All posts by richhalvey

At NYRA It’s 1984

“Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this. The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently…We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now you begin to understand me.”
     – George Orwell, 1984
Eric Arthur Blair was an English novelist and essayist who spent his life in critical opposition to social injustice and totalitarianism. He is probably most remembered for his dystopian 1949 novel, 1984, written under the pen name George Orwell. He wrote the book in the elongating shadow of a post-World War II Europe that had seen the meteoric rise and fall of fascism and the burgeoning threat of a communist Soviet Union controlled by Big Brother himself, Josef Stalin.
The frightening theme that weaves throughout the book is censorship, the endless doctoring of photographs and the erasure of “unpersons,” so that no record of their existence remains.
In a move that at least provides a whiff of 1984, NYRA has decided that the video replay for the 8th race on Friday December 5 will be forever deleted from the archives, or as Orwell may have put it,
“He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.”
In a Daily Racing Form article, David Grening described the incident this way:
“Friday’s incident occurred when Quick Money, ridden by Angel Serpa, clipped heels after American Creed, ridden by Manuel Franco, drifted in and Sol the Freud, ridden by C.C. Lopez, came out, closing what was a narrow hole. Quick Money went down, and Laila’s Jazz fell over him. Half Nelson, ridden by Israel Rodriguez, fell over Laila’s Jazz. Quick Money died as a result of the impact, which caused him to break his neck. Half Nelson was vanned off but shortly thereafter was euthanized due to a fractured shoulder. Laila’s Jazz got up and ran loose before being caught by an outrider and was not reported to have suffered a serious injury.”
It was an ugly scene to be sure, but the decision not to show the replay after the race, especially considering there was an inquiry, was – and there is no other way to put this – wrong. And the further decision to expunge the race from the NYRA video library only compounded the mistake. NYRA’s policy is not to show race replays where there is a death involved. They would like you to believe it is in the “best interest of the sport” to bury fatal accidents, but it stretches credibility to believe that argument. If that is, in fact, a reason, it can be no better than a minor part of the decision.
Someone suggested that the NYRA spokesperson was being politic, but offering it was in the best interest of the sport was as lame a non-answer as we could have imagined. Why is it in the best interest? Was it too violent for normal sensibility? Are we honoring the “memory” of the horses who perished, exhibiting some surreal sensitivity to the horses as we might to the families of the human victims of tragedies? NYRA seemed to either be acting imperially (the object of power is power after all) or assuming we were all incapable of objectively watching the video.
I’ll give you the likely reason. Between Joe Drape, PETA, Real Sports and the other groups making a living from sensationalizing race track accidents – and fatalities – the idea of handing them what seems like another bullet for their firearm can be seen as self-destructive. But the other sports that tried to keep their problems closeted learned the hard way that it has the opposite effect on public opinion. If you need an example, go no farther than Roger Goodell and Ray Rice. Put simply, if you act like you have something to hide, everyone concludes you have something to hide. Either that or you think you are beyond the effects of criticism, and even the exalted NFL found out how fast the worshippers can turn.
Horseracing is different than other sports because it is driven by the betting that occurs on each event. If NASCAR decided not to show horrific crashes fans might be disappointed, but it’s not a pari-mutuel sport where fans have the right to review the races they pay to watch. Football fans may look away when a vicious hit results in a stomach-turning injury, but unless the hit is illegal, it winds up being just a part of the game. There is not a sport played where injuries are not inherent, and sometimes repulsively ugly. Every fan understands and accepts that.
Yes, fans have an absolute right to view race replays, both to make their own assessment of the fairness of the outcome and as part of handicapping. There can be no argument about this. If we need to have a discussion it should be about how those of us with a need to make assessments can gain access while keeping those whose sensibilities would be offended from accidentally stumbling upon a video of a horse breaking its neck during a race. But at the end of the day, if someone wants to use the video to “prove” the cruel nature of horseracing we can’t stop it. All we can do is what every other sport does – demonstrate how we are proactively working to make the sport as safe as possible. If that is not what we are doing, then horseracing does not deserve to survive. Anything less than ensuring trainers who improperly care for their horses or put unsound animals on the track, jockeys who ride recklessly, veterinarians that do not provide absolute assurance of a horse’s ability to race safely, and maintenance supervisors who do not absolutely ensure the safety of the racing surface are separated from racing is unacceptable. THAT is how you fight against those who wish to bury racing.
NYRA is not acting in the public interest but their own. Or as Orwell put it,
“If you want to keep a secret, you must also hide it from yourself.”

Aqueduct December 7

Poured yesterday, so the track will be muddy today. The form is still settling and the turf horses that decided to stay for the inner dirt are adjusting. The biggest issue with racing on the inner is that horses can unexpectedly pop up and run big, and it isn’t always obvious on form. Speed did not do well yesterday, although the track seemed fair from the rail to the middle.

Race 1     5-6-4

Home to Carrowkeel has two good learning races on the turf, and is dropping substantially for Michelle Nevin. The works are nothing special, but she is deadly with horses off the layoff. Hot on Ice should be the speed here. Crystal Rocket has been off a year and returned for Contessa on a sloppy track. Race wasn’t much, but surely she needs one or two to get back in the swing.

Race 2     2-3-7

Frosty Bay is another turfer looking to hang out on the inner for a while. She has a win on a wet track, is dropping in price for Schettino, has a win in three tries on the inner. Sidisinforthree has a good lifetime win percentage and jumps up a little for high percentage trainer Michael Pino. Ocean Boulevard just won for Violette, comes back with a decent maintenance work. Has a couple of thirds on the wet track.

Race 3     6-5

Silver Silence drops back to his winning level today. Has a win and a second on the wet track. Andromeda’s Rish should be the favorite but is about the same on paper with the 6.

Race 4      6-3-1

Bert Stone ran greenly last out but with the race under his belt and the trainer change to Gullo he looks to improve all the way today. Bensational was claimed last out by Quartarolo and he jumps him up today. His race in the mud first out was not bad considering he was off a beat slow. Better break puts him in the race. Mark My Style takes the blinkers off after showing a front running preference. Contessa is 13% with that move.

Race 5      5-7-2

Sweets Galore has a good wet track record and is good at the distance. Has the top number going into this one. Hoopskirt is 8 of 9 on the inner and has a high wet track rating. Taylor Jagger was claimed last out by Nick Esler. She is 2 of 4 on the inner and while she hasn’t won on the wet, she’s 4 of 5 in the money.

