Race 1

• 5  Bustin the Bank  9/5

• 2  American Creed  3-1

• 4  Bug Juice  7/2

Race 2

• 7  Consumer Confidence  9/5

• 3  Orleans Avenue  5/2

• 5  Mr. Neetie  4-1

Race 3

• 1/1A  Blarney Stones/Game of Stones  2-1

• 5  Red Hook Express  3-1

• 6  Afleet’s Edge  7/2

Race 4

• 7  Degree of Freedom  9/5

• 1  Sneaky Fair

• 8  Natalie La Rose  4-1

Race 5

• 2  Doukas  5/2

• 8  Arietta  7/2

• 10  Aussie Prayer  4-1

• 1  Hatta’s Appeal  4-1

Race 6 

• 5  I Win  7/2

• 7  Black Tide  4-1

• 6  Chasintheblues  9/2

• 4  River Knight  5-1

Race 7

• 7  Numbered  2-1

• 5  Won Dozen Banks  5/2

• 1  Art Boss  3-1

Race 8 

• 2  Dea  5/2

• 5  Stella Street  3-1

• 3  Theresas Candyrose  4-1

• 1 Sky Painter  9/2

Race 9

• 7  Cloontia  4/5

• 8  Cuckoo’s Saloon  5/2

• 2  Uncle Chester  3-1

Race 1

• 3  Willie’s Mojo  3-1

• 7  Tom’s Gift  2-1

• 5 You Got It  7/2

Race 2

• 5  Suffused  2-1

• 4  Mojo Risin  2-1

• 2  Onus  3-1

Race 3

• 1  Dontbetwithbruno  2-1

• 5  Touchofstarquality  5/2

• 4  Indycott  3-1

Race 4

• 7  Animal Appeal  5/2

• 1  First Charmer  7/2

• 4  Startwithsilver  7/2

Race 5

• 10  Majority  3-1

• 7  There Goes Ben  4-1

• 6  Ezra  5-1

Race 6

• 5  Mordi’s Miracle  3-1

• 1  Be a Hero  7/2

• 2  Rich ‘n Tuck  7/2

• 6  Bad Hombre  4-1

Race 7

• 11  The Imposter  3-1

• 4  Came Back  7/2

• 10  Storm Pursuit  5-1

Race 8

• 1  Katie Ice  5/2

• 8  Ametrine  3-1

• 5  Town Fair 4-1

• 3  Bea Bea 9/2

Race 9

• 7  Easy Comparison  3-1

• 3  Waymond Boyd  3-1

• 8  Reverend Green  7/2

Race 10

• 8  Summer Reading  3-1

• 1  Wonderment  7/2

• 3  Lightstream  7/2

Race 11

• 1  Paulassilverlining  4/5

• 5  Blithely  4-1

• 3  Stormy Sky  5-1

Race 12

• 4  Disco Bill  5/2

• 8  Southern Union  4-1

• 10  Tiz a Chance  5/2

There is only one question worth asking in the Preakness – can Exaggerator turn the tables on Nyquist? And while you’re not supposed to answer a question with a question, I’d answer, what scenario can you imagine that will compromise Nyquist enough to set up the race for a closer like Exaggerator?

There are plenty of speed horses to challenge Nyquist – Uncle Lino, Awesome Speed, Collected, Laoban and Abiding Star all look like they would prefer running toward the front. But Nyquist has proven he doesn’t need the lead to win and from the three post he should get whatever position Mario Guttierez decides works the best. Nyquist proved he could go on first class fractions in the Derby and still have plenty left to finish.

How about a wet track compromising the favorite? Well, he’s 1 for 1 on a wet track so it is hard to imagine that will be his undoing.

With all the speed Exaggerator should find himself in a perfect position turning for home, and he just needs to stay clear of any traffic. If you believe he’ll be good enough this time you’ll likely get a fair price. But I expect that any potential win bet will stay in my pocket this day.

