Juvenile Turf

1 Wet Sail – Has a good Timeform European rating. Has been improving each race. A few down sides though. He hasn’t been the distance, he’s been racing at lesser British tracks, and he has no Group races. He does get Jamie Spencer and that is a plus.

2 Daddy D T – Won the Oak Tree Juvenile coming from well off the pace. Tried pressing a little closer in the Front Runner and had no response in the stretch. He would be a surprise.

3 Luck of the Kitten – Four races, two wins and two place finishes. He has a race over the track and that is a plus, but he has the look of a horse that might need to improve some to beat this group.

4 Commemorative – has a Group 3 win at Newmarket at good odds. Has run well at the distance. He’s not without a chance here.

5 Hootenanny – Group 1 placed in France last out. Another that hasn’t been the distance, and although her race figure from the Prix Mornay is impressive, I always think it is hard to negotiate the turns for the first time. Perhaps the best of the Euro entries,

6 Conquest Typhoon – Won the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, although not in a particularly impressive time. However, the turf was yielding that day. He has a nice turn of speed and should establish  good position. I believe he is much better than his 12-1 ML suggests.

7 War Entry – Lots of seven furlong races but only one win in a seven race career. On the up side, he’s been in nothing but Group races since June, he gets Lasix for the first tiem, and is trained by the crafty Aidan O’Brien. On the down side, he’s had a rough campaign and hasn’t really had a training break since early this year. I think the trip from France to the West Coast has to take a lot of what he has left out of him.

8 Offering Plan – Chad Brown trainee broke his maiden in fine fashion at a mile and a sixteenth and ran respectably in the Grade 3 Pilgrim. In that race he was wide most of the way and didn’t have a lot left for the stretch. He’s well overlayed at 20-1 ML and I believe can be used.

9 Aktabantay – Criticized by the European experts for laziness, especially after finish sixth in his last race in France. He seems to have problems with focus, but I haven’t seen a note to put blinkers on. Does add first Lasix thought. He looks mildly interesting, and may be the best of the Euro runners.

10 Startup Nation – Another Chad Brown horse. He finished fourth in the Pilgrim after easily winning the With Anticipation. He shows a good stretch kick and can’t be discounted here.

11 Imperia – Winner of the Pilgrim and exactly the sort of horse you look for in this race. Lightly raced, maturing at the right time, and has a good style for this race. Very tempting if he goes off near his ML odds.

12 International Star – broke his maiden on the turf, ran a distant second in a NY state-bred stakes, the returned to the grass and finished second in the With Anticipation. A month ago he won the Grey Stakes on the synthetic at Woodbine. He is getting better with each race, and that is one of the things you look for in two year olds. Could surprise at a price.

13 Lawn Ranger – Best name in the race. He’s riding a two race winning streak, his last the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland. Has the character and the right style, but I don’t think he is quite at this level.

14 Danny Boy – Is maturing but I don’t think he’s quite there yet.

Of the North Americans, Luck of the Kitten is the best locally based horse, Conquest Typhoon has a lot of tactical speed and goes for the very good Casse/Husbands combination, and Offering Plan and Startup Nation have a lot of upside and one of the best trainers around. All things considered, Kieran McLaughlin’s Imperia looks best of the North American runners.

Of the Europeans, Hootenany looks to be the best, but Commemorative and Aktabantay have reasonable possibilities.

 

Dirt Mile

The contenders are Goldencents, Carve, Pants on Fire, Bronzo, Fed Biz and Tapiture.

Goldencents, the defending champion, rarely runs a bad race and has already proven he likes the new Santa Anita dirt, missing by a desperate nose in the SA Sprint Championship to Rich Tapestry at six furlongs. Goldencents is usually thought of as a horse that prefers races between seven furlongs and a mile, and he has two wins and two seconds at eight furlongs. It is a little disconcerting that he had a clear lead in the stretch but was outfinished by Rich Tapestry, although to be fair, once he caught Rich Tapestry’s figure he did seem to dig in a little more and almost came back to nab the win. He’s only had one race at a mile this year, finishing second to a very talented (at the time) Palace Malice. On the up side, he has been working lights out over the SA dirt. As far as I am concerned, he is the king until someone dethrones him and while 6-5 might be a little enthusiastic, it’s hard to imagine he isn’t going to be in the mix at the end.

