All posts by richhalvey

Belmont May 2

It’s Derby day, but for those who can’t resist Belmont, here are today’s picks.

Race 1      2-5-1

Overawe improved when moved to the AQU main. Has the fastest last race figure and Chad Brown in his corner. Woodford Pine is the other Chad Brown horse and adds shades today. Seems to be on the improve. Apache Warrior is making his debut. The workout pattern looks promising and he looks built to sprint.

Race 2      4-6-3

In a race with a lot of question marks, Mish Mosh seems to be the solid turf horse. Been threatening to break through for DJ and today he looks to have a solid shot.  Non Stop has been popular at the claiming box and last time he was taken he returned to the Cannizzo barn. Cannizzo has had success with the horse before at this level and the horse has also had success at BEL. Attractive Ride is a solid veteran that usually runs a competitive race.

Race 3      1-5-2

Tug of War has been stuck in third place in 2015. Fits at the level and the figures say competitive, but you have to demand value. Rap d’Oro is not often far out of a race and has a figure that could easily win this race. Private Tale has a lot of back class and perhaps the shift to the Mike Maker barn will put him back on the winning track.

Race 4      1-5-4

Riposte has been competitive with graded company lately and is very tough at the distance. Rosalind ships over from SA for Chad Brown and comes off two nice runs in graded races. Beauty Parlor shipped over from France and had immediate success for Clement. Best last race figure by far.

Race 5      2-7-8

No Tunes has won at 6 furlongs but the mile seemed a bit of a stretch, Should be comfortable at 7 furlongs and unless one of the turf maidens shows major adaptability she should be in the mix at the end. Miss Loretta Lynn broke her maiden on the turf at BEL. Has had some issues staying, but looks competitive in this field. Jewelisa should be one of the horses coming at the end and is another with competitive turf numbers.

Race 6      1-4-2

The Westchester has a short but distinguished field. Tonalist is back after finishing behind a quality foursome in the BC Classic. He has some workouts that suggest he’s in good shape and should enjoy the mile trip. Palace Malice ended last season with a disappointing performance in the Whitney but prior to that may have been the best older horse in training. He’s been working well and it should be a great race between the top two. Speedball Juba gets the other nod because speed is always dangerous at one turn distances.

Race 7      9-8-12

Boston Strong comes out in 2015 as a gelding. He’s shown a liking for the BEL turf and has a good series of breezes for the 2015 debut. One Eyed Ray is another who won on the BEL turf and hasn’t embarrassed himself is restricted stakes. Chasintheblues improved substantially on the BEL turf last year.

Race 8      3-2-4

Native Hawk was on the verge on the inner, has worked well on the BEL training track. Tommy Macho did not break well in his last but closed strongly and is also working well. Fortuitous Path should be the clear front runner and may forget to stop.

Race 9      3-10-4

Pretension is riding a two race win streak and it would be five if not for a hiccup on the turf last October. Looks well placed and no reason to think he can’t repeat again. Tizquick has a win over the BEL surface and should improve over his last on the AQU main. Ostrolenka was well thought of as a three year old. Disappointed in the 2015 debut, but does have the speed and class to hang on.

Race 10   1a-6-3

This edition of the Fort Marcy brings together a good field headed by the Chad Brown entry of Big Blue Kitten and Hyper. Of the two Big Blue Kitten is the most accomplished. She’s won multiple grade one races, and while he hasn’t been quite the same since turning 6, he’s a still a dangerous competitor and he does some of his best running when fresh. Divine Oath was running decently for Pletcher at GP although he’s finding the going at 4 just a little tougher than at 3. His numbers have been consistent and he should be pressing the leaders in this group. If he gets first jump he’ll be tough to catch. Unbridled Ocean has run well at BEL in the past and has stepped up to Grade 3 with moderate success in the past. He’s as consistent as they come.

Race 11   1a-4-6

The Cheyenne Stables entry of Classy Class and Special Ops looks strong in this NW1X allowance. Classy Class has been with superior horses this year, losing to the likes of Carpe Diem, El Kabeir and Far From Over. His entrymate Special Ops is on the improve and seems well suited for the distance. Gridley Here has been a useful NY bred and while this represents a small step up his numbers suggest he would be competitive in this group. Gold Shield puts the blinkers on for Shug after finishing second at this level a month ago at GP. No reason to expect he won’t be in good shape and a player today.

Race 12   9-1-8

This card-ending sprint on the turf looks like a good spot for A Marked Man to finally break through.He seems much better suited for the sprint distance. The drop down last time was a bit of a tonic and Linda Rice is decent off the layoff. Fear is another that seems better suited for the turf sprint and this price level . He needs to go from the one post and that should help him control the pace. Abandon Ship is much better bred for the turf and the sprint distance. While he hasn’t showed much, he has a little speed. Admittedly a bit of a stretch but at 20-1 he could punctuate the day with an exclamation point.