Race 6     7-1-6

Read the Mirage is 10-1 ML had some big numbers on the inner last year and was taken in a turf race by Thomas Morely. He came back on a good AQU track and ran toward the front early, weakening toward the end. Jose Ortiz stays aboard and if he shows the same interest on the inner as he did last year he looks best. Boss Daddy just missed in the slop in October and came back to finish within a neck of winning at AQU. Perfect American has 10 starts but has a second and third on the wet track and a third in two tries on the inner. Seems more likely to make the exotics than win the race though.

Race 7     2-9-7

Brother Ralphie broke his maiden on the inner and ran a nice third coming off a five month layoff for Linda Rice. She is 25% with second off the layoff. Sun Storm has been showing speed but no ability to stay strong in the stretch, but he drops to his lowest level and that may give him enough of an edge to stay in front. Blue Chips only is dropping way down for this and Englehart is 36% with the turf to dirt move.

Race 8     5-7-8

Lunar Rover has a win and a second on the wet track, including a nice muddy run last out. Led in the Ontario Derby into the stretch and is not facing nearly that competition today. Casiguapo was competitive in the Amsterdam then tailed off slightly. Came back at Parx to run a nice second in a NW1X. 2 of 4 on the wet track. Sassicaia broke his maiden on a sloppy track last out and will be one of those battling up front today. Having Chad Brown on your side counts for something.

Race 9     8-4-6

Socialasul looks far the best for Jacobson who is having a mediocre inner meet by his standards so far. Still, not so much to beat here. Lubango has a win over the inner and is 3 of 4 in the money on the wet track. Irad Ortiz replaces Izzy Rodriguez and that is a major bump up. Star of New York looks good enough to fill out an exotic ticket.

Aqueduct December 6

This will be an abbreviated version since I’ve been working HS BB tournaments this weekend. Besides, the track is a mess and there were a ton of scratches. I’ll monitor the card, but if I play it will be cautiously.

Race 1     1-3-6

Race 2     8-6-2

Race 3     1-5-3

Race 4     1-8-7

Race 5     1-5-3

Race 6     11-8-7

Race 7     2-4-7

Race 8     1-4-6

Race 9     7-11-4

Aqueduct December 5

Race 1     7-6-1

Papa Tom has been turfing all summer but he’s shown a liking for the inner dirt. On the down side he’s 2 for 39, but those two wins came on the inner. Certainly has the numbers to win. Gaining Ground is dropping to his lowest level in search of a win. Of the RuRod entry Solly’s Mischief looks the better of the two.

Race 2     3-6-1

Time for Harlan drops to the bottom for this run after two off the turf races. Her number tops the field. Bella Forever showed good speed on a sloppy track but may have to tangle with East Coast Express on the front end. You Take the Cake has 24 starts but is good enough to catch a minor piece.

Race 3     1-5-2

Dreaming of Cara struggles to find the winner’s circle but has been racing with better. Miss Da Point has four wins in nine starts on the inner dirt and should get first run in the stretch. Lady Gracenote has top numbers but will have to run by everyone in the stretch.

Race 4     6-7-8

Krista’s Persona puts the blinkers on for this try after showing speed and fade. Cuts back in distance and that should help. Saluda looks for a win in her 9th start. Has the numbers but is suspect when it comes to heart. Sky Fortune goes off a short layoff for Jeremiah Englehart.

Race 5     1-5-4

La Bella Valeria has plenty of early speed and has a win and a second at the distance. Go Olivia Go has 4 wins in 11 starts on the inner and will be one of the ones coming in the stretch. Your Move is three of four at the distance and two for two on the inner.

Race 6     5-7-1

Freudex just missed after a nice tracking trip last time and cuts back half a furlong today. Readyheartandsoul is coming off a two month rest. He was competitive when moved from the turf to dirt at SAR  and then came back at BEL where he got caught outside the whole way. Should have a better trip today. Tottie Royer  is much better bred for the dirt than turf should enjoy the cutback in distance.

Race 7     5-4-6

Darling Bridezilla has no wins in 5 starts on the inner, but is making the big drop for Jacobson who is both effective on the drop and second off a layoff. Sweet Sway is 3 of 4 on the inner and looks to be in good condition. Midnightpositano struggles to find the winners circle but has the numbers to grab a piece here.

Race 8     6-4-1-2

Half Nelson has good speed and is 4 of 5 in the money on the inner. Lots of space between races so that is cause for concern, but when he’s right he’s got the ability. N.F.’s Destiny goes for Jacobson who is having mixed success on the inner this week, although this one is 3 wins in 5 starts on the inner. Laila’s Jazz was over his head in the last one, but was competitive before that and has a win on the inner. joe Mooch is another in good condition and goes second off the claim for Linda Rice.

Race 9     6-10-5-7

Swivel got pinched back early in his first start but still ran well. Tiznow has been an effective sire, especially for horses trying dirt routes. Beyond the Green looks primed for a good effort after losing as the favorite last out. Persuasive Devil is five of six in the money and could be a part of the exotics. Arctic King is another that has been competitive and looks much improved for trainer Bruce Brown.

Aqueduct December 4

I understood NYRA is calling off turf racing for the year, so all the races are picked for the inner dirt.

Race 1     5-7-3

Lil’ Zilla has been hanging around at the $40K level for a while and drops today to the inner dirt bottom level maiden price, $25K. Her first six starts were on the turf, then she ran into a sloppy track, then ran a pretty good race in an off the turf affair on the fast AQU dirt. If she takes to the inner she’s the fastest. Peach Lake is looking to find the winner’s circle in start 18. Lot of seconds and thirds lately so she should be competitive even though the win is questionable. Built in a day only has four starts and looks like she’s been waiting for a distance of ground on a fast track.

Race 2     6-5-2

Rosemarie is another one that might appreciate the cutback. Nice figures, but has trouble getting up first. Mononoke is a total money burner, but is good enough in this field to slip into the win slot. Lemon and Honey has 3 seconds and a third in 10 starts this year and may inherit one of the exotic spots.

Race 3     2-3-6

Blue Shark is dropping from MSW to this low claiming level. He’s shown a lot of ability to get interested early, but hasn’t finished so well. He’s definitiely bred more for the dirt and should be fine at the distance. American Hero is another with competitive numbers, but will need a good spot and a good pace to run at. Warrior’s Hero has lots of speed but has been having to spend it on sloppy and muddy tracks and the dirt. Last time on a fast track he almost won.

