This year’s Kentucky Derby is difficult because even the clear favorite – Nyquist – has some negatives that could give bettors pause. On the other hand, in my opinion, the horses that could potentially win the race are few in number and there are a lot of horses I’m tossing completely. So what do we look for in a  Derby winner?

• First and most important are horses with a good foundation. That means some races as a two year old that set up the three year old season. Six races total seems to be the ideal number.
• Graded victories.  If a horse hasn’t proven it can win or finish second against Grade 1 animals, it’s not likely to start doing so in the Derby.
• Tactical speed. There are 20 horses in the Derby. If a runner doesn’t get a good attacking position by the time the real running starts he may be out of the race.
• Breeding. Regardless of the diminishment of dosage, horses still need to have the right genes for a mile and a quarter in May.
• Ability to run well late. If a horse can’t finish, his chances in the Derby are significantly lowered.
• Taking to Churchill Downs. The track seems to be one that some horses don’t run well on. Check the workouts to see if the horses seem to get into the Churchill surface.
• Which horses are likeliest to be first or second at the eighth pole? 95% of the time one of the horses first or second at the eighth pole will be the winner.

Given those factors, I’ve divided the field into A, B and C runners. A runners have the highest probability of winning. B runners are less likely to win, but good probabilities of running in the money. C runners don’t look good enough to be part of the verticals.

Let’s start with the C horses (in post position order).

C Horses

• Trojan Nation is still a maiden, and although he finished second in the Wood, I’m generally discounting the horses coming out of that race.
• Suddenbreakingnews is a deep closer stuck in a rail position. He should get shuffled well back early, circle and make a run. I just don’t think it will be enough. His finish in the Arkansas Derby was not particularly fast and his figures are not that impressive overall.
• Mo Tom has beaten Grade 3 horses in Louisiana, but his last two preps really give me no reason to believe the horse will improve enough to be a factor here. 
• My Man Sam finished second in the Blue Grass, although that race has not been productive in a while. Of course, that was when the race was run on the synthetic. Still, a horse eligible for a NW2L just can’t get me excited in this race.
• Oscar Nominated did win the Grade 3 Spiral on the synthetic at Turfway, but otherwise he has very little to recommend him.
• Whitmore comes out of Arkansas with a couple of in the money finishes in the two Derby preps. His style looks like he’ll be toward the back of the pack and while he might be running at the end, I just can’t see him passing enough horses to be a factor.
• Tom’s Ready jumped up to second in the Louisiana Derby. That was a new top for him, but other than that race he doesn’t look anywhere near fast enough.
• Shagaf went into the Wood as the favorite and did nothing to enhance his Derby changes. While Chad Brown is an amazing trainer, I don’t think even he will get the horse to improve enough to be a factor here. His final three eighths was dreadfully slow and he doesn’t have a figure that suggests any competitiveness.
• Majesto finished second to Nyquist off a single win in his maiden race. Perhaps he’s on the improve, but I just can’t see him being a factor in this one.
• Danzig  Candy looks like a need to lead speed horse and at some point should be in front. Eventually he will get swallowed. Not a real prospect for me.

B Horses

• Lani comes out of the UA Derby with a pretty slow figure. This may be my bias, but I can’t give a horse shipping from Tokyo to Meydan to Churchill much of a chance to win the race. I believe this horse needs more time off to recover from the travel, and his works at Churchill are not really eye-catching. Still, the horse is by the pre-eminent sire Tapit and has negotiated the distance. I didn’t want to toss him completely, but I’m more reluctant than enthusiastic about his chances.
• Destin won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and before that the SF Davis. On class, it would be hard to argue he is the equal of the higher rated horses, but on the positive side he is getting better with each start. However, I wound up putting him in the B category because he is the Pletcher/Castellano entrant, he’s nicely bred for the distance, and he’s beaten a couple of other horses I have in the B category.
• Mohaymen achieved favoritism in the Florida Derby and simply flopped. You have two choices here. Put a line through the race, assuming the horse wasn’t right that day, or assume he finally met some real competition and was exposed as a pretender. I’m taking the middle road. Moyhamen’s races prior to the Florida Derby were excellent. He showed decent speed, and plenty of closing kick. His figures from those races would put him in the mix in this field. His breeding is impeccable – Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare. Still I can’t completely excuse what happened in Florida, especially considering he finished in pedestrian time. It’s not often I’d say a horse listed at 10-1 ML might be underlayed, but Mohaymen just might be that horse.
• Outwork misses out on the A rating for a few reasons. One, that Wood Memorial race really looked dreadful on paper. All the horses came home in time that in some years would make them Dereby throwouts. He did break his maiden as a two year old, but after that early 2015 start it took him until February of this year to return. He misses on a few of the key factors, but he seems to be improving quickly and wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the verticals.
• Mor Spirit is a Grade 1 winner, and he did finish second in the SA Derby. He’s somewhat ambiguous for me. His finishing 3/8 is not what I look for in a Derby contender, and while his sire is by Giant’s Causeway, and his dam is by Dixie Union, he still doesn’t look like as much of a mile and a quarter horse for my taste. On the plus side, he always gives an honest effort and he has a nice race over the Churchill surface. He’s Bob Baffert’s only runner and I have to expect hell be putting plenty of training skill into getting him ready for the Derby.
• Brody’s Cause has the talent, but may be up against it here. He’s a plodder breaking from the 19, meaning he’ll have to duck to the rail early and circle the entire field. He was thrashed by Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby but did come back in the Blue Grass. He’s got a win over the CD dirt, has excellent breeding, has a good 3/8 time in the Blue Grass, and was a decent third to Nyquist in last year’s BC Juvenile. Not awesome, but I couldn’t leave him out.

