Race 1.     1-7-5

The first race represents the first of a lot of tough races to handicap. Spooked Out is one of the horses with a tendency to stay close to the pace. He gets the Pletcher/Velasquez combo and one thing I really liked – he broke his maiden by almost 10 lengths on this track. If he holds up in the front he’s the one to beat. Celtic Chaos is coming off a win and did beat the top choice in that race. He’ll be coming off the pace and there may be just enough speed to set the race up for him. Scorecard Harry took a while to break his maiden but ran a good one when he finally did. He’s got a little bit of natural speed and seems strong in the stretch. His figure is a little lighter than a couple of these, but he’s not without a chance.

Race 2.     4-3-7

American Creed has been popular at the claim box and in his first race for DJ just missed winning at the same level as today. Off his best he’s competitive and may go off at a decent price. Bass River Road has been hanging around mainly with state-bred optional claimers and his last two races have been good from a figure standpoint. The drop down to $25K should only be in his favor. Jeter does well on the AQU main and seems to be nearing the top of his form cycle.

Race 3.     4-1-2

Madefromlucky flopped in the Donn and in his last on the AQU slop, but he’s had some good distance races and he may turn out to be able to set his own pace. Certainly capable of a Grade 3 win. Turco Bravo is 6 of 7 first or second at this distance and won the Stymie with a nice stretch move. A little bothersome that winning rider Manny Franco goes elsewhere, but given his current condition he has to be considered Kid Cruz has a win and a second in two races on the AQU main. Has a 33% win percentage, but lately he seems more inclined to finish second. Worth a look but probably not value at the ML.

Race 4.     4-1-5-11

Happyness ships over from Europe and Chad Brown is very good with Euro shippers. Looks like one that will be coming strong lately. Chrysolite has consistent turf figures – one of the few in this race to have clear turf form. She’s done well off the layoff previously and David Donk does well off the layoff. Theresas Canyrose has tried to break through at the NW1X, but what I like is that her turf races have provided her best figures. Morethanawarning race decently at GP and hasn’t done badly on the AQU turf. One of the group in here with prospects.

Race 5.     5-3-2-7

Still Krz has been running well since coming off of the WO synthetic, has some ability to push the pace and has a win in two tries at the distance. Little Popsie is on a three race win streak and his figures have stayed consistent. Should be the one to catch. Rectify is 2 for 2 on the AQU main and 2 of 4 at the distance. The switch back to the main should be a plus. Hey Bro seems to be always in the mix at the end and could be part of the vertical here.

Race 6.     7-2-6-10

Iromea was flying late in the Tropical Park Oaks and picked up a good number. She’s done well since coming to the U.S. (and still isn’t using Lasix). We have no idea how the turf will be playing, but if closer’s are doing well she’s the best of that bunch. Tapitry comes off a layoff but has done well off the layoff previously. McGaughey does well off the long layoff and that last work is eye-catching. Off Limits ran well in her last after hesitating at the start and steadying. Another Euro shipper for Chad Brown and if she runs a clean race she’s a big factor. Gap Year has been in an out, but off her best race she wouldn’t be a total surprise.

Race 7.     8-11-3-1

Sharpie’s Dream is 20-1 on the ML. Perhaps that is because Ferraro is not having a great year and Camacho hasn’t had a win this year, but the horse great front speed and finished with a good figure last out. At any sort of odds you have to give him a look. Mind Your Biscuits has been off since last year and switched trainers. He ran well first time out, has solid numbers and gets Irad to take the ride. Benevolence gets Lasix off a decent third despite going wide on the far turn. Is one of a few who have a competitive figure. Brooklyn Major is making his fifth start, has shown some ability to finish close, and at the odds may make a nice vertical.

Race 8.     1-6-2

Clair de Lune has two powerful wins in a row and has a dominant last race figure. Behrnik’s Bank blew away two fields in PA and ran a good race in a state-bred stakes. Plenty of speed and is better than the 15-1 ML suggests. Lewis Bay has already won a grade 2 race and ran respectably in the Davona Dale. Very legitimate win prospects.

Race 9.     8-5-6

This is a very competitive version of Bay Shore, and there are a half dozen horses for which you can make a case. I see very little separation between the top contenders.Richie the Bull ran very well in the Swale. His last work was swift and his figures say he’s competitive with any horse in here. At 8-1 he’s on the consideration list. Unified just broke his maiden a few ticks off the track record and will likely go favorite. The works after that race have been very good and a great case can be made for him as the winner. Cocked and Loaded is a legitimate Grade 3 runner and looked good against KY Derby early favorite Nyquist in the BC Juvenile. His 2YO numbers alone make him competitive and if he has grown and is ready to run he’s primed for an upset.

Race 10.  1-6-8-2

This year’s version of the Wood comes up with a so-so field. Shagaf looks like the stickout off his win in the Gotham. If he takes to the main, he looks like the main contender. Matt King Coal has a lot of front running calls in his four starts. Speed is always dangerous and we’ll see if he passes this big test today. Outwork comes off a second in the Tampa Bay Derby and may give King Coal a run up front. Improving horse for Pletcher. Adventist finished third in the Gotham and should be one of the horses looking to pick up the pieces if the leaders falter.

Race 11.  5-3-2

The Carter is another competitive race. While Salutos Amigos hasn’t been dominant, he’s still a graded stakes runner and looks like he appreciated being back  in NY. Should have no trouble with the 7F distance. Dads Caps takes the blinkers off for RuRod and is the defending champ in this race. Likes this distance and likes the AQU main. Majestic Affair just missed in the General George at Laurel at this distance. That race earned a top figure and he should be a major contender.

Race 12.  6-7-11 

Caldera ships back from SA for DJ.  He’s shown some talent on the turf and if the SA figures transfer he’s a primary contender. Big Gilette has shown good speed in his races on the dirt, and in his one turf race on this course he only finished two lengths away from the winner. Worth a look at the odds. Vulcan’s Page has to overcome the outside post, but should be one of the ones coming at the end.