Last time the Cup was help at SA I was there. I can attest it is a very comfortable place to hold the Championships and they do a great job. Let’s get started with the races.

The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

1. LANCASTER BOMBER is one of the Aidan O’Brien shippers. On the plus side, while he has three consecutive losses in Group races, they were to the highly regarded Churchill. His last race figure was by far his lifetime top. On the down side, he hasn’t been around two turns and he’s being asked to go farther than he’s ever been. While he has shown speed in his Euro races, he’s going to have to gun out of the gate and may get hard used early. One of the mid-level contenders.
2. KEEP QUIET is trained by top conditioner Mark Casse. He won the G3 Bourbon last out and finished second in the G2 With Anticipation. His numbers have been improving and he is a contender here.
3. CHANNEL MARKER doesn’t look like a contender in here.
4. FAVORABLE OUTCOME is an interesting horse. He is trained by the very capable Chad Brown, a noted turf trainer, yet he doesn’t yet have a turf start. While I rarely question Brown’s moves, the horse doesn’t have very good turf breeding and I’m not sure this is the spot to see how well he can perform on the lawn. Puzzling for me, but I’ll take a stand against.
5. MADE YOU LOOK is trained by Todd Fletcher who is not well known as a turf trainer. He looked good in winning the With Anticipation, but he’s been off since then with a group of ordinary looking works to power his return. He may get a little action, but he’ll be a pass for me.
6. BIG SCORE is the best of the West Coast runners. For my money, the West Coast turf juveniles are generally a step below the east coast runners, although he did run a big one in the Zuma Beach. I’ll give him a small amount of respect given the home course advantage, but I don’t expect him to contend for the win.
7. J. S. CHOICE is another Pletcher runner. His first three starts were good, but he really has to up his game to compete in this group. Also ran status for me.
8. INTELLIGENCE CROSS is one of the Aidan O’Brien runners. He’s been in four consecutive Group races, although none beyond six furlongs. However, he is by War Front, an excellent distance turf sire, and shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. One down side for me is that he hasn’t yet negotiated two turns, and that is an important lesson for young runners to learn. Still, he’ll make my contenders list.
9. WELLABLED comes off of a sprint in the synthetic at PID where he earned a good number. He should be giving the favorite, Oscar Performance all he can handle on the front end. I expect him to get some early calls but not stay around to the end.
10. BOWIES HERO finished well back of Big Score and I’m not expecting enough improvement to be a contender here.
11. GOOD SAMARITAN won the Summer at Woodbine in good time for top turf conditioner Bill Mott. I like the running style and if he runs his best he has every chance to win the race.
12. RODAINI is a Euro shipper but he simply doesn’t look good enough to be a factor here.
13. OSCAR PERFORMANCE has two smashing wins in his last two races, including a six length score in one of the main preps for this, the Pilgrim. If you want to knock the horse you can focus on the pedestrian pace he set in the Pilgrim, especially since he should have to go a lot faster today. On the up side, we almost certainly haven’t seen the best he has to offer. Given the speed he’s shown, he should be able to overcome the outside post. Brian Lynch is a solid trainer with what might be a few and far between big horse, so expect him to have the horse wound up and ready to go.
14. TICONDEROGA is up against it coming from the far outside in this race, and that is the only thing that dampens my enthusiasm. He broke a little slowly in the G3 Bourbon, but was coming strongly at the end. It would have been nice to see Castellano stay for the ride, but Bejarano is one of the top jocks on the SoCal circuit and he knows the course very well, so the trade is not that negative. I say he lives up to the hope the owners had when they spent $850K on him.

Primary: 13 -14-11  Secondary 8-6

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

1. VYJACK has had a decent 2016, although both his wins were on the turf and he hasn’t won on the dirt in two years. He has prospects in the back holes, but won’t be a focus for me.
2. TOM’S READY ran well in the Ack Ack, but really seems a step below the best in here. Could pick up a few pieces in the stretch.
3. DORTMUND looks very strong in here. He’s got five wins and a second in six starts at SA, and is unbeaten at the distance. But, you say,  he hasn’t managed a win this year. True, but the horse who beat him three times is none other than California Chrome.  His wins have come with him first or second early in the race, and he’s not likely to have the lead today. But Dortmund is a real runner and he has a huge home course advantage. Hard to suggest he should be anything but the solid favorite.
4. POINT PIPER would be a real shock for me in here. He’s best coming from off the pace, but I can’t see him mowing down Dortmund and Runhappy in this one.
5. ACCELERATE is probably the slowest of the runners in here and doesn’t look to have serious outs.
6. TEXAS CHROME has run well against three year olds, winning his last three starts, but his figures suggest he is a cut below the best in here. Another that won’t get a lot of action from me.
7. RUNHAPPY is the clear speed in here. He was impressive in 2015, maintaining his form right through the Breeders Cup. Subsequently we had the drama of a trainer change and then a foot injury that kept him on the shelf most of this year. On the down side, he tried the mile twice and hasn’t cracked the top three. However, his race in the Ack Ack looked pretty good considering he’s been off 10 months, and he was only two and a half lengths from the win. He’ll have the lead on a speed favoring track, he’ll have a race under his belt, and other than Dortmund, he doesn’t have to beat a whole lot. The odds are unlikely to make him value, and the questions tell me he’d have to go off at double his morning line to interest me. Not a surprise if he wins, but not the best bet.
8. TAMARKUZ might be the biggest disappointment in the field. When he came here after winning the prestigious Godolphin Mile there were high expectations. But in six races since then he hasn’t been able to find the winners circle. This horse is a legitimate miler, and his poor record since then is perplexing. Given the two second place finishes in his last two, there is reason to have some optimism, but it would certainly be an upset if he crosses first. Demand big odds if you are thinking of going in that direction.
9. GUN RUNNER is the horse I see with the best chance of upsetting the top two. Other than an uninspiring run on a soupy MTH track in the Haskell, he really hasn’t run a bad race lifetime. He’s beautifully bred for the mile distance and he seems to be getting stronger as the year goes on. There is one other intangible that I believe is interesting. Two years ago on this track there was a rock solid favorite – Goldencents – who looked like he might get caught in the stretch by a Steve Asmussen horse – Tapiture. I’m thinking lightning just might strike twice.

