Selections

Saratoga August 6 – Late Pick-4

It isn’t that the pick-4 is outrageously unpredictable. It is more that each race seems to be divided into potential winners and very unlikely winners.

RACE 7

  • 1 Precarious was obviously over her head in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly stakes at Woodbine. She has consistent figures, but doesn’t seem to be more than an allowance runner on her best day. She has some negatives with regard to her willingness to hold a lead in the stretch. She has two unspectacular races on the Saratoga turf. She’s a contender but not rock solid.
  • 3 Lawn Party is one of the low start horses with plenty of upside. Todd Pletcher trains the 3YO. She finished behind the talented Sea Queen and Minorette in the Wonder Again and came back to run a nice race in her first start against older horses. She’s had a couple of maintenace workouts and gets the services of Johnny V. Solid contender and the top choice today.
  • 4 Satisfaction seems a step or two slower that the other runners. She put blinkers on for her last run  and still ran evenly around the track. She shows an early/pressing style, although her interior fractions have not been impressive. She’s been rested for three months and shows a bullet work in her last. She has room to improve but needs to show a bit more today.
  • 7 More Than Less came from the clouds to nail her maiden at Churchill.  The fact that Steve Assmussen trains is a positive, but given the lack of high early speed, if she employs the same tactics today she may not be able to run by the field in the stretch.
  • 11 Kitten’s Queen has been at this condition for a while. Castellano stays aboard and this is the third start off the bench this year. Michael Maker has had two starts to get her to the winner’s circle and is running out of time to vindicate his training efforts. Three starts on the SAR lawn have resulted in one 2nd place finish. Could win off her best, but starting to look like a career also ran.

RACE 8

  • 1 Middleburg has been competitive at this level for a while . She has  pace figures that put her right in the mix in this race.
  • 3 Casino Dan has a race over the SAR turf the same day as Joe’s Blazing Aaron. The later ran two seconds faster at the 3/4 and the mile, so Casino Dan did not have a lot of pace to run at. The pace should be faster today and that can only benefit Casino Dan.
  • 4 Joe’s Blazing Aaron was just claimed last out by Gary Contessa and he wheels the horse right back for a slightly higher price. He wired fields in his last two starts  and seems best suited for the mile distance, but there is enough speed in this race to make it problematic for him to settle comfortably in front. If Silver Streak scratches, he becomes much more dangerous.
  • 5 Battle Force has some impressive back class. He is graded stakes placed and has a useful comeback race on July 19 where is broke a little tardy but closed some into a moderate pace.  Shirreffs is not impressive second of a layoff, but I’m not letting that stop me. Top choice.
  • 6 Upgrade is a hard knocker who fits well with this group. Chad Brown is having his usual quality meet and Upgrade is one of the many contenders.  He has two starts on the SAR turf with no in the money finishes

RACE 9

  • 3 Bohemian Dance should have no trouble with the distance. She won an optional claimer first out in the states, and came back at Delaware in a stakes that was taken off the turf. While she is a filly going against the boys, she’s had success against males previously. She is a legitimate longshot play.
  • 5 Micromanage is one of the two Pletcher trainees. He has graded stakes experience but no races on the turf. He may be one Pletcher is keeping in the race in the event of rain.
  • 8 Winning Cause has raced almost nothing but graded stakes, and if you read my article on turf racing, you know I believe legitimate graded horses beat non graded horses. Pletcher and Velasquez team up for the try and despite the fact he hasn’t been to the winner’s circle in a year, I’ll make him the top choice.
  • 9 Grand Rapport has looked great in his turf races and has a race over the SAR turf already this year. In fact he has a win and two seconds at SAR. Another horse at odds with a legitimate chance.

RACE 10

  • 3 Island Therapy is a 9 start maiden who is developing the look of a professional in the money runner. Given he only has two turf starts, with one at SAR, I think he can be given one more shot. He certainly has the numbers to compete in this field.
  • 6 Blue Chips Only  is bound to be the controlling speed. Athough he doesn’t have any turf experience, he may take the lead and forget to stop. He is dropping from straight maidens and adds blinkers for this trip. A very interesting price horse.
  • 9 Copper Core puts blinkers on for small stable trainer Thomas Morley.  He does have a 20% winning rate and Copper Core just missed at this class in his last two. Top choice.