Belmont May 1

No comments today. Too much to do to get ready for the Derby.

Race 1      7-1-3

Race 2      2-3-5

Race 3      2-4-3

Race 4      4-5-1

Race 5      5-3-6

Race 6      8-9-7

Race 7      2-3-4

Race 8      3-8-1

Race 9      5-8-7

Belmont April 29

Glad to be back at Belmont. That Aqueduct meet was like being in the galley of a Roman ship for six months and finally emerging to see the sunlight. Now the fun begins.

Race 1      5-6-1

Beatle Boots was claimed by Abby Adsit and returned on the AQU main in a mile race where he didn’t disgrace himself. I think his figures look best and the drop to $20K should help.  Astron is a seven race maiden with a couple of second place finishes. No reason he couldn’t find his best stride today. Larry Boy has been competitive at this level and is eligible to get a piece.

Race 2      3-6

McQuaid is the typical multiple time starter finally dropping intp the MCL ranks. While his figures don’t dominate they are tops in the group. He gets a shot to win on the drop, but he won’t get my money at 8-5. El Grillo inherits the place spot after the scratches of 4 and 5. Should be pressing the issue early and may hang on in this limited group.

Race 3      8-5-9

Amber Moning is the best of the turf specialists and seems to be on the top of her form right now. Has a win on the BEL turf and that is a plus. Might be better at the spint distance. Lady Kreesa is 5 for 5 in the money at BEL Finished third last time she was in a sprint. Donk is effective off the layoff. Sweetpollypurebred may be an underdog (tweet if you got that) but she’s been with better state breds and looks best at the sprint distance.

Race 4      7-4-1

Bert Stone had no chance last out when his jockey lost his irons. He’s got good early foot and off his best he’s competitive with this group. Oh Billy Boy is another making a big drop. He’s suspect except he’s got DJ in his corner. Can’t ignore but can’t back him with gusto. Francis Freud goes first time with winners and off a short layoff. Nevin is effective with that move. Figures say competitive.

Race 5      1-5-6

Canzoni is coming from GP in pretty good shape. Pletcher trainee has some figs that would crush this field. If he shows up he’s tough to beat. Cleancut Kid is well bred for the turf and the distance. Conway and De Diego are 3 for 10 together. Worth a look at 8-1.  Bigger Picture is another with a decided preference for the turf and competitive numbers. Rice is decent off the layoff and definitely improved the horse by moving it to the turf.

Race 6      3-2-6

Jc’s Shooting Star ran a good race against Tricky Zippy first out. Moves up in distance but breeding suggests that shouldn’t be a problem. Donk is good 2nd time maiden, sprint to route and routes. Lots of positives. Mohawk Lily perked up dropping back in price and moving up in distance. She’s back at MSW today but she is fast enough to compete with this group. Summon the Spirit has been on the improve. A little dicey on the turf but Jerkens has been having a great 2015 and that might be enough to put her in the mix.

Race 7      4-7-6

A P Johnson has plenty of early foot and is experienced on the turf.  Her one win came on the BEL turf. Given Fire is another with front running ability and competitive figures. Lisa Lewis is decent off the layoff and the horse shows ability to win after a vacation. Barrier to Entry was wide last out and lost any real chance to win. He’s got a win at the distance and a win on the BEL turf. Interesting thought at 8-1 ML.

Race 8      9-7-11

Angela’s Dream was a three time winner in Europe but hasn’t quite gotten on track here. Still, she’s in condition and may take to the sweeping BEL turf.  Might be the value at 5-1 ML. Venus de Milo should be prompting the pace. Maker is great on the turf and off the layoff. Looks tough in here. Bartiromo has a penchant for the BEL turf. Barbara is good off the layoff with a limited sampling. Competitive off her best.

Kentucky Derby 2015

Let me be clear up front. There is certainly more than one horse that can win this race. Unfortunately, at least one of them is unlikely to be bettable based on value. This Derby, for my money, this is as good a field as has been assembled for a few years.

For years Dosage ruled when it came to Derby picks. It is currently considered passe, especially since we’ve had five or so winners that fell outside the ideal dosage parameters. I don’t find it unimportant – it’s a piece of data like a Beyer figure, and must be used for what it is worth. The fault, if there is one in the dosage number, is that it overestimates the sire and underestimates the dam. One thing still resonates for me when it comes to dosage and that is having points in one of the stamina categories.

Another key point is that the best Derby horses have the following characteristics:

  • ability to make a sustained run;
  • push-button speed. This means the ability to accelerate at will;
  • ratability. In other words, the ability to relax as needed;
  • battle-tested. In other words, races where the horse has had to show some heart and toughness.

You want a perfect combination of those characteristics – Secretariat. Watch his triple crown races.

