Selections

Belmont June 10

Race 1

  • 7  The Big Fundamental
  • 1  Vincento
  • 4  Battle Midway
  • Secondary (3, 5)

Race 2 – The Easy Goer

  • 5  Local Hero
  • 7  West Coast
  • 8  You’re to Blame
  • Secondary (3, 9)
  • Local Hero was probably not ready for the graded 3YO stakes earlier this year, but made a nice improvement in his last race and may have been more of a factor had he not been forced to check.  Asmussen should have him wound nicely for this start. West Coast has not run a bad race yet, and has proven he can ship. You’re to Blame will be running to pick up the pieces if the race breaks down.

Race 3 – The Brooklyn Invitational

  • 5  Tu Brutus
  • 6  Doyouknowsomething
  • 4  Send it In
  • Secondary (1, 7)
  • This edition of the Brooklyn is not filled with obvious mile and a half horses. Tu Brutus looks to have the closest thing to decent distance breeding, and destroyed a field at an eighth of a mile less last out. His two American starts have shown enough talent to earn the win here. Doyouknowsomething has looked a little more competitive with the stretch-out in distance and at 15-1 is worth a second look. Send it In hasn’t finished worse than third since 2015.

Race 4 – The Acorn

  • 5  Benner Island
  • 7  Sweet Loretta
  • 3  Abel Tasman
  • Secondary (8, 1)
  • Benner Island looks perfectly placed at the one turn mile and comes off a big run in the 8 Belles. Should go off at good value. Sweet Loretta ran well in her 2017 debut after ending last year on a sour note by stumbling in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Very well bred for the mile distance. Abel Tasman was an impressive winner of the Kentucky Oaks. The only question is whether her closing style will be effective here.

Race 5 – The Ogden Phipps

  • 5  Songbird
  • 6  Bar of Gold
  • 1  Highway Star
  • Secondary (4, 7)
  • Not a lot of analysis here. If the Songbird of 2016 shows up the race is moot. I’ll use her with longer prices Bar of Gold and Highway Star.

Race 6 – The Jaipur

  • 3  Pure Sensation
  • 8  Canadian Flyer
  • 2  Disco Partner
  • Secondary (4, 1, 10)
  • Pure Sensation ran well in the BC Turf Sprint before laying up for the winter. He came back and ran a decent race to Green Mask at the very short 5F distance in his 2017 debut, and he should be in better shape and at a better distance today. Canadian Flyer looks like another horse that may prefer the 6F distance of this race, and given a couple of so-so races in his last two should be a long price. Disco Partner came out with a strong win in the Elusive Quality and certainly fits with this group. I wouldn’t underestimate the secondary horses, Loose on the Town, Green Mask, and Stormy Liberal.

Race 7 – The Woody Stephens

  • 7  Wild Shot
  • 11  Petrov
  • 10  Long Haul Bay
  • 8  American Anthem
  • Secondary (2, 3, 4)
  • In this very competitive race I went with Wild Shot who powered to a convincing win in the Pat Day. He should be perfect at the 7F distance, he’s had a good foundation this year, and on the improve. Petrov has good sprint breeding and has good pace figures. Long Haul Bay was an impressive winner of the Bay Shore and has a very nice workout pattern for his return. American Anthem ships in for Baffert and looks like a serious contender at the sprint distance.

Race 8 – The Just A Game

  • 2  Roca Rojo
  • 1  Dickinson
  • 4  Harmonize
  • Secondary (5, 6, 7)
  • In another competitive affair, while I looked for something that I could put ahead of the favorite, but in the end Roco Roja is the pick. She’s 6 of 8 in the win column, 3 of 3 over the BEL turf, and 3 of 5 at the distance. Her pace figures don’t have her far ahead of some others, but her consistency puts her on top. Dickinson should be a close second choice having won 5  of her last 6, including a strong win in the Jenny Wiley last out. Harmonize didn’t show much last out at CD, but before that she was consistently competitive. Rider switch to Johnny V might help.