Race 4     6-12-11

M J Plus just missed at this price three weeks ago and has consistently good figures. Love to Run was claimed last out by Chris Englehart and he is fair first off the claim. May have to duel with Shankopotamous but he’s shown an ability to sit just off. Lot’s of in the money finishes. Global Asset seems to be a little faster on the turf, but ran very well in his last race over a good AQU dirt. Claimed last out by Bruce Levine and he is good with new barn arrivals.

Race 5     2-3-4

Apex has good tactical speed, a win at the distance and a win over the AQU inner. Bemata was left in his last start at Parx, but prior to that he was running well. Dighton is new to the Bruce Levine barn, but has two wins, two seconds on the AQU inner.

Race 6     11-1-13

In a competitive race the MTO Our Caravan is finally dropping out of graded stakes to try his hand with OC $62K runners. He should find this field much easier. One of the Klesaris entry will scratch, and if it is off the turf Frazil is the one likely to start. He’s got nice tactical speed and just lost last out to Golden Itiz after dueling all the way around the track. He’ll be looking to turn the tables on an inner dirt where he is 5 for 16 in the win slot and 11 for 16 in the money. Golden Itiz goes for three in a row. Hasn’t been on the AQU inner, but has been running strong figures. Has a nice tracking style.

Race 7     7-3-1

Herbal Prospecter runs wet or dry, and goes second off the claim for Tony Dutrow who is 28% with that move. Big Town is not well thought of by the linemaker at 12-1, but he figures as fast as any horse in here and is well suited to the distance. Pleidian has front running ability, although he’s like to battle for the lead. Still, he’s 5 of 9 at the distance.

Race 8     5-6-1

Spa City Fever has a decided figure advantage, although lately Jacobson hasn’t been finding the winner’s circle at his normal rate. Still, gotta go with the number here. Saratoga Snacks was good enough to race in the Cigar Mile last year and although he hasn’t hit the winner’s circle this year, he’s been running well all year. Bond Vigilante has only had one race this year and Chad Brown is 22% second off the layoff. He’s got plenty of tactical speed and was racing with better last year.

Race 9     6-2-3-4

6 Twist ‘n Bake has the fastest figures, although they are on the turf. Turf horses did well today, so we’ll see if that continues. Ozone puts the blinkers on after showing plenty of speed her first two outs. Not sure why and Contessa is only 5% with the move, so we’ll see what difference it makes. Kisses for Romeo was right behind Ozone last out and can improve for a warming Dominic Shettino. Perfect Freud was third last out after running wide out of the 10 post. Sydney Dutrow put in a claim and wheels her back a tick higher.

Aqueduct December 3

We’re finally on the inner dirt but NYRA hasn’t given up on the turf yet. Let me ask a question. If the turf can’t be better than soft after 5 days of no rain, what hope do we ever have for getting a firm turf?

Race 1      7-1-6 

Senso goes for Jacobson. She’s been at the $40K level for a while, which is not a good thing, but she had a couple of good races in off the turf affairs her last two. She’ll be a suspect favorite but has raced best on the dirt. Confessa had some trouble at the start last race. Will be bet off one good dirt race at SAR at this level that she might have won with a better trip. Maura’s Pass ran fair on a sloppy track last out and gets a trainer change to Jason Servis.

Race 2      5-3-7

Razia Sultana has been consistent in he first three starts. Didn’t care for the mud at BEL but has been working hard in the mornings lately,. Violette and Ortiz have been a strong combo lately. Good Shot has been second in his first three starts and she seems to be getting better with each start. Stolen Victory has been off the turf her last two starts. Finished close behind Good Shot two back. Room for improvement.

Race 3      1-4-2

America spent most of the year tackling the likes of Untapable and Stopchargingmaria and soundly beat an allowance field in the mud at AQU last out. Stands out in this field. Evening Show has been struggling to find the winner’s circle this year but has been running competitively. Lunar Surge has been having a good 2014 with 7 of 8 in the money. She’s another that has a lot of thirds compared to wins, but could make the exotics.

Race 4      4-14-10-2

Mambo at the Gym improved substantially when dropped to this level. Hasn’t been on the dirt yet but has good tactical speed. Harbor King is the MTO in the race. Richard Metivier has so far refused to give up on him and has put him in state bred MSW. Perhaps with the drop to MCL he improves. Puts blinkers on. Identity Crisis has been mainly on the dirt and is much better bred for the dirt than the turf. Bold Runner has a lot of speed and will be the one to catch.

Race 5      5-6-2

Prove It All Night has a good turn of speed that she’s been using to her advantage. Jumps up off the claim. Lopez is usually effective with frontrunners. Kelly’s Prize drops in from the state bred ranks. Last time she was at this level she ran creditably. Mr Rico Is Valid didn’t seem to care for the turf last time but two back he was competitive on the BEL mud. Gullo claim hasn’t win’t yet for him but he is 24% with the turf to dirt move.

Race 6      7-8-5-3

Two year old maiden race has a number of promising first time starters and a few second time starters. Call me Stoney switches to Bruce LEvine for his second start after showing speed and fading last out. That race certainly gave him necessary experience and the intervening works should have him with a  good edge. All Is Number goes first time for Violette and has a nice series of works for this one. Violette has been hot wtih firsters lately. Apollo Eleven goes first time for RuRod and Castellano. Good works for this debut. Francis Freud had trouble at the break first time out in June. Cannizzo laid him off until this spot. Should come back fitter and stronger.

Race 7      4-7-1-6

American Progress puts the blinkers on for Leo O’Brien and takes a price tumble from NW1X. Has a win on the inner dirt and that moves him up today. Bajan Summer improved when moved to the dirt and dropped to this level. Switches to Angel Cruz for this trip. Three For Me is making his 13th start but he has shown a tendency to finish in the money. Another with a win and a second on the inner.

Race 8      8-3-7

The horses that ran on Sunday all scratched out of this race leaving four runners. Clean Eleven looks like the speed here and is decently bred for the route. Castellano stays and that is a good thing. Legally Bay is 1 for 25 and has been knocking around this level for a while. She’s got some fast figures and with only three competitors she has a better chance than she’s had in a while. Swift Taylor is coming from FL with three wins in her pocket including one on the inner at AQU.

Race 9      10-8-5

Mr. Lit comes in from FL for new conditioner Michelle Nevin after being off for a year and a half. The first race was certainly necessary and he has a win, second, and third in four races on the inner. Straight Bite showed some speed last out at a mile in the slop at AQU but faded badly. Switches to the Bruce Levine barn. Much better bred for the dirt and a wet track. Byron’s Pop is the Jacobson trainee coming in. He showed some speed in his last before fading. Expecting better today.