Horses rarely are able to win pressing a fast pace – and don’t kid  yourself, the Derby usually has a fast pace – and the ones who have done it have been against poor fields. That would not describe this year’s Derby. If you believe a horse is likely to be up front early, that’s a good reason to toss him.

Finally, horses with a good ability to close are must use in the back holes.

Let’s go through each of the starters.

1.  Ocho Ocho Ocho – Won a G3 at Delta Downs and finished third in his prep in the Bluegrass. He has one chance from the one post – gun out of the gate. He’s shown no real ability to go to the front and stay, and it is highly unlikely he is an influence in this race. Win probability – 1%

2. Carpe Diem – of all the contenders, he was likely hurt most by the post position draw. He’s another one that will almost be forced to fire out of the gate to get his position, most likely expending some precious energy in doing so. For that reason, of all the horses he is the one that suffered most in my opinion. He is memorable for his second place finish in the BC juvenile, but let’s face it – his two wins this year in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Bluegrass were not scintillating. He’s a horse with talent, and Todd Pletcher in his corner is always worth noting,. I’ll use him, but with less gusto than two weeks ago. Win probability – 12%.

3. Materiality – this is perhaps the horse that has generated the most separation of opinion. There are those who see his Florida Derby as a massive victory, especially considering he vanquished Upstart in that race. There are those who still adhere to the “curse of Apollo” and diminish his chances because he does not have enough two year old foundation. The time between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby is also of concern for a horse with so little foundation. I’m putting him in a secondary category. Win probability – 5%

4. Tencendur – he ran the race of his life in the Wood, but it was still not good enough. Given the assemblage of talent here, I can’t given him more than the nominal win probability – 1%

5. Danzig Moon – finished second to Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass. He really has little to recommend for me other than the potential to close. While I think he has no shot to win, I’ll probably have him in  a back hole. Win probability – 1%

6. Mubtaahij – My instinct tells me this horse has no real chance. Every year that a horse ships from Dubai someone thinks this could be the year, and this year is no different. Mubtaahij is thought to have faced better fields than previous runners, and while we know less about the dam side, he is bred to run all day on the sire side. He has a very low dosage and a stamina point. I’m not inclined to give him a high chance of winning, but he will be in the back holes in the exotics. Win probability – 5%

7. El Kabeir – did what you expect a good horse to do – beat the horses he is supposed to beat. While he started out as a front running sort, he switched styles to great effectiveness in the Gotham. The Wood, in my opinion, was a better than looked race. The pace was slow and El Kabeir looked very lazy in the early going. Once he got going though I thought he showed good ability. He’s not a win prospect, but he’s a must use in the back holes. Win probability – 5%

8. Dortmund – I can only think of one real knock on Dortmund – his three year old races were all won on the front end. That is not going to be successful in this Derby. If I could ask Baffert one question, it would be, how do you intend to run Dortmund? Otherwise, he’s brought the horse to the race in perfect form. He meets most of my criteria for a Derby horse, and more so than stable mate American Pharaoh, he has been tested in battle. Plus he has a win over the CD surface, and don’t discount the importance of that. If Dortmund lives up to his ability, he is a very dangerous horse. Win probability – 17%

9 Bolo – fast horse on the turf, an also ran in this race. He is in the group of horses that should have little to say in the outcome. Win probability – 1%

10. Firing Line – His claim to fame is a hard fought second to Dortmund in the R B Lewis. Truth be told, his walkover win in the Sunland Derby was not of much significance – he beat nothing in that race. He seems to be most likely to be part of the up front duel, which should compromise his chances. I’m going to be kind and give him a win probability – 5%

11. Stanford – He’s a Pletcher trainee and that is pretty much the best thing he has going for him. Win probability – 1%

12. International Star – He is a horse that looks like he improved enormously from 2 to 3 and he dominated the Louisiana preps. He has the style, but his breeding for the mile and a quarter is suspect. He’s a back holer for me. Win probability – 8%

13. Itsaknockout – Another where his biggest positive is Pletcher. He had no business being put up in the Fountain of Youth – in fact, neither he nor Upstart was going to win that race if Frosted didn’t flip his palate. I just can’t give the horse much more than the minimum chance. Win probability – 1%

14. Keen Ice – snuck in after a defection and you’d have thought a major injustice had been righted. I’m not seeing this horse having anything to say in the outcome. Win probability – 1%

15. Frosted – in my opinion, he is the horse with the highest win probability. Now, there is a little bit of faith involved in giving him the nod. He was beaten by Upstart in the Holy Bull and hit the wall in the Fountain of Youth. Was it lack of talent? Perhaps not. He was diagnosed with a common breathing problem, had corrective surgery and came back in the Wood to run a superb race. He has all the things you look for in the Derby horse -speed, stamina (he has a dosage point in the stamina category), and is almost certainly going to run to the best of his ability Saturday. Despite a slow pace in the Derby, he ran by Tencendur without being asked for his best. He is the one horse likely to be beat his odds and for me will be the win bet. Win probability – 18%