A Horses

• Creator took a while figuring out what it was all about. Two months ago he was still a maiden, but showed some talent in the Rebel and fully came to hand in the Arkansas Derby. He’s regally bred for the distance and I like the way Asmussen has brought him to the race. On the down side, it’s harder to imagine he’ll get the same perfect trip he got in the Arkansas race. He’s breaking from an inside post and he’s adopted a deep closing style, which means he should get shuffled back early and will have to work to find the right trip. Intentions count, but in his case it may also take a lot of luck.
• Gun Runner should get out early enough to establish a good tracking spot. He should have plenty of stamina – he’s by Candy Ride out of a Giant’s Causeway mare. He’s got the right pattern – three races as a two year old and then sharp improvement as a three year old. He swept the Louisiana preps, and while they are generally a step or two below the other major preps, with a little improvement he could be the surprise of 2016.
• Exaggerator destroyed the field over a sloppy track in the SA Derby,  running a really impressive final three eighths. He’s got plenty of bottom off his dam side and a ton of racing experience. Another one that is dependent on finding the right spot and getting the right pace. He’s certainly a much greater prospect on a wet track, but he shouldn’t have any trouble with the fast dirt. He’s on the improve and has to be given contender respect.
• Nyquist is the race favorite and is completely deserving. He’s got four grade 1 wins and a couple of grade 2’s. He’s beaten a number of today’s competitors, his figures are uniformly impressive, and He should be in a dream spot when it comes time to start the real running. So what’s the down side? First, Uncle Mo is a fairly new sire so his distance ratings are probably more tentative, and his dam sire Forestry was a dead solid sprinter. Second, while he won the Florida Derby comfortably, he was a bit eratic in the last eighth of a mile. But trainer Doug O’Neill says he is thriving at Churchill and his workouts were designed to make sure the mile and a quarter doesn’t stop his undefeated run. In some years he might be shaky as the favorite, but in this field all the other horses are just as ambiguous. Finally, there is a great amount of pressure on Mario Gutierrez. Gun Runner, Outwork, Shagaf, and Danzig Candy should all be winging for the lead, and a couple of them may turn out to make the pace ultra-hot. Gutierrez will have to use all his skill to make sure the favorite doesn’t get fried in a pace battle and has plenty left for the stretch run. If he’s on a hot pace, then what happens in the stretch is very much up in the air.

Nyquist is the obvious favorite, and it really is hard to make a compelling case for any of his rivals. You have maidens, horses eligible for NW2L races, and horses that haven’t beaten top graded company. You have horses that looked like Derby favorites fall by the wayside in their final preps, and the best excuses we are given are that you just have to ignore that race. You have horses that seem to be getting better by leaps and bounds. And then you have Nyquist, a horse that has done nothing wrong in his career and has more graded wins than any two other horses combined. His big strikes are breeding that at the moment doesn’t look like it’s the best for a mile and a quarter, some speed to keep him honest near the lead, and some excellent closers who should be charging hard in the stretch. But I can tell you that Doug O’Neill knows exactly how to get a horse ready for the Derby and he’s had a plan for Nyquist since last year. I have to trust that he’s executed the plan to perfection and it is up to Nyquist to run the winning race at this point. He’s going to get bet, so the way to make money if you put him on top is to find some exotic bets.

My advice – I’ve given you a couple of other A horses and a group of B horses and it should be clear which ones I think are most likely. Assume a fair pace, and assume Nyquist will relax in the right spot to make his stretch run. And if you aren’t willing to do that, well I guess you’ll be taking your chances with to closers coming to the race in top shape.