Betting Two Horses

Slow week last week with Thanksgiving and all. Horseracing took a back seat to family and the holiday, as it should.

After a prompt from Jason Beem, I thought about doing this week’s blog on the uncomfortable chemistry between Peyton Manning and Papa John on those pizza commercials, but I really didn’t have much more than what I just said. Although it did strike me that unless you are an accomplished jazz musician or a voodoo high priest you have no business referrring to yourself as “Papa.”

Here’s a note to advertising agencies. You are not obligated to use Phil Phillip’s song, Home, in every commercial. I’m not sure when I hear the song in the background if it is for insurance, car sales or something else. It also reminds me of a David Spade joke about Lynyrd Skynyrd. They only did two songs. Free Bird and Not Free Bird. Sorry Phil. Nobody but your most ardent fans can name your other songs. And that’s as much as I needed to say about that.

California Chrome won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, causing the folks at Del Mar to spew forth superlatives, including that he was the only horse to win four Grade 1’s this year, which is totally true if you ignore Main Sequence.  No real story here. He beat Lexie Lou, a filly with Canadian credentials and Talco , a three year old with a career as an allowance horse staring him in the face. Needless to say, based on the level of competition, Chrome didn’t cement his case for horse of the year.

I was going to talk about addicted gamblers, mostly based on one guy on Twitter who seems to bet a ton of races, gets ridiculously angry (almost ever time at the jockey) when he loses, and can’t wait to shout when he hits one. Pretty much every race. I wrote in detail about this in my article, Risk Intelligence, which you can find in the July archives, so I’m not going to go into detail again. But this is one of the warning signs of gambling addiction, getting really furious if you lose and over the top if you win.  I’ll just say, if this sounds like you, you might see if you have some of the other warning signs for addicted gambler.

Aqueduct ended it’s main dirt meet with a whimper when they took all the races off the turf on Cigar Mile Saturday and the inside part of the course was like playing like horses were running on a concrete moving walkway. Not much of a story there either.

However, on Cigar Mile Saturday if you had played my top two selections to win, you would have hit 5 of 10 races and your ROI would have been 63%. That means if you were betting $10 to win  on the top two horses in each race, you would have bet $200, collected $326.

The idea of playing multiple horses to win has been mentioned in a lot of books, including my book, The Condition Sign, and was developed as a strategy by Howard Sartin, a psychologist who treated addicted gamblers with the devilishly simple idea that the cure to chronic losing was winning.

Let me start with my maxim: In most cases it is more profitable to bet two horses to win than to bet one horse win and place. Whenever you hear people pumped up about their “ladder” bet, either they don’t understand the arithmetic of win and place betting, they need the psychological salve from a place bet, or they lose all the win photos their horses are involved in. Let’s look at the arithmetic.

We’ll start with the assumption that your top two choices both average 4-1 and that one of your top two selections wins 50% of the time, and your top choice wins 25% of the time and finishes second 15% of the time when it doesn’t win. The place price will be assumed as $5. There are three possibilities.

  • one of the two horses wins
  • your top choice does not win but finishes second
  • both finish out of the top two spots

For the sake of calculation, let’s say you either bet $10 to win on your top two choices or $10 win and place on your top choice.

In the case of betting two horses to win, in 100 races the total bet would be $2,000, the total collected would be $2,500. In the case of betting one horse to win and place, total bet would be $2,000, total collected wouild be $2,250. Of course, if you took the same $20 and put it on your top pick to win, you’d collect….$2,500. In other words, betting to win only is superior (using these assumptions) to ever betting win and place. I’d challenge you to do your own experiment picking two horses in a race and figuring out whether it would be more profitable to bet them both to win or pick one and divide the same amount win and place. Eventually you can get sophisticated enough to make win bets unequal based on your calculated win line, but that’s a different lesson.

Most people who bet place just can’t deal psychologically with the lower collection percentage, and I fully understand that. But you have to keep telling yourself, I’m better off in the long run not to bet place (most of the time).

Now I’ve read pieces that talk about betting against yourself if you bet two horses to win. For the most part, they are wrong, but I’ll concede it depends as much on your successful selection rate as anything.

The one time I think you are justified in making a place bet is when your horse is at big odds, and again it is for psychological reasons. Not long ago I had a horse just get nipped at 37-1 and I believe it would have been devastating to not make some collection. Besides, the place mutuel was better than the vast majority of win mutuels.

I realize this is a bit of a grinding way to win, and for that reason I would concede that it is fine to budget half your bankroll for win bets and half for exotics. That is maxim number two: half of the money you bet should be to win.  If you play well, there is plenty of opportunity for profit.

 

Aqueduct November 30

Due to some technical difficulties with my web page provider, it’s an abbreviated analysis today. I can assure you I put as much effort into these picks as I always do.

No idea if the track will play to the inside front like it did yesterday. I would guess that the maintenance guys might have been slightly embarrassed by the merry-go-round nature of a lot of the races and did some dirt moving today. But, pay attention, and if it is still there, look for the inside speed on the dirt. My selections are for a fair track.

Race 1     2-7-4-1

Violette has two in here, and the better rider goes to Vagarious. Still, McQuaid still has some up side. Only two races, both times he was all but eliminated at the start, and he had to deal with the mud last out. He rushed a little in that race and flattened. In his first start he actually showed some close. Certainly there are horses with better figures, but they all have more than 5 starts. He’ll be the long price and worth a look. Keen’s Cupla and Hidden Warrior are the speed and the figure horses and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them duel to the wire.

Race 2     10-11-13-8

Off the turf and it’s bombs away time with Kimmies Lucky Star. She fits the conditions, although that 1 for 16 gets leaves me unsettled. Royal Jest is developing seconditis, but has good enough figures to compete. Piccolo Flats just broke her maiden and will be tested against winners, but that was a convincing score.

Race 3      3-5-2

North Ocean is the speed and has the best number. Small worry with Petrocelli causing him to blow his brains out early, but he doesn’t look like an anxious speed type. State Flag has 7 dirt races and has won 3 of them. He’s mainly a plodder, and that may work against him today. Socialsaul goes for five in a row, but I think the fact that he hasn’t been claimed is a negative, maybe indicative of his soundness. Still, if he holds together he’s got outs.

Race 4     5-1-3-7

I’ll be the first to admit this one is a puzzle. I went to the 5 because Violette snagged one yesterday just like this with Ortiz up. But the 1, 2, 3, 7, and even the second time starter, 9, have cases that can be made.