1 Cherry Wine.  He has a win in an OC$75K  NW1X at GP and an in the money finish in the Blue Grass at KEE. He’s one of the horses that expects to do his best running late, but I’m not seeing him making a real impact. 30-1

2 Uncle Lino. He has one thing definitely in his favor.  He comes here from SoCal where he faced the better horses on the Derby trail. He should show speed, and if he needs to lead there’s a good chance he’ll get buried late. I would put him at the end of the verticals. 15-1

3 Nyquist. What possible negative could you come up with on Nyquist? He’s handled the distance that many people questioned. He’s run on rock hard and sticky tracks. He’s won on the front and from off the pace. He’s got nothing but graded wins after breaking his maiden. You can take a flyer with another horse, but in my opinion it is exactly that – a flyer.  4/5

4 Awesome Speed. Awesome Speed is the “local horse,” the horse that has some experience in Maryland. But from my perspective, that’s about all I can use to generate any interest in the horse. 35-1

5 Exaggerator. Exaggerator was somewhat up against it in the Derby, having to close from well off the pace and near the back of the field. He’s shown he can handle a sloppy racetrack, and actually doesn’t need to be way out of the race early. I think strategically he has to keep Nyquist in his sights and look to outfinish him, but thinking he’s going to make up 6 or 7 lengths in the stretch against the champion might be a big ask. 5-2

6 Lani. Lani’s downside in the Derby was coming off a brutal schedule of Japan to Dubai to Kentucky. He expectedly ran middling in the Derby and I’m not sure why the horse improves in the Preakness. He’s well bred for the wet track, but I’m sticking with my Derby opinion. He needs a rest. 20-1

7 Collected. Collected is another of the horses likely to prompt the pace. He has a couple of positives in his favor. First, he’s not a lead at all cost sort, so he could be relaxed early. Second he’s trained by Bob Baffert, who is always dangerous. Finally, he won the Lexington impressively last out. He’s improving and could be the surprise. 9-1

8 Laoban. Laoban has shown a lot of speed in his last two starts, but has not been able to sustain it. He’s another Uncle Mo and should get some early calls, but I can’t seem him sticking around that long. 40-1

9 Abiding Star. Abiding Star is riding a three race win streak, albeit against much less than he’ll be facing here. He generally shows speed, and no reason to expect he’ll change his strategy here. In my mind, he’s just not good enough to make an impact. 40-1

10 Fellowship. Fellowship has been trying graded stakes for a while with little success. Despite having Mark Casse in his corner, he just hasn’t shown me enough to get a nod. 30-1

11 Stradivari. Stradivari is very lightly raced – in fact, and complete X factor. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, and that will get him some backing. Do I think he deserves to be the third choice on the ML? Who knows exactly what kind of horse Pletcher is bringing to the race. This is a better-safe-than-sorry play. Throw him in the verticals because you don’t have enough information to throw him out. 9-1

We’re not left with a lot of options in this race. Anything other than Nyquist or Exaggerator looks like a big upset, and if those two come 1-2 there won’t be much of a payoff. The play may be the Superfecta, with the hope that something surprising fills out the back end.

Here’s my $84 Super play based primarily on Nyquist and Exaggerator dominating. If it comes 3-5 with the other more heavily used horses, you have a chance at a $4.50 Super.

• $1          Superfecta      3/5/2,7,11/all
• $2          Superfecta      3/5/2,7,11/2,7,11
• $1          Superfecta      3,5/3,5/2,7,11/2,4,6,7,11
• $0.50   Superfecta      3/2,5,7,11/2,5,7,11/2,4,5,6,7,11

Of course you could just bet a $50 exacta of Nyquist and Exaggerator and save yourself the sweat for third and fourth!

Race 1

• 2  Queens Tiara  2-1

• 5  Ragazza Piu Bella  5/2

• 3 Lil Renegade  5-1

Queens Tiara drops down in price for Pletcher – possible opportunity to start making space in his stable. Should have no problem with the distance and has a win in one try at BEL. Ragazza Piu Bella was claimed last out by Bruce Brown and he drops her into this spot today. Last race wasn’t great but prior to that had run figures that would be competitive here. Lil Renegade took 15 tries to break her maiden but in this field has outs.

Race 2 

• 5  Yenta   2-1

• 8  Secret Eden  5/2

• 6  Naughty Grace  4-1

Yenta didn’t appear to care for the mud last out but run well in the penultimate race. Nobody sticks out on figures so I like a horse with fewer starts. Secret Eden puts the blinkers on after running so-so on the turf last out. Back to the dirt today and she seems better suited for that surface. Naughty Grace has been working a while to break her maiden but does seem apt to finish in the money.

