Second to last day at BEL. I’ll do today and tomorrow, but then it’s all Breeder’s Cup all the time,

Race 1

• 5 Big Lute – interesting horse. Off his best he demolishes this field. Was claimed by Jacobson for $40K in a race where he pulled up. He wasn’t vanned off, a good thing, but he’s been vacationing for four months. Before that he was racing competitively with higher quality animals. The drop to $16K is concerning, but perhaps the potential claiming trainers will see the drop negative enough to avoid putting in a claim.
• 3 Artemus Paperboy – Broke his maiden two back on a muddy track and has been competitive around this level since then. Doesn’t approach Big Lute’s numbers but is a clear second best on the numbers.
• 4 Stalagmite – claimed by Englehart two back and was jumped up to a $50K starter allowance, and then  to a NW1X on a muddy track which he obviously didn’t prefer. If the track is realtively dry he improves enough to be a factor.

Race 2

This race is a competitive affair and I initially considered 6 horses for the win slot.

• 9 Greywalls – Didn’t run well first out on a sloppy track, came back on the grass and ran a much improved race, and then actually set the pace in the Miss Grillo. She has the necessary experience and this is an easier spot by far than the Miss Grillo.
• 5 Consumer Credit – Ran into trouble in the lane her first out on the turf, then ran a nice race on a sloppy track. Back on the turf today and should be prepped for her best.
• 1 Neilinger – was not at her best on a sloppy track last out, but before that was well enough regarded to start in a stakes race at MTH. Back on the turf today and an improved performance is likely.
• 8 Twist’n Bake – ran a very nice tracking race first out for George Weaver. Weaver has been cool most of the BEL meet, but is still a quality conditioner. Has nice tactical speed and should be in a good spot coming into the stretch.

Race 3     The Bold Ruler     Grade 3     6-4-2-1

• 1 Confrontation – Was outmatched in the Forego but prior to that was running some nice figures with optional claimers. Has been freshened for almost two months . Likes BEL and is 1 for 2 at the distance.
• 2 Romansh – Nothing but graded races this year and clearly he’s a cut below Grade 1 or 2. Only has one race at 7F and didn’t finish in the money. Could be the X factor in this race considering he’s with easier.
• 3 Sage Valley- Rudy Rodriquez trainee hasn’t shown ability against this type in 2014 and could be up against it in this field.
• 4 Salutos Amigos – ran respectably in the Grade 1 Vosburgh, the True North and the Belmont Sprint. Jacobson has been having an exceptional fall meeting and this horse has as good a chance as any to take the race.
• 5 Joe Tess – has had a respectable 2014 and on his best day he would be competitive. Just don’t think today is that day.
• 6 River Rocks – Early speed type just missed in the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile and cuts back to 7F today. Definitely improved from his 3 year old to 4 year old season but 7F is about his limit. Still, he’s two for three at the distance and will have to be caught to be defeated.
• 7 Cease – Ambitious placing for Jason Servis. No wins for the horse in 2014 , but his last was his best in a while. Wouldn’t be a complete shock, but one of the less likely horses.

Race 4

Update: The race is now off the turf. 16 Demo scratches in and would be in the mix

• 5 A Marked Man – drops in for a price for Linda Rice. Was a little short routing last out and should benefit from the cutback to 7F
• 9 Luv Dakota Skye – was off a year and needed his last. Another one dropping from MSW to claimers. There are a lot of horses clustered around the same number and he’s one of them.
• 3 Spa City Treasure – five starts and three seconds. Faded slightly in the stretch at 7F last out, but she should benefit from that race.
• 6 Domer – Despite the horrible looking race last out, Clement is pretty effective dirt to turf. That first race was completely troubled, and the drop from MSW to claimers should be helpful. Could be any kind.

Race 5

This race is another ultra-competitive affair. I looked at seven horses and believe me it wasn’t easy settling on four.

• 9 With Expression – Good at the distance and likes the BEL turf. Raced on the yielding turf last out and showed a little bit more of a pressing style. Some other speed to contend with so it will be all about pace and position.
• 10 Frogman Mel – took a two and a half month hiatus and came back at 7F. Ran a useful race and should improve some today. He’s at the right claiming price.
• 12 Coexist – was off 7 months and came back with a nice race on the yielding turf at BEL. That race should tighten him. Has a nice figure but has to overcome a tendency to finish in the money instead of winning.
• 1 Permanent Campaign – was in against much better at SAR and perhaps the yielding turf at BEL was not to his liking. He’s in the right spot today.