Race 5     3-7-8

B Shanny is the speed and can finish and I like the claimed by Nevin last out. Broad Rule takes a dive in price, but is getting older and might need the discount. Coalition comes from FL and is better than 33% first and second. No problem at this class either.

Race 6     11-9-4-8

Two year old state bred fillies. Zenstone has been off two months but has been working. Showed speed in her debut. Gullo is good with 2nd starters and 2 year olds. Accelebrate didn’t like the turf last out and if she runs back to her first two she competitive at a price. Yourcreditisgood puts the blinkers on and drops from MSW. Desperate time of the year for trainers of two year olds – time to clean the stables from horses that aren’t going to be top three year olds, hence the price drops.

Race 7     1-5-15-10

Another off the turf and we’ll look mainly at the MTO’s. Call Wil was going favorite on the grass, and although he’s not the same horse on the dirt, you have to respect his ability. Horatio jumps up off the claim and might be ambitiously placed but has the numbers to compete here at a price. Recanted is 10-1 ML and has been running on the dirt for a while. Might have won because of the slop, but has chances here. Cosmic Coincidence is the inside speed and may control the race.

Race 8     5-1-2

Bernie the Maestro will have to contend with Bowman’s Beast but I think the Maestro is the classier speed. Jacobson leaves Depeche Chat in the race and although he’s been turfing most of the year he has some dirt form in his past that would make him competitive here. When Jacobson leaves the weaker looking of the entry in, look out. Vegas No Show gets the steep holiday discount and that may be enough to make him part of the finish.

Race 9     5-6-8-9

They left this one on the turf. Go figure. You can see from the ML nobody sticks out so let’s go with Bartiromo. She’s better on the turf, fits the class level, and I’m predicting she stays close to the front here. Chow Fun will be one of the ones closing and has the numbers to be in the mix. Life’s a Stage is taking a drop off a last race best. Ambiguous but how do you leave her out. Ear D’Rhythm is in the mix in this field.

Aqueduct November 29

Race 1

On the Turf: 9-2-5

On the Main: 3-1-8-5

Race 2

  • 5 Live Love Laugh – Broke her maiden at first asking, came back in an OC $50K and then laid off until November. She ran a pretty good race and has come back with an unremarkable 4 furlong breeze. Switches to Saez today and that is a bit of a downgrade, but if the speedier runners overdo it, she should be in a good striking position turning for home.
  • 1 Wavell Avenue – wired a field in a $40K MCL and jumps up to $50K starter. That might be asking a bit, but she started out in straight maidens and has Chad Brown conditioning. She has four November workouts and that should keep her on edge. She’s not going to be good value if she goes off near her ML odds of 8-5, and there will be a lot of speed to contend with, but she has a lot in her favor.
  • 6 Vision of Mine – broke her maiden three back and came close to wiring a field at this class level in her last. She gets a major upgrade to Irad and will definitely be part of the early pace battle.

Race 3

On the Turf: 5-11-9-4

On the Main: 13-12-1a-4

Race 4     Comely – Grade 3     6-3-1

  • 2 Shayjolie -was not factor in the Raven Run, although she had an awkward start. She came back in one of the top fall sprints at Laurel, the Safely Kept, and made a furious close to take second. She’s going to have to negotiate a mile and an eighth today, and although she broke her maiden at a mile there are horses more likely today.
  • 1 Penwith – one of the three Godolphin runners entered. This one has natural speed, one win at the distance, and a third at AQU on this day last year when she ran within a neck of Stopchargingmaria in the Demoiselle. She had some trouble when she couldn’t grab the lead, but seems to have come back to form. She’ll probably need to fight up front to have a chance.
  • 1a Snowbell – Another with plenty of early speed and seemingly better suited for the sprint distances. Still, as a Tapit she should relish the distance today and can’t be discounted. Doesn’t have any graded races in her background, and that has to make her a bit suspect. Still, she scratched out of the Go For Wand to take a spot here and that has to be seen as a positive.
  • 3 Dame Dorothy – Pletcher trainee came off a two month rest to win the Turnback the Alarm in a decent time. She has a good tracking style and given the speed inside of her should find a good tracking position.
  • 4 House Rules – this filly has been busy with eight races already this year. She’s had no luck at all at the Grade 1 level, but was running well in Grade 2 stakes at GP earlier this year. She’s coming off a solid win against much lesser on a sloppy AQU track so being a factor is not totally out of the question.
  • 5 Princess Violet – ran on Friday so should be a scratch.
  • 6 Catch My Drift – was right behind Dame Dorothy last out and was closing the gap most of the way down the stretch. Actually didn’t run that badly in the Alabama and has 3 wins in 5 tries. She’s a strong contender here.
  • 1x Divided Attention – while she hasn’t made any attempts at this distance, she’s beautifully bred for the 1 1/8. She was in the top flight of 2 year old fillies last year, came out at SAR after a long layoff and won a 7 furlong allowance. She folded like an accordion in the Raven Run, but I think she’ll be much better suited for this distance and if Irad metes out her energy, she has a good chance to be the best of the entry.
  • 7 Flipcup – She doesn’t have the figures of some of these and has been almost exclusively in state bred stakes, but she will be one of the closers and did finish second to Princess Violet, who lost the Go For Wand Friday by a slim nose. Might catch a minor piece.

Race 5

  • 4 March – Blame progeny are starting well at 20% first out. Chad Brown is giving him the usual set of useful breezes and his main guy Javier is riding. $320K purchase has been brought along slowly but looks ready for this one.
  • 3 Cat Fiftyfive – the best of the horses with a start, although that start was last July. Has been working very well at Fair Hill and looks primed for a return to the races.
  • 7 Good Pick Nick – Kieran McLaughlin is good with both first timers and two year olds. Excellent workout pattern and the trainer/jockey combo is 30%.  Given the $625 purchase price, great things are expected from this runner.
  • 8 On Tap – Linda Rice has been doing well this meet with 2 year olds and this one has a good recent workout pattern after breaking training in July. Might need this race but has a shot for a minor piece.

Race 6

On the Turf: 12-2-11-7

On the Dirt: 1a-4-15-9

Race 7

  • 1 Pulling G’s – wired a field in a good time but was just as effective on the fast dirt. A couple of good maintenance works and the switch to Rosario shouldn’t be an issue. There is some other speed signed on here but thoses wins put him at the top of the group.
  • 5 Celebrated Talent – another speedball with equally good figures. Got really good in the slop, but might have trouble holding on if he has to duel with the 1 and 7.  Will give the 1 all he can handle up front, and is probably better with the half furlong cutback. Shouldn’t have any problem with the fast track.
  • 3 Joking – just won at 7 furlongs, making it two in a row. He’ll be behind the front runners and should have first run. Not without a chance.
  • 7 Waco – the third part of the speed triumvirate. He really looks about the same at the 5 but will have to go around the other speed. Perhaps a little more up against it.