Race 3 

• 6  Noble and True  9/5

• 7  Drop Shot  2-1

• 2  Chomsky  4-1

Noble and True puts the blinkers on today. Has excellent turf breeding and if his dirt figures transfer he looks the fastest. Drop Shot perked up when moved to the turf last out and looks like the primary competition. Chomsky has been trying this for a while but hasn’t cracked through. Still looks solid in the verticals.

Race 4

• 2/2B  Live in Joy/Frogman Mel  9/5

• 3  Midnight Notes  2-1

• 1/1A  Husband’s Folly/LIttle Jerry  5/2

• 7 Coturnix  4-1

This race could be a mess after scratches. The Steve Klesaris entry of Live In Joy and Frogman Mel gets the nod. Live In Joy is jumping up but does generally run hard. Frogman Mel figures well at the distance and on the turf. Midnight Notes has been close lately but needs to show some courage in the stretch. Both of the David Jacobson entry of Husband’s Folly and Little Jerry aren’t likely to get to the gate, but Little Jerry looks like the strongest entrant here. Coturnix looked very good before shipping off to FG. Could inherit the lead if Little Jerry doesn’t go.

Race 5 

• 11  Street Fightin Man  3-1

• 7  Shootout  5/2

• 2  Risky Sour  4-1

• 9  Fleeting Gold  9/2

I’ll be honest. This field is horrible. Hardly any horse looks well meant for the turf, and a number of them are professional maidens. I only provide picks to have something going in the horizontals. Street Fightin Man will have to draw into this race, but he’s been gelded since his last and has the best figure of the field. Shootout is one making his turf debut and actually has some decent turf breeding. Risky Sour is 0 for 21, and normally I pitch those horses out of hand, but in this field he’s got a chance to be part of the picture. Fleeting Gold hasn’t been on the turf but he has some speed and if he grabs the surface he’ll be competitive. Shootout is another making his turf debut and actually has some decent turf breeding.

Race 6

• 8  Stone Supplier  2-1

• 2  Is She Hot  3-1

• 5  Lutheran Miss  7/2 

• 6  Just Catty  4-1

Stone Supplier didn’t run well on the sloppy track last out but prior to that had the top figure in the field. Makes a pretty steep drop, but if the horse is right she should be the winner. Is She Hot just won at this level and she is capable of putting together back to back good starts. Lutheran Miss gets a nice switch to Jose Ortiz and should fit well in this group. Just Catty has been banging at this level for a while and has potential to be part of the verticals.

Race 7 

• 3  More Than Rainbows  3-1

• 2  Saratoga Karaoke  3-1

• 5  Magsamelia  4-1

• 4  Chow Fun   4-1

More Than Rainbows comes off the HORSES TO WATCH list and that improvement on the turf gives her the nod today. Saratoga Karaoke is making her 2016 debut. Last year her first race of the year produced a winning effort. She certainly has the talent to be a factor. Magsamelia should be the speed here and her last was better than looked against a more talented field. Chow Fun just won at this level and cuts back in distance today.

Race 8

• 4  Uncle Youdge  5/2

• 3  Summer Candy  7/2

• 1  Man of Wiregrass  4-1

• 5  E J’s Legacy  5-1

Uncle Youdge has two nice races at LRL and ships over for good percentage trainer Hugh McMahon. I like the improvement potential. Summer Candy makes his 2016 debut for Christophe Clement. He adds blinkers today and if he runs to last year’s numbers he’s in the mix. Man of Wiregrass ran a bang-up race on the turf last out and jumps up in price for his first with trainer Klesaris. E J’s Legacy is stakes placed with statebreds and his best race is on the turf. Interesting prospect.

Race 9 

• 7  Pussy Willow   5/2

• 10  Rosey Bay  3-1

• 11  Three Eighty Eight  3-1

• 12  Love Blues  3-1

• 14  She’s All Love  3-1

This is another impossible race. Of the horses with turf experience in the main field Pussy Willow and Rosey Bay stand out. The three other horses – Three Eighty Eight, Love Blues, and She’s All Love all are on the also eligible list. If any or all draw in they would be contenders.