16. War Story – is coming out of the Louisiana Preps and looks up against it to me. Win probability – 1%

17. Mr. Z – one win in 12 starts. Enough said. He does not have the talent to beat this field. Win probability – 1%

18. American Pharaoh – whatever you thought might be his race strategy, once he got the 18 his strategies were limited. Most likely he’s going to bust to the front and run from there. He’s 5-2 on the ML. Why? He’s won his races easily, although the competition was limited. He has a bang up work at CD on Sunday, but if I had a dollar for every time Baffert worked a horse fast before a big race, I’d be basking in the dough. That work means Baffert horse more than super talent. He’s not well bred for the distance, so you’ll have to be a believer in the theory that he is a freak, likely to outrun that breeding. This horse is getting all the buzz, and there are plenty of strong opinions that he is the second coming of…California Chrome I guess. He’s a talented horse, but I’m playing the race that his breeding kicks in in the last eighth and he is at best slotted for a minor award. Win probability – 15%

19. Upstart – is a talented horse. The DQ in the FOY was criminal, but the loss to Materiality is of concern. The 19 post doesn’t help either. His breeding seems to suggest a preference for the middle distances. He just doesn’t have enough for me to make him a serious threat, but I’ll use him in some back holes. Win probability – 7%

20. Far Right – has the kind of closing kick that makes him a real in the money threat. He didn’t beat American Pharaoh in Arkansas, and has only beaten some of the lesser runners in here, but he’ll likely start slow, make his way through the field and try for a big run in the stretch. He’ll be in the back holes. Win probability – 8%

The throw-outs for me are Ocho Ocho Ocho, Tencendur, Bolo, Stanford, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, War Story, and Mr. Z. The low-win, but in the money prospects are Materiality, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Firing Line, International Star, Upstart and Far Right. The second tier win prospects are Carpe Diem and Ameican Pharaoh. The likeliest winners in my opinion are Frosted and Dortmund.

And my win bet will be on Frosted.

Kellyn Gorder

Horseplayers can be a cynical group. A trainer gets tagged with a drug or medication violation and most often the reaction is a sarcastic, there-they-go-again. The propaganda machine that is the Water, Hay, Oats Alliance and the Association of Racing Commissioners International has done a good job of convincing the public that racing is overwhelmed with alchemists, determined to win using chemical means at all costs, or that unless horses run free of any medication the sport is tainted.

Let’s be bold and turn to the facts to better understand this “runaway drug use” in racing. A 2010 study commissioned by RCI found the following to be true:

  • There were 324,215 biological samples of blood and urine taken from race horses and tested by labs;
  • Less than one-half of one percent (0.493) came back with a drug or medication overage;
  • As hard as it may be to fathom, this was 20% fewer violations than in 2001;
  • Of the violations, 94% were for legal, therapeutic medications;
  • 47 of the 324, 215 samples tested (that’s 0.015 percent, or about once every 7,000 tests) came back positive for Class 1 or 2 substances, those drugs that are most serious when it comes to concerns about performance enhancement.
  • The study did not differentiate, but a certain percentage of the 47 positive tests were almost certainly due to either errors in administration of legal therapeutic medication, or environmental contamination. This isn’t an excuse. It’s the damn truth.
  • If you’re wondering how this compares to just a few years ago, in 2001 the number of violations for Class 1 and 2 substances were 60. This is despite the fact that new testing equipment can find the equivalent of not just a needle in a haystack, but a needle in all the hay grown in Kansas.
  • Violations of the target drug for WHOA, Lasix, stood at 36 out of 324,215 samples, a 33% reduction from violations in 2001.

If these numbers indicate a crisis in racing, I’d hate to see the reactions if the number of violations hit one percent.

Things have changed a bit since the 2010 study. ARCI is finding more drugs to control, including cobalt. They are urging the absolutely absurd adoption of zero-tolerance standards for known and commonly used therapeutic medications. They have even better mass spectrometers that can find amounts of substances so small they are incomprehensible to the average human sense of proportion.

If you want to look at the bright side of things, the number of violations for real, performance-enhancing substances hardly rises to the level of “the sky is falling.” It is a clear demonstration that trainers are not trying to win through cheating and that the testing programs in place are working.

The idea that some imagined rampant drug use by trainers is why people are staying away in droves is nothing more than finger pointing by unqualified racing commissions and those who have declared a fatwa on any drug use, including therapeutics. It is as much the adoption of unmeetable standards by RCI that guarantees positives at levels that have no relation to performance enhancement and their relentless crowing about nailing trainers who are sincerely trying to comply and are good and caring horsemen. It is their failure to find and harshly penalize the real cheats. It is some poorly conceived idea that the racetrack chemists are hard at work designing undectable boutique drugs and that trainers are clamoring for more and more of them.

