Race 1.  Not much of a race here. Starr Bear will go favorite in this race off the strength of her turf start at SAR. That gave her a figure well above any of the other horses that have started and that may be enough to propel her to victory. Sunday Gravy makes her fourth lifetime start and she improved in her last run. She adds blinkers today. Honor Way goes for Pletcher and Castellano. She ran well in her last, a maiden claimer, and steps up to MSW today. Primary 2-1A-4

Race 2.  This race looks wide open to me. Inventor’s Gate is listed at 12-1 on the ML but he’s been racing against better quality horses and producing good figures. Should be running at the front and has the ability to be strong in the stretch. Son of Oahu took a while to break his maiden but jumped up in price and ran well. I like the improvement and he appears to be in top shape. Steamboat Bill had a bit of a tough time getting out of the gate last out and actually had the lead in the stretch before getting run down. Certainly fits with this group. Primary 2-6-3  Secondary (1, 4, 7)

Race 3.  I’m Amazing has had two tough loses in a row, took a little over two months off, and comes back off a nice series of works. Winning Road makes his 2016 debut today. His figure from last year comes close to topping the field, and with a year of growth he could come back even better. May be the value. Tale of Mist has the best figures in the field, but is making his tenth start looking to break his maiden. Not an impossible task but at the odds not that exciting. Primary 2-6-1  Secondary (4)

Race 4.  Three Perfections was outfinished last race but that was only his second start. Should be able to better dictate his pace in this race and at 10-1 he’s as good as anything in the race.  Ballagh Rocks has been close in his last three and today could be the breakthrough day. T R Crew has been in the money in each of his last four and should appreciate the slight cutback in distance.  Primary 8-9-4  Secondary 2, 6)

Race 5.  Marble Falls should be the one to catch here. He makes a pretty good drop in price and the last time he was this low and this distance he was a winner. Good ML odds. You Know I Know won easily at this level and distance at SAR, came back at a slightly higher price and put in a good performance, and drops back in price today. Figures say he is a major contender. Attractive Ride has been knocking around at the level for a while. Veteran campaigner knows how to win and is worth a look as a price possibility.  Primary 10-7-1  Secondary (4, 5, 11)

Race 6.  Orecchiette had some issues at the start but nearly broke his maiden at first asking. Should have no issue with the added half furlong. Bellavais adds Lasix today after nearly winning his debut race. Fly Swift makes his third start for Clement and is a major contender with a clean trip. Primary 2-10-3  Secondary (5, 7, 8, 12)

Race 7.  This is a very difficult race and there are a lot of horses that you can make a case for. I’m going to start with Securitiz. He’s coming off a nice second place finish at this level. Last time he was at this distance he was a winner. Slim Shadey was claimed two back by Mitchell Friedman and finished second at this level for him. Irad Ortiz helps the cause. English Minister has trouble getting to the winner’s circle but always seems to be close at the finish. Good prospect in the verticals. Primary 10-9-6  Secondary (1, 2, 5, 7, 11)

Race 8.  This edition of the John Hertinger is very competitive. Fourstar Crook has a five race winning streak and that makes her tough to pick against. This may be her toughest test yet so I’ll make her a tepid favorite. Flipcup was entered yesterday but passed in favor of this spot. She was second to the top choice last out and could reverse the tables today, Old Harbor easily won a stakes at DEL last out. Could have done better in the Yaddo but the track was yielding that day. Has outs at good odds. Primary 2-3-5  Secondary (6, 7)

Race 9.  Kitty Madness gets a positive jockey switch to Irad and at the odds looks like the potential value.  Tiz Twice should be the speed in the field and has shown finish at the distance. Tepid choice for me. Belle Postiere ran well in her first in NA but didn’t show well in her second because of a troubled start. If she runs to her top figure she will be tough to keep out.  Primary 4-7-8  Secondary (6, 10)