Selections

Belmont June 11

I’m going to admit this was a horror of a day to try to handicap. More than half the races don’t have a favorite less than 3-1 on the ML.  Other than Cupid, Cathryn Sophia, Flintshire and Exaggerator, there are no solid favorites. A number of races only have one horse that has no chance given the ML. Doesn’t look like the right day to empty your pockets, but there may be some opportunities arise. In fact, the Belmont may be one of the better betting races of the day.

Race 1

  • 2  Cupid  1-1

  • 3  Rally Cry  2-1

  • 5  Economic Model  4-1

Race 2

  • 1  Lemon Drop Title  3-1

  • 6  Connect  3-1

  • 3  Wake Up in Malibu  4-1

Race 3

  • 5  Cathryn Sophia  8-5

  • 6  Go Maggie Go  3-1

  • 4  Carina Mia  7/2

Race 4

  • 2  Samraat  3-1

  • 7  Kid Cruz  4-1

  • 5  Turco Bravo  3-1

Race 5

  • 2  Stopchargingmaria  3-1

  • 5  Curalina  3-1

  • 6  Forever Unbridled  4-1

  • 7  Sheer Drama  5-1

Race 6

  • 11  Guns Loaded  3-1

  • 2  A Lot  7/2

  • 7  Green Mask  5-1

Race 7

  • 4  Justin Squared  7/2

  • 1  Sharp Azteca  4-1

  • 6  Seymourdini  5-1

Race 8

  • 5  My Miss Sophia  7/2

  • 1  Strike Charmer  4-1

  • 8  Celestine  4-1

  • 10  Faufiler  5-1

Race 9

  • 5  Frosted  3-1

  • 7  Stanford  4-1

  • 4  Noble Bird 9/2

Race 10

  • 10  Flintshire  2-1

  • 5  Big Blue Kitten  3-1

  • 6  Ironicus  4-1

  • 11  Divisidero. 5-1

Race 11

  • 11  Exaggerator  9/5

  • 2  Destin  4-1

  • 4  Suddenbreakingnews  9/2

  • 13  Creator  5-1

  • 10  Lani 5-1

This edition of the Belmont Stakes seems to be Exaggerator and everyone else.

  • Governor Malibu finished second in the Peter Pan three weeks ago. Having a race over the BEL track is usually an advantage, but he simply doesn’t look fast enough to be much of a factor in this race. He skipped the first two legs of the TC, not necessarily an advantage, and his breeding doesn’t seem suited to the mile and a half.
  • Destin went in the Derby and then passed the Preakness. There are a number of positives for this horse and I’ve put him right behind Exaggerator on the odds line. He was sired by Giant’s Causeway, a good stamina influence, so the mile and a half should not be a problem. He had an eight week layoff heading into the Derby, in most opinions simply too long. He’s got five weeks off coming into this race, maybe just about the right amount of time. One other thing in his favor – he has a strong win over the BEL dirt. He should be in a good pressing spot. He has real chances today.
  • Cherry Wine was a horse I did not like in the Preakness, but he proved me wrong there. I’m sticking with my opinion for the Belmont. He does not have the breeding nor the style for the mile and a half distance. Despite the sharp Preakness second, I’m not looking for him in the verticals here.
  • Suddenbreakingnews does not inspire me in the win slot, but I thought he ran pretty decently in the Derby and prior to that ran well in Arkansas. On the down side, he has the wrong style for the Belmont, but his breeding suggests a mile and a half shouldn’t be an issue. More likely in the verticals.
  • Stradivari has Todd Pletcher in his corner, but a top three finish would be a surprise in my opinion.
  • Gettysburg should be prompting the pace but he simply doesn’t look strong enough to make a dent here.
  • Seeking the Soul seems like a vanity entry, because his race record of three maiden starts and one win at a mile doesn’t suggest any chance in this stakes.
  • Forever d’Oro – see Seeking the Soul.
  • Trojan Nation came out of the slow Wood Memorial and ran as expected in the Derby. He’s still a maiden and this is not the place to break it.
  • Lani has a few positives in his favor. First, he’s very well bred for the distance. He is coming off a clunker in the Derby (expected) but showed improvement in the Preakness and improved his figure in that race. Given the paucity of real competition in this race, Lani cannot be dismissed as easily as he was in the first two legs of the TC.
  • Exaggerator will be a solid favorite in this race and deservedly so. His Derby was impressive, his Preakness outstanding. Is he vulnerable? Perhaps. His breeding is ok for this distance but his style does not fit the typical Belmont winner. Still, he’s been with the best and beaten the best and the field is not outstanding top to bottom.
  • Brody’s Cause won the Blue Grass, but was not particularly sharp in the KY Derby. He has the breeding but his style isn’t ideal. A very outside chance to make the verticals.
  • Creator had a troubled trip in the Derby and I’m willing to excuse that finish. He has the breeding , but unfortunately he is another one of the come-from-the-clouds horses. Still I think he has the talent to make an impact in the verticals.
  • It’s hard to bet against Exaggerator despite a nagging feeling there is not enough speed in this race to make it easy for him to unleash the patented close. However, he has enough talent and Desormeaux has enough experience to make sure the most talented horse in the race is in the right spot turning for home. I just keep coming back to Destin who might just be the best combination of speed and class. I also am thinking about slipping Lani into my verticals.

Race 12

  • 2  Gold Shield  3-1

  • 3  Inordinate  7/2

  • 4  Make a Decision  9/2

  • 6  Artic North  5-1

Race 13

  • 2  Amoral  3-1

  • 10  Watershed  3-1

  • 6  Cerro  4-1

  • 8  Manhattan Mischief  5-1