Race 9 – The Metropolitan

  • 5  Sharp Azteca
  • 12  Awesome Slew
  • 2  Rally Cry
  • Secondary (9, 11)
  • In this renewal of the Met Mile Sharp Azteca gets the nod. He’s one of the top milers and showed his credentials with a third in the Godolphin Mile. Prior to that he was competitive in two graded stakes in a row, winning the Hardacre Mile GP Handicap, and running second in the G1 Malibu. Awesome Slew may prefer a little bit more distance than this mile, but he closed well at 7F to finish second at CD in his last out. Has the talent. Rally Cry steps up for Pletcher after running creditably in a couple of allowance races. May be a little ambitious, but he looks to be in top shape.

Race 10 – The Manhattan

  • 4  Time Test
  • 2  Wake Forest
  • 9  Sadler’s Joy
  • Secondary (1, 3, 6, 7)
  • The Manhattan is always one of my favorite races, usually bringing together a group of top turf horses. Time Test shipped over from GB and missed winning the Fort Marcy by the slimmest of margins. He’s a group winner in Europe and always seems to run the same high number. Talented and consistent. Wake Forest is the second of the three Chad Brown runners. He apparently didn’t care for the yielding track but prior to that he showed plenty of talent in Graded events. Sadler’s Joy was another one that may have given slightly less than his best on a yielding track in the Man o’ War. He looks to be in good form heading into this race and at 6-1 is worth a look.

Race 11 – The Belmont Stakes

  • 7  Irish War Cry
  • 3  Gormley
  • 4  J Boys Echo
  • 6  Lookin at Lee
  • 10  Multiplier
  • 2  Tapwrit
  • If you have any money left by this race, it could be a good betting event. First, no horse really sticks out in this field. Second, no horse is particularly well bred for the mile and a half. I’ll admit I was a fan of Irish War Cry in the Derby, and he didn’t get a winning trip in that race, but given the field, he should compete better. Irish War Cry is by Curlin, who should give him some bottom, although his dam side seems to say sprint. I like his running style for this event – generally horses that can stay near the pace have an advantage. He’s got two superior races in the Wood and the Holy Bull, both graded events. I wouldn’t bet the house on him, especially at the likely odds, but I am looking for vindication.  Gormley is listed at 8-1, and if the field was a little better he might easily be double digits. I have a feeling he won’t be that low at post time, although he seems to be a bit of a wiseguy horse. He’s a Grade 1 winner, and he really was one of the horses who got the worst of it in the Derby. His distance breeding isn’t particularly strong but he does have the right running style for the race. Intriguing. J Boys Echo is 15-1 on the ML and could be the best value in the race. His distance breeding is not bad – A.P. Indy is his grandsire – and you can pretty much toss his Derby effort. His Gotham win gives him the field best figure, and he should be cruising just behind the leading pack with an opportunity to be in a good position for the stretch run. I’ll seriously consider win money if he stays at those odds. Make no mistake – Lookin at Lee has some talent, but his running style is just not well suited to the Belmont. He got a very fortunate trip in the Derby and ran ok in the Preakness, but given the overall quality of the field, it’s hard to discount him too much.  Multiplier is another interesting horse at long odds. He won the Illinois Derby, but didn’t show particularly well in the Preakness. I’m a bit ambiguous about the equipment change – blinkers go on – but I can see him in a backhole. Tapwrit gets thrown into the mix as a potential backholer, but I’d be surprised if he could get to the line first. If he stays at his 6-1 ML odds I might not even use him in the backholes.

Race 12

  • 1/1A  Ray’s the Bar/Shalako
  • 7  Conquest Sandman
  • 11  Hello Don Julio
  • 10  Arcature
  • Secondary (3)

Race 13

  • 10  Realm
  • 5  River Echo
  • 1/1A  Ostrolenka/Top Fortitude
  • Secondary (3, 6, 7, 9)