Race 6

Another competitive affair. Anyone that says otherwise must have a better crystal ball than I do.

• 10 Blue Pigeon – has been looking to break through at this level all year. Obviously as good as any horse in the race but needs to find a way to pass them all in the stretch.
• 8 Bajan Summer – I speak Spanish decently, and I would pronounce the name BAA-han. Don’t ask me why I care if Imbriale says BAY-jan but it just strikes me as funny. What is a BAY-jan anyway? That being said, he’s another that has been trying to crack the winning code this year. He’s got the same plusses and minuses as a number in here and if he is hooked up with one of the other horses looking for a second win, it will be interesting to see which one prevails.
• 2 Macgone – Nipped Blue Pigeon last out and should be fighting again in the stretch. Castellano stays and that is a positive.
• 3 Oklahoma Den – a bit of a stretch but already has a second win, albeit against lesser. Seems to be a little more of a distance horse, but has potential to finish in the money.

Race 7

• 10 Street Jersey – nice series of works since finishing third as the favorite last race. I always downgrade a 2 year old coming from the rail, mainly because it can be intimidating to have 10 horses storming to your outside. Breaking from the 10 post is preferable as long as he breaks and gets a decent striking position.
• 9 Classy Class – first timer for McLaughlin has a nice series of breezes, last one from the gate. Irad climbs aboard looking for a jockey title. Looks like all systems are go.
• 7 Unbridled Hero – Kimmel is 5 for 25 first time out and Unbridled’s progeny have been fair in their two year old season. Kimmel and Alvarado have been 29% at BEL.
• 3 Because I’m Happy – had a wide trip in the mud last out and almost ran by everyone except the winner. Wouldn’t have to improve much to contend for the win.

Race 8     The Chelsea Flower   6-2-4-1

• 1 My Cara Mia – broke slowly and was wide in the Miss Grillo and not a factor. Her first race was strong and she adds Lasix today.
• 2 Skinner Box – Ran a nice one in the Natalma, and that is usually a strong race for 2 year old turf fillies. She had some trouble at the start  in the Miss Grillo, but with a better break today I’m looking for her to be one of the horses battling to the wire.
• 3 Phoenix Park – Puts blinkers on and tries the turf for the first time. Despite running in some nice Grade 2 races, hasn’t really shown she can compete with this type, much less on the turf.
• 4 Margaret Reay – Ran lights out in the Miss Grillo at 50-1 but is still a maiden. Still, she’s run good enough to win against some good horses and has a big chance today.
• 5 Quick Reward – just doesn’t look good enough to crack the board in this field.
• 6 Miss Chatelaine – Very nice maiden win for Clement. With Maragh on the sidelines, a hot Joel Rosario gets the mount. Has a big task today, but I’m betting he’s up to it.
• 7 Majestic Bloom – Foundered in a minor stakes at Laurel and doesn’t look good enough to win here.
• 8 Amazing Anne – Has some nice breeding and won a state-bred maiden race comfortably but doesn’t look fast enough to threaten this field.
• 9 Path – Would not be a surprise. Has a nice number but I’ve got others ahead of her.

Race 9

• 4 Leroy Jr. – Last two on the turf were ok, but his maiden win at AQU was exceptional. Back on the dirt today. He’s five years old and obviously has some physical issues, but he couldn’t have a better trainer than Chad Brown. If he runs to last year’s dirt race he wins for fun.
• 12 Giantinthemoonlight – Nice maiden win in May at BEL and ran second to Cuantos last out. May get caught behind another monster runner today, but if Leroy doesn’t put in a good run, this one has the next best shot.
• 2 Seal Team Four – was claimed last out by Dutrow and he ambitiously brings him back in a NW1X. Has better prospects than you might initially think.
• 6 Groupthink – five seconds in eight starts makes him a good prospect to get a piece, no so much for the win.

Race 10

• 10 Classic Aussie – two thirds in two starts, one on the inner turf, one on an off the turf affair, one at a mile, one at 6F. Today is 7f on the Widener turf and it sounds like a good combination.
• 8 Miss Matzoball – switched to the turf last out and ran a good one. Bred to sprint and has the best figure of any in here.
• 5 Forma’s Joy – Ran a nice five and a half furlong race on the turf at SAR first out and then went to FL for a state-bred stakes on the dirt. Didn’t much take to that surface so we’ll look for the return to turf as something that will bring out the best in her.
• 4 Not Now Joanie – first timer for George Weaver. Has been working regularly and gets the high percentage jockey Rosario. At 10-1 worth considering.