We’re not idiots. Of course there are cheats, and I imagine there are drugs that are one step ahead of the testing protocols, but I want to know. Where are the labs making the drugs? Why is racing not spending money finding these Breaking Bad actors and shutting them down? How many veterinarians are willing to lose their livelihood just to make a few extra bucks injecting horses with secret potions? Are you telling me that lab equipment that can detect picogram (trillionth of a gram) level amounts of over 1800 compounds is getting regularly fooled by amateur chemists compounding drugs in their garage? Is that the story we’re supposed to believe?

How many Balcos were there in the United States, and how long did it take for the FBI to eventually felonize them once they put their minds to the task? It is not particularly easy to compound completely undetectable medications, and to suggest it is rampantly occurring is at best an indefensible distortion of reality. It is a few trainers and a few home chemists that are the bad guys, and just like baseball if we make a modest effort we’ll find them and shut them down.

But it is the governors of the sport who create the perception of rampant cheating far beyond the reality of actual cheating. Call it job security, or public relations if you want. If you consider the violations of only performance enhancing drugs and not legitimate, therapeutic medications, as RCI’s own numbers show, the number of starts per violation is an incredibly low number. It is a problem equivalent to the current problem ebola represents in the United States. Lots of fanfare and arm-waving, two cases total.

The anti-drug people cite spurious statistics like, the number of starters per race has decreased since Lasix and Bute became ubiquitous. Yes, and the number of foals born per year has dropped by two-thirds. Now which do you think might be more likely the explanation for lower numbers of starters per race?

Facts have taken a back seat to opinion in a world where science has never been so capable of explaining things. I was watching a piece on some of the anti-GMO folks who believe modified vegetables can put holes in our cells. The actual scientific community finds that idea completely incomprehensible. All but about three scientists in the world believe climate change is in some significant part due to human activity. Medical science tells us that while nothing is 100% guaranteed safe, vaccines come pretty close to that standard, and the likelihood that they cause autism is so miniscule it’s laughable to consider it. But instead of arguing the facts, we argue about philosophy or anecdote or undocumented opinion. We give serious TV time to someone who would walk onto the floor of the Senate with a snowball to “prove” the earth is not warming. Even if you don’t buy the global climate change science, you have to be smart enough to recognize a snowball in winter is proof of nothing more than it still snows in winter in the northeast, and that isn’t going to change unless the tilt of the earth’s axis changes.

I apologize for the long intro, but all this leads to the case of Kellyn Gorder. Gorder is considered an excellent horseman, and until the fisaco in Kentucky, a guy that has an almost unblemished record for medication violations. In 2013 he had a positive for Clenbuterol, a drug for which many of the top trainers in the sport have been dinged. That’s it in close to tens years of having a trainer’s license

On November 22, 2014, he ran a horse called Bourbon Warfare in a maiden race at Churchill Downs. The horse won and was routinely tested. Gorder was notified a month later that the test came back positive for methamphetamine, a Class A substance and a zero-tolerance drug. The initial level was 57 picograms, and the confirmatory test came back at 48 picograms.

I’ve talked about picograms before, but just to refresh everyone’s understanding, a 3cc dose of a substance would contain about 215,000,000 picograms. I asked Dr. Steven
Barker at LSU for the significance of 48 picograms of meth and he said, “48 picograms of meth isn’t enough to get a flea high.” Whatever the actual amount of meth needed to get a flea high, Dr. Barker’s statement is clearly indicative that the amount of the drug in Bourbon Warfare’s system would have zero impact on the horse’s running time. In fact, if the 48 picograms was indicative of anything, it was that the most likely source of the meth was an environmental contamination.

The table shown here  http://resources.psmile.org/resources/information-management/critical-values/Inf1.0-05%20Cut-off%20and%20Toxicity%20Levels%20for%20Drugs%20of%20Abuse%20Testing.pdf says that the therapeutic value (the level at which we would see a physiological effect) is 200 times greater than the level in Bourbon Warfare’s blood.

Bourbon Warfare was stabled at Keeneland in Barn 72. Gorder’s primary barn is 74, but because of space limitations, Barn 72 houses some of the overflow horses. Barn 72 is also used by a handful of smaller trainers, those with 4-6 horse stables. In other words, Gorder was not in as absolute control of the activities in Barn 72 as he was in Barn 74, but even putting that aside, Barn 74 had significance once the meth positive was reported.

Bourbon Warfare was shipped to Churchill for the race and housed in Barn 42. She was returned to Keenland after the race.

After the meth positive, the Kentucky stewards conducted an inspection of Barn 74 at Keeneland and turned up syringes and unlabeled, but legal, medications, but no sign of meth. Gorder explained the syringes were used to treat a horse with antibiotics using a nebulizer and he failed to dispose of them after the treatment was finished, a story that was backed up by his vet. Regardless, the syringes were still considered illegal and the unlabled medication was also a regulatory violation. Gorder has no dispute with those violations or the punishment assigned for them.