Primary: 9-3-7  Secondary 8

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

For a number of years I was the Horseplayer Magazine handicapper for this race and I’ve had a lot of luck with Juvenile turf fillies. Unlike many of the other turf races on the BC card, this race has not been dominated by the Euros. In fact, the only year they looked good was the year they banned Lasix from the two year old races. But this year the Euros seem to be loaded in this race, and I’ll be giving them closer consideration.

1. HYDRANGEA goes for Aidan O’Brlen. She’s suffers from the same disadvantage many of the Euros do – no experience around turns. But she was a very close second in one of the primary Euro prep races, the Moyglare Stud Stakes as well as a good second in the Dubai Fillies Mile. Given the success in the top Euro stakes and with Aidan O’Brien training, she has to be put on the contenders list.
2. LULL finished second in the Jessamine, the final North American prep for this race. Jessamine winners have had good success in the BC, and while she didn’t get the top slot, she looked good her first time around two turns. She also gets an interesting switch to Rosario for this run. Secondary contender.
3. NEW MONEY HONEY won the primary North American prep for this race, the Miss Grillo at Belmont. In that race the fractions were very pokey, but she exploded in the last 5/16, running an eye popping 28 2/5. This puts her in the major contender category.
4. SPAIN BURG ran decently in Europe but she has the look of one of the lesser Euro’s to me. Not expecting her to be a factor.
5. VICTORY TO VICTORY won the Natalma at Woodbine, another one of the major preps for this race. However, I didn’t think this year’s Natalma was a particularly impressive race, and I’m putting  this horse in the minor contender category.
6. COASTED looked good winning the P G Johnson at SAR, but faltered with no real excuse in the Miss Grillo, other than she had the rail on a yielding turf course. She has potential to be a factor at very juicy odds.
7. INTRICATELY was the winner of the aforementioned Moyglare stud stakes. While that makes her worth considering, I believe she will be a little short today.
8. MADAME DANCEALOT has run his three group races with one win at a secondary track. She isn’t going to make the contenders list for me.
9. CAVALE DOREE ran in a couple of the better French preps, the Prix Marcel Boussac and the Prix du Calvados, winning the latter but being no threat in the former. Another that doesn’t look like a primary contender for me.
10. HAPPY MESA tried the Surfer Girl at SA and finished second. It’s been my opinion that the horses coming out of the West Coast Preps just aren’t as good as the Euros or the East Coast horses. Minor consideration for me.
11. RYMSKA set the slow fractions in the Miss Grillo and did not finish as you might have expected. She should be part of the pace picture, but she doesn’t make the list of contenders for me.
12. LA FORCE shipped over from Italy and made a start in the Surfer Girl. That wasn’t an impressive run, so unless the trainer was playing possum, she looks like a pitch to me.
13. ROLY POLY might be the better of the Aidan O’Brien runners. She has two wins and two seconds in her last four graded starts, but has the same question marks as the other Euros. She hasn’t negotiated the distance or the two turns. Still her breeding for the mile is impeccable and her figures are impressive. Can’t leave her out of the mix.
14. LA CORONEL earned a massive number in winning the Jessamine and beat the Miss Grillo winner New Money Honey when she broke her maiden. The biggest issue is going to be the outside post since she doesn’t normally show a lot of speed out of the gate. If she was in a better spot I think she might be the winner, but given the short run to the first turn and the big field, it’s going to take a perfect ride and timing to win this one.

Primary:  3-6-14  Secondary: 1-13-2

Breeders Cup Distaff

1. SONGBIRD is 11 for 11 lifetime, although she has not faced older horses yet. Still, she has some advantages here. She’s got plenty of early speed in a race where there other front runners, but no sort of “blow your brains out” horses, so she should be able to establish comfortably. She’s also 5 of 5 running at SA and will have no issue with the distance. But on the other side, she doesn’t look as fast as the two older contenders, although her last race was a lifetime top. No doubt she can win this race, but it will be the challenge of her career.
2. LAND OVER SEA looks overmatched to me, but it is a typical Reddam/O’Neill move to swing for the fences. This time I think they don’t make it past the warning track.
3. CURALINA is a nice stakes filly, but I think she’s up against some pretty tough customers in this one. Vertical possibilities, but she would be a surprise in the winners circle.
4. CORONA DEL INCA has had some success in Argentina, but it is very difficult to assess the horse’s chances. With no real insight, she’s a pass for me.
5. STELLAR WIND is excellent at Santa Anita and has beaten Beholder the last two times they faced each other, but that was at a shorter distance than they’ll run today. A very legitimate contender, but I think today might belong to Beholder.
6. FOREVER UNBRIDLED is another horse that belongs at the Grade 1 level, but just seems a step behind the best in this field. Underneath at best for me.
7. I’M A CHATTERBOX might be most likely to sneak into the trifecta but is another that just doesn’t seem good enough to beat  the top contenders here.
8. BEHOLDER holds the home field advantage here and has the advantage of being trained by the guy who seems to be Mr. BC in SoCal, Richard Mandella. That 13 wins in 15 starts at SA is a gaudy record and she’s got a lot of heart. It’s a close call for me, but I’ll put her on top.

Primary: 8-1-5  Secondary: 7-6-3