a miracle worker when it comes to claims, but either Jonny V knows something or Casey Roo was the best he could come up with in his battle with Javier Castellano, She broke her maiden for $40K on the turf at 5F and has never been the mile distance, although she has plenty of turf distance breeding. I can’t imagine she’ll be 10-1 at post, but if she is I’d be a little concerned.
  • 3 Benny’s Bullet seemed to be suffering from seconditis until she broke her maiden in a $40K claimer. Then, even though she went back to finishing second, Gary Gullo decided to take a chance by claiming the horse. He’s another one that isn’t known for his first off the claim. He puts blinkers on and puts Irad Ortiz in the saddle, at least a slight upgrade from Rosario Montanez. She’s another one that doesn’t look like she’ll go off as high as her ML odds of 5-1. She’ll be the top choice, but barely.
  • 7 Sundae School has a 17-1-4-5 record. She broke her maiden in a mile dirt event for $25K then went right back to finishing behind horses. She’s certainly fast enough and has plenty of experience at the distance, but I just have an impediment when it comes to horses that seem more inclined to finish in the money. She fits and could inherit the win, but I when it comes time to push the send button, I’m not sure she’ll be on the ticket.
  • 8 Wine Burglar broke her maiden in her 8th start, and ran respectably in a $50K starter allowance. I think she looks like a horse that matured from 3 to 4 and could improve. She showed a nice pressing style in her last. A close second choice.

RACE 8

  • 2 Ocean Boulevard was in two stakes races in her last two of 2013 after breaking her maiden at Saratoga. She’s not the fastest horse in the race, she’s been off nearly 9 months, and she has pretty ordinary workouts for her return. I think that you have to include her because the return is in a NW1X.
  • 4 Tiz May West won first time out last June and came back a year later and ran a competitive race at CD. She has every reason to improve. I’ll make her top pick.
  • 5 Eddy Gourmet ran a monster race on the dirt at Delaware last out after spending most of her career on the turf. Hugh McMahon is one of those competent mid-Atlantic trainers who comes to Saratoga with a few promising horses. I don’t think you can dismiss the horse out of hand.
  • 6 La Madrina has run two nice races at 7F. As long as she doesn’t lose contact with the pack she has a legitimate chance.
  • 7 Dear Mama ran a very nice 6 1/2 F race at BEL first out in America. She’s a temptress in this field.
  • 11 Love You Loads finally broke her maiden for Todd Pletcher at MTH. She has plenty of speed and Joe Bravo comes in to ride her.

RACE 9

  • 3 Burn Control has two nice races at Parx. Frankly, I think the snootier NY handicappers dismiss the horses from a cheaper circuit out of hand, but until someone beats her, I think you have to put her in the mix.
  • 7 Stars Above Me is a speedster from England that gets Graham Motion, Irad Ortiz and Lasix. She’d certainly be value at 5-1.
  • 9 Isabelle looks like one of the horses that is hoping for the race to move to the dirt. If it doesn’t I still think she is fast enough to lead this field to the wire.

RACE 10

Although this race is carded at a mile on the turf, only 7, 8, and 12 even have a race on the turf.  Sort of looks like a bunch of horses are hoping for a shift to dirt. Pletcher sends out the first-timer 5 Same As and Velasquez gets the ride. The horse is listed at 5-1 on the ML, and she is getting some hype. I really don’t like the workout pattern  and he would be a bet against for me. 2 All the Way is also getting some hype, mainly based on his sibling and dam. I’m not initially interested, but if he gets live on the board I’d take a second look. If the race moves to the dirt, I’d really monitor the action on the MTOs. Neither sticks out. 10 Alexndeed moves way up on the dirt and would be a must use. 9 First Bid, the other Chad Brown trainee is another that moves up on the dirt.  The turf choices are below.

  • 7 Uptown Joe has turf experience and his figures aren’t bad. Other than the AE’s , he at least has decent turf form.
  • 11 Candir is well-bred for the turf and should improve on that surface. He gets a trainer switch to Chad Brown and a modest jockey improvement to Javier Castellano. He’s not a stickout – in fact, I’d say he’s underlayed at 7-2, but he may get excessive action because (1) there isn’t much else to take action and (2)  Brown/Castellano is a 30% combo. That means if you know nothing at all about horseracing and you bet that combo every time, you’d actually be making 1.5 cents on the dollar. On the other hand, they are in the slushy, if not frozen stage, at the Spa with zero wins in 5 starts. Perhaps they are due.
  • Both of the AEs, 13 Jimmy Soul and 14 Jimmy Fillpot are on the must use list if they scratch in.