I asked Gorder if the inspectors took any samples that might confirm environmental contamination. To the best of his knowledge, he said they took no samples. I asked if they sampled the stall Bourbon Warfare occupied in Barn 72. He said to the best of his knowledge, they never inspected Barn 72. I asked if the people from the transport company were questioned or the transport vehicle tested. Again, no. I asked if Barn 42 at Churchill was inspected. Not that he was aware. I asked if Keeneland or Churchill had video surveillance in place. No to both.

Gorder tested 33 of his employees. All were clean for meth use.

Gorder can, at best, be described as stunned. Like many of the trainers I have spoken with, he feels betrayed by the sport to which he has devoted many of his waking hours for years. Horsemen rise with the sun and toil until after it sets, seven days a week, 52 weeks a year. They are in this game out of love for the horses and love of the game, and Gorder is no exception. If there is an upside for Gorder, it is that he has received almost universal support from his owners and other horsemen, people who have recognized him as the competent, caring horseman he is.

Still, that cannot compensate for being labeled a cheater. It cannot make up for the loss of his reputation in the eyes of the public. Gorder understands the seriousness of the situation. “It’s a serious, serious situation,” he said. “Fourteen months. You’re talking about starting over. The clenbuterol was a wake-up call for me and I really tried to tighten the operation, then this happens. It’s very disheartening.”

The ruling of the stewards has farther reaching impacts. 33 stable personnel – grooms, hotwalkers and exercise riders among others –  will lose their jobs along with Gorder.

Like most of these cases, the judgment of the stewards is based on nothing beyond the fact that some level above zero for a banned substance was found. Did they research the potential for environmental contamination? (For example, studies have shown that upwards of 90% of the paper money in circulation is contaminated with cocaine, which is why the feds have de minimis levels for a cocaine positive. If this were horseracing, pretty close to 100% of racetrack bettors would show a positive level at picograms for coke.) Did they even try to understand the mechanism by which it occurred? Did they thoroughly investigate the other places where the horse was housed, or the other people who handled her? Did they look at the jockey? The person handling the sample in the testing barn? The person in the lab handling the sample? Did they consider the performance enhancing effect of 48 picograms? Did they consider when a horse might have had to have been actually dosed with methamphetamine to have a residual of 48 picograms? Did they ask themselves why someone would dose a horse and then wait until it had cleared out of its system before running it if they were looking for a chemical edge? Did they feel any responsibility for not having better security in place?  No to all of this, and yet at any point between Barn 72 and the lab the horse or the sample could have been contaminated. It’s not as if meth is a rare substance. They didn’t even bother to ask the question.

The overriding question state legislatures need to ask themselves is, when you gave the racing commission the power to oversee the sport, did you mean that they should promulgate rules that are as likely to punish the innocent as the guilty? Was it your intention to rid the sport of the good guys in some misguided zeal to find the bad guys? Have you really helped horseracing to prosper by sending the message to good, honest horsemen that at any time you could lose your livelihood? Are you really happy with how this sport is being managed?

Let’s be realistic. Racing commissions are being pushed by various groups to adopt standards where they have no idea what unintended consequences will occur. Snaring a few dolphins is a small price to pay to grab the tuna.

There is no piece of hard evidence that would convince any rational thinking person that Kellyn Gorder cheated to win a race. On the other hand, there are piles of real and circumstantial evidence leading to the conclusion that cross-contamination is the likeliest explanation for a 48 picogram positive.

The Kentucky Racing Commission still has the chance to do the right thing. Not just for Kellyn Gorder. For horseracing too.

Aqueduct April 26

No analysis today. Too much time spent getting ready for the radio show. And I’m supposed to “work” today at the golf course.

Race 1      4-1-3

Race 2      1-9-4

Race 3      3-5-2

Race 4      3-5-2

Race 5      7-3-2

Race 6      3-6-7

Race 7      5-2-7

Race 8      6-10-5

Race 9      8-3-9

Race 10    7-2-9

Aqueduct April 25

Race 1      2-6-3

Barrister Jim is a versatile horse, winning at the mid-distances as well as routes. He’s on a four race win streak, although the last race in the streak was almost a year ago. That’s not a great sign but he’s won fresh previously. Figures to be the speed and if he’s right, he’s the dominant horse. Chief Energy has been sliding down the claiming ladder but was only a length behind Percussion in his last. Given the odds difference, I’ll give the 6 a long look. Percussion hasn’t won a race in quite a while but he was good enough to finish third in last year’s Excelsior. He should be tracking the favorite and if that one falters he may have first run.