Carve is the interesting horse in this race. He’s not as fast as Goldencents – who is – but he’s quietly had a nice season with four wins in eight starts. He’s superbly bred for a mile, and although he’s not beaten a field of this quality, I’ll give him a shot to make the exacta or trifecta.

Pants On Fire is a hard-knocking six year-old for trainer Kelly Breen. He went in this race last year and was really decimated by the better horses. Still, he’s about as good as he’s going to get, coming off a win in a stakes at Charles Town. He gives a good effort every time, and although he doesn’t have the ability of Goldencents, a minor piece is not out of the question.

Bronzo is the X-factor here. The Chilean-bred is by Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, and has run some very good times in South America. Will that translate to North America? Is he as good as the American runners? I don’t have a definitive answer, but I am willing to risk a few saver tickets just in case.

Fed Biz shapes up as the main competition to Goldencents for the win. He was beaten soundly by the champion in the seven furlong Pat O’Brien on the synthetic track at Del Mar. He’s improved a lot as a five year old, and finishing second to the favorite in the Classic is good for a horse’s resume. He’s three of six at the distance, and looks like he’s coming to the race at the top of his game. Of course he’s not going to have a stablemate to bother Goldencents so he’s going to have to do it on his own.

Tapiture – Second to Bayern in Pennsylvania Derby and winner of the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer. He’s only had one race at a mile – a maiden affair at Churchill in which he finished second – so this is going to be a bit of a guessing game. He’s a Tapit, which means he should enjoy the distance. He’s been at Santa Anita for a month, and should be well acclimated. What I don’t really like? He hasn’t raced again this quality of older horse. You have to decide how much of a risk it will be to count on Rosie Napravnik to keep him out of trouble and rolling in the stretch, or even if he is good enough to be competitive here.

You can’t bet against Goldencents and at his likely probable odds he won’t be much value. He’s clearly the best horse on paper, but there are a few who won’t be ready to concede the coronation, including Fed Biz and Tapiture. There are a couple of price horses, including Carve and Bronzo, that could make for a nice paying exacta.

 

Distaff

The contenders are Iotapa, Ria Antonia, Untapable and Close Hatches.

Iotapa has run nothing but graded races this year, and in seven starts has three wins, three seconds, and a third. She ran a monstrous race in the Vanity and came back with a nice win on the Del Mar synthetic in the Clement Hirsch. Her race in the Zenyatta was troubled. When she missed the break she was forced to park on the rail behind horses. Beholder, winner of the race was wide down the backstretch and made the winning move around the turn. Iotapa was not really boxed in, but by the time she was clear enough to make a move, Tiz Midnight  had bounded away and Beholder had full momentum. The problem in this race is twofold for Iotapa. First, Tiz Midnight is just to Iotapa’s inside and there is no reason to expect Tiz Midnight won’t try to run the same race as she did in the Zenyatta. Second, Close Hatches will be looking to run to the front from the far outside, and Close Hatches is a far better horse than Tiz Midnight. For Iotapa to win, she’ll have to relax and let the other two horses beat themselves up. It’s a big chore.

Don’t Tell Sophia won the Spinster at Keeneland last out, coming from last to easily win the race. She likes the distance – she’s two for three – and she looks to be in great shape. She may not be better than Untapable or Close Hatches, but if she gets a pace setup she might run by them all.

Untapable is the best three year old filly in training. Other than a debacle in Haskell, she’s done absolutely nothing wrong this year. She has a perfect running style for the race. There are two negatives. First, she hasn’t raced against the likes of Iotapa and Close Hatches. Second, she’s only been in races with three year olds and I’d have liked to have seen a race against older. Still, she’ll be the favorite and off her best race she looks like a winner.

Close Hatches is listed as the ML second choice and she may be up against it from the 11 post. She lost the Spinster last out at 1-5 when she was challenged by Rio Antonia. Not only is she likely to get challenged up front, but she’ll have to do her running outside of horses. In fairness, she is four out of five this year against Grade 1 competition, but given he fade last race and the probably hot pace in this one, I think she is a vulnerable favorite.

Untapable looks like the best horse in the field. She’ll be in the A position coming into the stretch and should have first run at the pacesetters. Don’t Tell Sophia has a good closing kick and used it powerfully in the Spinster. Between Iotapa and Close Hatches, it’s not unreasonable to expect one of them to hang on for a piece.