Race 1

• 3  Honor River  5/2

• 5 Star Empire  3-1

• 4  Fuhrlong  2-1

Honor River sold for 13 times the stud fee. Mark Casse is good with 2 YOs. Breeding says he should relish the distance. Star Empire goes for Wesley Ward who is 24% with debuting 2 YOs. Furlong has two starts and two seconds. He could be by far the best, or a horse struggling to become a winner.

Race 2

• 3  Readthebyline  8/5

• 6  Onecats Chance  3-1

• 2  Hunt’s Road  7/2

Readthebyline is no win machine, but did just win one at this price. Has been successful at BEL and the distance. Onecats Chance is another that doesn’t have a high win percentage, but is dropping today and that may be enough to propel him forward. Hunt’s Road was claimed last out by RuRod. He’s been with better in the recent past and does seem to have a more reliable win percentage.

Race 3

• 3  The Great Whiteway  2-1

• 5  Prospectus  5-2

• 4  Daggerpoint  4-1

The Great Whiteway is one of the horses that figures to be near the front and has the best figures of the group. Prospectus was TC nominated and makes a big drop for Pletcher. This is usually a sign that he is just thinning out the stable, and if the horse is in condition he’ll be a reliable bet. Daggerpoint has a race at BEL and while he figures slightly behind the top two, has some potential in the verticals.

Race 4

• 3  Tracking Stock  3-1

• 11  End Play  7/2

• 5  Big Platinum.  4-1

• 7  Finalize  6-1

Tracking Stock drops back to $40K after running decently in a  MSW at GP. Chad Brown trainee has a second at BEL and a top last race figure. End Play has to overcome the far outside post, but he has plenty of backstretch to find a good attacking spot. Last time he was in a MCL he nearly won. Should appreciate the cutback in distance. Big Platinum dropped down to a MCL last out that got moved off the turf to a sloppy main track. Should appreciate the return to the grass and the cutback in distance. Finalize barely missed in his first race last year. Could be any sort.

Race 5

• 5  Outzap  5/2

• 9  Don’t Blame Her  3-1

• 3  Wild Street Girl  4-1

• 2  Moneybrook  9/2

Outzap drops in half after breaking her maiden for $35K. Should be the early speed and has the top last race figure. Don’t Blame Her has run well at BEL and gets a switch to Jose Ortiz today. Last race was her best by far. Wild Street Girl goes for the suddenly ice cold Abby Adsit. She already has a race with winners that was decent. Moneybrook ran decently in the mud and should get a surface more like the one she won on today. Interesting at the price.

Race 6

• 1  Love That Jazz  8/5

• 4  Bluegrass Prevails  2-1

• 6  In Condition  4-1

Love That Jazz was a state-bred stakes winner last year and ran well in his 2015 debut race. A return to his best 2 YO figure wins this race. Bluegrass Prevails has a ton of speed and has already been racing in 2016. Major threat to the top choice. In Condition had trouble at the break last out and was declared a nonstarter. Prior to that had shown good speed and a willingness to finish.

Race 7

• 10  Uncle Sigh  5/2

• 2  Slew’s Brew  7/2

• 9  Ocala Jim  9/2

• 6  Memories of Peter  5-1

Uncle Sigh really improved when moved to the turf last out and has by far the best last race figure. Slew’s Brew clearly didn’t care for the inner dirt but returned to form when moved back to the turf. Low-key trainer/jockey should ensure nice odds. Ocala Jim won his last at AQU and has had good success at BEL. Memories of Peter makes his 2016 debut on the BEL turf where he has run his best races.

Race 8

• 7  Vicki’s Dancer  2-1

• 3  Tahoe Tigress  3-1

• 4  Zippity Zoom  4-1

Vicki’s Dancer didn’t run her best race when moved to a stakes on the turf but prior to that impressively won a sprint at this level, Tahoe Tigress makes her 2016 debut at her lowest price in a long while. If she comes out running she’s got outs. Zippity Zoom should be the frontrunner here and Linda Rice is 24% off the short layoff.