Race 2      2-8-6

Splendid Gold is not particularly well bred for the turf, but almost won his debut race on the green in an impressive time. If he takes to the AQU dirt he’ll be hard to beat. Magical Miss is the 8-5 ML favorite, and as far as I can tell the reasons are that she stumbled badly at the break first out and never had a chance. On the other hand she was almost 10-1 in that debut which means the crowd didn’t think she was a world beater. She may wind up being the best, but the odds aren’t going to be attractive. Zippa Tequila has three starts and all the races have been creditable. She lost by a nose with Irad in the irons and he is back aboard today. Good enough for me.

Race 3      6-9-3

This is a tough time of the year to handicap turf races since a lot of horses are coming off winter dirt races or long vacations. I’m going to favor horses that have shown some ability on the turf in their career. Despite the shaky connections, I’m taking a flyer with longshot Tree Fire. He had a couple of good races on the turf at a higher level at BEL last year, and you’ll notice he primarily ran his turf races without blinkers. A bit chancey, but at 12-1 he’ll get a look from me. Imawarrior was close last year at this level and has a useful series of breezes for his return. Hiddenite should be the pacesetter and has a little bit of condition due to his races on the inner.

Race 4      1-2-5

Salisbury Knight has the best last race number and figures off the drop in price. Empower is going first off the claim for Danny Gargan who has been having a mind-boggling 2015. No reason the horse can’t repeat. Can’t Catch Me Now always runs close and figures to pick up some of the pieces.

Race 5      8-5-6

Adirondack Posse has two strong races on the turf and based on his figures is the fastest horse in the race. Saez is having a good spring meet at AQU. Ack Feisty goes first time for Chad Brown. Brown is exceptional with first time turfers at a route distance and the workouts suggest the horse is ready for the big time. Raffles Bay has been working at breaking his maiden for a while, but off his best his figures say competitive. Worth a look at the long price.

Race 6      7-3-2

Bet the Power ran a very useful conditioning race two weeks ago after being off nine months. Switches to the hot apprentice Cruz for this trip and makes a significant drop in price. Could get back on the winning track here. Candyman E is about 30% lifetime wins and has been with much better in the recent past. Off his best he’s as fast as any horse in the race.  Carolinian is the best early speed in the race and it’s just a question of how far he will take it.

Race 7      3-10-1

Very tough turf race, made tougher by the fact that I’m not enamored with the ML favorites. Mr Rosenthal is 20-1 on the ML. Admittedly he is a little suspect as he approaches the wire, but he will be with the front runners and his single win last year came off a long layoff. Not a stickout top choice, but not one to ignore either. With Exultation is another that looked good first off the layoff, and Trombetta is good with that move. He always gives a good effort and the competent Jose Ortiz takes the mount. Blue Pigeon gets the final nod. He always seems to be in the mix at the end and while his numbers aren’t as high as some, they are consistent. Clement in your corner is a big positive.

Race 8      7-6-2

The Excelsior marks the return of the well-regarded Wicked Strong. He is the “name” horse in the race and will likely be every bit of his even money ML. He was beaten in his first race of the year at GP in a Grade 2 but ran creditably. With some impovement second time on the track, there is every reason to expect him to win. Red Rifle has been keeping graded company lately and is 1 for 1 at the mile and a quarter distance. At 10-1 he may be one of the value runners. Effinex should have no problem getting the mile and a quarter and has some current condition. Another longshot with better chances than his odds suggest.

Race 9      10-6-8

Killer Crossover never took to the GP turf and was gelded since his last. He drops in price and and looks to duplicate his turf runs from last year. The mild choice. With Expression should be up with the leaders and has consistent turf numbers. Competitive off his best. Frogman Mel should be running in the stretch and could snag a piece.

Aqueduct April 23

Race 1      1-4

Storied Tale goes for Wesley Ward who is lights out with youngsters. If he lives up to his early billing he should win the race. Usually the one post is difficult for young horses, so her success may hinge on her ability to get out. La Nina has a great set of works for her debut and Storm Cat’s can be precocious.

Race 2      6-3-2

Rivetto has been with better in the recent past and his last race was his best in a while. A similar run today gives him a big chance to win. Larrytheeducator comes out of the same race as Rivetto. He’s run consistent figures and should be the one running at the end. Charitable ran a good one last out and Jason Servis has been hot in 2015. Looks primed for his best effort.

Race 3      5-2-6

Consumer Credit won a G3 at Gulfstreat in January and finished a close second in the Florida Oaks. The class of this group. Pine Needles won his first two for Clement and comes into this one off a short rest. Nice maintenance works for the debut in NY. Colour Party ships over from Ireland, gets Lasix (of course) for his stateside debut. Clement is out of sight with Euro shippers.

Race 4      4-6-7

This race has no standout. Rambam perked up when moved to the main and should be in a good stalking position. To Erin Again has been close his last two and should be the speed of the field. Hung in the mud last out, but with a better track he may have a say at the wire. S S Dixie should appreciate the cutback in distance and looks like he is peaking on his form cycle..

