Last day for BEL. I’ll be publishing my Breeder’s Cup analysis on Thursday. Good luck to everyone today. Looks like a lot of competitive races which means there should be plenty of value. The turf is still listed as good three days after the rain.

Race 1

Another race where I had to work hard to whittle the contenders down. 1,2,3,7,8,9,10 and 11 all got some consideration. This is a race full of positives and negatives on most of the horses. I’ll admit I spent a lot of time on the race and still couldn’t come up with anything definitive.

• 9 Summation Time – Clement trainee ran a nice race in his MSW debut at MTH, then laid off for a month and a half and returned in a $65K MCL at SAR. In both of those races he had issues, being steadied at the start in his first and was rank throughout in his second. I suspect he was off since the middle of August to deal with the behavior issues. He’s got the best pace figures in the field and drops down to $40K MCL in search of a win. The negative – why do you drop a $250K 2 year old purchase to $40k? Since nobody took the horse last out for $65 perhaps Clement figures he’s safe at this level. It definitely keeps me from getting overexcited about the horse. I like that Irad stays, especially since he is fighting for the BEL jockey title. He’s a lot like Big Lute was for me yesterday – if he runs his race he’ll be hard to beat. But he’s no cinch.
• 3 Road to Rockport – started poorly on a sloppy track but showed some interest. Adds blinkers today and I think Jimmy Jerkens is past his cool streak. Not well bred for the turf, but as I’ve noted at 6F turf breeding is secondary to natural speed. If the two Clement runners flop he is the likely beneficiary. I’d think twice before leaving him out of your pick 3/5
• 8 Artie Crasher – has a great series of workouts but I have to wonder why Cannizzo is starting the horse at $40K. If he runs to the promise he’s shown in the morning he could be a factor.
• 1 Tree Fire – listed at 20-1 on the ML, and he might be higher at post time. Has three races on the turf and in two of them he finished within two lengths of the winner. He cuts back in distance to 6F from a mile and a sixteenth and adds blinkers. Two big negatives – a 1 for 44 trainer and a 1 for 7 jockey. Of course that mostly explains why he is 20-1 ML.
• 10 Smoke Police hasn’t been on the turf yet but he is decently bred for the turf and Chad Brown is a first rate turf trainer. 14 Gu Gu Beans is a money burner that you can use in the back holes in exotics.

Race 2

• 3 Red Guard – Bernardini is not known as a turf sire, but this horse went ridiculously wide in his last and still managed to close furiously in the stretch, losing it all by 2 1/2. I have no idea why Lezcano chose to manage the horse that way, and I would hope he runs a better tactical race today.
• 1 Zennor – has not been on the turf but has a lot of speed and adds Lasix for today’s race. If he takes to the lawn he should be a big factor.
• 5 Tweet Kitten – Chad Brown firster is very well bred for a mile on the turf. Usual set of steady works for the debut. I think he’s the better of the two Brown runners (6 Takeover Target being the other) but we’ll find out today.
• 7 Escondido – runs for Pletcher and Velasquez, a deadly combination for years. Ran a very nice race second out at BEL and despite not having sterling turf breeding, he seems to have taken to it. Perhaps he is more of a pressing router than a sprinter, but today we’ll find out.

Race 3

• 5 Savvy Sassy – demolished a field in the mud a month ago and has thrown in a sharp workout 5 days ago. Will be a big favorite and probably deservedly so. If she runs a similar race she will be hard to beat.
• 1 Dear Mama – nobody was going to beat Princess Violet last race. She had plenty of early foot and today adds blinkers in an effort to focus that speed. Really looks like the only competition to the 5.
• 7 Storm Swept – was off a year and came out in the Princess Violet race where she had no chance. She may improve today but I don’t think that will be enough to turn the tables on the 1.

Race 4

• 1 True Romance – came about as close as you can to winning his debut. Cuts back half a furlong. Has a big figure advantage.
• 4 Royale Rose – Ran behind likely 3rd race favorite Savvy Sassy in the mud last time and looks second best here.
• 2 Loving Lorri – wasn’t far behind Royale Rose in the Savvy Sassy race and probably winds up in the same place today.

Race 5

• 10 Vision Perfect – ran second in the Grade 3 Pilgrim and cuts back a sixteenth of a mile to the distance at which he broke his maiden. That being said, his figures are not well superior to others in the race, but on paper he certainly looks like the pacesetter and the one to catch.
• 5 Zandar – broke his maiden at 7F and it looks like the longer the race the more he’ll like it. His figure is competitive  with the two mentioned above and he will be better odds.
• 3 A Lot – Mott trainee ran a strong race after hitting the gate and going wide into the stretch. Another that will improve at the distance.  I want to be clear that I think these four runners are close to each other and the race will be decided by pace and position.
• 2 One Eyed Ray – broke his maiden on the turf at BEL, then shipped to Laurel for a stakes where he finished second. He’s fairly close with regard to figures and two year olds can improve by leaps with each start. Like that he seems to be getting better.