Race 9

• 2  Dreamaker  9/5

• 5  Just the Zip  5/2

• 6  Certain Something  9/2

• 7  Completely Bonkers  9/2

Dreamaker has the top figure on the turf, although it came in a 5F sprint. Still, should have the speed to get a good spot on the rail and should have no issue with the 7 furlong distance. Just the Zip is better on the turf and should adapt fine to the sprint distance. Certain Something only has one race but showed a bit of speed on a track that was deadly to front speed. Could be the surprise here. Completely Bonkers makes his 2016 turf debut for Linda Rice who is 15% moving from dirt to turf. Note his best lifetime race came on this BEL turf.

I’m going to try something a little different for a while. In the last few days I’ve had a number of high priced horses that were one of my top of my three picks per race, including a $70 horse. I’ve long suggested that a major problem horseplayers have is that they can be too selection oriented. In other words, the highest probability horse is seen by some as THE winning horse or the horse to bet. I’ve consistently advised my followers to bet the overlay in the top three horses. I believe all of the three are contenders. Of course, the way I was giving out picks it was impossible to tell when I thought the top horse was a 4/5 shot and when I thought it was a 3-1 shot. I’m resolving that today. Now you will be able to tell whether I think the top choice is much the best or barely the choice. The odds I’m listing are the actual odds to win, meaning you decide when the horse reaches bettable odds. But as always, BET THE VALUE whether it is listed first, second, or third..

Race 1

• 5 Swell   2-1
• 1  Hey Bro  5/2
• 2  Wheels Up Now.  3-1

Swell is 2 of 4 at BEL and in his last five races hasn’t been worse than second. Hey Bro battled at this level the last two races and missed by slim margins both times. Love the Danny Gargan angle. Expensive purchase Wheels Up Now broke his maiden in fine fashion last out and cuts back in distance. Should do well at the shorter distance.

Race 2

• 4  McCorleot  4-1
• 6  Asscher  3-1
• 8  Special Risk 6-1
• 11  Fiesta   2-1

McCorleot is an Uncle Mo who seems to be the hot, new sire. She sold for four times her sire fee, and has a workout pattern I really like – fast first work and some good subsequent works. Asscher is very well bred for this distance and has the top two year old trainer in Todd Pletcher. Workout pattern is pedestrian, but that is Pletcher’s usual MO. Special Risk goes for RuRod who is 23% with first time two YOs. Fiesta looks to be the better of the Pletcher horses and gets the favorite’s nod if she draws in.

Race 3

• 4  Familyofroses   6/5
• 5  Live Love Laugh 2-1
• 2  Valkimqua  5/2

Familyofroses has only two wins in 24 starts, with 13 seconds and thirds. Has the best figures, although that’s been the case before. Live Love Laugh should be most of the early speed here and for that reason she has to be given a chance. Valkimqua has a tendency to finish in the money and could be used in the verticals here.

Race 4

• 11  Pleasure Cruise  3-1
• 5  Frostie Anne  7/2
• 3  Freckle de Freck  5-1
• 8 Irish Actor  6-1

Pleasure Cruise cuts back to six furlongs in her first race since last November. Returns at the same level she dropped to last year. Morrison is 2 for 9 with his returnees.  Frostie Anne drops out of MSW to the claiming level. Her one sprint on the turf she just missed. Freckle de Freck really improved first time on the turf and has a figure that should be competitive with this group. Irish Actor will have to come from off the pace. Does have a third over the BEL turf.

Race 5

• 1/1A  Red Creme/Whateveryouwant  5/2
• 5  Richie’s Rich  2-1
• 8  Galardonado  4-1

The entry of Red Creme and Whateveryouwant looks strong. Red Creme is riding a two race win streak including one at BEL two weeks ago. Whateveryouwant was snatched by Jacobson when dropped to $20K and actually may be the better of the two runners. 9 of 12 in the money. Richie’s Rich is one of a group of speed horses that should be in the early scrum. Is riding a three race win streak, and drops down to a new low price. May go favorite, but the drop seems more negative than positive. Galardonado won for $25K and was claimed by Steve Asmussen out of that race. He jumped up to $50K on a muddy BEL track and ran creditably. Certainly not out of the question.