Race 5      6-8-9

William’sluckygray scratched out of an event yesterday to go in this spot, now off the turf. Has the best early speed in the group and competitive numbers. Despite the 1 for 19 record, I’m willing to give him a shot. Knacque looks like a turf horse, but has a wet track win on the dirt. Looks to be in shape and considering he was an MTO I’d have to think she was well meant if the race switched to the dirt. Fiery Cat just broke her maiden on a sloppy track and looks competitive for the first time with winners.

Race 6      9-1A-8

Be Bullish drops down to a $25K claimer after beating a slightly more expensive field. Steady series of works for this one and best last out figure. The RuRod entry both show high early speed so it would make sense to scratch one. Still, either is going to be a front running factor. Carolinian looked to be the better of the two, but The Big Deluxe has had plenty of success with better than these. Smokem’s Charm drops down for Charlton Baker. He’s been running consistently and has a good shot against these.

Race 7      3-7-4 (1)

Beyond the Green certainly has the name to be a winner here. He goes with winners for the first time but based on the figures he should prosper at the higher level. Swivel raced well first out against winners and should be rolling in the stretch. Bullheaded Boy has been with much better and should be competitive here. The MTO Fleeting makes it into the race and has the best numbers in the field. A real danger on the dirt.

Race 8      6-5-7

Accomplish First looks for four in a row, although the first three were 10 months ago. Dilger has been super bringing horses back off the long layoff and the horse has shown he can win off the vacation. Here’s Zealicious is 11 for 28 lifetime although lately he’s been having some trouble finding the winners circle. Still, he fits well and has competitive numbers. Bar of Gold looks for his third in a row but would have to improve some to beat this field.

Race 9      2-5-6

Devilish Grin gets fist Lasix and should benefit from the switch to Cruz. Wild Ham should like the distance and is improving each race. Kerry Boy obviously didn’t care for the mud and he’s a little bit of a stab, but the works say he is better than he showed last out. Worth a flyer perhaps.

Aqueduct April 22

Race 1      2-6-3

Call for the Clock is dropping from starter allowance to an open claimer. He’s 2 for 4 on the AQU main and 3 of 8 at the distance. Jacobson claimed the horse two back and he is usually shrewd about placing them where they can win. Cousin Michael has been routing for a while. He has had great success at this distance and on the AQU main, and has the figures to take this event. Bambisfrostyracer returns at the level where he had success last out should be in a good striking position turning for home.

Race 2      2-7-1

Glickman is the speed of the race and if he doesn’t break down he’s a high probability to wire the field. Love to Run should be pressing and can benefit if Glickman doesn’t run his race. Grandpa Len looks for two in a row and is another than can benefit if Glickman falters.

Race 3      1-6-3

Golden Itiz makes his third start for Nevin and drops into a much more comfortable spot today. Risk Management is double digit odds on the ML but has the figures to pull an upset here. Regulus drops down a few levels today; has beaten better in the recent past.

Race 4      6-9-2

This is a complete mess of a race so I’ll go with Theresa’s Candyrose. She has the best turf figures and with only five starts is eligible to improver. Traipse in Utopia takes a big drop, has some turf experience, and turf numbers that should put him in the mix. Gimme Jimmy goes first time with winners and should be in a good striking position entering the stretch.

Race 5      4-2-5

Lietenant Seany O was taken by Linda Rice last out and should be comfortable at this level. Last race was his best in a while. Mr. Palmer is another taking a healthy drop. His best figures would top this field but he hasn’t been at his best for a while. Still, have to respect. Tizmas raced well after the grab by Servis and fits well in this group.

Race 6      9-4-1

Another race where it seems like there is guesswork involved. Sakonnet Point has turf experience and the best numbers by far. She’s All Even hasn’t been on the turf but should be the front runner here and is well bred for the distance. Unspoken showed a bit of early foot last out before fading badly in a sprint, but she is actually better bred for the turf and the route distance. Worth a look at a pice.

Race 7      4-6-5

Jersey’s Kittens raced well first time with winners and has been working very well at Fair Hill.  Midnight Champagne should be the speed with the scratch of the 3 and has a the numbers to hold off the closers. Jilly Mac also ran well first time out with winners and fits with this group.

Race 8      2-3-6

Coltimus Prime was racing with Graded runners last year and settles with a much more comfortable bunch today, Coach Inge gets a positive switch to Velasquez and should be the pacesetter. Good enough figures to compete here. Bemata has the best closing kick and will be coming hard at the end.

Race 9      4-7-2

Gregg’s Beauty showed good early speed last out and should improve today. Myrtlerose has improved in both her starts and looks good in this field. Imposseble Dream was squeezed and steadied at the start last race but still showed interest. Improvement possible at a price.