Selections

Belmont May 18

I’m going to try something a little different for a while. In the last few days I’ve had a number of high priced horses that were one of my top of my three picks per race, including a $70 horse. I’ve long suggested that a major problem horseplayers have is that they can be too selection oriented. In other words, the highest probability horse is seen by some as THE winning horse or the horse to bet. I’ve consistently advised my followers to bet the overlay in the top three horses. I believe all of the three are contenders. Of course, the way I was giving out picks it was impossible to tell when I thought the top horse was a 4/5 shot and when I thought it was a 3-1 shot. I’m resolving that today. Now you will be able to tell whether I think the top choice is much the best or barely the choice. The odds I’m listing are the actual odds to win, meaning you decide when the horse reaches bettable odds. But as always, BET THE VALUE whether it is listed first, second, or third..

Race 1

  • 5 Swell   2-1
  • 1  Hey Bro  5/2
  • 2  Wheels Up Now.  3-1

Swell is 2 of 4 at BEL and in his last five races hasn’t been worse than second. Hey Bro battled at this level the last two races and missed by slim margins both times. Love the Danny Gargan angle. Expensive purchase Wheels Up Now broke his maiden in fine fashion last out and cuts back in distance. Should do well at the shorter distance.

Race 2

  • 4  McCorleot  4-1
  • 6  Asscher  3-1
  • 8  Special Risk 6-1
  • 11  Fiesta   2-1

McCorleot is an Uncle Mo who seems to be the hot, new sire. She sold for four times her sire fee, and has a workout pattern I really like – fast first work and some good subsequent works. Asscher is very well bred for this distance and has the top two year old trainer in Todd Pletcher. Workout pattern is pedestrian, but that is Pletcher’s usual MO. Special Risk goes for RuRod who is 23% with first time two YOs. Fiesta looks to be the better of the Pletcher horses and gets the favorite’s nod if she draws in.

Race 3

  • 4  Familyofroses   6/5
  • 5  Live Love Laugh 2-1
  • 2  Valkimqua  5/2

Familyofroses has only two wins in 24 starts, with 13 seconds and thirds. Has the best figures, although that’s been the case before. Live Love Laugh should be most of the early speed here and for that reason she has to be given a chance. Valkimqua has a tendency to finish in the money and could be used in the verticals here.

Race 4

  • 11  Pleasure Cruise  3-1
  • 5  Frostie Anne  7/2
  • 3  Freckle de Freck  5-1
  • 8 Irish Actor  6-1

Pleasure Cruise cuts back to six furlongs in her first race since last November. Returns at the same level she dropped to last year. Morrison is 2 for 9 with his returnees.  Frostie Anne drops out of MSW to the claiming level. Her one sprint on the turf she just missed. Freckle de Freck really improved first time on the turf and has a figure that should be competitive with this group. Irish Actor will have to come from off the pace. Does have a third over the BEL turf.

Race 5

  • 1/1A  Red Creme/Whateveryouwant  5/2
  • 5  Richie’s Rich  2-1
  • 8  Galardonado  4-1

The entry of Red Creme and Whateveryouwant looks strong. Red Creme is riding a two race win streak including one at BEL two weeks ago. Whateveryouwant was snatched by Jacobson when dropped to $20K and actually may be the better of the two runners. 9 of 12 in the money. Richie’s Rich is one of a group of speed horses that should be in the early scrum. Is riding a three race win streak, and drops down to a new low price. May go favorite, but the drop seems more negative than positive. Galardonado won for $25K and was claimed by Steve Asmussen out of that race. He jumped up to $50K on a muddy BEL track and ran creditably. Certainly not out of the question.

Race 6

  • 8  Ack Naughty  9/5
  • 6  Take It Inside 3-1
  • 7  Maura’s Pass  4-1
  • 1  Jc’s Shooting Star  5-1

Ack Naughty hasn’t been worse than second lifetime and has successfully come back off a layoff. Clearly the top figure horse. Take It Inside showed good speed in her return from the layoff and should be all the speed here. Cutback in distance won’t hurt. Maura’s Pass has two wins in five tries at BEL and is 1 for 1 at the distance. Makes his 2016 debut for Jason Servis who is 22% off the layoff. Jc’s Shooting Star has a first and two seconds in four tries on the turf. Definitely figures in this group.

Race 7

  • 3  Know It All Anna  3-1
  • 5  Nuffsaid Nuffsaid  7/2
  • 2 Scuba Sue  4-1

Know It All Anna already has a win at the meet and drops to the claiming ranks today. Perhaps a negative drop, but she has the best figures. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid won a stakes in the AQU mud last out for high percentage trainer Danny Gargan. Seems a little bit of an in-and-outer, but at her best is a prime contender. Scuba Sue has raced with better and on her best figures is right in the mix.

Race 8

  • 4  Happyness  8/5
  • 2 Queen’s Parade  5/2
  • 1  Season Ticket  5-1

Happyness won impressively first time in the U.S. and should only improve today.  Queen’s Parade ran a big one first out of 2016 at AQU. Seems to have some trouble cracking the win slot, but always runs competitively. Season Ticket has been with better and has an outside shot today.

Race 9

  • 5  Pegasus Storm  3-1
  • 1  Broken Border  4-1
  • 8  Flying K C  6-1

Pegasus Storm is the longshot play of the day. This race is not full of high quality runners, and this horse has some positives. First, she improved substantially when moved to the turf last out. Second, she gets a positive rider switch. Third, she’s cutting back distance. And finally she showed a little more interest overall last out. Broken Border has clearly the best turf numbers, but has had plenty of opportunity to win and seems unable to pass horses when it counts. If he wins, it wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m looking at the top choice for value. Flying K C is another that has had plenty of opportunity to win. Has shown some interest in finishing in the money, so I’ll give him potential in the verticals.