Race 8     The Demoiselle – Grade 2     6-4-3-7

  • 1 My Cara Mia – three turf starts but other than the maiden sprint win has not made a big impression.
  • 2 Calamity Kate – Seemed to jump up out of nowhere to win her maiden at a mile. Went to the Alcibiades and finished well back. Would have to jump up again today.
  • 3 Quezon – two very impressive wins, one in a state bred stakes. Actually adds Lasix today. She’s 5-1 on the ML but has a big shot today.
  • 4 Save Rock and Roll – Broke her maiden in the slop at MTH, came back in the Sorority and made a mile move in the stretch. She shipped over to BEL for the Matron and finished in the middle of the field. A month later she did the same thing in the Tempted at AQU. In all three of those stakes she had some trouble, either at the break or with a wide trip. She’s actually better than her 20-1 ML odds, and with a clean break and a good stalking spot she has upset possibilities.
  • 5 Gap Year – finished third in the mud at SAR but McLaughlin thought enough of her to run her in the Alcibiades. She was very wide, closed a little and then hung toward the end. She came back to nose out Eskenformoney in a maiden at KEE. Gets a rider upgrade to Irad, but still would have to improve a lot to beat the best in here.
  • 6 Condo Commando – runaway winner of the Spinaway in the slop at SAR after absolutely demolishing her maiden field. Was favored in the Frizette but didn’t handle the BEL slop at all. She’ll have a fast track today and if she runs back to her summer races she’ll be tough to keep out of the winner’s circle.
  • 7 Angela Renee – Was well beaten by the 6 in the Spinaway, went out to SA and won the Grade i prep for the Juvenile Filies, the Chandler, and then totally flopped as the favorite in the BC. She’s got the talent and despite the 2-1 odds, she’s got plenty of competition here.
  • 7 Jacaranda – winner of the Grade 3 Tempted at AQU in early November. Plenty of speed, but I don’t think she’s likely to upset this group.

Race 9      The Remsen – Grade 2     12-10-11-2

  • 1 Flashaway – scratched
  • 3 Combat Diver – Came out on the turf and never got into the race, then came back on the dirt at BEL to win a MSW in fair time. He may turn out to be a good one but I’m not sure he’s ready for this group.
  • 1a Moonlight Bandit – broke his maiden in his second start for Mark Casse. He’s well bred and Casse is known as a good trainer of two year olds, but I don’t think he’s shown enough yet to get a nod.
  • 4 Bodhisattva – he looks completely overmatched here,
  • 5 Thirtysevenliveson – Still a maiden and unless Romans has been playing possum, he looks over his head.
  • 6 Royal Burgh – Delicately handled by Pletcher. His maiden win was not particularly fast, but he has a series of good workouts and is well bred for this distance. A minor contender.
  • 7 Eh Cumpari – came from the clouds at 4-1 to take an off the turf event at AQU. It was not a high class maiden field and I don’t favor that sort of running style. I’ll pass.
  • 2 Leave the Light On – Chad Brown trainee has not yet seen a dry track but ran a nice wire to wire victory in his maiden in a good time. Given this will be his first try on the dry surface he could be any kind and can’t be simply eliminated.
  • 8 Keen Ice – Won his maiden at CD but was destroyed in the in the Breeders Futurity at KEE. He has some talent but I think he’d be a surprise today.
  • 9 The Truth or Else – the McPeek runner is not the same sort of 20-1 runner as a few in here. He won his maiden at BEL in his fourth career start. He then came back in the Champagne and ran third, but 15 lengths behind Daredevil, then another distant third in the Nashua. Both of those races were on wet tracks. He hasn’t shown any speed in his races, so will have to be coming in the stretch. I think it is not inconceivable for him to catch a minor piece.
  • 10 Classy Class – Smashing maiden win and he comes back with an impressive series of workouts. Well bred for the distance and a useful pressing style. One of the main contenders.
  • 11 Ostrolenka – Blew away his maiden field for Pletcher, then came back in the state bred Sleepy Hollow and beat a decent field, including Market Conduct. He’s been improving with each start and other than the outside post, has a lot of up side.
  • 2b Market Conduct – two state bred stakes, including a third to Ostrolenka in the Sleepy Hollow. Irad took off this one to ride the 12, but Rosario is not a bad sub. Probably the weaker half of the entry.
  • 12 Frosted – Took three starts to break his maiden, but in fairness he was likely to improve with distance. Adds Lasix today and has a fabulous couple of works in preparation for this. He’ll have to figure out a trip from the far outside, but otherwise all systems look go.

Race 10     The Cigar Mile – Grade 1     1-2-4-6

  • 1 Private Zone – Won the Vosburgh on the front end, and did very well in the BC Sprint despite having to run wide. Was second in this race last year after the same prep in the BC. That’s his only race at AQU and his best finish at the distance. He’s certainly talented, and given he’s only raced three times this year, should have plenty left in the tank.
  • 2 It’smyluckyday – has really had a great year, winning the Grade 1 Woodward and finishing second to Moreno in the Whitney. He lost as the odds on favorite to Vyjack but has been given two months to rest, and even went to Florida for the short vacation. Despite seeming to have a preference for the two turn races, he’s 2 of 4 at the mile distance, and certainly competes well in this group.
  • 3 Noble Moon – despite racing well as a two year old and early into his three year old season, he wasn’t able to beat the top three year olds in either the King’s Bishop of the PA Derby. He apparently detested the slop at AQU. On the one hand losing to BC Classic winner Bayern and top sprinter The Big Beast is nothing to downgrade the horse over, but he seems maybe a step behind the best in this field.
  • 4 Vyjack – had struggled all year in Graded races and then jumped up to win the Kelso. He is 3 of 4 at AQU and one of two at the mile. He should be coming in the stretch and is not without a chance.
  • 5 Transparent – Only two starts this year, the last one a win in an OC $62K. That was not a great field, and despite the 6-1 ML he’s one of the runners I’m not that interested in.
  • 6 Secret Circle – Another with only three starts this year, including an impressive second in the BC Sprint, the same race he won last year. He doesn’t have any AQU starts and we can’t be sure he’ll take to the track, but he’s got some massive figures and has run well in both of his mile races. He never runs a bad race, and no reason to expect him not to be part of the finish.
  • 7 Big Business – Did have a second in the Grade 1 Forego, but doesn’t look like he will be in the mix at the end.
  • 8 Regally Ready – hard knocking seven year old has won 6 of 9 races this year, but nothing against this level of competition. He’d be a surprise to me.
  • 9 Bourbon Courage – Made an insane run in the BC sprint to go from dead last at the stretch call to only lose by two lengths. While that was an incredible run, he hasn’t done better than a win at an OC $80K this year and is only 4 of 20 lifetime. It’s an ambitious placing and I don’t think I’m going to bite on his chances.