Race 6

• 7 Shankopotomus – Very ambiguous choice. On his best race he is the fastest horse in here. In his last race he pulled up and walked off. He was claimed by Sciacca who gave him two works in late September before shutting him down. Not hard to guess something is not right with the horse. Let’s be realistic – horses racing at the bottom claiming level are invariably there because of physical issues, but if he runs his best he’s a big contender.
• 1/1a B Shanny/Love to Run – these horses have a lot going for them. Jacobson seems to be winning with about everything he throws on the track. Both have recently been with far superior animals. Finally, the pace figures are only slightly behind Shankopotomus. Are the main inheritors if 7 falters. If there is a scratch Love to Run is the better of the two.
• 8 Tummel – lost all chance at the break last out but before that was very competitive with these sorts. Like the numbers and like his proclivity to run competitively. Big shot to be part of the exotics.
• 3X  Summit County – Englehart scratched what I thought was the stronger part of the entry and I like the angle where where the leaves weaker of the two. Plus, his figures are fairly competitive.

Race 7

Nobody looks totally chanceless in this race. There are a lot of horses struggling to find good form but there is quite a mixture of surface and distance changes and class changes.

• 8 Rumble Doll – has won two of her last three including a trip over the yielding turf at today’s distance. I’m not thrilled about the plodding style, but she has really taken to the turf and she has a good win percentage. At 12-1 ML how can I pass.
• 5 Jet Majesty – broke her maiden on the turf, then wound up on two off dirt tracks. Has a lot of speed but will have to contend with Nicole’s Miss El on the front end. I don’t think she is a need to lead type and should have the first run in the stretch.
• 2 Neck of the Moon – Brown/Ortiz combo about as good as it gets. Only has three starts this year, and in her last really had no shot after trouble at the start and getting shuffled on the turn. Has plenty of outs today.
• 9 Lady’s Lunar  Luck – 0 for 6 this year, but has been competitive and has been with much better recently enough that it still shows in her pp’s. Should like the cutback to 7F and the drop to statebred OC. If she finds her stride today she is dangerous.

Race 8

• 4 Energy Spirit – Broke his maiden in fine fashion a month ago for Pletcher despite an awkward start. Moves to the next condition.
• 6 Adirondack Dancer – hasn’t won this year but has been competitive in all his races. Has the talent and I’ll give him one more chance.
• 9 Ironicus – only has three starts which gives the horse a lot of up side. Don’t really care for the plodding style, but is likely to be coming in the stretch. Just have to hope the pace is to his advantage. McGaughey is 15% with the long layoff and he and Roasario have had some nice success this year.
• 12 Ocala Jim – maybe a bit up against it from the outside post but loves the distance and definitely fits the class level. No surprise if he succeeds here.

Race 9     Turn Back The Alarm     Grade 3     6-1-2-7

• 1 Tapit’s World – Has been racing with Grade 3 horses at CD, DEL and ELP.  Moves to the Michelle Nevin barn for today’s run. Is 2 for 4 at the distance, but hasn’t been on the BEL dirt. I think you have to give her serious consideration.
• 2 Dame Dorothy – 3 for 3 for Pletcher, the last a restricted stakes at Presque Isle. Doesn’t seem to care what the surface is, she just runs. Until she does something wrong, deserves support.
• 3 Moment in Dixie – takes the blinkers off, but I’m not sure that will help.  No wins this year but a couple of close finishes. Minor award at best.
• 4 Flores Island – has a win on the BEL dirt. Won her last over a sloppy track at at GP in her first race in 6 months. I think she’s better than the 20-1 ML although I don’t think she is a likely winner.
• 5 Teen Pauline – speedster has won her last three for Pletcher, including the Grade 2 Top Flight. Unfortunately that race was almost 7 months ago. 2 for 2 at the distance but 0 for 2 on the BEL dirt. I’m banking on the fact that early speed has not held up well in dirt routes and looking elsewhere for the win.
• 6 Endless Chatter – third place finisher in the Beldame but before that won three in a row. Chad Brown trainee has the right style , likes the distance and is ok at BEL.
• 7 Toasting – mainly been running in graded events, although her two wins this year came in a restricted stakes and an allowance. Was actually only a length and a half out of third in the Beldame. I think she’ll appreciate the cutback in distance.
• 8 Catch My Drift – three wins in four starts. Only loss was in the Grade 1 Alabama and she didn’t run badly in that race. The other Chad Brown trainee gets Johnny V to ride. Tough not to like a little, but looks like she may be a cut below the best in here.

Race 10

• 2 Blistering Strike – let’s finish it up with a bomb. She’s 20- 1 on the ML. Only has 6 starts, one sprint win. This race appears to be full of speed so I’m playing the race to look a little more at the closers. She drops from a $50K NW3 to a $25K NW2. Really looks about as good as any.
• 9 Perfect Step – hasn’t raced in two years and will be making her U.S. debut. If she runs like her three year old season, she might win for fun. Have to respect Chad Brown’s ability to get horses ready. There are enough question marks that I couldn’t put her on top. One of those single or toss out horses
• 12 William’sluckygray – One of the speedsters in the race. Will have to gun from the outside post. I’m counting on the cut back to 6F to only help her out, but a killing pace could compromise her chances.
• 1 Saratoga Karaoke – has been knocking around at $40K NW2 and drops a level. Finished in from of the 12 last out and has a good chance to catch a piece.