Race 6

• 8  Ack Naughty  9/5
• 6  Take It Inside 3-1
• 7  Maura’s Pass  4-1
• 1  Jc’s Shooting Star  5-1

Ack Naughty hasn’t been worse than second lifetime and has successfully come back off a layoff. Clearly the top figure horse. Take It Inside showed good speed in her return from the layoff and should be all the speed here. Cutback in distance won’t hurt. Maura’s Pass has two wins in five tries at BEL and is 1 for 1 at the distance. Makes his 2016 debut for Jason Servis who is 22% off the layoff. Jc’s Shooting Star has a first and two seconds in four tries on the turf. Definitely figures in this group.

Race 7

• 3  Know It All Anna  3-1
• 5  Nuffsaid Nuffsaid  7/2
• 2 Scuba Sue  4-1

Know It All Anna already has a win at the meet and drops to the claiming ranks today. Perhaps a negative drop, but she has the best figures. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid won a stakes in the AQU mud last out for high percentage trainer Danny Gargan. Seems a little bit of an in-and-outer, but at her best is a prime contender. Scuba Sue has raced with better and on her best figures is right in the mix.

Race 8

• 4  Happyness  8/5
• 2 Queen’s Parade  5/2
• 1  Season Ticket  5-1

Happyness won impressively first time in the U.S. and should only improve today.  Queen’s Parade ran a big one first out of 2016 at AQU. Seems to have some trouble cracking the win slot, but always runs competitively. Season Ticket has been with better and has an outside shot today.

Race 9

• 5  Pegasus Storm  3-1
• 1  Broken Border  4-1
• 8  Flying K C  6-1

Pegasus Storm is the longshot play of the day. This race is not full of high quality runners, and this horse has some positives. First, she improved substantially when moved to the turf last out. Second, she gets a positive rider switch. Third, she’s cutting back distance. And finally she showed a little more interest overall last out. Broken Border has clearly the best turf numbers, but has had plenty of opportunity to win and seems unable to pass horses when it counts. If he wins, it wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m looking at the top choice for value. Flying K C is another that has had plenty of opportunity to win. Has shown some interest in finishing in the money, so I’ll give him potential in the verticals.

Race 1.     4-6-5

Pass the Dice is riding a two race win streak and was taken by Mike Miceli last out. Looks to be in top shape. Day of Fury had been racing with much better horses, dropped to $12500 last out and was grabbed by Jason Servis. He jumps him up to $25K. Likes BEL and is accomplished at the distance. Box Office flopped last out but was snagged by DJ. He’s still dangerous first off the claim.

Race 2.     1-3-7-6

Young Anna Lee didn’t disgrace herself in last year’s Lynbrook and ran creditably in her 2016 debut. Best figure of the starters. Empress Jingu goes first time for Pletcher/Castellano. Long workout pattern, but Pletcher usually has them ready to roll. Cat’s Halo has a good figure off his drop-down race but is back at the MSW level. Has  chances to be part of the verticals. Rubicon ran better than looked last out considering she ran into a dominant winner.

Race 3.     7-3-6

Classic Salsa has the best last out figure and takes a drop to a level at which he’s had prior success. Songsational ran well first time out in 2016 and Mott is pretty good 2nd off the layoff. Manhattan Mischief  is much better than his last looked and should appreciate the cutback in distance.

Race 4.     9-5-7

Cracking Good Pins rushed into contention last out, took the lead in the stretch but couldn’t hang on. Consistent numbers suggest she’s a contender. One Penny Piece goes third off the layoff for Phil Serpe and should run an improved race today. Bargaining Table never got into the last race but prior to that ran very competitively with this price level.

Race 5.     8-6-9

Call Me Stoney comes off the layoff for 23% Bruce Levine. If he’s in condition he’ll be dangerous. Gunlock finally broke his maiden and came right back to almost beat winners. Definite contender. Brolic just won his maiden and takes the best last race figure into this one.

Race 6.     1-9-2-5

Rediscover looks primed for Kieran McLaughlin and seems to have found the good life on the grass. Balls or came close to breaking his maiden last out at GP and may prompt the pace in a race with very little. War Bond lost a lot of chance when he broke slow last out. With a better break he’ll save ground from the one post and should improve his figure substantially. Sport was another who lost his chances at the break but still showed interest and finished full of run.