Aqueduct November 28

Well we made it through Thanksgiving, albeit not without consuming more calories than I’ll need for a week. I totally understand the idea of needing an excuse for getting a Thursday in November off, but that certainly doesn’t mean you should gobble (see what I did there) enough food that famine in Africa could be eradicated. If I miss a race or two today, I’m blaming it on an L-tryptophan hangover.

Race 1

  • 11 Roman Reign – started her career on the turf with little success, and had raced her last three on wet tracks with decent success. She’s got competitive figures, a new trainer and blinkers on. I like to see horses with positive changes that have space to improve.
  • 4 Shades of Indygo – not the play of the day by any stretch. Best figures of any horse left in the race, but with 12 starts already is taking on the look of a professional maiden. She’s really got the best chance she’s had in a while today. One third at AQU, a second and two thirds on a wet surface.
  • 8 Letters of Fire – Jumps up from MCL $25K but showed a lot of speed on a muddy track at HAW last out and may be something of a mudlark. The change to Chris Englehart could help, and she is facing state breds for the first time.
  • 5 Lutheran Miss – 6 starts, four seconds and a third. You can’t leave a horse with a record that interesting out, especially since her last was an off the turf affair where she finished a couple of lengths ahead of the 11.

Race 2

  • 1 Flat Leaver – This is not a high quality field, and Flat Leaver is 2-1 on the ML, but horses dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks are generally solid plays. Hushion is 26% second off a long layoff and 2 of 8 dropping from MSW to MCL. His figures are as good as anyone’s and although he’s going to catch a wet surface, he’s well bred for the moist track and he may have enough speed to catch a decent tracking spot. The down side – a rail that has not been the place to be lately. My tepid choice.
  • 6 Massolino – he’s not well bred for the turf, although his first effort on the lawn was pretty good. He’s another dropping from MSW and has an encouraging trio of works since his last race. He switches from Saez to Izzy Rodriguez, not the most positive switch, but he is on the outside and should be closing.
  • 2 Blue Collar Cat – the speed of the race. He was looking promising in 2013, but took a year vacation, coming back at BEL in SEP. In that race he ran to the front, backing up a few lengths in the stretch. He came back at AQU at a mile and pretty much ran the same race. He’s obviously not better than a $40 claimer as a 3 year old, but if he grabs hold he could wire this field.
  • 5 Hampden Fiveone – 15 starts, 8 seconds/thirds. Hasn’t cracked through the $40K barrier and not so likely today, but in the money possibilities.

Race 3

  • 12 Lotsa Noodles – wet track specialist has 5 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. RuRod has been having a good AQU meet and she tops the group from a figure standpoint.
  • 11 Ginny’s Grey – another that seems to improve with the wet track. Last seen beating a field of $25 starter allowance runners in the mud at BEL. Danny Gargan has a limited number of starters but is fair off the short layoff.
  • 4 Get Gorgeous – Another that excels on a wet track. Pretty consistent figures this year and adds blinkers. Not without chances in this field. 
  • 9 Agawa – finished a distant second in a race washed off the turf last out, but that is enough to expect her to be competitive. She’s had a bit of trouble with hanging in the stretch, but she gets another chance in a field not that strong today.

Race 4

  • 6 Wild Freud – Ran a bang up race first out. After bobbling at the start, he rushed up to be second, but expectedly ran short of fuel in the stretch. He’s moving from a state bred $40K to an open MCL $30K. Chatterpaul is not having a notable meet, and he’s 0 for 9 second lifetime start. He’s a bit chancy, but at 12-1 ML he might be worth a second look.
  • 8 Richie’s Rich – Dropping from much higher MCL ranks to this spot. He’s got the best figure in the field and has a couple of nice works since his last. Is coming from the right spot and should be pressing from the right part of the track.
  • 2 Ghost Swagger – two decent races on muddy tracks and an monster wet track rating. She was claimed out of her first by Abby Adsit whose is having a pretty good AQU meet. Not quite the figure of the 8, but definitely good enough to be a big factor.
  • 3 Radamel – The speed of the race. Another dropping from higher level MCL. Hasn’t shown there is an ability to stick in the stretch but might stay in the race longer with the class drop.

Race 5

  • 7 Stalagmite – Far and away the speed here. Was claimed by Thomas Morley from Chris Englehart at today’s price, jumped him up to $25K, and drops him back today. He’s had a lot trouble carrying that speed all the way, but he may be lone front today and if he relaxes up front he’s got decent outs.
  • 9 Mach Seven – I like that he broke his maiden after 13 tries and then came right back against winners and only finished a head behind the winner. While Joe Parker is a low percentage trainer at AQU, a horse that sparks to life like that deserves a chance.
  • 5 Patty and Nooche – he’s been sniffing around all year with only a maiden win on the AQU inner dirt. He’s been steadily dropping since that race and has settled at the bottom. His figures are about the same as the other contenders, and perhaps the cutback in distance gets him over the top.
  • 2 Ice Wagon – the 9-2 ML second choice right behind the 1 for 28 Harley. He’s similar in the sense that he has half his races in the second or third spot. Still, only has half the starts of Harley, drops to his lowest lifetime level, and is another with figures good enough to win.

Race 6

  • 5 Cherokee Artist – Had been racing against much better, winning a minor stakes at MTH earlier this year. He finished second in a fast time last out and cuts his claiming price in half, a typical Jacobson move. He’s another of those horses from around the east coast that Jacobson has bought outright, and I have the feeling he didn’t pay so much more than today’s claiming price that he won’t do well with a purse and the claiming price if someone grabs him.
  • 2 Patriot’s Voyage – This one was taken from Jacobson last out by the underwhelming Peter Chin. I’m banking on the idea that if Jacobson was still training his horse would be 3-1 instead of 10-1 ML. He ran decently in the Thomas Memorial at Sunland, one of their better quality races, and is another one of those horses that somehow found its way to Jacobson’s barn from another track. It’s only been six days since his last race, so if he still has Jacobson’s influence he’s got a shot.
  • 6 Street Shark – He’s another that has kept company with some better horses in the recent past. Cuts back from his last race, and he seems better suited at 6 1/2. He’s got 5 wins in 11 starts this year, so he is a hard trying horse. No surprise if he is the winner.
  • 4Bobby V. – was claimed for only $10K last out and is jumped up today. He’s been knocking around at lower levels for the last couple of months and may be in over his head, but he’s in good enough condition to make an impact.

