With Untapable looking like a a very short-priced single in the fourth race, the question is whether we can come up with some price horses in the other three events to make the investment worthwhile.
The second race is a bottom level maiden claiming dirt sprint where five of the nine runners are NY breds and there are two first timers. I feel fairly confident pitching Naughty Matilda, Chichita, and Desert Valentine.
#9 Tordita is almost certainly going to be the post-time favorite. She seems more suited to the dirt than turf or synthetic, the combination of trainer Bruce Brown and jockey Javier Castellano is hitting at a 30% rate, and her figures are tops in this field.
#7 Moon Map has done her best running on a fast dirt track, and has figures slightly below Tordita. She should be one of the runners coming at the end.
#1 Discreet Malena is the interesting horse. I don’t think she’ll go off at 10-1, but she does seem to be racing into shape. She had two total clunkers on the turf in 2013, but came out on the dirt in 2014, showed some front in her first start and held her speed well in her next start, beating #2 Hot On Ice in the process. If she’s rounding into the top of her form she may just wire this cheap field.
“A” Horse – #9 Tordita
“B” Horses – #1 Discreet Malena, #7 Moon Map
“C” Horses – #2 Not On Ice, #5 Home to Carrowkeel, #6 Untiltherewasyou
The third race is one of those open $40,000 claiming toughies at 6 furlongs on the turf. Eight runners are scheduled to start, and I’m not sure anyone is completely outless. #1 Chelsea Road is listed as the 2-1 favorite, but I’m going to give the nod to #4 Harbingerofthings. The 5YO mare is well suited to the turf and in 2013 was a steady earner with 6 of 11 in the money. Her last two races showed approaching condition, even though she was racing on a muddy Pimlico surface and the synthetic at Presque Isle. I think today she is back on form and I’m expecting Michael Trombetta to have her wound up and ready to run.
There is not a lot of pure speed in the race. #2 Kilknockagain and #3 Starship Gambler will probably inherit the front, with the rest of the field following in close order. It should be a wild finish and I’d just be guessing if I offered a cold trifecta.
“A” Horse – #4 Harbinger of Things
“B” Horses – #2 Kilknockagain, #1 Chelsea Road
“C” Horses – the remainder of the field
The last leg of the early Pick-4 is a $40,000 Maiden Claiming event for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. It is another mess of a race, and a case can be made for a number of runners. #5 Winner’s Legacy is listed as the morning line favorite. She has the past performance of a horse with physical issues, and her last three races appear uninspiring at best. I’m going elsewhere for this race.
In this sort of race I look for horses that have a small number of starts and something positive going for them. The closest prospect is the #1 Acrostic. In May 2013 Acrostic gave a bang-up effort in a $65K maiden claimer, and then spent a year on the sidelines. She returned a month ago in a six furlong sprint, breaking slowly but making an encouraging five-wide move around the turn and finishing with decent energy. Acrostic’s chances may depend on the break, but if she establishes a good tracking spot going into the first turn, she has every right to wind up a winner.
#2 Lifeguard on Duty also has the pattern, although she seems a step behind Acrostic. She ran a good race in her last run of 2013 at Laurel, and Anthony Dutrow is a high percentage trainer who does well with horses coming off long layoffs.
#8 Shaikha and #4 Kevin’s Kool Kat both have the look of professional maidens. Too many starts, and a high percentage of second place finishes, although Shaikha clearly has the best numbers of the field.
None of the remaining runners has much to recommend.
“A” Horses – #1 Acrostic, #2 Lifeguard on Duty
“B” Horse – # 8 Sheikha
“C” Horses – #5 Winner’s Legacy, #4 Kevin’s Kool Kat