Race 7.     10-7-5

Brimstone lost by the slimmest of margins last time and fits this level well. Should be the one to catch. The Crocheron Kid ran well in a much higher class level for his 2016 debut; improvement expected. River Knight has been in the money regularly but can’t seem to get that second win. Still, has a big last race figure and seems better than his 10-1 ML.

Race 8.     6-1-3

Elnaawi should have had plenty of time to recover from his foray to Dubai and seems the classiest of the graded animals. His best figures overpower the field. Turbo Bravo won a restricted stake two back and wasn’t embarrassed in the G3 Excelsior. One of a few who has a successful race at the distance.  Neck ‘n Neck adds blinkers today and is a G3 winner. Good combination of speed and finish.

Race 9.     8-12-5

Madame Barbarian makes a substantial drop in price today. Figures suggest she should take care of this field. Antebellum improved when dropped to this level. Should be competitive today. Eqho adds Lasix today. Ran well first time out, not running too far behind Antebullum. Should appreciate the slight stretch out.

Race 1.     7-4-1

Crimson Cat ran well first out for Barclay Tagg and gets a positive switch to Castellano. Miss Aja Brown should be the speed here and looks more capable at the MCL level. Tiz Twice didn’t break smartly last out which was killing in a 5 furlong race. Very well bred for the distance and drops from MSW down to the claiming ranks. Give consideration at the odds.

Race 2.     4-8-6

Sunny Puzzle has plenty of speed and a tendency to finish in the money. Has run with much better in the recent past.  Giant Fox is dropping substantially in price today and at his best should handle this field. Has a win and two seconds in three tried at BEL, Fleeting fits the conditions and his figures say he is competitive.

Race 3.     6-5-4

Doctor Mounty adds the blinkers today. Looks well suited to the distance and the last work suggests he’ll be prompting the pace. Justalittlebitmore just missed last out and should do well with the stretch out. Louies Baby Boy broke poorly last out but worked to get into the race and expectedly faded. Should be competitive with a better break.

Race 4.     3-1-7-9

Proletariat should be the speed here. His last two showed some talent at this level. Clifton Pleasure has been knocking around at this level for a while, but has shown a tendency to finish in the money. Reasonable expectations today. Timber may have been a little over his head in the state-bred stakes last out but is in a better spot today. Should do fine on the stretch out. Hit It Once More just broke his maiden in his first out of 2016. Has shown a liking for the BEL dirt.

Race 5.     1-8-2

Royal Ekati goes first out for Barclay Tagg who is 21% with limited debut horses. Is very well bred for the sprint. Like the workout pattern. Frosti Agosti goes for Ray Handal, who is frankly pathetic at getting horses to win. But, the horse has speed and this isn’t the strongest field. Gorelli rarely runs a bad one but hasn’t cracked the top spot yet. Perhaps today is the day.

Race 6.     6-7-5

Western Reserve has been gelded since his last start, and he definitely fits in this group. Last two on the turf showed a lot of promise. Offering Plan managed to close into a average pace in the Hollywood Derby. Looks to be the classiest in the race and his figures as a 3YO dominate this group. With some improvement he a major contender. Weekend Express is overlooked on the ML. He fits the conditions and his figures suggest he has some outs.

Race 7.     6-1-3

Carrumba hasn’t been worse than second lifetime and on figures deserves to be the favorite. Cavorting has run well in graded stakes, winning 50% of her races overall. Likes BEL and should be strong at the distance. Spelling Again is another that has shown ability in graded stakes and could be part of the combinations.

Race 8.     1-3-8

Recepta is a grade one mare that has done well at BEL. Mixed success on a softer turf, so demand value before investing. Ball Dancing is the Chad Brown entrant. Broke poorly in the Hillsborough but in 2015 was strong. Has a win at BEL and has shown well on a yielding turf. My Miss Sophia is a Grade 1 placed mare making her 2016 debut. Has run well fresh and can handle the soft going.

Race 9.     7-3-5

Unified just won the Bay Shore impressively and came back with a nice series of works. Is very well bred for the stretch out. Adventist tried the NY Derby prep series but wasn’t good enough to make the big race. Still, they weren’t bad races and he’s a contender here. GovernorMalibu just won the Tesio and has run well at BEL. Longshot chances here.