Race 7

  • 7 Sister Margaret – three starts, two wins and a  place, with her only loss to Princess Violet who is running today in the Go For Wand. She’s stepping nicely through her conditions and certainly has the figures to match strides with this field. In fact, given the ambiguity of the other runners, she’s one of the more solid plays.
  • 4 Broadway Music Gal – Englehart trainee had been kicking around in the claiming ranks with pretty good success and then took five months off. The return works have been fair, but Englehart is a 26% trainer off the layoff. She’s 1 for 1 over a wet surface so that shouldn’t be an issue. The down side – it’s unlikely she took time off just to take a break and her pp’s suggest she may be more of a horse that likes to race into condition. But if she comes running, she’s competitive with this group.
  • 5 Elmra – Another one with both sides. She pulled up out of a turf race at SAR in July and that has to be a little concerning, but Hennig is 21% with horses off the layoff, and she has a series of fast four furlong works for this return. Hennig adds blinkers today, and given the horse’s good tactical speed, this may lead to improvement. She was well enough thought of to go in a state bred stake in May, and only dropped to OC $40K on the turf. My guess is that it was probably a quarter crack and Hennig thought maybe she would be alright on the turf. She wasn’t and he gave her time to recover. Not a surprise if she runs well or up the track.
  • 3 Spinit to Winit – has been stuck in NW2X since March, but does have a lot of second place finishes. Competitive figure, but seems destined for one of the lesser awards.

Race 8

  • 13 Guyana – hasn’t been on a muddy track in a while, but is excellently bred for wet surfaces. Last two races were strong. Down side is that she has twice as many seconds as wins.
  • 11 Go Olivia Go – Jacobson reclaimed her last time and actually jumps this one up in class, probably in an attempt to avoid losing her again. Effective on the wet track and has a win at the distance.
  • 7 Malibu Queen – had been turfing, but dominated a field in the slop at AQU last time. The time before that when she was off the turf on a muddy BEL track she finished second. Lots of outs here.
  • 12 Off My Cloud – two race win streak on the line. Has raced with better in the past. Down side with her is that she hasn’t run route races lately, but she does have a win, place and show at the distance lifetime. We’ll see if she runs out of gas today.

Race 9     The Go For Wand – Grade 3     6-5-4-2

  • 1 Tapit’s World – has been running lately in G3 races and almost won the Gardenia at Ellis Park. Still, she seems a step behind some of the best in here.
  • 2 Endless Chatter – at 6-1 ML she’s got a little attractiveness. She can be forgiven for failing in the Beldame, although she was up near the front most of the race and did beat four of the runners. She never was into the Turnback the Alarm, which is perhaps a little concerning. Before those two races she had reeled off three straight wins. Chad Brown is not a high percentage trainer in dirt route stakes, but she has a small chance to win it.
  • 3 Street Girl – A lot of people remember the second in the Humana Distaff on Kentucky Derby day, and she just ran second in the Chilukki. What did those races have in common? Churchill Downs. She came to this race last year off three straight Grade 1 races, including a 5th in the BC Distaff and flopped. She’s not the same horse as we saw earlier in her three year old season, and given she’s 2 for 21 lifetime, I’m not feeling bad about not putting her in the top group.
  • 4 Sweet Whiskey – The other Pletcher runner gets the “A” rider, Johnny V. She’s run nothing but states in 7 races this year, six of them graded. I have her in the contender list based on consistent figures this year. Her works for this race have been good, although I’d have liked to have seen one on the AQU track.
  • 5 Willet – I can’t leave this horse out. She’s been a hard trying mare, especially on a wet surface where she is 3 of 4 with a second. She’s been behind some top notch filly sprinters – Artemis Argotera and La Verdad and seems to like the AQU surface. She ran fourth in this race last rear, and may improve today.
  • 6 Princess Violet – Took on Untapable in the Mother Goose, finishing a surprising second. She bobbled in the Prioress, losing all shot, but has come back with two in a row including the Empire Distaff. She should love the mud too. Overall she’s had a good season and is the horse to beat here.
  • 7 Moment in Dixie – She’s not completely outless, but does seem up against it here. She came from the clouds to just miss winning the Doubledogdare at Keeneland, but that’s as close as she’s come. She’s going to need a lot of pace up front to duplicae that effort.
  • 8 Geeky Gorgeous – she’s underrated on the ML at 30-1, but she hasn’t shown an ability to win against this level. She is 11 for 22 lifetime, and sometimes all horses that win do is…win. I’m going to pass but with some reluctance.
  • 9 Snowbell – she’s an improving 3 year old, and that is in her favor, and she doesn’t pick the toughest Grade 3 field to make her stakes debut, but overall I’d have to say she’s overmatched here.
  • 10 Classic Point – she dominated a field in the Punkin Pie but is not likely to have things her own way on the front this time. I’d say she’s up against it.
  • 11 Zucchini  Flower – To my eyes she’s a cut below a solid Grade 3 horse, although she is 3 of 5 in the money this year. Maybe a back hole possibility
  • 12 Playful Love – No reason to believe she has any realistic shot in here.

Race 10

  • 5 Stonely Heart – ran a good race in his debut, running to within 3/4 of Kleptocrat. Tried showing a little more speed in the slop and never looked like he was interested in running on the slop. She’s bred fair for the wet track and we’ll see if she finds the mud as distasteful as the slop.
  • 10 Moldavite – Another that has been in the same races as Stonely Heart and Rose Quartz. In her debut she hit the front and actually held on well for the show. She had the same issue as Stonely in the slop, and is another that we’ll have to see how she feels about the mud.
  • 4 Rose Quartz – this is her 9th start and she only has a second and two thirds. Still, she’s been close enough that she can’t be discounted.
  • 6 Bossy Boots – I really wanted to find a first-time that looked appealing, but since I couldn’t make a good case I thought I’d give the 6 a shot here. She’s about as close as I was going to come – she’s been off since March and has returned with a nice series of works. If she’s filled out she could surprise this field.