Race 10.  7-9-5

Kaigun never seems to run a bad one and beat competitor Wake Forest recently in the G2 Pan American. Top figures make this one a contender. Wake Forest has struggled to get a Grade 1 win but is solid Grade 2 horse. Really improved under Chad Brown’s care and may turn the tables on the top choice.  Go Around is better than his 10-1 ML would suggest. Actually has a good combination of speed and finish and likes to win.

Race 11.  5-8-11

Majestic Bloom improved when moved off the inner and back onto the turf. Hillaryinthehouse ran well first out of 2016 and is 4 of 6 in the money at BEL. Amazing Anne is another that looked good first out of the year and improvement might make her the winner. I’m

Race 1.     1-5-3

Jet Black has 5 of 6 in the money finishes and should be the main speed here. Needs to show more interest in leading the pack. Wine Not adds blinkers and is back at the route distance today. Hasn’t run a poor race yet. Cold Gone Hot has a tough task going a mile at first asking, but the workout pattern is positive and Rice is decent with first timers.

Race 2.     5-2-10

Afleet Martini jumps up a little in price from his last, but has been competitive with more expensive horses previously. Has the best last out figure. Japhir was claimed last out by DJ  who is not the machine he once was first after the claim. Last race was an improvement. Congrats Kid should be battling up front early. Was well thought of last year – has a MSW loss to Mohaymen – but has failed as the favorite regularly since then. Still, has the talent and gets a switch to Castellano. Too Wild to Repent takes the blinkers off today. Has shown some speed and actually has a couple of place finishes.

Race 3.     5-4-2

Beating Heart Baby failed to get out cleanly last time on the turf but prior to that was competitive in state-bred races. May not be value, but has outs. Fast Retailing is a big favorite on the ML. Didn’t run well in the Comely and raced poorly in a NW1X, but prior to that showed some talent. Perhaps overvalued, but has chances in this field. Pushme Pullyou raced decently last time on the wrong surface. Prior to that was third in a stakes, Has competitive figures.

Race 4.     10-7-5

Nice Try makes a big drop for Bill Mott whose horses generally need a few races. The switch to the turf was a positive for him. Big jump in numbers, and with continued improvement, should be a big factor today. Money Illusion was nominated for the TC, but didn’t make it to the track until February. Chad Brown moves him to the turf today and drops down to maiden claimers. Gets the nod based on Brown’s success with turf runners. Hurricane Ramiro improved a bunch when moved to the turf and continued improvement puts him in the mix.

Race 5.     11-6-8

Storm Pursuit drops in half from his last, and the last time he was at this level he looked good. Englehart may be looking to move him out of his stable, but he looks as good as anything. Attractive Ride was claimed last out by Michael Pino, who is 24% with new arrivals. Figures say he is a contender. Hector’s Pride is a high early speed horse dropping way down in price. Is a danger to wire this field.

Race 6.     4-11-2

Wicked Fun ran well when moved to the BEL turf last year. That figure as a 2YO is very competitive for this race. Javier Castellano takes the ride and that is a positive. Church Social broke poorly last out but showed interest and made up a lot of lengths to only finish four lengths out. Conquest Lucknlove has showed a lot of speed in her last two outs and has far and a away the best last race figure.

Race 7.     1-5-8

Sympathy barely missed last out for Chad Brown. Should be hard to keep out this time. Ice Festival tried the blinkers last time and ran well, but takes them back off today. Last year she was a consistent runner at better levels and should be respected today. Bel Citron goes second time with winners and gets a new rider in Irad Ortiz. Should be driving late in this race.

Race 8.     1-11-6

Uncharted Course has two wins, two seconds and a third in his last five races. Should be setting the fractions and figures say he should be around at the end. True Bet is another who should be forwardly placed and on his best day he’s in the mix. Swell improved when moved over to state-breds. Another speedy sort who fits this group well.

Race 9.     6-7-12

Aripeka won his last out in a field best time. Goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan who is a solid 28% with new charges. Midnight Notes finished fourth to the winner last out and seems to be in a consistent pattern of figures. Dream Man has a high in the money record, and has a win and a place in four tries at BEL. Looks better than his 10-1 ML.